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B Roy: 26.0 Playoff PER = Superstar

Here is a copy and paste of a great ESPN "insider" article I know not many of you want to pay for. Hope this works...

Insider Intel: Debutantes' Ball

The first playoff runs for Brandon Roy and Derrick Rose stack up well historically

Comment Print Share Neel By Eric Neel
ESPN.com
Archive | Contact <!-- end mod-article-title --> <!-- begin story body -->

The bad news for NBA playoff first-timers Brandon Roy and Derrick Rose is that they're spending the second round the same way I am, watching at home.

The good news for the Blazers' best player and the Bulls' young leader is that their inaugural postseason performances put them in some elite historical company.

[+] EnlargeBrandon Roy Bill Baptist/Getty ImagesRoy's mature game translated beautifully to playoff basketball.

In six games against the Rockets, the 24-year-old Roy, who fought through flu-like symptoms near the end of the series, put up a player efficiency rating (PER) of 26.0, highlighted by 26.7 points per game and a true shooting percentage (TS%) of .562. The PER was 5.2 points over his career average and two points over his rating during the regular season. And he showed a willingness to be The Man when it mattered most. Roy took 3.4 more shots per game than during the regular season, increasing his usage percentage (USG%) from 27.5 to 33.1.

How does Roy compare to other star players in their first playoff performances? Try superstar-good.

It was only six games, but Roy's first-time playoff PER of 26.0 looks mighty fine alongside the first playoff appearances for Ray Allen (23.7 in three games), LeBron James (23.2 in 13 games), Allen Iverson (22.6 in eight games), Paul Pierce (21.1 in 16 games), Vince Carter (18.2 in three games), Dwyane Wade (17.7 in 13 games), and Carmelo Anthony (9.8 in four games). (I'm leaving Kobe off this list because he was just 18 years old and played only 15 minutes a night during his first playoff run.)

In fact, Roy was so good that his first time in the playoffs affords him a seat at a sacred table. Not only did his robust PER hold up next to Michael Jordan's (24.7 in four games in 1985), Magic Johnson's (22.1 in 16 games in 1980) and Larry Bird's (18.3 in nine games in 1980), it leads the way. Does that mean his career path will follow theirs? Don't be silly, it was only six games. But Roy did prove a lot in the first round.

So, too, did Rose, during Chicago's epic seven-game series against Boston. As a 20-year-old rookie point guard, all Rose did was average 19.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg and 6.4 apg. His PER (13.3) wasn't particularly good, but that was largely due to subpar performances in Games 2 and 3. In every other measure, he was fantastic, increasing his assist and rebound percentages from the regular season as well as upping his scoring average. And despite logging nearly eight minutes a night more than he had all season, and increasing his per-game shot total from 14.9 to 17.1, Rose improved on his regular-season TS% by 0.11 and his effective field goal percentage (EFG%) by 0.1 in his first playoff appearance.

It's harder to find analogs for Rose than Roy; because 20-year-old rookie point guards are a rare playoff breed.

[+] EnlargeDerrick Rose AP Photo/Nam Y. HuhRose's first playoff appearance was a remarkable for a 20-year-old rookie.

Magic fit that description when he led the Lakers to the NBA title in 1980 and most of his numbers, from PER (22.1 to 13.4) to rebounds (10.5 to 6.3) and assists (9.4 to 6.4) per game, far exceeded Rose's. LeBron was 21 the first time he took the Cavs to the playoffs, and he too was more effective (a 23.2 PER, undergirded by 30.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 5.8 apg) than Rose. But LeBron wasn't a rookie in his first playoff run, and both he and Magic were (and are) 6-foot-9, mold-breaking freaks of nature capable of playing the point, the post and everything in between. They're a tough yardstick for Rose or anyone else to measure up against.

Wade, as a 22-year-old rookie first-timer, played a good deal of point in his first playoff season, so he is a better comparison. The Heat star outpaced Rose in playoff PER (17.7 to 13.4), assist percentage (30.6 to 26.8), and steal percentage (1.9 to 0.7). But they shot and got to the line equally well (both had a TS% of .527), and the younger Rose had the better first playoffs on the boards, (posting an 8.2 total rebound percentage versus Wade's 5.8) and blocking shots (1.2 block percentage versus 0.7).

Deron Williams, who was also 22 years old in his first playoff appearance (though a second-year man, not a rookie), is another decent point of comparison. Williams' playoff PER in 2003-04 was 18.8, and he has a considerable edge in first-time playoff AST% (39.1 to 26.8), STL% (2.1 to 0.7) and turnover percentage (18.2 to 21.1). But in Rose's first time around the playoff track he put up better rebound (8.2 to 6.5 TRB%) and block (1.2 to 0.6 BLK%) rates, and the two players were about even as shooters -- Williams' .535 TS% was slightly better than Rose's .527, and Rose's .492 EFG% was a tick stronger than Williams' .487.

And though he was a different style of point, if you turn on the way-back machine, you'll find 22-year-old rookie John Stockton's first-time playoff numbers (13.3 PER, .548 TS%, 3.6 TRB%, 35.9 AST%, 26.4 TOV% and 15.1 USG%) running a suggestive and promising parallel to Rose's (13.4 PER, .527 TS%, 8.2 TRB%, 26.8 AST%, 21.1 TOV% and 24.1 USG%) too.

Both Roy and Rose have weaknesses, of course. Roy's AST% dropped dramatically in the playoffs, while Rose's TOV% skyrocketed. They'll have to learn to involve their teammates more efficiently going forward. And prediction is obviously an imperfect science. Injuries, personnel and coaching changes and other distractions could end up derailing either player in the future.

But as we move on in the 2009 playoffs without them, may I suggest we take a beat and recognize the way each guy manned up in his first crack at the NBA's postseason.

And may I further suggest that given the way their numbers echo and compete with the records of some big-time names past and present, we're nowhere near the last of the good news for Brandon Roy and Derrick Rose.

 

Eric Neel is a senior writer for ESPN.com.

9 recs  |  Comment 15 comments

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Wow...that is pretty sweet.

Rip City Baby...People have no idea what is coming.

Follow my twitter www.twitter.com/PDXBlazersFTW, @PDXBlazersFTW. Lots of random Blazer Posts from links I find around the blogosphere.

by lanepete on May 4, 2009 9:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That's an insane PER

Imagine if his passes actually led to assists…

by Eventine on May 4, 2009 10:23 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I figure this post will probably be deleted so I'm going to say something dumb

Rockets are guaranteed to win the championship… winning game 1 against the Lakers proves it! Brandon Roy will cure cancer this offseason, and the Blazer Dancers are freakin awesome!!!!

Hilarious side note: Firefox suggests “Fakers” as an appropriate spelling for “Lakers”

by Gargen on May 4, 2009 10:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

You sexist

"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''

by Sabonis4Ever on May 4, 2009 11:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why will this post get deleted?

I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

by haildablazer on May 5, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can't just cut and paste an article here

You can only use snippets and then link to the original article.

" i wish you were my dad :)" - In Walks Rudy

by tominhawaii on May 5, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmmm

So he should have just put all this in a block quote and just claimed it was a snippet.

I’m glad I did get to read this, even if it does get deleted. I don’t have much disposable income, and I’m certainly not spending it on ESPN insider.

I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

by haildablazer on May 5, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

My guess is that it didn’t get flagged enough or Dave missed it.

See rule 1: http://www.blazersedge.com/story/2007/5/27/35733/4476

Yeah, I paid for insider, I didn’t mind at the time because it was cheap for two years and I got 2 years of ESPN magazine. The magazine is lame. I got the playoff mag two days after the Blazers were out of the playoffs.

" i wish you were my dad :)" - In Walks Rudy

by tominhawaii on May 6, 2009 4:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heh.

ESPN Insider… I will NEVER pay for these services!

Free’s a very good price.

--

by CaptainSexyJacob on May 4, 2009 11:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The most exciting thing about the Franchise right now is B.Roy....

Brandon Roy IS TOTALLY LEGIT. period. Portland has that superstar scoring leader to continue to build everything around. Not only that, but Roy’s leadership and personality are seemingly magnetic to the other players around him.

We do have a lot of exciting young players on this team, but just knowing what we have with Brandon Roy at the helm makes me believe that good things are going to continue to be surrounding this franchise for a long time.

When the ball is in Roy’s hand and it is crunch time… you just feel like Portland is in total control of the outcome of games.

by Portland Dynasty on May 5, 2009 9:05 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Thats a superstar, baby.

I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

by haildablazer on May 5, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Amazing

if he can put up those numbers with the flu in the playoffs that is just spectacular. not to mention it was against a very good deffensive player Ron Artest. Artest said that Roy was the best player he has ever gaurded. He is only 24 and he is a superstar. HE PUT UP THOOSE NUMBERS WITH THE FLU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by broy for mvp on May 5, 2009 9:58 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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