Weakening our rivals

by bfan on Jun 14, 2009 12:08 AM PDT

Interesting article on ESPN this evening. If I were to tell you there was a super-athletic, 24-year-old SF out there who played a major role on an NBA Finals winning team, would you be interested? What if I also told you he would be semi-affordable and that we might be able to pluck him away from one of our biggest rivals? The L@kers are in a bit of a fix with 74 million already committed in salary next year for only 8 players, not including Odom or Ariza. We could potentially use our cap room to make an offer to Ariza of around 6-7 million per year, a reasonable amount for a starting small forward with Finals experience. This is an amount the Lakers would conceivably match, but that would be a hard pill to swallow considering it would cost them 12-14 million per year in real dollars due to the luxury tax. Furthermore, the L@kers would be hard pressed to find a replacement since they would only have the mid-level exception to work with. I don't think I'd be comfortable offering much more than that (and we likely couldn't anyway unless we shed some more salary first).

To be honest, I don't see Trevor Ariza as being a huge upgrade over anyone on our roster. His stats don't stick out to me much other than a pretty good shooting percentage (with only an average 3p%) and 1.7 steals per game. What is more appealing than the stats, though, is the fact that he has played (and won) in the NBA Finals, played for a great coach, and played alongside a $uperduper$t@r, so he knows what it takes to fit in on a winning team. I've seen and heard the arguments for the Hedo Turkoglus and Tayshawn Princes of the world, and they are good arguments, but here we have a chance to nab a good player who fits our window and can mesh with our stars while also weakening the best team in the conference. Opportunities like this don't come along every day. This would also give us a chance to include some of our other more appealing pieces like Outlaw or Webster for a proven PG without it hurting too much, rather than trying to convince teams that Sergio is their PG of the future.

So what say you? You may not be enthralled with Trevor Ariza the player very much, but does the situation raise your eye brows at all? And further, are there any other players out there that appeal to you not only because they fit what we're trying to do, but also because acquiring them would hurt some of our main competitors for the division or conference crown? Looking forward to the discussion.

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Only makes sense

if we are trading two SFs away.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Jun 14, 2009 12:42 AM PDT reply actions

Yes. Exactly.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Jun 14, 2009 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions

They haven't won yet

I don’t concede the L*kers anything. Ariza is a solid player, a good candidate for a glue guy at the SF position, but he’s not worth signing for 6 or 7 million. We can find a better use for our capspace. I just don’t see Ariza being 6 million dollars more valuable than Batum.

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Jun 14, 2009 12:42 AM PDT reply actions

and batum knows how to block someone from behind better than ariza

"There are a few teams you have to watch out for in the fourth quarter."
"Yeah, but Portland definitely is not one of them."

-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters at the end of the third quarter with the Hornets leading 74-59. Portland later ends up winning 97-89.

"They don't mind him shooting that shot at all. Rudy Fernandez is not that great of a 3pt shooter."

-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters right after a Rudy Fernandez missed 3pter. Rudy Fernandez finished the game with three 3pters on six attempts.

by Tofu Anonymous on Jun 14, 2009 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

OUCH!

Painful comment. But also very true.

Sticking up for Travis Outlaw since 2008 and Steve Blake since two weeks ago.

by Kaboomm on Jun 14, 2009 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions

The

Lakers arent that great of a team. Orlando is failing big time in this series. I still think a healthy Boston with Powe and KG would have come out of the East and beaten the Lakers. Just look at their sorry bench with Sasha and Luke Walton LOL As for Ariza, I think the only thing he has over Batum is experience.

by BBG on Jun 14, 2009 12:59 AM PDT reply actions

Several possible targets, but few that make sense...

Possible challengers in next years WCF:

Lakers- I’d love if some team came in with very competitive offers for Odom and Ariza. Worst case scenario for us is if everyone feels that the Lakers are going to end up signing these players in the end, so without other takers the Lakers end up signing them for below market salaries. We want the Lakers in salary cap hell! One guy that is interesting is Shannon Brown, restricted FA, Lakers probably wouldn’t match as they are committed to Odom and Ariza. He could replace Sergio. I like him, but not sure it is the right plan if we want to develop Bayless. He would add nice depth in case of an injury to Blake or Bayless.

Denver- Chris Anderson fits our needs very well, but unsure if we really have a shot at him.

Dallas- Are they a “main competitor”? They beat us 3 times. Brandon Bass has been discussed, but I think Dallas works to keep him.

Utah- I think we let other teams try to sign their free agents.

Opponent in next years NBA finals:

Celtics- Leon Powe and Big Baby! One of these guys would definitely be available. I like Powe to come in after the all-star break and he should be completely ready for next years playoffs.

Orlando- Hedo!! Too expensive??? Probably.

As much as it is important to weaken the competition if possible. Unless Brown or Powe is available at a reasonable salary, we ought to just find the best pieces to our puzzle and not worry about what the other teams are doing.

by 52therim on Jun 14, 2009 1:20 AM PDT reply actions

One guy that is interesting is Shannon Brown, restricted FA, Lakers probably wouldn’t match

YES! I keep forgetting to talk about this, thanks for reminding me

Is Shannon Brown worth pursuing? Could he be “the” PG Portland is looking for? Would he potentially be a better fit playing alongside Roy than either Blake or Bayless?

I remember Jaynes saying that Adam Morrison was just throw-in from that deal, that Shannon Brown was the real prize. Well, how about it, Bedgers? Do we want Brown bad enough to make him an offer that L*A will have to refuse?

by two4larue on Jun 14, 2009 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Our money would be better spend elsewhere

Shannon Brown is a lifetime 32% 3 point shooter that got hot at the right time. For his career he has averaged more turnovers than assists. He’s not the point guard we want. Trevor Ariza is the guy you pay for, a guy LA would really miss. They can replace Shannon Brown pretty easily.

by as11osu on Jun 14, 2009 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, I read the bio/scouting report

Good size and athleticism, bad shot and turnover prone. Not a McMillian PG

by two4larue on Jun 14, 2009 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Then we could get new, pin striped unis

Just joking. Though I like ariza, I don’t think we are in the position to get players just to spite people, yet. We should more focus on our holes before getting something we already have. I our small forwards anyways, and I am excited to see Martell next year.

That's right, that's a picture of me with my new bff Joel Przybilla. He said my Billy Idol Karaoke was spot on.

by svlittle on Jun 14, 2009 1:39 AM PDT reply actions

Spite?

No, not spite. Just looking for a competetive edge.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Jun 14, 2009 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions

I like the idea of making the Lakers worse

but Ariza is not a 7 million dollar guy. Batum has the potential to be much better than Ariza.

"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice

by koyote on Jun 14, 2009 2:16 AM PDT reply actions

Ariza is, of course, good

Good and athletic.

I like Batum and the all-round game he has shown flashes of. Better ballhandler, did much better shooting than he had any right to do, good passer…

I’m very interested to see what the Lakers do with Ariza and Odom, but I’d only want him if we felt we could truly use him and he was an upgrade. Just signing him away to screw the Lakers (when we can beat them anyway) is just a shortsighted, bad idea I say.

Plus, karma.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 14, 2009 2:49 AM PDT reply actions

Yeah it would be nice to Hurt the lakers

It would be nice if another team stepped in and took Ariza from the Lakers.

"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein

by Garden of ODEN on Jun 14, 2009 3:24 AM PDT reply actions

Ariza is not a RFA

It is not up to Ariza to go and find offers to gauge his value, but it is up to the Lakers to do so. If you believe that Ariza can take this franchise to the next level then you try and sign him, but otherwise you just watch him sign with Lakers, possibly for a small hometown discount.

Also, if we do sign him we further hurt the trade value of our drop of SF/PF on the team as everyone will know we cant get them all PT so their value will just fall, and they can wait and grab them at a reduced price.

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Jun 14, 2009 5:52 AM PDT reply actions

Love Ariza

and I’d pay for him. Batum is a stick. Ariza can defend the bigger wing players, especially LBJ at a level that Batum just isn’t physically able to. Ariza was the best players I saw defend LBJ all year, and if we’re going to be a Championship level team in the future you have to be able to defend that guy.

This would be a move that would allow you to trade both Outlaw and Webster. Or if SA really wanted Batum and was open to the possibility of moving Parker, we could probably get into that territory with all of our pieces.

by as11osu on Jun 14, 2009 8:44 AM PDT reply actions

Yeah,

having two lock down defender types is a huge bonus. The Lakers have Kobe and Ariza. The Rockets have Artest and Battier. The Magic have Pitreus and Lee. Take away any one of those guys and I think they have a hard time advancing as far as they did.

I find the whole rumor about Shaq or Rasheed going to the Cavs very interesting. They are basically tweaking their team to compete against the Magic next year. Both Shaq and Sheed play good defense against Howard so it makes sense. Why in the world wouldn’t the Blazers be building this team to compete against the Lakers and Nuggets? Having two good wing defenders would be a huge advantage against both those teams.

Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .

by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 15, 2009 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions

Let Memphis do it-they owe us one.

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Jun 14, 2009 9:22 AM PDT reply actions

But the Griz...

are just a l@kers AAA team that develop some talent and then send up…

by DucRider on Jun 15, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions

Let's examine priorities.

Priority 1 – sign players in an attempt to make our main competitor worse:
Effect: Our main competitor gets worse, we may or may not get better from the deal. Our relationship with the other 28 teams remains essentially the same, but our main competitor gets worse with relationship to the 28 other teams.

Priority 2 – sign players that definitely make us better, without regard to where they come from:
Effect: We get better in relation to all 29 other teams. Our main competitor doesn’t worsen noticeably in relation to the 28 other teams.

Looking at the two priorities, I have to think that the other 28 teams in the league are rooting for us to go for spite signings which hurt our main competitor, but don’t really help us. On the other hand, as a Blazer fan, I think our priorities should be aligned more with the 2nd scenerio, where we just concentrate on improving our team.

If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer

by Clevelander among roses on Jun 14, 2009 12:11 PM PDT reply actions

It would help us though.

Ariza would probably be the best defender on the team and maybe even the third or fourth best offensive threat. He’s certainly an upgrade over Outlaw and Webster, and possibly Batum depending on how slowly he develops.

Why wouldn’t you want to add toughness and defense to a team thats main weakness is toughness and defense?

Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .

by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 15, 2009 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions

We disagree

I don’t think he’s a significant upgrade over Outlaw or Webster. He is a significant upgrade over Batum at this point.

Trevor Ariza has skills worthy of being a borderline starting small forward. Outlaw and Webster are also borderline starting small forwards. They don’t replicate each others skills and abilities, but the sum of the player is approximately equal.

Now, I’ve said that without looking at stats. I’m going to pull Hollinger PERs for each of the small forwards.

This season Last season 3 year average
Ariza: 15.51 15.83 15.87
Outlaw: 15.15 15.64 15.35
Webster: -- 11.97 11.00 (2 seasons only)
Batum: 12.92 -- 12.92 (1 season only)

OK, so citing an unbiased outside source, it appears that Ariza is a small upgrade over Outlaw, and a significant upgrade over Webster and Batum. That being said, both Webster and Batum are a few years younger than Ariza, and probably have more growth potential (of note: Ariza’s PER has actually decreased for two consecutive seasons. Additionally, this quote from Hollinger’s player evaluation “Ariza has one glaring weakness — he can’t shoot. He’s made nine 3-pointers in his career and shoots 64.5 percent from the line, and that makes coaches reluctant to spot him minutes as a perimeter player,” makes me believe that he might not fit well as a perimeter player in Nate’s offense.

If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer

by Clevelander among roses on Jun 15, 2009 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions