that often is missed in the shuffle of so and so v. so and so

And not just the starting 1 but the entire rotation at 1

Sophia

I think you give Bayless too good of a chance at starting. I’d say he is around 20-25%

As long as it puts another really good defender next to Roy

Poor Steve.

This one will be 500 comments by this time tomorrow.

Good points all by the way. – Elgin

outside of Jennings and Rubio.

The bigger concern is who we get to be our starter.
I would take:
Hinrich/Bayless/The kid who plays outside my house all the time or
Conley/Bayless/Ronald McDonald
over
Blake/Bayless/Lawson

Drafting a PG might make more sense than drafting a backup 4 if we can’t get Blair, but it’s not like the third string PG spot is super important barring an injury to the starter. (And an injury to any starter makes any third string spot important, barring maybe SG/SF since we have plenty of guys who can play either.)

already leaving the bayless bandwagon? that was quick.

And I ABSOLUTELY agree that I’d rather have Brandon Bass than any PF in the draft.

But don’t you think you went just a wee bit over the top when you said:

Surely, Bayless will be in front of any rookie on the depth chart; in fact I’d give him a 40% chance of beating out Blake for the starting spot if both return.

I’m all for giving Bayless additional time to develop. The team made a substantial investment in him, and I think the jury is still out. There is plenty to like about him (agressiveness, willingness to work HARD to get better, etc.), but until he shows substantial improvement on the court, he won’t be passing Blake into the starting lineup.

Unless of course Blake is in jail for having committed physical harm to a certain un-named blog author…..as the result of the beating said blog author inflicted in the O-Live “You be the GM” feature. Then Bayless moves directly ahead of Blake.

I prefer handing the keys to a Hinrich or Conley, but I’m not opposed to drafting one of these guys for depth, particularly if we move our PGs to get our starting 1.

I agree with your points about backup PF. If the cost to get Blair is too high, it makes a lot more sense to address the backup 4 via free agency.

It’s our last offseason to make moves and I feel our only gaping hole is at point guard. We might as well upgrade while we can.

Hinrich or Conley.

How did such a thing happen?!

If we trade Blake and Sergio leaves as expected, we will start the season with Jerryd being the only point guard familiar with the offense and having any experience playing with the rest of the team. That’s a bit scary. It might take the team a while to adjust to a new starting PG, even if Jerryd somehow were to be that guy.

Larger point: A combination of factors will be working against us next season. We’ll still be one of the youngest teams in the league. Other teams won’t take us lightly. We’ll struggle to incorporate new players and we’ll miss the ones that we trade to other teams. Replacing Blake as the starter will have its ups and downs. We might be happy to get to 54 wins again.

Poor jump shot,does everything else really well and has almost Gary Payton like potential as a defender

To quote an earlier post of mine,
Let’s Try Ty
and
Lawson is Awesome
I just think his poise, his skills, are perfect for us. Not to mention he is a more mature player than most. I am liking Hinrich and Conley also, I think you nailed this whole problem.

The man-crush is over. :)

I have also been interested in this question of any other Big Men worth considering outside of DeJuan Blair? Since the draft lottery went down I have seen many a many Mock Drafts, and with Portland at #24 there has been some consistency to PF Lani Gawai, the 6’8" 235lb forward from Georgia Tech, a sophmore who averaged 15.1 Pts, 9.5 Rebs per game! Draft Express recently had an article on him that makes this kid sound like he would really fit portland as that Buck Williams type of player. Check it out: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Gani-Lawal-I-want-to-do-whatas-best-for-me-3218/

Here is an excerpt:
“For a guy who dropped double-doubles in nearly half of his games last season, Gani Lawal doesn’t show much interest in statistics. Georgia Tech’s super athletic forward will be the first to say that he doesn’t care what his numbers look like when the game clock shows zeros, just as long as he was able to contribute to a win.”

Here is his draft profile: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Gani-Lawal-1269/
What do you think?

Call Steve Kerr. I am sure you can land the #14 pick in return for $3m and Sergio

I think we’ll be able to get Darren Collison or Rodrigue Beaubois where we are. Both are long(Beaubois extremely so) and would be a good change of pace PG from what our other options will be.

Both young and have different skills, so could work together if we wanted to play small. Obviously, there is the chance that neither reaches his potential, but with their work ethic, I don’t see that happening. At worst, it will be a lateral move that will give us two young PG’s with trade value if we wanted to get a more proven older PG later on.. The only catch is that Memphis may want Bayless in return for Conley… In that case, I say no. Blake and Outlaw (or Webster?) and a pick is what I’d give.

i can’t’ see us taking any PG in this draft that high

at the 1 w/ baybay at 2
i HATE rubio.. he seems like a taller Sergio w/ a big nose. I dont like his game at all.

S

I was going to say “point guard”, and that’s probably where I’ll end up—but lets back up a step.

One half of our starting backcourt is Brandon Roy. He’s a basketball god. Unless CP3 or LeBron becomes available—Roy is our man. Ergo—we need to choose a backcourt mate for Brandon who complements him.

Roy’s strengths: Scoring in the half-court. He’s a complete package with the ball in his hands—he can take you to the hole, hit jumpers from anywhere on the floor out to the 3-point line, and find the open man if double-teamed. Roy is an excellent ball-handler and has more moves than Romeo. OK, he’s not a great post player; and he’s not all that skilled at passing to LaMarcus—but when Roy gets the ball, we’re not running a post play.

Roy’s weaknesses: He’s only an average defender—he plays decent team D and can make the big stop, but he doesn’t erase opposing guards from the game. He’s allergic to the fast break. He’s also not well-known for his off-ball game (something to work on); though with the ball in his hands most of the time, it isn’t a problem. And—he’s not a point guard in the classical sense. While a good passer, he looks to shoot and passes when that’s what the defense yields. He’s very efficient at this, so I’m not complaining—but when he runs the offense, it’s usually through himself.

Given that—the Ideal Backcourt Running Mate will have the following skills:

• Good defender; both in team defense, and one-one-one. (Given that the Blazers interior D is pretty good—with Oden, Prz, and LMA there are usually two shotblockers on the floor), help defense is probably most important—but it would benefit the team greatly to have a guy who can stick to Chris Paul, Tony Parker, and company like glue. Not stop him—you don’t stop these guys in the post-handcheck era—but make them work. Guarding quick guys is the Blazers biggest defensive problem. (Guarding scoring 4’s is probably the other; but that’s LaMarcus’ problem, not Roy).

• Good at running the break, initiating the offense, and running quick-hitting plays like passing to cutters, getting the ball to the big men. Should be a credible offensive threat with the ball in their hands (so that the defense can’t cheat off them), but that’s not a big concern. Avoiding turnovers is important.

• Good off-ball offensive player. This means more than just being able to can open 3s. This means actively trying to get open when not open; and in a position to receive a return past from Roy or the post. This also means cutting to the basket without the ball, and having good enough hands to catch passes in traffic and make a high-percentage shot.

How do our four guards besides Roy compare?

Blake gets about a C on defense, a C on running the offense, and a C on off-ball offense. He is not a good one-on-one defender, though he does a decent job of staying in front of slower guards—but guys like Brooks or Paul or Parker eat him alive. He does play decent team defense, which is why he gets the C. He’s adequate at running the half-court offense, but mainly set plays and entry passes—he seldom throws the alley-oop. He’s terrible on the fastbreak. Without the ball, Blake is a good catch-and-release shooter; but he’s not effective as a cutter, and he tends to camp out behind the line rather than trying more actively to get open. In short—an excellent backup point guard, but a below-average starter in this league. (Which may be OK—many championships have been won with guys like Derek Fischer and Steve Kerr at the point).

Rudy: He gets a C on defense, an D- on running the offense, and an A+ at off-ball. The comments concerning Blake on defense also apply to Rudy—he’s a smart heady player but not capable of slowing down many NBA opponents. The D- simply means he is not a point guard—it’s just not in his skillset. Oh, but the off-ball game! Rudy reminds me of Reggie Miller moreso than any player I have seen since Spike’s Bane retired from the NBA. And he’s just a rookie! Ahh, man-love.

Sergio: He gets a D+ on defense, an A on running the offense, and a F at off-ball. Sergio gets frequently compared to Steve Nash—unfortunately, that’s usually on defense, where he is terrible. (He’s better, but still terrible). He’s a brilliant passer and excellent on the fast break—and utterly useless without the ball in his hands.

Which brings us to Jerryd Bayless. He gets a D on defense, a D at running the offense, and a D at off-ball—he didn’t really do anything well. But, as a little-used rookie, such grades may be harsh—if one looks at his potentioal, he has the potential to be an A defender, and probably Bs at the other skills. He’s already a good man-defender, but he was completely lost on team defense (and befuddled by the speed of NBA guards); I expect mucho improvement here. Like Roy, he’s best with the ball in his hands—he had a good off-ball game at Arizona, but he hasn’t shown it in the NBA. The offense frequently stagnated when he was in at point, though he showed occasional flashes. He likes to look for his own shot—and has again shown flashes of brilliance at doing this—but this skill duplicates, rather than complements, Brandon Roy. He COULD be the guy, but he has a lot of work to do, starting with a rather difficult skill called “passing the ball”.

Bottom line: Blake is an excellent backup point guard, who can suffice (and has sufficed) in the pinch. The job is probably his by default, until someone else claims it. But in the current Blazer’s offensive scheme, we’d do better with a PG that is more active.

Rudy’s a keeper, but not paired in a backcourt with Brandon. Dwight Jaynes has speculated that Rudy may not stay in Portland very long—he’s too good to be Brandon’s backup, and can’t really play any other position. If he is happy off the bench, though, he will have a long career here.

Sergio definitely has NBA game, but this is the wrong place for him—plus he apparently wants out. He doesn’t really complement Roy well (he is dynamite paired with Rudy, other than the defense)—but I don’t expect him to be a Blazer next year.

Bayless is the interesting case. Right now, it’s all about potential, as he was rather unimpressive as a rookie. But he has athletic ability that none of the other guys possess; and if he could develop an off-ball game, he might be the guy. But he might also be the next Allen Iverson…having two take-it-to-the-hole scoring threats is one too many.

So—what current NBA players would be best suited for Portland? Ignoring obvious suggestions like Chris Paul—Rajon Rondo or Devin Harris would fit in nicely—their main weaknesses being poor outside shooting. Both can take it to the hole, but both are willing passes. Both are also top-notch defenders. Another guy who would be brilliant in Portland, and was available last summer, and is still in the playoffs—and was an All-Star this year—is Mo Williams. He may be a poor defender, but Cleveland is still a fine defensive team. Can’t complain, really. Terry Porter is another guy who would fit the bill, if we only had a time machine—like Blake, he got most of his offense off of penetration by the 2 guard. Unlike Blake, he was a good defender and brilliant on the fastbreak.

So—there’s your templates for Ideal Guard For Next To Brandon. I’m not sure we have him on the roster; though we have four fine backup guards, several of which could easily start elsewhere.

I think no, and because of that it’s time for KP to take this security blanket Blake away and force Nate to develop the young guys who can lead the team on a new level and who need the season to be ready come playoff time, or bring in a veteran upgrade to Blake. If Blake is still on the team by October, he will play over anyone we draft. Maybe even Rubio.

If Nate wants veteran leadership and KP agrees to that, the only realistic options I see are in order Hinrich, Miller and Bibby (wants to stay in ATL). Everyone else is a more or less unproven and unfinished experiment, be it Conley, Sessions, Felton or Rubio, Jennings, Maynor, Flynn, Holiday, Collison (who I think would be instantly ready as a backup but will never be a top starter), …

I am totally mortally against bringing in Nash or Kidd. Bayless leaves over your dead body? Those guys come in over mine.

I’d like to see us get Russell Westbrook… The kid can defend and he has good size for a pg and he did a good job of helping carry the Thunder.

That’s the pg I’d get all hot and bothered for.

I say my prayers before I go to bed and ask for Rubio to be drafted #3.

1) For starters, our problem at the PG is that our current guys can’t guard anyone and can’t get in the lane and create for Roy, Alrdidge, etc. We need to improve that, especially on the defensive side (we have to guard Nash, Paul, Parker, Williams, now guys like Brooks and Westbrook too)

2) Jerryd Bayless is not a PG. He is that size and is a guard, but is not a playmaker, nor is he a fantastic defender. Defense is a mindset that you either have or don’t have, and I don’t see that in him, his defense in college was suspect. He is not the solution for us there, we drafted him based on value not need

3) Picking up an old free-agent PG is not the answer. Heinrich or Conley? Nash or Kidd? Our window to be contenders is about to open, and Nash and Kidd are on the end of their careers, not to mention that they carry a hughe salary and take leadership away from Brandon. Heinrich is also very expensive, and a decent defender, but is he what we really want? Conley is not an upgrade over Lawson, Maynor, Collison, or any one of the other PGs in this year’s draft

4) I agree with Ben that we need to trade up and take a PG in the draft. WHY? It gives us a young floor leader for our title runs in the next few years, and we get them on a rookie contract (7-9 million over 3-4 years—-important when we’ll need to extend Roy, Aldirdge, Batum, and others) Trade Sergio, and let Blake start next year while the young guy is groomed so he is ready late in the season/playoffs.

Let’s be realistic, we’d have to give away the farm to trade up high enough to get Rubio (2-4), Jennings (4-7), or Curry (8-10). Who we should be targeting are PG’s after that group, in this order:

Ty Lawson
Johnny Flynn
Eric Maynor
Darren Collison

Any one of those guys gives us a scrappy defender, a PG that can penetrate to create offesne for the rest of the team (and more importantly to take some of that load off of Roy’s shoulders), and that can hit an open 3 to keep the defense honest, all while on a cheap contract and while preserving Brandon as the locker room leader. I think if we gave up Outlaw and our 24th pick, maybe 1 of our 2nd rounders we can pull that off easily

Oh Ben….you cut me deep.

The Blazers are the Clippers of point guard draft picks. Get the best player available and trade him for a point guard. Then draft Tyler Hansbrough with another pick.

He will be the steal of the draft.
We wouldn’t even have to trade up to get him

We are in agreement:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/5/14/875374/upgrading-at-the-point-guard

If Conley or Hinrich do happen to shake loose, so much the better. But I’m not convinced that’s a likely outcome.

The fundamental question here is: do you want to give up a single important asset to draft a backup 4 from college? I say no. The backup 4 question is ideally (and relatively easily, one would hope) addressed via free agency.

I wanted Blair but in taking a closer look… he is and should be a great rebounder. What else?
Blair made me think of last years version of Jason Maxiell / Carl Landry / etc. that the Blazers brought in for a try-out. What ever happened to Hendrix? Well, I checked.
Richard Hendrix was originally selected by the Warriors with the 49th selection in the 2008 NBA Draft and waived by them on 18 December, 2008 to make room for Monta Ellis.
Hendrix, 22, did not appear in any regular-season games with Golden State this season and was assigned to the Bakersfield Jam of the NBA Developmental League on November 14. In 37 games with the Jam, the 6-7 (250# – 7’3" wingspan) forward averaged 14.6 points, 11.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1 steal and 1.6 blocks in 31.5 minutes per contest. He was named to the 2009 NBDL All-Star Game on February 3, 2009.

Richard has an all around game and enough speed to play full court. He won’t cost us extra players and I think with this extra year of maturing that Hendrix would be a better fit for the Blazers than Blair.

Remember I was pushing Batum last year before the draft.

The Blazers need to get Richard Jefferson.

As has been noted before, PG for the Blazers is like the Dark Arts teacher at Hogwarts. John $%!@ Nash passed up Chris Paul for Sebastian Telfair and the position is cursed.

The curse will remain on the position until 18 years hence, when an aging David Stern pushes walker up to the podium, and announces to the assembled throng….

“With the first pick in the 2027 NBA Draft, the Portland Trail Blazers select…. Derek Deckard from the University of Idaho!”

So until then, Steve Blake is as good as its gonna get. Except for that year we find a perfect candidate, but he turns out to be a werewolf…

if only for the reason that I think Darren Collison is a better fit, and possibly a better playoff type point guard than Ty Lawson. Darren Collison’s defense is at a completely different level than Ty Lawson’s, and I think its imperative that any future point guards we bring in be able to play on both ends of the court.

Quite frankly, Ty Lawson might be among the worst defensive point guards in this draft, not that that’s an end all, but I think for us, especially if we’re trading up to get a guy, Unlike Bayless even, that also has a length problem, Lawson’s comes on top of already being too short for his position. I also think to best utilize Lawson you have to be a team that on more than just a rare occasion runs the break. If we’re not doing that enough his elite full court speed, what makes him a special player gets wasted here.

Most likely Darren Collison can be had by just sitting and waiting at #24. It actually may be possible that Lawson falls much closer to that range than anyone realizes. There are a ton of point guards in this draft, and after Rubio and Jennings IMO, they’re all in that in between range of guys. Honestly, you may as well call it the Sergio Rodriguez range. Guys that are probably going to be backup point guards in this league.

If you’re going to address the possibility of moving up in the draft I would hope it’s for a player that you expect to play minutes this year. An upgrade from Bayless (Rubio/Jennings) might do that, or for the guy that can come off the bench for LMA (Blair ONLY) would do that, but a 3rd string point guard, someone playing behind Bayless, I’m just not convinced that’s a move you expend positive assets on. This goes to an even higher degree because sitting at #24 and selecting your point guard there gets you a perfectly adequate and perhaps even a fine fit as our 3rd string PG.

I also thinks its overly optimistic to presume Bass comes here. I mean, you hope something like that happens, but you don’t plan your draft around that unlikely scenario coming to be.

My Ranking of 2009 Point Guards

Tier 1 (Franchise Changer)
1. Ricky Rubio

Tier 2 (All-Star Potential)
2. Brandon Jennings

Tier 3 (Starter Potential)
3. Jrue Holiday
4. Ty Lawson
5. Darren Collison
6. Eric Maynor
7. Stephen Curry
8. Jeff Teague

Tier 4 (Role Player)
9. Rodrigue Beaubois
10. Nick Calathes
11. Jonny Flynn
12. Pat Mills

And in order by which the Blazers should have them ranked:

1. Rubio
2. Jennings
3. Holiday
4. Collison
5. Lawson
6. Curry
7. Maynor

No one else should be drafted for this team.

You look a lot taller on BEdge than on TV.

I guess I am in the minority but I think Steve Blake has earned more respect than this. This guy works hard, has the heart of a warrior and is a great teammate. People say he gets burned by the Tony Parkers of the league…well I hate to tell you that everybody does. I think he deserves to stay and develop with this great young team. I respect your opinion Ben and think you are a very good writer but I can’t see how you can give Bayless a 40% chance of beating Steve for the starting spot???… I have doubts he’ll ever be a PG let alone a starter.

I’ve been reading this blog all year and just now decided to post. This is a very positive and knowledgable bunch and I look forward to sharing our Blazers exciting future here.

GO BLAZERS!!!

But I also think that stopping a good, quick PG is more about team defense than on ball defense. Right now I think getting a back up 4 and letting the cake bake as people say might get us to the next level. I’m just not convinced that getting a guy like Mike Bibby or even Andre Miller is the right thing to do right now.

I absolutely agree that getting another PG in the draft to compete for the job is a good idea.

Statistically, and to my eyes, the blazers are just too damn efficient offensively with blake to worry about blake’s individual defensive inadequacies at this point. I don’t give 100% credence to 82games but, the 5 man unit stat seems to make sense in demonstrating how good the offense is with blake, but the win% could be better :-).

And Dwight needs to quit wanting to trade Rudy, period. Rudy is a trueballer FTW.bookit benno :-)

 I think people are jumping to conclusions about being able to just plug in conely or hinrich as a starter or backup. Either way, it will take time to integrate a new piece into Brandon’s team. CONELY IS NOT PROVEN. Remember Channing Frye when he playing very well filling in for Pryzbilla last year? Just because you do better post all star break doesn’t make you good the next season, especially in a more controlled offense that by and large leaves a small margin of error for the PG. I’d be more willing at this point to give up blake and sergio and/or bayless for hinrich or kidd, and then draft a couple project PGs. There is always the Turkish MJ at point forward going into FA next year :-)

Everyone has their particular scapegoat for why the Blazers didn’t make it to the 2nd round: Blake, Outlaw, Rudy when he started, Nate for not playing bayless or sergio, Batum for hating us for our freedoms, etc.

What I wonder is did we really see who is going to show up in the post season next year? Or could continued team improvement lead mostly the same group of guys going even further next year? All KP says is we need to get tougher, and we are going to trade up.