Oden's Rookie Year Rebounding
by Blaz06Draft on May 2, 2009 6:51 AM PDT
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PrintMuch of the media focus on Greg Oden has been on his difficulty staying on the court due to foul problems, and the rough edges on his offensive game. These are skills that develop over time, and he will make great strides over the next year or two.
But his rookie year rebounding exceeded even my high expectations for Greg as a 1st pick in the draft. And rebounding is much more stable from year to year. Mediocre rebounders usually stay mediocre, and don't develop into great ones. We've got something really special in Greg, and I think it's being overlooked by many who grumble about his fouls and offense.
Basketball-Reference.com has advanced stats for offensive rebounding %, defensive rebounding %, and total rebounding %. These measure the percent of all rebounds that happened while a player is on the court that were grabbed by the player in question.
Greg's rookie year numbers are sky high, and compare well with the rookie years of some of the great rebounders of all time. Look at the following table, which compares rookie year stats for some of the all time great rebounders. Old timers Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Nate Thurmond are not on the list, because their play predated these stats. They'd probably be at the top. I've sorted the list by ORB%, because ORs are less common and more important.
Player ORB% DRB% TRB%
Olajuwon 16.9% 20.4% 18.7%
Oden 15.7% 24.5% 20.0%
Rodman 15.6% 15.3% 15.5%
Moses Malone 15.5% 23.6% 19.7%
Buck Williams 13.7% 26.6% 20.1%
Shaq 13.4% 27.1% 20.6%
Barkley 12.9% 20.8% 16.9%
Dwight Howard 12.2% 22.2% 17.3%
David Robinson 11.7% 24.8% 18.5%
Duncan 10.5% 23.8% 17.6%
Garnett 9.1% 17.0% 13.1%
For offensive rebounds, Greg's rookie year is right there with Rodman and Moses Malone, and above Buck Williams and Barkley. These are considered the 4 greatest offensive rebounders of the last 35 years.
As a defensive rebounder, Greg is up there with Robinson, Duncan, and Moses Malone, and below only Shaq and Buck Willliams.
Among active players on the list, Greg's rookie year TRB% is on par with Shaq's and exceeds those of Dwight Howard, Duncan, and Garnett.
Greg's great rebounding gets masked by his playing time, which is shortened by his foul problem. As he gets his foul problem under control, I think he'll be the leagues leading rebounder.
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That is awsome
Thanks for sorting the numbers, that is encouraging to see. Buck Williams, what a great name. I wonder if when people were talking to him they always said “Buck Williams” instead of just “Buck”. “Could you pass the salt Buck Williams?” “How you doing today Buck Williams?”
Great Numbers. Next year is Huge for Oden.
bottom line
g.oden just come to camp ready to perform on the highest of levels.b.roy ‘the franchise"just put down the gauntlet.championship or bust.when your imperial leader say that big boy,that means get your 7’` butt in the gym period.also oden that means your other teammates has to man*up and be tougher.koldhe&allen wants tougher ballers to win with.thank-you b.koldhe and p.allen.
by fatty on May 2, 2009 8:30 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Whoa
where did Roy say that do you have a link?
"Death is not final," Gita says. "If any man thinks that he slays, and if another thinks that he is slain, neither knows the truth. The Eternal in man cannot kill: the Eternal in man cannot die. The soul in man is neither born nor does it die. Weapons cannot cut it; fire cannot burn it; water cannot drown it.
The Bhagavad Gita
Roy said
winning a championship is my new grind. the rest fatty just made up.
link
?
"Death is not final," Gita says. "If any man thinks that he slays, and if another thinks that he is slain, neither knows the truth. The Eternal in man cannot kill: the Eternal in man cannot die. The soul in man is neither born nor does it die. Weapons cannot cut it; fire cannot burn it; water cannot drown it.
The Bhagavad Gita
just look at
Fanshots – Behind the blazers locker room door finale
Please do not feed the B-Rex
by BRoyTheNatural on May 3, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
ODEN WILL BE ODEN
no more comparing, he is something NEW.
"Awesome! Totally awesome! All right, Hamilton!"
so what is he
do you really know,are you fantasizing what you hope he would be.
for sure he IS
One of the best rebounders the game has seen. A good to great shot blocker. As well as very proficient at drawing fouls when he gets the ball. After watching him defend Yao I would even say he is already a good defender….as a rookie that usually translates to great defender down the road.
dude
just deal with it,until proven otherwise he’s a big incomplete.until proven otherwise just live with it dude.
Encouraging
When he learns how to stay on the court and find a rhythm…watch out.
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
He'll get better
What makes Oden’s rookie numbers more encouraging is that none of these peers were coming off microfracture surgery. If Greg does nothing else but improve physically—and remember, in his rookie combine he was right behind Aaron Brook’s in his 30 yard time, and much quicker than Durant—he’ll make a major contribution. In prime condition, this is a bigger, faster, quicker, stronger and longer Kevin Durant.
It also will be interesting to see Greg attends Pete Newell’s Big Man camp. It’s not clear there are better instructors than the BMC guys.
Hulk (high school nickname; not the name you'd expect for a decent marathoner.)
- the shooting
You mean, Durant – the shooting, right? If Greg starts raining 3s, I start looking for space for all the banners.
Erik Reveno, a superb big man coach, is just up the road at UP
…the former Stanford assistant & long-tenured BMC instructor is currently in the process of turning the typically-feeble Pilots into one of the few WCC teams that can operate a half-court offense & regularly seize advantage on the boards.
The uber-convenient long-time teacher of the post game will not be the end-all mentoring answer, but he’d provide a wealth of off-season instruction if he dares introduce Oden to the UP practice mix. Yikes if I’m a UP big-man freshman.
The ingredients are present; marination is all the Blazers require.
by ObiWanKanolli on May 3, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Getting in shape and working on his moves...
I think this is the issue that for whatever reason, people didn’t seem to bring up. Oden was not in good shape at the beginning of the season. He looked overweight in the first game and plodded up and down the court. Then he sprained his ankle and missed a few weeks. I can guarentee you he didn’t get into better shape while his ankle was hurting.
Greg finally seemed to be in pretty good shape A WEEK BEFORE HE HURT HIS KNEECAP. He was practically getting a double-double every game for about 4-5 games. Then the collision with his knee occurred. Missing that time, didn’t help his conditioning.
Greg Oden is too athletic to look so unathletic at times. I think if he stays injury free, works on his offensive moves, we will see a very improved Greg Oden. I believe he’ll be so improved, people will agree he needs to be the starter on this team.
So Greg, don’t make me eat my words and look like a fool!
Can I buy you a fish sandwich?
Yeah
A healthy off season, where he can focus on learning new moves and conditioning instead of rehab, will do wonders for Greg.
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
by Sabonis4Ever on May 2, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
How he looks on offense
is also a product of where and when he gets the ball. If we want him to be comfortable with the ball in big situations he first must get the ball in average ones. Stop the plays where he is standing at the top of the three line passing the ball around the perimeter. Neither he or Joel are any good out there. Our offensive sets that aren’t isolation plays are predicated on swinging the ball around the perimeter. This generates all lot more jump shots than post ups. Going inside first and kicking the ball out will generate a lot of open looks…see Houston!
That said his complete recovery from micro should be done by beginning of next season….one can only imagine what a healthy GO will do for us
The Blazers play best when they move the ball
Nate likes his sets a bit too much. I hope they share the ball even more next year. That and BRoy are why we are such an efficient team on offense.
I totally agree
First off, I want to apologize in advance for the length of this post. I also must warn you that there is bound to be some rudimentary math and logic used, so as always, safety goggles are advisable… I call this post “The Case for Greg Oden…”
Now for some simple facts about Greg’s stats this season:
1. Greg ranks 227/444 players in shot attempts per game at 5.8
2. Of these 5.8 attempts per game 2.8 of these are self-created by offensive rebounds.
3. Greg averages 3.2 FGM per game… meaning he as a FG% of 0.56
4. He averaged 8.9 PPG (which ranks 179/444)
5. For every 5.8 FGA he goes to the line 3.7 times (or 64% of the time) which ranks 80/444
6. He is a 64% FT shooter
7. Lastly, he plays 21.5 minutes per game
Now, as a disclaimer, I’m not going to go the route of “what if Greg stayed out of foul trouble” or the “per 48 minutes” arguments. What I am talking about is merely using Greg’s 21.5 minutes on the floor more effectively. Let’s say that we get him 4.2 more offensive sets per game. This is not an unreasonable amount as I am dead certain that we can trim off at a bare minimum of 4.2 ill-advised shots from Blake, Outlaw, Frye, et al. So here is where the math comes in:
5.8 FGA/Game + 4.2 FGA/Game (the additional offensive sets) = 10 FGA/Game
10 FGA/Game * 0.56 FGM/FGA = 5.6 FGM/Game
also at 10 attempts per game he would get 6.4 free throw attempts (10FGA * 0.64FTA/FGA)
of these 6.4 free throw attempts he makes 4.1 (6.4FTA * 0.64{free throw percentage})
so that leaves us with 5.6FGM and 4.1FTM per game:
(5.6FGM/Game * 2 points/FGM) + (4.1FTM * 1 point/FTM) = 15.3 Points per Game
My point in all of this is… perhaps he hasn’t performed (as many posters from both fan bases think) as a #1 draft pick should, but maybe… just maybe it’s because Portland hasn’t used him as a #1 draft pick should be used.
Oh, yeah, and to close my argument here are some stats from Dwight Howard’s rookie season:
17.6 PPG (on 10.7 FGA/Game), 12.3 rebounds (0.34 REBS/MIN) in 36.5 minutes of play per game. Greg’s rebounds per minute… 0.33.
I think everyone here can agree that Dwight Howard has turned out okay…
by 1badbadger on May 2, 2009 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Offensively the Blazers were great
I don’t know that tinkering with the amount of touches Greg gets will actually help the Blazers.
If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer
by Clevelander among roses on May 2, 2009 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Actually our efficiency was grear on the average but
how many times when jump shots weren’t falling and perimeter players weren’t getting to the freethrow line would a post player like Oden have made a big difference if he was being used in the offense more.
It would have made a difference 7 times
And 16 games when establishing him it would have hurt our offense because he missed or turned the ball over. I did an exact video analysis, and those are my findings.
If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer
by Clevelander among roses on May 3, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Great post, I just want to add one thing
As long as we play a slow down pace, GO’s total rebounds will always be affected due to the low volume of shots in our games. So it will always be important to look at the rebounding percentages to see where he stacks up in this league.
Great Post
www.freeoden.com Coming soon
by 123_G.O._RipCity on May 2, 2009 10:45 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Kevin Love was even better in terms of rebounding
but that’s the one part of the game where Greg is really solid right now.
Love was more than that
If you add him to the list, he’s #6 in offensive rebounding, #1 in defensive rebounding, and #1 overall.
Nasty!
I floated the idea of LaMarcus for Love in a piece I wrote for my site- imagine the combo…
He's better than we think
Compare him to Amare Stoudemire as a rookie.
Greg’s almost twice as effective on the offensive glass, and 15% more effective on defense.
Greg shot .599, Amare .472.
Greg’s blocked shot percentage was 4.2, Amare’s 2.5.
Their turnovers were nearly equal; Greg had about 6% more.
Amare’s only edge was in assists; about 25% more.
Take take Amare’s numbers , and project for Greg that he will improve as much as Amare. (And keep in mind that Amare had his surgery near the start of his fourth season, which might have limited his improvement). These are Greg’s projected-on-Amare, fifth season numbers (per 36 minute games), with Dwight Howard’s per 36 this year following
FG%: .686 (Howard .572)
Points: 25.4 (20.7)
Rebounds: 11.6 (13.9)
Blocks: 2.7 (2.9)
Turnovers: 1.5 (3.1)
Fouls: 4.9 (3.4)
It’s worth noting that Amare improved dramatically in the second full season after his surgery. His assists went up 50% and his blocks over 35%, while his turnovers declined almost 50%, His fouls remained pretty consistent for all his early years; fouling wasn’t a major problem for him, ever. His difference is offensive and defensive rating went from +13 (he had been only +2 as a rookie) to +20,
Perhaps worth noting, if you use Howard’s first-to-fifth year improvement and project it to Greg:
.655 fg, 14.2 rebounds, 23 points, 2.7 blocks.
This isn’t to argue Greg will achieve these. Just to get this out please: THESE ARE MERELY PROJECTIONS, NOT PREDICTIONS.
For one thing, Portland almost certainly will look less to Greg for offense, and Greg won’t get the fast break points that Amare got, But aren’t these numbers at least worth considering when we try to project how good Gre, and our Blazers, might soon be?
Hulk (high school nickname; not the name you'd expect for a decent marathoner.)
Greg had mirco
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
by Sabonis4Ever on May 2, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
true
the question is whether he’ll be like Amare (gets back much more explosiveness in the 2nd year post-micro) or like Mashburn (never was the same athlete at all). My fingers are crossed that he recovers like Amare did.
Don't forget
Kenyon Martin who actually messed up his come back by coming back even faster then Amare. George Karl at the time thought he had ruined Kenyon’s career by asking him to come back too soon. That put back tomahawk from a step beyond the free throw line in the final game of the regular season showed he got almost all of his athleticism back.
"Death is not final," Gita says. "If any man thinks that he slays, and if another thinks that he is slain, neither knows the truth. The Eternal in man cannot kill: the Eternal in man cannot die. The soul in man is neither born nor does it die. Weapons cannot cut it; fire cannot burn it; water cannot drown it.
The Bhagavad Gita
most of the recent micro surgeries have been complete successes
My big question is who they going to bet to coach him?
Yeah, and Kenyon Martin looked DONE for a while there
He was SUPER unlucky with his injuries, and has now pretty much recovered from them. He won’t ever have the same numbers he had in Jersey, running alongside Kidd in his prime and being the secondary scorer, but he’s got (to me) hi athleticism back.
I never liked Kenyon and thought he was way overrated before, but I always feel bad for guys whose career is sidelined by injury.
Mortimer
Kidd also had microfracture, but he never relied much on athleticism yet is still going at 36
"The playoffs now are my grind. My grind for a championship,'' Roy said. "Whatever needs to be done to get there I'm gonna do it.''
I saw something on Kenyon awhile back
He was with the teams strength and conditioning coach and they were showing his pre-game regime that he has to do before EVERY game just to get his knees and legs ready to play. When asked how long he would need to keep up this pre-game preparation his reply ,“The rest of my career”.
GIve the man credit. He could have mailed it in, but through sheer will and determination he has come back and is performing at a high level.
Just imagine if Greg had that warrior attitude that Kenyon has. That would be scary.
I'm a little confused by your tactics
by oderiferous emanations 74 on May 4, 2009 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions
The things in his favor
Small injury, not load bearing, and got it done recently, as opposed to Mashburn getting it done in the dark ages of the procedure. THAT is what did in Monster Mash, Penny, and most others aside from Stockton. The technique wasn’t refined enough.
The way I see it, if the knee doesn’t give him much pain (and all reports say it doesn’t), then the knee is probably in pretty good shape and the rest of him just needs to follow. Trim down, continue to re-learn the muscle memory, and hopefully no more ticky tacky “normal-but-still-annoying” injuries.
If the knee isn’t a problem, then there isn’t really a problem. Just takes time to recover.
The other guys who were DONE after micro, were clearly done after micro. Kidd, Amare, Z-Bo, they had tough years in their first year back, did a LOT better the 2nd year, and then were back to mostly normal.
It’s hard to compare Oden at the same age of others because of the extenuating circumstances, but the raw numbers are there to provide us hope, and the past recent history of people who came back from micro is encouraging as well— especially when Oden’s surgery was not as bad as theirs and came at a younger age.
Even if he doesn’t ‘add’ athleticism, just being in shape will make him appear worlds more athletic. I think it’ll be a combo of being in shape and getting some of the ol’ athleticism back, but I know at the very least he’ll get in shape.
Mortimer
Totally agree Mortimer
those players had also established their games before they were injured. How good would say Howard have been if he had microfracture surgery prior to his rookie season.
by Odenrising on May 2, 2009 11:46 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Great work!
I’ve been aware of those numbers vaguely, but it’s awesome to see them put into context.
Now, cut down on those fouls, Greg…
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 2, 2009 12:18 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
"This is a hold up!"
“Play defense with your arms in the air, and nobody will get a whistle!”
by LaoTzu on May 2, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The perfect Oden line
15 pts
15 rebs
4 blks
60% FG
70% FT
If he can average that we will be a dynasty.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
yes
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 2, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions
yes x 2
this has been a message from: "The People's Alliance to give Greg Oden at Least a Couple of Seasons"
the great thing is that
if you think about it that is not all that far off to achieve….as long as he can stay on the court.
He averaged 14.8-11.6-1.8-56%-63.7% this year per 36 min
but he also had 6.5 fouls also.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
Thats Nate Thurmond type numbers. I think he could score about 18 and shoot about 75% FTS
The others are about right.
Nate Thurmond was an inefficient scorer, however.
In my eyes, those are more like Artis Gilmore type numbers.
I...I...
…love you. Boop!
this has been a message from: "The People's Alliance to give Greg Oden at Least a Couple of Seasons"
Oden's rebound numbers are even more impressive...
…when you factor in how good he is at boxing out the opposing big. Watch GO right before a shot goes up (especially on defense): he nearly ALWAYS finds the biggest guy in the vicinity and completely takes him out of the rebounding battle. That often results in a rebound for a teammate, not for Greg.
The real measure of GO’s rebounding ability is the improvement in the Blazers’ team rebounding numbers this past season. I don’t have that number handy (sorry), but I’ll bet it’s impressive. And as GO figures out how to stay on the floor more, those numbers should improve still more.
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
Love that you brought this up
I was more impressed with this aspect than his actual boards. When he blocks out, it’s an eclipse – no daylight. How many times did he cede rebounds to Rudy or Blake because his man was safely sealed.
I wish rebounding +/- was a common stat…
by Engineering Problem on May 2, 2009 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions
"An eclipse"
Well put! When GO blocks a guy out, he doesn’t even try for the rebound—he’s hopelessly out of the picture. That’s huge for the Blazers.
And GO’s ability to do that is more remarkable than you might think. It requires not only size, quickness, and strength. It also requires the ability to keep awareness of one’s man and the trajectory of the shot at the same time. Many bigs lack this ability.
GO may indeed be “raw” in many respects, but he’s surprisingly polished in the all-important area of rebounding.
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
Oden is the key.
Of that there is no doubt. Without his further development we cant expect to advance in the playoffs. Virtually no one believes he wont be better next year with his foul problems solved at the minimum. At max he develops enough offense to be a threat on the low block against anyone guarding him one on one. He does have a nose for getting rebounds. He already knows how to use his large body to box and cut defenders out, and has great hands, really great hands.
Not every center can catch a ball practically below his waist and slam it down as we saw in this Houston series. Its thinking about when GO puts it all together that gets you really excited. He will do really well in this league. There is only one unknown with GO which I hope he shows next year. Does he have the B-Ball IQ, ala Bill Russell who was a cerebral player, who knew the game and his opponent so well able to exploit his opponents weaknesses?
Greg Oden is the Trail Blazers most effective rebounder on the offensive glass since none other than ...
Chris Dudley!
Chris Dudley was a human foul machine his entire career also... Scary analogy.
Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...
The only area where Greg Oden and Chris Dudley are comparable to each other is rebounding.
Anyhow, Oden averaged a sizable 8.7 personal fouls per 48 minutes this season. Oden, however, wasn’t even the worst rookie in that category, for that dishonorable mention goes to Roy Hibbert of the Indiana Pacers with a whopping 10.2 fouls per 48 minutes.
In any case, though, Oden’s propensity to commit fouls will dwindle as he regains his athleticism from microfrature surgery, the referees cut him some slack as he progresses defensively, and the Portland Trail Blazers acquire a point guard who’s physically able to stay in front of his man. Oden will learn how to better defend the pick-‘n’-roll in due time, too, which’ll ease matters.
Centers have to learn to not foul PGs
You can’t defend the pick and roll if the opposing PG wants to just run to the middle. The way to stop that is to have your big man block the crap out of him. Pinning Oden’s fouls on our PGs is just silly.
Fortunately, GO doesn't shoot foul shots like CD
Just thinking about that stroke makes me squeamish.
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
Greg Oden is Edward Scissorhands
Think about it; the parallels are remarkable. Edward was raw, a babe in the woods, who desperately needed his mentor (Vincent Price) to complete him. Unfortunately Price died before completing him. (I know, Mo Lucas isn’t dead, but you get the picture.) So Edward, without real hands and a father figure, becomes this fragile, lost, and a bit downtrodden individual. Greg without his knees and athleticism experiences much the same feelings. Greg, maybe you’ll get your knees back or maybe not. So, on the other hand, Edward learns that he has a wonderful talent for sculpting animals out of bushes. In Greg’s case, like Scissorhands, he will eventually develop a special skill for defense. And so he becomes this defensive juggernaut. The question will be, “Is this enough for us?”
your post is a bust
Based on your logic, David Robinson had zero rebounds his first two seasons, yet he is in the Hall of Fame (and somehow fooled everyone into winning the rookie of the year in 1990, which was his third year on the SolGoode scale). I guess Oden, even with injury issues, is ahead of Robinson’s hall of fame career.
Dang professor
ExcuuUUUUuuuse me. Your screen must be on the ceiling, that’s the only way I can imagine your reading this with your nose so high in the air.
Life is hilarious.
Technically
Your rookie season isn’t the first one after you are drafted. No need to be foolish. So technically you are wrong.
Travis Outlaw Is Magic
http://magictrout.blogspot.com
nice spin, but...
First, Oden’s foul trouble is not a media-created issue, so don’t make exscuses. You acknowledge this with your closing statement, so I am not sure why you started your post even bringing up the media.
Until Oden is in shape, able to stay injury free and out of foul trouble, these stats are meaningless. The reason you used percentages instead of per game averages or total rebounds is because had you done so, Oden would have looked embarassingly horrible in this comparison in every statistic.
Championships are won on production, not percentages, and those players you listed were/are great players because they produce(d) on the court.
It does not take a genius to know if Oden improves and stays out of foul trouble, he will be effective.
People aren’t “grumbling” about Oden when he plays; they grumble about all the time he spends on the bench either in foul trouble or being hurt.
This isn't true
People aren’t "grumbling" about Oden when he plays; they grumble about all the time he spends on the bench either in foul trouble or being hurt.
People are calling Oden a bust based on his in game numbers.
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