What's the "Point" ...
by Philski on May 29, 2009 5:20 PM PDT
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PrintWhomever ends up playing Point Guard for the Trailblazers, this year as well as in the future, will be a role player.
It’s important to accept that fact before going much farther.
The Blazers are Brandon’s team. The other backcourt players on the floor with Brandon will need to fulfill a particular role which will make things easier for Brandon. Brandon will have the ball in his hands at critical times, which means that the PG will need to space the floor, and knock down open shots. The PG will need to be a legitimate threat from distance in order to keep teams from collapsing on Brandon.
Ideally, the PG will also need to be able to play excellent defense, primarily by keeping the opposing Point Guards out of the paint. The ability to fight through picks, rather than having to resort to going underneath or just switching is critical.
The PG will also need to be able to run the offense, and get the ball inside to Greg and LaMarcus where they can be most effective. However, those Assists can’t come at the expense of needless Turnovers, so the ability to take care of the ball and regularly make the smart pass, rather than occasionally make the highlight reel is paramount.
Finally, the PG should be able to put pressure on opposing defenses by getting to the rim and either finishing or drawing a foul. Making the opposing Point Guard really work hard on defense is a great way to neutralize him and make him less effective.
In order to take an objective look at other Point Guards, I picked out a few stats which I felt were most important, and then I created a couple of others which I felt were necessary. The stats that I’ve chosen are the following:
FG % - It’s pretty obvious that, as a role player, the PG will not be able to be a volume shooter, so in order to contribute, he’ll need to hit a high percentage of the shots he does take
3Pt % - When the ball is in Brandon’s hands, usually at the most critical times, the PG will need to be a legitimate threat in order to keep the defense from trying to play five on four
3Pt/FGA – This is a stat that I created to determine the percentage of 3’s taken, with the thought being that if you rarely shoot a 3, then the defense is not likely to feel the need to close out on you (it’s all about spacing the floor and creating room for Brandon)
Min/FTA – This is a stat that I created to determine how often you draw fouls, with the thought being that those that draw the most are usually getting fouled going to the rim, as opposed to being out on the perimeter
Asst – The most obvious stat for a PG
Asst/TO – A critical stat for a PG in Nate McMillan’s system
Pts – Another fairly obvious stat
PER – This is Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating, which includes some of the above information, as well as other parameters
I took a look at several players – Two aging former premier PG’s (Nash & Kidd), two current premier PG’s (Paul & D Williams), several players in their prime (Calderon, Parker, Billups, M Williams, Harris, Barbosa, Miller, Bibby, Hinrich, Felton and Jack), several young players (Rondo, Sessions, Conley, Brooks, Stuckey, Augustin, Rose, Westbrook and Barea) as well as one obligatory L@ker (Fisher). The Blazers included in the list were Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez, Jerryd Bayless, as well as Rudy Fernandez and Brandon Roy.
Once I pulled all of the stats together, I took a look at the data range, divided the range into 12 sections and then assigned a point value for each section. This is shown below:
|
12 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
FG % |
50% |
49% |
48% |
47% |
46% |
45% |
44% |
43% |
42% |
41% |
40% |
39% |
|
3Pt % |
45% |
44% |
43% |
42% |
41% |
40% |
39% |
38% |
37% |
36% |
35% |
34% |
|
3Pt/FGA |
50% |
46% |
42% |
38% |
34% |
30% |
26% |
22% |
18% |
14% |
10% |
6% |
|
Min/FTA |
5 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
15 |
17 |
19 |
21 |
23 |
25 |
27 |
|
Asst |
10 |
9.5 |
9 |
8.5 |
8 |
7.5 |
7 |
6.5 |
6 |
5.5 |
5 |
4.5 |
|
Asst/TO |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
|
Pts |
18 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
|
PER |
20 |
19.4 |
18.8 |
18.2 |
17.6 |
17 |
16.4 |
15.8 |
15.2 |
14.6 |
14 |
13.4 |
|
Excellent |
Very Good |
Good |
Mediocre |
Low |
||||||||
So, the ideal PG for the Blazers would shoot 50% overall, and 45% from distance, with 50% of his attempts coming from beyond the arc. He would also get to the rim with great regularity, and shoot around one free throw every 5 minutes he plays. He would also dish out 10 Assists while turning the ball over less than twice a game (Assist/Turn Over ratio of 3.5). Finally he’d chip in around 18 Points per game, and all of that would result in him having a PER of 20 or better.
On the flip side, the absolute nightmare backcourt mate for Brandon would be a PG who shoots 39% overall, and only 34% from distance. With a shooting percentage that low, luckily only 6% of his shots would be 3’s, however he’d only shoot about one free throw for every 27 minutes he’s taking up space on the court. You might wonder exactly what he’d be doing, since he’d only dish out a little over 4 Assists per game, while turning the ball over nearly as many times. He’d manage to score about 7 Points per game, but Brandon’s game would likely suffer quite a bit due to the fact that the nightmare PG would draw almost no attention from the defense.
With all of that background in mind, here’s the sorted list of ideal Blazer Point Guards from top to bottom:
|
Player |
Rating |
PER / $ |
Weakness |
|
Chris Paul |
77 |
4.4 |
Mediocre 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts |
|
Steve Nash |
76 |
1.1 |
Age |
|
Deron Williams |
73 |
2.8 |
Low 3Pt % |
|
Jose Calderon |
66 |
1.7 |
Weak Defender |
|
Chauncey Billups |
61 |
1.1 |
Mediocre FG % and Asst |
|
Brandon Roy |
61 |
5.2 |
Mediocre 3Pt %, 3Pt Attempts and Asst |
|
Tony Parker |
61 |
1.4 |
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts |
|
Mo Williams |
56 |
1.4 |
Low Asst, Mediocre Asst/TO |
|
Devin Harris |
56 |
1.9 |
Low 3Pt %, Mediocre 3Pt Attempts |
|
Rajon Rondo |
56 |
9.6 |
Low 3Pt % and 3Pt Attempts |
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