2010 Cap Space

by utblazer on Jun 13, 2009 6:10 PM PDT

I decided to look in to the cap space that the Blazers could possibly have in 2010. It seems to be an accepted notion that this summer is the last chance to have cap space for a very long time. However, this may not be true. If KP decides to keep his cap space flexibility until summer 2010, it could be an option. The 2010 cap space will come down to what Joel does and what is done with Blake and Outlaw. Joel has a player option for about $7.5 million in 10-11. If he has another good year, he may opt out and look for a longer term deal that I am not sure Portland will want to/can match. Blake and Outlaw is a totally different question. Assuming 2010 cap space is our goal, should we trade Outlaw this summer for a 2011 first round pick (like Memphis')? So here is the salary breakdown assuming Roy is signed to an extension this summer to about $12 million and Aldridge at about $10 million.

Roy $12

Aldridge $10

Oden $6.7

Webster $4.7

Bayless $2.2

Rudy $1.2

Batum $1.2

2009 #24 $1.0

Others $2.4 (this is an estimate of any combination of Koponen, Freeland and this years 2nd round picks. I don't think all of them will be on the roster.)

So if Joel opts out and we don't resign him we will have a total salary of about $42 million. This means our cap space would be about $16 million (cap at around $58 million). If Joel does not opt out the cap space would be about $9 million. $16 million woul d be nice to play with to add a back up to Oden/Aldridge and may be a PG. Another advantage of waiting one more season is we will have a better idea of what role Bayless will have in the Blazers future (assuming Nate will play him).

I am not a cap space expert but I wanted to float this idea as a possible option for the Blazers. Considering the 2010 free agent class, maybe this is worthwile. I am not suggesting this is the best option to be pursued but it should be considered and we shouldn't assume the 2010 free agent class is unreachable. If we did keep our flexibility next summer who would be a target to finish out our roster?

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joel can opt out?

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Jun 13, 2009 6:16 PM PDT reply actions

Joel has an ETO after the 2009-10 season

So, yeah.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 13, 2009 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions

yeah but unless go has a career ending injury i can't see the blazers paying joel MORE than 7.5m per season. and we value him higher than the rest of the league i think...so i doubt he opts out.

but this is an interesting point.

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Jun 13, 2009 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes

He has a player option for about $7.4 milliion for 10-11.

by utblazer on Jun 13, 2009 6:23 PM PDT reply actions

No way Joel turns down 7.4 Million

Roy $13.7
Aldridge $13.7
Przybilla $7.4
Oden $6.7
Webster $4.7
Bayless $2.2
Rudy $1.2
Batum $1.2

Equals 8 players at 50.8 Million dollars, or 8-9 million under the cap. There just isn’t a way that this team, even with next years FA’s can match what we’d be able to put together this offseason. You essentially have to let Blake, Outlaw and Sergio go for no return. Throw in a first rounder this year and a first rounder next year and you’re pretty much sitting on top of the MLE again.

by as11osu on Jun 13, 2009 6:36 PM PDT reply actions

That may be true

but if Joel has a great year would you rather have one year at $7 million or a 3-4 year deal at $7-8 per year? What Joel does would play a big part in how much cap space we would have.

by utblazer on Jun 13, 2009 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Then you have to renounce Joel if he does opt out

Would you want to lose him?

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 13, 2009 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm gonna go ahead and answer that as a big N O.

We do NOT want to lose Przy.

by staylost on Jun 13, 2009 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions

And that is not enough. You get hit with a cap hold for each player under 12 (undrafted players count as Storyteller told me)

And it’s highly unlikely the Blazers let all of Blake, Outlaw and Frye go for nothing (no salary coming back) in return plus we don’t add any drafted player.

In theory it’s possible (since Webster is the only player guaranteed under contract). In practice it’s not impossible but unlikely to buy us much. And the cap could go back a lot in 2010.

by Norsktroll on Jun 13, 2009 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions

i guess to add to this..with all we would have to renounce/drop, wouldn't it be better to simply make a trade, and that way have the MLE?

Przy has trade value. so does blake right now. so does outlaw. don’t you think you could get more for all 3 of them together than you could in FA, esp with all the competition for FAs in 2010?

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Jun 13, 2009 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Ok but what position do we trade for

Im not really sure.

by quezadaz on Jun 13, 2009 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions

This is one of those 'possible but incredibly improbably' scenarios

First, the cap would have to stay pretty much the same to be at $58 million next July. Given economic conditions, that’s incredibly improbable.

Secondly, Portland would have to let Outlaw and Blake and Sergio walk away for nothing. And give up their 2010 1st round pick for something with no 2010-11 salary. Those 4 moves all happening are incredibly improbable.

Thirdly, your assumption that Roy and Aldridge will each take a bit of a ‘bargain’ contract is improbable in my mind.

Fourthly, a small matter. The #24 pick will probably sign for 20% of their rookie scale, putting him at $1.2 million instead of $1.0 million. A very small detail, but in the name of precision….

In short, I think it’s far too much of a risk to take on the ‘chance’ that Joel both opts out and that the team just lets him walk away for nothing. All for what? The opportunity to bid on free agents that might or might not say yes? In a highly competitive year for free agents? IMO, you’re losing too much with no guaranteed return.

by Storyteller on Jun 15, 2009 9:14 AM PDT reply actions