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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Who is the most Over-Rated Blazer?

Who do you think is the most Over-Rated Blazer?

For the most part, this Portland Trail Blazers roster was the same from start to finish so we as fans had a chance to see the current core over the course of the entire season.  Some players exceeded some expectations, while others seemed to underachieve with aspects of their game (or were some expectations off?), all in all each of us fans learned a lot about this team and the players that comprise it.

Now that the off-season is here the fanbase is already knee deep in talk about "what moves should be made to make this a true championship caliber team" or "who needs to go because they disappointed in the playoffs" or "who should have a guaranteed larger portion of the playing time pie carved out because of what they did this past season"...  Which player is going to be kept that you think shouldn't be deemed "untouchable".

Well with lots of different people come lots of different answers to looming questions like these.  So I wanted to offer two polls on which player you believe to be the most over-rated Blazer and who you believe to be the most under-rated Blazer.  And by "rated" I mean appreciated, liked, respected, and/or valued by the fans, not the team, Nate or KP.

I am going to leave Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge off of the list and focus on the role-players who surround those budding stars.

After you vote please make a case or comment about who you chose and why.  If you are the firt person to vote for a certain player, make a start heading below and others thread after them.

Poll
Now that the season is over, who do you think is the current most over-rated, over-liked, over-valued or over-respected player on the Blazers roster?
Joel Pryzbilla
2 votes
Greg Oden
22 votes
Travis Outlaw
60 votes
Channing Frye
0 votes
Martell Webster
19 votes
Nicolas Batum
15 votes
Rudy Fernandez
38 votes
Steve Blake
26 votes
Sergio Rodriguez
15 votes
Jerryd Bayless
31 votes

228 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 60 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Travis

Plays out of control, when he is on he looks good. When he is off he gets schooled. 6 years in the league we should know on a consistant basis what to expect. I have no idea what Travis will do from night to night.

I thought there was going to be 2 polls?

I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.

""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."

His stare became blank. It was apparent he was back in that place, on the Rose Garden's logo, picking up Aaron Brooks as the crowd nervously roared.

by Dragonage on May 5, 2009 10:02 AM PDT reply actions  

Voted Blake, specifically off the observations from the OregonLive piece. The word has been out for some time on Outlaw’s strengths and weaknesses, but you’d be surprised how many NBA fans outside the Pacific NW view Blake as this pseudo-Chauncey-esque game manager just waiting for a championship squad to pick him up so he can floor-general their way to a dynasty running the second unit or whatever, it’s a little silly.

"I take the little gummy bear Flintstones vitamins…I try not to eat the lady. I try not to eat the man. Just give me the car. I try to find the car. Yea, worst case scenario, I eat the lady." - Ron Artest, 2009

by rivetz on May 5, 2009 10:24 AM PDT reply actions  

I voted for Sergio in both under and over -rated polls

I am trying to join the “keep Portland wierd” crowd

by Escrote on May 5, 2009 10:26 AM PDT reply actions  

you misspelled "weird"

The word “weird” is weird, because it breaks the old school rule about “i before e except after c.”

I know you were just following the rule but in the case of the word “weird” the rule meets the exception.

Weird, huh?

If you think education is expensive, try ignorance.

Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked.

by Love on May 6, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

I voted Rudy

Even though I love what he brings to the team and I have a tendency to over-rate him myself. I certainly don’t think Travis is over-rated by the fans. I’m surprised he’s leading the poll albeit with a small sampling. I’m tempted to vote for Travis for under-rated, although again I’m personally guilty of same.

by jiminut on May 5, 2009 10:28 AM PDT reply actions  

Webster

I like him as a person and his potential and I know it’s not popular, but I have to see what he showed in one pre-season game (very good in combination with Rudy) consistently to anoint him part of any solution at small forward. Right now quite a lot of fans talk as if we’ll get some combination of Nic’s defense and Kevin Durants offense back once he is healthy. If he is healthy.

I hope this will come true. But you think Oden is moody? You have seen nothing yet. And foot injuries can be nagging (as we have started to see this season). He has never scored more than 30 points (and yes, I have seen the game of his one huge quarter over and over again). His shooting motion is super pretty, but his ball screen action is not. Neither is scoring in isolation and driving to the basket since he has (had) at least as many problems dribbling as Travis with both hands. He is not the most laterally quick either on defense. In several aspects of the game Travis was the better player so far.

There are worse players on the team, but after this season we have a pretty good idea of what they can do and thus they are pretty properly rated.

by Norsktroll on May 5, 2009 10:45 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

I voted Outlaw

Because the guy is completely unpredictable, takes wild shots that he shouldn’t be taking, and everyone seems to love him.

Everyone always brings up the games where he made the winning shot. I ask everyone who says that to me this question: How many games did he lose for us by missing shots and taking shots he shouldn’t be taking? How many of us have stood up with our hands up in the air, for Travis’ WIDE OPEN three point attempt in the corner…only to have it go long or short?

After a few games this season, I just started cringing whenever he got the ball. I basically have a heart attack every time he puts the ball on the floor.

Every time Outlaw fades away in a shot, a kitten dies. Save the Kittens, don't fade!

by Przy4Prez on May 5, 2009 10:45 AM PDT reply actions  

I voted Nic Batum

I will likely be the only one, but…

Seriously though, Batum’s emergance this season was merely circumstantial. His seasonal impact was OK, yet lots of fans think his 18 minutes per game and decent perimeter defense puts him up with the Shane Battier’s of the league. The reason I say circumstantial is because of the Martell Webster injury… That injury FORCED Nate to play the rookie Batum those minutes. MOST NBA players who get a great deal of consistent minutes, with not many options for the coach if they screw up, are going to have a decent to good showing.

If that injury to Webster would have taken Blake out ALL SEASON instead of Webster… people would be in LOVE with Jerryd Bayless and/or Sergio Rodriguez because coach Nate wouldn’t have been able to mind-screw them all season and wouldve been forced to play them lots of consistent minutes. That is how improvements happen. Same thing, what if that was Roy who was injured? Rudy would’ve been forced into so many more minutes that his numbers and rookie opportunity wouldve been tremendous like Nic’s.

I like Nic and think he is going to be an excellent role-player, but there are too many people out there who think Nic is gonna be Shane Battier’s Plus 1,000,0000. He is good and will be good, but guys who got less opportuntiy this season (Rudy and Jerryd) I think are going to be more to this franchise in the long run.

by Portland Dynasty on May 5, 2009 10:50 AM PDT reply actions  

Agree, Nic will be good

but he’s far more Stacey Augmon than the Scottie Pippen that people seem to be sure that he’ll turn into. I mean, he was flat out terrible on offense this year, and contrary to popular BE opinion, wasn’t even the best rookie wing defender (Courtney Lee). I love having him, and he could potentially be great, but there are posters here who think he’s better than Durant. That’s just ridiculous.

by Royster on May 5, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

"flat out terrible" on offense

uh, no.

Comparing Nic’s season to Martell’s age 20 season (Martell’s 2nd NBA year), Nic was better in TS%, FG%, 3PT%, FT%, AST%, O-Reb%, TO%, STL% and BLK%.

Nic had a very strong offensive rookie season, despite being incredibly raw. I forsee Nic being a very good offensive player down the road, in addition to an excellent defender.

by jksnake99 on May 5, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

I admit, a little too much hyperbole there

but saying he’ll be a very good offensive player based on comparisons to Martell’s 2nd year (by far his worst) is hardly a great argument. Anyone looks good next to a sub-10 PER season. it’s like saying Sergio will be Steve Nash based on the comparison of his rookie year numbers to Bayless’s.

by Royster on May 5, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

I admittedly chose a low bar there

but Nic Batum’s coming up with a near-13 PER rookie season at age 20 bodes quite well for his chances of being a very good offensive player.

by jksnake99 on May 5, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't mean to come off as saying Nic is awful

and I think the best way to describe his offense this year is “misused”, but I just think he’s overrated compared to the actual results last year. He’s a great prospect, mainly due to his age, but I don’t see him as this transformative player, set to lock down Lebron for the next decade while averaging 15, 4 and 4, which seems to be a fairly prevalent view around here.

by Royster on May 5, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Blazers were 5 points per 100 possessions better on offense with Nic

According to 82games.com.

The Blazers were actually about the same on D with or without Nic. He’s not a defensive stopper yet – but he has the potential to be one.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on May 5, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Too much coupling in the +/- data for Nic

Nic on the court means Brandon and LaMarcus are also on the court, almost without fail. Based on his top 10 lineups at 82games.com, Nic played a total of 91 minutes all year without BOTH Roy and LA on the floor as well. and a total of 18 without either on the floor with him (of course there will be marginally more there since it only tracks the top 10 lineups).

In the 30 mpg or so when Nic is off the court, one or both of those guys is usually on the bench, so it’s hardly surprising that lineups that consist of Brandon+Lamarcus were significantly better than lineups that 50% of the time had both of them, 25% of the time had one of them, and 25% of the time had either of them (just estimating here).

+/- works best when players play with a variety of players, but Nic’s lack of lineup variety makes it a lot less worthwhile than it is for the vast majority of players, so it says less about him individually than it does about the lineup in general.

by Royster on May 5, 2009 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nic on the court means Brandon and LaMarcus are also on the court, almost without fail.

Well put. I ignore Nic’s +/- numbers for this reason.

a total of 18 without either on the floor with him

Most likely, they were all 4th quarter blowout minutes.

by Timmay! on May 5, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

this is the multicollinearity problem of using plus/minus

especially with very small sample sizes. +/- is theoretically the best metric to use, but only if you isolate individual contributions by running multiple regressions to isolate only individual contributions.

Unfortunately, I’m not aware of any free source of that kind of parsed data. I’m guessing the teams of statisticians employed by Houston and Dallas spend a lot of their time on this type of approach.

by howlingfantods on May 5, 2009 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly

I have no problem with +/- data in general, but Nic is a somewhat special case. It’s not like he’s playing in a variety of lineups, almost always alongside those two guys.

I believe this colinearity is what adjusted +/- at basketballvalue.com tries to eliminate, but the sample size for Nic playing without those two guys is so small that I think it’s just too noisy to be accurate. I really know of no other guys in the NBA with such a strange lineup pattern (as in only playing with a team’s best players).

by Royster on May 5, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Also

I’m not saying Nic is better than Durant, but he had a more positive impact on his team (albeit in a VERY different role on a VERY different team) this year.

The Thunder were 8 points per 100 possessions worse on defense with Durant on the floor. And they weren’t any better on offense, either.

As Mortimer would put it – I’m not sayin’. I’m just sayin’.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on May 5, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm in favor of the trade

just so we can have Oden vs. Durant at every practice. I mean Oden vs. Durant that’s fresh material to work with.

"Death is not final," Gita says. "If any man thinks that he slays, and if another thinks that he is slain, neither knows the truth. The Eternal in man cannot kill: the Eternal in man cannot die. The soul in man is neither born nor does it die. Weapons cannot cut it; fire cannot burn it; water cannot drown it.

The Bhagavad Gita

by Idog1976 on May 5, 2009 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed....

IMO, Nicolas Batum is more likely to be a Stacey Augman.,Boris Diaw or a wiry-thin version of hustle player Jerome Kersey. That is the level of all-around production that I would be anticipating out of him. But… IT would be super-sick if Batum turned into more of a Scottie Pippen-level of production/impact. Yeah, that would be NICE. But from Batum, I think the next few seasons will see Batum staying in the 18-20min per game range and get his stats up to around 8-9ppg, 5rpg, 1spg, 2bpg. Maybe more mins if Travis gets traded and Nic swings to the 4 in “small” line-ups.

I also think Martell has the makings of a very solid pro wing. I mean, if we all though James Jones had some value, Martell will be nothing less than an improvement over what Jones brought and on both ends of the floor. I believe Martell’s skill-set and physical ability will provide about the level of production of, say Bruce Bowen, James Posey, or Josh Howard… 12-15ppg, 4rpg, 2-3apg, 1spg in 25mins.

by Portland Dynasty on May 5, 2009 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

RLEC

No big pop of a deal as expected before the deadline.

Other than Raef, I’m going to say Bayless. Just hasn’t had the opportunity yet. I love his work ethic though, and Nate seems to be hard on rooks.

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on May 5, 2009 10:50 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

The answer is LaMarcus Aldridge

He’s by far the player the fanbase overrates the most. Its not particularly close.

Rudy Fernandez was my second choice.

by jksnake99 on May 5, 2009 10:58 AM PDT reply actions  

That's who I voted for

He can’t even beat out Sergio but minutes and fans want to get rid of Blake because they’re scared he can’t win his own playing time by getting better.

" i wish you were my dad :)" - In Walks Rudy

by tominhawaii on May 5, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bayless all the way... ftl

it was a clear black night, a clear white moon

by In Walks Rudy on May 5, 2009 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's hard to determine who exactly is the most overrated due to the nominal definition of the word.

The most overrated player who contributes to the team a lot is LaMarcus Aldridge.

The most overrated player who contributes to the team only a little is Travis Outlaw.

The most overraetd player who contributes to the team nothing at all is Jerryd Bayless.

by AK1984 on May 5, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

I almost recced ya

But I think LA gets beat up enough by you, Jake, and others (including Dave’s main page post a while back) that I can’t say he’s overrated.

" i wish you were my dad :)" - In Walks Rudy

by tominhawaii on May 5, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ditto.

LMA has a minority of the fans who think he’s overrated. However, they’re an extremely loud, opinionated minority, so it equals out the others and he’s rated properly. At least here on BE.

by Timmay! on May 5, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's how I saw it too

Oden is in a similar situation because he has such vocal haters that it diminishes the over ratedness.

" i wish you were my dad :)" - In Walks Rudy

by tominhawaii on May 5, 2009 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

LaMarcus is one of two Blazers

to increase their offensive output vs. the Rockets. Bonus points for that.
Rudy OTOH, was silent but for one game.

by levelhed on May 5, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Having a "most overrated" vote without including LMA is like...

…having a most scandalous ex-President vote without including Bill Clinton.

What gives?

I’m not saying LMA is the most overrated current Blazer, but a guy who just got outplayed thoroughly by Luis Scola, and is about to possibly get a max deal, ABSOLUTELY HAS to be in the conversation.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on May 5, 2009 11:00 AM PDT reply actions  

Um

you realize W. is an ex-president now right? Scandalous as is in sex scandal or well the myriad things Bush did? Sorry, I pretty much hate all Presidents since um…Eisenhower? So this isn’t a partisan thing but lets be reasonable.

"Death is not final," Gita says. "If any man thinks that he slays, and if another thinks that he is slain, neither knows the truth. The Eternal in man cannot kill: the Eternal in man cannot die. The soul in man is neither born nor does it die. Weapons cannot cut it; fire cannot burn it; water cannot drown it.

The Bhagavad Gita

by Idog1976 on May 5, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Either way, the point is...

Regardless of whether you think Clinton is the most scandalous ex-prez, getting a H2 in the oval office gets you a permanent place in the conversation – just like Lamarcus HAS to be in this poll.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on May 6, 2009 7:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

Outside of LMA, it's a toss up...

Steve, Nic, Martell, Jeryyd, and Sergio are all overrated by various contingencies of the fan base, from time to time.

Steve is a mediocre starting point guard who, as Ben hilariously put it, can’t take the Blazer assistant coaches off the dribble in pregame warmups. He’s a tenacious competitor, a really good three point shooter, and a good lockerroom guy, but he almost got my vote.

I voted for Nic, though, since he was made untouchable at the trade deadline when a young, defensive-minded borderline all-star was apparently available at the three (Wallace). I’m not saying that was the wrong move, but… we’ll see.

I would say Travis has been trashed enough that he’s underrated, if anything, by most fans, especially considering his contract.

Greg has been trashed enough that he may be a little underrated, as far as present value is concerned, while still possibly overrated generally in terms of “can’t miss” potential.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on May 5, 2009 11:10 AM PDT reply actions  

I think the hype for Oden among Blazer fans still exceeds the reality

However, it seems like the anti-hype for Oden nationally has gotten to the point where he is underrated by most people who aren’t Blazer fans.

by trk on May 5, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I 100% agree

When I talk to non-Blazer fans here in CA, the first thing they want to do is make fun of Oden.

by jksnake99 on May 5, 2009 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ler 'Em make fun of Oden...

The Blazer front court was a load for people this season… we should get used to the other fans hating on Oden, and soon Pryz and LMA… once a team goes over that edge to be a legitimate contender for a title, you are going to be hated. Lots of our-own fanbase kinda feel Portland is soft right now, but the growth and maturity of Oden and Aldridge for next year and beyond, teamed up with the strength of Pryzbilla who is totally in his prime right now will be a very feared unit.

Let ’Em make fun of Oden, he will be dunking on them, pinning their shots to the back board, and dominating them all over the paint very very soon.

by Portland Dynasty on May 5, 2009 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I should clarify

I’m not talking about people hating on Oden out of fear— I’m talking about people genuinely believing him to be an awful player… ie underrating him.

by jksnake99 on May 5, 2009 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Rudy

I think he is great, but as far as the fan bases obsession with him goes, it’s still technically and overrating. Travis Outlaw shouldn’t even be considered because no one rates him that high, hes always on the trade block and has done more than Rudy and Oden but still gets the shaft. If anything trout is underrated, though not as good as he should be.

This is simply based on how the fans rate our players and how they perform. You can’t call someone overrated just for being bad, they have to be rated high in the first place, and trout certainley isn’t, especially after the playoffs.

- Sam

by RipCitySam on May 5, 2009 12:50 PM PDT reply actions  

webster and oden

oden only because 95% of you people worships him so much,but webster without a doubt.if i hear 1 more about this sweet stroke of 1 of the most incosisteant blazers ever.my god the way you people talk about him he’s jerry west.i’ved never seen a player clank off the rim so much.and yet get so much love from you people geez.

by fatty on May 5, 2009 2:05 PM PDT reply actions  

and by the way

can you people stop making outlaw your whipping bou please.for 6 years i love trout,and all of a sudden he’s overrated.geez you talk about kicking somebody when their down.how about the 2 clowns i’ved mentioned above.at least travis tries hard and has improves.you definately can’t say the same for those 2.1 can’t hit the broad side of a barn half the time.the other well can you say injury prone.at least oden will have an off-season to get his butt in gear.

by fatty on May 5, 2009 2:11 PM PDT reply actions  

I can't believe Outlaw is winning this.

Is this just Outlaw hate or something?

I think the majority of fans either rate him properly, or slightly underrate him at this point. You can’t read any recent Outlaw thread and think we overrate him, unless you really, really despise him (and that shouldn’t be the case).

by Timmay! on May 5, 2009 3:05 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Yeah

With Outlaw it’s just hate. There was a get rid of Outlaw thread with 18 recs and hundreds of comments and I’m sure those folks all voted for Outlaw. Anyone who voted for Outlaw probably has a low Blogger IQ and don’t understand the concept of “over rated.”

" i wish you were my dad :)" - In Walks Rudy

by tominhawaii on May 5, 2009 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

what is with the polls

on SBnation, they never work for me. so who is winning this one?

by usmcr3049 on May 5, 2009 4:18 PM PDT reply actions  

That's weird, no problem here

On both Google Chrome and Firefox.

Here’s the vote totals as of 4:30pm PDT:

1% Joel Pryzbilla 2 votes
8% Greg Oden 12 votes
29% Travis Outlaw 43 votes
0% Channing Frye 0 votes
5% Martell Webster 8 votes
3% Nicolas Batum 5 votes
14% Rudy Fernandez 22 votes
14% Steve Blake 21 votes
8% Sergio Rodriguez 12 votes
15% Jerryd Bayless 23 votes

by Timmay! on May 5, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

I voted Bayless--

Like someone else mentioned, if he is obviously the answer to our so-called pg woes, why can’t he get off the bench in front of Sergio?

I like the whole team.

by RenoBlazerFan on May 5, 2009 5:15 PM PDT reply actions  

Bayless

I won’t like Bayless until he can contribute more than Jarrett Jack…. who killed Houston.

it was a clear black night, a clear white moon

by In Walks Rudy on May 5, 2009 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think Oden is most overrated.

Fans think that when he is in the game everybody is scared to drive to the middle. Thats not true. When Oden is in the game all PG just drive inside and make Oden foul them. Fans say that we dont need much from Oden, not cuz they dont hope or expect him to be great, but cuz if they would and he would not perform, it would look like he is a bust for a 1 pick.

And Oden, once again, is a rookie, so non-stop fast break basketball is like fast-forwarding a song while he's trying to learn the lyrics.

by RipCity on May 5, 2009 10:08 PM PDT reply actions  

As I said before...

Travis Outlaw

Every time Outlaw fades away in a shot, a kitten dies. Save the Kittens, don't fade!

by Przy4Prez on May 5, 2009 11:06 PM PDT reply actions  

Who is the most Over-Rated Blazer?

Not going to name names, but I think we have more retired players than the Celtics, Lakers, Pistons, and Bulls combined.

I'm the only thing I'm afraid of.

by prezofdeath on May 9, 2009 1:05 PM PDT reply actions  

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