The Season in Review: Sergio Rodriguez
by Dave on May 16, 2009 1:37 AM PDT
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PrintThis weekend we look at the last of our point guards, Sergio Rodriguez. Undoubtedly the hottest topic of the 2007-08 season, Sergio has almost been "back-burnered" in both excitement and controversy by the arrival of Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless. The comparatively limp response to his play and his prospects with the team have masked a relatively decent season for him. This could be a more interesting discussion than it appears at first blush.
If you haven't read the conversation rules for these threads, please take a look before commenting. As is standard with the point guards, we'll remind you that this is a Sergio Rodriguez thread, not an "I hate Sergio because I heart Bayless" thread.
Sergio Rodriguez 2008-09 stats:
|
Statistic |
2008-2009 |
2007-2008 |
Net Change |
|
Games Played |
80 |
72 |
+8 |
|
Games Started |
13 |
0 |
+13 |
|
Minutes per Game |
15.3 |
8.7 |
+6.6 |
|
Points per Game |
4.5 |
2.5 |
+2.0 |
|
FG ATT per Game |
4.1 |
2.7 |
+1.4 |
|
Field Goal% |
39.2% |
35.2% |
+4.0% |
|
3PT ATT per Game |
1.4 |
0.8 |
+0.6 |
|
Three-Point% |
32.5% |
29.3% |
+3.2% |
|
FT ATT per Game |
1.0 |
0.5 |
+0.5 |
|
Free Throw% |
79.2% |
65.8% |
+13.4% |
|
Off Rebs per Game |
0.5 |
0.2 |
+0.3 |
|
Def Rebs per Game |
1.1 |
0.6 |
+0.5 |
|
TOT Rebs per Game |
1.6 |
0.8 |
+0.8 |
|
Assists |
3.6 |
1.7 |
+1.9 |
|
Steals |
0.7 |
0.3 |
+0.4 |
|
Blocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
--- |
|
Turnovers |
1.5 |
0.7 |
+0.8 |
|
Personal Fouls |
1.7 |
0.8 |
+0.9 |
|
Effective FG% |
44.8% |
39.5% |
+5.3% |
|
True Shooting% |
49.1% |
42.3% |
+6.8% |
|
PER |
12.5 |
9.0 |
+3.5 |
|
Plus-Minus |
+0.08 |
-1.44 |
+1.52 |
|
Assist/Turnover Ratio |
2.40 |
2.43 |
-0.03 |
As is evident from the right-hand column of the stat table, Sergio Rodriguez registered improvement in nearly every aspect of his game this year. The raw production numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt, as he did play more minutes this year than last, so you'd be aghast if you didn't see plus signs on those. But his assists rose proportionately above his minutes gained, which is a key stat for him. Also his shooting percentages saw significant gains. His plus-minus was up as well.
The key point for me, though, doesn't lie on the stat line. However Sergio performed, he played with more controlled aggression basketball than we've yet seen from him. Gone were the forehead-slap-inducing plays. We saw a player who shot confidently, moved his feet on defense, and looked like he was in control of the situation instead of the other way around. His play allowed Nate to sub him in consistently and made him the clear back-up point guard for the season despite whatever pressure came from Jerryd Bayless. The statistical results may not have been overwhelming when measured against the ideal, but Sergio definitely made progress.
On the other hand it's fair to say that despite the progress, he's not there yet. Confidence or not, those shooting percentages are still low, even with the leaps. And the grain of salt you take with Sergio's numbers becomes bigger when you consider that last season was an unmitigated disaster for him. Single-digit PER, shooting percentage at 35%, effective field goal percentage below 40%, three-point percentage below 30%, free throw percentage at 66%, negative plus-minus...had these things continued he might not have had a place in the league anymore, let alone with the Blazers. He better have gotten better. Even with the improvement you're still not madly in love with anything besides his assists.
Sergio's ratio of jumpers to close shots is 70-30, which really isn't bad compared to some of the perimeter players on this team. One of Sergio's problems is that he still has trouble finishing inside. He developed a little fake and pop jumper which served him quite well. But he still gets 18% of his inside attempts blocked. Having 1 shot in 5 off the drive not see the light of day is not good. He doesn't have the strength to create contact nor the threatening power to draw fouls. In short he can drive but opponents are probably not too worried about it.
To balance that, Sergio showed a clear understanding of Rudy Fernandez's motion offense from the beginning of the season, for obvious reasons. Those Spanish Armada alley-oops became legendary. Rudy made Sergio's game more relevant. If that's the style of offense Portland is trending towards they may need Sergio to make it work. As it is, Sergio assisted on approximately 36% of his teammates' field goals when he was on the floor, which is a decent number.
In the few times he was on the floor during clutch situations Sergio wilted. This is not unexpected given his lack of familiarity with those situations and the team's lack of familiarity with him in those situations. Still you want to have a point guard who is bankable when the chips are down. It also became obvious as the playoffs ensued that Sergio wasn't going to be part of the rotation. Dependability likely had something to do with that as well.
The team did far better offensively when Sergio was off the court than on. We always mention with second-unit players that the offense isn't prone to be as great overall because the stars are often sitting. But the difference was a loss of 7.8 points per 100 possessions, which is pretty big. The team also did slightly better defensively when Sergio was sitting. Effective field goal percentage was pretty much a wash whether Sergio played or not. Offensive rebounding went up when he was in the game. Assists skyrocketed. However defensive rebounding and free throw attempts went way down and turnovers went way up. The latter was probably not due to Sergio mishandling the ball as much as his teammates still not quite knowing what to expect of him.
There are a lot more reasons to love Sergio and far fewer reasons to complain about him this year compared to last. However there aren't enough reasons yet to truly celebrate him as a complete NBA player. More minutes did give him a leg up, but they didn't revolutionize his game.
The elephant in the room is Sergio's post-season commentary about half-wanting, half-expecting to be traded. There's been a long-standing argument in Blazer Nation about Sergio's talents versus the fact that he's ill-suited to the Blazers' current offensive system. Both sides of the debate have merit. Sergio does have more talent and probably more production than we've seen on a consistent basis. On the other hand he's probably not good enough to change around your offensive system to suit him. The popular sentiment among Sergio's fans and critics alike seems to be that a change of scenery would do him good.
The kangaroo in the room is that Sergio's chances for advancement seem pretty small given that both he and Brandon Roy are most comfortable when handling the ball. In fact Brandon basically bowed out of the offense during the times that his playing time and Sergio's overlapped. He probably needed the break anyway, but obviously that issue would have to be resolved were Sergio to earn even more minutes.
Despite all that, I'm not entirely sure a move is a foregone conclusion. You don't trade players, especially young ones, just because they want it. A deal has to make sense, bringing value to both teams. Truthfully what happens to Sergio may have to do more with the players around him than his own talents or needs. He doesn't have enough value to be the centerpiece of a trade outside of maybe a second-round pick or, on the outside, the same low first-rounder that Portland spent on him. If he's moved he will probably be a throw-in with somebody else's deal. He's not guaranteed to end up in a better situation that way. If, on the other hand, Jerryd Bayless or Steve Blake are moved (and they both have higher general trade value than Sergio at this point) then Sergio may find himself sticking around as the second or third point guard on this team, like it or not. He'll be in the third year of his rookie contract in the coming season, so the Blazers still have a year to decide what to do with him. There's no pressure to move him.
How would you rate Sergio's season, his overall game, and his chances of remaining a Blazer? Are you done with the Sergio experiment? Would you like to see it continue? Would you like to see it expanded? Share your best observations below.
See more stats at 82Games.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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I think Sergio is worth one more year to see if he improves further
Sergio has earned his backup spot, and Bayless has yet to snatch it away from him. I think that knowing that should boost Sergio’s confidence further, and hopefully with more off-season work akin to his experience last year this should add up to more confidence from coach.
Sergio is a hot commodity, and a lot of other teams know this. He has excellent court vision, but he is young and prone to making mistakes. And the thing to take away is that making mistakes teaches you how NOT to make them again.
I know he’s far from a dominant reserve, but give him some credit. He did the best he could, and if another offseason’s work on his jumper improves his FG% again, from both inside and downtown, he may be a serviceable backup for years to come or even possibly a lunch-box starter like Joel and Steve.
He deserves this last year to show his full potential, and I think KP knows it too, or else he wouldn’t have made all the moves to get him in the first place. A lot of people will most likely disagree with me, but that’s ok. This is only my opinion. But hopefully those who disagree may take something away from it too, as well as a little respect for the Cannon of the Spanish Armada (Rudy is the Cannonball).
Blazers win!
AND!!! he's playin better team Defense.
ya didn’t see him lost almost at all this last season, oposed to the previous season.
hu? hu? hu? yeah!!! :)
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
ole
"There are a few teams you have to watch out for in the fourth quarter."
"Yeah, but Portland definitely is not one of them."
-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters at the end of the third quarter with the Hornets leading 74-59. Portland later ends up winning 97-89.
"They don't mind him shooting that shot at all. Rudy Fernandez is not that great of a 3pt shooter."
-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters right after a Rudy Fernandez missed 3pter. Rudy Fernandez finished the game with three 3pters on six attempts.
Nate and Kp said a PG needs about 5 years to develop.
Sergio decided to go to the NBA when he was 19 years old and he wasn´t stablished as a star in the Spanish ACB. He was very raw and his stats were pretty normal. I don´t know why he decided to go to the NBA so soon. Was he thinking he could develop his game in the NBA? Why did he think he could get playing time in the NBA? I don´t ge it and I won´t speculate about it, but it seems he took a high risk high reward decission. But don´t take me wrong, I think he´ll be a very good player.
Then Sergio fell in Portland. Portland is a very tough place for a Canarian because of the weather. In Canarias there is an average temperature of 22-24º Celsius in winter and 26-28º in summer, and people pass a lot of time outside their homes. And Sergio left his family, friends and girlfriend … Just imagine. On the other hand, the Blazers were a team in rebuilding mode, the perfect place where he could find playing time. Great!…. Then Sergio met Nate.
I like Nate but man, he´s a very tough guy and I don´t know wether he doesn´t understand the latin mentality or the Euro players behavior change in the NBA because all the business involved (agents and all that) becuase I´ve heard some more or less subtle complains against Nate coming from Batum, Rudy and Sergio. And again, don´t take me wrong.
The toughest times use to be remembered as the best once they´ve passed. Sergio should think about it. All this tough experience will be very usefull. Nate is doing him a favor, IMO. Sergio just can´t understand it now. Everything will be down hill from there.
Now he wants lo leave. And he could go to a losing team and regret it his whole career. It´s very tough when you play for a loosing team even if they make you their star player. Ask Pau Gasol.
Finally, the Blazers have two options in the PG development department, Sergio and Bayless, and neither of them is a clear winner now but both could be starter PG material for a champion team. But they need at least one more year to clarify these options. But now it seems we want to win the champioship next year.
And I yet don´t know what I´m saying…
"They didn't know it was impossible, so they did it"
by amlmart1 on May 16, 2009 4:42 AM PDT reply actions 5 recs
I think you speak truth.
Personalities are far more important than I knew before I became old, gray and a head coach. For all the good things Nate brings, and I believe they are many and championship caliber, they arent very good for an age appropriately immauture latin star. Think Nate at 40+ and Ricky Martin at 19. Probably not a good mix.
Nate and Ime? Nate and Jarrett? Nate and Steve? No worries.
But Sergio will be well served by not having quit completely. I trust that as he gains success and self confidence Nate will become slighly more flexible and accomodating. I think he already has. As he matures and develops perspective Sergio will become better and better.
And I think they’d rather do this in seperate places. No worries. Just like with Ime, I will always cheer for Sergio, here or elsewhere. And as my fandom followed Nate to Portland, I will continue to cheer for him as well.
Bedge or go home.
I think you know what you are saying: Sergio is a contradiction caballero
He possesses the second best court sense on this team (B-Roy is way better). He uses that court sense to attempt passes that, all too often, will not work in the NBA .
He thinks he knows basketball but his coach is an honored former PG who knows the NBA and does not agree. (Reminds me of Martell not getting it until his 3rd year). He appears to value assists over turnovers and flash over workmanship.
He has improved in these areas. He is exactly what a young point guard is expected to be. Does he have the heart to take the reins of the team? His talk of being traded suggests otherwise.
And as a native Oregonian I disagree about the weather. Sergio chose to play an indoor sport. No weather in there. And there is plenty of sunshine just 100 miles east at The Dalles. He can buzz up there after practice whenever he wants. Weather is an excuse that does not fly with me. It is hard to leave his native country and go to a foreign land. All those players drafted by the Clippers and L@kers can attest to this! A professional puts that aside and does his job.
I agree that Sergio needs another year (or at least to the trade deadline) for us to know. KP may know now. I do not know if he can wait another year. KP’s statement in my signature would raise that question to be either way. He does not miss the opportunity to inject chemistry and community into the championship discussion.
"What's so interesting is that this team took on a dynamic that was very special. I don't think we as a group, in terms of management, coaches and players, realize what we did as a young team. We broke all the metrics. We broke all the molds. Our challenge is can we continue to do that. As young of a team with 54 wins, no issues off the court, phenomenal chemistry." - Kevin Pritchard
We all realize just how much
Sergio is going to need to improve on.
1) He needs to develop a floater in the lane.
2) He needs to hit the 3pt shot.
3)He has to improve his defense.
4) He needs to get stronger(upper body).
5) CONSISTENCY.
Now can he accomplish that all in one summer? I don’t think so. He’ll never be a starter on a Champion winning side. He might turn into a very good backup PG but I suspect that it would take another 3 years untill he’s good enough to start on an average team.We are a team that can compete for the Title but we can’t have 2 PGs that we have to develop along the way. To me Bayless has more potential and therefore we should look to trade Sergio along with Steve.
Sergio needs to go. For his own good, and the good of the Blazers
The good of Sergio:
He is way too talented and way too young to settle into the role as an afterthought third-string point guard. That’s a job the Tyronn Lues, Lindsey Hunters, Mike Wilks, Brevin Knights of the league can fill. But exactly that is the role he is driving towards if he stays with the Blazers. That or potentially returning to Spain in 2010 when his contract is up. Sergio deserves a chance to showcase his talents, and the Blazers need to get something out of him. There is next to no chance he will be the consistent starter on the Blazers for the reasons Dave laid out even if Blake should get traded (and that would be for another point guard in 9 out of 10 scenarios), most notably that he doesn’t really click with Brandon on offense.
Problem is: I can’t really see another team that would instantly let him start either (maybe the Kings, but even that is not likely). But there are some where he would get much more consistent backup minutes. NY reportedly is interested in bringing Spanish PG Carlos Cabezas over especially if Robinson leaves them. I don’t know much about Cabezas, but wouldn’t it be safer for them to go with Sergio instead who has NBA experience? If we can move Sergio (who NY can absorb with trade exceptions), picks and cash for their #8 pick, that could be a nice deal for both teams.
Golden State would be another nice system for Sergio, running alongside some of the quickest guards in the league in a fairly lose system where one missed defensive assignment isn’t a huge deal. Nate often pulls you for that, Nelson rarely. Backup to Nash in Phoenix (yes they have Dragic, but that isn’t exactly the real deal). Backup to Devin Harris in NJ, an athletic team with an absolutely shallow depth chart at the moment (Dooling as a combo starting SG/backup PG is all). They also have a trade exception with which they could absorb Sergio. There are options out there.
The good of the Blazers:
Bayless needs time to develop. It is the other kangaroo in the room. If the Blazers want Bayless to become the starter at any time in the future, he needs to get minutes next year as a regular backup who sees 10-15 minutes per game. And not just in some games, in all games he is healthy. He can put in all the hours in the weight room and gym taking 1000 shots he wants, it will not help him to hone all his skills. There is another young point guard who just had that problem: Brandon Jennings, expected to be a top 10 pick this year. With Roma he went to a too good European club with players in front of him, and got far less playing time than he would have got on any college or a mediocre team in a good league. He still learned a lot, but not enough to show why he was so talented he could take the step in the first place. It’s similar with Bayless. They need to commit time on the floor to him, or we can pick up the next “next star” PG every year in the draft. Why Bayless and not Sergio? The question almost answers itself: There would be no Bayless as a pretty high pick on this team who they sent another promising young guard out (or really two) to get him, if it had been convinced by Sergio in the first two years.
Honestly, I will be disappointed in KP if Sergio is still around at the end of the offseason. It would be another sign that he is too much in love with the players he has.
"Officiating has to be a science, not an art" - Rick Carlisle
Bayless needs to earn his time....
Not be given it. I don’t think KP would be smart to go into next season with a totally unproven Bayless as our 2nd string pg. What if there is an injury? He needs to start off at 3rd string behind two more experienced points and than take one of their spots with his play. I hope Sergio sticks around personally. I think he has nearly as much upside as Bayless, albeit in a different way. I am sick of people saying that Bayless needs minutes to develop. The Blazers are too good now to waste 10-15 minutes a game “developing” a young pg. His development will come in summer pickups and lots of practice with the ol’ team. Playing 10 mpg for 82 games will absolutely in no way make or break his development. Bayless needs to beat somebody out for his minutes, and if Sergio is still on the team, I am not sure he will do it right away. And if Bayless cant beat out Sergio, well, he deserves to be a 3rd string pg. I say keep sergio and let him battle it out with Bayless for those leftover pg scraps. Competition is good….
RUDY > MJ
Who did Augustin or Westbrook have to beat out?
They were given even the starting spot. Augustin wasn’t instantly better than Felton, it was a decision made by the coach. If we had a third center, should Oden have started out as the third center because he started bad? It took some time to even decide/accept Joel was still better.
Of course Bayless has to prove and develop himself this year to claim the spot, but that can’t completely happen in summer league and training. If he plays the first ten games against real NBA player as a backup seeing constant minutes and screws up then it might be time to put whoever is third string PG next year ahead of him (several teams only have 2 anyway). Difference to other end of bench players is that the Blazers invested a high draft pick and a decent player in him, so they have to continue developing him to get dividends.
I too think Sergio has unrealized potential, but not much in our slow system. If Nate says he wants to run more with the second unit I have to see that because that was also the plan last year and little changed. As has been said elsewhere in the thread that was also Sergio’s request: Either the system adapts more to how I need to play, or I have to play elsewhere. I assume the latter will happen.
"Officiating has to be a science, not an art" - Rick Carlisle
I hear ya...
Sorry if my comment sounded snarky at all, it wasn’t my intention. I think the difference between Westbrook/Augustine and Bayless is that those two players are on crappy teams trying to develop and Bayless is on a good team that is trying to get past the development stage. I also think that Sergio is simply a misfit in Nate’s system and that will likely never change, which is unfortunate. Our second unit last season really shouldnt have been running that same ol’ isolation, mistake limiting offense. But I sure wont complain with the results. I really do hope Bayless comes in ready to earn the minutes that he will likely be given regardless of whether he improves or not. I want him to do well, I think sometimes my arguments against him confuse people to that fact….
RUDY > MJ
Augustin never started over Felton
that’s just revisionist history. He started 12 games all year, always alongside Felton, and always due to injury or trades to the SG. And Charlotte had a viable third PG in Shannon Brown, DJ just outplayed him and won the spot.
Obviously Charlotte starting out so poorly gave him a little more leeway, but it’s not like every other rookie guard was in the same position as Westbrook. It’s insulting to Augustin to say he had his minutes given to him, especially when he had as many assists by the first week in December as Bayless had all year in fewer minutes.
I think one of the main reasons the team doesn't run more is because of Roy and Blake, not because of McMillan.
"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."
Players don't develop sitting on the bench
Think back to Jermaine O’Neal. He was behind good players, so he never got consistent minutes and a chance to show what he could do. We traded him for Dale Davis, who was decent for about three seasons. O’Neal went on to become a 5 time All-Star.
Your comment about “needs to earn it.” Sounds great, but it doesn’t really work. Bayless is an unusually physically gifted player. The part of his game that needs the most development is decision making. He needs to learn how to set his teammates up, when to st them up, and when to try to score. He is not going to learn to make decisions sitting on the bench. He needs to play.
If he was a young raw player who needed to work on his body, you might have a point. If he was a guy who didn’t have skills, you might have a point. Bayless has far better strength and speed than either Blake or Sergio. As soon as he finishes tinkering with his shot, he has all the skills he needs to be successful.
“If he can’t beat out Sergio”. He came very close to doing so during the time Blake was injured. Bayless was more productive than Sergio during that stretch, but the team ran a little better with Sergio because of his strengths and greater experience. Given a summer to work on his shot and his game, I would be shocked if Bayless did not beet out Sergio by the start of next season.
Ask yourself about Sergio’s first and second seasons. Did you have the same point of view?
by upper left corner on May 17, 2009 7:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Good point!
It’s gonna be harder for Bayless though as his rook year was on a playoff team.Gotta prove yourself in practice! Yes were talking practice here.Practice.
Sergio....
will be entering his FOURTH year with the team, not 3rd…….
by fairwayfreddy80 on May 16, 2009 6:47 AM PDT reply actions
I love good passing
great plays, great passes are, to me, the most exciting thing to watch in the NBA. A great pass to a cutter, to a post player at the perfect moment allowing for a smashing finish; if the players on a team get used to that kind of quick, creative passing, and are ready for it, the whole game just opens up. They start moving and helping each other and pretty soon you have the other team reeling. Oh well. Not like that happened that often with Sergio anyway. Though it felt sometimes like if the other players all bought into it it could have. Who knows.
by twggyy on May 16, 2009 7:23 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm with you on that
A great pass is the most exciting, satisfying thing I see on the court. The problem, though, is there is so little motion off the ball in Portland’s offense that it doesn’t allow Sergio – or anyone else, for that matter – many opportunities to make those great passes. Too much isolation, not enough movement. More movement and Sergio is a great asset; same offense as they’ve run for the last few years and Sergio and the Blazers would be better served by trading him.
Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana.
Some time in the second half of the year, Sergio took a step forward in his game...
He stopped being a spotup perimeter shooter (Blake lite) and started playing more in his own style, which involves dribble penetrations followed by kick-outs.
Sergio is clearly a very gifted passer and a passable finisher and mid-range shooter. He is not and pretty clearly never will be a 3 point bomber…
A year ago he had no trade value; this year he probably does. He needs to go to a team that suits his playing style and he needs to be gone to make room for Bayless. Not to mention that Sergio has already checked out on this franchise. It’s a bad match and time for both parties to move along.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
He shot 33% from 3
If he brought it up two percentage points (not difficult) he would be considered a reliable three-point shooter.
"...we have so many experts who think that you have to play defense, you have to rebound, you have to be a possession coach, you have to execute. I just laugh. Explosive offense is not as intimidating as dominant defense. But it is scary when you don't know how to stop someone." - George Karl, Nuggets coach
Umm
If you take over 3 pointers taken from beyond halfcourt his 3pt% goes up 2.8%. (I did this with like 10 games left, so it might have changed slightly.) Either way, 35.8% isn’t great, but it means that he only needs to improve it a little more to be passable.
Proves my point
He’s not a bad three point shooter. Not deadly, but not bad. In reality, 50% from 2 point is good, and you only need to shoot 33% from 3 to have the same effective percentage.
"...we have so many experts who think that you have to play defense, you have to rebound, you have to be a possession coach, you have to execute. I just laugh. Explosive offense is not as intimidating as dominant defense. But it is scary when you don't know how to stop someone." - George Karl, Nuggets coach
Yeah I was agreeing and disagreeing at the same time.
His 3pt% isn’t as bad as people think it is.
But I disagree that we can call 35-36% reliable. There are enough 40-42% shooters out there that I would consider that range as where you want to be as a PG.
40%+ is pretty awesome
38-40% is solid
36-38 is passable
34-36 is borderline
sub 34% needs works.
Yes, 34% from behind the arc is 51% from 2 point land, but you’re also held to a higher standard when you shoot 3s because it’s supposed to be a more efficient shot than anything outside of the key.
Sergio, una vez mas
I recently summarized my thoughts and feelings about Sergio here:
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/5/8/869953/i-dont-think-i-can-do-more-sergio#
But, for one of you folks who is into stats, what would Sergio’s 3-pt percentage be if you ignored all the long quarter-ending heaves that he puts up? I think this would be a significant adjustment — he seemed to take at least one of those and sometimes two per game.
I’ve one more really minor thing to add. Sergio has a knack for taking a good foul. He will foul to stop a fast break and he’ll foul when the Blazers have one to give with time running down in the quarter. Basically, he just shows an understanding of that aspect of the game and a willingness to commit the foul that not all players have. I think it’s kind of the same thing as being willing to take a desperation shot though it will hurt his field goal and 3-point percentage. He really is a team player.
Time to choose.
Your write-up is curiously silent on the subject that is of greatest concern to me about Sergio’s game, “defense.”
We can endlessly discuss the relative merits of Sergio’s passing vs. Bayless’ penetration and scoring abilities, but the bottom line is who has the potential to become a quality defender. Bayless is faster and stronger with better body control and a more aggressive mindset. To me it is clear that Bayless simply has more and better tools in his tool box. This doesn’t mean Bayless is a great defender at this point. He is not, often getting lost on help defense and late getting back to his man, but the potential is very visible to me.
Perimeter defense is one of the teams biggest weaknesses, so far Brandon has not shown that he can carry a huge load on the offensive end and also be a top defender. Nic helps a great deal by taking some of the defensive pressure off Brandon, but Nic is not much of a scoring threat, at this point. I think we need a PG who can score in order to keep the defense honest. We will see whether Bayless’ shot returns, given his history and work ethic, I think it is reasonable to assume that it will.
As others have said, neither Sergio or Bayless are ready to start, and there simply are not enough minutes to develop two young back-ups. We have to choose. Bayless may or may not become an adequate distributor, but to me it is clear that his chances of becoming a distributor are better than Sergio’s chances of becoming a good defender or an adequate scoring threat.
I wish Sergio well, and hope that he prospers elsewhere. He is a good guy, but not a good fit for the teams needs.
by upper left corner on May 16, 2009 8:27 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
rec
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 17, 2009 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Poor perimeter defense can be solved by good rotation
Look at the Orlando/Boston series. How many times did Rondo just zoom by whoever was guarding him, only to get stuck under the basket. In the new “no touch” NBA, the rotation against a drive is more important than actually guarding a drive.
Pinning this all on the PG is just uneducated sillyness.
Yeah, but you don't want to depend on it at this time...especially given Oden's foul-ability...
I don’t think ULC is pinning it on the PG. He mentions Brandon’s weakness at defense. When BOTH the PG and SG allow guys to continually penetrate, it puts a lot of pressure on the other 3 to cover (rotate). This ultimately leads to switches with mismatches (how many times was Aldridge covering Brooks in the playoffs? A lot!) because the PG/SG doesn’t recover to their own guy.
It appears the consensus is that Blake/Sergio/Roy are not going to get much better at keeping their man in front of them (Roy can occasionally), so therefore the only options (if we are talking about upgrading perimeter defense, only) are for the whole team to get better (which they will, slowly) or find a defending PG/SG who can stop the penetration. Since Roy/Rudy are probably not going anywhere, that leaves either Bayless to be that guy (leading to more minutes and associated +/-s due to his inexperience) or finding someone else. I don’t see us standing pat at the PG.
‘OK Nic, swag on out on ‘em!’
Thanks for defending my honor,
Your comment does a nice job of laying out my concerns.
by upper left corner on May 21, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
"uneducated sillyness (sic)"
Nice to hear from you Zaig. Appreciate your respect.
Suggesting that on ball defense is unimportant seems silly to me. Switches come at a price: creating mismatches, leaving guys open and leading to fouls and open shooters.
by upper left corner on May 21, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Adios Sergio
and the drama that surrounds you.
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
His stare became blank. It was apparent he was back in that place, on the Rose Garden's logo, picking up Aaron Brooks as the crowd nervously roared.
Sergio is the Travis Outlaw of point guards
Three years, still shows promise. Still makes wonderful and at times head scratching plays. Still inconsistent. Still leaves us saying, “if he could only learn to…”
His strengths and weaknesses have been well noted above and in a previous post or ten thousand so no need to go into them in my wee note.
I’m with Dave in that I’m not sold on the team having to trade him this offseason. I think the team has been fair in giving him his opportunity and he’s gotten what he’s deserved up to this point.
I’m a little disappointed that he’s often reacted to his unhappiness in his role by blaming others or his situation rather than redoubling his efforts to improve his many noted deficienicies, but I’m willing to chalk it up to youth. It might be best for him if he were moved to another situation but only in that he’d learn that the situation is not the problem.
I like the guy, I root for the guy and I want him to succeed as a Blazer or where ever he ends up, but despite his improvement this past season I wouldn’t bet money on him ever developing into one of the better starting point guards in the league but just like the Derby winner, the potential is still there.
Sage observation. Sergio has gotten what he earned
The constant drum beat of blaming Nate for Sergio’s limitations is hard to understand and hard to take.
Is it Nate’s fault that Sergio is not a consistent scoring threat? Is it Nate’s fault that Sergio has had turnover issues? Is is Nate’s fault that Sergio struggles to stay in front of back-up PGs?
Sergio has some real strengths and showed some real improvement, that is why he earned decent minutes as the back-up over a highly regarded draft pick. But Sergio’s game has very large holes. He certainly does not look like a starter, particularly on a team where our best player is a SG who frequently needs the ball. Sergio is at best a minimally adequate spot-up shooter. A major part of his “improved” shooting was the fact that teams left him wide open and dared him to shoot it. We are often playing 4 on 5 with Sergio on the floor.
To me, scapegoating Nate, clearly seems unreasonable.
by upper left corner on May 16, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, it's Nate's fault.
Sergio has severe limitations, but Nate’s system didn’t take Seattle to a championship, and it won’t work here, either.
If you say "basically" at the beginning of a sentence, you probably also put ketchup on everything you eat.
by CosmoPlavix on May 16, 2009 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Few guys not named Jackson or Popovich have taken their teams to the title in the last decade
by upper left corner on May 16, 2009 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions
try 4 active coaches
Pop, Jax, Rivers and Larry Brown are the ONLY active coaches with an NBA title. Add Pat Riley and Rudy Tomjanovich and you have all the coaches that have won titles since the 1990 Detroit Pistons.
"B-Roy is the best shooting guard I have played against"
-Ron Artest
If Artest can say it, so can I. Broy>Kobe.
I'm impressed by sergio on the offensive end
He is a wizard passer and facilitator, even if Rudy is paired with another PG, I don’t think we’ll ever see the kind of chemistry we saw with Rudy and Sergio this year, yeah, we may see even crazier alley opps from bayless, batum, rudy, roy, lma, and hopefully the team gels more and more every season; but you have to admit, sergio is just an exciting player if your team is playing loose, and brings something really different and exotic that opposing defenders can’t predict. I really like watching him and bayless play together (usually in mop up time), it never hurts to have an affordable point guard around, the only problem, will he play comfortable and loose if he is fettered by inconsistent minutes and the gnashing teeth of bayless on his mind? Probably not, it sounds like he just wants consistent minutes wherever he plays, which the guy deserves.
"The problem with tweeners is that sometimes they’re exactly what you need to plug the hole and sometimes they are the hole."
-LaughingJon
I don't thik we need to keep a player
Whose sole purpose is to throw alley oops to Rudy…
Proud member of Duck nation!
there is more to it than that
natch
"The problem with tweeners is that sometimes they’re exactly what you need to plug the hole and sometimes they are the hole."
-LaughingJon
See my comment just above
I get very exited when Sergio’s man blows by him on his way to the rim. So excited I want to throw things at my TV.
by upper left corner on May 16, 2009 9:37 AM PDT reply actions
GRRRR....this was supposed to be a reply to appel82
For some reason I seem constitutionally incapable of remembering to hit the reply button.
by upper left corner on May 16, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions
instant karma
telling you that if you’re going to be a smart ass you need to be better at it.
"The problem with tweeners is that sometimes they’re exactly what you need to plug the hole and sometimes they are the hole."
-LaughingJon
Sergio scares me
Because he seems to have horrible decision-making ability. Whenever he goes up for a shot I want to scream “YOU IDIOT!” because 90% of the time it’s a bad jumper in traffic…
I hope he’s not in the 15 when October rolls around…
Proud member of Duck nation!
Mixed Feelings
I love Sergio’s passion and his ability to pick up the tempo for a team that still likes to stand around too much. But if we had an Aaron Brooks, a Chris Paul, or a Rajon Rondo, I’d gladly wave bye bye to the Spanish Armada (By the way, the original Spanish Armada sunk in a storm, before the English had to fire a shot).
The truth about the league is that the best point guards are stronger, taller, and faster, and Sergio will continue to be overmatched. The current roster as a whole looked lost against Houston, and Sergio did not help his teammates find their way. Adios, vaya con Dios, and hasta la vista, baby.
If you say "basically" at the beginning of a sentence, you probably also put ketchup on everything you eat.
by CosmoPlavix on May 16, 2009 12:20 PM PDT reply actions
Sergio
Solid player-wrong team I will wish him the best & root for him except against us.I think he even knows he’s gone & think he will welcome a fresh start. Good luck.Serg
I think we have to love him or leave him.
As in start him (and work through the bugs) or trade him. He seems like the type of guy that needs minutes to contribute. He is not the type who can come off the bench and instantly improve things. A few random alley-oop passes and high assist per minute rate are not proof of him contributing, I don’t think. Just shows what a good team he is on. And his forehead slap-inducing plays are not gone, in my opinion.
"The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over."
At this point
I know PGs can take a while to develop, but 3 years and doubling of his minutes didn’t exactly inspire confidence that all he needs is yet more time.
The things that seal the deal for me are that A) he wants a change of scenery, B) Nate doesn’t trust him (neither do I honestly) and C) he can’t play effectively with Brandon.
I strongly suspect that if this team hadn’t added Rudy to the mix, Sergio might have put up a season very similar to his sophomore campaign and it wasn’t like he was able to play the pick and roll with our bigs to any great effect, so for my money I’d rather just ship him off to greener pastures and give Bayless a shot to see what he can do given more than 650 minutes in a season.
Doesn't complement Roy; will have to go
I like Sergio. I think he has the best court vision and is the best passer on the Blazers.
However, the Blazers revolve around Roy and Roy plays 38 minutes a game and he (Roy) often has the ball in his hands when he and Sergio are on the floor at the same time. If Sergio doesn’t have the ball or play with players who move without the ball (again, Roy rarely does so), he (Sergio) has very limited value.
I seriously doubt that the Blazer’s style of play is going to change, so far better for Sergio to go. Unfortunately, there is probably not a lot that the Blazers can get for him, but there is little point* (pun intended) in keeping Sergio around as it is mutually frustrating for everyone (Sergio, Nate, teammates, fans).
*I don’t like little PGs (yes there are exceptions like CP3), so I’m not really sure what is out there for a substantial upgrade at PG for the Blazers. Like it or not, Blake is a better complement to Roy than many and neither Sergio nor Jerryd are great as backup PGs for the few minutes that are available after Roy, Rudy, and Blake get theirs.
It will be interesting to see if Sergio can keep up his phenomenal asst/min rate on a team that runs/moves w/o the ball (i.e., someone other than the Blazers).
Counterpoint
Rajan Ronda can’t shoot and has great passing skills. He plays with a player (Pierce) who needs the ball in his hands a lot to score. Sound familiar? I think it could work.
"...we have so many experts who think that you have to play defense, you have to rebound, you have to be a possession coach, you have to execute. I just laugh. Explosive offense is not as intimidating as dominant defense. But it is scary when you don't know how to stop someone." - George Karl, Nuggets coach
Rondo is super fast and gets to the rack with the best of them. Bad analogy.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on May 17, 2009 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Terrible comparison
Rondo is also a fantastic finisher, rebounder and defender. If Sergio had all of those tools, I’d happily forgive the fact that he’s not a great shooter.
by nikolokolus on May 17, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You nailed it
Sergio doesn’t fit with Roy. That’s all that really matters on this team as long as we run the iso offense that we run.
I figured the only way Sergio sticks in Portland
is if this becomes Oden’s team offensively; if the bread and butter play becomes a high pick and roll focused around getting GO moving to the bucket with the ball, then Sergio’s the guy to feed him. If the bread and butter remains the high pick and roll focused around getting Roy moving to the bucket, there’s just no point to having a guard like Sergio on the team.
Well, it’s kind of looking less likely that GO is going to be the bread and butter offensive option, and Roy has elevated his scoring to a level I hadn’t expected. I think Sergio will do nicely on a lot of different teams, as much as a third of the teams in the league could use a starter or backup playing 20 mpg with his skills; I hope he ends up on one of them, and no hard feelings.
One thing
A guard has to be able to either finish or hit a shot for the pick and roll to be truly effective. Otherwise defenses simply sag off the guard and make sure the rolling big never touches the ball. Sergio has great court vision and his passing can be truly spectacular at times, but good defenses (not gambling defenses) give him fits because they play the passing lanes and the angles. If Sergio had developed even a half-way reliable mid-range jumper he’d have been gold on this team, instead … well, he didn’t and now he’s a decent change of pace backup point guard, but probably never going to be a great fit with this team.
by nikolokolus on May 16, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Sergio can be a solid backup for a lot of teams
I don’t think there’s more than 2 or 3 that would start him right now.
starting
I don’t think Sergio really needs to start for a team for him to be happy. There has been talks that he needs to go bc he can’t play with Brandon…which is true to an extent. However I would assume that he’d be more than happy if he were just playing solid backup minutes every game and had the trust of his coach in a decent role.
I got 6 years of playoff blue balls going on, and I'm ready to release. GO BLAZERS. ~Mortimer
by Philthyanimal on May 17, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Where's SergioFTW?
We need some Sergio love around here. Everyone’s too negative about him and I don’t have the energy to defend him.
"...we have so many experts who think that you have to play defense, you have to rebound, you have to be a possession coach, you have to execute. I just laugh. Explosive offense is not as intimidating as dominant defense. But it is scary when you don't know how to stop someone." - George Karl, Nuggets coach
After looking at those stats..
I would definitely be willing to see Sergio stay for another season.
"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."
Although I'd probably prefer
that he stayed, I understand some of the arguments to the contrary. I do wish however that people get over the absurd fantasy that Bayless is about to become our starting PG. IMO, he simply doesn’t have the make up for it. He’s really a short two guard or at best a combo guard. This subject makes me wish that Bayless be the one to get traded so that everyone could look at the point guard situation with clearer heads.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
Can we skip the Bayless commentary?
This isn’t a place to discuss Bayless’ skills and shortcomings …
I'll give some Sergio Love:
His defense has gotten better… you have to give him that. I claim he’s the equal of Blake.
Now let me take you back to the playoffs against Houston. There was a stretch of that series where Sergio came in and instantly the game was better. The pace improved; the scoring improved; LMA ran the floor; everything was better.
And I’ll point out that even the announers at the time—whoever they were—were extolling the virtues of Sergio and wondering why he didn’t play more. They sounded like BEdge.
Let us also not forget that gorgeous little jump stop floater in the paint. That thing was money and it was beautiful to watch. The thing I love most about that shot is Sergio realized he was getting blocked and developed a new weapon to counter it.
The guy is great basketball player. He’s hungry and he distributes.
I’d personally feel very comfortable sitting Blake and starting Sergio next season because I think his potential is higher than Blake’s. And with those starter minutes, Brandon would finally be compelled to fill the one gap in his game: moving without the ball.
Let’s not let the season-long stats—which were rife other issues—color the fact that he had some strong moments in a playoff series that saw the likes of Trout and Batum absolutely vanish. The Spanish Armada both proved something to me in that series and that something is a thing I want to see around the Rose Garden some more.
Buck Williams for the hall of fame
by Phizbin on May 17, 2009 11:34 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
And another thing...
I’m tired of hearing that “Roy has to have the ball in his hands to be effective.”
No he doesn’t. He EITHER needs the ball in his hands OR he has to be willing to move and have a PG willing and able to pass the ball to him. The latter is harder but, I argue, more effective (and more asethetically pleasing to watch).
If Jason Kidd were on this team, he woudl figure out a way to get Roy the ball. Same with Stockton and any other great PG.
I don’t if Sergio is as good as those other guys—maybe not—but he at least has the willingness to behave like those PGs and that willingness is in rather short supply in the NBA.
Buck Williams for the hall of fame
And sorry for all the dang typos...
Microsoft Word’s autocorrect feature has made me horribly, embarassingly sloppy at typing.
Some tech is not good.
Buck Williams for the hall of fame
Firefox has been really slow and laggy for me lately
So I got off it.
I guess my impatience creates these situations.
Buck Williams for the hall of fame
Great Point!
He definitely stands around a lot in comparison to K*be who uses a lot of screens. But it could be due to the lack of imagination in the offense. Pick and roll, pick and pop, pick and pop, pick and pop, pick and roll…you get the picture. Not really for this topic, but I think Nate keeps it simple because we have younger guys…
‘OK Nic, swag on out on ‘em!’
in reference to Roy getting better at moving w/o the ball.
darn block quote didn’t work…
‘OK Nic, swag on out on ‘em!’
I ran some comparison scores for Sergio again
The most similar player I could come up with (guards, similar size, age, first three seasons, assist%, TS%, etc.) were Brevin Knight and Ennis Watley, who started in the mid eighties and had a decent career for over a decade.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=HBjU1
If you change the criteria a bit, those two still come up, and in addition a number of others a bit further away. The next closest ones were Ramon Sessions, Mark Jackson, and Damon Stoudemire. Three recognizable names. Jason Kidd also comes up if you go by assist % and Sergio’s FG and 3PT%, but his point and assist totals and of course his rebounds are much much higher.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=1KjE3
Same problem as Henry earlier
it registers shooting percentages as between 0 and 1, but all other advanced stats between 0 and 100. Using that out on the second list filters it to three names: Sergio, Kidd, and Mark Jackson.
Sergio is easily the best passer...
and has the best court-vision of anyone on the team now or in recent memory. Unfortunately he is one dimensional and teams can make adjustments to stop him rather easily. He has added things to his game over the past year but not enough to change this fact. He has abilities that this team needs but there are too many holes in his game to keep him on the floor.
I am not against keeping him to see if he can add the skills to his game that will keep him on the floor. He has the natural ability where he needs to have it and the areas that need improvement are skills he can improve on with hard work and specialized coaching. I am pretty much 50/50 on him.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
It's greatly to his credit that he improved his FT % to over 80%
especially at his position, a few inexplicable 0-2s excepted, he’d have been in the mid-80s.
ignacio
Same thing I said at the beginning of the year
Sergio will have a better season than Bayless, but Bayless will stay and Sergio will go due to fit.
Fit in more important to a job than almost anything, so this logic makes sense. Still just hoping that Sergio gets to go to a place that is a good fit for him. Sergio ending up in Orlando this year instead of RA would have been pretty fun to see. As for next year… a backup to Harris would be kinda fun.
If Sergio were a 40 percent 3-point shooter
and could do what Blake does from the three-point line, he’d be a lot better off than he is right now. It would also be different if he were a tremendous defender. Alas, neither of these things have happened yet. – Elgin
VENTURA: It's drowning. It gives you the complete sensation that you are drowning. It is no good, because you -- I'll put it to you this way, you give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders.
I don't think a guy
with Sergio’s build could ever be a tremendous defender, but I agree about the long ball. He could eliminate this discussion by getting to 38, 39, 40% from three.
"...we have so many experts who think that you have to play defense, you have to rebound, you have to be a possession coach, you have to execute. I just laugh. Explosive offense is not as intimidating as dominant defense. But it is scary when you don't know how to stop someone." - George Karl, Nuggets coach
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