Comprehensive Blazer Offseason

by JordanLeDoux on May 15, 2009 10:52 AM PDT Comment 44 comments

Alright, here we go:

Pre-June 30th

Step 1: The good old standby, with a minor tweek. We trade Blake and Sergio to Chicago for Hinrich. This saves Chicago a lot of money, and they get to fill their backup PG spot at the same time with a more reasonable contract. Now, I'd expect Chicago to waive Blake after this trade and keep Sergio, since Blake is payed $4 million and Sergio is payed ~$1 million.

EDIT:

I moved Travis Outlaw to this trade to give Chicago the same flexibility. This is slightly overpaying for Hinrich now, but it's under the assumption that Chicago plans to not guarantee Blake.

Roster Change:
- Steve Blake
- Sergio Rodrigez
- Travis Outlaw
- Cap Space
+ Kirk Hinrich

Post-July 1st

Step 2: Waive rights to Frye, LaFrenz, Ruffin, Shavalik. This clears our maximum realistic cap of about $9.2 million.

Roster Change:
- Channing Frye
- Shavalik Randolph
- Michael Ruffin
- Raef LaFrenz
+ Cap Space

Step 3: We use the #24 pick to draft a backup PF, something like Hansborough, Mullins, etc.

Roster Change:
+ Rookie PF

Step 4: We do a S&T with Toronto. Webster, Cap Space and a 2009 2nd for Marion. (I expect people from both parties won't like this trade, but I think it's a definite improvement, and helps both teams.) Marion's contract would be something like 3-4 years, $25 million (~$8.3 million per). The thing I like about this for Toronto is that it gives them flexibility, rounds out some corners, and gives them value. Webster is both a shooter and defender... both things Toronto lacks. We also give Toronto about $4 million in cap space.

Roster Change:
- Martell Webster
- 2009 2nd Rounder
- Cap Space
+ Shawn Marion

Step 5: Sign both Roy and Aldridge to extensions. Roy at the max (unless for some reason he wants to take less to give the team flexibility... which incidentally isn't something I'd hope for, he deserves to get paid), and Aldridge at about $10 million per. This effectively kills capspace in 2010, but really, who was Portland going to get instead of Roy or Aldridge in 2010 anyway?

Roster Change:
- 2010 Cap Space
+ 2010 Brandon Roy
+ 2010 Lamarcus Aldridge

Step 6: Use our remaining cap to re-sign the recently waived Steve Blake to a 3 year $4 million per contract, with the fourth year unguaranteed (like currently). This would mean that at age 32, we'd basically have a team option on Blake. I expect a lot of criticism for this move, especially since it depends on Chicago waiving him after the trade (although that seems like a no-brainer to me with the trade I proposed), but I think this is a great move with the remaining cap space that is guaranteed to not make us worse, and is likely to make us much better. After this trade, we no longer have appreciable cap space.

Roster Change:
- Cap Space
+ Steve Blake

Step 7: We bring Ime Udoka back for the vet min (which you can do regardless of your cap). Ime was a fan favorite while he was here, is at worst an average defender, has plenty of experience, and would help round out the 3 spot really well.

Roster Change:
- Cap Space
+ Ime Udoka

Step 8: We bring over Joel Freeland to play in the US and fill some minutes at PF if needed. Most likely he'd spend next season in the D-League, but he has been solid in Europe this last year, showing marked improvement, and this could be our last year to bring him over. Serviceable big men will always be valued in the league.

Final Position for 2009 - 2010 season: After this series of moves, none of which I feel are far fetched, Portland would be in prime position to push for the ring next year, and every year after for quite some time. It also positions Portland with a very high quality team at a very cheap price.

The two trades, Hinrich and Marion, have been talked about, although I don't think I've seen the scenarios I outlined tried. Regardless, I like the look of this roster:

PG: Hinrich/Blake/Bayless
SG: Roy/Rudy/Udoka
SF: Marion/Batum/Udoka
PF: Aldridge/Marion/Rookie PF/Freeland
C: Oden/Przybilla/Aldridge/Freeland

All for about $59 million in 2009 and about $69 million in 2010.

Well, fire away.

EDIT:

Corrected for contract realities and CBA quirks.

2 recs | Comment 44 comments

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Comments

Umm, Step 4:

1. You said neither team would likely enjoy this trade, so why bank on it?
2. Why do we want Marion? He’s an injury prone head case.

by Zaig on May 15, 2009 11:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I said fans from neither team would like it... I think the FO of both would do it.

by JordanLeDoux on May 15, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yup. no marion. the guy cares about being THE MAN, and not about winning. he has said as much in interviews.

by dario argento on May 15, 2009 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do not want Marion...

draft rodrigue beaubois

by Cablinasian on May 15, 2009 11:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

me neither

age and ego issues – Elgin

VENTURA: It's drowning. It gives you the complete sensation that you are drowning. It is no good, because you -- I'll put it to you this way, you give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders.

by 22baylor on May 15, 2009 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He just turned 30. That's not too old.

by MiledAnimal on May 15, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

it is for a guy that depended almost entirely on his athleticism

draft rodrigue beaubois

by Cablinasian on May 15, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

everything is good till you said "marion"

I <3 u , but no …

good otherwise though.

Sophia

Though patience be a tired mare, yet she will plod. - William Shakespeare

Roses are red
violets in bloom
Sophia’s in love
with Nicholas Batum
-Bow4Meow

by BlazerFan1 on May 15, 2009 11:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Not sure why Blazer fans seem to think he's like Darius Miles or Zach Randolph...

The guy overvalues himself, but that’s hardly “headcase” material.

by JordanLeDoux on May 15, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He overvalues himself to the detriment of the team he is on

See Phoenix, Miami and Toronto

There a reason he has started burning through teams

formerly fromagnon... I remember back in the day... way back before you young cats were around, back when I ruled the jersey contest... back when it meant something... back when hip-hop was alive

by The Arkitect on May 15, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still disagree

If Portland fans aren’t willing to touch Marion, it’s likely we won’t be championship material for at least 5 years. Marion is about as vanilla as they come for “quirky” players. If the Blazers won’t touch Marion, it puts them in a very difficult spot with very limitted options.

by JordanLeDoux on May 15, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather have Gerald Wallace

He’s younger, and hasn’t worn out his welcome on 3 teams in 2 years

The knock is that he’s injury prone, but compare last years stats to Marion’s

Wallace
Games 71
Points/Game (PPG) 16.6
Rebounds/Game (RPG) 7.8
Steals 121
Blocks (BLK) 67
Assists/Game (APG) 2.7

Marion
Games 69
Points/Game (PPG) 12.9
Rebounds/Game (RPG) 8.5
Steals 89
Blocks (BLK) 66
Assists/Game (APG) 2

Wallace played more games and was better in every major category except rebounding (still an upgrade over what we are getting from the SF right now)

formerly fromagnon... I remember back in the day... way back before you young cats were around, back when I ruled the jersey contest... back when it meant something... back when hip-hop was alive

by The Arkitect on May 15, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh pulease

Marion is a me-first locker room cancer. If that’s the kind of player that brings championships, then my name is Bob Whitsitt

by two4larue on May 15, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i never ever said that

i PERSONALLY dont like him , his attitude and his offense isn’t diverse enough. Basically defensively he’s a small upgrade to what we already have and no upgrade offensively at all. Therefor what we have to give up is too much for what we’ll receive.

that is inefficient as an economist would say

sophia

Though patience be a tired mare, yet she will plod. - William Shakespeare

Roses are red
violets in bloom
Sophia’s in love
with Nicholas Batum
-Bow4Meow

by BlazerFan1 on May 15, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amen

"B-Roy is the best shooting guard I have played against"

-Ron Artest

If Artest can say it, so can I. Broy>Kobe.

by premthegrem on May 15, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

also i recc’d this b/c i think it is a great place to foster the trade arguing and so forth today :)

Though patience be a tired mare, yet she will plod. - William Shakespeare

Roses are red
violets in bloom
Sophia’s in love
with Nicholas Batum
-Bow4Meow

by BlazerFan1 on May 15, 2009 11:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't like the idea...

of trading Blake with the express purpose of Chicago releasing him. First, it seams underhanded, not a novel concept in pro-sports, but something I like to think the Blazers are above. Second, if Chicago releases him, why would he come back to Portland? wouldn’t he rather go somewhere where he can either A.) make more money, or B.) Start? I have a hard time believing that Blake, who is a proven starter in the league would come back to play bench minutes.

formerly fromagnon... I remember back in the day... way back before you young cats were around, back when I ruled the jersey contest... back when it meant something... back when hip-hop was alive

by The Arkitect on May 15, 2009 11:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I have no idea why you feel

tradeing Blake in this way is underhanded. I would hope the Blazers would resign him if he was released by the Bulls after the trade, that is just good basketball thinking.

by usmcr3049 on May 15, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a trade

with a wink wink nudge nudge that you release him and we resign him. the Mavs got in trouble with the L in the Kidd Harris trade over this when they dealt Stackhouse so they resign him right away

formerly fromagnon... I remember back in the day... way back before you young cats were around, back when I ruled the jersey contest... back when it meant something... back when hip-hop was alive

by The Arkitect on May 15, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It happens every season.

See: McDyess.

Denver, and everyone in the league, knew he didn’t want to play there. And everyone knew Denver would waive him.

by JordanLeDoux on May 15, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marion?

Shouldn’t the draft, June 25th, be in the pre June 30 and not post July 1st. I also doubt the blazers draft at 24 or end up with the player they select in that spot.

Sleeping under an avalanche with Cartman, wake me Sept 3.

by trumpetduck on May 15, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, it probably should be.

by JordanLeDoux on May 15, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rec for assembling a complete and realistic makeover plan

that addresses all our needs, instead of a one-off trade.

The HoopsHype.com summary on Marion, who just turned 30:

May very well be the best athlete in the league… Outstanding leaping skills… Jumps high and many times in a short period of time… That’s a good thing if you want to grab a rebound… At 6-7, he grabs almost 10 per night… Ugly shooting mechanic… His accuracy is good… Drives to the basket without fear… Runs the floor with the best of them… Great defender… Guards multiple positions… Never gets tired… Quite an underrated player.

Marion’s got to be looking to revive his career after a bad year in Toronto. If he would be willing to sign with us for $8.3 million per year, he’d have a great chance to get a ring.

Two problems:

$8.3 million is half of what he made this season, and you have to wonder whether he’d agree to drop so far in pay.
Would he accept being the third option at best on the Blazers?

by MiledAnimal on May 15, 2009 11:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It's a little bit contentious for sure.

I think he’d do it if he was confident that Portland would make him part of our main plan for the next few years, especially if we gave him max raises after the $8.3 million, which I’d be fine with on a 3 year contract. With the terrible free agent market this off season, I think he’ll get a better deal, including raises and team situation, from this contract than anything else he can be offered. He has a legit shot at getting a ring next year, and he has a GREAT shot at getting a ring before his contract is up.

by JordanLeDoux on May 15, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have seen no evidence

that he would accept a 50 percent pay cut or being the third option on ANY team, taking into account his antics over the past three years. – Elgin

by 22baylor on May 15, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can someoen please link me articles to these antics? I think Jailblazer era has damaged the brains of some of the fans around here.

by JordanLeDoux on May 15, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gah, typos...

“articles of these antics”, “think the Jailblazer era”.

by JordanLeDoux on May 15, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ask and you shall receive

formerly fromagnon... I remember back in the day... way back before you young cats were around, back when I ruled the jersey contest... back when it meant something... back when hip-hop was alive

by The Arkitect on May 15, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have link issues

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jack_mccallum/09/27/marion/

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3629437

formerly fromagnon... I remember back in the day... way back before you young cats were around, back when I ruled the jersey contest... back when it meant something... back when hip-hop was alive

by The Arkitect on May 15, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So basically Marion takes things too personally?

So does Aldridge. What’s your point?

by JordanLeDoux on May 15, 2009 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone looking into getting Marion needs to read the D’Antoni SSOL book. It was Marion who was at the crux of the Phoenix issue.

draft rodrigue beaubois

by Cablinasian on May 15, 2009 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Blake has value

Step 1: No way Chicago releases Blake for nothing. Several teams have come knocking in the past couple years about him, looking to use him as a reliable backup. Chicago does not take Sergio and Travis for Hinrich. They think he’s worth more than that.

Step 2: Fine with me, though it’s unclear if the Blazers will renounce Frye if they think they can do a sign and trade to get a trade exception for letting him go. I don’t see why Frye doesn’t agree to one.

Step 3: The only issue here is picking up someone at #24 who can actually contribute. That is unclear in this weak draft.

Step 4: Marion couldn’t get along on the Suns because he wasn’t “the man”. He’s been traded again since then, since he was worth more as an expiring contract to Miami than he was as a player. Marion is going to be looking for a max contract and he’s going to be very bitter about not getting one. Let him be bitter somewhere else, please.

Step 5: Yeah, they both get extended this summer. Roy for the max if he wants, Aldridge for a bit less.

Step 6: The Bulls wouldn’t waive Steve Blake if we did make that trade, which they won’t make. So this is a non-starter.

Step 7: You’re adding Udoka because you’ve traded away two younger, more athletic players? If we did have Marion, Udoka wouldn’t play because the minutes would go to Batum, Marion, and Fernandez. If we don’t we have a bunch of small forwards already.

Step 8: I like the idea of bringing Freeland over as a banger behind Aldridge. Let’s hope he’s ready.

by baduk on May 15, 2009 11:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Step 1

Can a player even be traded prior to July 1st?

It seems that everyone's real problem is they just don't drink enough coffee. They lose their edge, lose track of their priorities, and end up sleeping a third of their life away.

by jlarose78 on May 15, 2009 12:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

2 problems

1: The Bulls won’t waive Blake. He is a solid point guard with a good contract, and the Bulls just traded away their backup point guard to get him.

2: Signing Shawn Marion sounds like a very bad idea. He is a 31-year-old player who has always been heavily dependent on his freakish athleticism. Now that he is starting to slow down, his production has declined for 3 consecutive years. Even if you ignore his attitude issues, Marion is starting to get old and he isn’t the type of player who ages well.

by trk on May 15, 2009 12:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The trade with Chicago will just be Blake and pick(s) for Kirk in my opinion

Here is why: http://www.blogabull.com/2009/5/15/876643/if-the-bulls-want-to-move-kirk

I expect their fans will hate it, but I really think this happens or Kirk won’t move.

"Officiating has to be a science, not an art" - Rick Carlisle

by Norsktroll on May 15, 2009 12:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

you actually think it will happen?

I think it makes too much sense to happen.

draft rodrigue beaubois

by Cablinasian on May 15, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If they are willing to move Kirk at all, yes that seems the most realistic to me

"Officiating has to be a science, not an art" - Rick Carlisle

by Norsktroll on May 15, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'll say just this

guys like s.marion and r.felton i just don’t see coming here or even heinrich.i see a guy or guys pricthard likes.i can seriously see a speedy claxton former spur or a guy like d.lee g.hill.those are the type of guys i see pricthard going after.the bulls are not dumb.paxson will want a lot for heinrich.you guys should stop dreaming up guys and let’s just wait til labor day,to see what pricthard is going to do.

by fatty on May 15, 2009 3:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

it's like

some of you guys are so defiant in what this man is going to do,i seriously would’nt be a bit suprised if he does absolutely nothing.give this group 1 more chance to advance in the playoffs.then next summer make his moves.it would’nt surprise me at all with pricthard.

by fatty on May 15, 2009 3:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That's a good point.

So much speculation, but will anything happen? Quite possibly not. Why mess around with a 54 win team that will be another year more experienced (in a good way) next season? If something is there to make the team better, then absolutely do it, but if not, let’s see what happens.

Of all the things that can be expressed in the printed word – love, hate, fear, joy – true humor is the one that is the most difficult of all. Sarcasm, for example, is an art of delicate subtlety. Yet too many people wield it as a bulldozer – loud, smelly, ugly, and destructive – and think they are being funny.

by T Darkstar on May 15, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good ideas

I think that some of your idead are a little out there but so are some of mine. I dont really like the idea of Marion coming over to our team though and Mullens in the draft wouldnt be a good idea. Did you see him play in college. He is complete garbage and i wouldnt even wish him to the Lakers or Rockets. He needs to stay in college to get an education because he will not have an NBA career. I wouldnt trade Martell either i would give him a shot at playing this season and seeing how he does. As for Outlaw i like him and want to keep him but maybe its just time he moves on to another team so we can deal with the bunched up SF position.

by quezadaz on May 15, 2009 5:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Missed you J-Le

You need to be around more.

"Whatever...I heard Bayless uses a pillowcase as a wallet." --TiH

by prezofdeath on May 15, 2009 11:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What about Bayless for Nash

I think we can make a few deals this off season. We can deal Bayless, Trout and a 2nd round pick to the Suns for Steve Nash, Alando Tucker and a future 1st round pick. Bayless would play really well in that system with Barbosa, J-rich and Amare. While for us Steve Nash can give us a productive couple of seasons while we figure out our point guard situation

by quezadaz on May 16, 2009 12:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs