Combo Guards.
by Nick Van Excellent on May 17, 2009 2:42 AM PDT
Email
PrintTom Ziller came up with this simple formula that helps approximate how "pure" a point guard is. It does NOT have anything to do with quality. Sergio is not a better point guard than Chauncy Billups, but he does spend more time setting up rather than scoring, and technically that makes him more of a traditional PG.
I wanted to get your input on how PG "purity" effects the Blazers. First, let's take a look some college numbers. (from ridiculous upside)
| LAST YEAR IN COLLEGE | |
|---|---|
| Player | PG Purity |
| Jason Kidd | 67 |
| Deron Williams | 62 |
| Chris Paul | 57 |
| Mario Chalmers | 49 |
| Steve Nash | 44 |
| Russell Westbrook | 40 |
| Baron Davis | 40 |
| Derrick Rose | 39 |
| DJ Augustin | 37 |
| Jerryd Bayless | 29 |
| Kirk Hinrich | 27 |
| OJ Mayo | 22 |
| Eric Gordon | 18 |
It's interesting to see Kirk Hinrich's name so far down that list. Clearly, he's transformed his game in the NBA, as he went from a 27 in college to a 56 in the pros. It gives hope to Bayless, who actually wasn't as low as I expected. Below is a comparison of how the Blazers stack up to other point guards in terms of purity. Roy and Rudy are included to give some perspective to people who argue that either of them could run the point full time.
| How the Blazers compare. | |
|---|---|
| Player | PG Purity |
| Jason Kidd | 97 |
| Jose Calderon | 93 |
| Steve Nash | 87 |
| Sergio Rodriguez | 83 |
| Steve Blake | 65 |
| Jameer Nelson | 61 |
| T.J Ford | 58 |
| Kirk Hinrich | 56 |
| Ramon Sessions | 55 |
| Rajon Rondo | 53 |
| Chauncey Billups | 53 |
| Mike Conley | 48 |
| Devin Harris | 48 |
| Andre Miller | 47 |
| Mo William | 45 |
| Tony Parker | 38 |
| Russle Westbrook | 38 |
| Jerryd Bayless | 38 |
| Jordan Farmar | 37 |
| Damon Jones | 37 |
| Allen Iverson | 34 |
| Louis Williams | 32 |
| Brandon Roy | 29 |
| Nate Robinson | 28 |
| Jason Terry | 27 |
| Monta Ellis | 26 |
| Rudy Fernandez | 26 |
| Leandro Barbosa | 23 |
The Blazers numbers are taken from this year, the rest are from Zillers research in 2007-2008. The most amazing thing is that Bayless has actually improved his purity since college. Being in the Tony Parker range of things is pretty good for him. You can tell that he's TRYING to be a real PG and ironically that's probably the reason that his offensive game has suffered. But hey, at least he's trying, right? There's no reason Bayless couldn't turn himself into a legit PG. He's already ahead of Monta Ellis, Lou Williams, Allen Iverson, Nate Robinson etc. Whether or not he can do it effectively has yet to be seen, but apparently the rumors of Bayless being a selfish player are greatly exaggerated. This is not an endorsement of Bayless in any way, but it is encouraging.
The bad news is that a backcourt of Roy and Rudy looks like it might be a disaster. Both of them are shooting guards, and although Roy can run the point effectively for stretches, he's just not going to cut it as the teams full time distributor.
Thoughts? Comments? Input?
75 comments
|
15 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Nice post
Rec.
Cue fatty rant in 5…4…3…2…1
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
Pardon me for blaspheming, but how bad would it be if Roy was the 2nd best player on our team? Not likely? sure. Welcomed? Absolutely. The weight of this team must hang heavy on him at times, but he bears it well. He always seemed to be accepting of his role, as a quiet and humble leader.
I would like to see Bayless live up to the hype that Team Bayless and myself have boastfully asserted to this rookie SG/PG. But, in order for that to happen, it may be that Portland has to change its identity a bit. And growing pains would be a result. We would become a faster team. An attacking team. In return, we would give up efficiency. I suppose a team with one of the highest efficiencies in the league could stand to lose a little.
I think the Cap’n’ Kirk Camp would say that efficiency with Heinrich would go up or stay the same ( I haven’t looked at the stats, but that hasn’t been pointed out as a glaring weakness yet.) Personally, I wouldn’t change team chemistry for a Blake-in-Heinrich’s clothing. Well, I really don’t know how he’d do, but I bet we’d be disappointed, as pointed out in anti-rubio cautionary draft comments in past fanposts.
I want an All-star for a point guard. And they aren’t on the market. I’d rather keep Blake and develop Rex so he can devour those that suggested to trade him “while his value was high”. I see him as becoming one of the best point guards in the league, but it will take a couple years, and require him taking the reins from Roy for a good chunk of time. I think Roy would hand them over willingly, but I’m not sure about some blazer fans.
I think you make some god points.
Roy needs someone who can create for him for a change. Blake gets most of his points off open looks, and teams don’t respect Sergio’s shot enough not to sag off him. Just like Mo Williams in Cleveland, I think a penetrating PG would do wonders for this team.
It interesting though, Hinrich really changed his game from a straight 2 guard in college to a legit PG in the NBA. Do you think maybe that makes him a better mentor for Bayless, who is going through the same sort of transition?
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 17, 2009 4:13 AM PDT up reply actions
It would be nice to have that perspective for Bayless, but as a hypothetical, would he improve more if Heinrich talked him through it, or CP3 showed him? I guess it’s a moot point, but also a philosophical question that pops into my head at this late/early hour.
I’m reluctant to bring in new starters since we had so much success this year. I kinda think I’m overstating Blake’s role though. If we make that move, i’d like a strong upgrade or no move at all. Blake, though he has his weaknesses, works so well with this crew .
I fear change, like everyone else to some degree. And I’m not sold on Heinrich. But if he could be a mentor for Bayless, then I’m more optimistic about bringing him in. Unfortunately, I gotta see more of this guys game before I can give an honest opninion
by hobbyshop_hero on May 17, 2009 4:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Williams can create his shot, but he creates his own jump shot.
Like Blake, roughly 88% of his attempts were jump shots. The difference is the percent of made baskets that were assisted. Hinrich has a similar 89% of his attempts being jump shots. Again, the difference is that a larger amount were unassisted (71% for Blake were assisted, 56% for Hinrich).
The best comparison for Mo is Jason Terry
who played PG once upon a time for Atlanta. both guys are fairly similar to Blake, just superior at literally everything, except not giving the ball up, which is a little unfair, since they’re asked to do much more than Steve, even with Lebron and Dirk on their teams.
He’s basically the exact same player that was considered overpaid in Milwaukee, but his strengths line up perfectly with playing alongside Lebron (as do Delonte’s, but in a different way), so all of a sudden he gets to be an all star this year, despite basically being a very good role player.
Similarly to how Mo Williams was a perfect match next to LeBron James, Kirk Hinrich is ...
a guy who’d fit well playing alongside Brandon Roy. As it is, Roy’s two main weaknesses are laziness on defense and mediocre three-point shooting; conversely, those are two of Hinrich’s strongest assets. Hinrich is also a solid ball handler, playmaker, and distributor of the rock — as well as pretty much equal to Steve Blake in those categories — therefore, Roy shouldn’t’ve have too difficult of a time transitioning to playing with him if he arrived in Portland.
Plus Hinrich is a heady tough player
I would say he is better and getting into the key than Blake as well. I really think Blake looks good BECAUSE he plays with Roy. So the effect would work for Hinrich as well …yes?
Roy’s two main weaknesses are laziness on defense and mediocre three-point shooting
Roy shot 38% in the regular season and 47% in the playoffs. That’s a pretty damn good three point shooter if you ask me. He’s a tad bit better than Kobe, who shot 35% from the three point line this year. As far as super-star shooting guards go, Roy is at the top of his class.
3 point percentage
Roy: 38%
Kobe: 35%
Lebron: 35%
Wade: 32%
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 17, 2009 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Roy's 3 pt percentage
will likely increase as he gets more shots of another players dribble penetration. Too much is he required to create MOST of his own shots. I wouldn’t say his defense is lazy..I think he has to save a lot of energy for the offensive end of things.
Yes, I was too hard on Brandon Roy over his shooting percentages from downtown.
Roy isn’t a 40% shooting from beyond the arc, though, which is the line that seperates mediocrity and greatness in my book. You, however, are still right that Roy matches up well against his peers in that regard.
Regardless, Kirk Hinrich would be the perfect match beside Brandon Roy on defense alone. Defense is Roy’s most glaring weakness, without a doubt.
Yes and yes.
I think there’s a good chance that Hinrich is a Blazer next season.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 17, 2009 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions
It seems like our best chance
was to get him for RLEC. Isn’t that what we’re essentially doing now? Only we have to give up a real basketball player this time.
Yellow Mamba FTW!
Can't we do a sign and trade with Raef
give him a big one year contract… creating another RLEC?
it was a clear black night, a clear white moon
by In Walks Rudy on May 18, 2009 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions
His 3 pt shot
is better then Lebron, Paul or Kobe. Aldready
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 18, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Hardly
40% is the separation point between guys who are primary offensive options and guys who get to shoot wide open threes from looks off of catch and shoots from those guys. There are a couple notable exceptions to this rule (Nash, Granger, Allen), but if you look at Ray’s tenure in Seattle, which is the only time he had to be his team’s primary creator, he was only over 40% one year. Given that Ray is considered probably the best three point shooter in NBA history, I think it’s a little unreasonable to expect Roy to shoot over much better from three.
Does anyone actually believe that Blake or Ron Artest are better shooters than Kobe, because the stats say they are. It’s just impossible to shoot that well when a good portion of your shots are contested or off the dribble, which the 3 point “leaders” almost never do.
Exactly
That’s why guys like Morey in Houston (and probably KP) admittedly track different stats for open and contested threes.
There’s a big difference between Brandon having to take contested threes off the dribble and Blake taking four seconds to measure the wind patterns before launching one up (because there are no defenders within 15 feet).
Shooting 38% from three for a guy with Brandon’s usage rate and slashing ability is really strong.
Is there a player in the league who attacks the basket like Brandon and shoots as well from deep? Nowitzki, maybe? But he’s not really in Brandon’s league attacking the bucket.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
Yeah, Kirk Hinrich is superior to Steve Blake with creating his own shot and drawing contact ...
when he does drive to the hoop — which is noted by that rate of assisted jump shot attempts and, moreover, Hinrich’s rate of drawing a foul on 6.1% of his shot attempts compared to Blake’s puny number of 2.3% — thus, there’s no doubt that the “Captain” would bring a much more varied skill set to the table on offense to go along with his superb defense.
Good stuff
Hinrich’s not your classic penetrate and dish PG, but this category (as well as improved perimenter defense) will help justify paying him twice what Blake’s making
The real trouble is going to be putting a deal together that will pry KH away from the Bulls, now that RLEC has expired. Why KP didn’t pull the trigger and acquire Kirk back in February (while Blake was hurt, etc) is beyond me
Why he would pay a PG 10 million dollars a season
when the guy is only a slight upgrade over Blake is beyond me. – Elgin
VENTURA: It's drowning. It gives you the complete sensation that you are drowning. It is no good, because you -- I'll put it to you this way, you give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders.
he's not a slight upgrade
he’s a massive upgrade on D (did you see him effectively guard Rondo, Pierce and Allen in the playoffs? very few players could play D on 3 excellent, extremely different players like that) and a minor upgrade on O.
Snake is describing basically the worst case scenario
Which is, big upgrade on D, slight upgrade on O.
It’s also possible that the captain would be a massive upgrade on defense AND offense. His slashing ability is far superior. It’s impossible to know how much better he would fare in Portland, taking wide open threes, than in Chicago, where he plays with one of the most selfish two guards in the league and/or a rookie point guard still learning how to distribute.
Imagine Blake on a team that really relied on him to create and distribute, rather than just hit open shots. Are you picturing a lottery team? I thought so.
When the Blazers offense breaks down, and Roy is tired, and LMA’s not hitting, you know things are going to end badly because you KNOW Blake can’t consistently create open looks. Hinrich is different. He CAN create shots. I think he could have a big positive impact on the offense, as well as the D.
And it’s been discussed at length, but a point guard with the flexibility and skill to adequately D up the likes of Rondo AND Pierce AND Wade cannot be overvalued. It would be a massive, massive upgrade to the Blazers entire defense.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
Imagine Blake on a team that really relied on him to create and distribute, rather than just hit open shots
No need to “imagine” that
Even on that team,
Blake took the 5th most shots, only about 1/3 the number of shots Z-Bo took and just over half of what Dixon did (almost vomited typing that and looking at the stats). Not exactly comparable to the role that Brandon/Kobe/Wade play. As much as I hate to admit it, that team would probably have struggled to win 10 games sans Z-Bo and forcing Blake to do even more than he already did do.
IIRC Hinrich's contract = 17-18 mil for the next 2 seasons
Kirk made 10 mil this year, but that $ goes down incrementally for the next 2 years
(That’s still double what Blake will likely earn, but it’s not 10 mil, either)
*good points
“god” points might be different.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 17, 2009 7:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Mo Williams is a spot-up shooting off guard rather than a penetrating point guard, which is why ...
the backcourt duo of him and Delonte West work so magnficantly with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Heck, with LeBron James’ one weakness being his so-so three-point shooting, it benefits him a lot to play beside two guys who can shoot it roughly 40% from beyond the arc.
Agreed people always say that the Cavs are just LeBron and that Kobe has a supporting cast but that is dumb.
The Cavs are built perfectly for LeBron. Every starter can hit jumpers. Williams and West can penetrate. Verejao and Big Z can play some down low or step back and clear the lane for LeBron.
We saw what Nate did with a PG who didn't fit the system
“you just got Sergio’d”
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 17, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Nate and Brandon, joined at the hip?
There was a fanshot re: how Roy had one of the best seasons of all time at not turning the ball over, while still being incredibly productive. I think the lack of turnovers part is most important to McMillian, which is why he prefers Blake, as well. For Nate to take the ball out of Brandon’s hands, especially at crunch time, and put it into the hands of a “more risky” playmaker is just about as unlikely a scenario as I can imagine
If Roy was ever the second best player on the team...
I would bet a grand on that team to win it all. His skill set and lack of an ego would make him one of the best ever No. 2 on a team. The only thing is I doubt the Blazers will ever get anyone more talented than Roy without giving up Roy.
This is interesting
but all it does is give the people that believe Bayless should be a starter more reasons to think so… not a lot of us see Bayless ever developing into even a pass first PG, its his scoring ability which is interesting.
And as for Roy not beeing a pure PG, im sure nobody assumed he ever was or would be a pure PG.. it would be a waste of his talent to be anything other than what he is. But I believe that his game is so well rounded that we are capable of playing him at the 1 and 3 as well. He has excellent decision making skills, combined with Rudy’s passing skills, we get a pretty good distributing backcourt.
Again...
this has nothing to do with quality. Bayless has been inefficient in pretty much everything he’s done so far in the NBA. The only thing this tells me, is that Bayless is trying to fit into the offense as more than just a scorer, which is exactly what we want him to do. Bayless has been bad this year in part because he’s trying so hard to get better. It’s taken him out of his comfort zone, but I think in the long run it’s a good thing that he’s trying to pass more and score a little less. In no way is this an endorsement of Bayless as the future PG for this team. I’m just not sure the Blazers have enough time to wait for him to develop.
I like Roy running the offense in spurts, but it just doesn’t work full. In the playoffs the ball movement was pretty terrible for the most part, especially when Rudy and Roy were in the backcourt with Blake and Sergio on the bench. Too many isolation plays. Too much standing around. Almost zero entry passes into the post. It just didn’t work.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 17, 2009 7:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Why do you want a pass first PG?
I don’t understand the whole “pass first” point of view.
If we have a PG who is not a scoring threat, that just makes it easier for teams to double on Roy. Having a PG who is a constant threat to penetrate will put a lot of pressure on the opposing teams defense. When the defense collapses to give help it opens up lots of opportunities.
Roy’s career will last longer if we had a scoring PG who can set him up for spot up and pull-up Js off of penetration. It would be nice to see Brandon laying on the floor less often after taking it to the rim.
We need a scoring PG who knows: when to score, when to dish, and how to use the threat of their scoring to create opportunities for their teammates.
by upper left corner on May 17, 2009 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Thank you upper left Corner!
You saved me a post. Perfectly said and could not be more rue and a key to the( FRANCHISE! ) the Blazers will become not what they will be just next year or in the first ruound next year. I hear all this trading and aquiring players and it drives me nuts Nate will build theis team. In Portland were a little impatient and want to WIN I get that but I see thoe Rip City ays coming back soon with what we have leave it the HELL alone
This gives the lie to the whole "PGs are born not bred" school of thought.
Thank you for injecting some analysis into our frequently circular discussions about PG play. Rec’d.
Theoretically, it makes sense for the Blazers to have a PG who can score. Brandon is the teams best offensive player, and he often needs the ball in his hands. If our PG is not a threat to score, teams have an easier time doubling Roy. This is particularly true when we are playing Nic at the 3. Nic greatly improves our defense and takes a lot of defensive pressure of of Roy, but he is not a significant scoring threat at this point in his career. The Blazers can not afford to have two of our three perimeter players standing around watching Brandon try to take it to the whole while the entire opposition sags to the middle.
Blake is a threat to score from the outside. You leave him unguarded at the three point line and he will make you pay. But Blake can’t create off the dribble and can’t get to the rim with any frequency. Sergio can’t score with enough consistency to keep teams honest. That is why he is such a lousy fit with Brandon, and why another “pure point” is exactly the wrong type of player for the team to pursue.
Again, I think it is logical to assert that we need a PG who can score. What we don’t need is a PG who is selfish. A PG with an exceptionally high usage rate would likely reduce the teams efficiency by taking too many shots from Brandon, LMA, and Oden. IMHO, Bayless is not a ball hog. He is trying to figure out when to score and when to dish. If you watch him closely, you can almost see the gears grinding in his head. He is trying too hard, which has greatly affected his shooting, and he is thinking too much, which is affecting his decision making. He needs to relax and gain a little confidence.
Nothing will likely help him more than consistent minutes. We know that his spring is wound very tight. He wants it so bad, it is surprising that he doesn’t just spontaneously combust and burst into flames. A guy like that needs to know that he is going to get minutes and have the confidence that missing the next shot is going to cause him to loose his spot in the rotation. Nate needs to take the pressure off.
If I were betting, I would be willing to wager that a year or two of back-up minutes will be enough for Bayless to be ready to start and be effective with Roy. If we can get someone like Hinrich at a reasonable price I will be all for it. Bayless’ game is so different than Blake’s, Blake is not a very good model for Bayless. Hinrich would be somewhat better, and his defense would help the team greatly in the short run. Miller is another logical candidate. He is a penetrating/scoring guard who knows how to run a team. He might be a good mentor for Bayless. But Miller can’t shoot, is 32, and he may be too expensive.
If we can’t get a decent upgrade at a decent price, let Blake run the show until Bayless proves he is ready.
A guy with Bayless’ physical skills, winning attitude, and world class work ethic is a good bet for success.
by upper left corner on May 17, 2009 8:31 AM PDT reply actions 6 recs
nicely done
my thoughts almost exactly.
My take on the what we should do is keep Blake, groom Bayless until he can start post ASG, trade Sergio for a first, draft/buy pick for Collison as an injury backup, simple yet effective.
From the end of the season, until the FA period will be Bayless’ biggest chance to make an impact on his future standing on the team. However hard he works in becoming better, will be the sole determiner on whether KP makes a move for a PG this offseason.
To me, Hinrich is too much $ for a slight upgrade that will still not help against smaller PGs. He still is not an upgrade from Blake penetration/shot creating wise. Bibby and Kidd have stated that they want to re-sign with their respective teams, leaving only Miller as an obtainable option. While Miller is a decent choice, he has never been a winner, does not have a good 3pt shot, is old and should still demand a decent salary, meaning more than Blake.
We need to set it up so that Bayless is in the best position to succeed, he has the talent and work ethic do be a great player, but with many players, it takes the right situation to succeed, much like Billups, Nash, or Jermaine O’Neal. Getting an older PG to come in and make us better in the short run will be to the detriment of Bayless’ development. We had success with Blake and barring injuries, we should be at least as good next year at PG as this year.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
by SpyderRyder on May 17, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure I agree with the "an older point guard would be to Jerryd's detriment"
There was that great article on Chauncey Billups last week on ESPN.com, and it wasn’t until he played behind the veteran Terrell Brandon at Minnesota and apprenticed behind him that he finally “got it”.
I agree that bringing in a youngish point guard to start over Bayless probably wouldn’t work since there would be little incentive for the starter to mentor him, and Bayless would probably get the impression he wasn’t in the long term plans, but if a guy like Andre Miller who’s 33 could come in and help groom him (assuming Bayless wants to be groomed) then I think there’s a better than average chance that Bayless could grow into the role of a backup and when the time comes in a couple of years move into a starter’s role, with Miller hanging around as the wise old veteran that can give you fifteen minutes a night.
I suppose that is true,
but I see Miller being able to hold off Bayless off longer than Blake, meaning that over the next 2-3 years, if Miller is here, Bayless will get 5-8 fewer mpg than if Blake is here.
That was more what I was implying.
Miller would not want to sign here for less than 4-5 years as this will be his last chance to get a big paycheck so he will want to get amap. Blake’s contract will be finished at the end of this year, and based on the development of Bayless, we could be on the hook for less $ than if we dropped Blake and are locked into Miller and a longer term contract.
I suppose that some people will say “Paul Allen will pay whatever it takes” and yeah he has shown a propensity to pay a lot but with Roy, and LMAs extensions kicking in and Odens on the horizon, not to mention Nic, Rudy and Bayless all wanting to get paid after that, being locked into a 4-6yr $25-40m contract for a backup PG in Miller would not be as prudent as it once would of been. If Miller wants to sign a 2yr/$16m deal then go for it, but I do not see him doing that due to the reasons stated above.
Like I said, KP will have his eye on Bayless from now until the draft, checking in on him and figuring out if JB can be the future Blazers PG.
If there is no deal on a PG by the 14th of July, to me, it seems that KP has decided that Bayless IS worth going through any growing pains that he will go through and he should be starting by the ASG.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
The money point is well taken
I think the days of “uncle Paul” shelling out 100+ million a year for a team are way behind us (and probably for the better anyway since it absolutely hamstrings you if you want to make moves).
The kind of contract Miller will be able to command with the current economy and relatively few teams under the cap, (and some of those teams like Memphis notoriously cheap) makes you wonder what will be out there for him. If I was KP I certainly wouldn’t break the bank to get him and I wonder if offering him a 4 year deal worth 28 million with de-escalating pay year over year and a team option on the fourth year would entice him? Of course a sign and trade with Blake (and more?) going to Philly would need to be done in order to get everything to fit under the cap.
I like Miller but I would be shocked if he’s able to sustain a really high level of play for more than 2 years, conversely I also think it’s going to take Jerryd awhile (a year and half minimum) to get to the point where he can run a team (if ever).
All I know is that something has to give at either the point guard or small forward spot moving into the next season; this team is desperate for one more player who can reliably create their own shot aside from Brandon (Outlaw doesn’t really count).
yeah
I am just not sure about Miller. I can see him as an upgrade in some ways but he would hurt the outside shooting compares to Blake and hopefully Bayless, I just can’t seehim not getting that in the league. I tend to think that a Blake/Bayless combo could work well, much like the Blake/Jack combo did a few years ago, Blake starts as a token then Bayless comes in and plays.Blake/Jack just about split the mins both registering about 28-29/g
I have been writing this for the past PG posts in my case for Bayless
If you look at Bayless’ #s in the 10 games where he played 20+ mins, he averaged
26.3min
46.8%fg
18%3pt
11pts
3.5ast
1.4to
2.1reb
All of this as a rookie on a 54 win team. When I say there will be rough patches, I suspect that most of them will be ironed out by Xmas.
If you look back it will be much like 2 years ago when Jack was running the point. He came in off the bench and then in the 4th Q as well. If you look at Jacks career production and the production of top 11 PG/SG picks over the last 10 years, their #s are identical is given similar playing time, meaning that if Bayless would of gotten 30mpg as Jack did when he was here, Bayless, as a rookie, would have been expected to produce similar #s as Jack in his 4th year. Of course Nate wanted to win now and Sergio was the better PG at the time so he got the nod good or bad.
Now that Sergio seems to be on his way out, the minutes freed up by him will go to Bayless and I expect him to produce at a higher rate than Jack did in his tenure here.
History backs it up that PG/SGs with that much talent, do well in the league, almost every one of the players you had mentioned about getting were top 11 draft picks and look what they have become.
Sophomores always take enormous leaps the next year, and the player I think that Bayless will be most like is Stuckey. They both averaged similar per 36#s as rookies, the only difference is that the pistons are older than us and getting fresh legs in the game does more than our young legs. He played almost 2x the mpg(19 to 12) and his development shows. Look at his stats as a starter this year:
31.9m
13.4p
4.9a
3.5r
2.2to
are very achievable #s for Bayless.
Blake can get us to the door, and Bayless can knock it down, THIS SEASON.
As for the SF position I am in the camp that we groom Bayless so that he will be the other shot creator and leave the SF role as is. Get as many mins possible for Rudy and Nic, throw the scraps to Webster or Travis. They are the last of the WhitPatterNash selections and I am not sure if they have what it takes anymore. Travis is not a SF anyways, and people are over calculating what Webster would of done in the regular season from the PRE-season take-um-out-to-the-woodshed-beat-down of, oh yeah, the WORST team in the league.
People are all like “He didnt miss from 2pt land and scored 15p in 26m!!” OK he was still only 1-4 from 3 in that game and is 1-5 all season. I just think that if he would of had it he would of showed us something more than just a 3rd Q against the j*zz by now.
As for Travis I understand what he is and what he does, but does that lead to championships? I am not so sure. I was once a supporter of him but I am not so sure he has that drive to be great. In addition, people talk about “Lets get a banger!!” Well if we get one and Travis is still here, he will become the new Channing, as Travis pulled a lot of the PG2 mins and considering there will only be about 10 of those to begin with if we keep Travis the new PF will get none of those. Any signing/trade/draft to bring in a banger will have to lead to either
A) a full time posting of Travis @ SF and trading Webster(most likely) Batum or Rudy (not likely at all)
B) the trading of Travis to free up PF2 mins and leaving Webster, Nic and Rudy to battle out for the 48 SF mins.
My pref would be
PG: Blake 20/Bayless 28/Collison~1
SG: Roy 18/Rudy 30
SF: Nic 28/Roy 16/Webster 4
PF: LMA 35/(McDyess/Powe/Blair) 13/Freeland `1
C: Oden 30/Pryz 18
I just think we have to get Nic and Rudy mins as they are arguably better than either Webster and Travis in only their 1st years. Yes I know that Rudy is older than Webster, but Martell was supposed to have an NBA ready body and jumpshot and it has produced him never shooting over 40% from 3 and not decreasing his per minute stats.
Sorry if I got a little long winded there.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
by SpyderRyder on May 17, 2009 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Great stats
I, too, tend to look at Bayless as someone we won’t see the best of until his minutes increase. At that point, some evaluation can be done as to whether or not he’s the ‘PG of the future’ or not – but he needs time on the court.
After all, everyone seems to rave about Westbrook and what a great rookie season he had. And he did – but people seem to forget that he started off shooting horribly. In his first 8 games, for example, he posted shooting games of 2 for 7, 1 for 8, 1 for 10 and 3 for 19. 4 horrible shooting games out of 8 – and he was nothing spectacular in the other 4 either (all below 50% from the field). But by midseason, he was playing much better and continued to improve.
Even so, Westbrook shot 39.8% from the field and 27.1% from behind the arc for the season. Is that really that much better than Bayless’ 36.5% and 25.9%? Especially considering what SpyderRyder points out – when Jerryd got minutes, his offensive efficiency was much better?
This is not meant to put Westbrook down, but it is intended to make a case that Jerryd needs development time.
it is just idiotic to compare
rookie PGs, hell even PGs in general if they do not get consistent minutes. You just cannot have them looking over their shoulders after every bad pass they throw, every time they get stripped, or lose the ball out of bounds. The fact that they handle the ball 70-80% of the time puts such a bright light on them, you have to go through some growing pains as with everything in life.
I am not a fan at comparing anyone, at an position if they play under 15mpg.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
hey, we all know that judging players based on limited rookie minutes is a good idea. Chauncey Billups and Gary Payton were excellent in their first few years…
Oh, wait. They were both awful. Look at Payton’s rookie stats. Yikes. Not much improvement to his second year, either.
draft rodrigue beaubois
This myth is so boring
Would you go look up the numbers that Billups had in his rookie year. Too lazy? Fine I will.
THEY ARE GOOD.
BILLUPS HAD A GOOD ROOKIE YEAR.
This is not up for debate. By rookie standards, Chauncey was a good player.
As for Payton. 7, 6.4, 3, and 2 steals a game in under 30 minutes is bad? Say what now?
6.4 assists
3 rebound
2 steals
almost 3:1 assist/turnover ratio.
Explain to me how in any world these are bad numbers in 27mpg? Pretty much the ONLY thing Payton didn’t do his rookie year was score a ton of points, although even then his per 36 numbers are almost at 10.
Was he Gary Payton the All-Star? Not a chance, but he was also a rookie. Any rookie who can play 27mpg and almost have a 3:1 a/t ratio while playing good D, getting steals, and even grabbing a few rebounds is havinga GOOD year, not a bad one.
As for Chauncey, he averaged 11 and 4 with over a steal a game in 27 minutes. Although he did had just over 2 turnovers a game. Not All-Star caliber stats, but pretty good for a rookie season. (Better than Rudy’s numbers, albeit with worse shooting.) In his second year the scoring moved up to 14ppg. The ONLY reason people think that Billups was a late bloomer was because he got hurt in his second year, basically missed his third year, and was still pretty ineffective his fourth. Once he got healthy again, his normal progression continued.
Basically, quit bringing up the myth that Billups and Payton were failures their rookie years just because they weren’t Roselike.
PPG is misleading
Using per game stats to argue that somebody had a good rookie year makes no sense. I’m not saying you’re wrong, necessarily, but what does it tell anybody that Chauncey scored 11 ppg his rookie year?
In and of itself, sure, that’s not necessarily bad. It wasn’t necessarily bad when Adam Morrison scored 14 ppg or whatever his rookie season.
But the point is, if they’re doing it at 38% shooting, or whatever, that’s still TERRIBLE. When they’re shooting those percentages, every shot they take is absolutely killing their team, and the only reason they’re scoring 11 ppg or more is that their team is bad and lets them shoot.
You can’t brush aside shooting percentage like it doesn’t mean anything and focus on antiquated per game stats that mean nothing, and then criticize Cab for citing a “myth.” It’s a myth that scoring 11 ppg means anything. THAT’s a myth.
Billups had a bad rookie season – really bad.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
Allen
Will be willing to pay the luxury tax to keep our team together long term when championships flow like water through the rose city.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 18, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
You've put your finger on it
The Blazers would be best served with a point guard who can penetrate to force a double team and competently pass out of it, or score at a high percentage when the double doesn’t come or comes too late. This would take a lot of pressure off Brandon Roy to force doubles which create scoring opportunities. It would be a bonus if this point guard can also hit open shots when defenses collapse on other scorers in the offense.
Bayless has demonstrated he can penetrate, now he just needs to show he can make the pass and hit the open shot. Clearly he has the desire to be that player. We’ll see if he can execute.
Born not bred
Has anyone bothered to mention that EVERY player increased his purity rating from college to the NBA except for Westbrook, who dropped by 2 points and is a rookie.
Kidd 67 to 97 +30
Nash 44 to 87 +43
Hinrich 27 to 56 +20
Westbrook 40 to 38 -2
Bayless 29 to 38 +9
No one else that I saw is listed on both lists. (Paul/Deron?) Regardless, the college and NBA games are OBVIOUSLY different, which causes all of these guys purity ratings to go up.
The biggest difference no doubt being that in college these guys are all the best on their teams and can score on their own with relative ease. In the NBA, you actually need your teammates and you actually have to be a real PG.
in college these guys are all the best on their teams and can score on their own with relative ease
That goes double for summer league (ref. Bayless 30ppg in 2008)
The more interesting thing to see
Would be looking at Nash/Kidd/Hinrich year to year in the NBA. Were they +9 improvements their rookie years or did they instantly shoot up to the numbers they are at now?
Also, was Hinrich higher than a 56 before this year. I didn’t watch the Bulls a ton, but I have to believe that they ran Rose/Hinrich together at times, which would turn Hinrich into more of a shooting guard. I’d bet good money that he was higher than a 56 last year.
I don’t think it matters if Bayless becomes a pure point guard or not. Brandon Roy’s incredible playmaking ability allows the team to trot out any type of offensive guard alongside him.
I just want to see Bayless increase his scoring efficiency and his jumpshooting marksmanship. If Bayless can become a Mo Williams type, an 18ppg 4apg, he’ll be a brilliant piece of the puzzle … even if he never becomes a good passer/playmaker/floor general.
I want Bayless to work on his scoring and shooting this offseason.
if the combo guard
are roy kobe wade type of guys yes,but guys like damon l.head no.the height plays a big part into it.a.i. is a special case.the best player in this generation i’ved seen in person by the way wa a.i.
The positive thing about having roy and bayless in at the same time as said above,
is the PG purity doesn’t matter as much when you have enough guys in the game that are
A) good iso players (we hope oden, bayless, rudy, and batum will only get better off the dribble, Roy, LMA, Travis being the guys Nate generally isos so far)
B) willing passers (Brandon is good, but LMA really needs to develop his passing out of the post, It’s not his fault that there aren’t many cutters to the basket but I’d like to see more high low plays involving the bigs passing, and the wings cutting to the basket)
I guess all I’m trying to say is you look at a team like Utah (when successful) they are always the leaders in assists because of their system, not because of a pure point guard that the team relies upon to make plays or dribble through the teeth of the defense before making the right pass.
So, perhaps Nate and the coaching staff should implement more plays involving a motion offense, it’s not like you have to give up the roy or aldridge isos, but you have to have a contingency plan for when pounding the ball inside doesn’t work for roy, lma, or even oden as we’ve seen. Bayless’ ability to drive will help, but only time on floor will make him more comfortable driving and dishing, most blazer fans have had enough of watching their guys develop on their dime, but you know what? Too bad. The team has a long way to go to we’ll have to see more awkward growing for a couple more seasons i’m afraid.
so again, more set plays that get everyone involved is the way to go, unless i’m way off base, which wouldn’t be the first time :-)
"The problem with tweeners is that sometimes they’re exactly what you need to plug the hole and sometimes they are the hole."
-LaughingJon
I think that most
teams are successful when they move the ball, but ut has had 2 domineering PGs with Williams and Stockton who both have averaged over 10 apg.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
by SpyderRyder on May 17, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Thank you
The bad news is that a backcourt of Roy and Rudy looks like it might be a disaster. Both of them are shooting guards, and although Roy can run the point effectively for stretches, he’s just not going to cut it as the teams full time distributor.
Couldn’t have said it better myself. Not to mention their perimeter defense would be porous, if not putrid
Any idea where Sessions falls on the PG purity scale?
Ramon Sessions...
was a 55 this year. Somewhere in the Hinrich, Rondo, range of things.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 17, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Great Post Nick...
I like a purer point guard myself. That is part of the reason I have felt like Blake is a good fit here despite some one on one defensive shortcomings. It was Fantastic to see a numeric breakdown of what that means. Honestly, Not sure HOW I feel about it. I guess I still feel like with all the firepower we have a pass first guy is crucial. That said, Houston showed how desperately SOMEWhERE in the sets we need a guy who can get to the rim and get his own 8 foot or less shot. ( not including Broy ).
Great stuff to chew on during the down days of July.
RoadBlazer with a Rec
"Good, bad, niether?"
They’re kind of a combination of both…
"The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over."
Strange thing I always found is that in order to have a productive assist, it has to set up a shot
that would otherwise have been improbable – - draw and dish…cut and dish…something that produces a high percentage shot…
but PRODUCING a high qualty shot on your own without the risk of a pass and a catch..the points are…the point, right? If your “point” guard can bust to the rim and finish, and you run down the court after a super high percentage 2 … good result from the possession…as long as everyone gets their touches throughout the game…
I read a comment on how JB should work on his ability to score during the offseason…the other half of you want him to develop court vision so he can pass to someone else and they can score…so do both well is the “point”..? Learn to score better in the off season…hmmm like 26 in summer league w/the MVP…soo then we can say he’s a ball hog? You wonder why he was perplexed into some tight play…
:
Best comments realize that: he’s thinking too much … and that you really only get over rookie probs by playing…watching helps VERRRRRRRY little…
So free Bayless. . . he will pass plenty enough…and score a bunch too…and draw fouls…and run breaks… would have loved to watch him have more of an opportunity this year esp when there was no energy on the floor… He deserves SOME definitive role…
""Look. I can touch the rim on my tippy toes.. " – Greg Oden
Team Bayless has stayed strong. I fully expect Jerryd to be a very good player in 2-3 years.
draft rodrigue beaubois
I want to drive him to the All-Star game =D
""Look. I can touch the rim on my tippy toes.. " – Greg Oden
We can't wait that long!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The window opened a year early and now that means it will close a year early. We need him to be at championship level now!!!!!!!!! If he is not, then we will have to replace him with someone with even less NBA experience. Larry Bird is not walking through that door.
;-o
I could see Bayless and Roy emerging as a Porter/Drexler-type backcourt, with Bayless being slightly more athletic and getting to the rim more than Porter did, while Roy is slightly less athletic than Clyde and takes more (quality) midrange shots.
It all depends on Bayless though, and whether or not he can develop the confidence in his jump shot and distribute as needed.
MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)
by The Cactus Leaguer on May 17, 2009 8:00 PM PDT reply actions
YES that's possible but
Bayless is way raw … Porter took 3 years to really get it and he played 4 yrs of college. We need a guard to get us that 2-3 yrs.
True. Also, Porter came really close to making the Olympic Team in 1984 while he was still in college, and his “classic” PG skills were obvious within a year or two in the NBA. The analogy for me is that Porter didn’t really play much PG until he was a pro (I think he actually played some center in college IIRC).
But the key takeaway is whether or not we have time to wait for Bayless to turn into the kind of PG we need to make a championship run.
MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)
by The Cactus Leaguer on May 17, 2009 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions
I was surprised to see
that Porter played 79 games and 1200 minutes in his rookie season (the incumbent starting PG was Valentine, who was limited to 24 games because of injury. Steve Colter took over as starter)
Not everybody gets the same opportunity to shine as a rookie. I expect Bayless will get more PT next year, but that will depend on who is the starting PG, Blake or a newcomer?
Great angle...
Nice find on the Ziller research. This a very progressive way of evaluating the point guard spot… and I think it goes a long way in debunking the idea that Brandon Roy should be the full time point guard. Could he play full time point? Well, I’m sure he could because of his tremendous basketball i.q…. but it completely changes the kind of player he is. As well, Rudy is not going to be any kind of solution at the point. These are the “go-to” guys on the roster, who need a pure point like Blake or Sergio (not that I’m saying they are long term solutions) to be the table setter.
If Bayless can find a way to incorporate the pure point guard mentality into his game, he could be the man at the point for Portland. However, I remain very skeptical that this can be accomplished.
Thanks.
Yeah, I think Roy could play the point. Just like Monta Ellis, Jason Terry, or Allen Iverson can technically run an offense. It’s still not an ideal situation though.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 17, 2009 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Days of NBA Lives: Wherein Roy Hibbert tap-dances to Maine
- Grizzlies Valentine’s Day cards are the key to love
- Kevin Love would like the NBA to take the MLB’s approach on All-Star games
- Kobe Bryant fires a few hilarious salvos at Jeremy Lin
- Brandon Jennings states the obvious regarding his 2014 free agency, everyone goes nuts
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
