Weekend Discussion: Three Names

1) Sergio – his dissatisfaction with his situation is just one reason I think he WILL be the one to be traded. He got floated before the last trade deadline, and he knows it as well. On top of that, he has value for a few teams out there right now (Knicks, Bucks, Suns?). He’s not a starter for the Blazers and even his position as #2 is likely fading. No surprises here.

2) Travis – and not really because I WANT him to go – love the guy, actually – he’s the goofy heart of this team, a glue guy that everybody loves, fans AND players. The reason I put him here (and not my preference, Sergio) is because his trade value has peaked, imho. We’re always in “just watch him NEXT year” mode. After next year, the other teams in the league will catch on as well. Time to move him now as a young wing with “unexploited upside and potential” that some “genius” coach can unlock…and get a decent veteran backup 4, veteran point or move up the draft while he still holds that mystery value to the rest of the league.

3) For the first one, it’ll either be Sergio or Channing. I believe that everyone pretty much assumes that they’ll both be gone before training camp starts. Since I’ve already gone off on Serg, I’ll make a case for keeping Frye. He’s inexpensive and will remain so until he gets a chance to actually play effectively for more minutes. He fits in Portland better than anyone on the roster, bar none and he brings a big man who can shoot from range (theoretically, anyway). That said, I still think he’ll be gone as well…

Second one would be Webster. I think some people will say that he should go because he’s now “injury-prone” and because we can still get value for him. I disagree with that (conjured) assessment as he’s an athletic wing who COULD start or come off the bench, shoots the 3 like few others (when he’s on) and comes with a reasonable contract… Until we have a better idea of what’s happening, I like Webster over Outlaw mostly because of the timing and what they’ve shown (or not shown) lately…

1) Sergio (obvious)

2) I have to go with none of the above. I’m a big believer in “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. 54 wins qualifies as “ain’t broke” in my book.

3) I think a lot of people will say Outlaw. Unfortunately, after this last year (especially playoffs) his value is tanked. Keep him for another year, or at least a half if you REALLY need to see him gone.

If there is one guy who you maybe could get a trade-up for? I’d say Rudy.

1) Sergio: He wants to go, he’s got to go.

2) Frye: I don’t necessarily think he should be traded, but I don’t think they blazers want to pay his salary for a wow player who bluelights as an NBA bench warmer.

3) I think a lot of people will say Outlaw. I understand it, but man, you wait till next year…

1. Jerryd Bayless – I think we’re trading for an upgrade point guard. Bayless seems like a more versatile throw-in for such a deal than Sergio. He’s young, he’s got work ethic and professionalism and no nosy agents from Spain. And I’m just not feeling the “point guard of the future” vibe from him at all.

2. Rudy Fernandez – I think you can get the most for him while losing the least. His skills are duplicated by Martell Webster and Brandon Roy. I’d be really curious to see what his market value is right now.

3. Channing Frye – It’s a good thing to have a poor man’s Lamarcus Aldridge around in case the real one gets hurt.

1. Sergio

I think this one is clear. Sergio is unhappy with his role as we’ve seen through his agent and his announcements. He doesn’t quite fit with the team we are trying to build; his skill set just doesn’t match to the methodical offense Nate likes to run. I think Sergio will be included in an off season move, most likely as a throw in to a larger deal, though I do leave a small probability for a Sergio for draft pick scenario. His youth, cheap contract and highlight reels with Rudy will make him appealing to other teams. Additionally, the Blazers have tons of off season options (draft, FA, improvement of Bayless) for the PG spots, so we aren’t in a pickle if we move Sergio.

2. Rudy

Hear me out first because I’m taking what I assume will be an unorthodox approach to this question. I’m not trading Rudy because I don’t like him, quite the contrary, I love Rudy. He’s got talent, he’s got potential, he’s got flair, he’s got about half the women in Portland swooning over him, he’s got a cheap contract and his name is easy to chant. But these are all the reasons why another team would love to have Rudy. If I want to swing a deal this off season I want it to be a good one. We don’t need any lateral moves and this is the last summer the Blazers will have with cap space to use. Outlaw, Blake and Sergio aren’t going to combine to bring us an impact player even though many fans think so.
Rudy is the perfect guy to move if we are acquiring a big piece. I already mentioned why other teams would love to have him, but let me say why the Blazers would be okay (heartbroken, but okay) with giving him up. Rudy plays behind our best player, Brandon Roy and that puts a strain on any rotation that Nate wants to build. We want both of those guys to get big minutes, but that involves unbalanced 3 guard lineups or putting one of the two SGs out of position (where they play worse). We can improve our team and balance out the rotation by moving Rudy.

To sum up: I don’t want to move Rudy, but in a practical way, he makes the most sense to move if and only if we are trying to get a big improvement elsewhere on the roster.

3. Blake

Steve Blake’s name will get tossed around like slow guys during the running of the bulls. I don’t think he should be traded, though. I see Blake as an solid, cheap, compliment to Brandon Roy in the starting lineup or if we make a move for an upgrade at the point Blake is an excellent backup (perhaps in the running for best back up PG in the league). I don’t think Bayless is ready to take on big minutes just yet and Sergio’s future is very uncertain. And in the event that Bayless makes big progress early next season Blake could be very easy to move at the trade deadline to a team hit by injuries. Also, Blake’s value is above average for us going into next season and below average for other teams making it hard to trade him for any value in return.

(I would like to announce my candidacy for the BE mock draft)

1. Sergio- He’s begging to be traded, doesn’t fit the system, and it seems Bayless or Blake will be the backup next year. Sergio is the odd man out.

2. Travis- In my opinion, he has pretty much shown us what he can do. After six years, what’s left that is an unknown? He won’t become the rebounder/defender he needs to be and I am no fan of his shot selection.

3. Sergio. I have no doubt in my mind. He will be traded and I agree with people that say the same.

1. Sergio. Obviously he is the most likely to be traded, as he is going public about his unhappiness playing for Nate. I would bet good money he is gone next year.

2. Outlaw. I think we saw Travis’s real worth in the playoffs. He is a shooter, and not much more. He doesn’t box his man out consistently which leads to second chance opportunities for the opponent, he doesn’t rotate well and gets lost in the team defensive schemes, he doesn’t attack the hoop enough, and 80% of his points are off 2 point jump shots, the least efficient way to score in the nba. I’m not hating on him, he has been a part of our success, but I think we can get more production out of those minutes than just 45% ( I think ) shooting on contested jumpshots. Travis is not going to take another big step, he has been in the league 6 years, and with the vast majority of NBA players, after that long what you see is what you get. I don’t think we can afford to keep a 6’9" player that averages 3 boards a game any longer.

3. Blake. He seems to be the new controversial player on here that is dividing people. last season it was Sergio. This season it was Trout. Now this post season Blake’s deficiencies have reared their ugly head. I hope we can keep Blake as a back up PG, he would be a nightmare off the bench, but suspect that if we do a trade to upgrade the PG spot, the other team is going to demand Blake back to fill their open spot.

First- poor el Chacho doesn’t seem to have a chance on this squad and it seems everyone has already noted that Spanish Chocolate will likely be the flavor for a different squad. However, the Blazers won’t use him in a trade that doesn’t help them regardless of what he wants.. but I think they’ll first something out

Second- I don’t want anyone traded really; I think it was a nice team. That said, there are clearly several players I’m fine with trading for the purposes of improving the team. But I won’t call out any player whose mere removal would actually improve the team, as I don’t think there are any.

Third- Rudy must remain a Blazer. I don’t care whether or not there may or may not be a long term problem with him and Roy on the same team, but I have heard enough of this to say heck no! don’t let rudy go! He has a skill set and a level of experience that doesn’t exist on this team and isn’t exactly abundant in the NBA… selling Rudy out when there isn’t a problem is very wrong..

and it’d be a lot harder for me to convince him that I’m the mujer de sus sueños if he leaves!!

1. Sergio. Because of the media, even on the internets, i’m just following the lead here i guess.
2. I don’t care who is traded outside of Roy, LMA, Oden, Rudy.
Pryzbilla, Batum, or Blake would be dumb to trade I think unless KP swung a magical deal.
3. Trout and Blake do deserve the heavy critique they will get here because of all the drop off in post season production mainly. That is why I wouldn’t care too much if they were traded, but wouldn’t mind seeing them again, in diminishing roles until the time to part is right. I’d be okay with trying out conley, but for bayless or sergio+X, not for blake, you need a contingency plan. Sergio for Barrea would give Dallas a little caproom, and gives us a similar PG in the 2nd unit but a much better finisher and 3 point shooter(i don’t think dallas would fall for that one), and I’m not opposed to going for Bass, Terry, or even Josh Howard (scores as well as outlaw but rebounds better, even on broken ankles) If we didn’t have to give up any of the big 4.

 If KP could some land someone experienced PG like Rodrigo Beaubois in the draft, or aquire some other defensive minded PG or a proven PF (A guy like Reyes as UFA possibly? ala DaniBCN), I’d be all for it.

1. Sergio Rodriguez: He isn’t happy here and still has decent value around the league. I can see Rodriguez being the piece that moves us up a couple spots in the draft since most of the teams drafting in the 20’s will be looking at backup PG’s.

2. Raef LaFrentz (S&T) This is similar to the Rudy posts. If we can pull a S&T of Raef LaFrentz, it likely means that we are adding a veteran player with a healthy contract which I am fine doing in our final potential year of free agency. If we trade LaFrentz in a S&T which puts us over the cap, we could still use the MLE to fill our need at backup PF (Bass, McDyess)

3. I think most people will say Sergio. Besides the fact that there is an intriguing player behind him in Bayless, I think after the playoffs, many Blazer fans value PG defense above PG play.

1.) Travis Outlaw: A lot of people will put Sergio here, but I’m not sure he has enough trade value. I doubt KP gives Sergio away for nothing.

2.) Travis Outlaw: How many athletic wing scorers does this league have? There are a bunch of guys who would fit this role better. Plus, I like Batum and Webster better anyway.

3.) Sergio Rdriguez: He said he wanted to leave Portland. People hate it when players say stuff like that, regardless of how cute and Spanish they may be.

1. sergio: I wanted to come up with an answer different from everyone else but there is no denying this one. Fact is Sergio wants out(so bad that even having a fellow countryman and buddy in rudy isn’t enough for him to want to stay). The team has 3.5 pg’s(blake, sergio, bayless and roy) making this position the biggest logjam on the team( sg 2, sf 2.5(travis only half plays sf), 2.5 pf(frye’s gone and again trout is half) and 2 c). Nate doesn’t trust Sergio and runs a playing style completely different to what Sergio likes to do.
 Also don’t be surprised if Shav gets moved this off season as a throw-in on a draft day deal(ala josh McBob in last years draft)

2. Travis or Blake: This comes in as a toss up for me because I feel like, at least, one has to go at each position. First off Travis. The sf position has been the topic of much discussion for a while and after this off season I feel that discussion will be all but over. We have 3 quality sf and while right now none of them are all stars, collectively they make a championship worthy rotation at that position. The only problem is you can’t play all 3. So one has to go. It seems pretty clear by the front office’s decision to not make a move for a veteran sf that they are content with what they have and if the rumors are true(that the deal breaker in most situations was nic batum) then we can clearly see that the Blazers see batum as the sf of the future(and present) of this team.

That leaves travis and Martell to duke it out for that back up position. I give martell the nod here because i believe that he will fit into the second unit better then travis will in the coming seasons. I know you must think I’m crazy because travis was the main gunner on the second unit the last 2 seasons but hear me out. Next years second unit will most likely look something like this
pg- bayless
sg-rudy
sf- travis/martell
pf-not currently on roster but probably some sort of “banger”
c- joel
with bayless being more of a scoring guard then a distributor(at this point in his career) i think it only makes sense to let him loose. The trouble with him in this role last season was that they wanted him to be sergio only with defense instead of jerryd bayless. So with him constantly slashing to the basket I think it only makes sense to surround him with shooters. So while travis is a good shooter he would not be content just camping out in the corner and nailing three’s causing him to go off dribble and shoot bad shots messing up the order of this line up, but martell has proven to be someone willing to do this on a nightly basis. You team martell up with rudy on the other wing and joel and whomever is the “banger” getting offensive rebounds up the wazzo and you have yourself a very competent offensive line up that can hold it’s own defensively too. All this leaves you travis as the 3rd sf and there fore and unhappy camper(also see odd man out). I also think that rudy will expand his game a little more allowing the second unit to still thrive if bayless is struggling by making rudy the creator and effectively replacing what travis does in this line up. So that’s why I think Travis should be dealt.

Now Blake on the other hand is in a different position. On this current roster he is without a doubt the starting pg. Nate loves him, sergio is probably gone and bayless probably isn’t ready yet. All this should point to him being one of the least likely to get traded(at his position) but I really feel like if he is going to go now is the time, and here is why.
First off, he had a pretty good year by his standards so his trade value probably can’t get any higher. There are always going to be teams that will be looking for a veteran pg and even though there are a few available(kidd, possibly nash, andre miller, mike bibby…) what do you do if you are a team that gets burned by one of them and is left with no pg? Trade for a solid back up plan like Steve Blake. The only problem is without blake who is going to play pg for the Blazer? well, i think they will either swing a trade(possibly involving blake as the interim replacement until that team finds their permanent answer) or sign one of the older pg’s available. I think that a player like kidd or miller would be perfect for this team. They play here for 2 or 3 seasons as a veteran leader(it would make the blazers immediate contenders next season). Meanwhile taking bayless under their wing teaching him how to be a successful pg, then once they are done bayless should be a well polished player ready to take the reigns and the team should have enough time let another young pg learn from the older pg and take bayless’s role in the second unit.
Lastly, I want to bring up a point that I don’t think ever gets mentioned and i think really should. Would Blake accept a back-up role at this stage in his career? I always hear how blake would make a very good back up but i just don’t see it as something he would be content doing at this point in his career. He has started for a couple teams now and i think to be demoted to back up would be a back step he wouldn’t want to take. And blake is a very competitive person and competitive people rarely take well to taking a backseat to someone else.

3. I think most people will say Sergio or travis and i would agree with them. Also some may say Rudy and i think that would be a huge mistake, because A. that leaves us very thin at sg B. His loose and creative play brings an element to this team that nobody else on this roster brings and C. I don’t ever want to see Rudy torching us in another jersey.

1st: Travis Outlaw – Travis has the most trade value. He has peaked in potential as a Blazer (not starter material here) and can be replaced with a backup PF that can defend better and make the players around him better.

2nd: Travis Outlaw - ditto above remark.

3rd: Sergio Rodriquez – I don’t think he has enough trade value with all the PG/SG players available in this years draft to be traded… unless KP/etc. just wants to dump him.

Bayless: Nate said you need 5 years to develop a PG and Bayless hasn´t shown he can shorten that process. We don´t have that time. He also duplicates what we´re looking for in a veteran PG. He has trade value.
Nobody: I like them all. I don´t want to choose one.
Sergio: He is reaching his fourth year, close to the 5 Nate said he needs. He´ll be in a contract year, so he´ll work like a mad to earn his first no-rookie contract. He fits like a glove in the second unit and doesn´t duplicate what other PGs can provide. He´s still very young and he´s always improving, he haven´t seen his ceiling. He´s a great guy, no matter if he gets angry because we don´t trade him. He won´t be a poison in the locker room.
 

Before you can rationally discuss any trades, I think you have to figure out who/what position we want to replace. I think I would pioritize our needs as:
1) a top tier pass-first point guard,
2) backup power forward who can play inside and play strong defense

Of the names I’ve seen listed for free agents none of them jump out at me as an ideal fit for 1).
I think the need for 1) is pretty clear, but I don’t see the Blazers pulling the trigger unless they can get the unexpectedly-avalable player-due-to-the-economy. The only players that come to mind that won’t require trading one of our top-three are: Devon Harris, Mike Conley, or Kurt Hinrich, Mike Bibby or Jose Calderon.

For 2) I think we need either an aging veteran (Antonio McDyess, Kurt Thomas, Joe Smith, Jeff Foster(?)) . The other possibility would be a young not-so-heralded player like Brandon Bass, Jason Maxiel (I have no idea of their availability) although their shelf life might be much more than the aging veteran because not too many rising stars are going to want to be playing behind LMA. I like the aging veteran with a draftee or Freeland to be schooled for the position.

Sergio seems like the most likely player to be traded because seems to be unhappy with his situation in Portland, and if we trade for a top tier point guard we won’t be needing 4 point guards. It will be either him or Bayless that gets traded.

I don’t really want to see any of our players traded, but it is clear that we need to make a move to fill needs 1) and 2). I wouldn’t mind keeping Frye as a 14th/15th man in the hope that he can re-invent himself as more of an inside presence ala LMA this year. The players that I think could be moved without hurting our team too much (assuming we get a real top tier point guard) are: any/all of: Frye, Sergio, Bayless, Trout. I’d only give up Martell or Rudy unless we are getting a major upgrade at point, but I don’t see that happening. CP3 and Deron Williams are out, so who would you include in this category? Rondo? Harris?

Trout and Frye seem to be the two lighting rods for most BE fans but I think most teams have bigger fish to fry than these two to get us 1). Not sure what kind of trade value Frye has although I think he could be a valuable addition on some other teams, so he must have some trade value.

1. Sergio, he doesn’t get much playing time under Nate, he wants to go, he’s cheap, so he’s easy to trade for someone else cheap, and he needs to get out of the way of Bayless.

2. Batum, he’s already hit his ceiling, we need more outside shooting (Webster) and ability to make their own shot (Outlaw) from the small forward position. Also, Rudy and Roy will need minutes at the 3, so it makes the most sense to trade away the 2nd year player with some trade value, but not much room for improvement and needs minutes on another team to develop.

3. Outlaw, He’s cheap and the lifeblood of the team. He only has one playoff series under his belt so he is primed for a breakout season. And once Batum is traded, we’ll need Outlaw at the 3, while still playing 10 minutes back up for LA.

Ruffin?

I agree on Frye and Sergio (can LaFrentz even be traded?-if so, put him on the list too-I know that would make 4 but oh well).

As I’ve said before, I hope the Blazers can find a way to keep Frye “in the family” somewhere down the road. Great personality and probably a really good color guy for TV or radio.

No trading Rudy, please.

1. Travis, because Sergio doesn’t fetch a real upgrade on his own (he goes in the package, or maybe in a separate smaller deal for a current or future first round pick). Travis is a valued commodity in any scenario, moving up in the draft or trading for a veteran thanks to his affordable contract and quality production. Several teams would like him as a sixth man who can provide instant offense. I don’t think KP really wants to give him up (also because of his good influence on team chemistry), but if I was an opposing GM I would always ask for Rudy (non-starter with KP unless for a star), Nic (about the same) and Travis. KP has to put some value into a deal if he wants to upgrade, and Travis will be a central piece of that. I doubt teams are really interested in Martell at the moment, athletic swingmen with a decent outside shot who haven’t proven much yet are – sorry Martell – a dime a dozen in the NBA. Martell could become great, but in the eyes of another team e.g. free agents Gerald Green, Matt Barnes, Stephen Graham, Marvin Williams, let alone Trevor Ariza could have just as high or higher value. Channing likely doesn’t leave in a trade but just as a free agent to a team that makes him a good offer a la James Jones.

2. Blake: He is Nate’s cuddly blanket. No doubt it’s a really nice blanket, but it could be ample time for KP to take it away for the Blazers to take the next step. As candidate 1A I want Hinrich in return for him, since Nate won’t agree to go from Blake to an inexperienced starter unless it’s clearly an awesome one and those are – duh – the hardest to get. Kirk is Blake 2.0 aka the Snuggie. He can play 1, 2 on offense and defend 1, 2, 3 (though with more fouls against taller players) and is one year younger so he fits our plans in the next three years just as well (will be 31 when his contract ends). If Bayless or another rook we bring in becomes the future starter before that, we still have a great player for the backup position. I explained here in detail how a simple one for one trade could go down http://www.blogabull.com/2009/5/15/876643/if-the-bulls-want-to-move-kirk
If the Bulls want to package other players like Tyrus Thomas in it gets more complicated but could still happen though they would probably focus on a PF upgrade instead. Another good candidate as discussed would be a draft day trade for Conley if the Grizzlies go with Rubio. Or miraculously hoping CP3 and Parker become available as some pundits insinuate (I doubt it). If Blake doesn’t go, I hope KP at least signs Andre Miller to add some new offensive tricks and we make Blake his backup.

If nothing major happens (something will on the backup big men front with 3-4 players likely leaving, but that’s more a necessity than a real change in direction) and the PG rotation stays about the same the Blazers will still continue to improve a bit thanks to Oden, Nic, Rudy developing, Martell hopefully coming back, Roy and LMA being at least as good as ever, but it will very likely be another first or second round exit. I know KP believes in letting the team and organization develop, but I don’t think all the right components are already in place. It could be a big lost opportunity to improve the team (not moving RLEC, not taking advantage of the current economic climate with the Blazers financial resources). Other teams will be taking steps forward, too.

3. Sergio will be named a lot, but I also think his time has come so no objection here. Bayless will be named with the argument he has value and is not a real point guard and can’t shoot. I don’t think KP buys into that; he invested assets to get Bayless,still sees a lot in him and is not ready to move him yet. So in that sense Bayless has more value to us than to most other teams.

In summary what is hard to predict is if we will see a cautious management who only tweaks certain spots on the bench (e.g. make the team a bit more physical) thus preserving the current setup of the team and hoping for organic development (never touch a running system). Or an aggressive management who has realized they don’t have all the right parts for the project at hand yet (e.g. a top-notch veteran, another player to facilitate the offense and aid Roy, a lockdown defensive wing, …). There are signs towards the first one (and locking up Brandon and LaMarcus for a fair price would be good moves in any scenario this summer), but KP also talked a lot about grasping the opportunity when the time is right. The window to move is between now and latest the next deadline.

1> Most likely to be traded : Bayless. There’s no good fit for B-Rex on the team. He isn’t an NBA point guard and although flashy, not quite a good enough to be a 2. He has enough potential and is still cheap enough to be able to pull the wool over some clueless GM around the league.

2> The Trail Blazer I want most to be traded : Bayless. For pretty much the same reasons. He just doesn’t fit in. At best he would become an undersized 2 with marginal shooting ability and hops, big deal, those guys are a dime a dozen. I also have some concern about Bayless’ lack of affect. Besides showing some emotion after a dunk, he is otherwise vacant and cold. I’ve seen totem poles with more passion.

3> name a Trail Blazer that you think will be named by other people : Outlaw. His worth is constantly undervalued. Not unlike a recent “bring back Rasheed” post, many fans still don’t or won’t grasp the concept of chemistry and Travis’ contribution towards the PTBs. A win now hot chocolate chip cookie mentality makes Travis an easy target for fans whose NBADD prevents them from any real long-term outlook.

Sergio will most likely be traded because if they make any deal, he can be the “throw in” that can sweeten the pot or help match salaries.

Outlaw is on my trade list not because I think he would be horrible to keep around but because he is a valuable asset that can bring something of value in return. I also choose Batum over him because he will eventually be the shut down defender the Blazers need. I wouldn’t give up Outlaw for just anything either. He has many gifts and skills the Blazers will have trouble replacing.

Blake might be mentioned a lot because the PG position seems to be the one position everyone agrees needs an upgrade and many are wavering on either Sergio or Bayless becoming that upgrade. I think Blake needs to stay. They need his steady hand and consistent 3pt shooting as they transition into a PG of the future. Or they need him coming off the bench if they make a move to obtain a veteran starter instead of guys with question marks like Sergio/Bayless if they want to challenge for a title this coming season.

1. Most likely to be traded: Rudy. He has a high value to other teams and the Blazers don’t NEED him. Love him, yes, need him, no.

2. I would trade: Przybilla. I don’t know if I’m seriously suggesting this, but I had a vision yesterday — where do other teams have a giant hole? The frontcourt. What would they want for a really good point guard? Maybe Joel. Could we replace him? Maybe, with Chris Andersen. You may start flaming me now.

3. Other people will say: Outlaw. We’ll miss him when he’s gone.

Most likely traded – I think it is really likely that Blazer-not-to-be – pick #24 in the 2009 nBa Draft is the most likely to be traded. Up or up seems to be KP’s mentality, but it would be nice to imagine that he’d take a move out of the draft if it improves the team in a real sense. For a Blazer on the current roster, I think that the prevailing thought in Sergio is clearly the most likely. As I don’t believe KP will make trades much bigger (defined as changes in the roster) than he did last summer, it feels like Sergio will finally get to become this year’s JJ1 in a small but key trade.

Most wanted trade – It’s hard to say that I want a trade and I certainly like Blake as a player around Brandon. Well.. then.. why is he my most wanted trade? Blake and Przy are clearly the most tradeable assets we have as either of these guys could improve more rosters than not. We are not ready to lose them without significant replacement, but both are clearly not the long-term answers at their positions. I love Przy’s efficiency and feel like a healthy Joel will continue to be very important through next year. Blake would be important next year, but I feel like he could also net the best replacement for himself. And while Greg still needs to prove his heir apparent status for the C; there is no heir apparent at PG – just a hope and a project. And PG is the position that will limit our ability to advance in the playoffs… so Blake is NOT actually the player I would most want to trade but he is the player I would most want to see traded, because KP will only trade him for something really worthwhile.

Least likely likely trade – Oddly enough, Outlaw easily could be my most wanted trade if I really wanted anyone traded. But I know people will say Outlaw a lot and I think he is the least likely of that group to be traded. Even though he has trade value and doesn’t fit well on this team, I just don’t think KP is going to find a deal too good to pass up on when it comes to Outlaw. He will not play from a point of weakness in a trade. Also I think the organization is going to want to see how Outlaw reacts to finally making the playoffs and then having a bad series. Given the way KP seems to run things, I just don’t feel like he’s going to try and push Outlaw out. I think they want to know if he has that one more leap to make in his game where he can be a strong enough presence on defense and rebounds (really hard to imagine i know) to warrant continuing to get backup/clutch minutes at the 3 & 4. One well-spent summer could do it, but Travis has not typically made the leaps during the summer.

Just kidding.

We made the playoffs and has a great record, but what we need more than anything are players who know how to win. A killer instinct… some players have it, some just don’t.

1. Outlaw will probably be traded. I love his attitude, dunks and seems like he’d be fun to hang out with. He is a great player, but streaky and chokes under pressure. I know, he has made a few game winners. I just don’t see him as a champion, he lacks fire.

2. Sergio. I don’t really want to break up the Spanish Connection, but he can’t be the guy running the bench. He’s not a leader at least not on this team. We either need to develop Bayless or get another pg that can handle the ball and play with bayless at 2.

3. Channing – I like Channing, He’s not there yet, but if we worked him into a regular spot, with straight forward expectations I could see him excel.

1. Sergio (although he might just return to Spain without being traded) – he’s tired of being jerked around.
2. Blake: He’s our Derek Fisher, with all the negatives that attend, and without having hit any big playoff shots.
3. Travis: his value in the clubhouse probably isn’t evident to us as much as it is to Blazer brass. Plus his value is low after his playoff damp squib.

Sergio – Even Sergio is saying he wants to go…
Travis – That time Travis lashed out at McMillan( in game 6 vs the rockets where Pryz was holding him back )left a bad taste in my mouth.
Martell- Martell had a lot that I wanted to see this last season, I think he can still do it next season.

Sergio,Outlaw,bayless+ picks in order to get the quality PG we need.I personally don,t understand the love affair some people seem to have with Hinrich,I think we need to reach higher.We don,t get much for Martell until he proves himself healthy so if he gets moved would most likely be at the trade deadline.

1. Bayless, other than travis he has the most value and we’re going to need give up percieved value

2. Bayless, he’s not what the blazers need & never will be

3. Travis, he had one bad series. Big deal Travis always take a little longer to adjust and he’s a good scorer/mismatch off the bench

He’s a journeyman who plays solid, not great, defense.

If we’re looking to move up to the next level, we HAVE to do better than that. I know it’s a relatively unproven theory, but can you imagine a new Spanish Armada, Rubio to Rudy? In my dream world, that’s a beautiful thing for the next 7 years… sigh

1) Sergio: He doesn’t want to be here, his style will never fit with Nate, and an uptempo team will probably see some value in him.
2) Sergio: For the reasons listed above. It will probably be in a package because his current value as a stand-alone trade chip is pretty low right now (even if a team loves him, they’ll want to buy low).
3) Travis: The most polarizing Blazer. Don’t look at him as a player who should be a starter, because you’ll end up being disappointed. Instead appreciate what he is – instnat offense off the bench, a good locker room guy, and a player who, as Martell returns/Batum develops, can be used for 10-15 minutes if he’s off and 20-25 when he’s on. His relative value to the Blazers is higher than it would be in any trade, imo.

1.Sergio,no brainer
2. a Hienrich deal for Travis and Blake,if they cut Blake[not that unlikely]we could resign him ala Mcdyess, if they cut Travis[less likely] he signs with Memphis.
3.we sign Felipe Reyes and he gets Travis’s minutes

1. Sergio Rodriguez: I like him, but it just wasn’t meant to be.
2. Travis Outlaw: His value will only get lower. Memphis for Conley?
3. Jerryd Bayless: We need to see what he’s really got before we deal him.

1) 11
2) 25
3) 44

1. The PTB most likely to be traded is… Travis Outlaw.

I do not believe that Travis’s tenuous performance in the playoffs was in and of itself a reason to get rid of him. I think it is entirely reasonable to say that the jury is still out on whether he cant step up effectively in a playoff atmosphere. However, given ALL of the pro/con Travis arguments we have heard in the past season, I think one thing is clear: If he is not at his ceiling, he is close to his ceiling, as far as his role within this organization goes. Given the price on his contract, that means is at the apex of his trade value. This is one of those places where investing in players is like investing in stocks, where you’re trying to evaluate how much of a future payoff you’re going to receive. As soon as the consensus is that a player has hit his ceiling, that player is no longer a “growth stock” and will only be measured by their current production. Given this, and given the low price on Travis’s current contract, I see him as being the most valuable and the most “liquid” (i.e. trade-able) of all players who are not untouchable. When you factor in his awkward fit into the long term rotation (dogfight at the 3, more productive at the 4 but not in the ways we need) and Travis becomes the most likely to be traded.

2. The PTB I most want to be traded is… Sergio Rodriguez.

Everyone thought Sergio was a no brainer for #1 because he himself wants to be traded. He certainly has good reasons for wanting this. It’s clear that he does not fit in McMillan’s system. Maybe more importantly, Sergio does not want to fit into McMillan’s system either. Please, we have to give Sergio huge props for working so hard and remaining so focused and upbeat in an environment where — on the court — he is unhappy and ill suited with the role he is expected to perform. So of course he wants to go. But as Dave himself has pointed out, this does not mean that he has a lot of trade value, and consequently means that he’s less likely to move. With all due respect to the Spanish Chocolate, I don’t think there is anybody calling up KP to ask, “Hey, what do we have to do to make a deal for Sergio?” That being said, I want Sergio to be traded for the same reasons Sergio does. I think he’ll be more productive and get more minutes on another team. I really admire him and want him to have as much success as possible, so if we can work a deal that gets us something we need and puts him somewhere that will play to his strengths… Ole!

3. The player people think will move but will most likely not is… Sergio Rodriguez.

As has already been outlined above, Sergio does not have a lot of trade value at the moment, even though he is a quality guy. Further, as has been demonstrated by the comments above me, Sergio is currently winning the straw poll for slot #1. So I think solely on the basis of this disconnect, Sergio wins by default. But I have one final wrinkle to throw into this discussion:

4. The player most likely to be traded in a package deal involving another more established Blazer is… Sergio Rodriguez.

I don’t see Sergio as being the cornerstone of any deal we would want to do. With all due respect to him, Sergio would be one of the “spare parts” of a larger deal, and a pretty tasty one at that. What would Travis, Sergio, and the #24 get us?

Sergio, because he has more value to other teams than to us.
Sergio, because he has more value to other teams than to us
Bayless, because we can afford the luxury of keeping him

1) Sergio. He is what he is, and he is not what this team needs.
2) Sergio. See 1 above.
3) Trout. I think there are more Blazer fans tired of his act then there are impressed with his development. (IMO, I think Trout is fine, he is still young, and has not reached his peak. I expect him to make a pretty big jump next season.)

I have not heard anyone talk about the following potential however. Is there any chance that the Blazers don’t go after a PG, move BRoy to the point, start Martell at SG and Batum @ 3? Thats is a LOT of size and athletecisim, and a pretty solid defensive unit. Blake can take the backup PG mins. This would not call for a huge shakeup in personell, but IMO is an upgrade.

1) Channing Frye
With plenty of DNP-CDs under his belt and desire for more playing time I believe you can expect a trade with Channing. As much I enjoy his Portland love attitude, it is near guaranteed he will traded. Sergio comes in as a close second and will also be traded but I would edge Channing because it has been speculated almost all year.

2) Travis Outlaw
I’m tired of his inconsistencies. It out weighs his clutch shots but to me, consistency is clutch. I can understand his underperformance in the Playoffs. As Roy stated, he has most likely never experienced a tournament of that level aside from High school state tournaments in Mississippi, which were more likely far less competitive. Though, I think that with 6 seasons , he should be coming into his own and blossoming and it seems as if he is not.

3) Steve Blake
I haven’t looked at any of the responses except for the one directly above mine but I think some people will mention him for their choice at question 2 because of his defensive holes which were revealed in the Playoffs. I think that some might have justification here, and it could depend on which PG we pick up this summer but I think he should stay as a backup PG. He knows the system and runs it well but because of his age, there is less likely to be growth in his flaws.

First, let’s look at the list of contracts. There are 11.
Przybilla
Oden
Aldridge
Blake
Outlaw
Webster
Roy
Bayless
Fernandez
Rodriguez
and Batum.

Outlaw and Blake are in their final contract year.

Joel, Greg, Brandon, LaMarcus aren’t going – leaving 7.
Although Portland has traded a player after a rookie season, I don’t think Nic or Rudy are leaving. 5 left.

I don’t think anyone wants to stand pat with our three at PG. I think most likely to be traded is Sergio; probably with a draft pick or two.

The player I would like to see traded is Sergio. He is just not a good fit and I don’t think the coaching staff has much confidence in him.

I think Travis will be named alot, but I think we need to keep him until the team is more sure of the Webster stuation. If we trade Travis and Webster breaks down the team is in trouble.

1) — Chacho. He’s asked for it, and Nate doesn’t like him or trust him. I thought his jumper and 3 improved this year, and he added a floater every blue moon. I actually think his trade value was higher last year or the year before. PHX was (supposedly) interested (D’Ant’ days), and there’s the consistent NYC rumor. I guess we’ll see if any of the rumblings are real. I wouldn’t be crestfallen if he’s back. I don’t tense up when he’s in there like I do when other guys are in (rhymes with “Payless”).

2) — Travis. He’s a nice kid with some great skills, but I’m done with him. We’ve had him since he was barely out of three-corner pants. Many things have improved, but I want more from the SF/undersizedPF spot. And I’m tired of clenching body parts when he gets ready to shoot, when everyone in the building knows he’s going to shoot, when he’s shooting, where he’s shooting from… Travis, you can jump out of the building, how about jumping in that painted area?

3) — Blake. I think whatever happens, he’s pretty inexpensive, and can do the the job when a lot of projects, draft guys present and future and whathaveyou aren’t there yet, an d might never be. That makes Blake more valuable to us than he might be in terms of trade value.

1, sergio—he wants out, doesnt fit the system
2. sergio—see above
3. blake—if sign a mike bibby, blake could be great off the bench

Here’s my attempt.

1) Which Blazer is most likely to be traded? Though Outlaw may be squeezed out of playing time at the small forward position, he is prominent in the locker room and doesn’t have incredible trade value around the league. The book is out on Travis, so we probably can’t expect to get a lot in return for him. That’s why I’m going to say Sergio, who has intimated he wants to leave.

2) Which Blazer do I most want to see traded? I know it sounds odd, but I would be gleeful if Rudy was traded. Why? I love Rudy’s game and personality, and would love to see him as a long-time Blazer. The reason I would love to trade him is that Pritchard would only dare move him for a bonafide star point guard. Though I love Rudy, moving him would mean an upgrade at the position at which we are weakest.

3) Which Blazer will other people single out? Probably Travis. He’s been the scapegoat all season, taking over for Jarrett Jack. Is it fair? Not really. It’s the truth, however.

1.Sergio- most likely bcuz he asked for it and he has not got the playing time he wants, which makes for an unhappy player.
2. Tuff Question( I Love My Blazers-all of them!) Travis Outlaw – mostly bcuz he has had 6 years to prove he can use his “ALL” abilities to his and the teams advantage and yet is still in the 13points 4 rebound area, thats kinda weak with his skill set.. He should average almost 20 points and 10 reb a game with his leaping ability yet he gets only 4. He has been extremely clutch in the past but most of his #’s were down this year I think. I hate to give anyone up yet I know it must be done. Sorry Travis.
3. I think people will say 1.Sergio 2.Outlaw 3.Blake.
Personally, I dont know whats right or wrong-I am not KP! But I do think if we want to win a championship, we have to get alot deeper than this 54 win team is now, which means losing somebody we dont need and gaining someone we do need. Point guard is an issue for us. Blake should stay only as back up. I also think we need a backup PF who can bang. Hopefully other teams want some of our youngins. Other teams should look to us if they want talent. We actually have more valuable tradeables (with NBA exp)
than what the Draft can offer.

GO KP! IN KP WE TRUST!

1. Sergio – he’s already basically accepted that he’s gone, and made it public. The only real case people can make for him staying is his friendship with Rudy.
2. Sergio as well for this one – I like the guy, but if they think Bayless is the future PG, they’ll give him more playing time this year, along with Blake (or whoever else we get if we decide to trade Blake…I wouldn’t be opposed to signing Andre Miller as a veteran PG). Sergio is a good player, and would be a starter or a much-used backup on another team, which would be the best situation for him, and we could probably get a decent draft-day deal with him.
3. I’m a huge Outlaw fan. On a more humorous note, I just bought his jersey a month ago and I don’t want it to be obsolete already.

1. Sergio – He wants to be gone, he doesn’t fit our system, and he has value because he is a pure point guard with oodles of potential in the right system.

2. No one. There’s noone on the Blazers that, if I heard they were traded, I would be cheering before I even heard who we got in return, and that’s what I take this question to mean. Obviously, if the right trade comes along that improves our team, then everyone is an option to be traded, Brandon included (although it would take a lot to convince me that there are trades out there for anyone but LeBron that would make the team better for now and the future while losing Brandon).

3. Trout – people are frustrated over his playoffs, I get that. Frankly, Houston was the worst possible matchup for Travis – they have excellent wing defenders, and since Trout was so obviously intimidated by Yao every time he went inside, none of them had to really respect his drive. I think it’s unfair to say that Trout is not going to be a good playoff player just because he wasn’t a good player against Houston, because they possess a unique combination of defensive talent that is very effective in containing someone like Travis. If we had played the Spurs, Dallas, Denver, New Orleans, or, really, any of the other Western Conference teams, then I feel like Travis would have had a better series.

So, playoffs aside, Travis brings another scorer who can create his own shot. That’s a rare commodity on this team – you basically have Travis and Brandon, and possibly LMA if you get him the ball in the right position. Jerryd too, except he comes with so many other problems for now that it’s tough to count on him. Maybe Martell develops into that type of player, too, by next season, or Rudy takes the next step, but I’d be loathe to let Travis go until there’s evidence of that happening. It’s like trading Jarrett Jack, where lots of people were glad he was gone because he can be frustrating to watch, except we really missed having a good defender at the point all year. Travis has a place on the court for this team, and we’ll notice it if/when he’s gone.

1) Sergio: He has all but asked out (he might have even done that). Also he probably has value to teams like New York, Golden State, or Phoenix because of his ability on the fast break.

2) Nobody: I love this team just the way it is.

3) My guesses would be Sergio and Outlaw

I’d love to see KP move up in the draft in a trade with a Golden State that also gets us a backup PF (in this case, Turiaf). Bayless isn’t a bust, but I love the potential of a Brandon Jennings or Eric Maynor or Ty Lawson.

After looking over our entire roster, I realized that we need to add more than I previously thought. We have alot of possiblities and all that I say might just be all crap so take it with a grain of salt. First, up above I said 1. Sergio 2. Outlaw 3. Blake. But now Im adding to that.

I think we need another center. Joel and Greg are great, but if one of them goes down, one guy cant do it all by himself. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Rasho Nesterovic, Kwame Brown, Jermaine O’Neal, Eddy Curry, and Mehmet Okur are all unrestricted free agents that we could go after. I say 1.Ilguaskas 2. Rasho 3.Mehmet for backup centers.

We definitely need a better PG. Steve Blake is awesome, but as a backup he would be off the charts. We need a Vet or All Star PG. I dont think Bayless is ready to run this team, but his potential is still worth keeping, even if he rides the bench. Yet I dont see him staying if we go after a Vet PG like Nash or Kidd. I also like PGs Nate Robinson, Andre Miller, and Mike Bibby who are all free agents. PG will be the toughest position to fill properly, but I would go after 1. Nash or Kidd 2. Bibby 3. Miller 4. Nate Robinson 5.Use Jerryd Bayless

Lamarcus needs a backup that can come in and play hard. There are some big names out there right now. Some are old, some are young, some are back ups and some are starters. Juwan Howard, Brandon Bass, Joe Smith, Lamar Odom, Hakim Warrick, Charlie Villanueva, David Lee, Al Harrington, Drew Gooden, Paul Milsap, and Carlos Boozer are all free agent PFs. Boozer will never happen because we need a backup not a starter. Here is my top 5 PFs to get in order- 1. Paul Milsap 2. David Lee 3. Al Harrington 4. Charlie Villanueva 5. Brandon Bass. All of these guys would play backup to LMA.

Anyways, these are my crazy ramblings. None of which is likely to come to fruition, but who knows what will happen. I just want to see our team get deeper and I know KP will get the job done. Let me know what yall think.

IN KP WE TRUST!

PS- here is a link to the free agent list if that helps.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-09-10

1. sergio- if he wants to go let him go. no need to have a player on the team who is negative.
2. outlaw- only because i was disappointed by him this season.

I was reading an article about the idea of trading sergio, outlaw, and pryzbilla for shaq. is this idea even plausible? I wouldnt want pryzbilla to go. :(

ps.- I really think a trade should be made that would benefit relieving stress off Roy. Roy carries the team, he seems to get sick easily and if he were to ever get hurt, the blazers would be in trouble.

1 Sergio
             Not happy. Don’t blame him. Wish him well.
2 Outlaw
             Has value in the league. We have developing players. KP won’t part with him without upgrading our roster at the point or backup PF.

3 Blake
             Don’t you remember how much we wished he was back when we had to start Bayless? It was painful. I don’t think he gets traded. Nate likes him, and he can really stroke the 3 ball this year. This was an integral part of the offense and spacing the floor. Nate just feels comfortable out there with him. Sorry. I know he’s not a star, but I don’t see him traded, unless for a blockbuster replacement.

As for the actual Players
1. Sergio
           He will not get his opportunity here. Next year will not make him a starter, Bayless was neck and neck with him this year. I have to believe that the Rookie going into Sophomore year would improve more then the 3rd year guy going in to his Senior year.
KP would know that Sergio was unhappy last year and if he is kept here another year without a change it would only get worse.

2. Travis
           He has improved every year
          shooting is good
          Pressure shooting is Good
           Even defense is improving
           Wait why would I trade him again, oh yeah he kills the team Offense and the team
          defense. He doesn’t have enough consistency. He doesn’t have the smarts to make the right pass at the right time.

3. Rudy
         As a player in Europe he was the star. he had a full game all over the court dunks,mid range long bombs being the focal point of their team he has had the pressure applied and come out on top. He did great shooting as rookie and his percentages were a lot better then most of the other top European talent that have come over in previous years. He is a Player that almost always makes the right play at the critical moment. He has to work on his build but he is special IMHO. I think in a few years if ROY went down like Dunkin did for the Spurs like half a season Rudy would be able to make sure our team didn’t start to fall apart

These players I mentioned above are who I think we could land from free agency. I dont really know what players are available out there via trade. Sometimes trade deals are made for players considered untouchable so its always hard to speculate unless you know a certain player is available. The free agent list is nice because it shows who is available, tradeable, restricted or unrestricted. There are alot of players who arent free agents that might be tradeable. For example: I would love to have Chris Paul be our Blazer PG, but because I doubt hes available,I dont speculate on him. Is it possible? In the NBA, anything is possible, its just also highly unlikely! LOL!! Lets hope with a combo of free agency, possible draft day trades, and trades in general we will land the right players to put us over the top.

Also to clarify what I said about needing a decent third center option. I totally agree with IsiahRiderLivedOnMyStreet
that Joel and Greg are the best 1-2 punch in the NBA. My fear is that if we were to lose one to injury again we have noone to fill that roll. I know that money could be spent other places but we just need a cheap vet banger, a mutumbo type. A guy happy to sit bench, but glad to suit up and kick butt if needed. I think next year is Gregs year. I watched some of his college games, the guy actually had a polished offensive game- im talking hook shots, short jumps, mini hooks, floaters and of course dunks.

Do you think he forgot about the holiday?

1. Sergio, much like Jack last year will be a throw in to move up in the draft. We will be moving up to add Dejaun Blair.

2. I don’t care as long as we get Dejaun Blair. I really have been done with Sergio for quite a while. Good luck Sergio!

3. There are still quite a few people who want Webster gone cause they have a < they are excited about> for Batum. I don’t completely trust Batum yet. I still remember being convinced that Khryapa was gonna be a great defender/complimentary player. I really want to keep Webster and see what he will give us. If he plays up to his potential Batum will be relegated to the bench which is where be belongs at this point. I would really like to see Webster at 30 minutes and Batum playing 20 minutes again next year.