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Why trading Rudy and Outlaw for Prince Makes Sense

This was originally a response to a fan post which responded to Dave's podcast.  A few posters said I should resubmit this as its own fan post, so... Here it is.

Star-divide

A Piston’s fan on another site wanted to know if Portland fans would welcome a trade of Rudy and Outlaw for Prince, Amir Johnson and #15. The trade doesn’t work financially, but the analysis focused only on the impact of Prince, Rudy and Outlaw which does work. Here was my response:

You have to make that trade if you are Portland. It perfectly balances out the roster maximizes the team’s potential.

The initial reaction that many people have is that Portland needs Rudy and Outlaw’s offense in order to be successful. I respectfully disagree. First take a look at the offensive production of Outlaw and Prince (who would take all of his minutes and then some):
Outlaw 27.7min; .453 FG%; .377 3P%; .723 FT%; 4.1 RPG; 1.0 APG; .6 SPG; .7 BPG; 12.8 PPG
Prince 37.7min; .450 FG%; .397 3P%; .778 FT%; 5.8 RPG; 3.1 APG; .5 SPG; .6 BPG; 14.2 PPG

Looking at the players, Prince puts up comparable offensive numbers, but is a bit more efficient in 3P% and FT%. In addition to effectively replacing all of Outlaw’s offensive production, Prince’s defense in place of Outlaw’s would shave a couple PPG off the opposition’s average.

I don’t think that anyone argued that Prince couldn’t replace Outlaw, but it is nice to be thorough. Now on to the part that makes everyone hesitant about making the trade… replacing Rudy Fernandez:

Fernandez: 25.6min; .425 FG%; .399 3P%; .839 FT%; 2.7 RPG; 2.0 APG; .9 SPG; 10.4 PPG

Those are difficult numbers to replace. A very efficient volume 3P shooter who scores 10ppg off of the bench on a team with a slow offense. The benefit of trading both Outlaw and Rudy for Tayshaun Prince is that the trade opens up minutes for other players on a very crowded roster. After the trade, the lion’s share of minutes will go to Martell Webster (who would not be able to play in the rotation next season with Outlaw and Rudy commanding a minimum of 55 minutes together. Compare Webster’s stats (from before his injury to Rudy’s):

Webster: 28.4min; .422 FG%; .388 3P%; .735 FT%; 3.9 RPG; 1.2 APG; .6 SPG; 10.7 PPG
Fernandez: 25.6min; .425 FG%; .399 3P%; .839 FT%; 2.7 RPG; 2.0 APG; .9 SPG; 10.4 PPG

A healthy Martell Webster put up comparable numbers to Rudy Fernandez this season. He is less efficient in 3P% and FT%, but the improvement in defense/rebounding that Webster offers would give Portland comparable production for those minutes. Admittedly, Rudy Fernandez has a higher upside than Webster, I’ll attempt to show how the change in the roster will continue to improve the team through other (post trade) adjustments that the team would likely make after taking into account the overall change in style of play based on the roster changes.

Overall changes in style with new roster:
1. The team relies more on the starting unit than the second unit. Last season, Portland was second in bench scoring and relied heavily on its scorers off of the bench. By adding a legit third option in the starting unit (Prince) Portland will play with their starting unit more than they have in the past.

2. The Blazers become a much better defensive team. Prince immediately becomes the team’s best perimeter defender, replacing Outlaw who was the team’s worst perimeter defender. Martell Webster, the team’s best perimeter defender from two seasons ago retakes his minutes which went to Rudy last season (Portland’s second wing defender.) Portland goes from having one good perimeter defender last season (Batum) to having three good perimeter defenders (Prince, Batum, Webster)

3. Portland’s bench goes from offensive minded to defensive minded. With Prince taking over for Outlaw, he would likely fill Outlaw’s role as the backup PF in a small lineup (if another PF isn’t acquired in the offseason.) That mean’s that the second unit will usually have four above average defenders: Webster (SG) Batum (SF) Prince (PF) and Oden/Przybilla (C). The other obvious difference between the benches is the lack of scoring on the new Blazers bench. Batum and Webster are both good open shooters but don’t often create for themselves. Both Oden and Przybilla are good at put back dunks, but don’t have strong offensive games. If only Portland had a, PG with a scorer’s mentality who could compliment a defensive lineup… oh yeah, his name is Jerryd Bayless.

When Portland had two volume shooters coming off of the bench (Outlaw and Fernandez) it made much more sense to have a distributor at the PG position (Rodriguez) which forced the talented Bayless to the bench. If, however, the second unit is predicated on defense, then it would make sense to put a scorer at PG.

Replacing Sergio with Bayless would improve both the scoring from the PG position (to additionally help offset the loss of Fernandez) and would improve the defense. Bayless’ tiny arms prevent him from being a lock down defender, but he was out best defensive PG last season and would replace our worst (Sergio.)

Replacing Sergio with Bayless would likely bring out the argument that Bayless lacks the PG skills to run the offense. If you believe that, then it is very nice that Tayshaun Prince is a point-forward who ran the offense in Detroit with both AI and Rip next to him. If Bayless isn’t successful attacking the opposition, Tayshaun Prince can run the half court offense. Additionally, since the trade creates a roster that is more predicated on the starting unit, there would likely be no distinct “second unit.” Instead, subs would compliment the roster while maintaining the style of play which means Bayless would likely be on the floor with either Roy or Price who are both capable of running the offense.

After the trade, Portland becomes a much better defensive team, while maintaining most of the offensive efficiency that they had last season by playing Webster and Bayless.

PG: Blake/Bayless
SG: Roy/Webster
SF: Prince/Batum
PF: Aldridge/Prince
C: Oden/Przybilla/

With that lineup, Portland would have the following assets to either (1) Upgrade their starting PG; or (2) acquire a bruiser backup PF: 24th pic; 33rd pic, 38th pick; two late 2nd rounders, Channing Frye S&T; Raef LaFrentz S&T and Sergio Rodriguez.

While it would be complete conjecture to suggest additional trades that could be made, I would think that those desirable assets could lead to trades or draft selections that would fill one or both of those holes in the lineup.

Another benefit of the trade is that the minutes on the new roster allow almost everyone to be happy. Here would be the break down:

PG:
Blake (25) Bayless (13) Roy (10, 4th Quarter)
SG:
Roy (27) Webster (16) Bayless (5)
SF:
Prince (26) Batum (18) Webster (4)
PF:
Aldridge (37) Prince (11)
C:
Oden + Przybilla (48, distribution depends on Oden’s improvement/foul trouble)

4 recs  |  Comment 70 comments

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Comments

Display:

Why trading Rudy AND Travis for Tayshaun doens't make sense...

1. Tayshaun will be 30 years old by playoff time in his first season here
2. Batum is 20 years old and will be as good as Prince within a couple years
3. Tayshaun is only signed for this year and next year
4. Rudy is only 24 years old and was very good his rookie year
5. No one on the team played better with Brandon Roy last year than Rudy Fernandez (+12 per 48)
6. Tayshaun would ruin all of our cap flexibility
7. Tayshaun being on the team would seriously stunt Batum’s growth
8. Tayshaun duplicates Batum’s defensive skills while providing no answer to the real threat (LeBron)
9. Teams will key on Roy even more without having a dynamic offensive player like Rudy on the roster
10. Using two of our biggest assets on small forward when our real probelm is point guard isn’t smart
11. Tayshaun’s defense will seriously diminish as his quicks go, and he’s getting high in NBA miles
12. We hold Rudy’s rights for 4 more years at very cheap money and Outlaw’s this year for very cheap money
13. The Pistons were better last year without Tayshaun on the court, and actually worse with him at SF than PF.
14. Tayshaun’s D on SF’s has gotten worse each of the last 4 years
15. Tayshaun was absolutely dreadful this year in the playoffs (-0.43 PER, -21.9 Roland Rating)

by as11osu on Jun 12, 2009 6:20 AM PDT reply actions   2 recs

Agreed on all counts

Tayshaun is the most overrated non-Blazer in the history of the Edge. It’s not close. He’s 30 years old. He was no longer good on D this year, much less elite. He was a very good glue guy and defensive specialist – two or three years ago. But he’s not anymore, and he’s terribly overpriced at this stage of his career.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Jun 12, 2009 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I used to be a huge Prince fan

Coming into this season I thought Prince or Battier was the missing piece to the Blazers being true contenders. Not any more. Prince’s rapid decline, Batum’s good play and Blake’s frustrating play have changed that. Did you see the pathetic numbers Prince put up in the playoffs? I mean, we thought Travis was bad, but that’s TERRIBLE.

by meru on Jun 12, 2009 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It doesn't make sense...

No matter how hard people try it doesn’t work for me. Rudy is in our future. Why mortgage your future for a guy who, while good, doesn’t fill a real long term need for us. Just not a good idea in my mind.

by Ilikeemall on Jun 13, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A rebuttal
1. Tayshaun will be 30 years old by playoff time in his first season here

That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. With the extremely young roster, I think many Portland fans have a warped vision about a player’s age. A 30 year old defensive-minded SF still has a lot of productive time left in the NBA. By the time Prince does start to decline in production (2-3 years) he can make a seamless transition to a bench player with Batum starting which works well with Batum’s development.

2. Batum is 20 years old and will be as good as Prince within a couple years.

Yup, but it would be nice to bring in a veteran who can help this team take the next step toward being a contender, and immediately give you the production that Batum will look to put up during the prime of his career.
3. Tayshaun is only signed for this year and next year.

This will be nice because after that, Roy will be on a max contract, Aldridge will have a near max contract and Oden will be up for an extension. At that point, Prince will be 32, a solid role player who would come off the bench and likely willing to take a pay cut to play on a championship contender. While money isn’t really an issue for Paul Allen, you shouldn’t have three near max contracts on your roster with a couple players making $10M+
4. Rudy is only 24 years old and was very good his rookie year

Correct, but he is positionally blocked by Roy. You can’t afford to play Roy and Rudy at the wing positions in the playoffs at the same time. Neither is a solid defender. That causes worse mismatches for Portland than the opposition. Getting Prince gives you the defensive option with some solid offensive production limiting mismatches in the playoffs.
5. No one on the team played better with Brandon Roy last year than Rudy Fernandez (12 per 48)

I already mentioned that you can’t play Roy and Rudy at the same time against teams with physical or talented offensive perimeter players. That includes: Denver (Melo); Houston (Artest); Lakers (Kobe). Unfortunately that is three of the four teams that made it to the second round.
6. Tayshaun would ruin all of our cap flexibility

You have cap flexibility so that you can go out and get a guy like Tayshaun Prince. After this summer (when Aldridge and Roy get their extensions) our cap flexibility is ruined for the next decade or so.
7. Tayshaun being on the team would seriously stunt Batum’s growth.

Really? I would think that a veteran mentor who plays exactly the way you hope Batum will some day would actually benefit him… immensely. What will stunt Batum’s growth is if he in on an overly crowded roster fighting Outlaw, Webster and even Rudy for minutes at SF.
8. Tayshaun duplicates Batum’s defensive skills while providing no answer to the real threat (LeBron)

Before LeBron becomes the "real threat" you need to get to him (and he needs to get to you) which means you have to play a guy named Kobe. With Brandon Roy usually defending the easier player, that means that Batum and Outlaw are primarily guarding Kobe. Our chances of beating the Lakers improve greatly if Prince and Batum are guarding Bryant.
9. Teams will key on Roy even more without having a dynamic offensive player like Rudy on the roster.

How many minutes of the game do Roy and Rudy play together? I would argue that having a SF who can handle the ball, create for himself and others (and can play next to Roy for 35 minutes without creating a defensive liability on the court) would do a better job of keeping the defense honest than a backup SG who only plays with Roy when (1) They are in a small lineup or (2) Roy is running the offense in the fourth quarter.
10. Using two of our biggest assets on small forward when our real probelm is point guard isn’t smart.

Our real problem is defense. At PG and on the perimeter. I already addressed how making the trade takes away our two worst perimeter defender while opening up PT for a two better perimeter defenders and adjusts the roster so that it makes sense to play Bayless over Sergio (replace our worst PG defender with our best.)
Additionally, adding Prince actually makes it easier to fix the PG position. Since both Roy and Prince are very capable of running the offense, you don’t need a PG who can run the offense. He only needs to be able to defend. Those aren’t too hard to come by late in the first round.
11. Tayshaun’s defense will seriously diminish as his quicks go, and he’s getting high in NBA miles.

Again Prince diminishing and Batum ascending is why this works so well. As for Prince’s "NBA Miles" this is only his 7th season in the league and he hasn’t missed a game in the last six.
12. We hold Rudy’s rights for 4 more years at very cheap money and Outlaw’s this year for very cheap money.

The affordable contracts are only of value if you will have cap space any time soon. Since Portland will be over the cap next season, Rudy’s cheap contract really only means that if and when you look to trade him, you can only take back $1.3M in salary without adding other guys. That isn’t good on a team with no bad contracts.
13. The Pistons were better last year without Tayshaun on the court, and actually worse with him at SF than PF.

I can’t say that I watch Pistons games enough to say whether this is true or false, but I am very skeptical.
14. Tayshaun’s D on SF’s has gotten worse each of the last 4 years

05-06: All Defensive 2nd Team; 06-07 All Defensive 2nd Team; 07-08 All Defensive 2nd Team; 08-09: Most votes to not make the team (3 All-Defensive First team votes, 10 All-Defensive Second Team votes.)
15. Tayshaun was absolutely dreadful this year in the playoffs (-0.43 PER, -21.9 Roland Rating)

Four games (All Against LeBron James) is a very poor sample size for playoff success. Take all look at any other year of his career (he made the conference finals every single time.)

by Salem Stephen on Jun 12, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes but you have to remember he's been on VERY good defensive teams...

he’s been playing with Chauncey BIllups, Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, amongst others for the past few years, and they were pretty good offensively when Billups was there too. I’m not saying he’s not any good, I’m just saying that giving up 2 young talents for a guy that largely replicates Nic Batum doesn’t make sense.

Based on the stats you listed at the top of your post (and adjusting for minutes played), he and Travis are practically producing the same anyway, so at that point we’d be better off keeping the younger and cheaper Outlaw anyway. But we’re looking to trade Outlaw, so why would we ship him out WITH Rudy just to get nearly the same production at a higher price in an older package….? Batum is only 20!!! Give him another offseason or 2 to work on his offensive game and I’ll put money he’s just as good as Prince.

by rip_city_swagger on Jun 12, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Offensively, they are producing the same

Underestimating defense (especially in the playoffs) is something you should never do. The difference between Prince and Outlaw’s defense is night and day. I should have put more emphasis on the fact that replacing Outlaw’s defense with Prince’s defense would shave off a couple points per game. That is a huge difference. Not to mention, the rebounding and assists disparity makes Prince that much more of an upgrade.

by Salem Stephen on Jun 12, 2009 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There isn't a rebounding disparity

They both stink…

Prince gets a rebound on 9.2% of possessions, Outlaw gets a rebound on 9.1% of possessions. Outlaw also plays virtually all of his minutes with either Oden or Przybilla on the court. Offensively Outlaw is slightly better, defensively is much, much better. No one is denying that. The problem is Prince isn’t much better than Batum at anything.

by as11osu on Jun 12, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah but we're not comparing Prince's defense to Outlaw's...we're comparing it to Nic Batum's

if we were worried about offense we wouldn’t even be thinking about trading Outlaw. Nic Batum’s defense is much better than Outlaw’s and VERY comparable to Prince, sure Batum is a little less of an offensive threat right now but, again, he’s 20 YEARS OLD!!! give him a little more time, he was a rookie last year

use Outlaw to grab a PG like Hinrich or someone who will add some offensive punch and there you are….Hinrich/Roy/Batum/Alrdidge/Oden is pretty good offensively and defensively

by rip_city_swagger on Jun 12, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The comparison SHOULD be with Outlaw...

If Portland makes this trade, Nic Batum is playing 18 minutes of good defense off of the bench. If Portland doesn’t make the trade, Nic Batum is playing 18 minutes of defense in the starting lineup (or not playing at all if Webster beats him out.) You should weigh the impact of Prince versus Batum because Batum is playing the exact same amount of minutes whether you make the trade.

While there is a little bit of a depreciation in overall impact from Batum because he is coming off of the bench versus starting, (Batum would generally guard bench scorers meaning his overall defense has less of an impact on the game since he is “shutting down” lesser offensive threats.) The difference in the trade is that you are replacing 28 minutes of Outlaw’s offense and defense with 37 minutes of Prince’s offense/defense.

The parity in offense coupled with the disparity in defense makes Portland a much better team.

by Salem Stephen on Jun 12, 2009 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Should read

You should not weight the impact of Prince versus Batum… but I’m guessing everyone knew that.

by Salem Stephen on Jun 12, 2009 7:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Especially with number 10

by utblazer on Jun 12, 2009 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Super nice post

It is well reasoned and presented. The trade sounds daring.

by oregonslee on Jun 12, 2009 7:28 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think both sides do this deal

While prince will be 30 by end of next season, I think he’s the perfect fit, particularly for Nate’s coaching style. Prince can produce in the halfcourt and has the defensive chops that will help get this team where it needs to be. Detroit gets two scorers, an area where they were severely lacking with the overpaid, aging AI around. Sign me up. That rotation would be killer come playoff time.

What are you impressions of Roy?
"He's just a very, very good basketball player. Very smart. Very heady. He can do a little bit of everything on the court. As coaches, when we scout Portland we kind of put him in the same category as Kobe (Bryant), LeBron (James), Dwyane Wade. We treat him the same. He's that good."

- Byron Scott

by CMCWizard on Jun 12, 2009 7:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Disagree

You make a good argument, the numbers support your suggestion…BUT, Rudy has a lot more mojo (clutch) than Martell, and is something you want to keep unless you are talking about getting something crazy like Chris Paul.

So I’m in favor of adding Prince (and even more in favor of adding Hinrich),…but think that Rudy is a core player who will get even better and something you have to keep unless you are getting a HOF type player. This offseason, I’d love to see us add Hinrich (and maybe Thomas or Noah if we aren’t keeping Frye) for Outlaw, Sergio/Bayless, Blake (for Bulls cap relief), and whatever draft picks.
 
(Closing thought, draft Sam Young out of Pitt…anyone who saw him in the tournament will not argue……go Blazers!)

by greencat66 on Jun 12, 2009 8:15 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Batum

will be the new Prince in another year or 2. Noway do we need to get rid of Rudy, that leaves a gaping hole at the backup sg. Trades are great but they also can create another problem area that will need to be filled.

I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.

""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."

His stare became blank. It was apparent he was back in that place, on the Rose Garden's logo, picking up Aaron Brooks as the crowd nervously roared.

by Dragonage on Jun 12, 2009 8:46 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This is a great fanpost

very good thought and reasoning, bravo!

I would have a hard time dealing Rudy, but that is what makes this a great trade, a possible trade. Both sides will think they got something, but both sides will think they may have given up too much to get it as well.

I love your comparison of Webster and Rudy, sometimes we as fans can forget about what Web brought to the team because he was out all year. While Rudy may have the bigger offensive upside, I believe Webster has the much better defensive upside. Rudy is the more exciting player to watch, but nothing he did can’t be done by Webster if he was asked to do it. I think the great thing about Rudy is that no one has to ask him, he is just on attack mode all the time, which if he was traded, is something this team would miss dearly.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 12, 2009 9:21 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmm

Rudy is the more exciting player to watch, but nothing he did can’t be done by Webster if he was asked to do it.

I disagree on this point. Think of all the shots Rudy hit late in the playoffs to almost win us games against Houston. Webster can’t take shots like these, he just can’t. If Nate would have called these plays for Rudy when we were down 2-3 instead of waiting till we were down 5-6, we might have pulled out one of those first two road games and won the series.

I like MW a lot, but I’d rather see him and Batum each playing 24 (plus maybe a few extra in a small lineup) than seeing Prince playing SF and MW moving back to SG.

Minutes wise this would help us because Roy/Rudy/MW/Batum/Outlaw will require too many, but that’s why so many of us like Blake/Outlaw for Hinrich. We upgrade Blake and we really don’t miss Outlaw at all, since we’ll have MW back to cover that spot for us. Even if by some fluke Webster goes down again, Roy could cover a lot of minutes at SF because Rudy/Roy are a deadly combo.

by Zaig on Jun 12, 2009 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The minutes don't work in that trade.

The lion’s share of Outlaw’s minutes came as the backup to Aldridge (11 min/game.) Neither Batum nor Webster is capable of taking those minutes. Which means that you are still going to have problems with minutes.

Lets try to work would the minutes with both Batum and Webster getting 24 minutes at SF.
C: Oden/Przybilla (48 total… pretty easy)
PF: Aldridge (37) Backup (11)
SF: Batum (24) Webster (24)
SG: Roy (27) Rudy (21)
PG: Roy (10… 4th Quarter)

You have 38 remaining minutes at PG to get Hinrich about 28 minutes, Rudy about 10 minutes and any time that you would want to give to Bayless. That playing rotation would get really messy. Prince being able to play backup PF makes for a cleaner rotation.

by Salem Stephen on Jun 12, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm trying to show that that wouldn't work

First, Turiaf is staying in GS. He is on an affordable contract and is excellent in his role. Second, you aren’t going to find a comparable player who is content to play 11 minutes/game.
More importantly, there aren’t enough minutes to go around if you have Roy, Fernandez, Batum and Webster all at the wing position.

At the very least, Bayless will never be able to play, and the team could rarely afford to have a true PG on the floor.

by Salem Stephen on Jun 12, 2009 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

assuming Bayless is a true point guard?

I don’t see how our wing players have anything to do with how many minutes our point guards could play.

by as11osu on Jun 12, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

you lump the wing like it's all 1 spot, you just listed 2 SGs and 2 SF's, which every team needs

We do need a starter and backup at each position, which you just listed….don’t see where the problem is there…

and bayless’ minutes are not hinging on those wing players, if he is a 2 he’s stuck behind Roy anyway which was listed as a problem for Rudy in your original post, if he is a PG his minutes won’t be hurt by any of those guys, especially Webster and Batum

by rip_city_swagger on Jun 12, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think what Salem means...

Is that Rudy/Roy/Batum/Webster would require more than the 96 minutes for the 2 wing spots.

Roy needs his 36 a game
Rudy should really get 28 at least
that only leaves 32 for Batum/Webster, not enough.

The benefit of Prince is he can play 10-12 mpg at PF, meaning there are 42 minutes to split, which is still pretty low.

by Zaig on Jun 12, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lions share?

You realize that 11mpg is less than half of what Outlaw played? You also realize that Frye played the 4 at times?

I have said before that the one thing I like about Outlaw is his ability to swing to the 4, but I’ve also said that if we’re going to trade Rudy, it better be for a GOOD point guard. We don’t NEED any other position really.

If Portland could turn Outlaw/Rudy/Blake or Bayless into a top tier PG, I’d be all for it. Turning Rudy into a guy who will help us for 1-2 years isn’t worth it.

by Zaig on Jun 12, 2009 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lion's share was a poor phrase to use,

but you can still see that those 11 minutes are critical when trying to set up a 9-10 man rotation where almost everyone wants close to 20 min/game or more.

by Salem Stephen on Jun 12, 2009 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would want to keep Rudy

Him and Roy are too good together. The only way I’d be okay with Hinrich/Prince is something like this.

Blake/24 for Hinrich. We get the better deal on talent, but they need to get under the cap. This saves them around 4 million and they still have a backup for Rose.

Combo of Outlaw/Webster/Sergio/Picks for Prince. If we could do this I’d be okay with it for this reason.

PG Hinrich 30, Bayless 14, Roy 4 (I see us using Roy/Rudy/SF unit in spot situations next year.)
SG Rudy 28, Roy 20
SF Roy 12, Batum 22, Prince 14
PF LMA 36, Prince 12
C Greg/Joel- Who cares

Hinrich playing 30mpg
Bayless playing 14
Roy playing 36
LMA playing 36
Rudy playing 28
Batum playing 22
Prince playing 26
and Joel/Greg playing whatever they need to fill it out.

The minutes are a bit low for Hinrich/Prince but this also extends their careers. And, if we need them to play heavier minutes in the playoffs it’s not an issue. I just don’t think Webster/Outlaw/Sergio/Picks get us Prince.

This lineup I would love. However, if you take out Rudy and replace him with Webster, I think you gain a little versaility, but lose playmaking. Webster at the SG for 24-26mpg wouldn’t be awful I suppose, but I’d prefer it be Rudy.

by Zaig on Jun 12, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think almost every Blazer fan would love that

But that prolly means that trade screws detroit. I can’t see them taking Outlaw/Web/Sergio + some 2nd rounders for Prince, if I were KP that is what i would want to send, but If I was Joey D, I would want either Batum or Rudy.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 12, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i respectfully disagree.

rudy was an NBA rookie last year not used to the rigors of a NBA season. He was compared to Webster in what, his 3rd year? Rudy showed he’s a gamer in the playoffs and has shown repetitively that he loves big game moments (lest you forget him posterizing superwoman after blowing by kobe). He not only shoots an excellent 3pt% IN VOLUME but manages to wow us all with passing ability we have not seen since Sabas threw no-look over the head lobs to bonzi wells. Basically Rudy>Webster.

Also have to disagree with the notion that “both sides think they may have given up too much..” in this proposed trade. If I were detroit, I’d do it in a heartbeat. They are dismantling/rebuilding. Tayshaun is old and doesn’t fit their rebuilding plan. I’d imagine they also let sheed/AI walk this summer and possibly look to retool with Boozer(/Bosh next year) and barring that will possibly part with even rip hamilton for young assets/picks. In short, trading tayshaun (amir johnson, and a weak pick in a weak draft) for two young cheap talents is a no-brainer.

Last I wanted to contend some other points made above by others:

*Cheap contracts are great regardless of our situation in the future. Having players on cheap contracts are VERY attractive to other teams so although we wont have the option of making big splashes in FA we can still manage trades easier with affordable contracts. Our model has and always will be the Spurs and they have done an excellent job of this and can thus afford to be opportunistic and choosy. The counter-model would be the Wizard-to this day I fail to understand why they offered a max contract to Zero (spending two full years in pseudo-retirement on the bench disqualifies you from being an Agent).

*Prince>Outlaw to be sure but offensively its less clear. I thought Prince>Outlaw on offense but your numbers say different. Outlaw played 25% less minutes and averaged better than 25% or at 25% less stats almost across the board. Extrapolations are always fuzzy as certain players need minutes and others are more efficient in less minutes, but take that for what its worth. There is no doubt regardless of stats that I would take prince over outlaw on defense every day and twice on sundays…game-deciding offensive heroics-thats a different story.

*Rudy & Roy can’t play together? What? I swear I saw them in the game together A LOT. As a starter rudy looked lost for all of one game that he played because he wasn’t comfortable with his role and hadn’t adjusted to it. Had he played it all season long, he would know what’s up. Rudy is a baller and a damn good one, but I think everyone is underestimating Roy. People are talking like Roy’s a weak defender. Who stifled the Rocket’s speadster? Who is known for game-winning blocks on our team? Roy. And he wont get tired by playing defense. Does Kobe look tired to you? I don’t know if another NBA player has more miles on him than Kobe and he has taken up the challenge of defending hard for 35+ mins a night. Why couldn’t Roy swap over to the SF and play with Rudy?? Rudys shown he doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective and in my mind that makes him the perfect compliment to Roy.

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Jun 13, 2009 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

People seem to forget

Roy has mentioned several times he does not want to play either PG, or SF
for large minutes. It puts too much pressure on him defensively.
Personally I think Roy is likely to start getting injured if they continue to play him so much.
Kobe is an exception, where Roy already has hamstring problems. I’m more afraid he will become injury prone like Wade is.

by MotoMan045 on Jun 16, 2009 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pietrus

Much better at defending elite scorers like LeBron or Kobe.

Offseason:
PG Options: Mike Conley(T)
SG Options: Terrence Williams(D)
Forward Options: Ronnie Turiaf(T) - Damion James(D), Taj Gibson(D), Kevin Seraphin(D)

by TheGreatDane17 on Jun 12, 2009 11:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

yes

“holding” lebron to 40+ points a game was awesome. He’s a regular kobe stopper too haha

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 12, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

...

Lebron 38/8/8. He dominated that series, he just has ZERO support. (LOL Mo Williams as an All-Star.)
Kobe is at like 33/7/6 or something so far?

Not sure how I’d call this domination.

by Zaig on Jun 12, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Miles ahead of Rudy

At defending elite players. But he would be able to smother the 2nd best option on the floor.

Offseason:
PG Options: Mike Conley(T)
SG Options: Terrence Williams(D)
Forward Options: Ronnie Turiaf(T) - Damion James(D), Taj Gibson(D), Kevin Seraphin(D)

by TheGreatDane17 on Jun 12, 2009 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Perimeter Defense

Will be much stronger with Pietrus over Rudy.

Offseason:
PG Options: Mike Conley(T)/Rodrigue Beaubois(D)
SG Options: Mickaël Piétrus(T)
PF Options: Ronnie Turiaf(T) - Damion James(D), Taj Gibson(D), Kevin Seraphin(D)
C Options: Alexis Ajinca(T)

The French Invasion !

by TheGreatDane17 on Jun 13, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're drastically overrating Peaches

both LeBron and Kobe have lit him up. Rudy is a much better overall player than he is, and he was just a rookie last year.

Rudy in one offseason has become the most underrated Blazer on the team. Everyone is talking like he’s expendable even though he was the best fit next to Roy on the whole team last year. It just doesn’t make sense to get rid of a guy after a rookie season like he just had, when he showed some real primetime guts in the playoffs. People are also underrating his defense, if they’re saying he’s awful. He plays solid defense when properly positioned at the 2 (Roy is great at the 3, so this works), he just isn’t a lockdown type. He gambles a lot, but he often scores off those gambles. In the future, when Oden has his thing going, and we’re more or less able to funnel guys to him successfully, Rudy’s gambles are going to pay even higher dividends because his mistakes will cost us even less. Last year he was our 3rd or 4th best player, and that was as a rookie. Things are only going to get better. To be an efficient offensive team you have to have this guy out there making a high percentage of 3’s, and taking those 3’s in volume. His movement is also key to keeping our offense going. He causes the defense to spread for Roy more than anyone else on this team ever will.

by as11osu on Jun 13, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

well, as11osu listed 15 doubts soooooo

I just don’t understand where all this Martell Webster plays defense thing is coming from. Martell Webster so far in his career has been a terrible perimeter defender. This doesn’t mean he can’t improve in his, what, 4th year? But I’d like to see some evidence of Martell playing defense. I called this like 6 months ago, that Martell was going to turn into a legend around here simply because he hasn’t been around to critique. Its like blazer fans who actually miss Jarrett Jack. Seriously?! Steve Blake is a better 3 point shooter (look it up) and Rudy in his FIRST year is absolutely a more unique talent and deadlier offensive weapon (at least he doesn’t just camp in the corner). MW also has 0 trade value right now because, oh yeah, he just missed an entire year with a foot injury also known as yao mingitus, or sambowiedisease. That foot injury that won’t quite heal right is flat out scary. As a blazer fan, of course I hope MW comes out this next season guns blazin’ but I’m not ready to ship out Rudy just so MW can get more minutes. You’d think he’d have to earn them…

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 12, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

MW played solid D his third year

You must be thinking of his rookie year right out of HS when he didn’t play good defense. Understandable.

by Zaig on Jun 12, 2009 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm really not thinking of his rookie year.

I’m thinking of every time he has stepped onto an NBA court. I’m honestly trying to figure out where all this good defender stuff has come from. NO ONE (at least here on BE) was saying that the year before last. Now he’s out for a year and people are remembering him as a good defender? I don’t even know if we can find statistics to settle this debate (cause if they exist then I’m too lazy to look them up) so we’ll just have to wait and find out what happens this season. I hope he IS a good defender though!

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 12, 2009 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

thats nice. KP told me he sees Rudy as our MJ.

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Jun 13, 2009 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He wasn't a lock down defender...

But Martell Webster was our best perimeter defender by far two years ago and would be second to Batum this season.

by Salem Stephen on Jun 12, 2009 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am pretty sure he'd be a bit further down the list.

our team two years ago was happy to win. like at all. being the best defender on that team is like winning the special olympics-its nice but it doesn’t translate to the rest of the population..

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Jun 13, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

good post by the way

I disagree but its well written and thought out.

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 12, 2009 11:26 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

don't see why we give up Travis and Rudy for a slight upgrade at SF

I like Tayshaun Prince’s game, don’t get me wrong, but other than being a little better than Nic Batum on the offensive side (since he is 10 years older by the way), this isn’t much of an upgrade, especially considering what we have to give up. One thing you didn’t mention in the article at all after listing him in the trade is Amir Johnson. Now if we got Prince, Amir Johnson, and let’s say Brandon Jennings/Eric Maynor/Ty Lawson at #15, then it starts to sound a little better to me (Amir Johnson is really good for those who don’t know about him)

What I don’t understand is the focus on upgrading at SF when we have 3 young and talented guys there right now. I think everyone might be forgetting how awesome Martell looked in preseason last year…I think we need to use our assets to bolster the frontline a little (I do like the Ronny Turiaf idea) as well as the PG position.

by rip_city_swagger on Jun 12, 2009 3:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I would stilll rather have Artest

He’s more of an offensive threat in my honest opinion, and he has shown he can clean up his act. It’s America, second chances are as common as baseball’s steroid stories.

he averaged about 16 points during the playoffs, and he is about 30, so he brings a veteran presence to the locker room. I imagine about 75% of you will be worries about what “else” he would bring to the locker room, but as long as he is on a team that will compete for a title, i think he will keep his mouth shut.

My avatar is 3 years into the future for sure...

by Taskmaster on Jun 12, 2009 3:04 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Ron Artest has shown that in a contract year, even a player nicknamed "crazy pills" can hold it together for a season.

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 12, 2009 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rudy is was too rare a find to just give away for an old veteran like Prince. I want Rudy on this

team for a long time. His IQ, and special flare and clutch shooting make him untradeable.

by BRoyInThe4th on Jun 12, 2009 5:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

would be a great trade-

if it was webster and outlaw for prince and rudy. but we already have rudy, so i wouldnt do it. i like how you compair rudy and webster as if webster is something they are getting back in the trade and prince is a little better statisticly then outlaw. maybe i should just go on espns trade machine and figure out ever player i can get for outlaw and rudy. how about derek “I failed my SAE” rose? maybe chicago doesnt want him because he is really dumb and he cheated to get in to college. and rudy and outlaw for rose works. and he has better numbers then sergio so i say lets do it.

fire nate before its too late

by pipgras on Jun 12, 2009 5:50 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

DO IT

I like Rudy alot but if that deal were presented i would want us to take it.
Hopefully we could also make a trade to NY for the 8th pick so we could get Dejuan Blair and Stephen Curry in te draft.
Amir is a good player also but i would take Blair with the 15 if possible

by quezadaz on Jun 12, 2009 6:07 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I would do this trade

but Detroit wouldn’t.

by neilan on Jun 12, 2009 7:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't see how Tayshaun is considered...

…a legitimate 3rd scoring option where Outlaw is not. While he did have better percentages, he only scored 1.5ppg more than Outlaw did playing 10 more minutes per game. If anything, Outlaw was scoring more points per minute.

"The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over."

by GonzoFan on Jun 12, 2009 7:30 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If Outlaw were scoring, he would be a bona fide 3rd option...

but the defense would be terrible. Same thing applies to Rudy if he were to start at the SF position. Prince puts up comparable offensive numbers, but also keeps a respectable team defense on the floor.

by Salem Stephen on Jun 12, 2009 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gotcha

Same offense, better defense. I guess (to me) Rudy is just like a new toy I haven’t gotten to play with enough yet. I don’t want to let him go. I would love to have Tayshaun, though, especially if the deal doesn’t involve Batum. Talk about a great mentor. Tayshaun could help Batum become even better than he ever was.

"The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over."

by GonzoFan on Jun 13, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

and...

don’t forget that Prince avg over 3 assists per game last year, the guy can create for others, which is something Outlaw can not do as of yet.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 12, 2009 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd do this trade

I think blazer fans see the world through Rudy colored glasses. I like him but he’s not as good as blazer fans think he is. He flashy, he’s confident, and he’s the player our wife’s and girlfriends like but he takes a lot of bad shots (way to many fading three pointers early in the shot clock), doesn’t create his own shot, and gets pushed around by bigger perimeter players. He’s good but not great.

Outlaw is fun to watch and shots the ball well but he gets lost on defense, rarely passes the ball, and seems to be unable to dribble the ball more than 3 times before jacking up a jump shot.

Batum is a good defender (not as good as Prince yet) but his offensive game has a long ways to go. Maybe if we’re lucky he gets to Prince’s level offensively. Maybe in a couple of years Batum will be our full time SF.

Prince is one of the league’s premire perimeter defenders, handles the ball well enough to play point forward, and is a decent spot up shooter. We’d be trading 2 somewhat one dimensional players for a very good multidimensional player. I doubt there’s very many GM’s who wouldn’t trade 2 bench players for one starter.

I tend to think his diminshed stats have to do with the situation in Detroit. Who didn’t have dimished stats after the Billups-Iverson trade? He’d make us a serious contender. He’d be a perfect fit for this team.

JRogero

by JRogero on Jun 12, 2009 11:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

My question then...

Can we turn around & turn Prince, Bayless, Przybilla & picks for Tony Parker?

Offseason:
PG Options: Mike Conley(T)/Rodrigue Beaubois(D)
SG Options: Mickaël Piétrus(T)
PF Options: Ronnie Turiaf(T) - Damion James(D), Taj Gibson(D), Kevin Seraphin(D)
C Options: Alexis Ajinca(T)

The French Invasion !

by TheGreatDane17 on Jun 13, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That leaves...

PG: Parker/Blake
SG: Roy/
SF: Batum/Webster
PF: LMA/
C: Oden/

Leaves us pretty thin. We could sign one quality free agent with the cap space, but we would need three quality back-ups. Say you sign a David Lee or a Jamal Crawford. Sure that would shore up either the front line or the back court, but one of the two would be significantly weaker compared to last year. And it seems that all of our cap space and trade assets would be used up (after the FA signing).

"The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over."

by GonzoFan on Jun 13, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah. and then we can turn parker + blake + a re-signed Raef for Bron James1!11!!!11

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Jun 13, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

..gotta keep rudy, hes a true baller

cant believe this is even being discussed

by St. Blaze on Jun 13, 2009 2:43 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

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