The Importance of the 2009 Draft

I would say that is the main importance of the 2009 draft. We know KP likes draft day as the main day to make deals to improve the team so I think this day is the a critical day of the off-season (the other being the beginning of free agency and trading season).

As far as #24 goes, the team needs to leverage that asset to make the best and highest use out of it, whatever that is.

case in point: the phoenix suns. the list of players that they just sold away has gotten longer and more ridiculous(as far as the talent they have just given away). If they would have kept most of the players they sold away they would still be a contender and be in good shape for the future but instead they are getting old quick and have fallen out of the playoffs. You don’t always have to make moves for this year but(much like the spurs do) it’s for the future of your team to sustain success.

to debate whether or not this draft is important..
I don’t see anyone in this draft at 24 that would make an impact next season. If we do keep the pick (we won’t), it will be for a Euro w/potential who will be stashed away for a few seasons, at least until they reach puberty. ;-)
I won’t be suprised to see KP package a pg, picks, and Trout for a chance for Rubio or Curry. I don’t think that this is the “best case scenario”, as obviously the most pressing need is a lockdown PG who can distribute and defend. I just don’t see any available PG out there that fits this need and isn’t on the downside ot their career. If we do land Curry or Rubio, I would expect to see Blake start next year, and see Roy assume more duties at the point. With a healthy Martell, in the mix, this can easily be done. Curry and Rubio would be expected to contribute down the road.
I know there are a bunch of guys who think that Bayless is the answer, but I just can’t stop thinking “Erick Barkley” when I see him. The one thing he has going is his work ethic, but I just think that he is an undersized SG, and you could find one of those in nearly every YMCA or schoolyard in the country.
So the bottom line is, this draft won’t have much of an impact unless a blockbuster trade plays out.

This offseason is a great opportunity (possibly the best opportunity) to finally solidify a playing rotation of 8 or 9 guys that will be together for many years and bring home a championship.

The draft is a big part of the offseason and it could be the night for our big move but I doubt it for one reason: we can’t use our potential cap space on draft night.

Instead I see us making some little moves in the draft possibly trading a future pic to move up (this is what I would do since future pics should be seen a valuable in a weak draft) or try to trade our pics so we can have more second rounders in the future. I think we will take the most cap space possible into FA either to sign a quality free agent or make a lopsided trade for the PG we are all dreaming of.

We need some one to play defense when Aldridge sits, Outlaw and Frye can’t do that. Bayless doesn’t seem to get the minutes which must change. I don’t care if it costs us games, Bayless needed to play a lot more this season. Nate dropped the ball on that one.

if he pans and in 2-3 years (after a year or two of D League service) he beats out Bayless for the starting PG spot, so be it. If not, oh well at least we gave it a shot and it’s not like it cost us that much (Sergio, possibly Outlaw).

If Memphis drafts Rubio, we trade our pick/Outlaw/Sergio for Conley. That gets us a PG, he’ll be great for Greg, and then for our backup PF we should sign the Birdman.

I would love the Bird, on the .5% chance he leaves Denver. I only have one problem with signing him though.

I worry about minutes if we added him to our bigs. Even though he is a near perfect fit for us it would be hard to give him more then 10 mins as our backup 4. Someone who plays his butt off every night has sure as heck earned more then that.

I actually am one of the few that wouldent mind keeping Trout around. He could run a backup 4 for us (which many think he is better suited for then the 3).

I would want to keep Trout around, at least to the trade deadline as a Martell insurance policy. If for some freak reason Martell goes down again we would be pretty thin at the 3 position. It might be nice to keep him around until at least the trade deadline.

Or we could always play Rudy at the 2 more and Brandon at the 3 if it did happen. I think it would go better then some people project it would. Brandon seems better equipped to battle it out with 3’s to me then defending a pure speed guard.

That being said, there are some problems, i dont anticipate Travis enjoying going from our 6th man to the guy that gives LA a breather for 10 mins a game. But if he wants to buy in to our team and the road that we are headed in, he is going to have to buy into the system as well and accept his role or move on.

Although if there is a deal to be had for an upgrade at PG, I would gladly package him. But i do like the fact he could be our backup 4 and it wouldent kill us in the short term.

We still need someone more physical. (Haslem anyone?)

Any thoughts?

… in the past, we were adding to and building our team. I think it is safe to say that now we are a threat in the playoffs. We are 1-3 players away from being a serious contender for a title. To me, this draft might be important for the sole purpose of addition by subtraction.

I know a lot of talk about Sergio, Trout, Bayless, and others has been surfacing. Well, in Sergio we know one thing is for sure … he isn’t going to be happy if he doesn’t play a bigger role. His role is not changing in Portland. I agree with the general consensus that Trout has tapped out on potential. He might make slight improvements or recessions, but nothing that will jump off the charts. I don’t think we can afford to abandon the unknowns (Bayless, Batum) just yet. So, do I think we can get someone at 24 who will change our team? Probably not. If we pick at 24, I will be surprised. Well, unless someone with a situation like Danny Granger had takes an unexpected slide.

Which leaves us two options:

1.) Addition by subtraction … whether it be packaging a couple guys for a pick that WILL solidify a role, or trading a couple guys and some 2nd rounders for a proven veteran who fills a role.

2.) Continue stock piling assets for the future who may or may not contribute to the franchise. Having a few solid bench players is reasonable. Having six guys on the bench and half of them not sniffing enough time to build a role for themselves is absurd. Especially when we could get more from our team with less.

I’m sure it is clear where I stand on this, so it probably sounds biased. My point is … this draft is important because we need to put the right guys in the right places. We have most of our guys. We are no longer building … we are finely tuning a well-oiled machine. We do not need to look for the right words for the sentence; we need the right punctuation. Okay, enough analogies and metaphor.

Putting together a team that can play together and win games on the bball court is where it’s at.

I would think to anyone watching the playoffs right now, it’s obvious there’s a fairly big gap between this Portland team and the teams that are still playing right now. Grabbing more rookies isn’t going to bridge that gap.

The organization has moved from rebuilding to making a push for a championship. The top 11 players on the roster have a legitimate shot at making that push without any changes and they are in no danger of falling off due to age. Losing to Houston in the first round is not an indictment against the team as constructed.
I think what they need won’t come in the draft: age and experience. They will continue to gain it next year if they stand pat and they can add a couple veteran free agents also to speed up the process and still keep the team intact.

Probably not. The odds say we probably won’t. But that doesn’t mean they can go to sleep at the wheel. Parker, Prince, Howard are three guys that come immediately to mind. (Zach Randolph for that matter.) And Mike Redd, Agent Zero, Ginobili and our own Steve Blake all are NBA starters who came out of the 2nd round.

A smart organization tends to find talent. And while there are limits to how much talent you can stockpile, there is no such thing as having too much. If nothing else, it gives added flexibility to do something else.

Summer of Cap:

• Raef ($12.7 million) and Steve Francis (15.7!) come off the books for good now, leaving roughly $49 million in salary if Channing leaves for nothing in return. Estimated at about $7 million under the yet-to-be-determined cap.
• Roy and Aldridge are likely to receive offers this summer, and next year their new contracts of lets say a combined $24 million come on the books (or their QO holds). Anyway, the Blazers won’t have significant cap space left next year unless in theoretical scenarios (Miles $9 million will come off, but they would also have to let Steve, Sergio, Travis go for nothing and maybe hope Joel opts out. Funny thing is, only Webster is really under contract. Everyone else is optional. Speak of flexibility even though it’s just in theory and would leave a gutted roster).
• So the Blazers have to move now or latest latest at the deadline. If that timeframe passes and KP has not found the right combination, his proverbial cake has not gone up or burned depending on your definition. Of course next summer there can still tweaks be made, but at the cost of much better assets.
• And while it’s a 54 win cake with a chance to become maybe a 60 win cake out of itself, few observers believe it’s already a championship winning cake.

How does this draft play into it, a draft that likely produces few stars but a lot of solid players:

• They can target a role player directly (a third point guard or a backup big man) if they want
• They can move up to get the exact role player they want, maybe one with potential to be much more
• They can move out of the draft and use the accumulated assets to target a player, assumed to be at least a rotation player.
• The four second round picks are trading assets. Unless they land some late steal, none of these players will play for the Blazers soon, maybe ever. So they will either get converted into future picks, or used to facilitate other deals.

in the wise words of the one they call fat…..THEY JUST NEED TO MAN UP. ;) Take that 09!!! ;)

The battery the Blazers car has now is serviceable, but it’s needing water added and it’s had to be jump started a few times. The car can get by with the battery it has, but it would be nice to get a better one. Although, at some point, if you want the car to be at peak performance, you’ll need a new battery.

I don’t know who the old battery is, I just made the dumb analogy, I don’t have to explain it.

Actually, I think a better analogy is that the pick is a gift certificate to a restaurant that we got for free. It has value to us, but maybe more value to someone else who really likes that restaurant. It might be worth using for ourselves, trading, selling, or it might just costs us more once we add drinks and desserts at the restaurant and we’ll have to pay extra out of our own pocket. No matter what, it has an expiration date (draft day) and we can’t let it go to waste.

My plan is to use the pick on Hansbrough or if he’s going before the Blazers, trade up with the pick, 2nd round picks, or Sergio to get Hansbrough at 19.

who is totally off the radar of other teams and who will go on to be regarded as the steal of the draft.

watching the orlando magic and courtney lee making the impact he did made me realize that this draft is important, KP is always about getting assets and the draft is another way to do that. Lee didn’t have a great season, after all he was the 22nd pick, but he has grown as a player and by the end of the year making an impact, similair to daniel gibson’s rookie year. Anyways, we could get a player in the draft that provides us that spark when we really need it in a playoff game, so I pay attention, plus the draft is a lot of fun

You can’t start acting like Phoenix did the last few years. The team needs a balance of new talent and up and coming. If you don’t then you wake up one day and realize you suck. Eventhough Bayless is not getting any playing time, it’s like having a ball of potential on the bench that is an injury away from being your starter. Not every draft pick works out, but if you do it diligently you end up with a Nicholas Batum and Rudy Fernandez. They are team changers. You have to take your best shot in the draft, always working every angle to position yourself to get one of the 5 guys you targeted – every year. If your front office is any good at scouting talent you are gauranteed to be good if you land your guys.

KP needs to find replacements for Roy, Aldridge, and Oden before their rookie contracts expire, or Paul Allen will be looking under his sofa cushions for enough money to buy a cup of coffee.

i hope that the front office is thinking 2+ years ahead and have already figured out plans A through Z and then some. You never know who will step up (Batum and Bayless at summer leauge as contrasting examples), especially a draft with so many potentially awesome PGs, there could be a lot of Aaron Brooks, Courtney Lee types to come out of draft looking really good, that get more PT in the right system, with the right coach to suit them, and we could get one of those kind of guys, but maybe not until 2010, just because as many have pointed out, Bayless is still a project, and we may showcase sergio for at least another half a season if the right deal does come KP’s way, and Blake is just too damn efficient with Brandon to throw away the work he has put in in Nate’s system.
The more people hash out different PG scenarios, where we basically wipe the slate clean and start over with 2 or 3 new PGs, the more weary I am about drafting another project point guard and the less I care about getting a new one.

Someone else had a good point yesterday too that none of the 4 teams in conference finals have a hot shot or franchise point guard playing (jameer nelson being injured) save Mr. Billups.

There are so many PG prospects that could work out for the blazers, I feel like you go all or nothing, and either get a vet., or hold on to you cards, only making small time deals in the mean time, maybe trade all the 2nd round picks for a future 1st round (john wall) and/or the rights to some sleeper talent.

Maybe just having a lot of potential play makers (see Denver, Orlando) is more important than having the best PG after all? Okay, Chauncey’s leadership aside, Denver has a lot of guys that can score in multiple ways with no fear, same with Orlando, lots of guys who can create off the dribble, and shoot the 3, Pietrus, Hedo, Lewis, Lee, Alston. mkay, done blathering…

Does that mean you aren’t going to fight?

Yes, lower picks are a craps shot, but maybe 1 in 3 turn out to be quality bench players, or better. It will be a long time before the Blazers will be drafting at the top, so they need to keep stoking the fire with good prospects. They may not play on the court, but you get to know their work ethic and get a better idea of potential in a rookie season. Plus you always need dough-nut runners!

KP has drafted, Rudy, McRoberts, Taurean Green, Batum just in the last two drafts (and Koponen to boot!). I figure we will get at least 2 rooks for next season.

they take the best player available. We arent going to likely get a starter at 24 but if we take the best player it might pan out.

So either:
1. Use it as intended, but maximizing it’s potential in any form. A really raw player isn’t bad when our roster is pretty much set 1-10. Position #24 is about where Batum, Rudy, and Segio were drafted. Not too bad, just need some patience.

2. Use it in a trade to land a better veteran presence than what we originally thought we could get.

Remember, this year’s salary cap # is going to be less than originally expected thanks to the economy, so teams flirting with the luxury tax line are going to be looking to unload salary (where our beautifully acquired 3 million $ trade exception plays a huge role)

There will be quality veterans available for the right package of talent/picks/expiring contracts, and KP knows this. We need to clean up the rotation and I think Outlaw and Sergio are obviously the ideal candidates to package, and possibly Bayless as well.

The draft is always important, even this year, look at guys like Josh Howard, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Carlos Boozer etc. that were all drafted lower than #24. We can either stay at 24 and get someone solid (Darren Collison?) , or maybe package Sergio or Bayless with #24 and maybe one of our 2nd rounders to move up into the teens and grab an Eric Maynor, Tywon Lawson, Johnny Flynn, etc. which gives us a long-term replacement for Blake. Then we package Outlaw and the remaining guard from above, maybe with next year’s 1st round pick to go after a guy like Gerald Wallace.

Or maybe none of that happens and we just acquire a veteran PG via trade using the assests above and take a guy like Hansborough at #24 to shore up the front line.

Either way, the draft is always important.

To make a Sergio and the 24 pick to NY[or?] for their first rounder next year move a viable option. Collison would be a good fit if he falls to 24,Holliday will go in the late teens and is about the only guy I would trade up for,Blair would cost to many assets and Freeland is proably more NBA ready and as a late first round pick would be dirt cheap

It’s important for all the reasons mentioned ad nauseum above and in the sidebar, but we’re not rebuilding anymore. We’re rebuilt. We won 54 games with the second youngest team in the league, we don’t need to make broad sweeping changes through the draft like we did in years past, we need to make a few tweaks here and there. We’ve entered the era of trying to find a hidden gem in the draft, much like the mid ’90’s no trying to land an immediate impact player.

Another note, There are 30 team in the league, therefore 30 starting PG’s. Let’s assume that the average length of time spent starting is 10 years +/- before they move to the bench. That means that there are 3 starting PG’s per draft on average. This draft is notably weak, so we’ll say that there are 2 starting PG’s in this Draft… One is Rubio, the odds of finding the second are not good. There are 10 PG’s projected to go in the 1st round alone after Rubio, so the odds of getting the other future starter is 10%. The odds are better playing the slots in Vegas

the bunch of youngsters theme will run its course…the playoff series showed the value of experience…we need to add experience more than we need to ad potential right now…

we have all the potential in the world already…but still lack major experience…the draft won’t fix that problem…

But I don’t care about the draft this year at all. The team needs to get older, not younger. Outside of Rubio, there isn’t anyone that I’d care to go get, and I’m not sold on Rubio ever flourishing under a half court offense. Trade the picks for some veteran PF or SF, ideally someone like Gerald Wallace. I’d freaking wet my pants if we could swing a sign and trade for Birdman, or even Caron Butler. Whatever happens, in KP I trust. I do know this: When it goes down, whatever IT is, no one will see it coming.

TERRENCE WILLIAMS. From Louisville.

Lots of thought provoking speculation. Seems to sort out like this to me.

Consolidate talent – trade only if you can upgrade to top grade talent. The core is that good now, with improving key youngsters, that you are really only looking for a new starting PG, back up PF, and maybe/maybe not a SF. 5 and 2 are done. LMA and Nic are not going anywhere. Give up on Webster at your own peril and he’s coming off the injury so iffy trade value.

Point guard will be determined by what you can get.

Trade for a quality starter; give up Blake and Sergio or Bayless. If it means a near All-Star potential starter then I’m content with either Bayless of Sergio as back-up. Maybe the Finn as the 3rd. I think getting quality through a trade ends up being very difficult to accomplish since no one will want to trade the type of quality we need. You end up working a deal for Blake’s talent level and there is not a driving “style” need to make that move. I’m just not impressed with the free agent PG crop.

Its our good fortune to have a deep PG pool in a weak draft. May help us by making it EASIER to pool our lower picks and move up. What are all those chips actually worth? Find a cash conscious team that would give up a guaranteed 1st for 2nds, say 2-8 and 2-25 for 1-28 and 2-2 and 2-26 for 1-26 (plus$?). Package the 1-26 and 1-28 for 1-20? Package 1-20 and 1-24 for 1-17? Lots of chips to move up maybe 7 slots. Just trying to test balanced value. So, is a 17 worth a 24 plus 4 seconds? [Nice to keep one second if you can.] Could you possibly squeeze up to 11 or 12? Is 15 more realistic? I think you could throw in Sergio with a decent first and move up some more.

What’s left to barter? Outllaw is the odd-man-out with no real bonus for playing two positions and not quite being in the top in either. Need to find a system where his athleticism fits better. I think a GM could be enticed.

What / who are an Outlaw +/or Sergio / and around a 15 worth? Is that going to be enough to get real quality? Not quite sure you can get there.

Right now my PG draft choice would be Tyreke Evans if you keep Blake. Maybe Curry (weak D?) or Maynor. I still like Bayless.
 
I keep coming back to: if you had a near all-star potential guard (Calderon, Barbosa, Harris would be my targets) would you trade him for Outlaw & Blake & a mid-1st round pick? Maybe KP can slap it together. Or, do you need to go to the draft to get good value? More likely due to the gamble and upside possibilities.

Back-up PF? Free agent Lamar Odom. 3rd PF: Joel Jr. Frye: gone.

We know it will be fun to watch…