What If?
by Dave on May 29, 2009 11:13 PM PDT
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PrintThe hot, or at least continuous, topic so far this season has been the point guard rotation. This begs a good weekend question.
No matter how much you want to make a move you often find that the right deal just isn't there when you want it to be. We've heard tons of speculation about available players but the distance between speculation and an executed trade is as big as a beluga's backside. Sometimes you have to wait longer than you wanted. Sometimes you never get the guy you were after.
What if that happens to the Blazers this summer with their point guards?
If Portland walks into fall camp with Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez, and Jerryd Bayless again, how do you make it work? What do you do with each player, or what would you expect to see? Is there any way to turn that into a workable rotation? Is there anybody else on the team who breaks that rotation? Roy? Fernandez?
Help me out with what would seem to be a worst-case-scenario for all involved. Make it better for us without making any moves.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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Release Sergio...
Blake and Bayless compete for the job, Brandon and Rudy can be the 3rd point
I don't normally do this, but I felt compelled to tell you something. You have an absolutely breath-taking... heiney. I mean, that thing's good. I wanna be friends with it
Honestly, I think Nate McMillan would rather have Mateen Cleaves on the team over Sergio Rodriguez.
I, of course, want nothing to do with Cleaves, although he performed admirably for the Bakersfield Jam in the D-League last season.
I would hope...
that Sergio would come in to training camp with a positive attitude and do everything that the coaching staff asks without complaining or resentment. Bayless needs to have a summer league that is more assist oriented than point oriented. We know he can score, now lets see him run the point (as long as we have some players that he can pass to). Its still Blakes job unless either of the other points can take it away from him. Unless there is a bigger jump in Bayless’ game to beat Sergio, Jerryd will ride the pines possibly one more year, or at least the first half. I think that by the end of the year Jerryd will be ahead of Sergio.
First of all...
Bayless and Sergio were really close this year. There were a couple times when Nate said he was going with Bayless and then eventually went back to Sergio. If Bayless improves even just a little I think it’s a lock that he gets the backup minutes coming out of training camp.
I don’t think Rudy will ever be a PG on this team. He doesn’t have the dribbling capabilities and even though his passes can be spectacular, I’m not sure they would be consistently effective over an entire season. Roy could fill some of the PG minutes, but I think that should probably be limited to small stretches in the fourth quarter.
In the end I think Blake would probably hold on to the starting spot again. Bayless is such a wild card though, I guess there’s a chance he could come into training camp and blow everyone away. I imagine his jump shot will be a lot better and he certainly won’t have lost any of his drive.
There’s also a chance that he kills Blake and takes the starting spot by force.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 29, 2009 11:30 PM PDT reply actions
I dont think the Sergio vs Bayless thing was really that close at all....
Nate loves point guards that approach the game like bayless and seemingly dislikes points with Sergio’s approach. Sergio has even gone public stating that him and Nate simply look at basketball differently. Even with that bias, Nate HAD to go with Sergio as he was clearly the better point guard and I dont think it was all that close. Rex did some nice things, but nearly all of them had little to no positive impact to the flow of the team. In his good games he was a one man show, simply put. The fact is, Nate hates the way Sergio plays. Sergio has damn near spelled it out for all of Spain. Yet Nate knew he had to go with the better option(Sergio) despite trying to go in Bayless’s direction multiple times.
I still think a big mistake the blazers can make is putting too much faith in Bayless next season. You promote him to permanent backup and what happens when our starting point goes down for 8 weeks? Does anyone hear really believe that the Bayless we saw this year is anywhere close to starter material? Judging from his rookie year it could be argued that Bayless was fortunate to be a lottery pick. Look, I love Bayless’s potential, I am just not in love with it. I need to see more from the kid before I consider him a quality #2 pg on a contending team.
Therefore, I would be ok with Blake as a starter and Sergio vs Bayless for the #2 spot. May the best man win. Granted, somebody isnt going to be happy, but I don’t care. If Sergio gets beat out, he has nobody to blame but himself and vice versa. Competition breeds excellence…
RUDY > MJ
What's Sergio going to say?
If they look at the game differently it’s probably because Nate likes point guards who can shoot and defend. He’s crazy like that.
I think it was pretty close. There were a few times when Nate benched Sergio and basically told the media that he was going with Bayless. Then Bayless would play really inconsistent and Nate would go back to Sergio. That sounds like it was pretty close to me.
In my opinion Bayless at his best is much better than Sergio. Unfortunately Bayless is inconsistent and we don’t see his best enough. I still think if he improves even just a little he will have that spot locked up.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 30, 2009 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Bayless wasn't just off by a little
he needs a full over transplant from last season to be better than Sergio. You say Nate likes a point guard that can shoot, well Sergio had a very clear edge in that category last year. Sergio had an eFG% of .42 compared to Bayless’ .27. Do you know how bad .27 is? Josh Smith, the guy with the worst jumper in the league had one of .35 last year. Then there is the issue with Bayless’ turnovers and lack of passing ability. His defense also was awful last year. He allowed opposing PG’s a PER of 19, while Sergio only 15. The team was also 2 and a half points better per 100 possessions with Sergio on the court.
If you want to just sell your soul and say we’re developing this guy and that’s that, that’s fine, but at least admit to yourself, if Bayless hasn’t improved a ton from last year, we’re flat playing the inferior point guard and that will cost you games.
Bayless was a rookie
On a bad team he would have put up decent stats, and we’d all be talking about him right now in the Trade Drawers, don’t you think?
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 30, 2009 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Not especially...
I think getting to come to a team like Portland can only help him, especially in the efficiency numbers, where he got better looks, and passed to better players. On a bad team his quantity of production might’ve been higher, but I’m pretty sure no one would be wanting to give up serious assets for him. IMO if we wouldn’t have drafted Bayless next year, I’d be writing about a million posts on the positives of Brandon Jennings, knowing we couldn’t get high enough to get Rubio.
That's a relative term
If Sergio had played the last three years on a bottom-dwelling team, we might be trying to give up one or two players to pair him with Rudy and Roy.
It’s very believable Sergio would be a different player right now, had he played under a different coach with more gametime minutes to work out his kinks.
In fact, if both Sergio and Bayless were on different bottom-dwelling teams right now, I think the Trade Drawer would be full of “How do we get Sergio?” posts, and have some scattered “How do we get Bayless? Let’s not give up much, we already have a much better version of him in Roy” posts.
by Timmay! on May 30, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well played, Timmay
As I recall, Sergio did look pretty good in his one year on a “bottom dwelling” team.
I think we need to get over this meme of “If this player were on a bottom dweller, we’d be clamoring to get them”, whether it’s Bayless or whoever. Playing on bad teams can be extremely beneficial to individual development in terms of having pressure free reps and the chance to look for your own shot without consequences that we just can’t really give guys like Bayless and Sergio now, especially as we’re trying to develop the most important piece on our team, Oden.
As much has been made of KG and Ray Allen’s effect on Rondo’s development, if he hadn’t been able to start all of his rookie year on that terrible Celtics team, Boston probably doesn’t win the title last year. Almost every great PG in the league right now has had the opportunity at some point in their career to start on a sub-.500 team before they became all stars. Kidd, Paul, Williams, Billups, Miller all started on bad teams as rooks. The Mavs were bad in Nash’s first few years. Jameer Nelson’s early Magic teams were bad, and the Grizzlies were terrible in Mike Bibby’s first few years. Devin Harris didn’t really break out until he got to play for a bad Nets team.
Sure, there have been a couple exceptions, like Tony Parker or Baron Davis, but both those guys came into situations surrounded by tons of vets (Duncan, Robinson, Ferry, Porter, Smith for Parker, Campbell, Coleman, Phills, Wesley, Jones for Baron), as opposed to us with only Blake and Joel.
That’s why I see someone like Conley or Sessions as much more valuable to us than Bayless right now. They’ve had that opportunity to feel things out and should be ready to start contributing big minutes to a winning team. I’m not sure we’ll be able to give Jerryd the same opportunity.
Well said.
Thanks for expanding past my comments, it was a good read.
I think Bayless might be helped by the fact that, while we don’t have long-time veterans yet, we do have folks like Brandon who will quickly start being seen as vets.
I also presume that, even if we get a Sessions or Conley, KP will also be looking at adding one or two savvy veterans (1 guard, 1 forward?) with the remaining roster spots. Even if they’re past their prime, they’re wonderful for practice, and maybe clutch situations.
What you are saying is thought provoking
but most of the guys you mention, besides Rondo and Parker, were high draft picks so they were going to play for “bad” teams. I dont know if this correlation is casual though.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
There are actually a couple inferences that could be made
neither one particularly positive for Bayless.
First would be what I detailed above, that PGs need reps on bad teams.
The other one being that NBA teams are generally really good at identifying top PG talent out of college (even if they’re too impatient to stick by it sometimes). Of the guys mentioned, every single one was a top 8 pick, except for Parker, Rondo, Nash, and Nelson, and three of those guys still got the “bad team benefit”. But if NBA teams are great at identifying PG talent, it’s not a good sign for Jerryd that 10 teams passed on him, with 4 of those team taking a combo/point guard instead of him (not even counting Gordon in that group) and another team with a large hole at PG passing (NY). Even with Nash, the other two “point” guards taken ahead of him were both all stars (AI and Starbury). The other noted exception to the “elite PGs are only drafted early” is Gilbert Arenas, who also had plenty of time on a bad team.
Of course, there are plenty of examples of serviceable guys who have come into good teams and eventually started for that team. Derek Fisher, BJ Armstrong, Charlie Ward, Darrell Armstrong, to name a few, which might be all we need out of a PG. But I still think if he stays in our situation, it doesn’t bode particularly well for Jerryd developing into this force of nature that people seem to think he’ll be.
didnt Jerryd
only work out for a couple of teams, which also may account for his fall in the draft? I remember reading that he didnt work out for many teams and when I do a google search I only find the Clips, Knicks, Wolves and Seattle.
It is definitely hard not agree that getting lots of reps would be helpful for Jerryd at this point. Hopefully he has a nice summer league at pg as he should a little more willingness to pass later in the season, but it looked a little forced.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
I can't remember the exact circumstances of his workouts
but it’s also not a good sign if he did only work out for those 4 teams. All of them had gaping holes at PG at the time (although the Clips pretty much already had Baron signed), and each of them went in a different direction.
He worked out for at least the Bulls, Heat, Grizzlies, etc. Everyone in the high lottery, as I recall.
proud hinrichsheeple
by Cablinasian on May 30, 2009 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Did Bayless even play last season?
Take away his garbage time and he had pretty good numbers in limited minutes for a rookie. I would like to see him actually play meaningful minutes in the NBA before I make a final judgment on his game.
The shooting stats for Bayless are incredibly deceptive. It’s important for shooters need to get into a rhythm and I’m not sure Bayless ever had a chance. Judging him by his mechanics I’m 99.9% certain he’s a better shooter than either Josh Smith or Sergio.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 30, 2009 1:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm sure he's a better jump shooter than Josh Smith...
Sergio Rodriguez is another matter entirely. In the last 35 games of the season in significant minutes Sergio shot 39% from 3 land. At least he’s done it before.
Bayless did play, 14 full games worth of action. And in garbage time or not, he was still a god awful jump shooter both from mid range and from 3. I’m not making a final judgement, but as far as next season goes (what we’re talking about), I’d put my money on Sergio before I would Jerryd as far as a jump shooting goes. Believe me, I’d love to be wrong, as it’d be a whole lot easier to already have a PG answer on this roster, but I’ve got to see it to believe it.
are you taking into account that when players come to the NBA they "retool" their shot?
I thought I read about that. If that’s the case its likely Bayless is working to get comfortable with his new mechanics. That said, lets not expect him to start hitting like Nash or even like Blake. He isn’t the messiah or something, he has strengths AND weaknesses. I think Bayless’ court vision and assists will improve some next season as he gets used to the flow and style of an NBA game but his real strengths lie in his ability to create, draw fouls, and his passion (which translates to pretty good defense). I don’t think shooting will ever be a strong point for him but I think Bayless will turn out to be passable in that department.
I see Bayless turning out like Damon stoudemire with a better motor and much better head on his shoulders.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
Plenty of guys retool their shots
and almost no one shoots as badly as Bayless did.
Is it a mitigating circumstance? yeah, but it doesn’t mean you get to completely hand wave the thing away. Bayless shot 9% eFG% worse on jumpshots this year than Sergio last year and no one was making excuses for Sergio, despite him shooting semi-decently as a rook.
I dont know if I agree
that Bayless creates. He certainly gets in the lane, but he has one threat and that is his finish. His passing while slashing needs work.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
Misleading evaluation
Seems to me that you and others who dog Bayless’ performance always do so by referencing his season long stats.
To my mind this is extremely misleading. Bayless really had three mini seasons. Before Blake’s injury, during Blake’s injury, and after Blake’s return.
Bayless was lousy in the first, pretty good for a rookie in the second (arguably better than Sergio), and restricted in the third (by restricted, I mean that he was mostly playing limited minutes in three guard line-ups where he was not the PG, or playing garbage minutes during blow-outs).
by upper left corner on Jun 1, 2009 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions
This is too simplistic
If they look at the game differently it’s probably because Nate likes point guards who can shoot and defend. He’s crazy like that.
Sergio is talking about the approach to the game itself. Sergio shoots and defends, although he might not do it as well as you like. In fact, EVERY player shoots and defends as part of their game. You can’t really use this is an aspect of the game because they all do it.
Sergio is discussing the role of a point guard. Nate and Sergio differ on that role and always will. All positions have different roles that different teams have them play. Some of it is based on the players that team has and other times it is based on the coach.
Saying that Nate and Sergio have different views on basketball because Sergio can’t defend or shoot it just a shot at Sergio, since obviously Bayless defends worse and shoots worse for now.
(Quietly raises hand)
You promote him to permanent backup and what happens when our starting point goes down for 8 weeks? Does anyone hear really believe that the Bayless we saw this year is anywhere close to starter material?
umm… I do.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 30, 2009 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Nate McMillan doesn't like point guards in the mold of both Sergio Rodriguez and Jerryd Bayless.
“I’m not entirely sold that McMillan will adjust his offense to appease a gunner like Jerryd Bayless. It’s one thing when McMillan coached a dribble-drive point guard like Antonio Daniels, for he was very careful with the ball — as his assist-to-turnover ratio in 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 were both greater than 4:1 — and had a sharp-shooting backcourt partner in Ray Allen to mask his mediocre long-range shooting.”
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/5/12/873660/be-community-podcast-episode-005#15677570
Remember, McMillan is the man who went with Randy Livingston in lieu of Earl Watson as the Seattle SuperSonics backup point guard in the 2002 NBA Playoffs. If McMillan loves anything in this world, it’s tall point guards who are careful, methodical floor generals.
Wait... what? Wasn't Gary Payton still there?
from sportsencylopedia:
2001/02: Heading into Nate McMillan’s first full season as coach the Supersonics were not expected to do much as they went back to their traditional colors of green and yellow. However, the Sonics led by the timely shots of Brent Barry and the tenacious defense of Gary Payton overcame a series of injuries to finish in 4th place with a 45-37 record. In the playoffs the Sonics would give the San Antonio Spurs all they could handle before falling in 5 games. Following the season the Sonics would begin to rebuild by trading Vin Baker to the Boston Celtics for Kenny Anderson.
How can you be picking on the backup point when a team not expected to do anything loses to David Robinson, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Bruce Bowen? Especially in Nate’s first season.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 30, 2009 12:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Nate McMillan liked Randy Livingston over Earl Watson as Gary Payton's backup at point ...
guard due to him being taller and more careful with the basketball. It didn’t help Watson at all that he was a rookie, but plucking Livingston from Sioux Falls Skyforce — which was then part of the CBA — late in the season sealed his fate. Watson, who was a restricted free-agent that off-season, later signed an offer sheet with the Memphis Grizzlies that wasn’t matched by the Seattle SuperSonics.
Oh, ok
I see what you’re driving at.
Yeah, no question that Nate is allergic to both turnovers and point guards shorter than himself.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 30, 2009 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Nate has dramatically improved as a coach.
I don’t think he became a good one until his final year with the sonics. I wouldn’t compare his decisions now to the ones he made when he first started coaching. He’s made improvements.
Not going to happen
that speculation will never be reality. Sergio is so gone! Dave make this a little bit more realistic. Sergio stunk it up in big time situations, Baylesss is ok at best. Typical Arizona guard. Shoot first and ask if he hit anything later.
Portland needs an upgrade at guard…… “NO” not Hinrick a real upgrade.
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
His stare became blank. It was apparent he was back in that place, on the Rose Garden's logo, picking up Aaron Brooks as the crowd nervously roared.
P.S.
Sergio is gone………………………….
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
His stare became blank. It was apparent he was back in that place, on the Rose Garden's logo, picking up Aaron Brooks as the crowd nervously roared.
Sergio is gone………………………….
…………………………. only if there’s a trade, and probably as a throw-in in a bigger trade. That means, if some bigger moves aren’t made, Sergio could still be here.
Sticking up for Travis Outlaw since 2008 and Steve Blake since last week..
Sergio
and his multiple agents would become a distraction. They quielty have put the writing on the wall. If things become delayed then I bet they really make a stink in the offseason.
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
His stare became blank. It was apparent he was back in that place, on the Rose Garden's logo, picking up Aaron Brooks as the crowd nervously roared.
I think that Blake will start ...
However, I think that Jerryd will take over as the backup. I think he’s better suited for Nate’s system than Sergio, and I think he’s going to work incredibly hard this Summer. I think that the Blazers are also going to use the 3 guard lineup quite a bit more this year, and probably also Brandon and Rudy together with Martell, which is kind of like a 2.5 guard lineup.
I think that Sergio will likely be traded, even if there’s not an upgrade at the Point. I think that Sergio’s agent will become a major distraction if Sergio falls out of the rotation, and with Martell coming back, there’s certainly not room for Sergio to even get spot minutes.
Phil
Where is the evidence that what agents are talking about negatively affects the locker room or the game?
Sergio’s agent will become a major distraction if Sergio falls out of the rotation
BEdgers say this kind of stuff all the time, but what is it based on? Just because such drama produces fodder for the blogs doesn’t mean it is detrimental where it counts as long as the players involved have a professional attitude, which all of these current Blazers do, including Sergio.
I know this is really tangential to the debate here, but I’m just wondering?
"Just kidding"
by CatMan2 on May 30, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Bayless will have to make some pretty giant improvements in order to replace Blake
I can’t imagine Sergio being back.
If this happens
you start training camp the same way the last season ended. If Rudy is a second unit guy, Sergio’s the better fit for the second unit. It’s really as simple as that.
Honest question...not being snarky about grammar
Does “in Portland” mean home games or the last 35 of the season? Does that include playoffs?
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
This doesn't seem right?
How did you decide on that split and why did you set the cutoff at an arbitrary number like 35, why not just go with 41 or post-allstar game?
When I went to basketball-reference.com and did his pre and post all-star splits the numbers don’t come close to matching up with what you posted.
Post all star game (28 games):
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/psplit.cgi?player=rodrise01&year=2009
MPG: 12 minutes
FG%: 41%
3Pt% 29%
PPG: 3.8
APG: 3.4
TOPG: 1.4
aside from minutes and 3P% that seems pretty much the same...
I just game logged it using ESPN and used the last 3 months since it makes the splits itself.
29% from three and 39% from three are pretty huge differences
I’m not accusing you of cherry picking your data, I just thought what you had selected seemed a bit like an outlier is all, compared to the games I remember him playing from an efficiency standpoint.
basketball reference is probably the site I use least
ESPN for the raw stuff probably out of habit and 82games for the fun stuff…
thank you
for clearing up that 3p%. At 39% Sergio can shoot all the 3’s he wants….29% not so much.
by hellsfrozenover on May 31, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Sergio, Bayless or both will improve a lot.
Both are young and seem willing to improve and succeed.
Sergio says he even doesn´t think about the Spanish National Team because he has a lot of things to work on this summer, he only thinks about his training.This is a contract year for Sergio, so he´ll do whatever to succeed in the Blazers if they keep him. And he´s a good guy. Last, but not least, Sergio could play this summer for the National Team and I wouldn´t be surprised if the earns the Spanish starting PG, defeating Ricky Rubio. Then confidence could grow on Sergio and the explosion could be heard in Portland.
I like Bayless too. I like his work ethics, his passion and his skills package.
I´m not worried at all.
that would be interesting for sure
and it’s not outside the lines at all. Sergio has much more experience, plus more playing time with Rudy. It will be interesting to see. Rubio’s draft stock could well hinge on who wins the starting role for the Spanish National Team. I haven’t seen Rubio do anything that youtube didn’t already show me Sergio doing when he was 18
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 30, 2009 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions
All of our point guards need to learn to love the pick and roll
Greg will make you look good.
by Sabonis4Ever on May 30, 2009 1:48 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
yep
the pick and pop must stop.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 30, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions
agreed. more roll, less pop
I thought it was pretty clear that Sergio is our best pick and roll player with Roy right behind him, but that’s just my opinion….
RUDY > MJ
Well, he would be if he could shoot.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 30, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Yup
Pick and roll takes two to tango. If your ball-handler comes off of the screen and doesn’t have a respectable finishing move or a jump shot then defenders sag off and take away the rolling big. Sergio either got blocked a ton (1 in 5 shots near the rim) or he would throw up a low percentage shot
If the Blazer Point rotation is unchanged next year
I don’t have a huge problem with that.
Far from 54 wins being the upper limit of this group, if next year the same level of production from Blake/Bayless/Sergio is provided, plus some semblance of improvement from any ONE of LaMarcus, Rudy, Batum, or Outlaw (yes.it can still happen.hes a baller.book it) then the Blazers are going deep into the postseason.
Think about what even ONE more win would have meant this season. No first round matchup with the Rockets, and the Inconvienient Yao Ming.
The L*ker’s series with the Nugs has exposed a lot of the holes the Blazers would have been blowing wide open. Instead, we got stuck with a group that had exploitable matchups on the proverbial ‘us’.
Forgive me if I take a risky aproach to this, but since none of the core players from this team have expiring contracts… why not let it play out for now?
Next year there are no excuses.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 30, 2009 12:03 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Rec
KP has something going on, so nobody saying, “stay put” is going to look like a clever prognosticator. Nonetheless your point is excellent: we can expect a better team next year with the same cast. Who knows how much better? I’m not afraid to find out and won’t be disappointed to see the same team.
quid Latine dictum sit, altum viditur
I can rec this too.
I’m fine with our current PG rotation.
All Portland needs is continuing experience together. Those fans who seem to think we need to make improvements may just be a little too much into playing GM. I don’t see the point in spending time trying to craft the “perfect” lineup. Perfect is the enemy of good enough. The Portland Trailblazers are already good enough to challenge for the title. Considering their age and experience, it seems logical that barring injury, they will continue to improve as both individuals and as a team. I’ll leave it to the real GM, Kevin Pritchard to tweak or change the team as he sees fit.
hakkaa päälle !
The key to the point guards
is more firepower at the 3, provided by Webster. Batum is a nice piece, and will be able to do things Webster cannot, but the point guard play of Blake, Bayless and Sergio is dictated by the potential of the other four positions on the court.
All our point guards have to do is defend the point, exploit the defense and make sure that players in a position to score off the ball get the ball. Blake exploits defenses by spotting up for the three and very occasionally penetrating the defense. Bayless will force the ball down your throat, and Sergio is arguably better than either at getting teammates the ball in a position to score.
Of the three talents currently on the roster, Blake’s is the most useful for offensive efficiency, while Sergio’s is allegedly better for a faster pace. However, when you have weaknesses as glaring as Blake’s (gets wupped by the Brooks, and Parkers, and CP3s) and Sergio’s (force him to shoot), then you need the Bayless type to defend and bust up the defense.
The problem with Bayless is that he is the type that needs to be a seasoned 22 rather than an exposed 19 or 20. Outside of that, only he has the knack of busting designed defenses with that one thing you can’t teach – pure physical talent combined with relentless drive.
Hence the Webster connection. Webster can take the role that Batum was unable to fill – he can be the spot up 3-point shooter on the flank that frees up the Bayless/Roy frontal attack (complimented, of course, by the Oden/Aldridge post up off the ball).
If the Blazers accomplish that one element – Bayless or Roy breaking down defenses and either feeding the roll or dishing to the open 3, the Blazers will continue exceptional offensive efficiency. I also think Bayless offers the best opportunity for a consistent transition offense.
Webster would also provide more than just 3pt shooting...
He used to run the plays they ran for Rudy last year, so you get more options to change up your offense with the starting unit on the floor. Instead of LaMarcus 5 times straight at the start of the game, you can mix in some motion with Webster running off of screens. Adding Webster and improvement from Greg will make coming back with the same PGs not such a bad thing.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Give bayless more minutes
a lot more. We don’t have a good solution at point right now and bayless has high potential. If it’s possible he’s the point we need lets give him the minutes necessary to find that out, and then either go forward with him or look elsewhere. I would like the point guard situation changed, but if it isn’t lets make sure the solution wasn’t at the end of our bench
We don't need a new PG
What Portland may need is a back-up center for JP. Big men are always injury prone. Just think of Shaq, David Robinson, Yao Ming, etc. Greg Oden may be on that list but we don’t know yet so getting a big man with six fouls to give may be our best option. If not our best option then just a good one at least.
And since Frye is somewhat likely to be gone
Which is not a bad thing IMHO, great person, not good enough a player…
Proud member of Duck nation!
greg LMA and joel can play center. I don't think you look for another one.
we also have (and if we can i bet will bring over) joel freeland who could passably help as well. Greg is the biggest wildcard in his fouling but that has to improve since he’s a sophomore if for no other reason..also you have to look at WHO he fouled. A lot of those ‘stupid’ fouls on greg were against guards who beat their man. If Bayless or another defensive PG were in the game, thats one less hole Greg commits to plugging and more mins for the big dude.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
Sergio won't be back...
And I’ll be glad for it, he has topped out, Bayless is nowhere near doing so…
Proud member of Duck nation!
Topped out?
He improved as much as any player from last year to this year. Point guards take the longest to develop, and he is actually among the top point guards in the league his age or younger.
List of PG’s with higher PER’s that are younger than Sergio
Derrick Rose
Russell Westbrook
D.J. Augustin
Mike Conley Jr
end of list
if we go by just the statistical approach you miss out a lot
its always VERY suspect when you apply a lot of conditions. are you implying that there are only 4 PGs that you would like over Sergio? for example, you wouldn’t take mario chalmers over sergio? i could probably rattle off 15 backups i’d take over sergio at the point let alone 30 starters (and 3 players on this team)
I’m always wary of stats that apply conditions like the ones ESPN loves. It just always sounds like “he’s the only player in the last 15 years to jump off his left foot scoring a hook shot from 13.5 feet or greater while celebrating a birthday on friday the 13th”.
Funny that medicine isn’t much different. everything is the most common disease in the right context..
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
PER is probably the most common measurement of success for NBA players individually
I was just finding if there were any point guards as young as Sergio having as much success this early. I found only 4 guys that were younger and better (PER) than Sergio in the whole NBA. That has to count for something. People that call him terrible, or even bad are just flat missing the boat. He’s a young point guard who is doing just fine for himself. If we didn’t have the assets to make things happen this offseason I’d be perfectly content with him as our backup point guard, and perhaps our backup point guard of the future. The fact however is that we do have those assets, and it’s one of the first places people will naturally start to look for improvement. Despite the fact we got above average production from him. Last year out of the 64 point guards that qualified Sergio was 39th. Not only is that a solid backup point guard, but it qualifies as a top 10 backup point guard. Throw on that the fact he did it at only 22 years of age and there is a lot to be impressed, and quite frankly excited about.
Keep in mind, PER doesn't measure staying in front of your man.
Sticking up for Travis Outlaw since 2008 and Steve Blake since last week..
I've been watching this team for a while now
I think that’s how Nate designs the defense. Every player at least one player must completely whiff trying to stay in front.
Honestly, he did as well as anyone on the team. I vividly remember a seeing a different Sergio defensively at the start of this year, getting up on his man at the half court line, playing tighter D. People wanting Bayless to play looked for faults, and defense is really easy to say, and always have someone agree with you. Blake and Bayless were no better.
Fortunately, we do have "net" PER
courtesy of 82games.com
Our two weakest positions, in terms of net PER (what our players averaged vs. what other teams averaged against us) were:
Point Guard (-0.2 PER) for a 16th rank
Center (-0.7 PER) for a 16th rank
We were exceptionally strong at ….. drumroll …. SG and PF, and rather excellent at SF (ranked 7th in the league with a net PER of +2.6). Defense matters, apparently. I’m of a mind that good offense at one position can make another position even more effective, but defense can still win games.
by blacknoiseNW on May 30, 2009 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions
We were strong at SF
because Roy played 25% of his minutes at that position.
In that 25% he averaged a PER of 27.1 for himself while giving up a PER of 8.8. That alone is why the SF is even decent.
Batum was a negative 1.6 in his 35% of the SF minutes. Outlaw was a negative 3.1 in his 37% of the minutes there.
SF is only excellent if you account for Roy’s minutes. If you don’t count Roy’s minutes there its our worst position. Not to worry though… Roy ought to continue getting plenty of minutes there.
27.1 to 8.8...
I knew Roy did well while at the SF, but that is insane. Although, I bet Roy didn’t play much SF against the teams that had tougher matchups for him. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a smart move by Nate to do this, but I suspect we wouldn’t see these numbers if Roy was playing SF with all of his minutes.
I agree. Not playing Bayless over Sergio was such a bad move. Even if Bayless stunk it up all year, we'd know what he
has to improve on, or have a better idea. Now when he makes mistakes next year, we can blame Nate for delaying Bayless’s growth as a point guard.
by BRoyInThe4th on May 30, 2009 2:27 AM PDT up reply actions
We need to trade Sergio for a pick or just get rid of him. I know he could break out on some other team
and average like 9 assists a game, but let him do that on some team in the east. What ever we do with our extra players that don’t fit, ship them to the eastern conference.
Alls I know is that Bayless dominates
way more in NBA 2K9 than serg or blake so we gotta play him.
by tevisthe4th on May 30, 2009 4:09 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Rooming in
The players would have to work out hard to improve not just their individual game but also their understanding how each other plays and needs the ball. At least building tandems or small training groups.
Group Oden (Indiana/Ohio, later splits to LA and Vegas): Bayless – Oden. Blake might join later as soon as his shoulder has healed, or he goes to the Roy group. Joel does his thing, maybe joins them briefly. Bayless moves to the Vegas summer league (tons of teams there this year, about a dozen), dominates the league not just in points but also in assists. Changes in rotation with Petteri, while in the usually taking the PG spot (PK while not playing a lot also was used as a SG this year in Italy). Oden then joins the LA big guys group in August as planned to work with other centers (Okafor, UCLA bigs), since he also has a lot of individual work to do.
Group Rudy (Spain): Sergio – Rudy – Ricky. Sergio works on his shot, and then works as much as he can with Rudy and other point guards on the Spanish national team. They come over at the end of September when the Eurobasket is over.
Group Roy (Washington mostly): Roy – Outlaw. Travis would improve a ton when he would work along Roy’s training regimen for a while. Webster works with Roy as soon as his rehab is over and he is allowed to work in contact drills again.
Group LaMarcus (Texas, other): Begins his workouts in the region playing from time to timewith local guys like Durant, Ford, Augustin (this is really planned). Further improves his speed (first step), and game facing the basket (e.g. ball handling). Maybe Frye or Shav could join him to keep fit. Makes a trip to Alabama while Outlaw is still there. Then catches up to work a bit with Blake and Bayless. Maybe also with Oden in LA.
Shav works out blocking Asher Roth and P Diddy. Or whatever his training regimen is. Same with Frye and Raef. Ruffin had surgery last I heard, even further minimizing any chance of returning.
P.S.: Yeah, as stated by others above I would be very surprised if we go into training camp with the same three guys, and in addition KP hasn’t used a single one of his picks on a point guard, not even Collison or Beaubois.
Blake as the starter, Bayless as the backup
If Sergio is still here at the start of the season, it’s only because KP couldn’t swing a deal. He doesn’t want to be here, and Nate doesn’t want him. Nate doesn’t have the best record with young point guards, but for the benefit of the team, I think Bayless needs an extended chance to show what he can do. A lot of this is on Jerryd – he needs to find his shot, and focus on getting his team involved in the flow of the offense. I have no doubt he’s working on those things all summer, and we will see results.
I believe in Greg Oden. To all the haters - get down with the program or stay off the wagon for all time. #52
1000 words on the subject.
I look forward to a rebuttal… ;)
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
by faith on May 30, 2009 9:18 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Ok, you asked for it (apologies to Ben)
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 30, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
We need a less clumsy PG who doesn't run into cameras
I mean, come on, it was right in front of him.
What if?
Then I think I’ll cry and Nate probably will too.
I’m sitting here trying to think of how you make this work from a development and chemistry standpoint and it looks to have disaster written all over it — Sergio has already given a ‘play me or trade me’ ultimatum (for all intents and purposes), Bayless is too hungry to be happy with garbage time and spot minutes, Blake is too “average” to be a long term starter and he’ll be 30 next year.
I guess the only thing you can do is bench one of Bayless or Sergio and hope you can work out trade at some point during the year, even if that’s just to mitigate disruptions.
(for those thinking that there wouldn’t be disruptions I think you’re operating on hope and not reason).
the disruptions that were....
were hucked out of the building with the door being locked behind them.
they keep their mouth shut and throw chairs and stuff… but they don’t go out of there way to piss and moan.
at least that’s what I’ve seen for the last year, sergios SPANISH agent doing what he did, was ….minor.
darius and Z bo, were major, and delt with.
I think. :)
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
A possible line of reasoning
There will always be disruptions with any team. But this group of guys has shown itself to be professional enough to go out and play and leave the disruptions behind. Pretty amazing for this young of a group. Reason would indicate that it would continue if there are no new elements added to the mix. I am not saying that it couldn’t come to a head, but the past year seems to indicate they handle their disruptions pretty well as a team.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
true
but sometimes the worst thing for someone like Jerryd are things not changing. If the same rotation is put into play next year, I don’t have a doubt there will be a little bit of a public disruption from an angry player or two.
Remember, these guys all have egos, some a lot bigger than others, even on the Portland Nice Blazers. You just don’t make it to the NBA without an ego. Winning is a great salve, but not the cure.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 30, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions
True
But my response was to nik saying someone would be operating on hope and not reason if they thought there would not be disruptions if things stay the same. My response was that this team’s history might actually show that they have dealt with these things in the past without it derailing the team…why is hope the only explanation for drawing that conclusion from that evidence?
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
We already saw minor rumblings this season
Sergio’s agent squawking, Sergio giving interviews to Spanish media a few weeks ago saying he wants a change, hints of Jerryd not being satisfied with his situation, Sergio entering a contract year, Bayless entering a critical sophomore season … I don’t care how good of guys they are or how private (or public) they are with their unhappiness, the fact is that you are begging for trouble if you don’t do something with one or the other; standing pat and having the same situation next year just feels like a terrible, terrible risk of damaging team chemistry and good vibes in the locker room … that doesn’t mean it will happen, but why risk it when either are pretty movable (even if that’s just as a throw in for a larger trade).
by nikolokolus on May 30, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I am not saying that everyone is happy and everything is hunky dory...
I just think the conflict part of having guys battling for PT gets blown out of proportion sometimes, especially in the off season. Von Wafer was here and obviously felt he deserved more of a shot than he was given. Did it disrupt the team at the time? Sergio hasn’t ever been happy. Has it kept the team from improving and moving forward? JJ struggled with his role at times and took a lot of heat from fans for being frustrated at times, but I don’t think it cost the team any wins. Travis and Martell should hate each other by now with all the battling they have done for playing time over the years. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of enmity there. What’s the worst that could happen when egos get bruised?
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Well stated argument
I support your conclusion as well.
"What's so interesting is that this team took on a dynamic that was very special. I don't think we as a group, in terms of management, coaches and players, realize what we did as a young team. We broke all the metrics. We broke all the molds. Our challenge is can we continue to do that. As young of a team with 54 wins, no issues off the court, phenomenal chemistry." - Kevin Pritchard
Not the worst "what if" in the world
Sergio has a lot of motivation for next year. He will be playing for a contract and not only will he have to show his basketball ability, he will have to put a good front about his situation with playing time and how he is used. Both of those factors work in favor of the Blazers.
When I think of Bayless I see him in a gym somewhere putting up shot after shot for the entire summer. He isn’t thinking about taking over the back up spot from Sergio. He is gunning for Blake and the starter’s role. He has a lot to prove and doesn’t seem like the kind of person that will allow last season be how people remember him. I can’t base a whole lot about where he will be next season on this image but I imagine he will do everything in his power to be far better next year.
Blake is good enough to get us deeper in the playoffs. This young team is still in a place where its key players are improving. Oden will be better. LMA got a taste of what he can do towards the end of last season and will want to show he can do that all year. Roy is far from tapped out. I expect to see him put more focus on the defensive end as the rest of the team gets better on offense. Batum and Rudy will be ready from the opening tip off and adding Webster will give another wrinkle to the team’s already efficient offense.
I don’t know that the team would be constructed to make a championship run, but I do think they would be constructed to win 55-60 games and take another shot at getting past the first round. Is that good enough for now?
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
random thought....
I’d like to see roy go back to NOT complaining to the refs…. I had flashes of Zbo in some of his complaints….
I hope it doesn’t continue.
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
That was random...
That is a tough one…I don’t want him to be as bad as Zbo, but at times it seems like someone needs to let the refs know what is going on out there. I don’t like it when players do it, but it seems to work for some teams and some guys. The “not getting back on D” is what is frustrating.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Yeah, but I remember a couple of plays clearly when Roy was complaining
And then he ran upcourt just in time to pick off a pass.
Roy’s ref chatter is NOTHING compared to Zach’s.
It’s all a part of the game, and I would be willing to bet that when it works, Roy’s complaining is worth the 2 or 3 points he gives up to make his point to the ref.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 30, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Bayless taking shot after shot
Bayless needs to do this against good competition. Working on a shot in an empty gym and being able to shoot in game are NOT the same thing.
And I don’t want to see the “you need minutes to get in rhythm during the game” argument either. Rudy plays minutes and gets in a rhythm and I’ve never seen him hit even 5 three pointers in a row, something he does easily when shooting alone.
Hopefully Bayless works on his “in game” shot, not just shooting around like during warmups.
I'd like to see Jerryd get 16 minutes a game
at the backup point guard spot next season — even if it costs us some games.
I know we’re all thinking that if we had 54 wins and the #4 seed this season we should have 60 wins and a top-two seed next season, but I’m not married to that idea. I’ll be happy if we top 50 wins and make the playoffs if Jerryd gets consistent backup minutes and manages to get over the hump in his adjustment to the NBA. If that happens, we’ll be stronger entering the 2010 playoffs than we were this year, even if we enter as a lower seed with fewer wins.
The other likely alternative is a big shakeup at point guard involving trades of Steve and/or Jerryd, such as a trade of Steve for Hinrich and/or Jerryd for a veteran backup.
If Jerryd gets a solid 16 minutes a night, I don't think it will cost the Blazers anything.
Once a player gets that amount of time, he can actually adjust to the rythm of the game. Jerryd’s a good enough player in his own right, and with that amount of time, his full arsenal will be on display.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 30, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Number of wins does become less important
I think the type of wins will become more important next season. They can’t go into the playoffs having only won 2 road games to playoff teams in the West. If that means they lose a few more games to bad teams…so be it. Obviously you want to win them all, but I would take a loss here and there to bad teams if it meant they were going into tough environments and winning at least as much as they are losing.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
As to the question....
It wouldn’t be the end of the world to wait for the right player. It would also let us integrate the player we really need. That would be a wide-body or two when we want to play a small lineup. You know all the names. We can get the PG backup this year before or at the trade deadline, when everyone is good and tired of their old or failing relationships or a team is just broke (financially). That includes Sergio I suppose. He’ll just have to wait it out like a pro.
While it's theoretically possible the point guard rotation remains static
it would be very bad for either Sergio or Jerryd, and I very much doubt we will see this.
What would happen? Well, I think Nate would have to decide to sit one of the two more or less permanently while playing the other one ~15 minutes or so per game. The only other approach that would be reasonable would be to use one or the other situationally. However, I don’t think Nate is interested in operating that way.
So, if Sergio is the odd man out, he’s going to be very unhappy, just hoping and praying for an end to the situation. But next year, I don’t think Jerryd is going to be content to collect splinters on his butt either. He has doubtless looked around the NBA and seen many of the guards in his draft cohort prospering, and he probably feels he is as talented as any of them, and he may well be. I think it was hard for him to accept the limited role he had last year, but he was able to do so because he was a rookie. Now, he’s going to want a piece of the action.
Unless Steve is hurt and misses a lot of games next season, there is just no way to keep both of those guys happy. I agree that would be a “worst-case” scenario.
"Just kidding"
I think if the Blazers return with the same pg corp as they had this year
it’d be on par with the pg corps of the currently active Lakers and Magic pg corps – which last I checked were either in the finals or one win away.
Lakers, Yes
Magic, no way. The Magic are using a second stringer who is doing a pretty good job during the playoffs. Next year they’ll have Nelson back and in theory should be even better.
I'm reminded of the old football saying ...
“If you have two quarterbacks (three in our case) you have none”
The only reason I think it applies is because point guard shares more than a few characteristics with their football counterpart: they initiate the offense, they are often counted on to be leaders, and having a clear cut starter with a clear cut backup makes it easier for the whole team to get into a rhythm.
I feel like we’re the Minnesota Vikings or Chicago Bears (until the Bears got Cutler) of the NBA; nothing but journeymen or unproven youth and a never ending search for that elite starter to take you to the next level.
U of O keeps 5 quaterbacks on the roster
They used all 5 bcause of injuries. College football teams do this routinely. Pro teams have 3 and sometimes 4 on the depth chart. The analogy may not work exactly in the way you suggest but you make a good point. Last year’s experimentation with the two backups didn’t help anyone, did it. I expect that Nate will use the PG rotation the best way possible.
It's great to have depth at point guard/QB. But ...
it’s another matter entirely when there’s no real clear separation in talent/role between 1-3. I’m no U of O guy (Go Beavs!) but I seem to recall that eventually Massoli emerged as the clear starter and now Roper has decided to transfer to another school. The trouble with pro sports is there’s no transferring when you’re under contract, you either demand a trade or you get waived, or you rot on the bench.
I’m not saying any point guard in particular should be named the starter out of the three, but I do think we need to remember that guys like Jerryd and Sergio are playing on rookie scale contracts and are basically playing at artificially supressed market prices in the hopes that they’ll secure their next contract or pay raise; if you don’t get on the court you end up out of the league or hanging around for cut rate contracts.
Brandon is our quarterback
his partner in the backcourt needs to be able to bring the ball up, follow Nate’s instructions, defend the opposing PG and shoot well when open, Brandon will keep order and keep the team on track. And when we really need a score – Brandon, Brandon, Brandon.
"What's so interesting is that this team took on a dynamic that was very special. I don't think we as a group, in terms of management, coaches and players, realize what we did as a young team. We broke all the metrics. We broke all the molds. Our challenge is can we continue to do that. As young of a team with 54 wins, no issues off the court, phenomenal chemistry." - Kevin Pritchard
I don't see how those three get worse
What would the rotation look like? Probably not all that different from 2008-2009. Maybe a few more minutes from Sergio and Bayless and few less from Blake. I would expect to see Bayless improve the most, though if he were stuck in limited minutes it might not be that large of an improvement. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Sergio’s three-point shooting improve another notch.
For the team as a whole. Oden improves. Batum improves. Rudy improves. Webster is back. Add a new back-up PF to replace Frye. To me that equal 60 wins with no changes to the PG rotation and no improvement from Roy or Aldridge. The worst-case scenario doesn’t sound too bad, though Bayless head might explode sitting on the bench for another season.
Change the starting PG to B Roy
Steve Blake is going to be a year older, not a year better. He is a serviceable PG, and a fabulous back up PG. It’s not as if the ball doesn’t already go through B Roy more often than not any how. I’d bring Rudy in as a Starter at the 2, and use Blake and Bayless as the primary reserves. Sergio is the odd man out. This assumes Bayless can develop a stop and pop jumper, as well as a more consistent 3pt shot.
Fire Mark Mason. He's a dork, and he projects that we are ALL dorks
Fire Brian Wheeler. Homers suck.
Trade Trout, or sign someone reliable to soak up his minutes.
....Now I'm done
Blake won't get better?
Think back to fall 2008 — Blake had worked hard all summer and came back stronger, quicker and steadier than before. He had his best year last year.
Obviously he will have to overcome this injury, but the guy has a work ethic, experience, and he’s got to be able to see the competition in his rear-view mirror. I say he’s going to work Baylessively hard to come back better next season.
Sticking up for Travis Outlaw since 2008 and Steve Blake since last week..
What I'm saying is....
Blakey isn’t going to turn into a penetrating, stop and pop driving, nails from 3pt PG anytime soon. He is what he is, and I like him for our team a lot. I think he’s going to be a much better 2nd pg than a starting pg. I am not a fan of making a change in personnel just to make a change (read that to mean Andre Miller is not an upgrade, nor is Kirk Henrich). I think on this team, we need a 3pt specialist at the 1 who plays lock down d and can crash the boards. As I eluded to, the offense already flows through B Roy, so he is already our PG in some sense.
Fire Mark Mason. He's a dork, and he projects that we are ALL dorks
Fire Brian Wheeler. Homers suck.
Trade Trout, or sign someone reliable to soak up his minutes.
....Now I'm done
I think Bayless
will come into camp with a whole new perspective on what it is going to take to play at this level. We all know he will work his tail off this summer. Sergio best/worst case scenario are all the same he cannot continue to play for the blazers. I know we are supposed to be objective with the players we have but he is not coming back to Portland.
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
His stare became blank. It was apparent he was back in that place, on the Rose Garden's logo, picking up Aaron Brooks as the crowd nervously roared.
agreed
I also think Bayless is like 20 or 21. He only played a year of college basketball. Hes a long term investment who gets to have Blake and Nate tutor him on being a pg. It will be a learning process with some painful lumps but I think Jerryd will ultimately be the point guard for this team.
I think back to Rondo when he came into the league. I know Jerryd doesnt have all his physical tools but their games are very similar, can’t shoot, drive to the rim, high turnover guys. Jerryd just needs to dedicate himself to defense, keeping low turnovers, and developing some jump shooting and he’ll be great.
Rondo has long arms
When you play pickup ball, how many times are you an inch or two away from being able to tip a pass, steal a ball, etc.
Arm length is as important as height in the NBA.
No change, no problem
I am surprised that nobody has mentioned Steve’s surgery and how it could be a factor in no moves being made this summer. Currently, Blake and Sergio are fighting for minutes and with Blake’s recovery they would have the time they both need. With a starting line up of Roy, LA and Oden we would get to see Sergio’s ability to distribute and push the tempo. Bayless would get more time to play and develop, while Blake takes on the vet role of leadership and damage control if things aren’t working out.
Sergio and Bayless
need to both be positive. The reason Sergio got the minutes this year is because he knew the offense better. If they are both still here, let them battle it out in practice more. Hopefully they both want the minutes. Who ever shows that they deserve to play the most should get it. One of them will need to step it up for the team because we need a 2nd reliable PG. If it’s Sergio, great. It it’s Bayless, great.
Travis Outlaw fan from the beginning.
Where is the Sergio Man-Love?
I’m coming late to the party… sorry.
But it seems like all the Enlightened Ones of Blazers Edge have written Sergio off as no good.
I’m sitting in a hotel bar trying to avoid work and I’m not looking up a bunch of fancy statistics. But I watched every minute of every single game this year. What I saw is massive Sergio improvement. I loved what I saw out of Sergio in the latter part of the season. I loved that he developed a floating jump shot off of the penetration. I loved what he did in Game 5 of the playoffs.
I agree with someone above who said that PGs have to marinate way more than other players. I can think of a lot worse things in the world than working on Sergio over the years as a starting guard for the Blazers. (I seem to recall that Chauncey was considered a total bust until he ended up in Detroit later in his career, just as one example.)
Is there no one around here willing to defend Sergio? I’m not villifying Bayless—I actually like Bayless quite a bit and fall into the camp of “We Must Choose A Single Point Guard.” I also wouldn’t mind seeing some trades in general. But with Bayless having the better trade value, I’m inclined to see him traded and keep Sergio as the PG of the future that no one is expecting. At least, I think this is something worth considering.
What’s going on? Am I a total outlier here? Does no one else see a credible defense of Sergio?
Buck Williams for the hall of fame
He did improve
He went from flashy and wild in his rookie year and didn’t get a lot of court time as that year wore on to his second year whish was a disaster on par with the Titanic, the Clippers last 40 years of existence, and New Coke all rolled into one, his third season was better, but he only elevated his game to below average or mediocre at best.
Cons:
- still turns the ball over way too much
- still doesn’t shoot a great percentage
- still has trouble finishing in the lane (got blocked on 20% of his inside attempts)
- overdribbles in the half-court
- really struggled to coexist with Brandon on the court, which limits how much you can play him
Positives:
- modest improvements to the form on his jumper
- he did play better defense (went from “can’t guard a chair” to “slightly below average”)
- Played pretty effective minutes at times in the season, and when Blake was out held his own.
Bottom line:
Nate and he just don’t see eye to eye, he wants a change of scenery (based on interviews he’s given since the end of the season) and he’s unlikely to ever be a good or great fit here as long as Brandon and Nate are running the good ship Blazer.
by nikolokolus on May 30, 2009 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions
more support for the idea that Sergio doesn't play nice with Brandon:
oops
continuing that thought, courtesy of 82games.com:
Worst 5 man unit in terms of +/- (of the top 20 in minutes played):
Rodriguez-Fernandez-Roy-Outlaw-Przybilla @ -33 (and in only 72 min played together). However, Sergio and Roy were together for a positive rotation: Rodriguez-Fernandez-Roy-Outlaw-Oden @ +41 (84 min – Oden gets some credit?)
Bayless, while only a member of two of the top 20 5-man rotations, had no negative +/- results.
Interestingly, Fernandez was a member of each of the negative +/- rotations ranked in the top 20 for min played. So was Outlaw.
by blacknoiseNW on May 30, 2009 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Not writing
Sergio off. Sergio made it clear he needs a change, I do not see him ever being the starting pg on this team. Sergio needs to go to a team with a different style of play then what Portland offers. Nate wants his point guards to be efficiant,defensive minded distributors. Sergio is a gambler/spotty shooting point guard that is playing a system I think hampers his talent. He had his shot last season and in my opinion Blew it.
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
His stare became blank. It was apparent he was back in that place, on the Rose Garden's logo, picking up Aaron Brooks as the crowd nervously roared.
I don't disagree at all
Sergio has improved quit a lot. I’m sure he will work on his game this summer and come back with an improved jump shot and better foot work. I like the way the guy works and the effort he puts into his game. I do think that he is not a good fit on this team though. If he gets moved to a team with a more free flowing offense next year, I think we will be enjoying many Sergio highlights on ESPN and youtube.
PS
I think Sergio should be traded if at all possible. He has improved on everything he has been asked to. He has the skills and determination to be a good NBA point guard. He has given enough to this team that I believe he deserves to be traded to a team that better suits his skills. I hope this off season works well for both parties.
I honestly don't see the appeal of Hinrich coming to replace Blake...
In my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, I think that he’s an overpaid, slightly taller, less deadly shooter than Blake is. His D isn’t that much better and he can’t penetrate any better either.
I think if somehow at the end of the offseason if Blake, Sergio and Rex are still all on the roster, it wouldn’t be the end of the world. Do I think it’s likely? No, but IF it happened I’d expect competition between Sergio and Rex for the backup spot to make them both better. Iron sharpens iron, and all that…
Blazers win!
Kobe Bryant demanded a trade
He has since changed his mind.
Sergio hasn’t demanded a trade, but would certainly welcome one. I expect if the team is unable to move him (and they’d like to), he will suck it up and play as well as he can for his next contract.
Since I don’t believe Bayless is a point guard, that will spell another frustrating year for him playing third string behind Rodriguez and Blake, or more likely, getting spot minutes at the SG spot if there’s a injury to a player ahead of him on the rotation. If he can get his shot straightened out this summer, he could be a Ben Gordon type off the bench, combining the ability to penetrate and hit the jumper.
Blake would start again, obviously. With a healthy Webster and another summer of working on skills improvement particularly for Oden but for all the young guys, the Blazers should be ready to win 60 games next year.
That said, teams that stand pat are in a race where they are maintaining pace while others are sprinting ahead. Some of the teams we’re competing with in the regular season will get better, and if the Blazers don’t, it could end up hurting them.
I'm not sure how much yardage you're gonna gain with the Kobe::Sergio analogy.
Kobe could demand the Lakers change their team colors, that Phil Jackson shave his head, and that the Laker Girls hula hoop for five minutes every halftime and he would have leverage to have a good chance of making those things happen…
Sergio is an almost-out-of-the-league backup PG that has more or less peed in the well…
I seriously doubt he will be back, whether he “changes his mind” (and WHY would he change his mind about Nate at this point?) or not…
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
If Portland can't upgrade Blake or unload Rodriguez,
they’ll be just fine. The team is built around Roy and Aldrige and soon Oden will contribute on a nightly basis. When Roy is in the game, the PG needs to be a good spot up shooter when Roy gets double-teamed. Blake has proven he can hit outside shots. When Roy is out, the offense becomes more dynamic than get-Roy-the-ball and watch so the PG needs to be able to distribute. I think Rodriguez can handle that role. Where does that leave Bayless? I’m not sure, but he may get used in garbage time or situationally. I don’t really have a good sense for his game yet. Can he hit the outside shot? It looked pretty ugly from what I saw, but he can work on that this summer. Can he distribute the ball effectively? When he got in the game last year, he looked mostly to drive so he’ll need to work on that in summer league.
I would like Nate to “fix” the rotation a bit so that playing time is a bit more predictable. Sometimes Sergio would get pulled after playing well just because Nate thought he was in there long enough.
Let’s say there are 48 minutes available at the PG spot. I’d like to see Blake play no more than 30 to stay healthy. I would give Sergio 15 minutes and Bayless the remaining 3.
This scheme won’t help evaluate if Bayless is the answer, but I think there is still time yet. I’d like to find out if Sergio is worth keeping. If he puts in a lot of work this summer and has a good attitude then I think Portland should reward him with some PT.
Summer homework:
Blake – do whatever it takes to get in shape enough to stay healthy for the whole season. Maybe do some conditioning drills to improve lateral quickness.
Rodriguez – shoot outside shots until his arm falls off and then practice finishing at the rim.
Bayless – shoot outside shots until his arm falls off and then work on the drive-and-dish.
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