Draft a POWER forward, please.
by chrischa on Jun 14, 2009 11:34 AM PDT
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PrintAt this point of the offseason, I think you can either write about draft strategy according to what you WANT to happen or what you THINK will happen. I guess I'm just gonna try to write what makes sense.
Bayless seems to have a lot of support from the team right now and it appears the organization is invested in him. It wouldn't be a stretch to assume that he will be the backup pg (not that he will be awarded the position, he still has to earn it this summer) next season behind Blake, regardless of where Sergio is playing basketball. Speaking of Blake, KP didn't think twice about picking up the team's option on his contract and given that KP admitted to literally crying the first time he traded Blake to Milwaukie I would be absolutely shocked if he gets traded this offseason. He's limited for sure, but his numbers are solid and his contract is appropriate. Sometimes I think the need for a super PG gets overblown anyway. The bottom line is, you need really good players. Doesn't matter what position they play. If your SF or PF (randomly selected positions) are superstars, you can win championships surrounding them with role players. Its about the player, not the position.
Anyway, you could trade assets to move up in the draft for a guy like Stephen Curry (a jumpshooting tweener guard) or I suppose you could go after that mythical "veteran PG." I mentioned Stephen Curry because there has been some rumored interest but it could be any number of rookie PG's. The point is, it doesn't look like the team is going to trade Bayless. Or Blake. Drafting a rookie PG for Nate to NOT play doesn't make much sense right now. Now I could maybe see them shipping out one of those guys for an all star caliber PG (maybe on the tail end of his career) but I just don't see another team making that type of deal. What would be realistic would be going after a player like Rafer Alston who is playing in an NBA Finals right now. His numbers won't jump out at you but he's an experienced guard who will be AVAILABLE at the end of the season (given Jameer Nelson's return). So picking up a player of his caliber sounds reasonable but is it realistic given our current PG situation?
I'm not going to spend a whole lot of time talking about the 2, 3, and 5 spots. I'll just say this, we have 3 serviceable SF's right now. We don't know what Martell is going to give us coming off that serious an injury, we don't know how much growth Batum is going to have from year 1 to 2, and we don't know if Travis will ever decide to show up to camp in shape, learn to rebound, and play TEAM defense. But the bottom line is, the SF is not a position of weakness. Between all 3 of those question marks, I'd be surprised if none of them panned out. and I'm not gonna bother talking about depth on a 2 headed center monster and a SG who plays 40+ minutes a game.
We're down to the PF position. LA seems to be right on track as far as player development and he's already a borderline allstar who is playing 30+ minutes a night. I don't think there are too many people in Portland who think Channing is going to be around next year and as much as I would like Shav to have a shot at some of those leftover minutes, I just don't think its in the cards. So you can either draft a back up or you can go find one. You look at KP's record and tell me what you think he's going to do given those 2 choices? This is a draft stocked with quality PG prospects but very light on big men. It may take some assets to move up but Sergio, Travis, cash and future first rounders are all easily expendable at this point and should be enough to move up in a relatively weak draft to get the player KP has surely targeted since 1995. I'm not sure who to draft, just what to draft. I think if you look at what we need (rebounding, mental and physical toughness, smart defender, ability to score in the low post) you can identify a few prospects.
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Assuming Sergio is gone, we need a third point guard
To deal with injuries, if nothing else. I have no preference how we get that guy. If we do get a point somehow, I have no problem drafting a power forward. That being said, I wouldn’t mind drafting a third center for depth purposes either. Injuries happen, and if Pryzbilla goes down, then Greg goes under extreme pressure not to get into foul trouble without a serviceable backup. I understand that we can slide LMA over, but I don’t think that’s more than an emergency plan, as our defense would suffer – Portland’s defense seems predicated on having an enforcer in the middle to protect our guards on the drive. Heck, I wouldn’t even mind bringing back Steven of Nazareth for that purpose.
Anyway, I do think point and back-up capable of playing the 5 are a priority, and would also like to see someone capable of playing the 4 for depth purposes as well, but don’t think that any one of those positions needs to be “targeted”. Take the best player available between the three positions.
If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer
by Clevelander among roses on Jun 14, 2009 12:02 PM PDT reply actions
not to mention didn't steve have the best per in the league last year.
"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein
by Garden of ODEN on Jun 14, 2009 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions
There are not that many left
Basically Griffin and Hill way at the top. Blair, Johnson, Daye (I think he will ultimately be a SF) in the midfield. Mullens who is a C with his game although he likes to compare himself to some top PFs. Clark and Hansbrough to close out the first round. Gibson, Heytvelt, Pendergraph, Macvan in the second round.
The rest are all rather SFs than PFs a la Travis. Gani Lawal just pulled out. The big man crop this year isn’t very good. Blair is the only one left I would want in the first round, and maybe Gibson or Macvan in the second round.
I absolutely have no problem going with just a 2nd rounder this year.
with such a weak draft I don’t see a whole lot of difference between the names from the mid 1st round through the second.
its kind of funny because guys that people want like milsap and bass are 2nd rounders but people think you have to dig into the lottery to get a quality player. remember folks, we’re talking about someone who is going to be stuck behind LA for the next 7 years…
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
What are your thoughts on Pendergraph?
he seems like he compares well to backup bangers (I am starting to hate that term) from other teams that we seem to covet.
I dont know much about him beyond what I have read on draftexpress.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
I have no real opinion for or against him
He is efficient, average rebounder, size and reach/wingspan is okay, could probably still add some weight/muscle although he isn’t weak already. Would mostly score off putbacks and passes close to the bucket a la Joel. I would fear our front court offense doesn’t create much if he an Joel would be in the game, enabling the defense to cover the wing players tightly. Blair owned him in a workout video for the Kings. He measured very fast in a straight line but had a bad lane agility drill, so probably he is not the quickest defender when coming into the league (interestingly about the same value as LaMarcus, who improved a lot in this category – and is taller).
Trade with GS
for the rights for Richard Hendrix [ 6’-7" (250# – 7’3" wingspan)].
Salary for 2009/10 = $100,00 (cheap).
In 37 games with the Jam, Hendrix averaged 14.6 points, 11.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1 steal and 1.6 blocks in 31.5 minutes per contest. He was named to the 2009 NBDL All-Star Game on February 3, 2009.
by spencerbutte on Jun 15, 2009 2:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Good break down by Norkstroll
For the 2nd round talent, I would add Sutton from Michigan St in there. He’s not very mobile or athletic, but he’s big, productive, can rebound, and has good shooting range for a 6’10" big guy. He would be a fine replacement for Frye.
I like Gibson as a 2nd round pick in the draft but he really needs to gain some bulk to be effective for the blazers.
By MacVan, I hope you are referring to the re-emergence of Jim Mcllvaine in the NBA. He stirred up a lot of excitement among sonics fans for a brief period and I would definitely encourage KP to re-draft that monster.
No, Macvan is a 19 year old Croatian - who will probably pull out and try again in 2010
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Milan-Macvan-1356/
He had a pretty impressive performance in the Nike Hoop Summit this year according to e.g. Ben’s report (23 points, 14 boards). But he is a project, probably a few years away from making a real NBA impact and until then playing in Europe. http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/4/12/832139/nike-hoop-summit-recap
I would prefer to sign a free agent PF
Bass is my preference or Powe if he heals well. Then use the draft for a PG for later and maybe another PF/C. I would like to see Travis stay as a 3/4, but not first off the bench for either, unless Martell needs more time to heal. Collison seems pretty good as a pure point if we get a PG for a couple years down the road or if Bayless doesn’t work out.
Me too
A known quantity veteran journeyman banger who stays in front of his man and clogs up the middle on defense could do a lot to stabilize this team. Too many times, that is just what we were missing off the bench.
I do not think that the draft can give us that now. Bigs develop more slowly. Where are picks are, we would probably just be taking a chance or investing a couple years in another project. It’s fine to do that if that is the best pick available. But if we do, let’s get that journeyman guy for now in free agency. There are any number of respectable guys out there plus those as you mention that could be freed up with a trade.
Trade Draft pick for a future 1st rounder
Free up some money by getting rid of your draft pick and sergio for future draft picks and sign a nice backup PF via free agency or in a lopsided trade using Travis, draft a 3rd PG in the second round or bring over Pettri
Draft Cole Aldrich 2010
my poll kinda sucks
in that it only allows for single actions. I guess the title shouldn’t be “whats your strategy,” it should be “whats your priority”
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
target Blair
I like this deal, though I’m not sure what Indy’s needs are
Travis, Sergio and #24
for Jeff Foster and Indy’s #1 pick, if Blair is still on the board
I’m not sure much more needs to be said, Blair could backup LMA and Foster would provide toughness and a veteran PF/C to fill in when needed, while teaching the other Portland big men all about getting into the head of your opponent
not deterred by the reports
that say Blair’s knees look like an 80 year old man’s?
I’m exaggerating but he had some serious red flags in that physical.
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
Blair doesn't need to get off the ground all that much to play his game
Rebounding translates better than any stat in basketball, and Blair is among the best college boarders in the history of the game. He gets over 8 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes. Every 5th minute… it’s just an incredible skill. In his workouts it appears like he can hit the mid range which would be a really nice skill to have on the second unit next to Przybilla. The reason you want a guy like Blair next to Przy is that Joel isn’t really that great on the offensive glass because he’s not all that quick, and this would give you an elite boarder on each side of the game. Guys like Antonio McDyess and Brandon Bass bring the much better offensive skill set but neither can really bang down low like Blair will be able to do from day one.
Throw in the cheap contract he’d have for 5 years and his age and he’s a great player to have long term. He’d even fit pretty well next to LaMarcus if we choose to go small. I prefer Bass, but it might take too much maneuvering of the cap to make something like that happen. Blair could come as cheaply as #24 and Sergio, which is near gold just on the basis we were planning to lose Sergio regardless this offseason. You’d like to get it done without throwing in Outlaw, but if push came to shove I’d throw him in there as well. Foster would be a really nice 5th frontcourt player backing up both spots, if this had to be the deal.
A 6'7" PF doesn't need to get off the floor very much?
Maybe not in college, but he’s gonna be playing against 7-footers every night in the NBA.
It's all about positioning with him...
His wingspan and standing reach are in the top 10 percent of the league.
He's got a pretty big wingspan
(sixth in his class), but there are 34 guys in his class who have a higher standing reach (including a bunch of guards) and 15 with a higher max vert reach.
There are questions about whether this guy is big enough to play at all, let alone big enough to play flat-footed.
Not that I don't think Blair can succeed in the NBA
Jason Maxiell is 6’7" and plays pretty well. I just question the idea that a guy that size can play PF well without getting off the floor.
There are no guards with a higher standing reach than Blair
your list is wrongly ordered which is why it’s so confusing.
Blair’s standing reach is 8’10.5". Take a look down through the list and you’ll see the discrepancy.
Rudy Gay has the 3rd best max vert reach in the history of the combine and he’s a worse rebounder than Travis Outlaw.
Well . . .
That makes more sense. Nice catch. My bad.
Still, I think my point largely stands: he’s going to be competing against bigger guys who will be jumping for boards, etc. If he isn’t jumping, he’s gonna be a lot less effective. I don’t see him trying to play flat-footed in hopes of preserving his knees.
Max vert reach is not the most important part of being a PF, but it is important and a PF how can’t jump or can’t trust his knees probably won’t be very effective.
You’d like to get it done without throwing in Outlaw
Sure, if that’s possible. I’d do the deal without Foster being included (but I’d still like that badass on the roster, and if Outlaw’s salary was included KP would still have some cap-space leftover to possibly upgrade the PG position)
Besides, with Blair on board, there are no PF minutes for Trav
Checkmate
I guess I'm not understanding how that deal would work...
Foster makes 3 million more this year than Outlaw, so technically we’d have less cap room right?
Even with Blair there would be the occasional minutes Outlaw would deserve when we wanted to run small ball. Even if it’s just on a rare occasion. I don’t think this free agent crop of point guards is worth much. What is the plus minus on the trade overall after free agency?
per ESPN trade machine
Foster 5.5 mil (3 years)
Outlaw 4 mil
Sergio 874k
Unless Foster’s due to get a big raise in 2010, this deal would costs KP less than a mil off his available cap-space. He should still have 5+ mil left to pursue a PG
We’d be doing Indy a big favor taking on Foster’s contract. Surprisingly, Hollister’s net gain for Portland is +1 win
Once July 1st hits
Outlaw is 3.6 and Sergio is 1.6. Foster will be 6.1, so we end up having 1 million less to spend.
If we held onto Koponen and Freeland’s rights we’d be at 54.5 million or 4.2 million under the cap. We’d essentially just have our exceptions left (MLE, BAE, TE).
And they'd have to pay Blair
whatever slot money he’s allocated at #13
Oh well, it was worth a shot. If Indy will take Sergio and #24 (plus a 2nd rounder, etc) for #13, it would still be a coup. I noticed that they’ve got two overpriced PGs TJ Ford and Tinsley) as well as some combo guard named “Jack”…so I’m not sure if they have much interest in adding Rodriguez, either
Maybe I’ll try to work something out with the Nets for #11…that will have to be a real blockbuster because you know I’ll be going after Devin Harris, as well! Your man Rudy will just have to get used to living in Jersey. Stay tuned
OK, here goes...the Nets send Devin Harris and the #11 pick
To Portland, for
Rudy, Sergio, Blake and Outlaw (plus the #24, and 2nd round picks, etc)
Oh, BTW we’d also have to take Najera’s contract, but for Harris AND Blair, it would be worth it, eh?
Harris is base year, so the deal would have to be completed after July 1st.
Why would NJ do it? I dunno, maybe they’d turn around and renounce Blake/Outlaw and bank the savings of Najera and Harris’ 4 and 5 year contracts? No, they’re probably not shopping Devin…but Rudy is a decent commodity with a very affordable contract…who knows?
Not quite....
we’d need to take back Vince. I’ve thought of this very idea.
There only commitment for next year right now is Vince Carter at 17.5 million and Devin Harris at 9.0 million.
Right now they have options on Yi Jianlian (4.0), Brook Lopez (2.4), Sean Williams (2.5), Ryan Anderson (1.4) and Chris Douglas-Roberts (0.9).
For them to go rip a hole in free agency, they need to be 51.3 million under the salary cap (so they can get 3 max free agents). Lets assume next year the cap goes up to 60 million. That means they can only have 8.7 million in cap used. We have a bunch of guys that would work for them. Rudy at (1.2), Batum at (1.1), and Bayless at (2.2).
So we send those 3 guys out along with a re-signed Raef to make up the difference.
They would have LeBron (17.1), Bosh (17.1) and Wade (17.1) to go with this crew of youngsters.
Rudy (1.2), Batum (1.1), Bayless (2.2), Lopez (2.4), Anderson (1.4) and CDR (.9). Then you could add in 3 super vets looking to win a ring and they’re set.
Anyways… I just did this because I really doubt they’d do your deal. They’d still have VC’s 18 million dollars (54 total owed) meaning they’d only have enough for 1 max and 1 slightly less than max deal.
Put them 3 max players under and I think Jay-Z can sell that trio on that team.
I remember that 51 mil "goal"
And Norsk (or someone) said that they have to keep 12 players under contract or they’d get punished by the league office
Well, what about KP’s 2nd round draft choices? NJ could pick those up in the deal and sign 4 kids for the league minimum, satisfying the requirement for having 12 players under contract
There only commitment for next year right now is Vince Carter at 17.5 million and Devin Harris at 9.0 million.
What about Najera? Does he have a club option? ESPN said he’s got 4 years to go, that sounds ridiculous
Najera and Dooling have not fully guaranteed contracts (like Blake and Outlaw)
The minimum contract next year for rookie free agents is 450 grand. If you have 5 of those guys and Lopez, Anderson, CDR and Rudy you could then sign yourself LeBron, Bosh and Wade. After that, you could go sign as many minimum vets as you want (and lots of players would want in on that).
I know it’s the biggest hypothetical ever, but if I were Jay-Z I’d write a song about it. No players names, just the cap situation and playing with 3 HoF ballerz, or however he would word that.
Anyway, back to #11. If they traded down to #24 that’d save them an extra million.
I don’t think this free agent crop of point guards is worth much.
Agreed, I was thinking more about an unbalanced deal. Of course with Sergio/Outlaw hypothetically off the table you’d be looking at something like Norsk’s “Blake+capspace for Hinrich” proposal (Steve’s 4 mil + 5 mil cap-space = Kirk’s 9 mil)
But I’m not expecting KP to deal Blake, maybe he’s got something else up his sleeve
You have to be really tight with your numbers doing it that way
so you can both afford him, but you’re not so much under the cap you lose your exceptions. Draft day deals seem much safer.
wait
so you don’t need knees to play basketball? :)
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
Lloyd Neal
Had a pretty nice career on a pair of rusty hinges. And nowadays the surgical procedures are so much more advanced than back when “Bottom” roamed the lane. If the Blazers draft Blair and it turns out he needs microfracture surgery (down the road) and he has to sit out a year like Oden did, it would still be worth the draft pick. Because the young man has a rare talent that Portland needs to complement LMA, and this draft is so weak the chances of getting a long-term contributer are pretty slim. MIght as well move up and take the BPA, that’s KP’s MO
That was known for a long time
Since we don’t need him as a starter, I wouldn’t be overly concerned.
I actually liked hearing those reports
It reminds me of the Batum heart-problems from last year
What did Sheridan call it? “Proclivity towards subterfuge”
Gimme some more of that, if it means D-Blair drops into KP’s draft basket like low-hanging fruit
Agreed
kids isn’t going to play more than 10 to 15 minutes per game anyway. And if he did all of what he did on bad knees then all the more impressive. It seems like too good of a fit not to happen. I know there’s a proclivity to get veteran “toughness” but you’re not going to find a tougher guy than Blair. He’s NBA ready right this second.
with an oden thet doesnt get 5 fouls in 6 min
Am i the only one that likes the gregzilla lineup? i would love to see more of oden and pryzbilla playing at the same time. and if oden could stay out of foul trouble it would be nice to see him getting his minutes and billa still getting minutes too. tehn we can bring over joel#2 and if oden or billa goes down with fouls we still have joel#2 for garbage minutes.
fire nate before its too late
When is LMA going to play
I think we could play that lineup with our second unit better if we draft a 3pt shooter to play PG. Maybe trade up in the draft since we saw Gani Lawal is going back to college and draft Stephen Curry.
Then we could have Oden or Przybilla kick it out to our 3pt shooters like Rudy, Steph Curry, and Webster assuming that we use Outlaw in a trade to get Steph Curry
I like the concept of the twin towers
Not every night, or against every team. But when the matchups are favorable it’s a good way to give LMA a blow and get more PT for Joel/Greg. As Oden improves (and learns to stay out of foul trouble) he’s going to play more and more and this will cut into Joel’s minutes. Przy isn’t at the point of his career where he needs to “cut back” yet, so one way to keep Przy at his regular PT and increase Greg’s role is to play them both together. It will be great for interior defense and rebounding, but on the offensive end the lane will get clogged up, since neither center has any perimeter game to speak of.
Like I said, Nate will have to pick his spots with this combo. But we saw it against Boston and again in the playoffs so we know the coaching staff is not adverse to the concept
I'm still of the mindset that having two true pivotmen on the court simultaneously bogs down the ...
offense. That aside, though, I’d love to have three true pivotmen on the roster; yet, playing two back-to-the-basket players at the same time is a disaster waiting to happen out there.
IF you add another 3 pt shooter
then it wouldnt bog down the offense. Put in all of our fire power at the wings and point and let them sit outside and wait for the kick out form Oden or Przybilla
Unless Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden suddenly develop the hands of Arvydas Sabonis and ...
Vlade Divac, that’s nothing going to work in any way, shape, or form. Indeed, a “kick out” would be out of the question.
we are such a good team
and i think we are one of the best in the west. Is it really too much to ask for a kick out from our big men.
Cmon we arent the Thunder or Clippers. That should be easy for a former 1st round pick and a vet like Przybilla
Joel Przybilla averaged 0.6 assists per 48 minutes this season.
I’ll let that sink in for a bit, okay. You can take that for what it’s worth.
Didnt take long for that to sink in
Hopefully that wont be Greg. With how good we are shooting 3’s we need a big man who can pass.
I've seen Greg be a willing passer, out of the post
Both in Portland this year and during his days at tOSU
we did see it against boston
and it worked and the coaching staff never went back to it.
fire nate before its too late
They tried it during the Houston playoff series
Greg got hurt after the Boston game, and then there were concerns about foul trouble, etc
Back up power forward
I would like to sign McDyess from the free agent list. And I would be very pleased if the Blazers drafted Hansbrough.
I see the future
Draft the best avalible player then KP will trade to get the best player for this team.
The Blazers will play beautiful basketball.
Brandon will shoot the lights out. Blake will run and LMA will finish strong at the hoop. Bayless will play because we’ll be so far ahead in the 4th quarter, giving all the Jerryd fans something to smile about.
But wait, that’s not all. Rudy will go 5 of 5 from distance. Batum will posterize someone. And Channing will NOT lead the team in points.
qoute from ofred
Could be
That KP will have a trade in place where he drafts a player for another team (assuming the player is still on the board) then turns around and deals this player for a veteran (etc) on that team. This happens quite a bit, and sometimes the deal can’t be made “official” until after July 1st, due to salary issues
FSNW is going to be covering the draft live, with Wheels reporting from the PF right outsided the war room. Should be fun!
If we end up drafting Blair
and then trading him for a bucket of anything but Blair, I will be an angry ball of fire on draft day.
Last year I was pumped we got Batum, but I was angry because it seemed like we could’ve had Chalmers or Dorsey as well.
yeah
didnt like that we traded away dorsey im sure there was a way to keep him he would have been our banger PF i see him turning into ben wallace maybe KP will trade back for him.
The Blazers will play beautiful basketball.
Brandon will shoot the lights out. Blake will run and LMA will finish strong at the hoop. Bayless will play because we’ll be so far ahead in the 4th quarter, giving all the Jerryd fans something to smile about.
But wait, that’s not all. Rudy will go 5 of 5 from distance. Batum will posterize someone. And Channing will NOT lead the team in points.
qoute from ofred
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