Draft Lottery: Why I'll be rooting for Washington (I guess)
by Norsktroll on May 14, 2009 7:54 AM PDT
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PrintNext Tuesday May 19, I want the draft lottery balls to bounce in Washington's favor (17.8% chance on top pick, 2nd best) and let them land on #1 or - maybe even better for us - on #2. Why? First, because most of the other teams with good lottery chances are competitors of the Blazers in the Western Conference (so much for the Least), two even in the NW Division. And second, because that opens up the most promising trade options as far as I can see. They don't need to do a trade that high up - but they might. In the following preview discussion I will mostly focus on Griffin and Rubio going 1 and 2. What happens if a team is enamored with another player or Rubio pulls out of the draft is too hard to predict at the moment.
If they land on #2 and take Rubio, we could have two historic chances
Washington is rumored to be one of the teams that while not directly in financial trouble is not keen to pay the luxury tax in the next few years. And for what they achieved last year (nothing, or they wouldn't be high up in the lottery), their payroll is way too generous. Two starters were injured almost all season, but the performance was still bad leading to a firing of the coach mid-season. Of course they could and need to be much stronger next season, but still have to look after their finances.
They already have Gilbert Arenas as their default lead guard. Will they move him over to make him a shooting guard in that scenario? Possible, but doubtful as some fans I asked said. That would create a high-scoring offense, but a suspect defense. He was a tweener coming into the league, and doesn't want to go back there. So would they be willing to trade Rubio? That would be amazing, giving the Blazers the chance to land the best Spanish or arguably European players in a while in short order with Rudy and Rubio. Give them Sergio or even Bayless, Travis, $3 million in cash and as many current or future draft picks as necessary, and take back the contract of Songaila or Pecherov or whoever else they want to shed.
Or even Arenas. He is the face of their franchise yet has a ginormous contract around his neck - and they outbid themselves to sign him to it before the financial problems really began. From a talent perspective, they would trade Rubio. Rubio has high potential, Arenas has proven his skills. Yet from an economic perspective, it could happen even though it's not likely. His contract is worrisome, but especially for a team that is not the first game in town and doesn't have the richest owner in pro sports. Why we should want him: Name a better experienced point guard under 30 who could become available and constantly had a PER above 20 and still above 18 while injured? A tall guard who scores over 20 points and dishes out over 5 assists during his career? You can't. Chris Paul won't come on the market. Neither will Deron Williams. Go big or go home. Arenas' Base Year Compensation expires July 1st. Put any combination of Blake/Sergio/Bayless, Travis/Martell, and even Rudy on the table if the Wizards would be willing to trade.
Again, I know it is unlikely. One can dream. Don't tell me you wouldn't be stoked to have Agent 0 blogging for the Blazers (are shark tanks legal in Oregon?), and playing alongside BRoy. That would be among the most exciting backcourts to watch not just right now but ever. And he is a great mentor to young players, works his tail off in training, and is crazy about winning in a good way.
But hey, his knee! He could be done one day if he re-injures it! Yes, that is part of the reason why he could come on the market unlike other prime guards as "slightly damaged goods". And so what, the same could happen with every player on our roster (two prime candidates) and if it happens to Gil that is too bad, but then we go the medical retirement route again to shed the salary and start again (and I expect the next CBA in 2011 to lay out a better solution than in the Darius Miles case).
And if the Wizards should land #1 and take Griffin, Antawn Jamison could be put on the market sooner rather than later as a consolation prize, a quality veteran forward who can play 3 and 4.
Other teams in order of chance: What happens if...
Kings win (25% odds to win #1):
A bit hard to say. Over on Sactown Royalty they are voting like crazy who to take if they land 1, 2, 3, 4 (the lowest they can drop, since a maximum of three teams can move up. The lottery is really just about the top 3 spots, with all other teams placed in order of the regular season record and after coinflips to break ties). Shockingly the vote for who to take #1 ended dead even. 319 votes Griffin. 319 votes Rubio. Their biggest need in my opinion is clearly point guard. You are not going anywhere with Beno Udrih running your team. So they should take Rubio no matter what in my opinion. (Their fans voted to take Brandon Jennings should they land #3.) But since Griffin is the safer pick and would be an upgrade, who knows. Especially with a GM who is good at finding unusual but good players. But while KP made the Ruffin-Ike trade with them, he already maneuvered around them last year to snatch Bayless (leading to an epic meltdown in the draft day open thread on StR). So who knows if Petrie would be excited to trade with us. I think they are the team to get ahead of if the Blazers want Rubio. 4-1 chance they don't get #1 anyway ;-)
Clippers win (17.7%):
That one is pretty easy. If they go #1, I would pick Griffin and put Z-Bo on the market next day hoping someone takes him off my hands. If they land #2 take Rubio, and try to move Baron Bdizzle Davis who seems pretty disgruntled after just one year and rebuild around Rubio and Eric Gordon. Problem is: The Blazers can use neither of those two veterans. Randolph is a big no go. And contrary to some belief a player like Davis who needs the ball at least as much as Brandon in his hands and benefits from a free-wheeling system isn't the ideal partner for the future of the Blazers, although he is clearly a better player than we have right now on that position. Even our management has hinted that is not an option.
Thunder win (11.9%):
They will take local boy Griffin, case closed. Maybe later try to move Green since the two would conflict for playing time on the PF spot and the Durant as SG experiment has clearly failed. But that wouldn't have to happen immediately. If they land on 2 and Griffin is gone, they might even trade down to take Thabeet since they need a big man for their future and have little use for another guard. If they get Griffin, that team could become scary in the future with a young and solid core.
Wolves win (7.6%):
Though customers. They have no real need for Griffin on a roster with Jefferson and Love who are both on the smaller side, too. So if they go 1 they might pick him and trade him for something they need. Or take Rubio on #1 if they can't find a taker. At any rate they are highly unlikely to trade the pick if they don't move up since they can't attract free agents as easily as other teams.
Grizzlies win (7.5%):
They take Griffin and are as happy as a Grizzly when the salmons are jumping. With Conley and Mayo, there is no real need for another guard. If they land #2, they are hard to assess. Maybe they would be willing to trade the pick at the right price since they are very shallow with wing players and depth in general next year (say hello Travis Outlaw and Sergio Rodriguez).
Warriors win (4.3%):
Another team that's not so easy to figure out. Monta Ellis is not a really good point guard despite all claims to the contrary. Neither is Jamal Crawford, who seems to be also in conflict with Don Nelson. In their running offense, Rubio would bloom. So they very well might go with him.
Knicks win (2.8%):
Reportedly they are really high on Curry if they don't move up in the lottery. Sounds like a team interested to take a guard, and if they land 1 or 2 that wouldn't be Curry (unless Jimmy Dolan has a really bad ownership day). If they don't move into the top 3, they would be one of my prime targets to try and trade up.
Raptors win (1.7%):
Blake Griffin needs to get his passport. Would they ship out Calderon if they land on #2? Or rebuild the Spanish national team point guard rotation.
Bucks win (1.0%):
Milwaukee would likely go with Griffin, and rather let Villanueva go to save cost. If they go by need, you could imagine all kinds of players fitting, but none is a surefire upgrade to what they have. Drafting Rubio would disgruntle Session. A team that might trade their pick (#10) if they don't move up.
Nets win (0.9%):
Hello Blakie, goodbye Yi/Anderson/Williams (at least goodbye to the bench). If they land #2, they would be a prime candidate to trade a Rubio pick.
Bobcats win (0.7%):
Blake Griffin, even if that means moving Diaw to the bench or another team and Okafor would probably also work better as a power forward. Augustin is already their point guard of the future, and even though that might enable them to let Felton go (RFA) for good it would be overkill to take Rubio. Another trade candidate if they move up to 2 or 3.
Pacers win (0.6%):
The chances here are already slim. But if it happens, they could use both Griffin and Rubio. Rubio would enable them to let Jack go (RFA) and keep Ford as the backup. Yet Troy Murphy might be an attractive trading chip if they go with Griffin, too.
Suns win (0.5%):
In the Blazers best interest I hope not, since Rubio would be the perfect replacement to Steve Nash. Or Griffin to Amar'e should he bolt in 2010. But likely they would go with the point guard for the future if they can.
What is your opinion, should we be rooting for the Wizards or someone else? Another team with worse chances to win that already has a good point guard for #2 (Thunder, Grizzlies, Nets, ...)? Which teams going 1, 2, 3 gives us the best chances at landing Rubio, or another player we could use?
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Your trade idea
with Washington is almost identical to the one I just posted. If we’ve though about this, you know KP has too.
Then I rose, wiping the blunts ash from my clothes
Then froze only to blow the herb smoke through my nose
Good breakdown, Thanks.
How long until somebody makes an inflammatory post about how we should have tanked this year to secure some ping pong balls?
The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers
Washington
My feeling is that Washington will be trading their pick but not to Portland, Something in my gut says Toronto is looking to move Chris Bosh and Washington is a likely taker. here is what I think may go down.
To Washington Chris Bosh
To Toronto 1st round pick, Caron Buttler, Darius Songalia
It seems that everyone's real problem is they just don't drink enough coffee. They lose their edge, lose track of their priorities, and end up sleeping a third of their life away.
If washington won the #2 pick
I would ofcourse be willing to take on 1 or 2 of their bad contracts in a trade for it. But as bad as their salary cap situation is, I can’t believe an owner would simply dump the #2 overall pick. Even a package of say,
Bayless $2.1 million
Travis $4 million
A Re-signed Frye @ $4 million
A Re-signed Reaf @ a unguaranteed $3 million
Our 1st round pick
Total package value, (For trade purposes) $13.1 million
For
- over all pick
Darius Songaila $4.5 million – 2 years left
Etan Thomas $7.4 million – 1 year left
DeShawn Stevenson $3.9 million – 2 years left
Total package value, (for trade purposes) $15.8 million
This would work because the Blazers can get under the cap enough to absorb the extra few million. This deal would allow the Wizards to drop a ton of salary if they choose by waving Reaf and Outlaw, also the #24 pick is about $3 million less in salary than the #2 pick, so if they did all of that, they would save about $12.7 million this season, plus an additional $9 million next season, for a total salary shedding move of almost $21.7 million. That is about the best deal Portland could offer, and on talent it is not even close in my view, but that is because I believe Rubio will be great. It would also be an unprecedented move by both the Blazers and the Wizards, but in terms of what Portland would give up to get an unproven talent, and what Washington would let go for just salary cap relief.
Are the Wizards willing to do such a move? I don’t know, but they are at a committed $76,157,670 for next season, which is way over the luxury tax threshold, this trade would put them at $63,457,670, or about $7 million under the threshold. So if we use a $70 million dollar estimate for the luxury tax line, this deal would really save them an additional $6.1 million in tax payments they would not have to make, bringing their total out of pocket savings to $18,857,670 this year. That is alot for a “possible” franchise pg, so maybe they would be willing, but in the NBA isn’t it all about winning?
Don't know why the system messed that up
but the trade should read, #2 over all pick from washington.
Okay, you broke a few rules here.
1. A re-signed Raef LaFrentz must have the first year of his three-year contract FULLY GUARANTEED.
2. I’ve already gone over the countless reasons why Channing Frye will be NON-TENDERED prior to or on 6/30/2009, so there’s no point in rehashing that. Let’s just say it has a lot to do with the one-year, $4,264,761 qualifying offer, a potential no-trade clause — which would kick in if he signed the qualifying offer — his Bird rights (or lack thereof), et cetera.
3. Travis Outlaw’s $3,600,000 salary for next season becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived prior to or on 6/30/2009.
4. You can’t re-sign players until after the July moratorium.
just 4 more reasons
why a trade with Washington to get Rubio is next to impossible.
I will tell you I do not want Arenas
If Arenas came for free with a $0 price tag, I would not want him. Nothing personal, but he would make our team worse. He is not a distributor, he is a shooter. We have too few shots to go around already, and for more efficient scorers in Rudy, Roy, Oden and Aldridge.
Now factoring in he would not be free, and his contract is absolutely freaking insane, and his injuries, forget about it. Please, no Monta Ellis, no Arenas, no SGs-in-a-PGs-body players!
Rubio would be awesome, though.
by matthewcc on May 14, 2009 9:00 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I think he is both, a scorer and a distributor
He has made the step to point guard, which initially nobody believed he could. I think Bayless could turn out that way, but it is a big if and Arenas is maybe the best one to have achieved it. I don’t think we have too many scorers, and such a move would likely subtract 1 or 2 anyway. In the playoffs LMA didn’t step up, Travis disappeared, and Oden is a long way from being an offensive thread. Of course it is a bold and unlikely move, but I think something like that is needed to put the Blazers in championship contention.
"Officiating has to be a science, not an art" - Rick Carlisle
It's not just anyone who can come back after a year off
and rack up 15 dimes in one game on a gimpy knee. I’d take Arenas, but I’d run him through some serious physicals to make sure his knee isn’t going to fall apart before approving the deal.
didn't he like rip our team a pr new one over nate cutting him from the olympic team?
something about droping 50 on us? it was arenas right?
wouldn’t he be considered a cancer for us?
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
That was indeed Gil
but I doubt there’s any lasting beef between him and Nate, especially considering we won that game. And throwing out the cancer term is a little extreme. He was on like a 4 game streak of dropping 50 points per game when we shut him down that time.
I dont understand how that makes him a cancer
He plays with a chip on his shoulder and that is part of what makes him great. I doubt there is enough bad blood to not make an Arenas/Nate marriage untenable.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
Arenas is fantastic
it’s the kind of bold move that would revolutionize the team and make us unguardable. Imagine an Arenas-Roy-Webster-Aldridge-Oden lineup. Who do you leave?
draft rodrigue beaubois
I leave Arenas
VENTURA: It's drowning. It gives you the complete sensation that you are drowning. It is no good, because you -- I'll put it to you this way, you give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders.
Ironically the only guy on that list
with more than one 50 point game to his name.
Injuries so scary though...
He’s been healthy 4/8 years in his career, and he’s 0/2 in the last 2.
He was a shoot first PG, but on Portland he’d no doubt have a different role and he still averaged 6+ assists in 3/4 of his healthy years. My biggest problem is his FG%. If he could learn not to take the hard shots with us because he’s got 4 legit players to pass it to, he’d be awesome. If he continued to shoot 43% then… meh, no thanks.
you mean
Arenas-Roy-Batum-Aldridge-Oden lineup?
Batum will surpass Webster’s offense next year, he is all ready better in every other way.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 17, 2009 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm really surprised
that StR is voting for Jennings at #3, seems really high for him, even though I have a huge man crush on him after “Gunnin’ for that #1 spot”.
Personally, I’m torn here. If Washington get #1 or #2, I’m not sure they can afford to trade Arenas or Rubio in the court of public opinion and will instead most likely look to give teams a couple picks to take Songaila and Mcgee off their hands for a slightly lower contract to get under the tax. Rubio or Arenas could still be available, I think, but the price would probably be steep enough to force us to include Nic.
If they get the third pick (or move up to #4 assuming Sacto/Clips move up), I think the pick can be had for basically cap relief (i.e. Blake for Songaila plus the pick, or maybe just taking Songaila off their hands for nothing). Obviously, there aren’t a whole ton of options for us at this pick (probably Jennings/Curry/Evans, unless we’re REALLY in love with Holiday (Ford has him going 10th), but I wouldn’t mind picking up any of those guys for free, basically, so I’m somewhat torn as to whether I want the Wizards to move up.
the knicks
will win the lottery and take rubio,the coaching staff wants rubio.the only reason why curry was dreamt up again by the dillusional ny media,is because of his friendship with lebron.people like espn spike lee and s.a.smith are still seriously believing that lebron is coming in 2010.stern in a weak year will make sure that the knicks will win the 2009 lottery.
LOL at the Knicks winning the lottery
Their percentage is crap, and if you think the lottery is rigged by the NBA, explain why Oden/Durant went to Portland/Seattle.
Conspiracy Theories
The Blazers and OKC got it because they were due, especially after the previous year, oh and if the Draft is rigged it will be OKC that gets #1, NY will take Brandon Jennings He plays for Italy
It seems that everyone's real problem is they just don't drink enough coffee. They lose their edge, lose track of their priorities, and end up sleeping a third of their life away.
and so far
celtics=garnett allen=rings
sea=durant-okla.city=5 #1’s in the next 2 drafts and 50mil in capspace-great future.
blazers-oden=injury&foul prone=not so hot so far.
Yeah.
54 wins is terrible.
If only we had Drrant fronting Yao during the Rockets series. What an asset he would have been.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 14, 2009 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Ahh
So Stern knew about the Allen and Garnett trades before the draft, that is why he kept Boston from getting a top 2 pick. Stern also knew that a team with 3 old guys wouldn’t get injured at all and would win the finals. Stern also knew that Oden would need microfracture before his rookie year.
All makes sense now.
I would kill for Rubio
Given Nate’s track record of developing young Spanish point guards, it’s almost a no brainer to do whatever it takes (including taking on a lot of long over priced contracts and trading any player on the roster) to go get Rubio.
Get the deal done KP or I will find you and give you an atomic wedgie!
Nice. But I think Rubio is so good not even Nate could screw that up, to say it harsh
"Officiating has to be a science, not an art" - Rick Carlisle
I don't think nates boggle with sergio has anything to do with skills but everything to do with attitude.
nates, and sergios just don’t mesh.
sergio is a sympathy seeker and nate is a hard nosed show compassion but don’t wipe their butts type.
sergio just wants his butt wiped.
I worry about rubio being the same way. Spoiled becuase of his talent, but when someone actually tries to harness that talent and mold it, they faulter….. and pout.
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Yeah... no
This is just wrong. If you’re not going to do even a little reading about the relationship between the two, don’t both posting crap like this.
A track record of one.
Yeah, right.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 14, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Can you think of another NBA coach
With a worse track record with Spanish rookie point guards than Nate?
I should have been one cowboy.
what if i told you john stockton was Spanish?
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
I just don't want the Thunder to get a top 2 pick
I think the Kings deserve to get Griffin or Rubio.
after the donahueeeleleley (crooked ref) scam...
yeah they should get the first 2 picks.
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
i want the griz to win the lottery
because we all know they value expiring contracts more then anyone else
"Howard, he know me" Rudy
different idea
give them a deal involving Rudy for Caron and their #1 next year
Best of Senator Clay Davis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI4-QyAzY64&feature=related
Why you hatin' on Rudy?
I’d rather see Outlaw go than Rudy (and I’m a pretty big Outlaw supporter.)
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 14, 2009 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions
well
I like Rudy. But, I think the idea of shopping the 2nd (well 3rd, really) best Spanish player to the team that will get Rubio could potentially be very attractive to Washington.
That and Caron, when healthy, is an All Star.
Blake/Bayless (Send Sergio to Wash too lol)
Roy/Webs
Butler/Batum
LMA/[insert backup PF here]
Oden/Joel (or vice versa)
that’s a very very good lineup
Best of Senator Clay Davis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI4-QyAzY64&feature=related
I could deal
with that line-up, without Rudy, except that doesn’t address the PG issue. We need something to happen with PG (beside Sergio getting traded).
Sixty-percent of the time, it works one-hundred percent of the time.
not much we can do
other than try and get a free agent
Best of Senator Clay Davis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI4-QyAzY64&feature=related
Who?
Miller or Bibby?
Not much of a Blake upgrade.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 14, 2009 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I hope the Clippers win.
That’s where lottery picks go to die.
"Respect everyone, fear no one." -TP
by Arby on May 14, 2009 12:02 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Guess what?
We’re not in the lottery.
Still not tired of that fact.
Diet. Dr. Pepper.
by TheTinfoil on May 14, 2009 12:50 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Heck yeah!!!!
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on May 14, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
actually, Norsk,
most of the other teams with good lottery chances are competitors of the Blazers in the Western Conference (so much for the Least),
That there are more Western teams so deep in the lottery is an indication of extreme top-heaviness in the West (more good to great teams). The East is still the least, they’re just mediocre from bottom to near the top, while the West has a couple truly terrible teams, and several really good ones.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
i think the point is that they used to be worse from top to bottom AND have the worst teams overall..that they aren't that way now could be a sign of change..
but its not. it just so happens that the east has made a lot of trades for established stars in recent years and traded away their futures by way of lottery picks (KG Ray Allen Jason Richardson trades to name a few). When you look at the “bad” teams in the west, its a little scary because all they need is a few years. OKC, Memphis, and Minny will get better with a few years of development for instance.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
Antawn Jamison is good on offense
Garbage on defense.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
Update: On Bright Side of the Sun is a post detailing the chances to land 1, 2 or 3 for all 14 teams
My post just details the odds to land the #1 pick in the brackets.
http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2009/5/13/873549/the-suns-slim-draft-lottery-odds
"Officiating has to be a science, not an art" - Rick Carlisle
which rookie point guard do you want more?
ty lawson
rubio
gennings
bayless leaves over my dead body
Until further notice: 1. Rubio 2. Jennings 3. Lawson
Jennings arguably has more potential than Lawson, but is not as NBA ready so the Blazers might think otherwise. Both can’t touch Rubio.
"Officiating has to be a science, not an art" - Rick Carlisle
by Norsktroll on May 14, 2009 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Jennings is such a weird prospect.
I think he might have actually gotten better in Europe, but somehow his draft stock slipped because his numbers did. He’s playing better defense and making smarter plays. It just such a strange situation with him.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 14, 2009 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions
That kid who is considering skipping his senior year in HS mentioned that
His numbers would be a lot worse in Europe than if he finished HS and did one year of college. This means his draft stock would drop. BUT, as a player he’d get better, which would help in the long run.
Jennings admitted in interviews he should have gone to a slightly worse club where they would have needed him more
Roma’s roster this year was pretty ill constructed, and had two more pure point guards than Jennings. He was not the default starter much less star, and thus came in a similar situation to Petteri Koponen not being able to showcase all his talents and put up highly respectable numbers. He still learned a lot in training and in playing against much better defenders than on the college level, but in doing so risked that his numbers would look bad compared to a player lighting up inferior teams.
The worst thing a HS player could do would be joining an absolute elite club where he is just sitting on the bench, especially in a league like Greece or Israel where the top are just 2 clubs. The second tier in a competitive league should be the better way.
"Officiating has to be a science, not an art" - Rick Carlisle
Griffin vs Rubio
is no contest as far as BPA is concerned. Griffin is so far ahead of Rubio that taking Rubio over Griffin with the #1 pick simply won’t happen, teams would rather trade down to grab Rubio.
"B-Roy is the best shooting guard I have played against"
-Ron Artest
If Artest can say it, so can I. Broy>Kobe.
by premthegrem on May 14, 2009 8:01 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Norsky...
Over at ESPN insider they posted a new rumor about Washington possibly using their pick to acquire Amare Stoudamire. Before the trade deadline, there was a lot of talk about the Blazers acquiring Amare. Could this be our path to obtaining Washington’s pick and that Spanish kid everyone’s so googly over? Or is it too late?
"The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over."
They already sort of squashed that rumor.
The Wizards would have to surrender the pick and at least one of their three all-stars in any package for a player of that caliber (expiring contracts are not going to cut it). And that still might not be enough. — The Washington Post
No one really wants Jamison or Arenas, and Butler + the #2 pick is just too much to give up for Amare. I doubt they could pull it off.
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 14, 2009 11:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I really don't understand why they would want him
unless they plan on starting him at the PF spot. He’s so much better when he doesn’t have to guard opposing Centers.
My avatar is 3 years into the future for sure...
WE DON'T HAVE TO MOVE INTO THE TOP 3 TO GET A GOOD PG!!!!!!!!
I don’t understand all this talk about moving into the Top 3 to get Rubio. Yes he is good, but we don’t have to move up that high to get a solid PG. We have a pretty good team as it is, what we need is a guy who can defend, push th ball, and penetrate to open up shots for the rest of our stars. And the one thing that has been said about the 2009 draft is the solid crop of PGs…
Steph Curry?
Tywon Lawson?
even Eric Maynor?
All of these guys will be available at the bottom of the lottery or even later, where we wouldn’t have to give up many assets to move. I think that’s a better approach than to ship off a bunch of assests to move up. Save them to get a quality wing like Gerald Wallace, Caron Butler, maybe Rudy Gay?
Speaking of Butler, he would be the one I’d want if the Wizards would get Griffin. Arenas and Jamison are good but adding older, oft-injured egos to our locker room doesn’t sound like the best idea to me.
by rip_city_swagger on May 15, 2009 11:30 AM PDT reply actions
Here's the difference.
Stephon Curry has a great shot when he’s set. He can run the offense in the college level. He’s not a great passer and his defense is suspect. He could be a good role playing PG or a guy off the bench for a good team.
Ty Lawson is also a serviceable PG at the NBA level. Eric Maynor might be a good pickup for some teams as well, though I doubt he’ll ever be more than a back-up or a starter for a team without a better option.
Ricky Rubio’s skill set at this age, his size and his performances against high-level competition indicate that he could be a truly outstanding PG, even at the NBA level. You can’t predict for sure that he’ll have a CP3 or Deron Williams level impact for certain. But there’s a lot there to suggest that he could be that level of player. The only knock on his game is that he’s not always a consistent scorer. Other than that, he is far and away better at every aspect of the game than the three players you listed.
I’m not in favor of trading any of the Big 3 to get him, but if you can do it and not trade any of them you’d have to consider it.
Yes! Yes! In the face!
This is the most well articulated argument I've ever heard...
…to trade for a $100 million dollar contract for a guy whose chronic knee injuries have caused him to sit out for two years, and whose team immediately and mysteriously got MUCH better and started winning MORE games right after the last time he got hurt.
Gilbert is a scorer. Pure and simple. He’s not a winner. He doesn’t play good D, create shots for others, keep the ball moving, score particularly efficiently, demand a consistent double team, or any of the other things that would justify his near max contact. And THAT’s when he’s healthy.
Norsk, you’re a bizarre mix of eloquence and insanity. Hanging on by a very thin thread. This proposal tends strongly towards the latter.
In sum:
Entertaining? Yes. Quickest single dynasty killing move I can think of? Double yes.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
Hold on, the Wizards were better without Arenas?
I admit that I sometimes tend to subscribe to the FreeDarko school of basketball to look more for individual than team performance and offense over defense (though I’m not one of the worse offenders here and would highly welcome a Kirk Hinrich or a better perimeter defender on the wing). But Arenas is not exactly an example of Simmons’ Ewing theory. When he joined the team they were rebuilding and finished the season 25-57 in 2004. The next year they improved drastically to 45-37 (2nd in division), followed by 42-40 (2nd), 41-41 (2nd) and 43-39 (2nd). They had the problem that they met LeBrons Cavs in the first round of the playoffs all the time. Now they played 19-63 and placed 5th. Was that all the loss of Haywood? As I said I don’t think it’s likely we land him (neither is Rubio), but it would be one of the few altering moves that puts the team on a new level I could image in right now.
"Officiating has to be a science, not an art" - Rick Carlisle
Looking at their 07 record
Looks like Gilbert got hurt earlier than I recalled. They did start the season that year losing their first 5 games, and then turned things around when he got injured around game 8, but that’s a little too early to really draw any conclusions. Just seems strange that they locked down the same seed without him and, if anything, got a little better after he went down.
Doesn’t mean he didn’t help them over the few seasons before that, of course. I’m not really claiming Gilbert is a losing player. But he’s the type of player who takes enough shots, makes enough money, and has enough deficiencies that he locks you in that frustrating middle ground between rebuilding and truly contending – you’ll probably make the playoffs with Agent Zero, but you’re never winning a title.
Of course, if Gilbert were the fourth best guy, and was willing to defer, that wouldn’t be the case. But he’s not making “fourth guy” money. PA may be loaded, but he’s not giving Roy a max deal, LMA a $10 mil plus deal, saving money for other developing young talent, AND bringing in Gilbert at near max. Committing that level of resources to a guy bringing what Arenas brings to the table would be an awful decision for the Blazers, IMO.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
sanity test: would you want to trade for tmac norks?
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
I ask because I don't see how Gilbert makes any sense.
you mention boom-dizzle doesn’t make sense based on his need for the ball taking away from Roy—Arenas isn’t the same way?
Other reasons why this doesn’t make sense
he is overconfident to the point of flat out arrogance.
he has a me first personality and is about his own personal achievements over the team (working to score 50 on us while losing the game for his team is an example that comes to mind).
he is a star insofar as allen iverson and carmello anthony are stars. sure they look great but they don’t make those around them better. in fact ditto for jamison which is why the wizards are so awful.
after two severe knee injuries he is not going to be the same player
did i mention he had his last two seasons ended (WAY) early by knee surgery?
really i could go on and on but let me put it this way: I would rather have shawn livingston’s broken body than gilbert arenas. I would rather have any of our three points running the team with their given flaws. i’d rather not sign arenas even as a free agent without giving anything in return.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
Yep
If Agent Zero were a free agent available at half the price tag, the Blazers had the cap room, and could get him without giving up anything in return, he would STILL be a really really bad acquisition IMO.
With no disrespect intended to a very well written post, trading legit assets for Agent Zero this summer and picking up his contract would be up there with Isiah’s best franchise-killing trades as the worst of the past decade.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
The Wizards were better without Arenas?
How many games did they win this year?
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on May 15, 2009 8:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Last year
This year, they had too many injuries. Butler and Jamison are good, but they need a supporting cast.
Last year, they were really struggling, too – until Agent Zero got hurt. Then they rallied, immediately started winning again, and locked down the 5 seed.
Last year, at least, they didn’t seem to miss Gilbert at all. The opposite, in fact.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
Holy crap Norsk--
How on earth do you keep up with all this stuff: euroball, nba drafts, etc.
Do you have a day job? Nice work as usual—rec!
(I feel like a slacker.)
I like the whole team.
GILBERT ARENAS
In 2008 first round playoffs versus Cleveland Cavaliers, I paid $300 for third row seats for game 4, when the Wizards trailed 2-1. It was supposed to be the best game of my life.
But Gilbert ruined it. He entered chucker mode, and shot 10 god-awful perimeter shots in the 4th quarter even though Caron and Jamison had it going on. Bear in mind, Gilbert played 10 games during the regular season, and played Game 1 & 2 (both losses), but didn’t play in Game 3 (a Wizards win), yet Gilbert felt the need to try and take over Game 4, when our season was on the line. I wanted to kill him.
Gilbert did not play in Game 5, and Caron Butler single-handedly led us to a win.
Arenas is a prima donna, who is not nearly as good as he thinks he is. He choked at the foul line in 2006 playoffs Game 6 versus Cavaliers. The Wiz were up 2 with 10 seconds left, and Gilbert missed 2 free throws. lEbron scored to tie the game, and Wiz lost in overtime.
MY point is, if you guys are stupid enough to take Gilbert Arenas, then go ahead.
by John Park Williams on May 16, 2009 11:43 AM PDT reply actions
I've seen Arenas shoot some just crazy shots
28-30 fters early in the shot clock — which gets him on ESPN if he makes it, but he has had an awful lot of 5-22 nights. even worse = 4-26. that’s not helpful, even if every so often he scores 40+.
ignacio
I laughed for ten minutes straight....again....
who do I have to sleep with
for the kings to trade up and get chamlers?
by Travis Mays Hayes on Jun 26, 2008 7:25 PM PDT actions 0 recs
answered by
Pritchard.
I don’t know how, but somehow I have a feeling that would work.
A lonely Kings fan in a sea of gold and purple…
by Jaycee on Jun 26, 2008 7:26 PM PDT up actions 0 recs
and this comment was met with comedy gold in the next reply
Ha!
Before you could get into bed with Pritchard he’d deal you for two good looking nymphomaniacs.
SACTOWN ROYALTY – Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Jun 26, 2008 7:28 PM PDT up recommended Unrec 1
I am no longer able to participate in this discussion due to a moderators request...
by TrentEdwardsHoF2018
by Screen Name on May 17, 2009 3:19 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
lol
only problem is
all the kings men and all the sonics horses don’t add up to the blazers armies. they’re six deep at the PF position!!!!!!!!!
Mikki Moore in the skills challenge! – LPA
by iashwash on Jun 26, 2008 10:45 PM PDT up actions 0 recs
And
I hear the Blazers keep all of their players in a breeding tank. They’re multiplying as we speak!
SACTOWN ROYALTY – Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Jun 26, 2008 10:47 PM PDT up actions 0 recs
pritchard is a mad scientist!!!!!
Mikki Moore in the skills challenge! – LPA
by iashwash on Jun 26, 2008 10:50 PM PDT up actions 0 recs
I am no longer able to participate in this discussion due to a moderators request...
by TrentEdwardsHoF2018
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