So There's an Upper Limit

by Philski on May 29, 2009 8:31 PM PDT Comment 78 comments

[Edit by Dave: As you see clearly, this has been promoted to the main page. It is a continuation of Philski's excellent post entitled "What's the 'Point'" which you can read by clicking here.]

Sorry that I didn't realize that the previous post would be truncated. For any of those interested, here's the rest ...

With all of that background in mind, here’s the sorted list of ideal Blazer Point Guards from top to bottom:

Player	Rating	PER / $	Weakness
Chris Paul	77	4.4	Mediocre 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts
Steve Nash	76	1.1	Age
Deron Williams	73	2.8	Low 3Pt %

Jose Calderon	66	1.7	Weak Defender
Chauncey Billups	61	1.1	Mediocre FG % and Asst
Brandon Roy	61	5.2	Mediocre 3Pt %, 3Pt Attempts and Asst
Tony Parker	61	1.4	Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts

Mo Williams	56	1.4	Low Asst, Mediocre Asst/TO
Devin Harris	56	1.9	Low 3Pt %, Mediocre 3Pt Attempts
Rajon Rondo	56	9.6	Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts
Leandro Barbosa	54	2.1	Weak Defender, Low Asst, Mediocre 3Pt % and Asst/TO
Jason Kidd	53	0.5	Low FTA, Mediocre FG % and Pts, Age
Andre Miller	52	1.2	Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts
Mike Bibby	51	0.7	Mediocre Asst

D.J. Augustin	48	4.5	Low Asst, Mediocre PER
Steve Blake	46	2.3	Low FTA, Mediocre FG %, Asst and PER
Derrick Rose	45	2.2	Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts, Mediocre Asst
Ramon Sessions	45	16.3	Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts, Mediocre Asst
Derek Fisher	42	1.7	Low Asst and PER, Mediocre FG % and Pts
Rudy Fernandez	41	9.5	Low Asst, Mediocre FG %, Asst/TO, Pts and PER
Mike Conley	40	2.6	Low Asst, Mediocre Pts and PER

Kirk Hinrich	37	0.9	Low Asst and PER, Mediocre Pts
Jarrett Jack	35	4.4	Low Asst and PER, Mediocre 3Pt % and Asst/TO
Raymond Felton	35	2.2	Low 3Pt % and PER, Mediocre FG % and 3Pt Attempts
Aaron Brooks	33	8.3	Low Asst and PER, Mediocre FG %, 3Pt % and Asst/TO
Rodney Stuckey	33	5.9	Low 3Pt %, 3Pt Attempts and Asst, Mediocre PER
Russell Westbrook	32	2.9	Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts, Mediocre Asst, Asst/TO and PER
Jose Juan Barea	30	6.0	Low Asst, Pts and PER, Mediocre 3Pt %

Sergio Rodriguez	25	9.5	Yikes !
Jerryd Bayless	20	2.8	Yikes !

I included another stat which is important when comparing players of similar capability. PER / $ takes the players normalized PER (their PER divided by 15, which is Hollinger’s average PER every year) and divides it by their “normalized” salary (their salary divided by $10M – a somewhat arbitrary number).

The easiest way to run an organization into the ground is to overpay role players. Mike Bibby had a good year for the Hawks, and is probably as similar to Steve Blake in his role with the team as Joe Johnson is similar to Brandon Roy. The difference is that Mike Bibby’s salary is nearly $15M, while Steve’s is just over $4M. The Hawks are paying over three times the price for a similar amount of production. Kirk Hinrich is another player who is overpaid, at $10M, for his level of production. Players in their Rookie contract, particularly those taken later, will obviously have the highest PER / $, so once you get beyond a certain level, the number doesn’t really matter. A number below 1.0 is low, between 1.1 and 1.9 is average, between 2.0 and 2.9 is good and anything beyond 3.0 is very good.

So what’s it all mean ?

If Steve Nash has anything left in the tank, and it certainly appears that he does, he would be an excellent pickup, but it would be somewhat of a risk, depending upon whom the Blazers had to give up.

Steve Blake is a pretty darn good fit for the Blazers. It’s also easy to see why it’s so effective when the Blazers go to a three guard set with Rudy, Steve and Brandon.

Mo Williams would have been an excellent veteran to pick up last year, and D.J. Augustin would have been a very good draft pick.

What’s worse about the Nuggets getting Chancey Billups is that they didn’t have to do anything negative to their team in order to do so. All they had to do was give up their most dysfunctional player … Sigh … Mr Big Shot would be a pretty incredible fit in the backcourt for the Blazers, but then what team wouldn’t be better with Billups running things.

Any of the players who shoot below 34% from 3 point range who might be available via trade or Free Agency (Andre Miller, Ramon Sessions, Raymond Felton) are probably not going to be help make things easier for Brandon. Those players need the ball in their hands to be most effective.

Leandro Barbosa might actually be a pretty good fit for the Blazers if he actually played defense or did anything other than create his own shot. I’d hate to think how many fewer touches Greg and LaMarcus would get if Leandro was attempting to run the offense.

It’s easy to see why there was such a buzz around trying to get Jose Calderon last year, although apparently Calderon makes Sergio look like Rajon Rondo.

Is Kirk Hinrich the answer ? I don’t think so, and if he does play a little bit better defense than Steve Blake, is that marginal improvement worth nearly $6M ? That’s like deciding that it was OK to spend an extra $30,000 on your new Acura, which had a base price of $20,000, because you wanted a sunroof.

The other thing that’s clear is that Jerryd Bayless needs to spend the majority of the Summer in the gym with John Townsend. Jerryd has all of the tools to be able to be the ideal PG for the Blazers, but he needs to be able to knock down open shots. He can get to the rim. He’s got good size, speed and quickness. He plays tenacious defense, albeit with a tendency to pick up too many touch fouls out on the perimeter, and he has tremendous athleticism. However, he’s got to be able to become as much of a threat from the perimeter as Rudy or Steve are right now. Once that happens, then the sky’s the limit.

Phil

12 recs | Comment 78 comments

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I know this guy

who is 6’3 200lbs and in college averaged 19.7pts, 4.3 asts and 2.33to per game his senior year. Anybody think we should draft him? I do.

Care to guess who he is?

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on May 29, 2009 5:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He might not be in this years draft

but I think he could be very successful, if we got him.

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on May 29, 2009 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

this must be it :)

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Devin-Harris-2746/stats/
or
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jerryd-Bayless-1067/stats/

by neilan on May 29, 2009 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry thanks for trying though

This is weird as with the 2 fanshots I have 2 of the same posts.

I will let this go over the weekend and congratulate whomever gets it right.

and the stats are exact and Harris was only 170 not 200.

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on May 29, 2009 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jerel McNeal ?

Best I could do on a quick search, tho the stats I have are close but don’t quite match…

by The Penguin on May 29, 2009 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

not bad

close but he averaged 19.8p, 3.9a and 2.9to and as I said above the stats above are exact. The measurements sometimes can be skewed but he is within .5 inches and 5 lbs, but that can change based on where you look.

Good shoot from the hip, but not the guy.

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on May 29, 2009 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Terry Porter - I posted it earlier, I don't know why it didn't stick

The Dude abides

by noaher on May 29, 2009 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

never mind. i posted the answer in the other point guard post

confusing!

The Dude abides

by noaher on May 29, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Congratulations!! Very well done

Exactly, a SG for his first 3 years in college until he moved to PG, his senior year. This is also against NAIA competition after 4 years of college, while Bayless played the most difficult schedule in the nation @ UA and averaged close to the same stats.

Just like Bayless, the best Blazer PG in history had a strong playmaking SG in Drexler, was known for his scoring in college and has eerily similar statistics, both 6’3 around 200lbs, 19.7ppg in their last season before being drafted.

He seemed to work out OK for us IMO and i wonder how many people sat in sports bars saying “He’ll neever become a PG!!!”

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on May 29, 2009 8:17 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs

billups

or terry porter

Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash

by HurraKane212 on May 29, 2009 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you halfway got it

but noaher got it first

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on May 30, 2009 12:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree with a couple assumptions

like the emphasis on needing guys who camp out at the three point line, but I appreciate the work put in here. Having a better way to objectively weight defensive ability would go a long way. It’s at the very least a good start to objectively analyzing the entirety of PGs out there and which could help us.

Reccing only this one, though. Maybe editing this fanpost to include a link to the first one with the explanation would be best.

by Royster on May 29, 2009 5:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

this was the only fan-shot basically of all time that was really long but also totally well done and readable and interesting and not at all daunting. I think it worked to your advantage to have it be a two parter. Very well done Phil, thanks a lot!

by 50backflips on May 29, 2009 6:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

One thing to consider in regards to the dollar value...

… is that the perceived value has far more to do with a player’s fit then their individual upgrade at their position. IE, upgrading PG defense has a spider web effect, strengthening the backcourt by allowing Oden to stay on the court longer, etc. So the cumulative effect is much greater than a simple upgrade at point defense.

Another example of the breakdown of the individual dollar value assignment came when people complained about how much we were paying Raef, ignoring the fact that the price tag essentially was paying for Roy, even if Roy himself wasn’t pocketing the cash.

by zaruga on May 29, 2009 7:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

We as a fan base seem to have become unusually frugal

with PA’s money, and especially with regards to our “cap situation down the road”, when the fact is, barring absolute disaster (One of the big three blow out a knee next year and can never play again), our cap situation for the next 4-7 years is about undergo armageddon. Roy, LaMarcus and Joel will eat up half the cap by themselves in two years, then Oden’s extension will kick in the year after that, and then you have to re-sign Rudy, Nic and possibly Bayless after that, assuming our young core stays together for the most part. If everything goes somewhat to plan, there’s just no reasonable way to have any cap room, regardless of whether we’re paying Hinrich $8 million or Andre Miller $7 million, so why should that factor into our decision making? I’m not advocating a return to SPAM or anything, but this is literally our last opportunity for a long time to make a lopsided move.

Besides, every successful team can afford to pay players as long as they’re contributing. The Lakers aren’t screwed by the tax next year because of Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, and Odom. They’re screwed because they have to pay Walton, Morrison, Vujacic and Fisher a combined $20 million. The Hornets could afford to pay CP3, West and Chandler’s deals, but they’re desperately cutting costs because they owe Stojakovic $27 million over the next two years. The Bulls would be fine with keeping Hinrich and paying Gordon, even with Deng and Miller’s contracts, but they’re cutting costs because they also have to pay Jerome James and Tim Thomas a combined $12 million.

Paying contributors a decent amount will never hurt you. It’s only when you get stuck paying a bunch of immovable non-contributors that you really have to move into cost cutting mode.

by Royster on May 29, 2009 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Our Point Guard of the future!!!!

22 ppg 5.1 apg 4.7 rpg 1.13 stl .480 fg% .377 3pt%…

Brandon Roy

ooooh oooh check out this line up

PG Brandon/ Blake/ Bayless
SG Rudy/ Martell
SF Battum/ Trout
PF LA/ Reggie Evans (Im still sold on trading Sergio for him)
C Oden/ Pryz

Draft Cole Aldrich 2010

by jlarose78 on May 29, 2009 7:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

And with our draft picks

Draft a SF to take Trouts place once his contract is up and Bayless will just have to wait one more year to get some serious playing time (when Blakes contract expires)

Draft Cole Aldrich 2010

by jlarose78 on May 29, 2009 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

PER / $ can change a lot on the next contract for free agents, e.g. Sessions, Felton

by Norsktroll on May 29, 2009 8:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think PER / Age woudl've been the better way to go.

by as11osu on May 29, 2009 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh well, ot the Fakers advance...

LETS GO MAGIC!

Proud member of Duck nation!

by skywaker9 on May 29, 2009 8:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

If you would be so kind

as to avoid mentioning the fakers series, I’d greatly appreciate it as some people may visit here before watching the game off Tivo with family. I’m rooting for the magic to beat the fakers in the finals though :)

by lurtsman on May 29, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No problem

Not worth watching though…

Proud member of Duck nation!

by skywaker9 on May 29, 2009 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks friend.

good info

You and I will share all that we know--so close your eyes and just let yourself go.

by prezofdeath on May 29, 2009 8:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Did you consider using per minute stats instead of per game where applicable?

I know it applies to Kirk, and likely to others as well, but because of the role he was asked to play this past season both his minutes and role in the offense were down over previous seasons. Obviously there’s something to be said for going per game, since a player has to be good enough to get into the game to benefit the team. On the other hand, particularly when you are making comparisons of this nature, I think per minute gives a better comparison as long as you’re looking at guys you’d be considering putting in a starting role going forward. I know it would seriously complicate things, but a pace adjustment would be pretty nice, too.

Also, just a comment on your Steve Nash comment – he looks good numerically, but I’d think he’d look much worse in Portland unless you guys plan on changing your offense around. And the defense…. =/

Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!

by wjb1492 on May 29, 2009 8:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Nash is the only upper tier player that I thought might be available ....

Shaq is in his retirement season. Stoudemire is probably going to be traded by the deadline, assuming that Phoenix doesn’t want to watch him walk away next Summer, and the Clippers are probably going to be yet one more West Coast team that will be keeping the Suns out of the playoffs next year. Phoenix is going to be blowing up that team and starting over. The Blazers have plenty of young talent, and that’s what Phoenix will want if they’re starting over.

Phil

by Philski on May 29, 2009 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was more wondering if you guys would actually even want him, avaulability notwithstanding.

Sounds strange in some ways, 2-time MVP and all, but there were major issues there with Terry Porter pushing defense and trying to change the run-and-gun style. Money-wise and fit-wise, he seems like a bad match for Portland to me. (But I am an outsider, so totally open to being told why I’m absolutely wrong on this….)

Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!

by wjb1492 on May 30, 2009 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, the idea of bringing him or Kidd to the Blazers is whack. But especially Nash who would cost a lot in a trade and plays no D

by Norsktroll on May 30, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You've got to factor in defense.

KIRK HINRICH
105.5 Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
-6.4 Net Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
47.7% Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed
-2.4% Net Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed
41.4% Effective-Field Goal Percentage Allowed v. Point Guards

STEVE BLAKE
108.1 Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
-0.5 Net Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
50.3% Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed
+0.9% Net Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed
45.3% Effective-Field Goal Percentage Allowed v. Point Guards

STEVE NASH
112.8 Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
+0.8 Net Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
50.9% Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed
-0.5% Net Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed
48.5% Effective-Field Goal Percentage Allowed v. Point Guards

It’s no contest. Kirk Hinrich’s first-class defense makes him a special player.

Oh, and for anyone who foolishly believes that Jerryd Bayless is anything but awful on defense, here’s some stats for you.

JERRYD BAYLESS
111.2 Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
+3.5 Net Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
50.3% Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed
+0.5% Net Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed
49.0% Effective-Field Goal Percentage Allowed v. Point Guards

As I’ve written a countless amount of times here, "Bayless’ inability to fight through screens on pick-and-roll defense, overaggressive on-ball defense that leads to foul trouble, and relatively tiny wingspan that makes him useless at clogging the passing lanes are the three major reasons regarding why he flat-out sucks on that end of the court."

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/5/12/873660/be-community-podcast-episode-005#15677570

By the way, all of those above stats can be found at www.82games.com.

by AK1984 on May 29, 2009 9:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I know of another rookie

who has many of the same problems as Bayless take a look:

110.6 Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
+3.4 Net Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
51.7% Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed
+0.9% Net Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed
55.0% Effective-Field Goal Percentage Allowed v. Cs

As has been written countless times here, he has a hard time moving his feet on pick and roll defense, overagressive going for the block instead of going straight up, that leads to foul trouble, and his lack of lateral movement makes him useless at clogging the paint are three major reasons regarding why he flat out sucks on that end of the court.

I think we should bench him for Przybilla who has

103.2 Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
-10.1 Net Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
48.4% Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed
-2.9% Net Effective Field-Goal Percentage Allowed
51.0% Effective-Field Goal Percentage Allowed v. Cs

He is clearly the better player and should be given the bulk of the minutes, I mean I don’t even know if this other guy can make it in this league as he clearly is not as good as our own Przybilla and has no work ethic, or potential even as a rookie. Sure his limited playing time did not hurt and sometimes he looked downright awful at sometimes, but he was a rook and you have to go through those bumps as a rook in order to get better.

Oh, and for anyone who foolishly believes that Greg Oden is anything but awful on defense, the stats bear that out for you.

Dude they are both rookies and still learning the way to play D. If they were both unathletic, lazy, uncoachable players then that would be a problem, but they are not, all they need is time.

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on May 30, 2009 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Greg Oden's problems on defense can likely be fixed with a defensive-minded point guard at the ...

helm, a pivotman coach who can teach him the ropes, Nate McMillan instructing him to stay at home on pick-and-roll plays, improved conditioning, et cetera. Jerryd Bayless, however, possesses inherent disadvantages that’ll always hinder him, which include his tiny wingspan and inability to fight through screens.

Also, I’m somewhat of the opinion that Bayless’ agressive personality carries over to his abrasive on-ball defense that leads to foul calls against him. Of course, Oden’s laid back personality may possibly be the reason behind his poor conditioning thus far as a professional; therefore, it’s a bit unfair of me to speculate about either of them in that regard.

by AK1984 on May 30, 2009 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could counter that it is the big mans

duty to show and allow the PG to get back to his man, how so many times other teams take Roy out of the P&R. That is something Oden does not know how to do with any regularity. If the big stays at home on the pick the G gets a free open shot and it is not as if Hinrich is a world beater at getting through screens. I saw him get run ragged through screens in the playoffs leading to wide open Allen 3pters. Gs are going to get caught up in screens if the opposing G and screener set it up right, why do you think Malone and Stockton racked up a bazillion points and assists, even though you knew it was coming what can you do? “Fight through the screen!!” well OK they still score on you, that’s just basketball.

No one would argue that Bayless does not have out of this world athleticism and if anybody has the inherent tools to become an excellent D’er it is Bayless. Stop with the wingspan stuff for once, does it hinder him a bit? Yes, but if wingspan is all that makes a good D’er then lets pick up Coby Karl and his 6’11 wingspan. How about bringing bask Jack and his 6’7 WS? Wait……both of them are not athletic enough to do anything with their wingspan? And cant hold a candle to Bayless’ athleticism? Oh nevermind.

At least Oden got some burn to show what he could do out there. You have to admit that Nate and his stubborn ways about his PG rotation held Bayless back. 2 years just like last year, portions of the fanbase were SCREAMING to give the PG3 a shot, be it Sergio 2 years ago or Bayless last year and Nate was not hearing it.

Yes Bayless was a little too aggressive on D but so was Oden, that comes with the rookie territory.

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on May 30, 2009 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Last time I thought about it...

fighting through screens is a learned skill not an inherent one. Right? as for the arms? when drafting D.J. Augustin the argument for drafting a player of his size was that his wingspan was longer than he was tall. (5’11" to 6’3") now what’s the difference with Bayless? He has the same reach as Augustin. If its not a problem for one why is it for another?

by SamGoody on May 30, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah it is all about

hustle and desire, same goes with rebounding. Why are some jawdropping athletes not good rebounders or D’ers? They do not have that hustle and grit that it takes to put yourself out there that I see in Bayless.

The great thing about Bayless is he has both the mindset and the athleticism to get the job done, he just needs experience.

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on May 30, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chris Paul isn’t a mediocre three point shooter. He takes an enormous amount of heaves and late shot-clock threes, still shooting 36%. He’s an excellent, excellent shooter with his feet set… we can’t have him, obviously, but he’s perfect in every way.

I dunno why Hinrich is lower on the list than Blake. They are similar players… must be the system, as Hinrich was forced to play shooting guard next to Rose.

Can you calculate Hinrich’s score using his ‘06-’07 stats, when he played point guard on a good team?

proud hinrichsheeple

by Cablinasian on May 29, 2009 10:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I could tell reading the first post with the methodology

that this formula was going to rank Kirk pretty low. His minutes were down coming off the bench, and his role in the offense was substantially down with Derrick, Ben and either Luol/John Salmons being primary options (lowest usage rate in years), which held down his point and assist totals. He played more than half his minutes at off-guard, further holding down the assists. On top of that, this was a bad TO season for Kirk, so his A/TO ratio was lower than usual. And, to top it all off, nothing in those stats captures his defense, which especially this season was the primary aspect of his game.

This year, using /36 numbers instead of per game, I get Kirk around a 49. I didn’t want to take the time to redo everyone, but for comparison Steve Blake at /36 came out at 52. I’m sure there are several other guys who played under 36/game who would also get a boost, and likely a few who played over 36 and would drop a little.

Using Kirk’s 06/07 season numbers, which should be noted is cherry picking his best season,I get a 61.5. That’s using per game numbers, but he played 35.5/game so it would be very close. For his career numbers, using /36, I get a 55.

Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!

by wjb1492 on May 30, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ah, thanks. I knew that if his actual point guard numbers were used there would be a big difference.

I think that it’s more apt to use Kirk’s ‘06-’07 stats for comparison to the Blazers, simply because it’s easier to be a good point guard on a good team. He would have a lot of weapons in Portland, especially off of the pick and roll.

I dunno. With his defense and offensive playing style, I see him as the perfect (discounting Paul, Williams, etc.) Blazer point guard.

proud hinrichsheeple

by Cablinasian on May 30, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, if he has to/wants to go, I rooting for you guys to get him.

You know I come with him, right? ;)

Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!

by wjb1492 on May 30, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Cool, you could join my Bedge Kirk fanclub. We are always looking for new members. :)

proud hinrichsheeple

by Cablinasian on May 30, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very cool. That might be worth a little more cash considerations.

by Norsktroll on May 30, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kirk's per 36 was a 49 this year?

Sergio’s per 36 was a 47

by as11osu on May 30, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

exaggeration doesn't become you, although CP3 seems to inspire it in you

he’s perfect in every way

how about defense?

"Slum dunk? You just go to the rim, and crush.. crush the ball in the rim."
- Nic Batum

by idoltime on May 31, 2009 2:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I meant in context of what the Blazers need. He’s a very good defender.

proud hinrichsheeple

by Cablinasian on May 31, 2009 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

On/Off court opponent production and effective field goal % are somewhat underwhelming to be considered a “very good defender”, despite the All Defensive team selection.

In my book, the defense is key at our PG spot; hence, why kirk is a nice choice. CP3 would be essentially be perfect for any team for any reason, but I would hardly consider him perfect in every way the Blazers would need from a PG. He just happen to be perfect in several things that the Blazers wouldn’t necessarily need from a PG as well.

"Slum dunk? You just go to the rim, and crush.. crush the ball in the rim."
- Nic Batum

by idoltime on May 31, 2009 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rondo is a much better defender

imo

Offseason:
Mike Conley Jr
Reggie Evans
Othello Hunter
(D)Kevin Seraphin
(D)Rodrigue Beaubois

by TheGreatDane17 on May 31, 2009 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rondo or Kirk > Paul on defense by just watching them. It sure seems that Wade should have been giving defensive props over both Kobe and Paul in All Defensive team awrds

"Slum dunk? You just go to the rim, and crush.. crush the ball in the rim."
- Nic Batum

by idoltime on Jun 1, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is a great idea for a post

The major flaw is that it doesn’t take defense into account. I also disagree with your criteria— by using 3ptA/FGA and you are penalizing people that like to take the ball to the basket! The Blazers really need another guy who can do that (Roy is the only one we have). This largely contradicts your criteria which rewards players who draw fouls and likely renders both criteria moot in your system. Further, using raw assist and point numbers without adjusting for minutes played or pace is quite flawed. In short, I like the idea of deciding what we want in a Blazer PG and quantifying it in some way, but I think the ranking system you presented here is less reliable than if we just went by PER for offense and defensive adjusted plus/minus to take defense into account.

by jksnake99 on May 29, 2009 11:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

also, just looking at one season penalizes people who are coming off of injury and such

Again, this is a great idea, but as presented its far too simplistic— I don’t think its a useful tool for figuring out the ideal Blazer PG, frankly, without some major adjustments.

by jksnake99 on May 29, 2009 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What jumps out to me

is what a good PER/$ score Sessions gets. Maybe his demands are not that outrageous after all. I’ve always seen him as a bit of a chucker, but this at least somewhat proves me wrong. Does this stat change anybody else’s view a bit?

by Samsara on May 29, 2009 11:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Sessions only makes about $800K ...

I tried to qualify those numbers somewhat by indicating that the stat is biased toward players taken late in the draft, who are still in their Rookie contract. I feel that Sessions is a poor fit for the Blazers because he wouldn’t be able to stretch the defense when the ball is in Brandon’s hands. The Blazers would be playing four on five at that point, and it would be tougher for Brandon to do what he does best.
Phil

by Philski on May 29, 2009 11:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

can you change that stat to PER / Age

That gives you a calculation of what to expect down the road.

by as11osu on May 30, 2009 12:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Deron WIlliams

Love his game. Utah would never trade him away though

by quezadaz on May 30, 2009 12:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Nash would be interesting

although nash would be great for the blazers in many ways, and would probably get our rediculously athletic team to get out of its slow paced offense. Dwight Jaynes said Nate really needs to stop being so committed to the slow offense, and I agree, nash with guys like rudy, batum, and aldridge would be a killer on the break. however nash would get killed even more on defense that steve blake already does. tough choice

by StocktonNEP on May 30, 2009 1:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

....so what you are really saying is....

that…alien is/was better than the predator…. right?

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on May 30, 2009 2:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Great Post!

Plenty to consider.
However while looking at stats it just doesn’t consider how each player would fit in any given system.
What I mean is Nate is a good enough coach to realize the strength of each player.
Just because we play a certain way with Blake in the lineup doesn’t mean that is the way we would always play.
We play to his strengths not his weaknesses… he wouldn’t be effective at all if we relied on him to start fast breaks, penetrate and used isolation plays.
If we had a PG who could break down defenses maybe they would get the ball in the 4th quarter.
Blakey sat on the 3pt line because he couldn’t do much else late in the game but shoot.

Couple of examples:
If Andre Miller isn’t a great 3 point shooter doesn’t make him a bad fit if he doesn’t shoot threes. But if he penetrates and kicks to an open player then the same outcome is achieved.
If Hinrich plays better defence and Greg stays in the game then we’re better off, plus he would be on the ball meaning higher points and assists.

Thoughts???

by Milky_Joe on May 30, 2009 3:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I was going to write something similiar...

stats in a vacuum are a small part of the picture.

It has been said before on this site that a Chris Paul or even a Steve Nash would not be a good fit on this team because of pace, Brandon, and Nate’s conservative offense.

Folks seem to assume that Steve Blake is the reason for our offensive approach. I don’t really see that.

I think it is more about brandon lamarcus and nate.

Steve is the kind of player who will tailor his game to his team’s needs.

And yes, we needed him to become Chris Paul/Steve Nash in the playoffs against Houston.

But only out of desperation.

The coach and GM have to work together when buying such an important player to the team’s identity as a starting point guard.

Those guys, I hope, are on the same page about what that identity is.

by Blazin' on May 30, 2009 4:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's all about Roy.

Blake is a good fit alongside Roy because he can hit the open shot when Roy is doubled. Roy draws a lot of attention near the basket which clogs the middle. I’m not sure there would be much room for drives to the basket.

by torsoheap on May 31, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The whole point of my post was to take PG stats OUT of a vacuum ...

That’s why in the first half of this two-part post, I talked about the fact that if you want to find the best PG for Blazers, you have to start with Brandon, and find the PG who best compliments his game.

Andre Miller, as well as several other PG’s on the list, is best when he has the ball in his hands. However, in the 4th quarter, when Brandon has the ball in his hands, a PG who ísn’t a legitimate threat from the 3 point line will make it much more difficult for Brandon to do what he does best. Brandon is a 2nd team All-NBA player. You don’t make Brandon adjust his game for anyone other than a player of similar stature – someone like Chris Paul.

I am willing to bet almost anything that when KP is looking at potential players to obtain, he’s looking at who will best compliment the players already in place. Steve Blake, despite his limitations, is actually a very good fit in the backcourt with Brandon. Ask yourself why Steve is a good fit. Take a look at what Steve does best. The best PG for the Blazers is someone who can do what Steve does, as well as a little bit more.

Phil

by Philski on May 30, 2009 7:42 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

I understand what you are saying.

But I guess the issue is whether with a better/different PG we would play the same way.
Sure Brandon is going to get the bulk of the late 4th quarter possessions, he’s our best player especially at getting into the lane, but maybe that’s not enough.
There is also the issue of the other 3 quarters…
And we saw in the Playoffs that it isn’t always effective being so reliant on Roy, a PG who can bring others into the game more like actually creates more space for Brandon to operate… you cant just collapse on one player.
You make Greg and LaMarcus bigger threats you of course give teams more problems.
At the moment teams know whats going to happen, what makes Roy so special is that he can still get it done, but maybe bringing others into the game might be another option.
Steve moves to the 3 point line because he can shoot the 3 well, hence that’s the way we play now… but it doesn’t have to be that way with another player.

by Milky_Joe on May 30, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

when KP is looking at potential players to obtain, he’s looking at who will best compliment the players already in place.

KP is also looking for the kind of players that his head coach will prefer . So you should “filter out” any PG who is < 6’3 and/or <190lbs

by two4larue on May 30, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait..... Hinrich's D is only a little better than Blake's???

Good point, but those guys are at the opposite end of the defensive spectrum. Blake can’t guard anyone, the effort’s there, but the physical limitations are enormous. I could go on all day, but that one stuck a craw in my throat.

by kobisportsguy on May 30, 2009 8:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Edit. post that is.

by kobisportsguy on May 30, 2009 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Edit. post that is.

by kobisportsguy on May 30, 2009 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s like saying Brandon Roy to Shane Battier is just a small defensive upgrade.

proud hinrichsheeple

by Cablinasian on May 30, 2009 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nash

I can’t see Phoenix doing this deal without getting one of our big three or two of our second tier guys in return. Assuming Roy is off the table, as they would have to include another decent player, and I don’t want to “become” the Suns, which of Oden or Aldridge would you sacrifice, or which two of Rudy, Przybilla, Batum, Martell, or Outlaw would you give up?

by The Penguin on May 30, 2009 11:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't really want anyone...

if it comes at the cost of Oden or Aldridge. I still think the big three gives us a great core of young talent to build around. Nash will be retired by the time those three hit their stride.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on May 30, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sergio Rodriguez 25 9.5 Yikes ! Jerryd Bayless 20 2.8 Yikes !

Yeah, but if you could find a way to surgically combine them they’d be a “45”

Problem solved

by two4larue on May 30, 2009 11:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Sergio's per 36 equivalent would've been a 47...

When you play no minutes your raw numbers are too low.

by as11osu on May 30, 2009 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Plus

They would have four legs – Elgin

VENTURA: It's drowning. It gives you the complete sensation that you are drowning. It is no good, because you -- I'll put it to you this way, you give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders.

by 22baylor on Jun 1, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nash.

Life is hilarious.

by SolGoode on May 30, 2009 11:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

huh?

I love how Jose calderons weakness is his defense…. yet that weakness isn’t mention for steve nash who im pretty sure I could score on… nor is it mentioned for jason kidd who is only successful at D in dallas because jason terry/jj barea ( probally spelled that wrong gaurd the quick point gaurds… nor is it mention about bibby who is pretty much responsible for joe johnsons second half collapses because he has to score all the time plue chase the best gaurd on the other team around all the time…

by kwestfan on May 30, 2009 11:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Kidd is great defensively

just not on point guards…

by as11osu on May 30, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

same with Hinrich

gordon and Rose guard most of the PGs

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on May 30, 2009 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rose and Gordon don't so much guard them, as they just let them scoot on by

Rose’s defense this year was one of the most disappointing things I saw all year long from rookies. His offense more than made up for it, but still.

by as11osu on May 30, 2009 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah I hear you about rose

he was supposed to be this D powerhouse and then it was like….bleh this is it? There has to be more, can I see some?

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on May 30, 2009 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Either way though, I agree about Hinrich

Relying on him to slow down the quicker point guards in the league is a losing proposition.

by as11osu on May 30, 2009 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I couldn't agree less about Hinrich

He guarded the opposing teams’ shooting guards because he was the only one of the three who even COULD guard them. As players who don’t focus much on defense, Rose and Gordon would get killed trying to guard most shooting guards, so it fell to Hinrich. It’s a testament to how good his defense is that he can still defend well even out of position.

There are certainly players who are better at defending most PGs than Hinrich (like Rondo or CP3), but considering the PGs that are likely to be available via trade or as a FA, Hinrich is probably the best of the bunch defensively.

by MDBlazerfan on May 30, 2009 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He also guarded

Paul Pierce during the playoffs…Also i think only small quick guards can defend small quick guards, and hinrich is closer to 6’4 than 6’3 so althought i wouldnt call him a tall pg, he isnt small nor especially quick. That being said, his team defense is whats gonna make a huge mark on your team. Sort of like the impact that billups had on the denver nugget’s defense. Hinrich may not be the total leader billups is, but if there is any one area will hinrich will step up and be a vocal leader about, its the defensive end.

On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!

by piccolomair on May 31, 2009 3:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs