What are the odds, for each current Blazer, that they will be wearing scarlet and black come the start of the 2009-10 campaign?  In order of likelihood, here is my best guess.

Brandon Roy:  >99.9%

I won't write 100% or 0% because there are no absolutes in sports--but I can't see any scenario, other than Cleveland offering LeBron and a pick, that Roy will be gone.  Expect Roy to get a max extension this summer, to avoid having him be a FA after next season--and expect him to be in town for a long time.

Greg Oden: 98%

Barring some rather nasty I-want-out scenario, which I don't see happning, I expect Greg to be back.  Having Greg on the roster is like being on <em>Deal or no Deal</em>, the million dollar case is still in play, and the banker's giving you  nothing but lowball offers.  If you get to play a dozen games, it's frequently beneficial to take a good offer from the bank--but there's only one shot.  Oden stays.  No deal.  Now name your next case.

Joel Przybilla: 96%

If and when Oden turns into the stud we all want, and Joel starts rotting on the bench--it might be worth moving him.  But until that day comes--Joel loves Portland and Portland loves Joel.  He's not untouchable--but I wouldn't move Joel at this time  except for a big man of similar quality, and I don't see any of those available.

LaMarcus Aldridge: 95%

Aldridge is another guy--like Roy--due for a contract extension--the Blazers have three guys on the team who were drafted in 06, and are entering the final year of their rookie deals (Sergio is the third; we'll deal with him later).  There is no doubt--Roy gets a max deal; he's a top ten player in this league.  But what of Aldridge?  Five years ago, the trio of Z-Bo, AK47, and Pau Gasol all received max deals--and all three contracts are now regarded as big mistakes, as none is an all-NBA caliber player.  Z-bo is toxic waste; AK47 is a decent bench contributor but one whose development has lagged.  Only Gasol merits All-Star consideration--and even then, he's overpaid.  LMA, at best, is probably in Gasol territory; expect there to be some negotiation back and forth concerning HIS contract.  Sometimes, those things turn bad.  (Also, LMA isn't untouchable--I could see him being moved for the right offer).  I fully expect Aldridge to be back (and happy), but there are more things that could go wrong than with Roy.

Rudy Fernandez: 95%

Rudy seems happy with his role on the team, and there are no contract issues--unlike countryman Juan Carlos Navarro, who decided the NBA/US wasn't for him--there's little indication Rudy might want to return to Spain.  OTOH, he's a starter quality player who is coming off the bench--if New Jersey were to call and offer Devin Harris for the Spanish Connection, I'd have to consider it.  But expect Rudy to be back.

Martell Webster:  95%

A Webster trade would be unlikely given that he was hurt all season--he might not even be able to pass a trade physical at this point.  OTOH, stranger things have happened.  If any of our SFs get traded, I expect it to be Outlaw or...

Nicolas Batum: 90%

Nic had a horrible playoff series against Houston--but giving the monsters he was lined up against, the fact that he's a 19 year old rookie, and the fact that he makes women all over town swoon (at least one of them, anyway)--I expect him to be back.  OTOH, he isn't untouchable, and can be moved for the right offer.  It would be risky, given questions of Webster's health, but he's a desired asset.  As is the remaining rookie, one...

Jerryd Bayless:  85%

Out of all four rookies, Bayless got to spend the least amount of time on the floor, and other than a brief run when Steve Blake was hurt, did little to justify any PT other than during garbage time.  He's another guy with the "Potential" label, though, and was reportedly inquired about quite a bit during the rush to the trading deadline.  His position--PG/tweener--and the unsettled nature of the post make him the rookie most likely to be moved; however out of the three Blazer PGs, I think he's the most likely to return.

Steve Blake: 70%

Blake has had doubters every where he has gone, and has generally silenced them.  But is he the starting PG for a champion?  Given that prior NBA champions have started guys like Derek Fisher, Ron Harper, BJ Armstrong, Steve Kerr, and Avery Johnson at the point--and that guys like Chris Paul, Steve Nash, John Stockton, Jason Kidd, Kevin Johnson, and Deron Williams are all ringless (if it weren't for his stint with Miami, you could add Gary Payton to the list)--I'd say the answer is "maybe".  If Oden turns into the beast we expect, and either Martell or Batum were to add the ability to beat folks off the dribble--Blake could be the PG that gets us there.  OTOH, on a team whose only scoring threats are Roy and LMA, an upgrade at the other positions is probably warranted--and Blake, who will be a FA next season (assuming his option for next year is picked up, which it will be), could be the guy who is upgraded.  That might mean a trade (many have suggested a Blake+spare parts for Kirk Hinrich trade), or a demotion to the bench should someone else assume the starting QB role.  Most likely, Blake will be back next year--he meshes well with Brandon--but out of the five starters, he's the most likely IMO to not return.

Travis Outlaw: 50%

A highly controversial player, to say the least--teams love his ability to get a shot over almost anybody--and loathe his ability to disappear, and to look lost on defense.  This is an option year for Travis, and the Blazers will certainly pick up the option--but he's among the Most Likely To Be Traded among the team.  If he does stay, I expect him to get fewer minutes next year--were that to occur it would probably help him, as the team could focus on what he does well (score) and not be dependent on him to do the things he does poorly (everything else).

Sergio Rodriguez: 30%

Despite everything, Sergio still isn't happy.  His game did improve, and having Rudy around certainly helped--but Sergio would be better suited to another system--such as Mike d'Antoni in New York.  Given that he's entering the final year of his rookie deal, and I don't expect the Blazers to extend him--the best time for Portland to move him would be this summer.  He could be back, but I think Portland will look to add a PG, and if they do, Sergio is most likely the odd man out.

Channing Frye:  10%

Martell Webster, whose rookie deal expired this season, was extended last fall.

Frye, drafted three picks afterward in the same draft, was not.  Since that bit of motivation, he's done nothing to justify coming back, other than injecting himself into the local cultural fabric and Pearl District scene.  Juan Dixon loved the Pearl, too--that didn't keep him from being sent packing.

Unlike the three guys below, though, Frye can play NBA ball--there are a few teams that have use for a jumpshooting PF who doesn't rebound or play D very often.  He'll be employed next year at one of them, possibly in a sign-and-trade. 

But chances are, he won't be wearing a Portland jersey come November.  I

Raef LaFrentz, Michael Ruffin, Shavlik Randolph.  <0.1%

Raef's career is likely done; Ruffin was acquired only for his contract (and is otherwise not a KP/Nate player), and Randolph had the distinction of spending the most games on the inactive list of players who weren't hurt at the time.  None will be back in a Blazer uniform next season.  Raef won't be back in the league; and the other two, if they are in the NBA, probably won't be playing for a guaranteed contract.

Oh, and one more

Nate McMillan, 95%

McMillan has one year remaining on his deal, which was for five years, signed in 2005. Nate has his critics around town--there seems to be a "fire Nate" chorus that periodically pipes up.  But he's highly regarded among those who know basketball.  The thing the Blazers ought to be considering is not whether or not to keep Nate--they instead should be working on his contract extension.

Nate has shown that he will walk if lowballed.  Just ask Seattle.  :)

It is entirely possible that McMillan intends to move on after next year--when asked about his contract status, he recently said something like "I'm going to honor my deal with the team"--which COULD be read that he wants to go elsewhere afterwards.  If Nate does want to go elsewhere--and help build up another young team, for instance--I wish him good luck.  But if McMillan wants to stay in Portland, the time to make that happen is now. 

At any rate, barring a spectacular breakdown of a contract negotiation, I fully expect McMillan to be prowling the sidelines for the Blazers next season.