"The Trade" [Updated]
by Dave on Jun 12, 2009 3:26 AM PDT
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Technically that title should be "The Trades", I suppose, because we're talking about two guys from different teams acquired in different deals. But here's the scoop. As those of you who listened to yesterday's radio interview and podcast know, 95.5 The Game's Gavin Dawson set something in motion with an off-hand question during the segment I was on. He originally asked who would be my #1 option as an acquisition for the Blazers right now and I answered, "If we're talking about reasonable options, Kirk Hinrich." I said that not because I think Hinrich is the most talented player we could get, but because he combines some talent, the right skills, and a low cost. Gavin asked whether I had included Hedo Turkoglu in my assessments and I said yes. He would be a nice fit in many ways but he'd come at a more expensive cost, requiring a sign-and-trade that both he and Orlando would agree to. Then Gavin said the magic name: "Tayshaun Prince?" If you're talking about single players and the criteria I just named then yes, Hinrich is probably a better value than Prince, again because he can be had much cheaper. But then it clicked. Hinrich...Prince. Hinrich...Prince. I wonder what the possibilities are of getting Hinrich AND Prince without completely gutting the team?
And that is the problem I worked over in the back of my mind for the next dozen hours. I'm not sure I'm done working it yet, but I'm far enough along to open up some possibilities.
Read about it after the jump...
The first question to answer is, "Why?" A couple strong reasons come immediately to mind:
1. One of the glaring weaknesses on this team, even with Nicolas Batum's best efforts, is defense at the perimeter positions. This is the soft part of Brandon Roy's game. I believe he could improve but I'm more comfortable letting him focus on being Brandon Roy (the stellar offensive impresario) and accepting whatever incremental improvements he can make while still providing full energy keying the offense for himself and his teammates. Thus defense will continue to be a sore spot.
The best remedy is to surround Brandon with good defenders. Nicolas Batum is a good defender right now for a young guy and for the 19-ish minutes per game that coach is comfortable playing him. He definitely needs room and time--both court minutes and years of experience--to grow. That doesn't completely address the problem now, though. And frankly, even should Batum blossom in his sophomore season that still leaves the guard positions average to weak defensively. If opposing teams pull their small forward to the sideline the whole top of the offensive area remains exposed.
Neither Hinrich nor Prince need to verify their defensive credentials. They're two of the better defenders available for acquisition at this point. If you can manage to make deals for them without touching either of your centers you have a probable starting lineup of Hinrich, Roy, Prince, Aldridge, and Oden or Przybilla. That lineup has defensive chops.
One of the key goals of an improved defense would be containing opposing pick plays, which killed us through most of the season. We spent month after month switching on screens, creating terrible mismatches and easy shots for the opponent. This was a slow leak that never got patched. We pumped enough air into the balloon to keep it afloat most of the time, but we were never secure and you never knew when a crash landing was around the corner.
A secondary benefit would be easing the pressure on Portland's centers. We relied heavily on Joel Przybilla to keep the defense sound and the middle clear this year...too heavily perhaps. We saw in the playoffs that there's no substitute for containment outside, even with a defensive stalwart in the middle. It's also possible that not all of Greg Oden's fouls this were entirely Greg Oden's fault. I'm not excusing his awkwardness on defense. He needs to improve his coverage, especially when he's moving. But how many of his fouls actually came against opposing centers, the men he was ostensibly supposed to be covering? Even if you say Oden needs to learn how to control smaller penetrators there's little doubt his teammates would help him out by not forcing him to do so as often. Better perimeter defenders means more time on the floor for Greg, which is to his advantage and the Blazers' both.
2. This team is on its way to greatness but the next steps of the path are steep. The Blazers just emerged from the Woods of Woefulness and now face a heretofore unknown climb up Contenders Mountain. They could use a Sherpa. Or two. They could make it on their own but the trip is going to be slower that way. They've only gotten a real taste of the difficulty involved on a few occasions. The March 5th game against Denver for the division lead was one. The playoff games against Houston were the other main ones. In these cases they faced good teams playing at or near the peak of their games on those particular nights. A couple of those games were wins. Most were losses. As the Blazers start to threaten the league they're going to experience more and more nights like that. It's going to happen next year. It's going to happen again in next year's playoffs. The team needs to start registering wins in those situations, both for the standings and their own confidence.
Expecting another jump comparable to what we saw in 2008-09 might be a bit much. As well as they played and as hard as they fought this team didn't look like a 60-win squad this year at any time. It would take a ton of growth to turn them into one next year. That said, flat-lining is not a desirable outcome even though 54 wins is a good mark. Nobody wants to see a first-round playoff exit again next season. We need to get higher up the mountain, which means moving farther, faster, and with more confidence than we've yet seen.
The Sherpas who could help us need to be veterans with playoff experience. Successful playoff experience would be a bonus. Prince absolutely fits the bill. Hinrich does to a somewhat lesser degree. These guys know how to play in games you need to win. They don't have to think about it. They don't have to be taught it. They've done it. There's nobody else like that on this team.
Using another analogy, the Blazers right now are like a whole bunch of dynamite sticks scattered around. There's a lot of explosive potential there but a couple things need to happen to maximize the boom. First the sticks need to be put in order. This is starting to happen already but the roster is still overlapping too much and is too young to be depended on with precision. Adding guys like Hinrich and Prince clears up the mess and allows everyone to interlock. Second, you need a match to light the fuse. Often that spark happens with one key move. This would qualify. The fuse may be long and take a season yet to burn, but you could see the countdown coming. I'd even be willing to put a date on it: November, 2010. Give these guys a year of experience playing together and Oden another year to come out of his shell and the league would probably need to run and find cover.
A couple of the arguments I've heard against the trade are Prince's age and Nicolas Batum's ascension. These are actually reasons the deal makes some sense to me. I believe Batum is going to be a starter for this team and a key piece for the next decade. I like Prince being 30 because I think he can give us a taste of "future Batum" right now and then move out of the way when current Batum reaches that level. For that reason I prefer this to most other small forwards you'd consider, including Gerald Wallace and Luol Deng.
I'm also firmly in favor of Batum getting more time on the floor. The reality is with the current roster containing both Travis Outlaw (who needs more minutes than he can get backing up LaMarcus Aldridge) and Martell Webster (who didn't play at all this year and left those minutes to Batum) those minutes are going to be hard to come by. Somebody's going to get worked over in that rotation. At least one, if not both, of those players could be included in deals for Prince and Hinrich.
Another painful reality when considering this kind of deal is that it almost has to cost the Blazers Rudy Fernandez. This leaves another chunk of playing time open, one that Batum could possibly fill. Admittedly this impression is mostly instinct at this point. The stats say Batum got slaughtered in the limited minutes he played shooting guard last year. But here he would have a chance to make headway against opposing second units. The plain fact is if he's going to grow into the player he should be Batum has to develop some offensive skills more associated with the shooting guard than the small forward in our system: getting to the rim, pulling up for the mid-range jumper, using screens. He has the physical gifts to expand his offensive game. He was attempting many of these things in Summer League in 2008, getting free for shots that he subsequently missed. The seeds are there. They need to grow. That's not going to happen if he spends all his time in the corner.
We've gone through all of this so far without extolling the virtues of the players we'd be getting except for mentioning their veteran status. As I've researched the draft selections likely available to the Blazers (whether they stand pat or trade up) a constant theme has emerged: every potential pick has qualities to recommend them, but each also has flaws that nearly disqualify them based on what we need. The true point guard can't defend and has no three-point range. The scoring point guard can't pass. The rebounding big man has poor lateral quickness and no fundamentals. The lanky small forward lacks a jumper. All of them have the added liability of being young, unknown quantities, likely taking years to develop. One of the best arguments for getting Prince and Hinrich is that you know what you're getting and what you're getting mostly fits the Blazers.
Prince is an able defender. He can stay in front of his man and he hardly ever fouls. He is a good, though not prolific, three-point shooter. He rebounds well for a small forward. He shoots well but doesn't need to take tons of shots or hold the ball every second possession. He can run the floor and finish. He's played in all 82 games in every season of his seven-year career save his rookie campaign. He's not an outright star in his own right. He depends on having good teammates around him and fitting in. We saw his impact decline this year as the Pistons transitioned from a cohesive unit to a fractured mélange of agendas. His situation in Portland would be far more like the old Pistons than the new, however.
Hinrich is also an able defender. He's another three-point shooter who can also hit a mid-range jumper but doesn't need to control the ball to score. He's a good fit with Brandon Roy in the backcourt that way. He's a good passer who has maintained a strong assist-to-turnover ratio throughout his career. He has struggled the last couple of seasons compared to his earlier years but, as with Prince, his team has drifted into disarray around him. He's not blameless for that but there are mitigating circumstances surrounding his decline.
Much could be made of both players' production dipping recently but realistically those are the kind of players you're going to have a shot at. Seldom do you get the opportunity to pick up somebody of clear starting caliber with coveted skills running at full production in their prime. You have to get those guys as free agents and they're usually quite expensive when they make it to the open market. Otherwise teams are looking to build around them, not trade them away. If you want somebody of that description you have to get them when they're quite young and develop them or quite old and milk them for what they're worth.
OR...
You can get that prime-aged starter if you catch them on a little bit of a downswing when their own team doesn't find them as irreplaceable anymore. The trick is to find players who are swinging downward at least in part because circumstances surrounding them...circumstances which won't be as strong on your team. If you can take advantage of the less prolific and promising version of these players more than their current team does, so much the better. This is the Buck Williams formula. He was on the verge of being a superstar for the Nets for the better part of six seasons. Then his production tailed off and the Blazers got him. He never again reached the heights of his early years but he was THE transformational figure on those Drexler teams. That's the hope with Prince and Hinrich.
So what would it cost to get these guys? It depends on how and when you do it.
I believe that Hinrich can be had from Chicago for cap relief and only moderate talent in exchange. The projected salary cap for next season comes in a little above $57 million. Most estimates of the luxury tax threshold that I've seen paint it in the mid-$60 million range. As things stand the Bulls are committed to almost $69 million in salary for next season and less than $1 million of that is optional. Hinrich's contract sticks out like a sore thumb. It's not exorbitant. He'll make $9.5 million in 2009-10, $9 million the year after, and $8 million in the final year of the contract, all guaranteed. That's high but still reasonable for a reliable starting point guard. It's a fortune for a back-up guard who's going to become less important as your young superstar develops in front of him. Add another $4 million or so onto that because of the dollar-for-dollar tax structure and it becomes inexcusable. That contract has GOT to go. The rest of the league knows this. The Bulls have pretty much admitted it. Hinrich's value is limited to teams who can start him but who are also good enough on their own that he makes a difference commensurate with his contract. Those teams also have to have cap room to give in return. That's a pretty short list. The Atlanta Hawks are about the only other team that qualifies, and that's if they don't re-sign a bunch of their current players.
For these reasons I think it's quite possible that Hinrich could be had for Steve Blake's $4 million contract plus almost all of Portland's available $5.8 million in cap room after July. If for some reason the deal had to go down before July the Blazers would have to throw in another player, likely Travis Outlaw, to make salaries match. I don't see that happening at this point. It probably can't happen if the Blazers want to make the second deal in this trade, as Outlaw could be one of the keys to acquiring Prince.
Tayshaun Prince is admittedly a more complicated case. He has two years remaining on a contract running at $10.3 million for 2009-10 and $11.1 million for 2010-11. The Pistons will certainly want talent in return. However they may also balance that talent with an eye towards retaining cap space for the huge free agent class in the summer of 2010. They are also rumored to be hot and heavy after Carlos Boozer this year. Much of that will depend on what they do with Rasheed Wallace and Allen Iverson. Young talent and contracts that expire after next season are key in the first scenario. Young players who are talented and cheap no matter how long their contracts go are important to the second.
Here's the way the salaries stack up among players Portland could consider available:
|
Player |
2008-09 |
2009-10 |
|
Tayshaun Prince |
$9.5 mil |
$10.3 mil |
|
Joel Przybilla |
$6.3 mil |
$6.9 mil |
|
Travis Outlaw |
$4.0 mil |
$3.6 mil |
|
Martell Webster |
$3.8 mil |
$4.3 mil |
|
Jerryd Bayless |
$2.0 mil |
$2.1 mil |
|
Rudy Fernandez |
$1.1 mil |
$1.2 mil |
|
Nicolas Batum |
$1.0 mil |
$1.1 mil |
|
Sergio Rodriguez |
$0.9 mil |
$1.6 mil |
I have listed both the 2008-09 salaries and 2009-10 because there are actually two ways to go about this. The Blazers could make this move before July or after. In either case they'd use the over-the-cap trade rules, in 2008-09 because both teams are over the cap and in 2009-10 because this trade would probably need to happen after the Hinrich deal to preserve the cap space for Chicago. Though both deals would be governed by the 25%+$100,000 rule the key difference is that trading before June the players the Blazers traded would have to match or exceed Prince's salary in order to keep the 2009-10 cap space alive (again, for Hinrich). Every dollar extra taken back from Prince's contract is a dollar not available on the cap after July. If the deal goes down after the Hinrich trade there's no space to preserve. In that case the Blazers' salaries can come in below Prince's salary. In fact doing so may be attractive to Detroit as it could save them money.
Talent-wise and contract-wise the two names that stand out on the list are Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez. The Pistons would probably also consider Batum but I don't think the Blazers would deal him. The Pistons probably wouldn't consider Bayless. Both Fernandez and Outlaw fill a need for the Pistons, they're young, and they're cheap. Travis has no contract footprint as of yet in the summer of 2010. Rudy's will be around $1.25 million. Those are good numbers.
In either year, however, we're still short salary from the Blazers' side.
In 2008-09 Prince's salary is $9.5 million and Outlaw+Rudy totals to $5.1 million. There's at a $4.4 million gap there and all of it needs to be made up to make the Hinrich deal work later. There's no convenient number left on that chart either. The only real possibility in this scenario is including Martell Webster and Sergio Rodriguez in the deal. That makes the salaries work but that's also a 4-for-1 trade which probably isn't plausible. The only way out of the box for this year is to reverse the original thinking and consider whether the Pistons would accept Joel Przybilla and Outlaw instead. They need a center badly and Joel has the advantage of not duplicating positions like Rudy and Rip Hamilton, but this seems less attractive for a couple of reasons. First, Joel isn't that young. Second Joel has a $7.4 million player option in the summer of 2010 compared to Prince's $11.1 million contract that year. That eliminates a big hunk of the cap savings...all of it if they want Outlaw back. Detroit really, really valuing Przybilla and going the Boozer route is the only way this makes sense.
The deal probably goes down easier in 2009-10. Even though Prince's salary is higher Portland has more wiggle-room around it. Now you could posit throwing Martell Webster in the deal with Rudy and Travis and be within the target range. Combined Webster and Fernandez are owed $6 million in 2010, leaving the Pistons a little more to play with under the cap. Granted that's still going bye-bye if they want to retain Outlaw but with Martell on board maybe Travis becomes less valuable to you, especially if you're chasing Chris Bosh. Failing that, I believe a Przybilla and Fernandez package also works, leaving the Blazers thinner in the middle but more robust in the forward corps. Przybilla and Webster may hold the most attraction to Portland in the long run but that doesn't seem as appealing to Detroit for talent or salary purposes. Any of these deals work with the Boozer acquisition as well.
There are many permutations possible, which is why I gave you the table. Maybe you'll come up with a better approach on your own.
As we were discussing in another thread today, there's a world of difference between a speculative deal and one that actually happens. (More so when we're talking TWO deals!) There are some names in there it would hurt to part with. The original goal was to do this without gutting the team but I fear the incision may be large. Still, the idea of that Hinrich-Roy-Prince-Aldridge-Oden starting lineup with Bayless, Batum, and some combination of Przybilla, Webster, Outlaw, or (most improbably) Fernandez in reserve appeals. You lose some depth and potential but you gain experience and focus. I'd be nervous about getting thin in the roster, but depth can also be a crutch to explain why roles are unclear and people aren't performing up to their full potential. If you're making a choice between deep and great you choose great every time. More teams win with greatness than depth.
Do these trades make us great? I think they bring us closer than we are and give greatness a better chance to happen...and sooner at that. Could these deals really go down? The Hinrich one could at least. The number and/or type of players needed to make the Prince move work lessen its chances considerably. But then again the odds are long against any specific trade.
I think it's worth noting, however, that I really only like these acquisitions in the plural, bundled together. If you're looking for one player to make a difference Turkoglu, Gerald Wallace, or maybe some other names might make more sense. What's more, though Prince is clearly the superior player right now if I had to choose only one of these two I would choose Hinrich because I think he'd fit better as a solo acquisition and he'd cost less. For me, though, this isn't about each individual player...it's about what they could do together with the rest of the Blazers to get them over the hump and pave the way for the future.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
[Update:] Sorry for the quick drive-by but I woke up this morning thinking of this and I literally have five minutes to get it in print before I have to be at work.
There's another, slightly less painful way to get this done. One comment in the thread suggested staying over the cap. I haven't thought of the implications of that yet. I'll try to comment in the thread later. We can also do it being under the cap, depending on what Chicago and Detroit would accept.
We'd need to renounce the rights to Petteri Koponen and Joel Freeland plus (and this is the key) trade away the #24 pick for a second-rounder or a future pick. The resulting cap hold savings would bring our 2009-10 cap space to around $8.3 million. At that point, if Chicago is willing, Sergio Rodriguez would make up the difference to get to Hinrich's salary, not Steve Blake. That frees Blake's $4 million for the Detroit trade, meaning the offer could be Fernandez/Blake/Webster (I think Portland's best option and I honestly believe Martell would be great in Detroit in the absence of Prince) or Fernandez/Blake/Outlaw. That leaves us another forward with value remaining on the team, lowering the cost in current roster talent significantly.
The questions are: Would Chicago be happy enough with more space and Sergio? Would anyone take that #24 pick off of our hands? If those go through I think the Detroit deal looks more palatable.
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Any by the by...
(though it’s bad to take the first comment in an already-long post)
This would also bring some clarity to the draft process. I can probably draft you a guy to play emergency shooting guard behind Brandon Roy or to rebound behind LaMarcus Aldridge while he learns the league. I don’t think I can draft an answer at point guard or a small forward who’s going to take us over the hump this year. Small added bonus.
—Dave
Hansbrough is only a quarter inch shorter than Griffin
with a 1 inch shorter wingspan and 1 inch higher standing reach. He may look like a Muppet, but he’s a little bit bigger than one.
Hansbrough would be a solid PF2 in this scenario...
It would really be hard for me to stomach losing Rudy Fernandez, as I see so much “Big Game” potential out of him, but getting Kirk Hinrich and Tayshaun Prince would be a huge move…. maybe too much for KP to pull the trigger on. Still, Portland would definitely be a fierce defensive team.
PG: Hinrich/Bayless
SG: Roy/
SF: Prince/Batum
PF: Aldridge/Hansbrough
FC: Oden/Pryzbilla
Maybe Portland could trade #24, a 2nd & future 2nd along with Sergio and that $8+M cap space for Hinrich and a future 1st as a way to anwser the question of what to do with #24?
Since Portland would have moved Outlaw, Sergio, Blake, Webster and Fernandez… what would the financial options look like for adding depth and filling out the roster?
by Portland Dynasty on Jun 12, 2009 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Wayne Ellington
got your Rudy replacement right there.
I like the idea of getting them both but I doubt it's going to happen. One of them maybe for a fair price, then we
are talking about having to give up a lot to get the other. I would like if Portland drafted a point guard like Patrick Mills who is a quick guard like Aaron Brooks. Dump Sergio and Outlaw to pick up Prince. Forget about Hinrich and just let our young guys develop in the back court.
Whats the metric...
for measuring if Kirk Henrich is a good defender? I’m sorry that guy is not any good. I am just scratching my head why the heck would we want to pay for a slow footed, oft injured, white guy who could never guard the elite point guards in the west. Tony Parker, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, etc.
I’ll keep Blake and my ten million dollars.
Hinrich’s defensive prowess can be observed by his +/-, opponent PER, and opponent eFG% at 82games.com
Interestingly enough, he’s not oft-injured. He’s had one major injury in his career, which he came back from a month early. Link.
He’s an upgrade over Blake.
proud hinrichsheeple
Thanks for at least a reference
Basketball is not played at a PER. If it was then we’d be like 80-2 because of Greg Oden’s rebounding PER 48 minutes.
I still don’t think he could play in the West. Too many good point guards, lots of speed. I AGREE that he is better than Blake.
Is he worth 5 million dollars more per year? Is he going to make the team better in the playoffs next year? I doubt that.
"PER" = Player Efficiency Rating
Its an advanced stat that takes into account pace. It’s not the same as “per minute” or “per game”.
I have seen Hinrich defend all those players and do a decent job
Yes he is not as quick, but I wouldn’t say he’s slow and he has great movement which which makes up for the difference in speed and he is ALOT better at defense then Blake! I like Blake but I have seen him get burned too many times
I have also seen him guard SF’s ver effectively, did you watch the Boston Chicago series? He guarded Paul Pierce very well, He probably would be able to hang with LeBron, but hopefully in time Batum will be able to
"Sometimes I catch myself watching him and he's shooting floaters all-net. And just to watch how he's talking trash. I loved it. I loved every minute of it. Rudy's a competitor." - Brandon Roy
by Trail Ducker on Jun 12, 2009 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions
I will tell you that I wasn't in the Hinrich camp
until I watched him in the Boston series. He appeared to be a tough gritty defender and with the advanced stats confirming the eyeball test…I am for getting him if we can.
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Jun 12, 2009 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions
exactly
Its not just Hinrich’s defense on points, it is his versatility as well. He can guard wing players, which gives Nate more options matchup-wise if he wanted to put a Batum/Prince/Outlaw on the point to try and bother them with length. I dont see another attainable pg right now that comes close to Hinrich…
RUDY > MJ
All you gotta do is watch Hinrich play.
Hinrich played intense defense in their series against Boston. Hinrich was locking down PG Rajon Rondo, SG Ray Allen and SF Paul Pierce when he was matched up on them… all three of those stars had to work their tails off to get shots and make shots, plus Hinrich was a very heads up team defender. That is a high level of defensive versatility.
And being able to match-up good against Rajon Rondo is definitely the same thing as guarding Parker, Paul and Williams…
And why is it a RACE thing? That is flat out ignorant and rude.
by Portland Dynasty on Jun 12, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
How did Chicago lose the series with Hinrich "locking-down" Boston's whole team?
Boston won shooting clutch threes. Allen and Pierce in particular. That was a fun series to watch, but it’s hard to judge anything watching two incomplete teams duke it out shooting threes. The series was Allen and Pierce vs Ben Gordon, and Rondo vs Rose. Hinrich performed in his role, and played good D at times, but let’s not get carried away about a first round loss, that would have been quicker if Gordon wasn’t on fire. The series was a case of two teams matching up really well against each other, because Garnett was out. The Blazers would have won that series against either team.
The Blazers beat a healthy Celtics without Brandon Roy, and swept the Bulls. Let’s not get too crazy over that series. I’ve heard Hinrich praised non-stop on this site. Ray Allen scored 51 points!!! in game 6. He averaged about 23pts for the series. Pierce also averaged about 23pts for the series. Rondo averaged 19pts for the series, and 11.5 assists. These are all significantly higher than their season averages. You’d think with Kirk on each guy for part of the time, if he is really such an amazing defender, would cut into their averages rather than bolster them. I’m not saying Kirk’s not a solid defender. I’m saying let’s get real. He’s a slightly better than average defender considering his lack of athleticism, and offensively a downgrade from Blake.
This trade is a bad idea as I tried to explain at length in another posting. Maybe the name of the site should be changed to “Hinrich’s Edge” ;-) Prince on the other hand would be a nice acquisition, but I’ll stay with Batum, because the window is opening next year, not closing. And this whole idea really lost me when Rudy was named as trade bait. Rudy is worth triple what Hinrich is worth (in terms of talent). Talk about giving up talent. Seriously that trade would be the same as San Antonio trading us Ginobli for Steve Blake. Rudy is a star in the making like Ginobli. Let’s avoid a talent drain for the sake of a move that would give us a PG of more or less equal effectiveness to the guy we have now.
People discussing such lame moves is exactly why this is not the year to make a big move for this young team. The so called “upgrades” are not worth the talent we give up in the long run (long run meaning next three years). We already have the future Prince in Batum, and we have a solid guy in front of him in Webster, who we will get a lot more for if he plays well next year. Outlaw has trade value too. If we don’t keep him, we should use him to get the PF we need, even if it is by moving up in the draft.
I know it’s fun to talk about these trade possibilities, but the Blazers have one of the top 5 most talent loaded teams in the NBA, and without a doubt the number one team for the amount of talent for the amount of money. I don’t see the Lakers complaining about having too many talented guys at each position. They have enough talent to sit Vujacic, Farmar, and Brown among others. Every trade proposed lands us with less depth, less talent, and the same salary range as the rest of the league. …And for what? Kirk Hinrich? Let’s take a step back, take a deep breath, and hope KP stands pat, with the exception of upgrading Frye, Sergio, and maybe Outlaw, if the right opportunity presents itself. Let the cake bake.
Um, well, he couldn't guard all 3 of them at one time,
especially playing behind Rose. And Boston’s guys averaging more? Um, almost every game went into overtime. Some more than 1 OT. And they had more touches and shots with Garnett out. Of course their averages were higher.
I hate the “let the cake bake” argument. You have Martell coming back – how many minutes are left for Batum with Outlaw and Martell playing in front of him? If Bayless is the future, he should be playing like Westbrook and Rose and Eric Gorden, not sitting on the bench with Blake and Sergio in front of him. So you’re going to upgrade Frye, Sergio, and Outlaw. To who? Who will you get that’s better, with only those players to trade and maybe a couple of picks? Standing pat just creates more problems.
Koponen - PG of the future. For Italy, that is. Book it.
If only there were three of him.
I’d move Sergio out, let Bayless have the second unit, until he earns the starting job. Bayless is not on the same level as Rose. He’s not ready to start. That would be a sure way to take a step back next season win-wise. The problem last season was Sergio. He was a first round pick, and they wanted to give him a real chance before they unloaded him. He got his chance, and didn’t cut it. Now Bayless can get a shot. I have no problem having too much talent at SF. It sure helped us last year when Martel was injured. The thing you have to remember is, we have all these guys cheap except Martel, and we have to see what he’ll do before we trade him, or we’ll get nothing for him. We just gave him a 20million over a few years contract. At this point I think we are stuck with him. Outlaw could be traded as I said for the right deal, but Travis does a few amazing things, so it’s not bad to have him in the stable, if we can’t get what we want for him.
It just blows my mind, that we have a team that has made the strides we have, and now everyone is like, we need to win a championship next year. So logically the answer is trading for Kirk Hinrich! The Championship Winner! It really is funny. It’s funny as long as it’s a bunch of fans throwing around contradictory stats, and not the Blazer organization making bad moves, which will kill cap space we can use to get an elite PG later, and still have a guy just as solid as Hinrich in the meantime with Blake. We have what all the other teams want: lots of talent for little money, and cap space. Why should we give up that just to get Hinrich, a guy almost just like the guy we have, instead of looking for the PG of the future, and keeping our money to get them, or a better FA than Kirk.
Because
at least IMHO, the Blazers likely won’t take that next large step in their evolution until they make significant improvements defensively. And I’m looking right at the perimeter defense when I say that. I am skeptical to think that Blake is going to make an improvement at his perimeter defense. I am also skeptical that Sergio will as well.
In my opinion (and this is where I think I differ with many of those in the No Hinrich camp), Hinrich represents a signficiant step up in perimeter defense. This can lead to a chain reaction of improvement across the team defenseively (along with Greg’s improved mobility hopefully), which would provide the next step in their ascension.
SOME PEOPLE ARE LIKE SLINKIES. NOT REALLY GOOD FOR ANYTHING BUT THEY BRING A SMILE TO YOUR FACE WHEN PUSHED DOWN THE STAIRS.
I love the idea.
Prince and Hinrich are at the very top of my wishlist as well. If anyone can make it happen KP can.
Hinrich/Bayless
Roy/MLE (Barnes?, Mason?, D. Jones?) or #24
Prince/Batum
Aldridge/ MLE (Wilcox?, J. Smith?, Gooden?) or #24
Oden/Pryz
I like that. And I like it for many years to come….
That's an extremely well-balanced roster
1. Cheap fill-ins getting the ~12 minutes behind our high-minute stars.
2. At the 1, 3, and 5 we have present (Hinrich, Prince, Przy) and the future (Bayless, Batum, Oden) at each position.
Oh, my bad.
I thought we always had the MLE, and we would use it BECAUSE we used our cap space to get Hinrich. I guess we could just fill in the spots behind Roy and Aldridge with a pair of rookies using #24 and the best prospect of our 2nd round picks….
Either way, its a balanced, skilled, exciting, sound, and dangerous roster. DYNASTY
What is the deal with those Exceptions?
If Portland uses it’s available cap space in a lop-sided trade, can KP and Co. still utilize those contract exceptions: Mid-Level Exception, Trade Exception and Bi-Annual Exception?
by Portland Dynasty on Jun 12, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
they have to be renounced
before the cap space is used
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Jun 12, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions
What about using the Exceptions before the cap space?
Or do the exceptions then count against the cap spact?
by Portland Dynasty on Jun 12, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Right they count
check out this one for more details
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Jun 12, 2009 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Question?
Love the trade idea (even though we’d have to give up Rudy!)
1 question though…
With the above mentioned trades (or ones like similar) how ould it play out so we could use our exemptions (mid level , trade etc) as well?
Just thinking if we do trade away a fair bit of our depth we could use these exemptions to fill in the gaps.
Serviceable back-up PF’s and 2 guards aren’t that hard to find… unlike start point guards or small forwards.
Thanks
We couldn't use them at all.
In order to get the cap space to use in the Hinrich trade, we would have to renounce all exceptions.
I loved Tayshaun Prince last year as an acquisition
This year, with Batum firmly on board, in the starters role already, and not looking out of place, I’m not willing to gut the roster (especially if it’s Rudy, and secondarily if it’s Przy that got dealt). In a year and a half or two years, I wouldn’t put money on Tayshaun being the better player. Like Batum, he relies a lot on his quickness, and that’s going to really start to go this year, as he’ll reach 30 years old. There’s the added problem regarding Prince, in that he duplicates what Batum already does, and doesn’t do defensively. If you’ve seen Tayshaun versus LeBron (and bigger perimeter players), you know what I’m talking about. He’s just not big or strong enough to properly defend him, or even at this point slow him down. If you’re planning on Championships in the next 5 years, you have to assume it’s LeBron you’re going to be going against, and thus, having a bigger perimeter defender might be necessary to at least frustrate LBJ.
If you can get Prince or Hinrich as part of a value trade (not giving up Roy/LMA/Oden/Rudy/Batum/Przy) you should go ahead and do that, but I don’t think either player would be worth giving up part of our core for. I’ll agree it sounded good when it was said on the podcast. If you get Hinrich AND Prince, that would merit being able to get rid of Rudy or Przy. That just isn’t how this thing plays out though (being two separate trades). The first trade looks good for either player, until the second trade comes in and you throw in one our core pieces. That second trade might as well not happen, It’s really quite a bit about value. Hinrich alone or Prince alone doesn’t equate to one of our core pieces. That’s the point of our depth and roster versatility right now. You’re trying to add a core piece by giving the exterior pieces.
I know you have to give value to get value, but we STILL have that. Even without giving up Rudy or Joel. Take a look at all we’d have to offer these teams, without core pieces.
Steve Blake, Jerryd Bayless, Sergio Rodriguez, Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw, Joel Freeland, a re-signed Channing Frye (possibly), #24, #32, #38, future first round picks, 8 million in cap space, possibly taking on additional bad contracts.
There are so many great value pieces in this bunch, getting these players very well could come by mixing and matching these movable assets.
Although Przy and Rudy technically play the same positions as Oden and Roy they’re absolutely vital to our situational lineups and tendencies. If you trade Rudy, defenses get to key even more on Roy than they already do, and you don’t have another guy they really have to worry about through entire games. You also don’t have that player that can take advantage of a guy without an offensive game. Rudy offensively is the best player you have that fits with Roy (Last year statistically Roy played better with Rudy than he did with any other player), and I don’t think you take away that weapon away. Throw in how well Rudy played in his rookie season, his contract, his age and his skill set, and it makes a trade for a 30 year old small forward with a 2 year life (before Batum takes over) seem a lot like you’re mortgaging your future, when our window may not be open for that many years in the first place. Joel is vital to keeping Greg fresh and worry-free regarding foul trouble. You don’t realize how much of a luxury something like we have is until it’s gone. Getting 48 minutes per game from true NBA quality centers is a luxury few teams have. Our rebounding differential from last year to this year alone should show how vital it is, and that’s without even factoring in potential injuries.
Agreed. The trade sounds great until you look at the cost.
I have been all for Hinrich for most of the past season, and have been in love with Nic because I see him as a future TP2. At first, when I read Dave’s post, the idea of having both those guys actually on the roster had me drooling. But when you look at the opportunity cost and the future value of the players involved, I say no thanks.
Would we be better with TP2 on the floor instead of Nic or Webster? Undoubtedly.
Would we be a better team with most of our 5-10 players gone and an upgrade at SF starter? Maybe not.
Will we be better in 2-3 seasons without the young talent we would give up and when the difference between TP2 and Nic is no longer? Absolutely not.
Arguably, this trade may improve the team in the near term. If KP could come up with enough spare parts to put together a bench, this starting 5 is probably the best in the league and certainly would be in contention. But what happens if you have injuries? What happens if the great chemistry of the team is disrupted by such a huge roster shift? Certainly, if you think ahead two or even three seasons and think about what you have vs. what you would have had, this is not a good idea.
Continued patience is advised. We need one more season to let our cake bake. Bring in Hinrich if at all possible. Bring in a banger as an alternative to Outlaw at the back-up four. Trade Outlaw if necessary, but bringing him back would not be bad either. See how the rest of our young talent develops.
If our young guys, and GO in particular, develop quickly, we are ready to challenge next year. If they develop more slowly, we may need additional roster tweaks and another year. But a lot of what is “missing” in the team will develop with a bit more maturity.
by upper left corner on Jun 12, 2009 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreeing as well on no Prince
Prince is aging. Now, Hinrich is only 1 year younger than Prince, but there’s a big difference.
With our current team, we will have NO issues with the SF spot 2-5 years from now. Next year might still be a little sketch, depending on how MW and Batum come out, but after that Batum should be just fine in this league. However, we will probably have issues in the PG spot in 2 years. Sure, Bayless could work out, but he just could as easily not work out. He didn’t show awesome consistency all year like Batum. (And yes, even in his 15 games of regular playing time he helped cost us some games that we should have won.)
So getting Hinrich seems fine to me as he gives us 3-4 years of good PG play. We can use some of those training Bayless and if he doesn’t work out, we can look for someone else. With Prince, I see only 1 year of training needed and after that we’re wasting money.
Nice to say, I agree with you completely.
You and I have butted heads frequently in the PG assessment discussions around here. It is a genuine pleasure to say that I agree with you on this one, entirely. Very well put.
Hinrich is a nice immediate upgrade. He gives us more time to develop Bayless, and an insurance policy in case Bayless doesn’t pan out. I am probably more optimistic than you about Bayless, but I don’t want all the teams eggs in Bayless’ basket.
It may take one more year to sort out the SF position between Nic and Webster, but I am pretty confident that between those two we have the position covered adequately. I think both have potential to be very good. Both have excellent physical abilities and good heads on their shoulders, that usually leads to success. Martell started out with a bit of a chip on his shoulder and I think that slowed his development, but he seems to “get it” at this point, and I am very high on his prospects. Nic is just plain found money. Not sure how quickly he will develop, or if he will reach his ceiling, but sky is the limit.
by upper left corner on Jun 12, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions
I disagree with y'all
I think you guys are underestimating the intangibles that Hinrich and Prince would bring to this team. Not only are they an improvement at two positions of need. But they are experienced, good teammates, they know what it takes to win, etc. (Dave spelled that all out). They turn our team into a contender NEXT year (which is the goal – to be a contender), and they also would do a ton for the development of our remaining young’uns (Batum, Bayless, even Oden). They help turn our “good culture” into a “good, winning culture”.
I really like Rudy. I really like Webster. I even like Blakey and Sergio. Not so much of an Outlaw fan, but whatever. But these guys aren’t all gonna end up as key pieces for us, especially when they are fighting against Batum and Bayless as well. That is the definition of a logjam and it leads to inconsistent PT, unclear roles, and its honestly not an ideal situation for their development. We need to choose who will be here for the long haul and trim the rest of the fat.
I’m aware that Rudy will probably be great. And I’m sure Webster and Outlaw will be big contributors for someone. Just like I was aware we were passing up an all-star level player in Durant when we drafted Oden. But sometimes thats what it takes to improve our team.
If we can get better as a squad with Kirk and Tayshaun and simultaneously make a decisive move towards setting our roster for the long haul I’m all for it. Sucks to lose Trout, Webby and Rudy, but it will only be better for Nic and Jerryd’s development. I’d love to bring those guys along in a conference title race next year rather than another first round exit.
Ummmm
Rudy and Webster don’t play the PG, so not sure how them leaving helps Bayless develop.
If Outlaw goes then our SFs are Batum/Webster. Explain to me how replacing Webster with Prince will help Batum develop. If anything, it will give Batum less playing time.
People are apparently ignoring that our best duo on the floor was Rudy/Roy.
Zaig, as11osu, and I are all in favor of Hinrich.....
….so we are not in disagreement on that point.
I think if you go back up to our original comments, we all like Prince, a lot. The issue for me is the price. Trading away all or depth for TP is too steep a price.
The point isn’t to contend next year, the point is to try to contend for the next ten years. Trading away multiple young talents for someone who will only be an upgrade for a year or two is not the way to achieve that goal.
by upper left corner on Jun 12, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Thank you.
But, I’m also going to roll that point onto Hinrich. Unless we can get Hinrich for Sergio and Frye, he is just a solution for a couple years, until we find the PG of the future, because let’s face it, Bayless has a slim chance. We’ll either have to trade for a star PG in the future, or trade up in the draft, to try and get the next Derrick Rose, or Davin Harris. Either way, we are going to have to make a move for a top level PG (Hinrich is not a top PG sorry) in the future. Blake is the same age and level of player as Hinrich. We already have him for less money. He will play well for the next year or two, while Bayless gets a chance to earn a starting role, and we can keep the money flexibility the extra 5 million affords us to make a real move when a Derrick Rose shows up, or a Rondo is ready to move. By that time, we may have a more valuable SF to trade as part of the package, while still retaining sufficiant depth at the position to not have the move hurt us. The Hinrich move is a “the only guy available we can afford” deal. That’s one you walk away from. The Prince deal is better, but we have to think a little longer term. Batum will be Prince in two years, and again, lets put that money toward an elite PG in the next year or two. Remember Derrick Rose was in HS two years ago. New players do keep appearing. We just need to move on the right one.
Thank you as11osu
for saving me the time in not having to create a post with very similar points on how bad the proposed trade is for the Blazers if we include Rudy or Pryz (along with Outlaw!) to acquire Prince——plus I couldn’t have done it nearly as well as you did anyway. Dave must really consider Prince to be some kind of savior to be promoting this trade. I don’t, and never have. I’ve always thought he has been a tad overvalued by many on this site. Maybe it’s just sleep deprivation catching up with Dave.
I’ll give Dave this though. It was the longest trade proposal I’ve ever feasted my eyes on.
P.S.
I can’t begin to imagine going into next season with only Oden as our center when he has yet to show any kind of an ability to stay on the floor because of fouls, injuries and being out of shape.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
Batum + Webster at the 3 for the cost of only $5.5M.
MAYBE getting two players the caliber of Hinrich and Prince could “Get us over the next hump” a year sooner… But adding one of those players yet still being ablt to retain:
Roy/Aldridge/Oden/Pryzbilla/Rudy/Batum/Bayless/Webster
Keeping this group would be the ideal scenario to me. It is not a LOT of changes the likes of swaping 5 for Prince/Hinrich. Portland can realistically keep that group previously named plus either Outlaw or Blake (hopefully based on what position we bring in)… and really only be giving up Sergio + (Blake or Outlaw) + up to $5.8M cap space and probably 1or 2 of 2nd Round picks to get ONE player at $10.5M or under…..
That is one of:
Kirk Hinrich, Tayshaun Prince, Shane Battier, David Lee, Jamal Crawford, Carl Landry, Ron Artest, Andre Miller, Brandon Bass, Ramon Sessions, Shawn Marion, Lamar Odom, Chris Kaman, Anderson Varajoa or Marcus Canby.
There would be more roster addtitions from whatever BrainTrust is able to pull of out this years draft… No matter what way you look at it, Portland is in position to make a clear improvement on their 54-Win team from this past season. Just the organic growth of the core is exciting to me. There are 4 contracts that expired so there will be at least 3 new faces next season to go along with the (hopefully) improved from summer training Roy/Aldridge/Oden/Pryzbilla/Rudy/Batum/Webster/Bayless plus Travis or Blake! You gotta have faith that keeping that much of our core around is going to produce equal to better results next season, and definitely improvement for next years playoffs.
The good news is, that at this point I have no question that Portland will improve this offseasn and most of this roster is going to remain intact. It feels good as a fan and having total confidence in the direction the franchise is heading and they way they run things. Go Blazers!
by Portland Dynasty on Jun 12, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Great discussion
I like the Hinrich deal, but getting Prince is a risk and not sure I would take it at the expense of dealing Rudy or Pryz.
I’m not sure I agree that Portland would be unwilling to deal Batum instead of Rudy. Everyone assumes Batum is going to develop into another Prince, but it is not a sure thing. Rudy is more of a proven commodity, so Portland may want to keep him and deal Batum. Of course keeping both would be ideal (as well as Joel), but probably not realistic in acquiring Prince.
I wouldn't trade Nic for Rudy straight up.
Rudy is far more skilled, but Nic has physical attributes and abilities far beyond Rudy. Nic will develop more skill, but Rudy will never develop greater physical abilities.
I’m not saying Rudy isn’t a very good player. He is. I am saying that his ceiling is lower than Nic’s because Nic has amazing physical abilities. Rudy will never be a great defender because he lacks strength and has mediocre athleticism for an NBA SG. His limited athleticism is why he can only defend one position on the floor. Nic has an amazing combination of length, speed, and natural grace. He can defend all three perimeter positions.
Rudy will always be an SG, IMO, because that is the only position he can consistently defend. That is the position of the best player on our roster. Nic is going to become an amazingly versatile player. As his shot and handle improve, he is going to become another human Swiss Army knife, a term I heard applied to Lamar Odom. Nic is also five years younger than Rudy. That is a lot of future years.
Rudy is going to be a very good player. AI high energy bench guy, who can come in and be an assassin with his exceptional shooting ability. Think Reggie Miller. Nic is likely to develop into the perfect complementary player to our big 3: a lock down perimeter defender; a very good spot-up shooter; a decent slasher putting the ball on the floor and going to the rim; and a devastating guy in the open court.
I think Nic is the most untouchable player on our roster after the big 3.
by upper left corner on Jun 12, 2009 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Smile
Are you applying for acceptance to the TiH school of commenting? ;-)
by upper left corner on Jun 12, 2009 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Here is what the 3-way deal might look like on draft night...
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=nqxoh8
Portland Gets:
Kirk Hinrich
Tayshaun Prince
Jason Maxiell
Chicago Gets: (They do it to open up cap space for Gordon)
Steve Blake
Travis Outlaw
Detroit Gets: (They do it for a legit center (Przy) and roster room/cap space at power forward for Boozer/Bosh)
Joel Przybilla
Martell Webster
Sergio Rodriguez
I’m assuming we’d have to throw in most of if not all of our picks. Spread them among Detroit and Chicago as you see fit.
This deal would allow us to keep all of our exceptions come the free agent period.
PG: Hinrich / Bayless
SG: Roy / Rudy
SF: Prince / Batum
PF: Aldridge / Maxiell
C: Oden / Freeland
MLE = ~6 Million Dollar Signing (Backup for Oden)
BAE = ~2 Million Dollar Signing (Vet PG)
TPE = ~3 Million Dollar Acquisition (Something Awesome)
I don't think Detroit makes that trade
With Webster and Przybilla, they don’t save any money for 2010.
by Salem Stephen on Jun 12, 2009 5:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes they do.
By getting rid of Maxiell and opening up the PF spot, they’d have 5 million additional dollars to work with in 2010. Meaning they’d be under the cap that year by 31 million dollars (if the cap in 2010 is $60 million).
Prediciton = -13 games
We lose 13 more games. I like the idea, but wouldn’t want to give up Przybilla.
That is because the trade machine says
Blake is a better player than Hinrich and there is no difference between Travis Outlaw and Tayshaun Prince. Both things definitely don’t seem to be true.
I also wouldn’t want to give up Przybilla, but it was the only way the numbers worked.
Good trade but....
Would Detroit trade an up and coming player like Maxiel? You might be getting a little greedy here. He seems to fit REALLY well on that team. Let’s say we throw them our #24 and future first rounder, that might do it, but still. That is a tough trade to pull the trigger on if you are Detroit.
So take Maxiel out and try it again. Now I’m interested.
Although I’d rather have Martell than Rudy, see if you can make that happen.
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
I think the up and coming label on Maxiell
has kinda worn off. he is just a so so player
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
I feel like Rudy is slowly becoming the most overrated Blazer ever.
I would rather keep Joel.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 12, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Time will tell, but I'm inclined to agree at the moment.
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
One post season doesn't define a player.
Prince has been a terrific player on a team that’s made it to the Eastern Conference finals for the last 5 out of the last 6 years. He has been fantastic for the last 8 years and one weak post season doesn’t change my opinion of him.
It’s the same reason I was down with Hinrich despite a weak year in 2007. A dip in production on a team that has been weak as a whole usually doesn’t reflect an accurate description of a single players talent.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 12, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
He was a great 4th man on those Piston teams
Not willing to give up so much for him. If we could swing him without losing Rudy or Joel then cool, but I doubt we can so I don’t think he’s worth it.
If you trade Rudy for Prince
You’re giving up Rudy from age 25 until age 31 for Prince from age 30 until age 31. You’re also paying Tayshaun a ton more for that stretch. The window isn’t really even open yet, with so many things in flux, as our roster would be as well. Rudy last year was the best player match for Roy, and was one of few players that stepped up their games when it mattered. This is a trade you definitely regret three seasons from now, if not two.
I think that is my main issue too
giving up Rudy for Prince….if it could be done without Rudy….I think I would want to…but price is too high
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Jun 12, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Does that include all the players on the Blazers?
Or are we throwing them under the bus.
What Rudy's got 40 inch vertical
He hit 0.400 from three .
He is playing for cheap for his love of the game
His IQ will win games for you and
the excitement he creates will change the flow of games.
He has a nose for the ball
But yeah I honestly do agree with your point
Joel is more valuable
but you not slight Rudy ‘Fricken’ Fernandez
"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein
by Garden of ODEN on Jun 14, 2009 2:36 AM PDT up reply actions
I think the key to aquiring both players...
is to never be a “cap space” team. Keep the cap holds and the MLE… it makes trades a lot easier.
Trade 1: (Before July)
Portland trades:
Travis Outlaw $4.0M
Steve Blake $4.25M
Sergio Rodriguez $874K
Chicago trades:
Kirk Hinrich $10M
(Agrees to cut Steve Blake and use Sergio as the cheap backup to Rose)
After July:
Portland trades:
Kitchen Sink (Defined as)
Rudy Fernandez
Jerryd Bayless
Any player Detroit like that Portland can acquire using Diogu’s TPE
- overall
2011 First Rounder
Raef LaFrentz or Channing Frye S&T (1 year contract) to make up the rest of the salary difference
Detroit Trades:
Tayshaun Prince
That’s a lot to give up, but I wanted to suggest a trade that definitely made sense for Detroit.
Portland’s roster:
PG: Hinrich/Empty
SG: Roy/Webster
SF: Prince/Batum
PF: Aldridge/Empty
C: Oden/Przybilla
If Portland had to trade Bayless to make the trade work, that would hurt because Hinrich would be the only PG on the roster. Fortunately, by never being a “cap” team, Portland never had to renounce its MLE. Good thing Chicago decided to waive Steve Blake. I’m sure he would be happy coming to Portland for 3yr/$12M to play backup behind Hinrich. That would give Portland the rest of the MLE to sign a backup PF (though I think that Prince would play backup PF to get enough minutes for both he and Batum.
Fill out the roster with #33, #38 and league minimum contracts… and you get to retain control of Koponen and Freeland.
Final Roster:
PG: Hinrich/Blake/L. Hudson (#55.. had a good workout last season)
SG: Roy/Webster/
SF: Prince/Batum/D. Summers (#33… his size could make for a mismatch)
PF: Aldridge/Prince/S. Randolph (Resign league minimum)
C: Oden/Przybilla/Steven Hill (League minimum… Imagine his playoff beard)
Overseas talent:
Beaubois (#38)
Koponen
Freeland
I think it'd be generous to say
that’s overpaying for a 30 year old small forward that isn’t much of an upgrade over Batum right now, and probably isn’t an upgrade over him at all in the not so distant future. I’m not even in the same ballpark as that trade.
He's an ginormous upgrade over Batum
Batum’s got the potential, but Prince would make a big difference.
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
FYI, you can't do a one year contract with a sign-and-trade
It must be 3 years long with the first year fully guaranteed.
So could you...
sign Raef LaFrentz to a 3 year contract with a team option on the second year? That would effectively make it a one year contract. The other option would be for Frye to accept his QO and then he would be made part of the trade.
by Salem Stephen on Jun 12, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
A few problems
1. That is way too much for Prince. Maybe three years ago Prince, but not right now.
3. As mentioned, A sign & trade has to be 3 years.
4. Bayless needs to come out of this trade for sure, to balnce it out and because all signs (hints) this offseason have pointed to Bayless staying.
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
Everytime I see your screename, I think it's a play on Hezbollah
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
I'm a baller from originally from Kelso High School, now live downtown ptown
what’s Hezbollah?
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
Giving up Blake for Kirk
is a lot less painful than giving up Rudy/Joel and Travis for Prince. I think Rudy’s stock will go up. The guy is a gamer, no way around it, he won’t fade. We could likely do a trade similar to this straight up with only Rudy after next year, talent wise.
plus giving up Joel
just seems like something we would have a high likelihood of regretting, given Greg’s current abilities. I don’t feel that with giving up Travis, I doubt we shoot ourselves there, but with Joel there is a significant risk.
by Dudehere on Jun 12, 2009 6:30 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'd agree
Rudy’s value as a player relative to his contract should increase pretty substantially after another season in the NBA, so I think it’s a bit of selling low to trade him now or in the near future, unless it’s for a ’can’t miss’ big deal. Also, until Oden proves himself, trading Joel could put us in a bind.
Giving up that much for Prince doesn’t seem like the most prudent move in maximizing our assets, despite Prince’s talent. I am on board about getting Kirk though…
by Furious Styles on Jun 12, 2009 7:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Disagree
Although I would LOVE to keep Pryzbilla, not having him as a backup option might be good for Oden. GO would have to be more accountable for his actions and Nate’s hook would not be as swift. However, as Dave articulated above, Portland would be bringing in two guys that are known for their defense. They would help to protect Oden from unnecessary fouls, which would be a big plus in that department. Finally, if Oden does improve next season, Joel’s playing time will drop and so will his perceived value. Now may be the time to strike while the iron is hot.
Greg's problems having nothing to do with a lack of "personal accountability".....
….and everything to do with learning to be an NBA player and coming off of micro-fracture.
Trading Pryz will be cause for years of regret, no matter how good Greg becomes. He is going to get in foul trouble. He is going to get banged up from time to time. Pryz gives Portland rebounding and defensive continuity. I would not trade him unless you offered me a good, young, starting PG. End of story.
by upper left corner on Jun 12, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Well
If Greg plays 32 minutes a game that only leave 16 for Pryz. That is not much PT. Again, I would like to keep him, but trading him now (at the peak of his value) for Prince would be good.
Even if Greg averaged 32...
Which I doubt will happen, there would still be games where he got in quick foul trouble. Having a real backup center > doing a 1-2 year marginal upgrade at SF.
If Greg could average 32
we wouldn’t be in need of any new players. That would mean that he developed into being one of the most dominant forces in the NBA. Boy, would we all like to see that.
I don't think KP deals Blake or Przy
much less both of them. (Webster is also a very unlikely trading piece, at this time)
I would add Hinrich to go along with Blake at PG. Let Bayless learn from both of them.
Prince is a luxury not worth blowing up the roster to attain. Yes, the Blazers need a “sherpa” like Tayshaun to lead them up the mountain, but SF is the wrong postition to target. A veteran PF to play behind LMA and provide veteran experience makes so much more sense, and could be acquired via free agency
You can't learn crap as a third PG
Look at Sergio’s second year. He regressed from his rookie year. If you go with Hinrich/Blake, you probably included Bayless in the trade. If Hinrich/Blake go down with an injury, you just play the other guy 40 minutes a game for that time period and have Roy/Rudy cover the other 8. If one of those two goes down with a serious injury you bring up a D-leaguer or something.
The old "ten day contract"
I like your shrewdness.
I would be satisfied with just Hinrich. He’s the perfect veteran complement to Roy and we could preserve our young talent. If that was the only major move KP did, I’d be happy.
proud hinrichsheeple
I would also love to get Prince, I just think that the salary restrictions make the deal nigh impossible to consummate.
proud hinrichsheeple
I really do think getting prince would at least put us in the conference finals.
I love Rudy but he is tradeable. I love Joel, but I dont think he is tradeable this year, maybe next. dont know how we get him but it would be interesting.
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
I would be more than satisfied with Hinrich, I would be thrilled.
I was mildly disappointed that KP didn’t make a move at the trade deadline. The way the team played after the All-Star break and after GO returned demonstrated the wisdom of continued patience. I think the team is a lot closer to being at the elite level than a lot of other posters, most of what they need will come with time.
Don’t fix what isn’t broken.
by upper left corner on Jun 12, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the Hinrich deal can and should come. The Prince deal is much more unlikely since we are not as aware of Detroit's plans
If they intend to just replenish Rasheed (e.g. with Carlos Boozer, though I’m not convinced he and Stuckey would be a potent duo) and contend immediately again, they won’t be interested to trade Prince. But lets assume they are.
Another trade that could work would be Travis, Martell and Sergio (plus picks, cash).
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=kr9at3
Detroit is shallow at small forward, with Walter Herrmann and occasionally Rip Hamilton (while AI was still there) playing the position as backups. For both this is not their natural position. Herrmann is also a restricted free agent now and just not very good (his offensive specialty is three point shooting from the corners, at 34%). If they also lose McDyess, in addition they would be shallow at power forward.
Travis could help both needs, and while Martell has less trade value than Rudy after his injury he would provide them with significant talent as a backup who might develop into the starter. Whereas Rudy would be stuck behind Rip Hamilton who is signed through 2012 at least (2012-13 partially guaranteed) for the rest of his rookie contract, just like he is now in Portland behind Roy. There are absolutely no signs Detroit intends to move Rip to another team any time soon. The exact same situation, and Rip as said above doesn’t work as either a PG or a SF to play both of them at the same time. Sergio would have to battle with Will Bynum (who is three years older and a very different player) for the backup spot.
This trade could be also financially interesting for Detroit, who would save $1 million in salary difference immediately, replenish three roster spots, and still have all flexibility for free agency – depending on who else they bring in in 2009 of course – with Sergio and Travis on deals that make them free agents in 2010.
So such a deal could make sense for both teams. And frankly, while I would really like a Prince – Batum rotation on SF I’m not yet ready to give up Rudy in a deal for a 30+ year old player.
P.S.: The same package would work for Gerald Wallace, though the Bobcats have again different needs
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=l64ghz
I'd much much much much much much rather get Crash
than Prince. I’d have loved talking trades for Tay a couple of years ago but he’s not the player he used to be.
Yknow, we used to wonder if Tay would make it in the league because of his rail thin physique and he definitely proved us wrong, but I’m wondering if that physique is responsible for how early he’s declining. He seemed subtly off last season and I thought it was a little flukey, but it’s been confirmed and then some this season.
by howlingfantods on Jun 12, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Decline?
I’m not a fan of trading for TP, as my posts above outlined, but I don’t see the decline you are talking about. His points and rebounds both increased, his TS% was exactly the same. His PER dropped slightly, by less than a point, but that is hardly a decline. Care to elaborate on your point?
by upper left corner on Jun 12, 2009 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions
If the goal is to acquire Prince,
yours is a far more palatable plan Norsktroll.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
I dont think Det would give up price for that trio..
if we are throwing in #24 and maybe a second rounder, perhaps.. but I think they are getting the raw end of the deal.
Also.. for all the 30+ stuff i hear, all year long I heard, man we are too young lets get a vet.. heres our chance.. Prince is still playing great ball, is a perfect fit and will really help Batum. The only worry I have about Prince is that he isnt a great shooter. Which means that Nate is gonna have to adjust and not place him in the corner alone
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Listen
We won’t win a championship with Hinrich. It’s as simple as that. Whats the point in trading for him if that’s the case? At most, he is a slightly better defender than Blake at a lot heftier price.
Kirk Hinrich is not the answer, at least for next season.
We need a small forward who can defend, rebound, and shoot from the outside outside. It might Batum or Webster, but surely not Outlaw. That has yet to be determined.
At most, he is a slightly better defender than Blake at a lot heftier price.
Actually, he’s a terrific defender and better playmaker than Steve.
proud hinrichsheeple
Hmmm
better playmaker than Steve.
You can’t say for sure because the Bulls have always been mediocre offensively, but Hinrich is not an elite playmaker. He might be better than Blake just because he’s quicker and better at dribble penetration. Also, he’s never played with someone so efficient on offense like Brandon Roy.
That Steve Nash is exactly the same as Kirk Hinrich, but worse.
by NBA Observer on Apr 8, 2009 12:23 PM CDT
by Ozzie Montana on Jun 12, 2009 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t watch every Bulls game, but Hinrich is capable of running the pick and roll from what I’ve seen. Blake doesn’t. That’s one of the biggest differences from what I’ve seen.
proud hinrichsheeple
by Cablinasian on Jun 12, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I assumed Blake was good at it considering how much Alridge shoots the jumper
But, I guess those pick and rolls are run with Roy?
That Steve Nash is exactly the same as Kirk Hinrich, but worse.
by NBA Observer on Apr 8, 2009 12:23 PM CDT
by Ozzie Montana on Jun 12, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeh...most of the Pick and Pops are Roy and LMA
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Jun 12, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Blake rarely, rarely runs the pick and roll. Rudy and Roy are both the main pick and roll ballhandlers.
proud hinrichsheeple
by Cablinasian on Jun 12, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
it’s a big reason that the offense can get bogged down. If Roy and Rudy are denied the ball, then there isn’t anyone to execute off of a pick.
I’ve always liked the way that Hinrich ran a basic pick and roll… not incredible, but somewhat effective.
proud hinrichsheeple
by Cablinasian on Jun 12, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
We'd rather pick and roll
And not pick and pop so much. Blake isn’t a totally horrible pick n’ roll guard but he isn’t a good one; certainly not as good as Hinrich (even though he isn’t the greatest either). We usually used Roy in the pick and roll because he’s such a threat for the defense to focus on and skilled passer.
Blake’s biggest problem on offense is a complete inability to create seperation between him and his defender, and create for others off the dribble. Hinrich isn’t a league leader in this either, but is still quite a bit better than Blake.
Blake tries hard on defense, is careful with the ball, and hits open shots. All stuff Hinrich does as well, and better.
A big problem for Blake in the pick and roll, and one he actually got quite a bit better on this season, was knowing when to shoot and to make sure the defense treats him as a threat. He used to pass up so many open shots, or not shoot when the defense sagged on the P n’ R, and it would screw everything up. He was much more decisive this season.
Stats wise, we can see that Blake has shot the ball better lately, but it isn’t by a great amount and Hinrich has more than shown that he can shoot throughout his career. The one and only thing I see that Blake has over Hinrich is familiarity with Nate, and with the other players— but Hinrich is known as a quick study and that isn’t a problem I worry about.
The contract stuff is a nonstarter since he is a good starting PG and it isn’t an obscene, untradeable amount. This is also our last window to use a cap space type deal, so we’re being able to add that money for almost ‘free’. It isn’t our personal cash we are spending, and it won’t limit us from re-signing anyone we want to. Hinrich is in his prime, fairly compensated for a good starting PG, and his contract ends at the exact right time for our needs.
Not all of this was a reply to you, of course, Ozzie, just general notes for the thread.
Anyone who thinks Hinrick/Heinrich/Hinrich isn’t a better defender than Blake, please… every known metric supports that he IS a better defender, every scout and front office executive and coach would likely agree. Hinrich is known as a very good perimeter defender of not just PGs, but even wings 4 inches taller than him. If you’re going to argue against Hinrich please do so, but you can’t use his defense as a reason why he isn’t that much better. He is an EXTREMELY better and more athletic defender.
Blake always tries hard on defense and knows what to do, but he just isn’t physically capable of good defense on most perimeter players.
I know both him and Blake look like slow white guys, but Hinrich is athletic and strong and tough. He is a very good defender and it shouldn’t really be up for a fair debate when everything points to him being the better defender: stats, words from experts, and our eyes all say so.
Mortimer
He is an EXTREMELY better and more athletic defender.
but… but… they’re both white.
proud hinrichsheeple
by Cablinasian on Jun 12, 2009 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
amazing yet true
VENTURA: It's drowning. It gives you the complete sensation that you are drowning. It is no good, because you -- I'll put it to you this way, you give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders.
I know, I know
It weirds me out too, believe me, I hate white people.
He’s strong, pesky, plays hard, and like Pat Riley says he gets away with it. He is known as a strong defender, an All-NBA defender even, and that means a lot— especially in the playoffs.
I mean, the playoffs! I hardly watched the Boston/Bulls series and it was clear how good he was defending. Any doubts people had about whether he “stills got it” (as the kids say) shoulda’ been eased after that series.
He ain’t an allstar, but he’s a role player star plus type PG. A very, very nice fit next to the playmaking Roy. In all the ways Blake is a good fit and then some.
Morty
“He’s strong, pesky, plays hard, and like Pat Riley says he gets away with it”
I wish we had more guys that “get away with it”..
you know stuff like elbowing people in the face in a finals game and not getting called. thats how we win titles ladies and gentlemen
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
As we continue to develop our reps...
…Roy will get more FTs, touch fouls on the perimeter won’t be called on Oden, and LMA will be rewarded more for his efforts to get inside.
Oden got completely abused by the refs this season, which made a bad situation awful, but he’ll get that benefit of the doubt if he turns out how we expect (or how I expect, at least).
I don’t blame the players who can get away with it, with getting away with it. They worked hard and were good enough to build the reputation that enables them to get away with it, after all. I think we got the guys who are smart enough to take advantage of the reputation they are solidly building right now.
I’ll elbow some midget PG in the face if it means WE get to win a title, I know that much!
Mortimer
no doubt..
i was telling my friend just yesterday who was complaining about superstar calls, that for the first time in a long time, i am going to enjoy us getting those calls (roy) instead of just complaining about how we always get hosed.
yay us
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Man we'll be even more hated then
We already got the richest owner and biggest (and thus most annoying) online fan presence and have hot and sexy young talent that everyone loves.
Once we get the benefit of the doubt from the refs (which is inevitable), we’ll be so hated.
WHO CARES ABOUT PORTLAND WHAT IS THERE TO DO THERE ANYWAYS BESIDES CHOP DOWN TREES AND GO TO BEAVER FUR FASHION SHOWS is what they will say, and I won’t correct them so that I can buy a good house for a decent price when I finally move back to Portland.
Mortimer
agreed
is the wife gonna let you move back? im having trouble convincing mine
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions
She isn't from LA
Is yours? Mine loves Portland more than anywhere else and doesn’t really care for LA.
She’s from Florida.
Mo—
The housing prices exploded over the last 5 years
At least the recession cut into it a bit.
Hasn't Hinrich been coached by Nate before?
The one and only thing I see that Blake has over Hinrich is familiarity with Nate, and with the other players
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 12, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh yeah, in the pre-Olympics thang, right?
I guess I mean more, familiar with being a Blazer and the Blazer system.
Mo—
Actually
He is a slightly better defender than Steve Blake and you are wrong about the playmaking. Just look at the stats. The grass always seems to be greener on the other side of the fence.
Kirk Hinrick
2007/2008 – 0.350 3pt% / 6 AST / 2.1 TO / 2.86 A/T ratio
2008/2009 – 0.408 3 pt% / 3.9 AST / 1.7 TO / 2.29 A/T ratio
$10,000,000
Steve Blake
2007/2008 – 0.408 3pt% / 5.1 AST/ 1.4 TO / 3.64 A/T ratio
2008/2009 – 0.427 3pt% / 5.0 AST / 1.6 TO / 3.13 A/T ratio
$4.25 mil
So according to statistics, Steve Blake is a playmaker and a better 3 pt shooter for less than half the price as Hinrich.
You tell me, what is the better option …hold on to Blake and pay less or trade for Hinrich, lose some players, and pay more?
Want to pick some more cherries?
That Steve Nash is exactly the same as Kirk Hinrich, but worse.
by NBA Observer on Apr 8, 2009 12:23 PM CDT
by Ozzie Montana on Jun 12, 2009 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
More perspective
Comparing Blake and Hinrich’s last two years can be misleading because Hinrich was injured for one year and then played out of position or not at all in the second year. However, if you compare their careers you may get a different perspective.
Here is what their career PERs look like:
Let's throw some logic in with that post
2008/2009, Hinrich played the SG spot behind Rose and had a completely different role on that team. Also, Hinrich was required to type a lot tougher 3s than Blake. This have been brought up time and time again. 90% of Blake’s 3s were wide open looks, nobody in the area. Hinrich can’t quite say the same (although he’s no on Rudy/Roy level of tough looks.) Hinrich would shoot 43% easy here.
I also notice that you leave the defensive stats out of the equation here. I also notice that you left out the fact that Hinrich will get paid less each year. Also the fact that when Hinrich is the PG his A/T ratio is almost identical to Blake’s and that he actually creates the assists himself.
Or you know, Assists and 3pt% might be the only 2 stats in basketball.
Are you cracking eggs of logic?
“Hinrich would shoot 43% easy here.” ??? Thanks for the logical prediction. Finally we can see Hinrich become the player we all knew he could be, if only he was a better shooter than he has ever been before in his career, because Ben Gordan can’t draw a double team. I’m skeptical.
Here’s something I’m not at all skeptical about. I think when Oden starts catching the ball a little better, and finishing a lot better, Blake will have no problem creating assists.
Right now, he has Roy, who wants the ball at the top, and Aldridge who want’s the ball at the elbow for his jumper. When those guys start rolling to the basket, I think he’ll start passing it. Pass it to Outlaw, he takes a jump shot. Pass it to Joel, he has trouble with his handle too. Remember when Joel had like a 80% Fg% early in the year. Blake was hitting him up high in the lane, and he was finishing within two inches of the basket to the tune of about 10pts a game, the most offense Joel has had in his career. The main reason that play dried up was probably Joel breaking his hand. That seems logical. Blake is the PG of a team of jump shooters, and two big time rebounding, shot blocking, centers, who don’t have much handle to speak of. If Oden and Joel get their handles working, it is over for the rest of the league. In the starting line up, the only guys who can reliably finish are Roy and Aldridge (a jump shooting PF), and Blake has to give them the ball where they like it. As Batum came on with his three point shot, later in the season, he became a legit option too. And, of course Blake actually did shoot 43% this year “for real”, so he is an option himself, but he’s not going to throw up a bunch of contested threes when he is the fourth scoring option, and he has Roy and Aldridge who are great scorers, though actually he takes a lot of contested threes at the end of the shot clock (when it is a heads up play), and seems to make those even more than his wide open looks. He also is one of the most accurate ally oop passers in the league, again, when guys cut to the basket. How many times did we see him hit Roy for an ally oop. Roy is not the biggest target, but he is the only guy who regularly goes to the basket on the team. Do you logically think that a PG who can hit a SG on the money in the air, right through the other teams bigs, (because they hooked up for that play in the half court set most often) can’t hit a 7’ guy with a entry pass, or a dish in the paint. Blake has no problem passing. He needs someone to pass to. Everyone seems to have it backwards, and not be using logic, when they scapegoat Blake for the nature of Aldridge as a jump shooter, that lack of development of Oden/ Joel’s broken hands/ limited offense, and the teams lack of a solid inside banger PF, which every championship team needs. I hope some of that seems logical. The really illogical thing is the blinders Blazer fans have to the things Blake does so well, and how much he’s done with a talented team that is still in development. I mean seriously, the stat you know you can’t beat on Blake, his shooting %, and you try to explain it away too. You must love Hinrich something fierce, to the point where logic starts to get cloudy.
Great Post, but the Hinrich people won't listen to this
There must be a lot of Jayhaws in Portland. Blake wins in a bunch of categories. The biggest argument for Hinrich is that he is a better defender, and gets to the foul line more. Those are legitimate points, but Blake’s stats are equal or better in almost every category other than those two. And, I’m talking about comparing Hinrich’s time as a full time starter vs Blake this year. So you’re right, this is a case of the grass being greener on the other side, since the two guys compare extremely evenly overall, and Blake already works great with our team for a lot less money. That’s why I keep coming down against this silly trade. I’d be happy to have Hinrich with Blake, but then Bayless would be done, and we would only have one style of PG, who would both be getting older at the same time. Sometimes us armchair GMs just want to trade for the sake of trading, but this assumption of Hinrich as being the savior of our otherwise destitute 54 win team is preposterous. Blake is the biggest scapegoat in NBA history, at least on this site.
Making definitive statements without explaining your reasoning....
…..leaves me not understanding where you are coming from. Why will Portland not win a Championship with Hinrich?
The Lakers are about to win their fourth Championship with an aging PG, Fischer, who is less of a defender and less of a offensive threat than Hinrich. Why would Portland be unable to win with a better complimentary player?
by upper left corner on Jun 12, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
he in reality is probably top 10 all time.
i would say 8-10
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Nope...
this is just a generic list… but I think it proves the point.
Michael Jordan
Magic Johnson
Oscar Robertson
Wilt Chamberlain
Bill Russell
Kareem Abdul-Jabaar
Shaquille O’Neal
Tim Duncan
Larry Bird
Hakeem Olajuwon
I like these names
And I see Lebron getting on that list before Kobe, despite Kobe winning his 1 real ring this year. Kobe is just lucky that Orlando is throwing the series away, because he really isn’t winning it. If Orlando could make some FTs they’d be at 2-2 at worst, possibly 3-1 right now (Lee…)
Give me anyone of these guys in their prime over Kobe. Lebron joins this list easily enough and depending on what Wade/Howard do with their careers they could too, although bumping any of these 10 guys off isn’t easy.
Really splitting hairs to say Kobe isn't a top 10, sadly
he’s inequivocabally a top 12-13 guy right now, and you could make an argument for him over some of these guys.
And if we’re going to penalize him for only winning on his own when the Magic are choking, do we have to penalize Hakeem for only winning during MJ’s retirement, or Oscar’s inability to win a title without Kareem?
As I recall, Hakeem’s late 80’s/early 90’s rockets teams when he had no help spent a lot of time getting knocked out in the first round just like Kobe’s did the last few years.
Now I need to go scratch out my eyeballs for defending the guy.
I'm no fan of Kobe but...
He’s definitely in the top 10. He’s unbelievable, and in his 6th? finals. He’s not as good as MJ, but he’s in the top 10. Labron is amazing too, but he has to win some championships to qualify, and he probably won’t without another marquee player alongside him. Kobe may have won it with Shaq, but MJ won it with Pippen, and Duncan won it with Parker and Ginobli. Now Kobe will win with Gasol most likely, which is an achievement those other guys never had. I hope the Magic can catch fire, but Van Gundy wanted to play Nelson to try and get Howard more involved, and he paid the price for messing with success. I bet Alston’s pissed.
I dont know if I would put Shaq/Big O up there..
over Kobe.. the others you are correct are all better..
however in this scenario, he is top 12 probably.
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Definitely Shaq
Shaq has 4 rings, 3 finals mvp’s, and they had to change the rules of the game because of him. Plus he should have won another MVP.
"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice
Or why not with Blake...
…who has better numbers than Hinrich or Fisher? Thanks for helping to illustrate why we don’t need Hinrich.
It has finally happened.
Dave has gone over to the dark side. He’s been co-opted and coerced by the forces not to be named, that live on the other side of the hill. (You know, where the grass is always greener.)
I guess we knew it had to happen some day. Perhaps it is due to his new amount of free time, thanks to having moderators. Now he can sit in his mountain stead and ponder all that might be, free from the burden of keeping us in line and behaving like adults. And to what end? Long sylloquies (sp?) on trade proposals. Oh Dave, say it ain’t so. Please tell us it is only a momentary case of wild abandon or temporary insanity.
hakkaa päälle !
by timg56 on Jun 12, 2009 7:40 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
This trade may not gut the talent of the team, but it might gut its soul
by Sonic Boom on Jun 12, 2009 7:53 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
How's that?
Rudy is suddenly the soul of the Blazers after one season?
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 12, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
actually it pains me to say this
i would say its probably Trout
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Maybe.
I would say Roy is the soul of the team with Aldridge and Przybilla coming in a distant second and third.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 12, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I dont think aldridge is in the conversation
he is a lone wolf… he is a teammate but not particularly close from what i can gather.. trout and martell keep everyone loose.. roy is obvously the best player. I always got the feeling joel led more by example than in the lockerroom
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I think it's more perception than anything.
Isn’t he extremely close with Outlaw, Sergio, and Roy? He always seems aloof, but when I see interviews he’s laughing a lot and seems really friendly.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 12, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Roy and Outlaw are their own duo
I think Martell is more their third. I am not sure though. He does look friendly in interviews. Where is Ben when you need him.. Come help us finish this line of questioning.. I know LMA is liked, but I dont think he is a leader
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Blazer BFFs
-Roy and Outlaw
-LMA, Rudy, Sergio
-Billa/Blake seem to connect based on their age and philosophy on the game, dunno if they’re friends or not though
-Oden and Bayless might be becoming BFFS?
Frye and Webster seem to get along with everyone, although off the court I think Webster goes with Roy and Outlaw the most.
sounds about right
i think pryz and blake also like the same things, more outdoorsy stuff.
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Oddly enough
We want to trade Outlaw, Sergio, and Blake. Breaking up 3 different groups of BFFs.
As long as we keep Webster though the locker room will be happy!
Just don't lose Caleb Kanales
He works 24 hrs a day to shag balls and keep everyone happy!
Or, we can start using those 500 2nd round picks to draft the best friends of our main guys so they can always feel happy in their bellies.
M.
I heard
that Channing and Blaze (the guy inside the costume) actually hang out a lot. No joke. And somehow I’m not surprised.
Marty is supposed to be a big jokester in the locker room
Maybe everyone’s lil’ brother, but still a jokester who is friends with everyone (from what I have heard/read, of course).
I think LMA started out more of a loner but when he’s opened up on Courtside and stuff he’s been really funny. He’s supposedly just as good of friends with the same people Roy is, and we all remember how Outlaw acted as the conduit between the two so they could have ice cream and American Idol dates or whatever it is they do.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Outlaw is a necessary component for Roy and LMA to hang out outside of basketball, but that is just hunches because I got too much time on my hands and/or I am a loser.
This isn’t something I really worry about though. I know they love Outlaw, I love Outlaw the dude too, but they’re grownups who understand this is the NBA and if we can get someone that fits us better than Outlaw than they will understand. I think he’s a big part of the personality off the court, but not on the court, and they’ll live through it I imagine.
Not that you were saying otherwise of course.
Morty
I really like Hinrich and Prince for the Blazers...
but I can’t escape the fact that there are two underlying premises to it:
1) We are doing this to advance the championship window by 2 years.
2) We are sacrificing team chemistry and relationships for qualities the Blazers already have.
I personally think that while trading for Hinrich, Blake brings enough of Hinrich-like qualities to the table, that the extra $5 million dollars and roster alterations may not be worth the cost.
A stat comparison of Hinrich vs Blake
In regards to Prince, Batum already brings many of his qualities as well (minus experiance). I’m perfectly comfortable waiting for Batum to develop.
Experience is the entire point...
I don’t think you are advancing the window by 2 years as much as you are making the way easier. Our guys need a couple players that know the path to the promised land. If we keep an arsenal of inexperienced players as we approach the window, they risk missing their opportunity because they weren’t sure how to handle it. With injuries and free agents and economics and CBA bargaining, I think the blazers would be shortsighted to not try and accelerate the time table and get our young guys as deep in the playoffs as possible. A fifth year Brandon Roy with a trip to the WCF under his belt is going to be far better than a fifth year Roy with 2 trips to the playoffs, and 2 first round exits. The same goes for every other young guy on our roster….
RUDY > MJ
Thats exactly what I'm talkin about!!!
Despite that one itty bitty alley-opp snafu, just think about the experience Courtney Lee is getting with the Magic this year. Compare that to the playoff experience Nic and Greg picked up this year. Not even close to the same. It would do our young guys good to let Roy, Prince, Kirk, LaMarcus, etc lead them deep for a year or two before they are ready to do it themselves.
They need to learn how to act before we can see them perform.
We don't need Prince to go deep next year
One more regular season win and we’re likely in the WCF finals this year.
In the NBA the best method to improve ....
… is probably to play. That’s how you gain experience. Not through osmosis sitting on the bench watching some other guy play.
Sure, you can learn things by watching. But if you want to excellerate the learning curve, give guys like Batum more court time, not less. Courtney Lee is getting that experience due to the fact he is playing, not sitting on the bench.
hakkaa päälle !
Prince has been there. Hinrich has never been there.
The promise land you speak of.
My issue with this logic
1) you are assuming batum ever becomes as good as price, which may never happen. i know we like to think it will, but history has proven it might not.
“I’m perfectly comfortable waiting for Batum to develop.” I would be too, IF i knew for sure it was going to happen.
2) while team chemistry is important, whos to say these two guys who come in arent great teammates and get along better than before. We dont know that. thats an assumption. while they have some of the same qualities, both are better at those qualities than who we have.
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
1)
1) If you look at Prince’s numbers nothing major jumps out at you. What Prince brings are intangibles.
Per 40, Batum’s production is quite similar to Prince’s, but I never said that Batum ever becomes as good as Prince. Batum has a similar level of production on the court (rookie year) and like Prince, stats aren’t Batum’s game. Batum will become a moderately productive SF with lots of intangibles, like Prince. IMO these expectations are justified. (BTW, I believe the Spurs and Blazers feel the same)
There will always be a risk in developing talent. It is impossible to be SURE that Batum will reach his potential… those are unreasonable expectations. But, with the 2nd youngest team in the league, one needs a certain amount of patience to see the team and its players develop.
So, I agree that Prince would be a solid upgrade (now and for the next 3 years). I think that a reasonable trade would involve Rudy and Pryzbilla… Two players that will win the Blazers a lot of games next year. So, I am perfectly comfortable waiting for Batum to develop.
2)
2) Prince and Hinrich are two of the best locker room guys in the league.
Prince was always the one to calm Rasheed down down when he had his temper tantrums. He is the stickiness of the glue in Detroit’s roster. Hinrich is purportedly a leader, something every team could use.
So, we’ll just trade Outlaw (Roy’s best friend) and Blake (a leader in the Blazer’s locker room) for Hinrich. Then we’ll trade Rudy and Pryz for Prince. Then 50% of the Blazer roster would consist on new players at the Begining of next season.
In this scenario, the players that didn’t get traded would be confused and upset IMO. To some extent, it would would alter and potentially harm the chemistry in that locker room.
The Blazers are in NO RUSH and are in a position where they don’t need to take HUGE RISKS.
Ultimately, it comes down to patience in my mind. The Blazers do have a lot of good young players. The 54 win team will win even more games in the years to come, we just have to wait for them to develop.
I don't see KP
giving up Blake and Outlaw for Hinrich. Chicago would be getting the better end of this deal. The Blazers would end up losing more games and Chicago would win more. If you are going to trade away two BIG pieces of the Blazer puzzle you would hope to get something back that would be able to fill those two spots—and I really don’t know who that player is without going over the salary cap.
Look at it this way
Blake and Outlaw for Hinrich and Webster.
We’re not acquiring Webster, but we are filling Outlaw’s spot with him.
Now, if Chicago would be willing to do something like Blake/Outlaw//24/2nd rounder for Hinrich/Thomas, I would love that as well. Thomas would be a good backup PF for LMA.
An interesting idea...
But I’m not sure Dave discussed the requirements and implications of it thoroughly enough!
Hinrich
is on alot of fans radar, along with Prince. I was on Bloggabull a while back and they would like to trade Hinrich and Deng for Prince.
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
His stare became blank. It was apparent he was back in that place, on the Rose Garden's logo, picking up Aaron Brooks as the crowd nervously roared.
Blake vs. Hinrich
Here’s my take on Steve Blake – he’s become a very good outside shooter who doesn’t turn the ball over a lot. He’s a great teammate and good locker-room guy. He’s a plus to have in the community. But here’s my qustion – does he simply play well or does he make his teammates better?
From what I’ve seen over the last couple of years, Blake is a good player who does not dramatically make his teammates better. And that’s why I think that, if you get a chance to upgrade at the PG spot, you trade him. It’s not that he does anything wrong. It’s just that he’s not the type of player who can lead the team to the next level.
Hinrich is no Chris Paul. He’s not Magic Johnson. But from what I’ve seen of him, he’s a clear upgrade over Blake. When he was starting at PG a couple of years ago, he was making guys like Luol Deng better players. That, more than a long list of stats, is what the team needs right now out of a starting PG.
And defense :-)
Hinrich is easily a top 5 PG defender in the NBA and will be for a few more years.
Blake’s defense gets ripped on a bit too much, but he’s probably in the 20-25 range for starting PGs. Not that good.
Now that I've had time to reconsider ...
the answer is still NO.
Well, I freaked out yesterday, which is not how to win friends and influence people. I’ll try to remain calm today. It’s just that the trade talk, which has been more or less constant around here, now seems much more serious and more substantive, and there’s evidently a real possibility that the Blazers team I’ve come to know and love will soon be gone.
I look forward to having Martell come back better than ever, to seeing Travis continue to perform in the clutch, to witnessing Rudy’s ascent to stardom, to shaking my head in wonder at Joel’s defensive ferocity, to cheering at Steve’s timely 3-pointers, to being utterly astonished by some new wrinkle in Nic’s game. But, whereas I’ve generally been able to ignore the trade machinations and rumors so far, I am now become increasingly worried.
I have no statistics to back me up, no particular expertise in the theory or practice of NBA basketball. I’m just a fan. I like my team, and I believe in them. They are talented and hard-working young men, and I expect them to continue to improve this next year and for years to come. If there are players who are dissatisfied with a marginal role — Sergio and probably Channing at this time, and perhaps one of our small forwards in the future — then of course some kind of personnel move is in order. Otherwise, I see no compelling reason to mortgage the team’s bright future through an attempt to speed the arrival of a championship. That championship will come: I am sure of it. Meanwhile, can’t we just enjoy the journey?
"Just kidding"
We trade for Hinrich but not Prince, let me edit your post.
I look forward to having Martell come back better than ever, to seeing RUDY continue to perform in the clutch, to witnessing Rudy’s ascent to stardom, to shaking my head in wonder at Joel’s defensive ferocity, to cheering at KIRK’s timely 3-pointers, to being utterly astonished by some new wrinkle in Nic’s game. But, whereas I’ve generally been able to ignore the trade machinations and rumors so far, I am now become increasingly worried.
People think Outlaw is an amazing closer or something because of his 6/7 shooting at the buzzer in 5 years. The question is, would we have been in 1 point games if he wasn’t playing in the 4th? Seems to me like Rudy should always be the guy in deep in the 4th, not Outlaw. In those situations you want good and smart players on the court. Starting lineup with Rudy instead of Batum (for now) seems a lot better to me than SL+Outlaw.
Too much of a rush to force the window open.
A taste of success does not mean that it’s now or never. This is still, whether we like it or not a developmental year because of Oden if for no other reason. Add in Bayless, Batum and Webster and its clear that we still don’t know what we have and how good this team already is. I’d even be ok with a slight regression in win total next year IF it meant getting definitive answers to those questions and letting those guys develop.
To follow up - I'm not anti trade, I think
Blake, Sergio, Outlaw could and should be on the table, but I’m not ready to move the rest of the team just yet. Partly sentimental reasons, partly because I’m firmly convinced its too soon. Next year is not THE year.
The problem with these trades
is that most of our guys are on low dollar contracts. The reason for this in the majority of the cases is that they are still on their rookie contracts. The problem with the low dollar contracts is that to make the money side of things work, you have to give up more talent than you receive in return. Our highest paid player plays for the Memphis Grizzlies. Record-wise we were tied # 2 in the West and #5 overall. What happens when we pick up these high dollar contracts, sign our rookies (Roy/Aldridge), and then we’re in the situation Chicago is in with trying to dump players to get under the Luxury Tax threshold. I’m not saying that a trade shouldn’t be made, just that Dollar to value should be the same. If Heinrich costs twice as much as Blake, then we should expect him to produce twice as well as Blake. If not, then wait for the 9mil player that does.
agreed
We are like a township that has found a pefect balance with living with nature, but now we want MORE. So we cut down more trees, build bigger structures…it’s good for awhile, but then the rivers are polluted and we have a 12 man making 10M a year.
Also agreed
KP spoke, saying that the Blazers are not in that scurrying mode of acquiring players. We are in the process of honing who we will become.
Should we trade young, talented and underpaid players for overpaid albeit successful players with limited time left in their careers? That path leads to the present-day Yankees. Or back to the years of TBob. Better to retain the flexibility we now have and build from there. I don’t believe in the all-in then rebuild cycle we see many teams go through. It is too easy to destroy longterm value in that process.
I appreciate Dave’s attempt to tweak the team using the principle of trading multiple players to move up the starting unit’s talent level. But I feel that Rudy does not make sense in that equation — he is too talented to consider basically a throw in. I agree also that our window is another year away.
What I am looking for is a move like trading Sergio to the Knicks, who desperately want him, for a backup 4. Then moving one of our many 3s and perhaps a pick for an improvement at PG.
I agree with those posters who believe that we are already closer than we know, and that we will be in that window for a long time.
My list of pert near untouchables:
Roy & Rudy
Pryz & Oden
LMA
Batum (straight up for Tony Parker,okay, but try to make that work)
Second Tier ripped from my dying fan hands:
Travis
Martell
and maybe Jerryd
My wish list:
PF — Banger backup at the 4
PG — Better defender and better on the break
More playing time at the 3 (yes, we could lose a fan fave)
Good luck KP with the slapfest ’09.
What is the point of flexability....
….if you never flex anything??
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Jun 12, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
So Trade for Trade's sake?
If I’m KP and I stand pat, I’d say I have young talent to do my flexing for me.
Since next year we will still be developing. even in this scenario fitting together again at a minimum, it will take another year to see what moves we have to make to be the team of the future. If we make those moves now, we do so with less information.
The only way it makes sense is if we plan to go over the cap and stay there, and we acquire some major pieces we couldn’t if we wait. But D- Miles shot us in the foot there, already. So it is more like we are on Plan B. Plan B is to sign contracts paying each of these guys what they really deserve and then trade with teams on a more equal footing without having to worry about cap considerations. These are some additional flexibilities we will be missing if we jump too soon.
Personally, I think a minor upgrade at the point and a banger backup 4 are all we need to get there in the next several years.
No but continually holding onto cap space for a rainy day
when there are decent trades to be made doesnt help us
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Not bad....
I like the Kirk deal a lot more than the Prince deal. I agree 100% with what you said about some of Oden’s foul trouble being on the guards. It was like watching matedors out there the way the guards blew by our perimeter defense. GO didn’t stand a chance in most cases. Take away even some of those and GO’s influence on the game instantly goes up.
Heavy price to pay for Prince though…. not sure I’d pull the trigger on that. I would like to see some of the depth packaged up to create minutes for Batum/Rudy/Webster or whoever is left. One thing we must do is package up Sergio in some deal no matter what though. Even if it’s just as a parting gift. Include free shipping.
Hinrich is the only trade that needs to happen
I believe that just adding Hinrich is the way to go. See what Webster and Batum can do together at that 3 spot, and move Outlaw to the 4 for the most part. The Blazers maintain an extremely versatile lineup and manage to keep space for extensions next summer to Roy and Aldridge. The Blazers don’t consolidate to less than 10 players but this is not the year to do that. We have not seen all the pieces on the court together enough to know what we have for sure. Out of Rudy, Batum, Webster, Oden, and Bayless, 3 or 4 of them are going to get better next year. Let’s see who steps up, and then re-evaluate next summer.
I think trade proposals are getting a little too complicated and too many players are getting involved. Let’s make it simple. I am not double checking all these facts so feel free to correct my numbers.
• Blake has a $4 mil contract after July 1st
• The Blazers #24 pick has an approx $1.1 mil contract next year.
• Say the Blazers end up being 6 mil under the cap.
• Hinrich’s salary is $9,5 mil after July 1st.
• Say Chicago ends up being $4Mil over the cap.
• Obeying the 125%+100K rule, the Blazers would only have to put a trade together that equals apporx. $7Mil…($9.5Mil – $100K x .75 is 7.05Mil or $7Mil)
• $7Mil – Blake’s $4Mil minus Pick #24’s $1.1 Mil requires the Blazers to use $2.9Mil of cap space, leaving them with about $3Mil of cap space left - Not that bad.
• Chicago would be saving $4.4Mil in salary next year ($9.5Mil – $5.1Mil), but since they are $4Mil over the cap, Chicago would actually be saving $8.4 Mil total next year - Also not bad.
• Benefits for us are obvious, Hinrich flatout FITS on the Blazers, short-term and long-term, and the Blazers remain flexible for future moves/signings.
• Benefits for Chicago are saving $8.4Mil, and getting a player in Blake who has some of the same triats as Hinrich at the backup PG spot, but someone who is more cost -effective for that position, especially long-term. Chicago also tells Portland who to pick at #24 on draft day.
We all know blockbuster trades are fun to imagine but are hard to pull off. I’m sure Chicago has recieved some better offers TALENT-WiSE for Hinrich, but this trade sure would make sense for them money-wise.
Are there any problems with this trade based on my lack of knowledge on how all the rules work?
As for filling the last two spots on the bench, we could draft a 2nd round PG, or get a cheap veteran PG. We could also bring over Freeland, draft a PF, or re-sign S. Randolph. In the end those are just details.
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
I think what you're saying is closer to what KP is thinking.
I’d love to see KP swing for the fences in a major deal that dramatically reshapes and upgrades the roster, but I don’t think KP is thinking in those terms, because there are few players available for our limited resources who would be worth the gamble and expense. The Hinrich deal is probably the biggest trade KP is seriously considering.
Yet, who knows what KP thinks about Hinrich versus Blake? He may have dismissed that possibility long ago. If so, and this is the last chance to make a major trade before we lose all our cap space, then what big deal, really, is left to do?
I get the feeling that the talk about tweaking, not overhauling, the roster is a lot closer to the truth than a lot of us Trader Bob fans want to admit. Channing, Ruffin, and maybe Sergio might be the only current players not on the roster next season. Maybe we add someone like Rony Turiaf and a draft pick and that’s it.
by MiledAnimal on Jun 12, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions
I bet you all
that the only one going anywhere is Sergio. Blake and Outlaw are a big part of the make-up of the Blazers. All players in the NBA are great players. It comes down to team chemistry, a good coach that the players buy into and the will to win. Bayless needs to be the back-up point. We need to find out if he’s got it or not. A trade can always be made before the trade dead line if he can’t cut it.
by toolman on Jun 12, 2009 10:19 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
true dat
KP loves Blake and Outlaw both. Sure he wants to make the team better, but those guys are only getting traded if KP is bowled over by an offer. – Elgin
VENTURA: It's drowning. It gives you the complete sensation that you are drowning. It is no good, because you -- I'll put it to you this way, you give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders.
Bowlers don't people
People kill people
not sure what this means
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Jun 12, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe I'm referring to the hat worn by Odd Job in Goldfinger.
Maybe. Or maybe I’m talking about notorious serial killer and bowler Al Bundy. Or was it Ted Bundy? Never mind. Does everything have to mean something? And if so, doesn’t something stop meaning anything? But then anything could mean nothing. I hope this clears up everything or at least something.
"Just kidding"
Don't forget Phinious Furbal
A well known cereal killer often referred to as The Forrest Lawn Bowler
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Jun 12, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions
"All players in the NBA are great players. It comes down to team chemistry, a good coach that the players buy into and the will to win."
…………………………….. you’re telling me that the Olympic team wouldn’t win NBA titles if they didn’t have a good coach and if their team didn’t have good chemistry.
My point is
we already have a good thing going. Although there still is some question marks. I think we still need to find out what Bayless, Webster, and Oden have to offer. I agree that if an all-star caliber point guard is dropped in our lap we take him. An all-star point guard probably gets us into the Western Conference Finals. Do you think Hinrich is good enough to get us there?
Yes
We were 1 regular season win away from getting the 2 seed, avoiding Houston, and making it to the WCF. With Hinrich, we easily get a few more regular season wins and we don’t even fear Houston quite as much.
The real issue will be the Lakers next year if we get Hinrich. (He can guard Kobe most of the game, leaving Roy fresh at the end to guard him.)
If Oden improves even a little next year, we get 3 more wins
Hinrich is not the magic bullet. He’s not better than Blake. Oden is the key. He has to get better on offense and defense. If he keeps his hands up, he stays in games. If he catches and goes to the basket without bringing the ball down to get stripped, he scores a lot more. Hinrich can’t do that for Oden, and neither can Blake.
I agree we were one win, or two losses away from a better match up in the play-offs, but Hinrich wouldn’t have made any difference against the Rockets. You don’t know that Kirk would add wins, because what he brings is very similar to Blake, but Blake makes clutch plays too. Blake did some things that helped win and lose some games, just as most players on the team have, and Kirk would too. Considering he’s never been on a 54 win team in 7 years in a weak East, I’m not so sure he’s the difference maker. He did get to the second round of the post season in his best year, when his team beat the Heat without injured Dwaye Wade, and then lost to the Pistons in the second round. The following year they didn’t make the playoffs at all, with a roster that had quite a bit of talent, size and athleticism. If Kirk is so great at making the players around him better, and generating wins, why did the Bulls with Gordon, Ben Wallace, Deng, Duhon, Gooden, Larry Hughes, Joe Smith, Simmons, Noah, Shannon Brown, Thomas, Sefolosha, Nocioni only get 33 wins, in the Eastern Conference? It’s not an amazing roster, but they have size and plenty of guys who can score, and championship experience from Wallace, vets, some young talent. Hinrich ran the team with more talent than the year before to less wins. Can you with a straight face tell me he will automatically add wins to our team?
We will win more next year, but it won’t be because of adding a mid-level PG to replace our current mid-level PG who works well for us. We’ll win more if our inside game is born this year, which is either going to come from our centers and forwards improving their post play, or it will come from the addition of a solid post player to the team. Until we have a chance at an all-star PG, we’re fine.
Welcome to Blazers Edge, Dave.
Great post.
I see you must be new around here though. For future reference, we have a “Trade Drawer” where you can post short, quick proposals like this one.
"Friend to all women, lover to none" --Broyposse
by prezofdeath on Jun 12, 2009 10:24 AM PDT reply actions 4 recs
I love Blake and Rudy as much as the next guy
but these trades make perfect sense. Admittedly, it is still far fetched to think we could get both Hinrich and Prince, but if we could, we should. With one caveat: we can’t give up Pryz. I won’t waist time explaining this last point other than to say that Oden has enormous potential but also enormous risks (still, unfortunately). So we keep Pryz (he also seems to be the captain of toughness, which is worth its weight in vintage Pistons "Bad Boys" t-shirts). So, the reasoning beyond going after both of these trades, composed in partial response to sentiments expressed above.
1. Hinrich for Blake: Honestly, this seems like a no-brainer. I understand other’s hesitation above; there are certainly some risk factors. Hinrich may be Blake 2.0 with higher paycheck (which seems to be the complaint). Others have already done a decent job debating this, and I would only add this: Blake has been playing under optimal circumstances, while Hinrich has not. If Hinrich appears to be just another version of Blake with slightly (if not significantly) better defensive skills while playing on the Bulls, then imagine what he could do on the Blazers. Sure he isn’t Williams or Paul, but he fits our style of play and improves on Blake in the necessary areas. Or let me put it this way: for all of you putting up selected stats from the past two years, what do you think Blake’s stats would look like on the Bulls? He would have less wide-open threes for one. And, given their style of play, I think you would see a decline in his assists and a slight rise in his TOs. Of course, you would also see a decline in his minutes, which would pull all his stats down. And on top of all that he would be playing the majority of his minutes with the second unit (go look at their roster and tell that second unit is going to hook Blake up with easy assists and open threes). That’s no knock on Blake, I wish we could keep him. But if their stats appear similar, and on closer inspection given context they are not, then just remember that we are absolutely maximizing Blake’s potential. I don’t think the same could be said of the Bulls and Hinrich.
2. Prince for Outlaw, Rudy, plus ???: As Dave said, this is a more complicated case. Not just in terms of salaries and exceptions, but also in terms of value going out versus value coming in. Rudy leaving would hurt. Like, a lot. If he stays, there are certainly some good arguments for three guards on the floor to maximize his worth. However, he is a true shooting guard. Straight up. I loved his game and what he brings, but he is not point guard or small forward, and never will be. This leaves him behind Roy for, basically, the rest of his career. It almost certainly assures that we will never get everything from Rudy that we can. Sure, I can live with this, but it raises two questions: 1) Can we get that value back in a trade that works for us, and 2) If we don’t, do we really see Rudy here long term when his contract is up. Maybe the answer to both of these questions is no, and we should just enjoy the Spanish goodness while we can (like an Almodovar movie that you know will end, but still relish until the credits). Obviously, I think that snagging Prince would be a good return on value. Will Rudy be better than Prince in 5-7 years? Without a doubt. Will we care if we have some championships under our belt? Hardly. Points 3 and 4 going on to make this argument.
3. The Short Term: Even those arguing against these trades often concede that it might make us better for a couple years. Of course it would. We may no longer go eleven or twelve deep, but that doesn’t win in the playoffs. Ever. The key, it seems to me, is having eight or nine guys with some flexibility. If our starting lineup looks like this:
PG Hinrich
SG Roy
SF Prince
PF Aldridge
C Oden
(Oh, wow, can we all just stop and look at that lineup. I mean seriously, we could have starters who, by the end of their respective careers, had all played on the USA Olympic Team. Ok, anyway …) That is a lineup I would happily match up against ANY other team in the league. So what if Bayless backs up at point and, if need be at SG (if Hinrich is on the floor, Bayless can guard the opposing PG while Hinrich picks up the two), and suddenly his tweener status starts to work for and not against us. Batum backs up the SF and possibly some SG. While Prince could possibly log some minutes at the four (and I love the thought of Batum, Prince and Oden/Pryz on the floor defensively), I admit that we are still in need of the elusive "banger." But that is another problem. Of course, we kept Pryz, so we have he and Oden at the center. Maybe we keep Webster. Maybe we pick someone else up. But for a consolidated lineup I love where this is taking us! It relies on Bayless making some steps, so the haters can have at on this point.
4. FINALLY, The (Really) Long Term: The way some people discuss making moves to improve in the short term juxtaposes two seemingly static ideas: that there is a "two year window" and a "five year window," and that sacrificing the latter for the former would be a huge mistake. Well, if it involved this sacrifice, then yes, it would be a huge mistake. But there are a few things that disrupt this logic. First of all, with our super-youngsters like Bayless and Batum backing up what would be our older starters like Hinrich and Prince, we have already set up a changing of the guard. Look at any dynasty in the NBA and note the way certain pieces inevitable move. You can’t put together a team for a static 5-7 year run. And even if you could, where would you be in eight years. Stop leveraging my children’s chance at watching a winning team! Ok, forget my kids, they are going to have to have these debates for themselves. What I am saying is that we talk as if we can’t add anyone once we resign Roy, Aldridge and eventually Oden and others. But this is not true. Perhaps we won’t be able to make plays on high priced vets, but we won’t need to. Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Batum and Bayless will be the vets. We will be looking to grab the next Batum and Rudy in the draft, and we will be able to plug them into a system that allows them to develop. This is our last chance to grab vets for a while, so let’s make a play and get them. I think it will help us in the long, medium and short term.
So, sure, this probably won’t happen. The Hinrich trade is far more likely and, for that matter, safe. But in the dream world we are forced to inhabit between seasons, I would pull the trigger on both these players.
by unemployedreflection on Jun 12, 2009 10:27 AM PDT reply actions 5 recs
There seems to be a fear that pushing the window forward will hurt us in the long run.
I just don’t see it personally. Nate knows it, he has said it for a couple years now, he wants veterans. This young team can only go so far on talent alone. Somebody has to step in and teach them how to win and how to win big. I think of it as the James Jones effect, except on a bigger scale. Jones was a great 3 pt shooter for us and a so so player. But he played on our extremely young team that needed a vet presence. If you look at our record that year with James playing and when he didnt, it was a night and day difference. The Blazers weren’t significantly better with Jones because he was a super talented player, they were better because he was smart, savy, crafty, and confident. He was a vet for us, and it made a world of difference.
The other thing that sort of bugs me about the fear of getting older as a team is that its like people think KP won’t get fresh blood in the upcoming drafts. Two of our biggest tradable assets(Rudy and Batum) were acquired with late first round picks. We might lose some young talent now, but I trust KP to keep a fresh crop of prospects lined up for a long time with his player evaluation skills, and ability to maximize his assets and resources during the draft. Look at the Spurs, they are constantly plucking gems out of late firsts and second round picks. It can be done, and in KP I trust. He will get a replacement for Prince when his time here is up, he will do the same to replace Hinrich.
The most important thing the Blazers can do is get Roy/LMA/Oden some veteran help. Besides, when/if Bayless/Outlaw/Webster/Rudy/Blake all become as good as everyone hopes and thinks, how is Nate going to get them the 30 minutes on the floor each player deserves? Unhappy campers and lost assets through free agency is the likely outcome in that scenario. You don’t want every position to have two young and upcoming players that are set to peak in the same years. Ideally, if you have a wily vet at pg that is in his prime, you have a young and upcoming guy right behind him trying to play catchup and win the old man’s spot. Roy/LMA/Oden are young and going to own their positions respectively. That leave pg and sf up in the air. We have two young studs in Bayless and Batum that probably aren’t ready to be the guys at their position for another couple of years. Doesn’t it make perfect sense to get those guys a vet to mentor and usher them into their eventual role 2-3 years down the road? And in the meantime, you are making our big 3’s life easier and fielding a much better basketball team. Trading for a starting pg and a starting sf makes a lot of sense to me….
RUDY > MJ
I fully agree, we need to open our window now with better starters at PG and SF
First of all, great posts by myemic23 and unemployedreflection. I agree that we can’t be afraid to bring in slightly aged veterans if they fit our needs like butter and syrup on pancakes, especially when we have talented guys (Bayless, Batum) waiting in the wings that need seasoning. With seasoning, Bayless and Batum could eventually help us win the championships we envision, but they aren’t there yet and we can’t afford to assume that they will get there. This is especially true when you consider that adding proven pieces at SG and SF now could make us legitimate contenders next year and probably for 2 more years after that (instant 3-year window).
Brandon and Lamarcus are ready to roll for a championship, and having Joel and Greg at C will be formidable if Oden improves enough to become the undisuputed starter. If Hinrich and Prince (or maybe Hinrich and Turkoglu) did fall our way, a championship aura and confidence would instantly invade the team and the city. We would be granted a 3-year championship window with the likelihood that Hinrich and Prince could slide to effective backup roles as their efficiency tapers in comparison to Bayless and Batum. I am liking more and more the idea of having good wing defenders to surround Brandon with because it’s exactly what he needs and it’s exactly what Nate wants, not to mention the veteran presence they bring to the table. I also like the fact that Hinrich and Tayshaun don’t shoot a high volume of shots, but are capable scorers. They would mesh well with the nucleus of Brandon, Lamarcus, and Greg.
I think that acquiring Hinrich is worth the risk, even in the face of some perceived uncertainties about his game. His role with the Bulls has been hampered by a lack of confidence within the organization, injury, and the emergence of Derrick Rose. Hinrich might turn out to be only a slightly better version of Blake offensively, but his ability to play defense is potentially very valuable to our quest for a title. A chance for him to reload as a starter in a new system, and resummon the stellar all-around game and leadership skills we know he has, could pay off huge in the near and mid-term. The only limiting factor to acquiring him is Kevin Pritchard’s reportedly close relationship with Steve Blake. I think Blake is in KP’s long term plans so I don’t see KP sending away Blake away in a trade for Hinrich, and I also don’t see us getting Hinrich without giving up Blake, but I could be wrong.
Prince, Defense, Etc...
Only thing I am concerned about Tayshaun being one this team… Does Batum see how effective he is & think “I don’t need to bulk up”?
Defense. Imagine if we had an elite defender playing the 25mpg that Rudy is currently taking, my thought yesterday was Mikael Pietrus who would help our perimiter defense exponentially.
Offseason:
PG Options: Mike Conley(T)
SG Options: Terrence Williams(D)
Forward Options: Ronnie Turiaf(T) - Damion James(D), Taj Gibson(D), Kevin Seraphin(D)
by TheGreatDane17 on Jun 12, 2009 10:48 AM PDT reply actions
So you all writing off Martell?
Don’t you want to see him play for us this year? Similiar to Bayless, we need to find out if he’s going to fish or cut bait.
however, once a player plays well on the big stage
he becomes highly overvalued. someone is gonna pay WAY too much for him this coming year
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
He is not a free agent
so if we get him in a trade, we get his same 5mil contract(much better then prince in that regard) and he already has bird rights, meaning we could go over the cap to sign him when his contract is up, if we wanted. How far can you go over the cap, by using the bird exception?
Offseason:
PG Options: Mike Conley(T)
SG Options: Terrence Williams(D)
Forward Options: Ronnie Turiaf(T) - Damion James(D), Taj Gibson(D), Kevin Seraphin(D)
by TheGreatDane17 on Jun 12, 2009 9:40 PM PDT up reply actions
well in that case
i imagine his performance in this years playoffs means his trade value just skyrocketed.
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions
How about we listen to Roy and get defense
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=lnz839
Getting back Turiaf lessens the blow of losing Zilla. Plus look at this
Oden/Turiaf/draft/free agent
LMA/Turiaf/draft/free agent
Prince/Batum
Roy/Rudy
Hinrich/Bayless
Pietrus is much better at stopping LeBron/Kobe
Might as well go after him & not sacrifice Batum’s development.
Offseason:
PG Options: Mike Conley(T)
SG Options: Terrence Williams(D)
Forward Options: Ronnie Turiaf(T) - Damion James(D), Taj Gibson(D), Kevin Seraphin(D)
by TheGreatDane17 on Jun 12, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
ummm
i dont know if 33 ppg 8 ast and 5 reb counts as stopping kobe at all…but his 29.5 6.5 and 6.5 against detroit doesnt really shout at me either
by jbiermann88 on Jun 12, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
thanks Dave
for a well considered trade post.
I don’t think I can give up Przybilla for anything right now – not until Oden averages 36 minutes a game. Then, maybe. – Elgin
VENTURA: It's drowning. It gives you the complete sensation that you are drowning. It is no good, because you -- I'll put it to you this way, you give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders.
I wouldn't trade him dor D Howard!
Not a chance. No way. Now how. I am very, very stupid though.
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
by hobobob on Jun 12, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
anything we could get.
Cleveland ain’t sending us LeBron for Joel. – Elgin
VENTURA: It's drowning. It gives you the complete sensation that you are drowning. It is no good, because you -- I'll put it to you this way, you give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders.
call me clarevoyant (sp?)
but I know, without calling. – Elgin
VENTURA: It's drowning. It gives you the complete sensation that you are drowning. It is no good, because you -- I'll put it to you this way, you give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders.
I hate to write this but.....
I would like to see Trevor Ariza at small forward. His contract is up and we can put around 4.5 to 5 million a year to him and see if he bites. Like I said i did not want to write this due to what he did to Rudy last year.
Lakers would be insane not to keep him
But I wouldn’t mind Ariza at all. Of course that would mean that Outlaw + Rudy or Martell would have to be gone.
So, if we pulled some kind of crazy trade with like Blake + Outlaw + Rudy getting us a crazy PG. I’d be fine with getting Ariza to play SF with Batum and moving MW to SG.
Why would you hate to write that?
Ariza made a silly play at the ball, but I don’t think he intentionally tried to hurt anyone. He later apologized to Rudy and I don’t think there’s any ill will between them. The next time we played the Lakers I remember seeing Rudy slap him on the butt and smile, so I don’t think they hate eachother or anything.
Ariza would be my favorite SF target besides Gerald Wallace. I love the guy even if he is a Laker.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 12, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Would you see KP...
Going after Odom as a back up here in Portland ? Would L.A. sign him too with Ariza ?
by alexnikozach on Jun 12, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd be all for getting Prince and hinrich aas long as we don't give up Joel. I'm not ready to pass the reins to Greg yet. Joel is too valuable still I think.
I think this team plus Prince, but the blazers plus prince and minus Joel is a lateral move at best, and maybe a step back, with more emphasis on perimeter play rather than in the paint, where games in the playoffs are won and lost.
That being said if we could get Prince for Rudy, maybe Bayless, Marty, Maybe Outlaw, picks, cash, and the kitchen sink I would be ecstatic…but I think Joel is still near untouchable on this team, unless we would be getting another very capable back-up center in return.
Minute breakdown if we only traded for Hinrich
Looking at the minutes from last season, the averages are skewed because of injuries to give us 38 extra minutes total per game, our scrubs last year got about 8 minutes per, so that leaves us with 30 extra minutes per game if we have approximately the same # of injuries next season. I’m not going to get into rotations. Looking purely at averages from last year and the improvements we expect to see next year, the way i see it going down is like this:
Extra Minutes
Hinrich (34) Bayless (18) + 4
Roy (36) Rudy (24) +12
Batum (20) Webster (28) -
Aldridge (38) Outlaw (26) +16
Oden (26) Przy (20) – 2
Total = 30
Compared to last year, if you cancel out minutes from the same players you are left with:
‘08-’09 ’09’10
Blake (32) Hinrich (34)
Sergio (15) Webster (28)
Frye (11)
This is the difference in player talent we will be replacing. This does not even take into account all the more production we get from the same players who will likely improve next year.
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
Well to get Hinrich we'd possibly have to part with Outlaw
Minutes would also change slightly too.
Hinrich (32) Bayless (16) = 48
Roy (36) Rudy (25) = 61
Batum (20) Webster (20) = 40
LMA (36) Someone (12) = 48
Oden (26) Billa (22) 48
So still up a few too many minutes here. Naturally all regular season games are different though. I’d like to see both Batum and Webster get 24 minutes, but Rudy/Roy need time together. As I’ve advocated before I’d love a Hinrich/Rudy/Roy starting lineup, with Bayless/Webster/Batum off the bench.
We don't need to move Outlaw to get Hinrich
See my comment 10 comments up
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
Hinrish I can see, but is upgrading from Batum to Prince worth Rudy/Blake/Outlaw...NO!
by rip_city_swagger on Jun 12, 2009 11:51 AM PDT reply actions
Ya
I think Rudy is a deal breaker for me in the Prince deal. So is Joel. If you can make it happen with any combo of Outlaw/Webster/Sergio/picks/cash, I would be all over it…
RUDY > MJ
Yep
Much as I like Hinrich/Prince, Rudy/Joel/+ is just a little bit too much.
"HA HA HA HA HA
I'm not laughing, I'm just listing the five ugliest Blazers ever."
- rockingharder
Definately giving up to much in that scenario...
I really like Blake but I am starting to believe Kirk might be a good fit because of some very educated and well worded posts from many of you. I’m not sure anyone is persuasive enough to convince me that giving up even one of the two guys (Rudy or Joel) plus other assets makes sense to get Prince for a couple years.
I also really want Bayless to develop but am not sure I have the confidence in him to make him our sole back up at the point. I know about the work ethic and the amazing physicality and his tenacity… what I DON"T know is if he’ll ever be a PG in the NBA. After all he’s never really been one before… has he?
Giving up our young talent for Hinrich and Prince is a BAD IDEA!
As Balian showed on an earlier post, Hinrich was much worse on offense and only a slight upgrade on defense compared to Blake, it is not worth the trade. Blazers would be giving up too much to get an equal or inferior player.
Dave’s trade ideas involve giving up too much young talent for only a slight improvement, if any. Why do some fans under-value their own players that other teams would love to have. Did we forget that we won 54 games with the youngest active players?
Why overhaul the team? Only fine tune it!
Untouchables:
Roy, Rudy, Oden, LMA, Batum, Pryz
Relunctantly Trade from my cold dead hands only for a major obvious upgrade
Outlaw, Bayless, Webster, Blake
Trade away!
Sergio, #24 pick, Frye (love him as a person),
Remember, we would be a lot worse of a team without Outlaw’s offense, Blake’s 3 pt and smarts, Pryz’s defense.
Don’t trade away future long term talent for minimal short term gains!
I'm sorry, but Blake is NOT better than Hinrich on Offense
and Hinrich is MUCH better on defense than Blake.
a.) Blake is the same age as Hinrich, and they both have 6 years experience.
b.) Hinrich has a better career: rebound rate, assist rate, steal rate, block rate, steal rate, offensive, defensive and total win share percentage, and a lower turnover rate.
c.) Blake had a CAREER YEAR this past year and still had lower overall stats than Hinrich’s career averages.
d.) You’re severely underestimating the superiority of Hinrich’s defense: Blake’s offensive and defensive ratings: 108 (higher is better) and 111 (lower is better). Hinrich’s? 107 and 105, respectively.
"Respect everyone, fear no one." -TP
LOL
you said steal rate twice!
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
Perhaps because that's the maybe the only statistic where Hinrich outshines Blake.
And we won’t comment on the fact he fouls almost twice as much.
hakkaa päälle !
Nope.
defensive adjusted plus-minus
“Kirk Hinrich (-6.09) re-established himself as one of the league’s better defenders in the backcourt after missing some time with an injury, though you wish he wouldn’t leave his feet quite so much. I’ve never thought quite as highly of Andre Miller (-4.40) or Raymond Felton (-2.36), but each defended both backcourt spots more than adequately and their strong adjusted plus-minus numbers warrant a shout-out here, too "-Hollinger
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 12, 2009 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Not a good argument.
You are comparing Hinrich’s 6 years as a starter plus 1 year as a back up, to Blake’s 3 1/2 years as a back up and 2 1/2 as a starter. Notice how Kirks best year was his fourth year as starter. A guy has to build momentum as a starter. Blake’s best year so far has been this year. His first year as a full time starter where he didn’t have to trade time with Jack or Telfair. Blake’s best year is still to come. He hasn’t had the same chance Kirk did going to a lottery team and starting as a rookie on a team where he had to be one of the top scoring options. If Blake has a few years to start, he will be just as productive if not more. Blake can score a lot more than he does. He has done it when he’s had to, (21 pts against Boston, while Roy was injured) but he is a pass first PG interested in moving the team to victory rather than padding his stats. Hinrich is a good player, but the idea that he is more than a very slight upgrade over Blake just doesn’t hold water. That’s a trade you walk away from. Sorry guys.
I prefer rumor mongering than speculation - these posts drive me crazy
Oh Basketball gods brings us some true news so we may beat down our adversaries.
Speed kills! And you can't teach it!!
And Bayless has it, just like Parker, CP, Williams they are great because they can always get theirs with speed, power and quickness. Again, Bayless possess all of the above, Hinrich not so much of any of those skill sets. All Bayless needs is the playing time to learn how to get others involved, right now, we have that player in Roy, and he’s great at it. I’m just not sold on Kirk Hinrich, he better than Blake, but by how much? Seems to me he’s just a slight up-grade, and given time, Bayless will be mentioned in the same breath with all of the great gaurds in the west.
2-4 the who
Agree
Bayless needs playing time to learn the position. He has the physical skills, and the desire to learn.
Would you trade Bayless for Stephan Curry? Curry is the better shooter, scorer, very quick. Same height. I might do it.
I like Curry
but I wouldn’t do that deal. – Elgin
VENTURA: It's drowning. It gives you the complete sensation that you are drowning. It is no good, because you -- I'll put it to you this way, you give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders.
In a second
Curry is a prime time baller. I’d take him over Rubio, and trade Bayless for him too. He’s smart, a ridiculous shooter, and a team player. That’s the move we should be talking about, not a lateral move to Hinrich to waste money and gain nothing.
one thing is for sure
if nothing happens the the PG front then we know Pritchard is making a choice to commit to Bayless
If you think Bayless can be that guy
Then Hinrich is also a good bridge between the now and the Bayless era, since he has some learning to do before he is a sure-fire starting PG.
I think he will be one, but he isn’t one right as we speak, and right now we would like an upgrade at the PG spot. Hinrich is that upgrade that is gettable, and Bayless can play behind him and keep learning the ropes.
Mort
Actually KP already has that bridge to Bayless in place.
It’s Steve Blake. Why trade for the overly similar Hinrich at six million more. He’s just not a serious upgrade. Come to grips with it. Bayless will be the future, or we will make a move for the right guy in the future. Hinrich is not a guy who will put this team over top.
Really???...
Bayless will be mentioned in the same breath as all the great guards in the West???!!!!… I don’t really know if I buy that. I’d love that to be true but I just don’t see it yet…
The guy is athletic, determined, strong and young… but has never been a real PG at any level let alone the NBA. I’m willing to give him time to develop but I think we should try to be at least a little realistic.
3 years from now...if we make the trade...
Hinrich will be old and slow. Prince will be retired or sitting on the bench.
Rudy will be an All Star in Detroit , Outlaw will be starting in Chicago averaging 16 pts, 8 reb,
Don’t trade young talent for old average players
Prince is already a lot better than Outlaw...
and outlaw is at his peak. he is a good player but prince is a great player
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions
?
3 years from now, Prince will be 33, and Hinrich will be 31, neither should be retired or “old and slow” just yet.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
exactly. They will likely start hitting the decline at that point...
But how convenient it will be having Bayless and Batum right there on the incline covering up the lost ground…
RUDY > MJ
just and FYI
Here is a sampling of NBA players who are playing very well even though they are old and slow, (over 30)
Andre Miller 33
Rafer Alston 32
Derek Fisher 34
Billups 32
Raja Bell 32
Antawn Jamison 32
Dirk 30
Kobe 30
Hedo 30
Timmay 33
Manu 31
Paul P. 31
Jason Terry 31
Antonio McDyess 34
Battier 30
M. Bibby 31
Ray Allen 33
S. Nash 35
KG 33
Grant Hill 36
I see no reason why both Hinrich and Prince can be exceptional players for us for the next 2-3 years, and quality role players for the 2 or 3 years after that.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
Prince is worse than almost every one of those guys
And not everyone ages/wears down at the same rate. Randy Johnson is 90 and still pitching at a good level. Many guys are done when they are 35, even barring big injuries.
Prince impressed in the 07-08 season. But 08-09… not so much.
I don't understand
why you think Prince was bad this year compared to his previous years.
He shot 45% from the field, his career percentage is 46%, in 07-08 he shot 44.8%.
He shot 39.7% from 3 this year, his career percentage is 37%, in 07-08 he shot 36%.
He averaged 3.1 assists, up from 2.6 in his career, in 07-08 he dished out 3.3 per game.
He averaged 5.8 rebounds, up from 4.7 in his carrer, in 07-08 he grabbed 4.8 per game.
He averaged 77.8% on his FT’s, up from 77.5% in his career, in 07-08 he shot 76.8%.
He averaged .6 blocks, the same for his career, in 07-08 he blocked .4 shots per game.
His turnovers and his steals were all with in .1 of his career numbers, and his 07-08 numbers.
In fact the only big difference I can find is that in 08-09 he average 37.3 mins per game, while his career avg is 33.4 and in 07-08 he played “only” 32.9 mins per game.
His PER lost .5 going from 15.57 in 07-08 to 15.09 in 08-09, mainly from his increased playing time, yet even stat production. What this says to me, is that playing him more than 33 mins a game at this point in his career is not worth it, at least for a whole season. Looking at his stats he seems to still have it.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
Well...
It’s more his total lack of improvement that hasn’t impressed me in the last 3-4 years. He’s stayed consistently solid, but he’s never going to be better than he is now. In 2-3 years we can expect him to be declining in skill, and this is when LMA/Oden/Roy will be in their primes.
I would much rather pay 5 million and take a chance that 1 of Batum/Webster work out than pay Prince 9-10 million and hope that his game doesn’t drop a ton in the next 2 years.
You’re right that his stats haven’t really changed in 4 years, but the reason I wasn’t as impressed was probably because I expect more out of players until I think they’ve reached their peaks. I didn’t think Prince was at his peak in 07-08 but it turns out he was.
On that same note. If Roy has an identical season next year I’ll be pleased because his season was pretty awesome considering our pace. He is a top 5-10 player for the next 6 years if he just stays the same. However, if LMA stays the same next year I will be disappointed because I think he still has room to grow.
Blake/Roy/Outlaw/Przybilla are probably near/at their peaks.
LMA/Oden/Bayless/Rudy/Sergio/Batum/Webster should keep growing, if they don’t, I’m disappointed.
Hope that made sense!
I just don't see why you think his skills will be declining in 2-3 years
The great thing about Prince is that his current production is not dependent upon having amazing athleticism, which is generally what starts to decline once a player hits his early 30’s. While he is athletic, his defense is much more predicated on his basketball IQ, positioning, and long arms. Looking at his offense, he has a pretty good post game and shoots well from three, but is not too much of a slasher; again, these are things that are not dependent upon athleticism. I can see him being very effective for AT LEAST 3-4 more years, exactly when Batum will be coming into his own, at which point Prince becomes the backup. Sounds perfect to me.
I see your points
I just don’t think you are seeing it the way I see it, let me try to explain what I am seeing better.
I don’t think Hinrich or Prince will be the long term pieces for the Blazer’s to win championships, I believe Bayless and Batum will eventually take over the starters roles and be those pieces. But that won’t happen for at least 2 years in my opinion, which is ok because both Batum and Bayless will be on their rookie deals, (cheap deals!) until that time anyways. We can also add that both Hinrich and Prince’s current deals expire around then as well. Both Hinrich and Prince should be starting the downside of their careers at that point, and may choose to stay with the team in a back up, role player role, or they may choose to move on, in which case the team can sign new back ups or may even have drafted someone who can earn those spots. But in the next 2 to 3 years, getting both Hinrich and Prince on the Blazers would make them a championship contender in my book. If the Blazers can open the window next year, without causing their currently projected window, (starting 2 years from now) to close sooner then they should go for it, and this deal qualifies as such.
Losing Rudy hurts, I love him, and I want to keep him, so I would hope KP would do everything he could to pull this trade off without losing him. But if he had to be included I would still pull the trigger, I don’t want a GM who is afraid to make a move like the Bulls where a few years back.
The second thing I am seeing, is that even though both Hinrich and Prince make about or above $10 million on their current deals, their contracts will not effect the Blazers cap in a bad way. Prince is signed for 2 more years, and Hinrich is signed for 3 more years, with salaries of $10.3 and $9.5 million next season. If we use Dave’s trade idea of Martel, Outlaw, and Rudy, +filler if needed. Take out those 3 salaries and add in Hinrich and Prince you have a Blazer salary cap figure of about $58.2 million which should be over the salary cap, but under the luxury tax threshold. This would leave the Blazers with only one hole that I can see, and that is at the back up PF. The Blazers would have had to renounce their exceptions to make the Hinrich trade, so they can’t sign a FA that way, but they can sign a player for the league minumim or try and convince Joel Freeland to come over with the added incentive of almost guarenteed playing time. The point is, adding Hinrich and Prince’s salaries to the payroll do not put the Blazers in salary cap hell, but far from it. After next season Mile’s $9 million comes off the books which will help keep the team under or just at the Luxury tax threshold depending on where it lands even though Roy and LMA’s extentions will kick in, (the team would go over the tax cap for sure if they give LMA a max deal, but I am hoping the do not).
Then the next year Joel’s contract is up, (assuming he picks up his player option for 2010-2011), and Greg is set to be extended. So while the Blazers will be over the salary cap, they will still be players in the FA market with their exceptions and in the trade market with the talent they have on the roster, and quality contracts they have on the payroll.
I can’t wait to root for a team of
Hinrich/Bayless
Roy/Batum/2009 draft pick?
Prince/Batum
Lma/Freeland
Oden/Joel
That is a good team, and a scary team if Oden comes back like we all hope he will next year.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
If Outlaw is starting for the Bulls that means they will be in the lottery
That Steve Nash is exactly the same as Kirk Hinrich, but worse.
by NBA Observer on Apr 8, 2009 12:23 PM CDT
by Ozzie Montana on Jun 12, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Also, 3 years from now...
Portland fans will be wanting Hinrich out because he can’r guard CP3, Brooks, Conley, Curry. He will be the 2nd or 3rd PG off the bench. Prince will be sitting on the bench because hopfully Batum will be starting.
Why trade good young talent for bench players?
Because good young talent is a gamble
and in those three years we’d have just as good a chance of winning a title as anyone.
it sounds to me like
you are in favor us this team doing no trades?
But if they don’t trade one of Batum/outlaw/Webster than one of them won’t be playing, is that want we all want?
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I guess that is an option
But i believe we have seen enough to know that Batum is the starter long term, so that leaves Outlaw and Webster. Of which Outlaw will bring more in return in a trade, so I feel we should trade him.
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Let's say Outlaw loses that battle
(which is what I think may happen)
His value is not much lower and we got unhappiness raiding our shores.
If you can sell high on Outlaw, wouldn’t it make sense to do it now?
M.
not much lower = NOW much lower
That changes my post substantially, sorry.
Basically, what USMCR3049 sez.
M.
We still need to see if Webster's foot is okay.
It could turn into a chronic problem. Lets hope thats not the case.
I am in favor of trading Batum, Outlaw, Webster,
But we should get good value for one of them. They are better players than just as a “throw in” to sweeten a deal.
We could trade 2 of them, but we better get somebody that will replace the points and rebounds that they both provide combined.
ok
so we agree a trade is needed, now we are just talking about price…
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
Outlaw + Blake = good young talent?
Blake is older than Hinrich
Outlaw has been in the NBA 6 years now and is still making rookie mistakes. I’d rather have Webster/Batum at the SF spot.
And in 3 years Portland will have given Bayless or some other PG time to develop and hit his prime. Hinrich will then be the best backup PG in the NBA if he is willing to resign with us for less.
Curious How this addresses the toghness question
I think it clearly improves our defense, but I don’t have a sense of how it improves our toughness, which, from Roy to KP to most people here agree is a need for this team to fill. Does the improved defense equate to greater toughness? I don’t know. Thoughts?
Interrogation Cop: What are you saying?
Fenster: I said he'll flip you.
Interrogation Cop: He'll what?
Fenster: Flip you. Flip ya for real.
by Cyclops@Centercourt on Jun 12, 2009 12:52 PM PDT reply actions
Toughness is a stupid concept
Good defense is good defense, whether you play “tough” or not. That said, Hinrich is a lot tougher than Blake anyway. Outlaw is just about the least tough guy on the team, so that’s addition by subtraction.
However you define toughness
as I mentioned, both KP and Roy seem to buy into the concept of it. I think hard nose defense is a form of toughness, so it would seem to address it that way, but I was curious if that was enough. I agree that TO’s laid back attitude seems to extend to the court — to his (the team’s) detriment.
Interrogation Cop: What are you saying?
Fenster: I said he'll flip you.
Interrogation Cop: He'll what?
Fenster: Flip you. Flip ya for real.
by Cyclops@Centercourt on Jun 12, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Hinrich is a tough player
I think it would for sure add to our toughness.
Besides Oden and Pryz, we’ll get extra toughness from our backup PF, which is a spot that (in my opinion) is one of the easiest to fill in basketball.
Let’s just get Mark Byrant!
M.
I think this trade
would do wonders for the teams toughness. Hinrich is a bull dawg on defense, and both him and prince are tough minded players with high basketball IQ’s. Perfect combo.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
Why mention Rudy's name in a trade?
That is giving up too much talent. We need his hustle, movement without the ball, 3 pt shooting, assists/ passing.
I would accept a trade for Hinrich or Prince if we can keep Rudy.
Would you do Przybilla instead?
I don’t think the Pistons would take just him and Outlaw, but if they would? And what about Batum’s PT then?
—Dave
They should do either
But I would do neither. I don’t think a big change is needed at the SF spot. Next year we realistically aren’t a title contender. It’d be cool, but I think we won’t quite be there.
The year after is when we’ll be a favorite. This means Batum will be in his third year and Webster in his 5th (6th if you count this year.) One of them should have taken the true starting job and proved himself as a good player. By then I will gurantee that one of these two is better than Prince will be in 2 years.
Disagree
Blazers would be a title contender this year if Hinrich and Prince were on this team. Stop thinking about three years from now, for all I know James and Wade and other great players could be on the same team and win five titles in a row.
I think they may be anyway...
Yeah I’m a homer and all but I really think we could be contenders without this proposed trade. It is quite possible that the natural growth of this team will make them a good enough team to challenge for a title next year…or at least the year after.
I think the guys that have carried the burden of redeeming this teams reputation deserve the chance to reach the pinnacle with it. If the team flattens out in a couple years, which I don’t think they will, then make a move to open the window. I see no reason to throw our loyal, young talent through the window now when it will open by itself.
Had we not drawn the Rockets...
…we even had a shot this year. We matched up well against everyone else including the Lakers. I honestly don’t think we could have taken the Lakers in 7 this year, because they are on a mission, and have been great at making adjustments after losses, whereas we haven’t, but we know how to give them a lot of trouble. We also played well against Orlando, and were one shot away from a season sweep against them. We just have big trouble with Dallas, Houston, and the Sixers. Any other match-up, and who knows. A first round win, and we might have been able to go forward with the new found confidence to even beat the Rockets in the second round if we had to. We were victims of our own success, because a couple losses would have given us a better match-up just as one more win would have. We finished tied for second in the West. One win or two losses, and it could have been a whole different ball game. I expect it to be next year, and we don’t need to trade anyone for that. Our players will get better. The only thing we need to find out is which SF will play the best.
You guys are missing the point
the Blazers most likely will get better next year (without any trades), but so are other teams. Lakers were not much of a title contender until they landed Gasol for nothing. What if Houston get a scoring guard or SF to help or replace Mcgardy, what if Denver getting another player to better their team. Stop only looking at our team, many other teams are only one or two moves from having a dynasty for five to ten years to come. The Blazers are very close to having a title contender now, don’t waste two or three years for the young players to develop. These young guys might or might not turn out to be the players you hope to see.
What if ???
OK, if say if none of the available free agents signed with their current team, which players would you see KP signing where we need help ???
I would still pass on Prince with Batum here now, the sf question is answered between him and Martell........
But ,Hinrich with Tim Thomas thrown in a trade with Bulls would get my attention.
Imo, Rudy and Joel are not going anywhere. Chacho, Frye, Randolph , Ruffin and possibly Travis are the only players KP will part with. Hinrich is not a big enough improvement over Blake to give up any core player, imo.
I have wanted to get Tayshaun Prince for a while
He is a veteran who has won a title, and brings both veteran leadership and perimeter D, plus he is perfect to work with Batum as he in his prime is what we want Batum to become. Obviously we have an untouchable core:
Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Batum….I think for at least one more year Pryzbilla is a part of the untouchables……until Greg has stepped up and shown he can be both durable and out of foul trouble, we can’t leave him as our primary center.
Of our 2/3 or 3/4 players, I think any upgrade at the 3 means Outlaw leaves, and we have to keep either Webster or Fernandez as our 2/3 combo who can shoot from the outside. Of the two, I’d rather keep Fernandez, but Webster is going to be harder to trade coming off the foot injury. I would do the Hinrich/Prince deal for a combo of Blake, Outlaw, All of our picks, Rudy, Sergio, Channing, or replace Rudy with Webster, but not both of them.
Hinrich/Bayless: PG
Roy/Rudy/Webster: SG (one of the 2 backups remains)
Prince/Batum: SF
Aldridge/ Free Agent or draft pick: PF
Oden/Pryzbilla: C
I think this roster would be a winner, but remove both Rudy and Webster and we are too thin at shooting guard
To Answer Dave...
HINRICH
• I think Chicago does the Hinrich deal for Blake and #24. I think the proposal with Sergio and Cap room is a little far-fetched. And Blake wouldn’t be needed if we had Hinrich anyway. And we’d be keeping Freeland. So I’m assuming THIS TRADE) goes through…
PRINCE
• It would have to include either Webster or Outlaw, and Joel Przybilla. Both options make the trade work financially. And although Pryz would be tough to give up, I think there will be a time next season when Oden picks it up and we WILL all realize we don’t need a GREAT backup like Przy anymore, a guy like Steven Hill will do just fine. So it actually kinda makes sense to sell high on Przy and sign a guy like Hill this offseason…
WEBSTER OR OUTLAW?
• Webster has more trade value. Although I like Webster way more than I do Outlaw, Webster makes more sense for both teams. For Detroit, Webster would fit in much better than Outlaw.
• For the Blazers, if it was Outlaw in the trade, we would have 3 SF’s, and although Webster can slide to the 2, we have Rudy there backing up Roy already. But if Webster was in the trade, Outlaw could transition into the Backup PF slot where there currently is nobody. Either way it goes down the Blazers would then need to acquire the PF we all want. But if Webster goes, that PF acquisition does not become an extremely important this offseason.
• Would Detroit do this deal? Hmmm…Throw in Sergio? Why not, the numbers still work
So there you have it. That is the best way I see how we could get Hinrich and Prince.
• Blake, #24 pick, Webster, Przybilla for Hinrich, Prince, Cap relief
FINAL ROSTER
Hinrich/Bayless
Roy/Rudy
Prince/Batum
Aldridge/Outlaw
Oden/Hill
verrrrrrry niiiiiiiiiiiiice.
ohhh….
BUT I STILL PREFER THE HINRICH TRADE BE THE ONLY TRADE
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
Nevermind the "THIS TRADE" link, I thought it would jump to my comment at 10:13 AM
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
Mike Barrett told me Outlaw has little to no trade value everywhere except Memphis
And if the general consensus here is we would rather have Webster, and we know these guys better than almost everybody, don’t you think the people who get paid to make these decisions for other teams would end up having the same opinion? That is there job, you know, to value players correctly.
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
Mike Barrett isn't the GM of any other team
He can speculate just like us, just with a little more inside info.
Webster has more trade value?
He played 0 last year. Outlaw was what, 5th in voting for 6MotY? Not saying they wouldn’t go for Webster/Billa, but I don’t think Webster has the higher TV.
Yeah.
I don’t think Webster has more trade value, although I do think he’s the better player.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 12, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Mike Barrett told me Outlaw has little to no trade value everywhere except Memphis
And if the general consensus here is we would rather have Webster, and we know these guys better than almost everybody, don’t you think the people who get paid to make these decisions for other teams would end up having the same opinion? That is there job, you know, to value players correctly.
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
Call me naieve but...
… a co-worker and I mulled over the idea of making a trade with Washington that would net us Caron Butler and the #5 pick. Use the pick to acquire Stephen Curry and make a subsequent trade with NY to acquire David Lee.
In theory, we could use Webster, Outlaw, Rodriguez, the #24 and any/all 2nd Round Picks, plus cap space in July to get this done.
Portland would rely on Blake and Bayless at the point, Batum and Butler at the 3 and Aldrige and Lee at the 4.
Thoughts?
Ehh...
-Curry is not a number 5 pick. If we got that high I’d hope it was to try and target Rubio.
-Lee won’t want to be a backup in Portland
-Butler is solid, but likely too expensive.
Also, no way Webster, Outlaw, Sergio, and picks get us Butler/Lee/5 pick.
I don’t think Rubio is going to drop past Sacramento.
I think the #5 can be had via Washington who is also looking to cut salary – Butler is their only reasonable contract and doesn’t hurt the Blazers. The only question is what would it take to get Butler from Washington – is the combination of Webster, Outlaw, #24, and a 2nd Round Pick enough? Portland could throw in Blake or pick up the option on Frye and include him – Washington would then have the ability to withdraw the offers on Frye and potentially Outlaw. Worst case scenario, they let Frye and Outlaw walk at the end of next year. Portland could even thrown in next year’s 1st Round Pick if Washington desired.
With regards to selecting Curry with the #5 – NY is drooling all over themselves to get Lebron next year – if Lebron thinks Curry is the best player in the draft why wouldn’t NY want him. Consider NY’s position – they have the ability to get 2 top 7 lottery picks and a cheap point guard while still dumping salary if they traded for Curry & Rodriguez – Remember Portland can absorb about $5M of whatever contract Lee is signed to (more if they renounce Kaponen and Freeland), so if Lee is signed to a $9M/y contract, the #5 pick + Sergio should be enough to offset salary differences — yes it will likely irritate NY fans next year, but NY will have a strong young nucleus to pair with Lebron if they are able to sign him. This also fits considering, for some unknown reason, Lee is not D’Antoni’s favorite player. And again Portland could throw in a future 1st round pick if NY so desired.
It would also put Washington further under the cap at the end of 09/2010 when Bosh, Lebron and other big names are free agents. While this trade looks lopsided, It puts both NY and WAS in better financial situations at the end of next season and gives them young tallent that they can incorporate into their systems.
RE: Rubio
I don’t think Rubio is going to drop past Sacramento for a few reasons – first I think the Maloof’s are trying to tank the team in hopes that they can move the team to Las Vegas. Thus, if they draft Rubio, and Rubio can’t buy/sue his way out of Spain – they can afford to keep him in Spain for another season. Further, with the cash problems in California, Sacramento isn’t going to shell out $$$ for a new arena – couple that with low fan turnout and you have your next Seattle situation. The only question is if David Stern will allow an NBA franchise in Las Vegas. Say the NBA doesn’t – then the Maloof’s can find a private financier for their new arena or sell the team with an asset like Rubio stored away. Furthermore, lets say Rubio does prevail and does end up stateside, and Sacramento does sign him – they are immediately a better team with him on the floor because they NEED a point guard.
The worst case scenario for Sacramento is they end up with James Hardin, Jordan Hill, or Thabeet – which isn’t a bad thing for them, but in any scenario Rubio is already taken. Rubio will not slip past Sacramento.
Who's the better PLAYMAKER?
Meaning, who is best at making passes that lead to baskets
Hinrich
Kidd
Miller
Sessions
or Conley?
I have a feeling a playmaker type at PG is the type KP is targeting…
I would say Kidd, but I haven’t seen the rest play more than a handful of games.
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
kidd then sessions
its just that sessions doesnt have any other offensive game
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Career assist %, last regular season assist %
Hinrich 30, 23
Kidd 40, 35
Miller 35, 30
Session 36, 35
Conley 24, 24
Based on that, I think you have to say Kidd
considering how much of the offense is just Dirk isos, that’s basically every other time they didn’t post up Dirk on a possession, Kidd got the assist.
Based on that I rather would have Sessions. But it's debatable.
I wouldn’t like Kidd at all for the Blazers, especially if they keep Blake.
Not saying I want him
but to have an assist % of 35 when a huge staple of their offense if the Dirk iso is downright impressive. My order of preference would probably be:
Conley
Hinrich
Sessions
Miller
Kidd
mainly due to the age factors bumping Miller and Kidd so far down.
Prince yes, Hinrich no
I’d rather have Blake then Hinrich. That said, if I had to pick a cheap point guard, I’d go with Jose Calderon of the Raptors.
I can't think of a situation
Where I would be willing to give up Joel for Prince and Hinrich. That smells of old french cheese. I say put the sherpas off for another year. Do what ever you have to to get Sergio out of Portland and give all of the PG2 minutes to Bayless.
by BlazerFanFromDenver on Jun 12, 2009 4:19 PM PDT reply actions
Good news on the Hinrich front. New GM Kahn doesn't want Hinrich for the Wolves
When asked about rumored trades, he mentioned Kirk Hinrich whom he described as a nice player who makes too much money. He said Hinrich is not what the team is looking for offensively
If the Blazers want him, sounds like there won’t be many other suitors left. The Wolves were reported to maybe make a very competitive offer around the expiring deal of Mike Miller and/or the #6 pick.
niiiiiice...
think they’ll take Blake and the #24? They’d be saving between $8-9Mil next year…
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
straight up..
i dont know if i would take that.. in 5 years petteri might be as good as rose..
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 12, 2009 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions
you guys got it all wrong...
although we have issues at the point position, our “point” of emphasis really should be about a viable backup at the 4. and the two names that keep popping in my head are David Lee and Brandon Bass. Trust me, having channing frye is a liability. LA is about to fly up to All-Star status and he needs someone to take the pressure off. Lee and Bass are the guys that can do it b/c of their toughness, grit, ability to gaurd the 3 and 4 position, rebounding prowess, and hustle. A move for them really entails that you would have to give up certain key players in order to get them, which is fine b/c you would be freeing up minutes for other players to move up to the next level. We all know the names that are expendable: Sergio, Outlaw, Frye. There really is no way that Blake and Rudy will leave; both are way too competitive, clutch in the 4th, great around the perimeter, able to play the point. Plus Rudy has that Spanish Swag that is a PR manager’s dream. I really don’t see Martell leaving b/c of that contract extension, and besides, he has shown signs of that mamba-like killer instinct when he’s feeling it. And believe me, after sitting out for an entire year, he will be feeling it. Although Martell has not shown that he can create shots on his own yet, he provides a wider skill set than Outlaw does. Speaking of which, remember last year when Portland had a chance to trade Outlaw and get their hands on Devin Harris? You know him right, “most amazing half court shot ever” devin Harris? But then we were way too obsessed with OUtlaw and his sudden ability to come up clutch that got him dubbed “Mr.4th quarter”. Well that guy is gone now. He was LOST in the playoffs. Getting back to my original point. Trade for a viable 4, and we free up the minutes to find out what Martell, Batum, and Bayless are all about. I think bayless shot is serviceable and so is his game-management skills, but we need to find time on the floor to bring that out of him. I really like Hinrich but i feel like we need to sharpen the other tools we have in the box.
Tayshaun Prince is Nic Batum that's a little older and five times the price...
He does have excellent experience in curling into the fetal position and playing dead in four games in the playoffs, however. That is definitely worth something to somebody.
This team is stocked, superstocked, and beyond superstocked at the 3.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Minus one for this whole thread, which is a diversion from the actually ensuing draft to Trade Machine Silly Season...
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Yeah, he was really a detriment to Detoit winning a championship...
and going to the ECF four straight years after that. They would have been so much better off without his great defense, timely shot-making, etc. Can’t see why we’d want a guy with that much playoff experience on what was effectively the youngest team in the league this year. Makes no sense whatsoever.
Our time table is now
not two or three years from now. Look at the two teams playing in the final and picture the Blazers with Prince and Hinrich on the team this year, we could be talking about scheduling parade in PDX.
Wow.
I love those deals (with Outlaw, not Webster).
Your point guard situation would be set for the next three years with Hinrich, Bayless, and spot minutes for Roy.
Your off guards would be Roy and any combination of Webster, Hinrich, or Bayless.
SF’s would be Prince, Batum, and Webster
PF would be Aldridge. Prince and Pryzbilla could play spot minutes at the 4, and you’d also have Freeland, an MLE, and/or a 2nd rounder as option.
Oden/Pryz at the 5.
That team is scary good right now. And the beauty of it is that when your three “old” guys (Pryz, Prince, Hinrich) start to fade, other players will be ready step up.
Wow. Highly unlikely, but wow.
MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)
by The Cactus Leaguer on Jun 12, 2009 10:29 PM PDT reply actions
Forgot to mention
Love Rudy, but I doubt he stays here when his rookie contract is up. He’s redundant. Plus, backup shooting guard is probably the easiest spot in the NBA to fill with an adequate player due to the plethora of 6-4 to 6-6 guys that can shoot.
MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)
by The Cactus Leaguer on Jun 12, 2009 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I've argued against Hinrich
but only because I considered him an inadequate upgrade for the cost (players plus salary). I’ll admit I could be wrong, especially if Hinrich’s defense is all that it’s cracked up to be. At least Portland has a need to upgrade the point guard position, and asking Bayless to fill that need is putting too much on too young a player. Plus, Blake is probably as good as he will ever get.
However, Portland ranked 7th in the league in net PER this season at small forward, with a very young Batum and no Webster. Personally, I think Webster + Batum > Prince. More muscle is more important than a lateral move. Prince doesn’t bring muscle.
However, Portland ranked 7th in the league in net PER this season at small forward, with a very young Batum and no Webster.
This is mainly because in Roy’s 13 minutes per game at SF, his stats were ridiculous.
proud hinrichsheeple
by Cablinasian on Jun 12, 2009 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not wholly convinced...
One of the things that has been so fantastic to watch with the Blazers has been their youth, their enthusiasm, and the maturing process. All the posts want championships now, and would be willing to trade away pivotal pieces of the team. I’m extremely partial to Rudy Fernandez. Yeah, I understand that if we were to trade him, Blake, and Webster (or Outlaw) for Tayshaun Prince, we might elevate the team to championship contention. However, long-term, I don’t see this being beneficial. We wouldn’t have a backup 2 guard, because we would’ve traded away every other guard on the roster besides Bayless to get Hinrich over (If that were to happen). Brandon would be so run down by then, that we couldn’t ride him to a championship. And, as you all should know by now, he’s the most pivotal part of this team.
Now, I am all for getting Hinrich. If were able to trade Sergio, and our of our SF’s, along with maybe a pick or two to get him, then I think we could do extremely well. He has experience playign the 2 Guard, and would give Nate the options of having 3 people who can play there. Rudy can play the 2 or the 3, and Outlaw/Webster (Whomever is kept in the trade for Hinrich) can play the 4 on a small lineup. I would envision it looking something like this:
Point Guard: Hinrich/Blake/Bayless (With Bayless getting a lot of time on 2nd unit, with Hinrich shifting to 2)
Shooting Guard: Roy/Fernandez/Hinrich
Small Forward: Batum/Outlaw-Webster/Fernandez
Power Forward: Aldridge/________/Outlaw-Webster (The blank would be filled through either the draft, or free agency)
Center: Oden/Pryzbilla/Aldridge
Just this rotation alone wouldn’t gut our team, and should allow for Brandon to not get annihilated by playing the 48 minutes a game you expect him to. One of the best mindsets I can think of, in regards to playing time, came from Chauncey Billups when he came over to Denver. He said that he couldn’t be played the entire game, no more than I believe 36 minutes a game, on average, if he was going to be fresh for the playoffs. If we trade away our current guard group for only 1 new guard, then we’re going to have issues with him being fresh enough for the playoffs. Just my thoughts.
Wait wait wait ... Prince? why Kirk at all?
I like the Kirk idea, but really, T. Prince is THE missing piece, not Kirk. He would be HUGE on this team. why bother juggling the numbers at all to get Hinrich? Target Tayshaun and if Hinrich is there, then yeah.
Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
http://www.myspace.com/y5k
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