Season in Statistics: Offense
We're going to begin our season review with a look at how the team did statistically compared to the rest of the league and their own performance last season. Since so much was laid at the feet of the offense this year we'll start with the offensive side of the ball. Defense, rebounding, and a couple other items will come tomorrow.
Here's the offensive breakdown. Keep in mind that the Blazers ranked 29th in the league in pace so theoretically raw numbers much higher than that are to the positive.
| Statistic | 2008-2009 | Rank | 2007-2008 | Net Change |
| Points per Game | 99.4 | 14th | 95.4 | +4.0 |
| Points in Paint* | 38.3 | 18th* | 30.8 | +7.5 |
| Fastbreak Points* | 9.0 | 29th* | 7.9 | +1.1 |
| Field Goal ATT | 79.2 | 23rd | 79.8 | -0.6 |
| Field Goal Makes | 36.8 | 16th | 35.8 | +1.0 |
| Field Goal % | 46.5% | 8th | 44.8% | +1.7% |
| Three-Point ATT | 19.0 | 12th | 17.4 | +1.6 |
| Three-Point Makes | 7.3 | 9th | 6.6 | +0.7 |
| Three-Point % | 38.4% | 4th | 37.8% | +0.6% |
| Free Throw ATT | 24.2 | 16th | 22.5 | +1.7 |
| Free Throw Makes | 18.5 | 20th | 17.2 | +1.3 |
| Free Throw % | 76.5% | 17th | 76.7% | -0.2% |
| Effective FG% | 51% | 8th | 49% | +2.0% |
| Assists | 20.3 | 19th | 21.1 | -0.8 |
| Turnovers | 12.9 | 8th | 12.1 | +0.8 |
| Off. Efficiency | 110.7 | 2nd | 104.0 | +6.7 |
*The stats with asterisks (points in paint and fastbreak points) were only available with the playoff games included, but they give you a general idea of the season progress anyway even though they're a shade off of the strict regular season comparisons. The Blazers may shade a spot higher or lower in these categories versus the rest of the league.
Several things jump out here.
The Blazers improved in nearly every category from their performance last year. The right side of the table is flooded with plus signs.
The Blazers made some astronomical leaps in certain categories. Points in the paint and offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) are the eye-popping gains but gains of 1.7% in field goal percentage and 2.0 in effective field goal percentage are also significant. Keep in mind we're talking an entire team here, not just one guy who got comfortable or saw his role increase.
The fast break numbers didn't go up much, either in raw terms or compared to the rest of the league. The Blazers are getting more makeable attempts but they're not coming on the break.
Despite the fantastic overall efficiency Portland doesn't actually rank that high in any given area amongst the rest of the league. This could be spun a couple of ways. On the one hand you could say the Blazers' multi-pronged attack is difficult for opponents to shut down entirely. You can control certain facets of the Blazers' offense but you're not going to be able to contain them everywhere for the whole game. Somethings' going to give. On the other hand you could say the Blazers' offense is decent-to-good in many areas but consistently overwhelming in none. Portland is going to get matched up with teams who have those great, near-unstoppable assets. Often great in a couple things beats out decent in everything.
Do keep in mind, though, that because of space considerations I'm separating rebounding--including offensive rebounding--from the rest of the statistics. That would be the one area offensively where Portland could lay some claim to greatness. Then again, getting manhandled by Houston in that aspect of the game may throw us back to the "Jack of all trades and master of none" line.
What jumps out to you offensively? And what do you think were the biggest offensive strengths, weaknesses, and improvements this season?
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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2ND!
is the comment after mine
From a strictly viewing standpoint, the pace and jumpshots were my least favorite thing about the season. But we did amazing, all things considered
A beard on a blind man! Too much, I say.
I kept remembering Charles Barkley's judgment
That the Blazers are a jump-shooting team and they cannot win with jump shots. Seemed too true in this series. W
Offensive rebounding and Brandon Roy made our offense great
As we learned in the playoffs, we are still going to struggle against teams that don’t have to double Roy and can limit our offensive rebounding. I didn’t expect us to struggle as badly as we did in the playoffs, but its not surprising we were limited. In a matchup like that, we need another guy who can create his own shot or set up teammates. Maybe Rudy can be that guy next year. Also, getting Oden to the point where he’s a reliable option would help a lot.
This team is going to be fantastic on offense in the coming years though.
+rebounding, -fastbreakness
that is our great strength on offense. the way we rebound is what allows us to force our pace on the other team so that we can be mediocre in all these offensive fields but be successful because we are above average when the pace is considered., but none of this is possible if we don’t control the glass so for me rebounding is the single most important thing about the offense.
Also, i know this has been said a thousand times before but a team this athletic should be much better in the fast break category, and i know the pace atributes to that but they have been many chances for them to run but they didn’t for no apparent reason besides blake’s overall inability to be effective on fast breaks.
"Howard, he know me" Rudy
are we really that athletic?
LMA, Batum and Outlaw are the only guys who strike me as particularly athletic relative to their position on our team. Well, Bayless also but he’s so, so raw.
Running would be nice, sure, but I just don’t see our team being this super athletic group that some people like to say it is.
really? u don't think this team is athletic
lma, roy, batum, outlaw, oden(for his position is very athletic), bayless all athletic for their position.
then u add in the spanish armada’s knack for the fastbreak and you have an athletic group that should dominate on the fast break
"Howard, he know me" Rudy
by phillyduck23 on May 2, 2009 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I think we're about average in athleticism for an NBA team
Oden was very athletic for a C in college/summer league, but the guy on the court for us this year didn’t look that athletic. Roy’s a very good athlete, but is primarily a halfcourt player. Rudy and Sergio are comfortable on the break, but not that athletic. I just don’t see us as all that athletic by NBA standards.
ya i see what u mean
but i still think this is an above average athletic team
"Howard, he know me" Rudy
by phillyduck23 on May 2, 2009 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions
you forget martell
"B-Roy is the best shooting guard I have played against"
-Ron Artest
If Artest can say it, so can I. Broy>Kobe.
I would disagree to an extent
Most of the Hawks are not that athletic, but the one who is stands out by leaps and bounds (Josh Smith). Joe Johnson is more like Roy (tends to be great in the half court). Marvin Williams could be, but is mostly a jump shooter ala Travis. Bibby’s best day’s are behind him. Horford is no more athletic than Aldridge. Flip Murray, Zaza and Evans are average at best.
Josh Smith is the reason the Hawks are thought of as athletic.
"I saw him in the face" Sergio's quote on the latest alley-oop to Rudy.
by blazermaniac32 on May 3, 2009 5:51 AM PDT up reply actions
My 2 cents
Offensive boards will be a trump card,Greg is going to box out lots rebounds that dont show up in his stats but not to worry ,we will rule.We have Brandon and LMA which aint chopped liver but need to use the perimeter passing skills of the Euro’s better and spend less time dribbling out the clock in isos
by southern oregon on May 2, 2009 11:10 PM PDT reply actions
Great to see our efficiency going up like that.
2nd in the league? That is a great reflection of our organization. Efficiency. No wasted moves.
Goodbye Deke. The NBA will miss Mt. Mutombo.
coach & offense system
speaking of offense, Dave, I really hope you can write a detailed review on what McMillan has done well AND not-so-well this season. Especially on his offensive system and X’s and O’s. This has become a semi-hot topic in Blazers board recently. Most common criticism are:
- He didn’t implement an offensive system
- He relies on Roy’s 1-on-1 plays most of the time. Other than that there’re also lots of 1-on-1 plays from Outlaw and Aldridge.
- Combined the above 2, therefore our offense is generally stagnant, the excellent offense efficiency number is padded by the extremely high offensive REB% and Roy’s tremendous 1-on-1 ability.
While I don’t generally agree, I do think our offense still needs improvement despite the great numbers. I am certainly intrigued to see your perspective on this topic. Of course other BEdger’s opinions are welcomed here:)
this should make for a nice read
I am no longer able to participate in this discussion due to a moderators request...
by TrentEdwardsHoF2018
Motion offense
Last year we saw a motion offense only in swinging the ball. Nate will need to implement a new wrinkle in the offense in getting players into motion. We have guys who can cut (Rudy and Batum come to mind, but Lma should do this too) and we need to stat passing to cutters. This will make getting points in the paint easier for guys not named Roy. Nate has been growing this team slowly in their offensive schemes. This years offense was much better than last years. I’d expect that next year will be that much better. In addition to having players slash to the hoop (without the ball), we should see more plays using Greg in the post, both as a low-post scorer and as a decoy to open up shots for those cutters. These two things should take our offense from that great does everything well category to having that one unstoppable weapon. How can you guard Roy if you got 3 shooters cutting to the hoop then dropping behind the 3-pt arc with Greg down on the low block giving Roy the choice of our opponents poison both inside and out.
good points
The team devoted 27% of its total minutes to rookies this year (regular season – 23% in the playoffs) and that factor alone must severely limit the offensive plays and execution.
In addition the shooters simply did not shoot well in the losses. More shooters to find the hot hand will help. Martell will be one of those. Too many minutes for Blake? Hard to shoot when you are not getting rested. All factors in Nate’s offense.
This is what struck me about the offense as well...
There are so few times that there are plays drawn up for anyone other than Roy, Aldridge or Outlaw.
To me this is understandable if you’re at the beginnig of the season and you know that really you’re only options which you have been able to rely on historically are those three, however as the season wore on there should have been a noticeable adjustment to add the role players that have come through. But I wouldn’t stop there, I think that the offense needs to make a shift in how they are approaching the end of the game. Roy is great at finishing and end of game situations, however most of the time it is Roy taking the ball up the court the whole way, waiting for a pick or a clearout and taking the opposition one on five to try and win the game. This simply doesn’t need to happen anymore!
One reason why it has is that Blake isn’t very confident on making risky passes to get the ball into someone’s hands when the defense is really stingy. He did make some growth towards the end of the season when they were playing so well and blowing out teams, but I didn’t see very many risks taken against Houston when the opportunity was there. So in order to sidestep that issue, they give the ball to Roy for the entire possession and the play is usually an iso or a draw and kick to the three point line. If Blake is going to take the next step in his growth this is the area that he needs to really make that change. It will be interesting to see if he is willing to make mistakes in order open up the offense.
Where I want to see growth this next season is in the variety of approaches on the offensive end of the floor. I’d love to see Rudy in there bringing the ball up and setting up the play. I’d love to see a drive and a drop off to Oden or LaMarcus around the basket instead of Roy having to be the punching bag for the opposing defense.
The addition of Oden, Rudy and Webster in the offensive schemes should increase the opportunities to do more than just drive and kick for a three.
Another thing I’ve seen that has worked well, but is too predictable and therefore good defenses can take away, is the tendency to swing the ball to the weakside out on the three point line. Against an average defense this works great, but against teams like Houston it fell apart because they knew it was coming. I’d love to see some changes there; perhaps a reversal or swing it to the weakside inside to Oden or LaMarcus. A few baseline drives with a pass to LaMarcus at the top of the key would be pretty too.
"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."
by Seijeff on May 3, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
great write-up
I’ve seen many comments/articles on our offensive system this season and this is one of the best. Rec this.
Positives
Dominant rebounding and low turnovers = jealous protection of the ball. This is an excellent starting point, now we can operate from a position of strength and begin to run selectively. Towards the end of the season we saw the 7 seconds or Roy offense and I really enjoyed it. We’ve got to take advantage of LMA’s mobility. I’d like to see more off ball cuts to the basket, but we’re much better than last season.
Negatives: Need a 3rd scorer who can attack the rim/get to the foul line. Maybe Bayless or Oden will help out in that area, maybe KP will go get one.
Oh, slight pet peeve, when LMA posts up on that left block, there needs to be a shooter outside the 3pt line on the same side moving from corner to angle. Make them pay for doubling! I know they are often working it like a clear out, but a same-side shooter/cutter might take advantage of LMA’s great passing.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
Offensive Efficiency is amazing
Second in the league is great. It means that above all else, even with mediocre stats in everything else, we are STILL scoring. A mediocre but efficient offense with a great defense sounds like a nice solid winning strategy to me. Simply being able to convert often when you have the ball is a GREAT building block to a solid defense. Now if only we could continue growth of defense and attack the paint more often. The one on one and jump shooting is just too…unpredictable to really lead us to a championship.
It’s a good plan from Nate, who was that type of player in the first place. While most people think we need Oden to work up his offense, I disagree. I think that he could become a great defensive center with blocks and rebounds and not score much and still be worth it. As long as we can get someone like a, I don’t know, a Jerryd Bayless on the team who plays a very strong, athletic defense to go along with Batum’s great defensive prowess as well as not being afraid to drive and drive and drive some more.
I wonder how much a Bayless would cost to get in the offseason? :)
"We Believe" - Rudy Fernandez
i'm definitely loving the offensive efficiency
like so many people, it feels like the pace could increase a bit.. more than really worrying about whatever is technically defined as fast break points – it feels necessary to see the blazers generate more field goal attempts and more free throw attempts. Of course, if you can’t do this without maintain offensive efficiency, it is not worth it. But it feels like so much of basketball always comes down to the proportion of easy points that your team can rely on. Portland is getting better but is still not generating enough of those easy points… and not by enough players consistently.
I think free throws will be the place to start. Part of it is getting more consistent post presence from Greg and LaMarcus. Then they need a second reliable penetrator to emerge who is enough of a threat to finish that he’ll get fouls like brandon – Rudy or Bayless (both would be nice) feels like the best bets here.
"Slum dunk? You just go to the rim, and crush.. crush the ball in the rim."
- Nic Batum
My own special tangent...
Has there ever been a more capable team which was more reticent than this one to take the ball to the hole? Oden is the only player on this team who seems to enjoy dunking the ball and even he tends to play under the rim more than he should.
One change I really want to see next season is more playing above the rim. More authority.
"You are never (fanatically) dedicated to something you have complete confidence in." Robert Pirsig
Need more free throws
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
Couldn't have said it better myself.
We obviously are a pretty good jump shooting team, but still I would like to see us go to the basket with a little more regularity. I suspect that we will see this number go up next year as Oden improves his quickness and we are better able to run the pick and roll with him. Or just feed him the ball on the low block. Either way I think that we’ll end up taking more free throws next year.
Can I get a headband? One for my peeps, one for the fans in the really cheap seats, one for my momma, one for the mayor, and if you wanna get down with the players, YOU GOTTA GET A HEADBAND!
yeah i noticed
no jarrett jack probably lowered our FT %, but if we had bayless out there out TOs would probably be high.
"The refs have caused a bird-pig flu pandemic"
FGAs
dipped slightly – why is this? More emphasis on ball movement? Players hoping for a higher percentage shot? Are there stats available for shot clock violations? (It seems like we force more than we commit, but that’s just my perception.)
The higher % of makes is good, but I’d like to see that in conjunction with more attempts rather than a drop off, esp. since we’re in the bottom third in attempts.
"...I'm thinking we can play for a championship sooner than people think. We can really do it." - B.Roy, 5-1-09 (via J.Quick)
let me clarify
the Blazers’ pace factor declined by a little over one. We had less possessions, and therefore less shots.
Also, our increase in free throw attempts took away from our field goal attempts. If a player is shooting free throws one more time a game, he’s probably taking one less shot.
draft dejuan blair
so we improved in everything on everything..
because… “we didn’t hold anything back”
"Awesome! Totally awesome! All right, Hamilton!"
love..
how im on blazersedge, and supposed to be paying attention in a sharepoint class. haha.
"Awesome! Totally awesome! All right, Hamilton!"
Points in the paint
That’s a phenomenal improvement. It would be interesting to see how it breaks down, but i suspect a lot of it is Roy going to the hoop, and Oden putbacks.
It’s surprising to see field goalss increase by almost one, and assists decline by the same amount. But here again, that could be Roy and Oden’s unassisted inside shots.
And as others suggest, it’s not accurate to say this team isn’t overwhelming in any category. They’re a superior rebounding team, and will get better. (PS: I’m going with Blair, the power forward. I think he’s the one good fit in the draft, and a trade and trade up could get us the high-teens spots needed to get him.)
Hulk (high school nickname; not the name you'd expect for a decent marathoner.)
One, Two and more
We have a good one two punch, but we have lots more potential that is not being used. We have LMA and BRoy that can score inside and kick it out. But when the 3’s and the jumpers are not going in which seems much too often. the opponents plugs the middle and dare us to shoot outside. We need to change our offense once in a while to confuse the opponent’s defense. More pick and rolls with Greg or Joel. Joel has proven he can hit an uncovered dunk time and time again but they don’t use him. Greg is new, but if he makes 5 out of ten dunks that is still 50%. But our mind set of the guards is to keep the ball and create which every team in the NBA knows. Our success is that they can’t stop BRoy. Now, they stop everybody else and let BRoy and LMA beat us. 50 to 70 points between them looks great, but if everybody else is 0 than we still lose the game. We need more plays to release the talent of all the other players.
hg
all these stats need to be adjusted for pace
and if they are, a lot of them look even better.
(The very slow pace is probably a conscious,strategic decision. Nate seems to prefer it this way. Given that the Blazers ended up first or second in offensive efficiency,this is difficult to criticize.)
What keeps the Blazers from being an elite team mostly occurs at the defensive end....
Team offense is definitely moving in the right direction.
Areas for improvement:
1) Low block scoring: some of this can come from LMA improving his moves and aggression. Most needs to come from Greg getting comfortable. He doesn’t need to be a 20 pt guy; he just needs to be a consistent legitimate threat that the other team has to scheme around.
2) More offensive production from the SF position. Either Martell has to come back strong with great perimeter shooting and an improved ability to get to the rim, or Nic has to develop more offensive skills. We need to be playing 5 on 5. Too often when Nic and Pryz are in the game we, are playing 3 on 5. When you get a great defensive team like Houston, they punish us by loading up on Roy and LMA. We need to increas the cost of double teams and rotations.
3) Pace. Portland has youth, depth, and a a good dose of athleticism. We need to use it. Both Blake and Roy seemed inclined towards a slower pace. How much of this is Nate, how much is habit, and how much is physical capabilities of those two guys is a little hard to determine. I think Blake is the biggest problem. He simply doesn’t have the speed to consistently pressure the opposing teams defense. The first rule of defense is to stop the ball. When you watch someone like Parker, you see that he is a constant threat to step on the gas pedal and scoot to the hoop before the defense is set. If Bayless could learn to function as a half-court distributor, and a decent spot -up shooter (the things Blake does well) perhaps he could become the answer by the end of next season. On the other hand, maybe we need to bring in a veteran PG.
I like Steve, and I realize how important his presence was to the team this year, but I don’t think he is the answer at either end of the floor. He is not good at pushing pace at the offensive end, and he is a defensive liability against the uber-quick PGs we are going to see in a lot of playoff match-ups.
by upper left corner on May 3, 2009 10:55 AM PDT reply actions
Even though, im not to fond of the nuggets..
im at work till 4, and the MAVS moneyball website is blocked for some reason, so im posting on the game thread.
any thoughts of rooting for the NW, or personally i want the mavs to win, i dunno.
"Awesome! Totally awesome! All right, Hamilton!"
I'd like to see field goal makes and % go up to 100%
That will really cut down on the other teams defensive rebounds. Of course that will mess up the team’s offensive rebounds but it will give fans something to complain about. Everyone wins.
Field goal % depends on shots taken and put backs
FG% is deceiving because it doesn’t tell the story. Joel is averaging somewhere in the 80% range, They are mostly put packs and he only shoots 3 or 4 times a game. where as someone else might shoot 5 out of ten for 50%. he gets 10 points and Joel gets 2 to 4. I’d rather have the 50% with more shots taken than the 80% with few shots taken
hg
by BBK on May 3, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I would be curious to know whether the Blazers were "streakier" than the other elite offenses in the league
I doubt if there are any sites that track standard deviation of teams’ offensive efficiency, but I would be curious as to whether the Blazers’ is higher than other teams who top ten in offensive efficiency.
When the Blazers were clicking, this year, they were unstoppable at times. But they also went through fairly regular stretches where buckets seems impossible to come by. I know to some extent that’s true of most every NBA team – every team has hot and cold runs – but it seemed more pronounced with the Blazers on both sides. Their highs were very high and yet their lows were very low.
For the most part, it had to do with ball movement. When the ball stopped moving, and teams could effectively gang up on Roy and LMA, the Blazers were typically in big trouble.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
My questions about the offense
The Blazers’ offense is highly effective when they are hitting outside shots. Their offense tends to be established from the outside-in rather than from the inside-out. This starts with Aldridge. If he hits his first couple of shots, which tend to be of the mid-range variety, it opens up his inside game and the entire offense. If not, the inside becomes packed with big bodies and the Blazers rely on their jump shooting to unpack the paint. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn’t.
So what is the solution? Or, more accurately, what are the possible solutions?
Can Oden become an inside presence that can get into the paint even if it is packed? Can Aldridge change his game from outside-in to inside-out? Can Martell and Rudy add penetration and finishing to their ability to hit the 3? Can Nate add more motion into his offense and trade the couple of inevitable extra turnovers for some chances at some easy baskets? Can Blake be effective pushing the ball up the floor to take advatage of Aldridge’s ability to beat just about anybody down the floor?
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Some of my my answers and the question I think remains:
Oden – Next year will be a huge indicator for his future. One full off-season of work on his game instead of rehabbing his knee should help him tremendously. Let’s hope he takes advantage. How can he not improve?
Aldridge – I don’t think so. I think he will keep improving but his game seems to be tied directly to the success of his outside shot. But if Oden begins to become that inside presence, he is the perfect combination for Oden. Let’s see what he looks like after another summer of weight lifting.
Rudy & Martell – Yes and No for Rudy. He will be better next year at faking the three and getting to the foul line area for short jumpers but he needs to add some muscle to finish inside on a regular basis. A big fat “I don’t know” for Martell. I hope so but I don’t know. He will at least provide another 3 pt shooter to spread the floor.
Nate – I think he is going to focus on the defense and the offense won’t see big changes. If Oden improves in the post, you will see more of the high low action with him and Aldridge. With the addition of Martell you will see more of him running around off of picks instead of just when Rudy is in the game. I don’t think Nate is willing to trade turnovers for motion/higher tempo offense. He will look for his biggest improvements on the defensive end.
Blake – He was able to do this at home during the regular season but not on the road or in the playoffs. I think he has raised his game to the level he is going to play at for a few years. Is the team satisfied with this? Is Bayless going to be able to step up next year? Will Sergio be able to supply enough of what Nate wants to be able to stay on the floor and up the tempo?
I think the hardest questions to answer are at the PG position. Oden will improve at least some. Aldridge will be at least his second half self if not better. Rudy, Martell, Batum and Outlaw all provide good things at the wing position. And Nate should be able to get more out of this group as they all improve as players with a few wrinkles here and there.
In my opinion, they are left with, “Is Blake the guy to get it done at the point?”
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Excellent job of summarizing the situation
A few thoughts on the PG situation:
I agree that the PG position is the biggest question mark for the team. No one should doubt that Blake is a good guy, a heady player, and that his contribution to the teams success has been very real. His spot up shooting, particularly in Martell’s absence, was vital to keeping opponents defenses somewhat honest and creating space for Brandon to do his thing. His poise and competent, if generally unspectacular, passing was essential to keeping the flow on offense.
However, we all know Steve’s limitations, when his shot doesn’t fall teams pack the middle and make it hard for Brandon to operate. Blake showed some improvement in being able to get to the rim and to create off the dribble, but he is not a consistent scoring threat outside of his somewhat streaky ability to hit the spot up J. Blake is mediocre at best in pushing tempo and running the break.
The picture is even more troubling at the defensive end. Steve is OK against about half the PGs in the league, but against the uber-quick guys he has real trouble. Frequently, the team has been able to cover his defensive limitations by providing lots of help. But, help comes at a cost.
Sergio is better at up tempo, but his J is not yet consistent. His passing is frequently brilliant, but his decision making is less reliable. Sergio’s defense is, at best, on par with Blake’s.
Bayless shows the most promise on defense, but is very green. His ability to develop into an adequate distributor is an open question. I suspect that Bayless will prove to be an adequate, if inconsistent, back-up next season. Whether he has it in him to become the starting PG on a championship team is a total crap shoot: the odds aren’t terrible, but it wouldn’t be prudent to bet the teams future on such a 50-50 proposition.
Looking at all this leads me to the conclusion that acquiring a new starting PG should probably be the teams highest off-season priority.
by upper left corner on May 3, 2009 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions
I have been a big Blake backer for a couple of years now...
Not in the sense that I think he is the future, but he has been one of the keys to raising the team’s level of play. He is a professional, works his butt off, can hit the three, doesn’t turn the ball over, and has steadily improved in all of these aspects of his game. I think he can be a guy that will be a consistent contributer off the bench and as a starter when needed. In other words, a role player getting about 20-25 minutes a night.
If the Blazers stick with Blake and wait for Bayless to step up into the starter role in the next year or two, I won’t be hugely disappointed. But I am also at the point where if they are talking about tweaking the roster, I have to think it is at the PG position. And if they are tweaking there, do they give up on Sergio (has to be almost a given) and Bayless (isn’t it too soon?) and keep Blake as that role player? Or do they move Blake and a SF to bring in a back-up, banger PF and sign a free agent PG?
It is going to be an interesting summer. I can’t wait to see what KP will do.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
I have been a huge advocate for Bayless
Not because I don’t appreciate what Blake brings, but because I see PG defense as the teams biggest weakness. To my eye Bayless seems to have the physical tools, the intelligence, and the intensity to become something special. On the other hand, the thing that Bayless most needs to develop is vision and decision making abilities. Those are abstract abilities and it is very difficult to predict when, or if, he will acquire these skills.
Obviously, Nate and KP have a much better understanding of Bayless’ potential for developing into a starter. If they think he can get there in the next year or year and a half with regular back-up minutes, then I think we could stand pat. If they have any real doubts about Bayless, then I think they have to put a PG at the top of the list.
Personally, I don’t see Sergio as an answer. He may ultimately develop into a better PG than Blake, but I don’t like his defense. I want someone with the strength and quickness to apply defensive pressure on the opposing point. I think on ball pressure can be very disruptive. Bayless has the strength, speed, and intensity to be disruptive. Sergio is OK as a back-up where he doesn’t have to guard CP3, Williams, Parker, etc., but I don’t think he will ever be a top level starter.
Ideally, Sergio could be packaged with other pieces for a top quality back-up 4, a top quality 3, or for a veteran PG, if KP thinks that is necessary. Blake can start next season and Bayless can be given a chance to develop as the season progresses.
I definitely do not think the team should pursue another rookie PG. We have chased the PG brass ring enough: Telfair, Jack, Sergio, Bayless. If they are not confident in Bayless, I think they should bring in another proven commodity.
by upper left corner on May 4, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions
The greatest improvement
was 3pt shooting. This created space on the floor, which allowed Roy to thrive in isolation situations. That combination/synergy was Portland’s greatest strength.
The greatness weakness has to do with personnel and coaching. No other player except Roy was able to take advantage of this synergy(I presume), so the Blazers will need to add another slashing combo guard to keep Roy fresh and create another threat.
If that doesn’t happen, the least the coaches can do run is implement sets for Roy that allow him to work off-the-ball, diversifying the offense. Cleveland did this successfully this year w/r/t Lebron to remedy last year’s 1-on-5-style offensive problems.
"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."
Offensive efficiency vs. offensive fun
I like the offensive efficiency and the effective FG%, but I want more fastbreaks, more assists, and more offensive fun.
Whether we’re one of the most athletic teams in the league or not, it kills me that we didn’t run on Houston. I’m baffled why we don’t take advantage of our strengths rather than playing super-conservative ball.
The third pass.
Pace adjusted Blah!
Maybe there is some genius in slowing the offense down. But I find it joyless. Half the time, BRoy is just dribbling the ball at the top of the key waiting to start his move. Or LMA is posting up his man. 20 feet from the basket! So, it’s not like we get better shot selection from using more of the 24. Yes, Brandon benefits by lulling the defense to sleep.
But I reckon the statistic is deceptive, because it counts the offensive rebound as a part of the same possession. So, as someone above said, the stat is a reflection of our aggressive rebounding and low turnover rate, not necessarily the effectiveness of our offensive set. These two stats, Brandon, and some good shooting, were the key to our offensive success. But to say we have the second best offense in the league is quite a stretch.
Our inability to run the break has nothing to do with atheticism, rather execution. We simply do not fill the lanes properly on the break. My guess is they do not practice this aspect of the game much if at all.
The single biggest factor in our snail pace is Brandon Roy, not Steve Blake.
While another attack the rim slasher might help, I believe our inability to get “easy shots” is because we do not pass the ball well. Our offense is conceived in terms of two players at a time. Be that the iso/kick out, the alley oop, or, when we saw it, the inside out game. It is the third pass that will revolutionize this offense. And with it bring playoff contention.
if you consider offensive rebounding and limiting turnovers part of offense, we were 2nd best
if you consider these factors to be separate from offense, we were not the 2nd best.
just add the word "statistically" at the end of the header
and I would agree with you. If only results in the real world conformed to numerical analysis!
It does raise an interesting question. Maybe Nate’s seemingly primitive offense is designed for offensive rebounding. One thing about all that control, you know when the shot’s coming. And you know if the pass is coming. Accordingly, you can plan and time your attack on the offensive glass.
Given that Nate's teams
have rarely finished much above average in Offensive Rebounding %, and we were below average last year, I feel pretty confident in saying that “Nate’s offense” has significantly less to do with our offensive rebounding than having the best offensive rebounder in the NBA playing in our second unit does.
Clarification?
Blazin’ you said, “The single biggest factor in our snail pace is Brandon Roy, not Steve Blake.”
Care to expand on this comment? To me, Blake frequently looks very tentative when he tries to push pace. Brandon doesn’t do it often, but he actually looks more comfortable in the open court.
by upper left corner on May 3, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with you that Brandon looks assured with the ball.
He just brings it up very slowly is all I’m saying. If Steve is bringing it across the timeline at 40% capacity, Brandon is at 25.
I guess when people talk about tempo, they think of the transition game. But I think of our half court offense as being slowed down too.
In the halfcourt, Steve will push, often with limited results, which is maybe what you are saying. He ends up dribbling around and coming back to where he started. But when Brandon gets the ball everything slows down until he either bursts into his drive or passes the ball.
Brandon’s game is in mixing speeds. And finishing.
Brandon seems to slow the offense down to just one opportunity at a shot
before 24 seconds expire. Brandon is indeed an all-star but the rest of the team stands around when he just slowly brings the ball up and dribbles the clock away.
In the 4th quarter, it seems that BRoy and Nate seem to try to stall out the game when there are 5 or even 10 minutes to go. Again that limits the offense to taking one shot forced by the end of the 24 second clock. Often that shot is not a good one and the possession is wasted.
It is hard to quibble with the success the team had the last 30 games of the year but it drives me nuts to watch the 24 second clock wind down and a desperation shot clanging off the rim as the shot clock expires. Usually BRoy makes a drive and is able to finish but if he cannot see his way clear to the basket he can get stuck and have to throw the ball randowmly to where he hopes a teammate may be.
Brandon is getting very good on finishing those layins — what is his percentage rate for shot at the rim?
Stu Inman: a soft-spoken, witty and brilliant basketball guy -- who had so much to do with Portland's only championship. He believed that you won with not just great players, but with great people. (D Jaynes 2-2-07 Portland Tribune)
A few more..
Points on the Break…and you have to make your free throws…Other than that steady improvement in everything will make me very happy. I do wonder what Martell in a full season would do to our 3 point percentage.
RoadBlazer
29th in fast break points is totally unacceptable.
Getting quickly downcourt and taking open shots on fastbreak situations should be a high priority. Those are easy points. We have the depth to run other teams off the floor. Nate just does not seem to believe in fast breaks and I cannot see why. Is it simply fear of turnovers? The higher field goal percentage of making easy fast break baskets should make up any turnovers. 29th means they are way behind in easy points. That makes the rest of the game tougher.
Stu Inman: a soft-spoken, witty and brilliant basketball guy -- who had so much to do with Portland's only championship. He believed that you won with not just great players, but with great people. (D Jaynes 2-2-07 Portland Tribune)
It would be interesting to see Quick interview Nate on this question
I agree with your general sentiments. A young, deep, athletic team should be pressing its advantages. The Blazers seem to play much faster at home, and were often devastating when they got into high gear. Rudy, Nic, and LMA are all gazelles. Brandon is very good in the open court when he chooses to do it. I think the problem starts between Nate’s ears and ends with Blake. If Bayless can develop into an effective PG, and that is a big if, he has the speed and aggression to change the dynamic.
by upper left corner on May 4, 2009 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions
The offense was limited with rookie minutes and shooting swings
Rookies played 27% of the total team minutes and 23% in the playoffs. The offense could not mature in this one year.
The loss of Martell was bigger than many think because he was becoming consistent and even starting to get his own shot. He can also muscle with the Battier/Artest types as well.
Figure Batum will shoot much better under pressure next year. We can afford to bench Travis on 0-9 shooting nights and still have options with Batum and Martell. Perhaps Bayless learn more than one move and get his shooting woes behind him.
Another banger who can score down low to relieve LMA and/or another shooter may be added this summer.
Working together all summer this team can take a huge jump forward next year. Are they dedicated to putting in the time this summer? My hope (and bet) is yes. We should move beyond being a jump-shooting team and run an even more efficient and consistent offense.
Hopefully Martell will recover completely
and when he does he will be a force. He was driving to the basket last year. His shot was better. Last August he was in great shape. What he year he probably would have had!
Stu Inman: a soft-spoken, witty and brilliant basketball guy -- who had so much to do with Portland's only championship. He believed that you won with not just great players, but with great people. (D Jaynes 2-2-07 Portland Tribune)
I kind of want to complain about the lack of fast break points
but it’s hard when our offensive efficiency was so stellar. Overall, we are a jump shooting team, and we’re pretty good at it. Unfortunately, resting primarly on jump shots does not usually translate to championships. I feel like we are going to have to get even more points in the point (in the halfcourt set) or run a bit more (or a certain level of both) to be able to roll out a championship caliber offense.
SOME PEOPLE ARE LIKE SLINKIES. NOT REALLY GOOD FOR ANYTHING BUT THEY BRING A SMILE TO YOUR FACE WHEN PUSHED DOWN THE STAIRS.

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