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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Very interesting article by the author of "The Tipping Point" and "Outliers."

almost 3 years ago Player-coach_donahue15_tiny jksnake99 21 comments 0 recs  | 

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Pretty long, but a good read.

They touched on it a little, but the main reason coaches don’t try new things is that they don’t want to be social outcasts.

-If you do something the “normal” way and lose 7 out of 10 times, it’s okay.
-If you take the same team, do something an “unusual” way and only lose 3 out of 10 times, you get criticized for losing 3 games because of your “unusual” tactics.

We see this all the time with many pro baseball teams refusing to bunt and many pro football teams refusing to go for it on 4th and short, or even 4th and 1.

The press idea is interesting, but in terms of NBA standards, I’m not sure if it could work. Typically 4 of the players on the other team will be able to handle the ball. If you press with all non centers, they can sub in a non center as well and have 5 ball handlers. The players are also faster at the NBA level and it would be easier to lose someone for a free fast break. The season is also very long and regardless of the shape you are in, this would wear down on the players.

I can’t prove this of course, but I think it would be similar to football in this way. In college, the option and spread offenses are both very effective. In the NFL, the option isn’t that viable of an option and although I’ve yet to see a true spread, I don’t think it would work. The opponents are so much faster and smarter than these “gimmick” offenses don’t work. Look at Reggie Bush. One of the best college players ever, yet a mediocre pro thus far.

I’d be willing to bet that pressing the entire game would dominate 9-13 year old leagues. Once you get into high school it would be extremely effective and could lead to state playoffs/titles. In college it can work, but how many titles have been won by it? In the NBA, I’m not so sure it’d be effective.

It would be a fun experiment for a road playoff team though. In game 1 of the series, press the entire game to try and steal home court advantage. In the NBA, the opposing team would figure out how to beat it for Game 2, but as we just learned… losing Game 1 on your home floor would be the series.

by Zaig on May 4, 2009 3:29 PM PDT reply actions  

couple points

- I think the 4th and short analogy is a great one. The bunt— not so much— if anything, MLB teams overuse the bunt. Statistical analysis has shown that even a successful sacrifice bunt usually lowers the expected runs for the inning— thus moneyball teams like the A’s and the Rays rarely bunt.

- The press has won multiple titles in college. Arkansas won a title with the “40 minutes of hell” system and nearly won a 2nd despite having little NBA talent. Rick Pitino has used the press to great success. Missouri pressed their way into the elite 8 this year, and their best player, Senior DeMarre Carroll, doesn’t show up in draftexpress’ mock draft. The press works in college hoops. I would agree that a non-stop press might not work in the NBA, but it sure would be interesting to see… who knows?

by jksnake99 on May 4, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Malcolm Gladwell is a Hack

I’ve read Tipping Point and Outliers and while he tells a great story and is a master of all types of logical fallacies, his research is full of holes and gives you a false sense of understanding. This short article is perfect example. He uses a couple stories including the 8th grade girls basketball team and then extrapolates it far beyond the limits of the data (NBA are you serious?). His case studies should never be used in the way he uses them but they always have a truth buried in them that is valuable if you look close enough. Everyone should know going in that more than half of his claims are wildly unsubstantiated.

by TigardTrailblazer on May 4, 2009 4:41 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

he definetely does make some fairly crazy extrapolations

I wouldn’t call him a hack, though. I generally find his theories, while not fully substantiated, plausible and thought provoking.

by jksnake99 on May 4, 2009 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

I sorta agree

Yeah, this article was kind of interesting but really dragged on telling us something we already know.

Oh, when less skilled/powerful/prepared/qualified than your opponent you can use unexpected strategies to exploit weaknesses and surprise them? 300? Lord of the Rings? Star Wars? Custer’s Last Stand? The American Revolution? Vietnam?

Also, sure, full-court press works great against 7th grade girls but…wait…THEY’RE SEVENTH GRADE GIRLS. Have you ever seen a game the score is like 4-7 at halftime.


    "At the nationals, the Redwood City girls won their first two games. In the third round, their opponents were from somewhere deep in Orange County. Redwood City had to play them on their own court, and the opponents supplied their own referee as well. The game was at eight o’clock in the morning. The Redwood City players left their hotel at six, to beat the traffic. It was downhill from there. The referee did not believe in "One, two, three, attitude HAH." He didn’t think that playing to deny the inbounds pass was basketball. He began calling one foul after another.

    "They were touch fouls," Craig said. Ticky-tacky stuff. The memory was painful."

Touch fouls! And that’s why it wouldnt’ work in the NBA anyway.

Rudy, Rudy, Rudy,
Roy, Roy, Roy!

by joelor on May 4, 2009 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

I actually lost respect for Gladwell in reading that article

I thought it was very poorly conceived on many levels. The David v. Goliath is a terrible analogy for the press. The press is not a good strategy for traditional underdogs, but highly athletic teams…. It also tends to work increasingly well against less skilled opponents. The better the opponent, the less likely a press will work. Almost the exact opposite of a good tactic for underdogs!

by PoliSam on May 4, 2009 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

are you serious?

The Arkansas Razorbacks national champions had 1 NBA player— Corliss Williamson. The Missouri Tigers team that just took the Big 12 title and made the elite 8 likely has zero NBA players. Tigers coach Mike Anderson used the press to pull several major tournament upsets while he was at UAB. You have the example from Germany linked above.

The analogy obviously has limitations— the press is also a great way for Goliath to put away a David early in a game— but in the examples Gladwell cited, I thought the analogy worked well.

by jksnake99 on May 5, 2009 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

The Razarbacks....

were far from a “David”. They were an enormously talented team. A very, very athletic team. Calling them a David is simply misleading, a gross over simplification. Again, the press is a strategy that favors a specific skill set, not simply underdogs. That they did not have a lot of future NBA players is neither here nor there. The NCAA is a different game. There have been all types of teams with less talent that have succeeded in the NCAA tournament. Many have not used the press. To cite but a few:

-Villanova won the national title not using the press

-Washington State has succeeded in recent seasons with essentially the opposite strategy of a press.

-In high school boys basketball, the opposite strategy is used to help less talented teams win: stall-ball, holding onto the ball in the half-court for long stretches of time.

Moreover, anyone that pays attention knows that the full court press is very, very common in girls basketball. Most of the successful teams use it. It’s not some sort of norm shattering strategy. It’s actually the norm. Why? Because its effective given the skills and athletic ability of high school girls basketball. This example of some computer guy that brilliantly broke norms and implemented the press just showed me how little Gladwell knows about the subject he is writing about.

-Why didn’t Gladwell mention Rick Pitino’s amazing NBA career as a coach?

by PoliSam on May 5, 2009 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Like the authors of Freakonomics, he has an unusual ability to find interesting stories buried in heaps of data and academic papers

Only his methods are more journalistic than scientifically founded. If it hinders a great anecdote, I doubt he would point out all the potential flaws in his analysis. But in an era when “Who moved my cheese” and “Habits” are best-selling business books, he can probably be considered a pretty solid researcher :)

by Norsktroll on May 5, 2009 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

Funny, I don't think of him as a researcher

I think of him as a storyteller who makes me question things.

by Corvid on May 5, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

he's valuable because...

he’s made me think about things that I’ve just held assumptions about. “Hack” is a bit much. He does have a formula that he doesn’t stray from, that, if you can’t get over, would be annoying.

Yellow Mamba FTW!

by northwestj on May 5, 2009 4:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Looks good

 I hate reading long pieces online, though. I’ll wait for my print copy of the New Yorker.

by robrun2 on May 4, 2009 6:15 PM PDT reply actions  

great find! I love Gladwell

havent read outliers yet, looking foreward to it though

C*mcast sucks!

by Blazermaniac77 on May 4, 2009 7:01 PM PDT reply actions  

'blink' is interesting too

he does kind of have a schtick, but I’ve found him pretty fascinating

Yellow Mamba FTW!

by northwestj on May 5, 2009 4:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

the press has worked in Europe

See the first post above.

It works in the NCAA. It works in Europe. Why not give it at least a limited try?

by soci on May 4, 2009 9:30 PM PDT reply actions  

This translates to the NBA fo sho

This is exactly what Nellie is doing (or did back when they beat the warriors) in Golden State. Also similar to Mike ‘shoot it shoot it shoot it’ D’Antoni.

Yellow Mamba FTW!

by northwestj on May 5, 2009 8:22 AM PDT reply actions  

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