Who are the UFA Buyers & Sellers? (work in progress)
by Mad Matt the Road Warrior on May 28, 2009 1:56 PM PDT
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PrintPast history is that restricted free agents mostly return to their existing teams. In projecting offseason activity - I'm more interested in where the unrestricted free agents end up.
I've spent some time on the salary sites to compile the below list of 09-10 projected salaries. For this exercise, all team options were utilized. I'd like your help in linking any articles that indicate whether each team is in a "buy" or "sell" mode. I added a few articles from RealGM. Beneath that list are the impactful free agents - I'm trying to track any teams that might be interested. I'll update links with your help.
TEAM (# PLAYERS UNDERS CONTRACT), ASSETS NOT COUNTED
| NOH (12) | $78,022,190 | SELLER |
| LAL (12) | $77,563,686 | |
| PHX (10), PICK #14 | $77,252,726 | SELLER |
| WAS (14), PICK #5 | $76,157,670 | |
| CLE (13) | $74,068,126 | |
| BOS (11) | $73,736,018 | |
| ORL (11) | $72,993,229 | |
| UTA (11) | $72,972,837 | |
| DAL (10) | $67,062,681 | BUYER |
| ***LUXURY TAX ESTIMATE*** |
||
| NYK (11) Lee, Robinson, PICK #8 | $70,817,055 | |
| MIA (11) | $69,856,875 | |
| SAS (12) | $69,465,530 | BUYER |
| CHI (14) | $68,814,360 | BUYER |
| MIL (11) Villanueva, Sessions, PICK #10 | $66,412,000 | SELLER |
| DEN (8) Kleiza | $66,066,812 | BUYER |
| IND (10) Jack | $65,458,065 | BUYER |
| HOU (12) | $63,199,520 | BUYER |
| LAC (12), PICK #1 | $60,742,614 | SELLER |
| PHI (11) | $60,229,237 | SELLER |
| GSW (11), PICK #7 | $59,980,991 | BUYER |
| NJN (13), PICK #11 | $59,932,625 | |
| ***CAP ESTIMATE*** |
||
| CHA (10) Felton, PICK #12 | $57,695,680 | BUYER |
| MIN (13), PICK #6 | $52,952,978 | BUYER |
| POR (15) Frye | $51,480,018 | BUYER |
| TOR (10) J Graham, PICK #9 | $48,289,962 | BUYER |
| SAC (10) Diogu, McCants, PICK #4 | $45,998,190 | BUYER |
| OKC (14), PICK #3 | $44,416,159 | BUYER |
| ATL (8) M Williams | $42,010,097 | SELL - NEUTRAL |
| DET (10) | $40,467,444 | BUYER |
| MEM (10) Warrick, PICK #2 | $36,810,931 | BUYER |
| UFAs (Possible Suitors) | |
| 1 | Allen Iverson (CHA) |
| 1 | Andre Miller (POR, MIA, PHI) |
| 1 | Mike Bibby (ATL, MIA) |
| 1 |
Jason Kidd (DAL, LAL) |
| 2 | Ben Gordon (CHI) |
| 2 | *Hedo Turkoglu (ORL) |
| 3 | Grant Hill (PHX) |
| 3 | Lamar Odom (LAL) |
| 3 | Ron Artest (HOU) |
| 3 | Trevor Ariza (LAL) |
| 3 | *Josh Childress (ATL) |
| 4 | Brandon Bass (DAL, POR) |
| 4 | Chris Andersen (DEN, POR) |
| 4 |
Antonio McDyess (POR, BOS) |
| 4 | Drew Gooden (SAS) |
| 4 | Joe Smith (CLE, POR) |
| 4 | Rasheed Wallace (DET, SAS) |
| 4 | Shawn Marion (TOR) |
| 4 | *Carlos Boozer (UTA, DET) |
| * If they opt out |
Thanks!
63 comments
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14 recs |
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Comments
Umm...
Last time I checked Miller wasn’t on my team.
(Maybe I’m just misunderstanding how you are doing this.)
It seems like the ‘buyer’ ‘seller’ categories will need some work depending on how the final four teams do. Plus, people bluff a lot…
I added the descriptor "possible suitors"
It could be a long list, but I’m going to try and keep it to 2-3 teams that have the needs and means to acquire.
by Mad Matt the Road Warrior on May 27, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
This is a fun post
I hope you get some good link contributions (won’t be coming from me – sorry).
NO has the highest salary in the league? Good lord…. they are screwed…. how do they build a contender out of the crappy CP/David West supporting cast they shuffled out there in the first round when they are that far over the cap?
seriously
look at some of those salaries!
Peja – $14.2m in 2009-10, then $15.34m in 2010-11.
Chandler – $11.85m, then $12.75m
West – $9.08m, $8.29m, then $7.53m (actually not that bad)
Morris Peterson – $6.21m, then $6.6m
Posey – $6.03m, $6.48m, $6.93m
Paul – lots of money for a long time
With the exceptions of Paul and West, these are a LOT of TERRIBLE contracts for the Hornets. They really are screwed. I can’t decide which of those contracts is the worst. Okay, yes I can and it’s Peja’s. Wow.
Here's what makes me cry
You list 14.2 million
Then you list “lots of money for a long time.”
Sad times for me when 14.2 million doesn’t fall under the lots of money category.
They trade
CP3 and West to Portland, for
LMA, Rudy, Outlaw, Sergio, $3mil of Paul Allen’s money and a mess of KP’s collected draft choices
no x 3
CP3, LMA, Rudy not going there
"What's so interesting is that this team took on a dynamic that was very special. I don't think we as a group, in terms of management, coaches and players, realize what we did as a young team. We broke all the metrics. We broke all the molds. Our challenge is can we continue to do that. As young of a team with 54 wins, no issues off the court, phenomenal chemistry." - Kevin Pritchard
West for Outlaw and Sergio?
Yes please!
PUT BATUM IN NOW: Rallying cry of the BBIQ appreciation club
Just keep swimming, just keep swimming...
by rockingharder on May 28, 2009 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions
if we wanted CP3 and West
We’d gie up Roy, Aldridge, ++. Chris Paul is singlehandedly keeping basketball afloat in NO, i doubt they’d trade him without demanding our franchise guy in return
I don't give up LA
Think about it this last year would have been his rookie year with 4 years of college! The man is gonna be a stud PF for the next 12 years at least.That would be a steal for NO
I have to respond to myself
West is nothing LA is the most underrated Blazer. The man is just getting started people! LA & Roy are here for the duration…………..
I dont understand
Why we would trade a young LMA for an older LMA in West
The Blazers will play beautiful basketball.
Brandon will shoot the lights out. Blake will run and LMA will finish strong at the hoop. Bayless will play because we’ll be so far ahead in the 4th quarter, giving all the Jerryd fans something to smile about.
But wait, that’s not all. Rudy will go 5 of 5 from distance. Batum will posterize someone. And Channing will NOT lead the team in points.
qoute from ofred
i hate david west
dirty, dirty
"The problem with tweeners is that sometimes they’re exactly what you need to plug the hole and sometimes they are the hole."
-LaughingJon
It's more about getting CP3
and if the Hornets were to insist on LMA being part of the deal, it makes sense that West and his contract would be coming to PDX
I like LMA ’way better than West as well, but CP3 is the kind of acquisition would put the Blazers above the L*kers for years to come.
Stern and K*be would be in tears
KP isn’t the kind of GM who’d say “there’s no way I can get Chris Paul, so I’m looking elsewhere”
Cool idea
I know it would be a headache, but just throwing in all the options is not going to create a accurate picture. It will take you more time, but you might want to consider a low/high approach. For example, the Jazz have $22 million in player options. Okur ($9m) is certain to take his, but Boozer could bolt ($12.6 million). So the Jazz could theoretically have as little as $48m or so, or as much as $72m. So something like
Jazz $48m / $72m
Do the Pacers really pick up Marquis Daniels for $7.35 million? Etc…
Again, cool post, Rec.
Good work on this
Just FYI, if Atlanta tenders a qualifying offer to Josh Childress, he’ll be a restricted FA.
Overall, though, at first glance (I won’t be able to analyze them intently today), your numbers look solid. Well done.
Can Childress opt out?
I thought he was a restricted free agent even if he comes back to the NBA.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 27, 2009 3:57 PM PDT reply actions
That is my understanding as well - if they tender him
(which puts a salary cap hold for the tender).
"What's so interesting is that this team took on a dynamic that was very special. I don't think we as a group, in terms of management, coaches and players, realize what we did as a young team. We broke all the metrics. We broke all the molds. Our challenge is can we continue to do that. As young of a team with 54 wins, no issues off the court, phenomenal chemistry." - Kevin Pritchard
Getting Ariza would be a great idea.
It’s not only great for the team, but it also hurts our biggest competitor.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 27, 2009 3:59 PM PDT reply actions
Bingo
Is a defensive specialist with little offensive game to speak of worth 5 years at 8 million per year?
Yes he is. Batum just isn’t designed to stop LBJ in the eventuality of our Championship run. Ariza might be the only guy that can do it. I still keep Batum. Add Webster to the movable pieces list. Now you can maybe make that run at Rubio or Conley Jr.
I think that's all true.
Ariza already has a better offensive game than Batum anyway. He was certainly effective against the Nuggets tonight. Stick Ariza and Batum on the opposing teams best player and you’ve got a solid 12 fouls to waste.
I would also argue that if you get Ariza our movable pieces become extremely flexible. Webster, Rudy, and even Bayless are all great prospects at backup shooting guard. You could move any two of them without really worrying about depth.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 27, 2009 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm sure you're aware how against moving Rudy I'd be
I actually think you need the extra guy for injuries and depth.
Roy, Rudy, Ariza Batum makes me mighty comfortable with the wing spot for the next 8-10 years.
Blake, Bayless, Sergio, Webster, Outlaw, Frye (if you can swing a sign and trade), and Freeland along with #24, #32, #38, #55 and #56 makes for 2 or 3 great bundles, and would help finish out our final 2-3 major rotation type players.
This also ensures 48 minutes for players that are actual point guards. I think not playing Roy or Rudy at that spot is essential looking forward.
If it gets the right guy here this offseason
I’d also be okay including future first rounders as well. Now we can really start talking about the upper echelon point guards with all the easily movable parts.
Yea, I agree.
I would rather not move Rudy. Still… if you can get a top point guard I think you would have to do it. A guy who’s going to be on the court 40 minutes a game is certainly worth more than a guy who might only be on the court 25 minutes a game.
But yes, I would like to keep Rudy. It would take a lot for me to be OK with it. Harris, Rondo, Parker, maybe even Jose Calderon. Those guys are all out of reach, but if you could swing a deal and they wanted Rudy I’m not sure how you could say no.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 28, 2009 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions
After all your talk about defense and then you throw in Calderon?
Don’t think that works. I’d much rather throw Przy into a deal than Rudy. Rudy is 24 years old and there really isn’t an issue with his playing time because Roy is perfectly capable of playing the 3 spot. Absolutely no reason he can’t play 30 minutes per game. And his 30 minutes per game like Manu’s are much more valuable to a team than a lot of other players 35-40.
I said maybe.
I think Calderon and Rudy have similar value with Calderon playing a position of greater importance to us.
When an entire team does terrible for one year, I usually forgive the guys who have been statistically excellent in the past. It’s the same reason I was convinced Hinrich would come back to his previous form. Calderon hasn’t reached his peak yet and he’s already pretty terrific. His defense is most certainly a problem, but about on par with Blake and Sergio.
I’m not a huge an, but I would still put him on a higher tier above Conley, Hinrich, Brooks, etc. None of whom I would be willing to give up Rudy for. I might be tempted to do it for Calderon.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 28, 2009 1:33 AM PDT up reply actions
The time to do the Rudy-Calderon deal
was last spring, before Toronto dealt TJ Ford after their PG controversy
now, the Raptors have no one to adequately replace Jose at PG. (I suppose they could draft one, though)
Batum may be too small to stop LBJ (now), but he's better on Kobe than Ariza would be
I think Batum will be a much better player than Ariza in the not-to-distant future. Remember, he’s 3.5 years younger and has only played one year IN THE US. He’s going to get stronger just as a matter of maturing, but also with NBA strength work. He’s also going to be a much better offensive player with more experience and training. If he continues the progression he made during the season, he’ll be a fantastic player.
Ariza certainly had a coming out year, but he’s still the #2 SF option on his team – they only bring Odom off the bench because they want to spread the fire power.
I could see bringing in Ariza if we could get him, but I think Batum’s potential is greater and wouldn’t want to see him lose the opportunity to grow here.
I would loooove to get Ariza.
The sting of that hard foul on Rudy has more than worn off. It all depends on who LA decides to go with. I have a feeling they re-sign Odom and let Ariza walk, but I’m wrong a lot. Who knows. I think the smart move would be Ariza between those two. Could Odom be our answer? Would he want to come here? He would fill Outlaws shoes perfectly, and give us another ballhandler / playmaker.
by dario argento on May 28, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
You left off Antonio McDeyss
Dice is nice.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
Bass
Isn’t Bass a restricted free agent? And you can add Millsap to the list of RAs. Both of these could be of interest for the right price.
From HoopsHype Chat with Tommy Beer 5/27/09
“I was talking to a source out in Portland today, who is plugged into the Blazers. He seems to feel that Pritchard is going to package Travis Outlaw and/or Sergio Rodriguez, along with a few of the 5 picks they own in the 2009 draft – in exchange for a more beef up front and possibly a backup to Aldridge at the 4. "
Draft Cole Aldrich 2010
What's "beef up front"?
Is his front what is usually called the backcourt, i.e. a point guard? A bulkier SG/SF? Wouldn’t that be Martell’s role?
Hoopsworld is a bit inconsistent with its reporting.
works for me
I’d still like an upgrade at the PG position, but if KP flips Trout for the “right” backup PF that plugs one gaping hole that was exposed in the playoffs
Sounds like KP isn’t going the “FA route” to find his back PF, which makes sense since it would be difficult to entice any FA worth his salt to come to PDX and only play 10-12 minutes behind LMA
You could add
Leon Powe and Glen Davis to the list of players to fill that PF2 position.
But if KP is doing the trade thingy
That Hoopsword reported, then all the restricted FA big men are back on the table via the sign and trade
Leon Powe had ACL surgery and reportedly also a small microfracture. Should be out at least until Christmas.
Which should drop his stock, but not sure the Blazers want to add to their injury concerns.
Great post. Rec'd.
I am confident one of these players in going to be in black and red next year. Then again maybe we put our eggs in the 2010 FA bonanza. If I’m KP I swing for the fences this off-season, ensure at least a deep playoff run next year, and compete for a title for years to come. I think this off-season is the most important one for the next few years.
Personally my prediction is that we sign Andre Miller, and trade for a back up 4.
I never realized the PG solution is staring us in the face
Starbury. Right there for the pickin’.
I kid, because I love.
haha.
Fearthesword.com: "There is no doubt that the long layoff, combined with the ease of the first two rounds had the Cavaliers a bit tired in the 4th quarter."
by Cablinasian on May 29, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Why would there be dead baby kittens?
Signing Marbury would be cause for mourning. You only kill baby kittens when you want to celibrate.
OK, maybe not just to celibrate. Boredom is another totally acceptable reason.
hakkaa päälle !
I want opinions
What do you think about Reggie Evans as our backup PF-Banger. Not much of a scorer or weak side defender… But he goes up & grabs the boards. Has experience with Coach Mc… Thoughts?
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Rodrigue Beaubois(Eurostash)
He is essentially the anti channing frye
One of the few players in the NBA who can come in & be effective(on the glass) with limited backup minutes(15-20 mpg)
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Rodrigue Beaubois(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 28, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions
i really like the idea
and hope PHI would let him bolt, he is a key part of their scrappy high-energy underdog identity. But with coaching changes there its not such a reach to think hed be aailable
We do have that trade exception
Plus they could sign Channing Frye(Iguodala College Team Mate @ Arizona)
:)
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Rodrigue Beaubois(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 28, 2009 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I think he's the right type.
I think he would be a good fit for toughness off the bench. If (heaven forbid) LMA went down with an injury we would definitely need other scorers to assume the respoonsibility for the missing points, as Evans certainly can’t replace that. But he’d be a great change-of-pace at the 4.
not worth it
sorry, for the minutes available at back up PF, and the weakness of the draft, not really worth it.
"The problem with tweeners is that sometimes they’re exactly what you need to plug the hole and sometimes they are the hole."
-LaughingJon
Puts us in prime position
For the most under rated player in the draft, Terrence Williams from Louisville. Seattle boy, friends with Roy. Has much better defense Rudy & rebounding then too.
Terrence Williams -
Floor: Mikael Pietrus
Ceiling: Andre Iguodola
Offseason:
Mike Conley Jr
Reggie Evans
Othello Hunter
(D)Kevin Seraphin
(D)Rodrigue Beaubois
by TheGreatDane17 on May 28, 2009 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions
huh
i know squat about most college players so i’ll trust you on this one, we’ll have to see how this guy turns out in the NBA.
"The problem with tweeners is that sometimes they’re exactly what you need to plug the hole and sometimes they are the hole."
-LaughingJon
by appel82 on May 28, 2009 11:16 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think a GM would take into consideration ....
… the fact that a guy was a friend of a current player or played together with one while in college. That really has no bearing when looking to put together a lineup.
hakkaa päälle !
T-Will is perfect
Im a huge T-Will fan. Best defender in the draft this year hands down. Would have to move Trout definetly to get him.
I also like your idea of Rodrigue Beaubois. Good prospect that we can keep overseas to develop. Plays like Rondo with a better jumper.
i like shawn marion
but not worth it, unless you trade pryz and play more small ball, which could be interesting, marion and LMA together, running the break, could be cool, but it would have to be a relatively cheap contract, probably not gonna happen.
"The problem with tweeners is that sometimes they’re exactly what you need to plug the hole and sometimes they are the hole."
-LaughingJon
A thought on Trevor Ariza...
I think that Nic Batum covers the Ariza skillset nicely.
There might be a strategic reason to sign Ariza to an offer-sheet though — forcing the Lakers to dig deep to match for him would make it less likely that they would be able to bring back Bynum.
Similarly, a play for Shannon Brown at significant money would tie up Laker funds.
They are in a very tight situation with respect to crunching through the luxury tax threshhold and there are those three very key free agents coming up for them…
Then again, there’s probably a bit of an unspoken code that you don’t tap out your competitors with offer sheets unless you’re damned serious about signing them. Karma and all that… Still, the easiest way to weaken the Lakers, who will be one of the 4 top teams in the West again next year, would be to force them to choose between Ariza and Brown, on the one hand, and Odom on the other. If they are able to resign everybody, they are much tougher than if they lose one of those guys…
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Are there any teams that you could put down as “buyers” other than Dallas and Portland? I think Cleveland will try to buy as they retool for another run for a title and to try and keep LeBron happy.
New Jersey has long been rumored to be a seller, partly due to current finances, partly due to trying to put together a stadium in Brooklyn, and partly to make a run at a top FA in ’10.
Indiana and Sacramento are listed as buyers here but all I’ve heard is that they are in worlds of hurt financially.
Maybe I’m misinterpreting what “buyer” and “seller” mean, but given the current state of affairs it seem like there will be far more sellers and far fewer buyers.
MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)
by The Cactus Leaguer on May 31, 2009 4:41 PM PDT reply actions
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