FanPost

Blazer Colors (Update - poll added) Final Edition

Final entry of the Blazer 2008-2009 Color Coded Season

The last edition was at game 53 of the season.  

Due to size, some of the tables below are cut in half making two tables. I’ve squeezed them together as much as possible so they can still be viewed as one table.


Color Code Explanation:
I’ve settled on two tones, red tones for wins and blue tones for losses. As the colors get more intense (brighter/darker) the margin of victory/loss gets larger. This way instead of seeing one game at a time by looking at the score, you can easily see 7 to 15 to 25 games at one glance, and hopefully not need to refer to a legend. Notwithstanding a legend is provided at the bottom of the first table.

Red tones = wins
Light Purple = wins by less than 10
Bright Purple = wins by 10 or more
Dark Red = wins by 20 or more

Blue tones = losses
Light Blue = losses by less than 10
Bright Blue = losses by 10 or more
Dark Blue = losses by 20 or more

Table 1 - The Season Thru Game 82 - Record 54-28
3588549416_6ef58615f5_medium 
3588549756_0b6175005e_medium 
The two tables above are the entire season (two tables to provide better resolution) with 40 games in the first and 42 in the second (i.e. game 41 is on the second table but belongs to the first half of the season. We were 25 & 16 (.610) thru the 1st 41 games and 29 & 12 (.707) thru the last 41. Four more victories in the 2nd half of the season, but if you scroll back and forth between the two tables we had far more decisive victories in the last half evidenced also by the much brighter red tones.
Extrapolating the last half of the season to a full season, 58 wins & 24 losses.

You’ll also notice we had no losses greater than 20 points in the second half.
Sum total: win/loss ratio improved only a little in the last half but the wins were more significant, while the wins we tallied in the first half were more of the slim margin variety. Hence, the improvement was far greater than what the 4 win difference suggests.
Point diff of 1st half 2.97, 2nd half 7.71

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Table 2 is not only a Legend describing the color that goes with each category, but also a table that records how many wins or losses is in each category. To the right last years season is included for comparison. The percent those games represent of the season (% of season) will help to compare this year to last year.

Table 2 – Legend
3565671837_0eb9b5db91_medium
A delta is included at the right of the table above, this delta percentage is of the season. Hence looking at the top row (games won by 20 or more), we won 11% more (of the season) than last year. Which more than tripled from last year to this year, 13 wins vs 4 wins.

One of the interesting notes of this table is that the two inner categories remained almost the same (loss or wins less than 10). Meaning that we pulled most of our wins from the loss category which was10 or greater. Actually 11 games from the " loss by 10 or more category", 2 games form the "loss less than 10", and 3 from the "win by less than 10".

Summation: 16 games were pulled from here and all landed in the "win by 10 or more category", and of those 16 games 9  landed in the "win by 20 or more" slot.

SEE note above at bottom of table 2.


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Table 3 – The Season Sorted  by opponents win % with lesser teams at the top.
Here we expect to see more red at the top and more blue at the bottom.
3587740231_c2df05d0cf_medium 
3588549890_a1abc36fd7_medium 
The win% of the Western Conference 8th seeded Utah was .585, this looks like a good position to analyze the season. We played 32 games against teams with a .585% or higher. We were 14 wins 18 losses against those teams, 40 & 10 against teams with less than a .585%.

Here's the breakdown against good teams.
3588549560_5281690df6_medium 
We only lost 5 games this year if our opponent had a less than .500 record, but anything above that and we faltered.

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Playoff Possibilities
The following tables are all sorted by the opponents win% with the lesser teams at the top.
These tables separate the games we played in the West from the games we’ve played in the East. I’ve headed this section "Playoff possibilities"  because how we've done against the West is likely indicative of how well we do in the playoffs, and pretty much fits the bill for how we did this year.

Western Conference Table.....................................................................  Mixed feelings

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3587740843_43e253964a_medium 
32 wins 20 losses.......win% .615

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Eastern Conference Table.................................................Purple Haze
3566487014_5fab2e7d58_medium
22 wins 8 losses.......win% .733

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Western Conference Road Games
Record = 10 wins & 16 losses.....................................................Down for repair

3587740755_70c38bed42_medium 
On the road in the West,  2 wins & 15 losses against .300 teams or higher - ouch!

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Western Conference Home Games
Record = 22 wins & 4 losses............................................
Hot Chili Peppers
3588549968_c11534692d_medium 
We were11 & 3 at home against the West at one point, but ended 22 & 4
So 11 & 1 for the last 12 West home games. - I’ll take some more of this.
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Eastern Conference Road Games
Record = 10 wins & 5 losses.....................................We'll play you guys anywhere

3566487204_e6d89ac941_medium
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Eastern Conference Home Games
Record = 12 wins & 3 losses.............................................................Purple Haze remix

3565672201_3c020fc5eb_medium

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A quick look at point differentials.

5.34…..Season avg

2.91…..1st half of season

7.71…..2nd half of season

9.81…..Last 21 games

25.43…Last 10 games

I doubt that very many teams have ever made this marked of a improvement over one season.
My take on the ending of the season is that we pushed to hard for a good seed. I think we might have faired better without the physical punishment we endured to achieve a 25+ point diff for 10 games. Certainly there were other factors than just this, but this is at least noteworthy.

It would be interesting to know how many times a team has had a 25+ point diff over a 10 game span, how they played after that span, and where they ended up for the season. (hint to all the geekified statisticians)
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Shout out to BEdge community.
I’ve always been, and only been, a Blazer homer. Which usually means I know the Blazer team and a small handful of stars around the NBA. You guys have turned me into a little bit of an analyst this year. I pull stats, I actually know some complete player rotations of the other teams, I look at the Euro league, etc, etc. All because of this great BEdge community.

Before long I’ll be putting up 2 or 3 Trade Posts week. Ok, I stretched the truth a little on that one, well all right, I flat out lied. I will never put up a Trade Post, but at least I have a few ideas on the subject.

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My Blazer dream team starting 5 – Roy, Oden, LMA, Batum/Martel, Rubio
Current untouchables - Roy, Oden, LMA
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Random Musings

There were 17 games  we lost by less than 10 points, if we turn half of those into wins (or 8 games) and all other things being equal, this would yield a 62 & 20 season. 8 of those 17 games were actually lost by 5 points or less, so this doesn’t seem to far fetched.
The Achilles heel for the season: West road games.


Oden
There were a couple games in the Huston series where I felt Oden was going all out being a complete beast in the process, even more than his normal beastyness. I got the distinct impression he said to himself "forget the knee, we need this." For me, I saw a taste of the real Oden, and it was good. Anyone else see some moments of a higher level?

Concerns: I believe(d) that Greg has the body control to overcome his foul issues. But how long does it take to learn not to bring your hands down concussing whoever might be under those enormous paws? I still have faith on this one.

Bayless
We clearly haven’t seen enough of him to evaluate. If genius really is 99% perspiration and 1% inspiration I’ll wait to pass judgment, ‘cause JB Einstein is in the building.
Concerns: ball distribution is in question.

Rubio
This kid is special. The only young player I’d be willing to take a chance on, and it has nothing to do with the fact that this is my 1st man crush.

Rubio's agent, Dan Fegan, is apparently trying to position Rubio to be drafted by a team in a more appealing market such as Los Angeles, New York or even Portland.

My gut feel is that whoever has the chance but passes on this phenomenon, will cry a bucket of tears for about 15 years.

To make a broad generalization of the season, our worst games were when we could not break down the defense. When our only option to break an ankle was Roy, it was a long night. Rubio changes this, and all those times our big guy was open this year with no result, will end in Blazermania dunks next year.

Come June 26th, if there are no significant upgrades available, I vote for staying with what we have (might be willing to compromise a little here). I hope you all have enjoyed the Color Coded Editions this year. 

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