Brandon's Season: Historically Superb
by Blaz06Draft on May 15, 2009 7:21 PM PDT
Email
PrintBrandon is known to be a very efficient player who doesn't make mistakes. His 2nd team all-NBA recognizes his status as among the leagues best four active guards. But Brandon's last season was really remarkable among NBA guards throughout history.
I used the "full court" part of basketball-reference.com. I arbitrarily looked just at the last 25 years, from 83/84 to 08/09. I looked for guards that played 2650 minutes or more, which is 36 minutes times 82 games less 10% for injuries.
His PER was 24.0, which is really good but not what makes his season unique. What makes his season unique is the low rate of mistakes while being a key part of his teams offense and delivering the ball to his teammates for assists. This season, his turnover percentage (TOV%) was 9.0%, his usage percentage (USG%) was 27.5%, and his assist percentage (AST%) was 25.4%.
I looked in history for guards with seasons that have equaled or bettered each of these numbers. Only two seasons showed up: Jordan 91/92 and Carter 04/05. Both players were 28. Brandon was 24.
I then looked for seasons that were within 10% of Brandon's numbers: TOV% <= 9.9, USG% >= 24.8, and AST% >= 22.9. These allow for 10% more turnovers, 10% less usage, and 10% less assists. This allows for players that were a bit more careless with the ball (but still quite good), a bit less of the focus of their team's offense, and handed out a bit less assists.
Seasons from only four players showed up: Jordan five times (87/88, 89/90, 90/91, 91/92, 92/93), Brandon twice (07/08, 08/09), Carter twice (04/05, 08/09), and Kobe twice (05/06, 08/09).
To be in this company at so early in his career and at such a young age is remarkable. Brandon has done it twice, in his 2nd and 3rd years. Jordan did it 4, 6, 7, 8, and 9 years into his career. Carter did it in years 7 and 11. Kobe did it in years 10 and 13.
So Brandon, early in his career, is playing like the best years of these clear Hall of Famers and all time greats, in terms of high efficiency, low mistake basketball.
60 comments
|
26 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Amazing.
That is really encouraging.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 15, 2009 7:57 PM PDT reply actions
you'd have to throw in ruffin to make me and roy's salary match up
but i think overall that’s a pretty fair trade.
"Whatever...I heard Bayless uses a pillowcase as a wallet." --TiH
by prezofdeath on May 15, 2009 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Assist to Turnover Ratios
For the years that Jordan is on the list, his Assist to Turnover Ratio is 2.16. Carter’s is about the same: 2.11. Kobe is almost 25% worse than Jordan, at 1.67.
Roy: 33% better than Jordan, at 2.88 assists per turnover! Now that’s good!
Rohan, the guy who runs At the Hive, SBN Hornet blog
watches Chris Paul 82+ times a year. He called Brandon Roy the best decision-maker in basketball.
He just doesn’t turn it over. It’s incredible.
draft rodrigue beaubois
What is remarkable to me about Roy
In the 4th quarter when he takes over games the other teams know what is coming, they ratchett up the defense and he still performs at an amazingly efficient rate.
Nice!
I love that basketball reference deallymajigger. Its cool. I made a killer list. I found players under 25 that were in their first 3 seasons and were between 6-4 and 6-8. I then found the players who averaged at least 21points per 36min, at least 5 assists per 36, at least 4.5 rebounds per 36, and shot at least 48% from the field. Here is the ridiculous list it spit back.
RUDY > MJ
and what is possibly even crazier is that....
if you change the fg% requirement to find players who averaged 21pts, 5ast, 4.5rpg, and less than 2 turnovers, you get nobody, nada, zilch. Roy is the only player in nba history to accomplish those numbers within their first 3 seasons. Roy is honestly in a league of his own when it comes to heavy offensive production while limiting turnovers. Ridiculous….
RUDY > MJ
and now that I look closer yet again...
There are 3 players at any height, at any position, and at any age or point in their career to average at least 21pts, 5ast, 4.5reb, and less than 2 turnovers per 36 minutes. 2 of those players are statistical anomaly’s, the 3rd player is Brandon Roy. Considering the 2 anomaly’s on the list combined for 24 minutes played in their seasons, I think it is safe to say that they don’t qualify and Brandon Roy is the only player to accomplish these type of numbers. Monumental…
RUDY > MJ
wow
you should change your sig to
ROY>MJ
bayless leaves over my dead body
by thomasikehara on May 16, 2009 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Magic Johnson doesn't deserve to be on this list :)
If there was another criteria for >2500 minutes in the season it would look even better eliminating Davis and Magic.
"Officiating has to be a science, not an art" - Rick Carlisle
You just created reason 7,548
of why I love Brandon Roy. I still feel he is underrated, not just by national media, but by everyone on here including me.
Hello Dum Dum
I love Brandon Roy
In a totally manly way. It’s Guy Love.
Best of Senator Clay Davis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI4-QyAzY64&feature=related
Kevin's brother
VENTURA: It's drowning. It gives you the complete sensation that you are drowning. It is no good, because you -- I'll put it to you this way, you give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders.
Turnovers Per Minute, and 4th Quarter
There’s a big gap between Brandon and MJ, VC, and Kobe in terms of assist to turnover ratio. For Brandon, this year, it was 2.6. For their careers, MJ was 1.9, VC is 1.8, and Kobe is 1.6. Brandon’s season was 37% better than MJ, 44% better than VC, and 62% better than Kobe from an assist to turnover ratio perspective.
Another way to look at turnovers is “minutes per turnover.” You want this number to be high. For MJ it is 14.0, for VC it is 15.8, and for Kobe is it 12.5. For Brandon, it is 18.9. Again, a sizable gap. Brandon’s season was 35% better than MJ, 20% better than VC, and 51% better than Kobe from a minutes per turnover perspective.
Finally, Brandon gets even better with the ball in the 4th quarter. He had just 29 turnovers in the 4th quarter all year! (At least thru 80 games, which is the latest stats I could pull from Brian Hendrickson.) His assist to turnover ratio from these already stellar levels in the 4th quarter. It goes to 2.9, an increase of 11%. His minutes per turnover increases to 21.5 minutes, and increase of by 14%. So he gets 10% better in the 4th quarter.
The bottom line is that regarding turnovers, Brandon is 33% better than MJ and 50% better than Kobe!! And he gets even 10% better in the 4th quarter!!!
Unreal
Nice work. Brandon’s game is so fascinating. He’s an assassin. The crazy thing is other teams’ defenses already know where the ball’s going to in the fourth, and they can’t do anything about it! I can’t wait till his other teammates step up and be more dependable.
It is unreal - and much is attributed to his simply amazing handle.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
Artest the Prophet
Think back to what Artest said after he played Brandon. “He is the best SG I have ever played.” Asked why Artest responded because he is so good at getting his teammates involved he is always thinking team first rather than trying to take over.
This stat gives shape and substance to Artest’s comments.
A lot of media thought it was hype. I don’t think so.
by upper left corner on May 16, 2009 9:03 AM PDT reply actions
Very nice analysis
Well done post. BRoy is the realest of the real.
Anybody else a bit surprised to see VC’s name on this hallowed list? And on the second list, Carter’s season THIS YEAR? Carter was way under the radar as a still elite guy because Jersey kinda sucks and Devin Harris emerged as a stud. But he’s still pretty dang good.
IMO, Carter puts the Blazers in the WCF this season, had Portland made that deal for him (which would’ve brought back a first round pick, as well).
AT LEAST.
Can’t blame PA in this economy, but man, inserting another elite guy into this team without losing ANY OTHER PLAYERS from the rotation would have done wonders. I’m not sure people realize how much better VC is than Outlaw.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
I would add...
…KP’s decision not to pull the trigger on VC is still an incomplete, right now, because we don’t know what cards remain to be played this summer. There’s a good chance the Blazers will have an opportunity to bring in somebody like, say, Hinrich, which would be a better move in the long run, since VC is on the wrong side of 30 and still gots to be paid.
But, if the Blazers don’t make any moves this summer and just sign marginal FAs to plug holes, and go into next year w/ Blake starting at points and Nic/Martell starting at SF, I will view the VC trade (and, even more so, the Wallace trade, but that’s beside the point) as a MASSIVE missed opportunity.
(Incidentally, unlike Mr. Fatty, I don’t put Jefferson in the same category. He’s not much better than Outlaw and is terribly, outrageously, egregiously overpaid.)
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
appropriate addendum
KP’s decision not to pull the trigger on VC is still an incomplete, right now, because we don’t know what cards remain to be played this summer
I am no longer able to participate in this discussion due to a moderators request...
by TrentEdwardsHoF2018
by Screen Name on May 16, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
thanks g
rec
Though patience be a tired mare, yet she will plod. - William Shakespeare
Roses are red
violets in bloom
Sophia’s in love
with Nicholas Batum
-Bow4Meow
I look forward
to some industrious BEdger taking a deeper look to highlight his deficiencies comparative to those three. Including Wade would seem appropriate as well. This was an awesome exercise and thoroughly enjoyable and inspiring.
I am no longer able to participate in this discussion due to a moderators request...
by TrentEdwardsHoF2018
The difference...
Roy is in this company because of low mistake basketball. But, while Jordan/Lebron/Kobe/etc might have higher turnover rates in a typical season, they also have higher usage rates and (in some cases) higher assist percentages, greater true shooting percentages, and greater usage percentages.
So if a higher turnover rate would lead to more efficient offense overall, then it’s justified and not necessarily a bad thing.
For instance, I’m guessing Lebron this season is not on this list because he had a higher turnover rate than BRoy. But he probably also scored much more efficiently and more often and created more assists. That’s a net positive.
I would be perfectly happy with Roy upping his turnover rate a bit if he can generate even more offense that he already does. That would potentially lead to more wins, as it has for Jordan, Lebron, etc.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on May 16, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
it's a good point.
I don’t think this post wast saying that Roy was better than those elite players… it was just pointing out the rarity of Roy’s skill set.
draft rodrigue beaubois
Some new nickname ideas for Brandon inspired by this brilliant fan post.
Flawless.
The Perfectionist.
The Purist.
The Immaculate Perfection.
Mr. Crunchtime.
Mr. Clutch
The Regulator
"Death is not final," Gita says. "If any man thinks that he slays, and if another thinks that he is slain, neither knows the truth. The Eternal in man cannot kill: the Eternal in man cannot die. The soul in man is neither born nor does it die. Weapons cannot cut it; fire cannot burn it; water cannot drown it.
The Bhagavad Gita
In honor of Sophia
We could also call Brandon O.G. as in Offensive Genius, Off-Guard and Original Gangsta as he is the first Blazer to reach On Ball Protection Racket status. Additionally, you get to say It’s a lob from O.G. to GO BOOM SHAKALAKA!!!
"Death is not final," Gita says. "If any man thinks that he slays, and if another thinks that he is slain, neither knows the truth. The Eternal in man cannot kill: the Eternal in man cannot die. The soul in man is neither born nor does it die. Weapons cannot cut it; fire cannot burn it; water cannot drown it.
The Bhagavad Gita
Elite company
Seasons from only four players showed up: Jordan five times (87/88, 89/90, 90/91, 91/92, 92/93), Brandon twice (07/08, 08/09), Carter twice (04/05, 08/09), and Kobe twice (05/06, 08/09).
Incredible.
Brandon > K*be & Carter
Brandon +/-(eventually=?) MJ
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
What I mean is
Brandon is the only one besides MJ to accomplis this in consecutive seasons.
There’s no reason to think these numbers are anything but his career averages from here on out.
I love Brandon!!!
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 16, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I feel bad for the people that didn't draft Roy.
Players that went before Roy in the draft:
Andrea Bargnani
LaMarcus Aldridge
Adam Morrison
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden Williams
And of course we got both Aldridge and Roy through trades, trading up Thomas to get Aldridge, and trading the 7th pick, Foye, for Roy.
Talk about making a lot of people look foolish…
"We Believe" - Rudy Fernandez
I believe the term is
“pritchslapped”
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 16, 2009 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions
The term "pritchslapped" should be pritchslapped.
by MiledAnimal on May 16, 2009 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions
And yet
there are still Blazer fans (and bloggers?) who will insist that Roy should move over and play PG or SF for significant stretches of the game so Rudy has the opportunity for more PT
That’s what I find to be “incredible” and “amazing”
Roy was actually better at SF than he was at SG. He played the SF for 13 minutes per game, and was extremely effective.
draft rodrigue beaubois
Love his versatility
and your sig
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 16, 2009 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Why is that a problem?
it’s precisely his versatility that makes him such a threat. Put him at the two-guard, and he’s big enough to shoot over the top, put him at the three and he can drive around those guys, put him at the Point, and he can post-up the smaller point guards all night long. Having Rudy in there (regardless of position) opens up the driving lanes for Brandon (aka, spaces the floor).
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 17, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
I would think it's obvious (but I guess not)
Roy is the kind of player you build a team around; you don’t jerk him around because the other “pieces” don’t fit quite right. Can you imagine Chicago or L*A moving MJ or KB to PG/SF because they had a backup SG who needed more PT?
But that’s what you’re asking Brandon to do, and the sad thing is, he’s probably a selfless-enough teammate to do it, even if he shouldn’t ever have to guard quicker PGs or get posted up by larger SFs to prove anything.
When Drexler came along, Paxson was traded, even though Jim had been an all-star and 2nd team all-NBA. When Petrovic came along and was good enough to “request” more PT, he was dealt away. Rudy is likely to be no better than Paxson or Petro. Roy is in the same league as Clyde.
The conclusion should be a no-brainer (but I guess it isn’t)
I think
Petrovic is a good “ceiling” for Rudy or Ginobli.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 17, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions
eh
Ginobili has had a bunch of seasons better than Drazen’s best… Drazen is not his ceiling.
draft rodrigue beaubois
How about his ceiling is the same as what Drazen's would have been?
I think that’s fair at least. Ginobli does do just about everything better than Drazen did though, except for jump shooting.
Yes! Yes! In the face!
Don't you want to aim higher?
And have Rudy shoot for a “Jim Paxson ceiling”? “Fat Guard” was no slouch, as the 2nd-team all-NBA award would indicate. ( I think Jim held the record for most points in Blazer history, until Clyde passed him. Ramsay had him running off screens and shooting jumpers, much like Rudy’s game, eh?)
Funny as it may seem now, there was also some sentiment to trying Paxson at point guard, so he and Drexler could play in the same backcourt (the more things change, the more they stay the same…) Petro also played out of position at PG with Clyde, but everyone could see that he was miscast there—just as Paxson would’ve been and Rudy would be—because they were/are all “shooting” guards who lacked the footspeed and the latteral quickness to defend opposing PGs, not to mention the ball-handling ability and the floor game to play the position well at the NBA level
doesn't KB play a fair amount of 3
when the L.kers wanna go small?
What is the hang up about positions? Great players defy positions. They aren’t jerked around; they play beyond positions regardless of where they start. The best thing you can hope for is a set of talented versatile role players who can allow your start to take maximum advantage of the matchup.
Oooor were you one of those people who really believed that Clyde and MJ would have actually not been able to synthesize their games? Whatever position you call them, I wouldn’t say their games are so similar as to be redundant.
I have no idea why Rudy and Roy’s would… Rudy’s duty is to develop into a better defender of ANY wing position so that he can play with Roy and not be a liability. Other coaches will constantly try to create mismatches for Roy also so I have a hard time seeing what you are trying to protect him from..
"Slum dunk? You just go to the rim, and crush.. crush the ball in the rim."
- Nic Batum
Other coaches will constantly try to create mismatches for Roy
Of course, but playing a PG/SF in the half-court set on a switch is different than Roy picking up a PG full court for 35 minutes a night, and you know it. Just like choosing to play Roy at SF against some of these 6’10" scoring machines down in the post is another recipe for disaster
I’ve got no chance of “saving” Brandon from anything or anyone. I just observe that he has a chance to be the best SG in TB history and can’t believe that his potential future isn’t “good enough” for those who would like to use his versatility and team-first attitude against him, even if it is only in the court of public opinion. Fortunately, none of you are making the final decision on B-Roy’s playing time (or what position he ultimately defends) so I think he’ll be just fine right where he is
My point remains: don’t expect Rudy to be a long-term Blazer, mainly because he plays the same position as a budding NBA superstar. Perhaps Fernandez can improve his defense to the point of playing alongside Roy more next year, but I suspect you’ve already read the “Combo guard” fanpost that revealed how un-point-guard-like Roy and Rudy’s floor games are, and how counting on them to be the Blazer’s starting backcourts is wishful thinking, at best
were you one of those people who really believed that Clyde and MJ would have actually not been able to synthesize their games?
The point is no one ever asked them to play any position other than shooting guard, and you should be asking yourself why it’s a good idea to “mess” with Brandon, for the sake of Rudy
basically
I don’t considering it messing with Brandon.. as he plays like a combo guard, not a “pure shooting guard” (where’s that metric?).. therefore, playing him with a combo guard makes the most sense – especially if they have skill sets that intermesh. I personally think a Rudy Roy back court could develop perfectly in the offensive sets… I just don’t know if I would ever buy the defense of that backcourt – esp. against quicker guards. Unless there is some third combo guard that could specialize on defense and play equally well with rudy or roy (please be bayless please be bayless).. then I can almost believe in it working..
also.. how many minutes a game does Brandon play at the SG? Has he ever played all of his minutes there (where is there?)? Then why would he start playing all of his minutes on some other position?
"Slum dunk? You just go to the rim, and crush.. crush the ball in the rim."
- Nic Batum
why would he start playing all of his minutes on some other position?
That’s a red herring, I don’t think anyone has suggested that Roy move permanently to another position.
But “to keep Rudy happy” in seasons to come, he will need more minutes than the 10-13 mpg he’ll get backing up Roy at the 2. That will necessitate “moving” Roy to another position for 15+ minutes a game. Against some teams (with slow PGs or smallish SFs) that might not be a “bad” idea. But over time Roy will be forced to guard quicker and/or stronger players, to facilitate Rudy’s need for PT. That’s not an optimal solution. The times that this has happened in Blazer’s history (Paxson, Drexler, Petrovic) the lesser-talented 2-guard has been dealt when the minutes crunch reached critical mass.
strange
You suggested Roy may need to start playing 35mpg at PG when he doesn’t even play 35mpg at SG right now… huh?
If Roy was a pure SG, this conversation would make sense. As it is, he is not. If Roy finds himself stuck guarding people that takes out too much of him and that hurts the team, then we have a problem. If Rudy cannot develop his game to guard some type of fast wing player that it would be tough on Roy to guard, then Rudy has a problem. Until that is a problem, you are just making up problems that don’t exist yet. That’s what I don’t get.. begging the question much lately?
If Rudy and Roy both played like prototypical 2guards.. you would have something also.. but since they play entirely different styles offensively.. again.. the only liability here is on defense. If Rudy cannot develop additional foot speed in order to stay in front of those fast guards that could give Roy problems, clearly the need for a third guard exists. If that need happens constantly, at some point you will be exactly right and we’ll have to trade Rudy for someone who fits what we need more.
But you are just making up problems and pointing to entirely unrelated teams and how they played their players. By the way, if you are confused on the matter, MJ played the position he wanted to play and the people around him stepped up to deal with it. He CONSTANTLY guarded other teams best wings of all flavors.. once you do that.. you are not playing your position pure.. so I really don’t get why he is your example case.
"Slum dunk? You just go to the rim, and crush.. crush the ball in the rim."
- Nic Batum
I think it was either
87-88 or 88-89 but the Bulls PG (was it BJ Armstrong that early?) went down for ten or twelve games and Jordan moved over to the 1 and got something like seven triple doubles in a row. He took the opportunity to say “oh yeah, and I’m the best point guard in the league, too.”
'92 Dream team, too
Stockton got hurt and MJ played “PG” against the world, IIRC
But those are emergency situations (and in the Bull’s case, a lack of planning to not have another backup option for the PG position?) but what you didn’t see was Chicago asking MJ to play major minutes at the PG position heading into a season
And there was a good reason for that
Veddy Nice!
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
I love Brandon
But these specific types of statistical arguments have an arguable premise. It’s reverse engineering statistics. You take someone’s best four or five categories and ask who’s had good seasons in identical ways.
It’s like finding that baseball player whom no one has ever heard of and you say, “but he’s the only person to ever get 5 W’s, 10 Saves, 15 RBI’s and 3 HR’s! Oh, and that’s since 19-whatever year is handy for my argument to look good, and it’s among people who played between 90 and 100 games that year.”
I’m not saying B-Roy’s not the coolest. I’m not denying the awesome of Brandon. I’m just saying I can’t give much weight to these specific types of statistical arguments.
It is cool, though.
by sagcat on May 17, 2009 8:03 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Awesome
Now Brandon needs to do is change his number, get married, cheat on his wife, scowl a lot, and move to Los Angeles and the world will think he is a God!
Don't forget
he has to settle out of court for alot of money for the “cheating” on his wife…
"Death is not final," Gita says. "If any man thinks that he slays, and if another thinks that he is slain, neither knows the truth. The Eternal in man cannot kill: the Eternal in man cannot die. The soul in man is neither born nor does it die. Weapons cannot cut it; fire cannot burn it; water cannot drown it.
The Bhagavad Gita
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Days of NBA Lives: Wherein Roy Hibbert tap-dances to Maine
- Grizzlies Valentine’s Day cards are the key to love
- Kevin Love would like the NBA to take the MLB’s approach on All-Star games
- Kobe Bryant fires a few hilarious salvos at Jeremy Lin
- Brandon Jennings states the obvious regarding his 2014 free agency, everyone goes nuts
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
