Pencil Blazers in as 09-10 NW Division Favorites
by Ben. on May 30, 2009 1:47 PM PDT
86 comments
Hot off the heels of their playoff elimination, John Hollinger takes a deep look at some of the problems facing the Denver Nuggets this offseason. As the Nuggets and Blazers tied for the division crown this year, it's well worth your time to read through the list of player decisions they must make and the financial philosophy that compromises some of their management's flexibility.
Hollinger concludes...
All of which takes us back to a basic, somewhat universal problem -- it's hard getting to this point in the first place, but often it's even harder getting back.
The Hornets thought they'd be back in contention when their season ended a year ago, and the Jazz thought the same thing the year before that when they made it to the Western Conference finals. The Nuggets learned a lot in this group's first venture past the first round of the playoffs, but it remains an open question whether they'll have a chance to apply what they learned next spring.
Taking all factors into consideration, and acknowledging that KP remains in a tough spot entering the draft and free agency thanks to Martell's continuing injury, Darius's contract, Blake's surgery, and Sergio's me-first posturing, I'd rather have Portland's problems than either Denver's or Utah's.
I'd also rather have Portland's projected roster. Even in the worst-case scenario described in the post below this one, the early, early, early expectation for Blazers fans should be the team's first outright division crown since 1998-1999. Anything less should be considered a disappointment.
And with that statement we can make another one: the championship window for the Blazers is now officially open. As Hollinger notes, that window can close just as quickly as it opens. Carpe Offseason, KP.
-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)
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Early prediction on wins
58 before knowing what roster moves if any will be made.
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
His stare became blank. It was apparent he was back in that place, on the Rose Garden's logo, picking up Aaron Brooks as the crowd nervously roared.
by Dragonage on May 30, 2009 1:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of Martell
has he been able to go full speed yet?
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
by Magnum on May 30, 2009 2:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
In other news Nene broke his arm in the game yesterday
by Norsktroll on May 30, 2009 2:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
it's a long time before training camp
he came back from cancer, I don’t think a broken arm will keep him down long
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
by Magnum on May 30, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
It probably wasn’t too serious was it? Left or right arm?
She lives in my lap
WORD UP.STAY.FRESCO
by Dheepan on May 30, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
With that news
Denver would have been done even if they somehow had pulled that game out yesterday.
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
His stare became blank. It was apparent he was back in that place, on the Rose Garden's logo, picking up Aaron Brooks as the crowd nervously roared.
by Dragonage on May 30, 2009 2:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Denver and Utah will work something out this summer.
The Northwest Division race will be a dogfight.
I like it.
by MiledAnimal on May 30, 2009 2:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
a healthy Utah team is dangerous
imagine what would have happened if they hadn’t spent half the season without their starting lineup intact.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
by Magnum on May 30, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
a healthy and intact Utah team is dangerous
but i believe Utah faces some serious issues of their own (Boozer’s status, anyone???)
by blacknoiseNW on May 30, 2009 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
both teams stand to lose at least one major contributor… Utah will probably lose one of Okur, Boozer, Milsap… Denver will lose at least one of Kleiza, Jones, Andersen.
proud hinrichsheeple
by Cablinasian on May 30, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Blazers will likely lose one of Ruffin, Frye, Shav, LaFrentz, Rodriguez....oh wait...
by Norsktroll on May 30, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
we wish
we’re probably losing all of those guys.
by as11osu on May 30, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt we will lost them all
LaFrentz definitely gone, Ruffin gone, Shav who knows, Frye I bet we will keep for a sign and trade, and Rodriguez will stay because of the Rudy factor.
by the-L-train on Jun 2, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dogfights are fun
I miss the good old days with Quintell and his pals
by southern oregon on May 30, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Nuggets have issues going into next year
the Jazz are the greater concern if they keep everyone and they stay healthy.
Just thought of this and posted it in another topic. Is there anyway we decline the options on Outlaw, Blake and Frye, to open up enough room to offer Paul Millsap and the Utah Jazz a poison pill contract?
I know I’d rather have Millsap than Outlaw and Blake. And I don’t see the Jazz matching a 60-70 million dollar contract that we could potentially offer Millsap if we were to decline Outlaw and Blake’s contract.
This would be a no win situation for the Jazz. If for some reason we aren’t able to get him, we could offer Ariza and Bass great contracts, or other like FA’s.
by as11osu on May 30, 2009 2:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
that seems like a lot of money to pay for a backup PF
I don’t think we can give Milsap the kind of minutes that would warrant signing him at any price. Why get in a bidding war with the Jazz for a guy we can only play 18 minutes a game at the most?
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
by Magnum on May 30, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Przybilla won't be here forever...
Millsap can be a match with both Oden and Aldridge, meaning plenty of minutes down the road. Also crippling Utah has its advantages.
by as11osu on May 30, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
still
that’s 2 years of overpaying a back up who is also probably unhappy he gets so few minutes
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
by Magnum on May 30, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I beginning to like the idea
of declining the option on Blake and Outlaw (or try to trade them to someone under the cap for a future pick of sorts) and get 17 mil of cap space. KP could do a lot of damage with that and force some teams into a tough situation. Imagine of Boozer goes to Detroit and the Jazz NEED to sign Millsap. KP could force them to pay more than they want.
If we did this, I would rather go after a top notch PG and maybe Bass. 17 million could bring an all star type PG in trade or FA.
by utblazer on May 30, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
the world is your oyster with 18 million in cap space. You could sign Ariza and Bass, or some like combo if you’re not able to get Millsap. Another route to go if any team likes Outlaw or Blake enough would be to trade them to a team with cap space themselves, and pick up a pick or two to move up in the draft.
Or just have other teams dump bad contracts on you along with their picks, or a guy like Conley.
by as11osu on May 30, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
who are some PGs to target with 18 million?
we need to get someone as dependable as Blake
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
by Magnum on May 30, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most of the ones mentioned before and more
Sessions, Conley, Kidd, Nash, Hinrich…and more
The key is that we could make it work via trade and take back a bigger contract or through FA
by utblazer on May 30, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Felton, Sessions, Kidd, Bibby, Miller, Iverson, House, Johnson, Jackson, Knight
by as11osu on May 30, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On top of guys you could easily trade for with all that cap space
Hinrich, Conley etc… or again, picking up picks to move up (Rubio/Jennings)
by as11osu on May 30, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Imagine
trading for Conley and signing Bass or McDyess and then having a likely top ten pick from Charlotte next year by taking on Hunter’s contract from Denver as mentioned in the article.
by utblazer on May 30, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Denver won't trade with us...
But IMO Conley Jr and Bass are a possibility. They also happen to be a possibility anyway because Memphis likes Trout.
by as11osu on May 30, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I put this below
but we could sign Sessions, Millsap and take hunter for Charlotte’s pick next year.
by utblazer on May 30, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
why ariza?
ya he plays good defense but so does batum and martell isn’t bad so letting travis go stilll gives u two sf that can defend adding ariza would just complicate things more because we would have to get rid of another sf. Also he isn’t as good of a 3pt shooter as marty and nic could be just as good as him at that. So signing him wouldn’t be much of an upgrade if any at all
"Howard, he know me" Rudy
by phillyduck23 on May 30, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ariza is the only player in the league that can bother LBJ
That’s who we’ll end up playing most likely in the next 5-10 years if we’re where we want to be. You should check him out… he’s playing pretty ridiculous right now.
by as11osu on May 30, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Frankly
no one can bother LeBron.
Certified blazer.fangirl
by Roybot on May 30, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
u beat me to it
i think peitrus is doing a fine job on him right now and look how good lebrons numbers are anyways.
And its not that ariza isn’t good but he is basically nic only a few years older and probably more attitude, and adding him would be way to complicated for how much better he may be(u let travis go them probably trade martell just so that you could have the chance to sign him for probably more then he is worth, no thanks)
"Howard, he know me" Rudy
by phillyduck23 on May 30, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank God we have him then
instead of Ariza.
Certified blazer.fangirl
by Roybot on May 30, 2009 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't $18 million what we would have had
if the Celtics and Grizzlies hadn’t played Darius?
by MiledAnimal on May 30, 2009 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The purpose
for the bidding war is to force Utah to pay more than they want to but not going more than we would want if we ended up getting Millsap, which would be a great fit in our frontline.
by utblazer on May 30, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ariza is not what we need bass would be a big help
by B1azerfan on May 30, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
tune in to the playoffs...
Ariza is killing
by as11osu on May 30, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the Blazers were fine at the 3
before getting Martell back. Martell will only help.
by blacknoiseNW on May 30, 2009 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no moves at all, I say 56.
proud hinrichsheeple
by Cablinasian on May 30, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Conceivably
We could sign Sessions, Bass, and take Hunter from Denver for Charlotte’s 1st round pick next year which could end up a lottery pick.
by utblazer on May 30, 2009 2:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Seeing how Charlotte has never made the playoffs
That seems like a good bet.
by Sabonis4Ever on May 30, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ouch
Land was created to provide a place for boats to visit.
by The Pirate on May 30, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I totally expect to see premature shirts like this whenever I'm in Africa or SE Asia
That’s also where you come across old Damon and Woods shirts.
by Norsktroll on May 30, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should send my cuz one
I can just see the smoke coming out of her ears.
by southern oregon on May 30, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blazer fans should buy the lot and wear them
the first game the Nuggets play at the Rose Garden next season.
by MiledAnimal on May 30, 2009 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some thinggs are just too cruel
That is one of them…
Proud member of Duck nation!
by skywaker9 on May 30, 2009 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it would be different if every franchise didn't do the exact same thing
if this was the first time or unique to the Nuggets I’d say we should taunt them until our throats were sore
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
by Magnum on May 31, 2009 2:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I think the Blazers will get it done next year, though it could be an interesting 3 team race.
by jksnake99 on May 30, 2009 3:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i say 62 wins next year
if they continue to play like they did at the end of this season
"Howard, he know me" Rudy
by phillyduck23 on May 30, 2009 3:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If we can learn to beat good west teams on teh road
We’re golden…
Proud member of Duck nation!
by skywaker9 on May 30, 2009 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
by the jump in wins
you guys expect, it seems we should be winning 79 games in just a few years… you do realize, we don’t need overhype our team for next years regular season. 50ish wins should get us in the playoffs. dont put such high expectations on our guys. yeah we have a good shot of winning the conference. we almost did this year… but dont act like the teams that were always easy W’s are going to be the same this year, min, mem, okc, we might not get as many freebies next year. just hope for homecourt in playoffs.
by Obsidian on May 30, 2009 5:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Denver may be down but Houston will be back and Utah also (if they keep Okur & Boozer)
Somehow Phoenix will also have one more shot. We are on track to be contenders. But we must progress from young to savvy.
"What's so interesting is that this team took on a dynamic that was very special. I don't think we as a group, in terms of management, coaches and players, realize what we did as a young team. We broke all the metrics. We broke all the molds. Our challenge is can we continue to do that. As young of a team with 54 wins, no issues off the court, phenomenal chemistry." - Kevin Pritchard
by lee3022 on May 30, 2009 6:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Houston may be back...
but their core guys are getting old and are injury prone. They have some great role players but I don’t see them being a future contender.
by Dmartyparty on May 31, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blazers will win the division. A "slam dunk" says a former CIA director.
To make it more interesting, what if da Blazers were only 14 inches tall? Give me your win totals with a full-size Nate and contrast with the mini-Nate scenario. I say 50/43. With a full-size Nate, da Blazers still win the division, but with only a mini-Nate, and considering the level of competition in the West, they’d get a winning record but might not make the playoffs. Now I know a lot of you guys will be disagreeing with me on this, but, hey, I’m a realist.
"Just kidding"
by CatMan2 on May 30, 2009 7:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Denver could be a much different team...
Virtually all their bench players are FAs this summer….
Proud member of Duck nation!
by skywaker9 on May 30, 2009 8:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like Blazers' chances in the NW division
Most def.
It’s harder to predict the actual number of wins because it depends on the distribution of talent across the rest of the league. I believe the Blazers will be better, but its “mathematically” possible for them to have the same record even with a better team.
I just finished watching Howard take his team to the NBA finals, so it’s hard to think about the importance of Oden to the Blazers’ future.
by PoliSam on May 30, 2009 9:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Denver had a nice run, and Utah has some talent.
However, the Blazers were on the cusp of a Division title well before ANY of their key players hit their prime. You could argue that Blake and Prz are key players in their primes, but those were the two least productive positions for the Blazers in terms of net PER. The Blazers were better when they leveraged their youth.
by blacknoiseNW on May 30, 2009 11:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm predicting 61 wins and the 3rd seed in 09-10
But don’t quote me on that ;-)
Blazers win!
by The X-man on May 30, 2009 11:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think 54 wins has to be considered worst case next year for Portland
With the projected improvement of all the young players (especially Oden), that makes 60 wins a real possibility. I think Denver is still a threat though. Carmelo is starting to hit his prime, and he carried the Nuggets in some games this season. He may do even more in the next season.
We’ll see though. There’s a lot left to determine. Based on how the rosters look now, though, I can’t see how Portland wouldn’t be the favorites to win the division in 09-10.
Yes! Yes! In the face!
by LeafHawk on May 30, 2009 11:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
When it comes to the championship window issue
I really don’t see why the Blazers championship window “can close just as quickly as it opens”. Minus career-ending injury to a big 3, what would possibly make this happen? Denver is not built for sustainable success, so it is obvious why they will not be the same team next year or a few years down the line. Portland really is built for a long window like the Spurs who have had that window from 99-.. well.. if it is not closed as of now, it will be closed after next season.
“Castles made of sand, fall into the sea, eventually.”
KP has done a great job of preserving the the future of that window (not building our castle on the sand) while pushing us to get to that window faster than a lot of people might have figured was possible. While I want KP to seize the present to get us to another next level, I think he knows exactly what he is doing and isn’t even slightly worried about this window closing in the next decade (even if we have to board it up for a storm or two during that time).
Also, to end in geekiness on semantics, ‘Carpe’ is a misused verb in Latin. We translate it as ‘Seize’ (i.e., Carpe Diem), but it’s actual meaning is more like ‘Pluck’.. so the saying was never supposed to mean grab the day.. but pluck it like flower on the path of your life. ‘Cape Off-season’ would mean seize or capture the off-season.
"Slum dunk? You just go to the rim, and crush.. crush the ball in the rim."
- Nic Batum
by idoltime on May 31, 2009 1:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i don't care about div. championships or how many wins they get if they go on win a title
1st step, beat on elite team (at full strength) on the road.
"The problem with tweeners is that sometimes they’re exactly what you need to plug the hole and sometimes they are the hole."
-LaughingJon
by appel82 on May 31, 2009 9:12 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
If we are mostly healthy (the standard disclaimer)
60-sumthin’ wins and we win the West.
If Oden is closer to being Oden than not, we go to the Finals.
There, bam, done. It’s easy, I don’t get why we’ve only won one championship thus far.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on May 31, 2009 9:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Morty is KP.
The “bam” gave him away.
Bedge or go home.
by Ojala John on May 31, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
He said "bake the cake" once too
This is proof!!!
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on May 31, 2009 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does he ask himself questions
and then answer them by saying “absolutely.”?
Certified blazer.fangirl
by Roybot on May 31, 2009 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or "you bet."
Certified blazer.fangirl
by Roybot on May 31, 2009 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
LA says that a lot too
along with “I think…” and “uhh”
Certified blazer.fangirl
by Roybot on May 31, 2009 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it’s about the culture.
proud hinrichsheeple
by Cablinasian on May 31, 2009 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think keeping Sergio, Bayless, and Blake is the worst-case scenario
Just off the top of my head, I’d say Roy getting a season ending injury over the summer or signing Stephon Marbury is way worse than having those guys on the roster this Fall.
by tominhawaii on Jun 2, 2009 6:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Portlands goal should be 60 wins
HOUSTON YOU HAVE A PROBLEM! BECAUSE YOUR PLAYIN RIP CITY BABY!!!!!!!!!!
by ripcityphan on Jun 7, 2009 1:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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