Potential and Patience: Jerryd Bayless
by lefty6283 on May 10, 2009 1:29 AM PDT
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PrintDisclaimer: I’m sure by now, most of you are tired of discussing Jerryd Bayless. Please bear with me, as I’m going to try and provide a little bit different look at the whole situation.
Being Blazers fans, we all tend to find our favorite players. Now whether it’s because of their on-court intelligence, first class athleticism, personalities or leadership (both vocal and silent), it doesn’t make a difference. Certain players just seem to have a very divisive quality about them, where people are divided on exactly how good someone is/can be. Never has that been more apparent than with the hot-and-cold relationship between Blazers fans and Jerryd Bayless.
At this point, there seems to be two vastly different opinions on Bayless:
1) He is a hard working kid who will eventually be a perfect fit alongside Brandon Roy, becoming our point guard of the future
OR…
2) He is simply a 2-guard who can’t shoot, stuck in a point guard’s body.
I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle, as both sides have valid arguments that can be backed up. Jerryd definitely can do things our other point guards currently can’t, namely his ability to create shots for himself and get to the free throw line at a very solid rate (1.6 makes per game in 12:24 minutes/game). That number could have been higher had some calls been made that would have been called for more established players. For a comparison, Bayless almost as many FT/game as Blake and Sergio COMBINED, in less than 1/3 the total playing time per game. Bayless also has the will to get better, as he was often reported to be one of the first players at the practice facility, as well as one of the last to leave. So what’s not to like about Bayless?
Bayless definitely needs to improve his shooting from both the field (36.5%), as well as from three (25.9%). As many have pointed out, he also tends to put his head down and drive, frequently ignoring open teammates that have a better look than he does. He also didn’t quite have a 1.5 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio, hardly numbers you’d like to see from a point guard. So why do people believe that Bayless is a long-term answer at PG?
- He is a very good athlete, with a strong, compact body that will have an easier time withstanding contact from attacking the rim.
- He will still only have just turned 21 by the time training camp opens this fall, and has a lot of room for growth.
- He could give our offense another scoring option, who can create shots off the dribble and attack the rim, which would force defenses to collapse.
Before this past season, I did a poll to gauge how BEdgers felt about Jerryd’s chances to become the starting point guard for the Blazers in the near future…here were the results:
Looking at the results, a whopping 87.6% (304 of 347) people polled believe that Bayless would, AT WORST, be our starter by next season… I’m willing to bet that the number wouldn’t be nearly as optimistic if I were to list a poll again now. This just goes to show you how much the culture of Blazers basketball has changed. During the 05-06 season, the majority of Blazers fans talked about “potential”. We had guys like Darius Miles, Zach Randolph, Travis Outlaw, Sebastian Telfair and Martell Webster, just to name a few. Darius and Zach’s bad behavior got them a one way ticket out of town, along with Sebastian Telfair’s trade to Boston for the rights to the 7th pick in the 2006 Draft (which we parlayed into Randy Foye, swiftly sending him to Minnesota along with cash for “The Franchise” Brandon Roy). Travis was a fan favorite then, but now a large portion of Blazers fans are calling for him to be shipped off. Martell missed all but five minutes this season, a huge disappointment for those (including KP and Monty Williams) who believed Martell was primed for a breakout year. Seeing that laundry list of guys who have yet to live up to the promise they sometimes displayed, it’s no wonder that as a whole, people are now wary that Bayless may not be the answer. It’s very hard for fans to be patient, and being Blazers fans, we’ve been through the constant arrests and embarrassments some former players caused, the Twenty-Five Point Pledge and the rebuilding.
The NBA culture is largely a “now” league. Many of us believe that Portland can potentially be a contender in the Western Conference next year, which makes being patient very much a virtue. While very few would disagree with the fact that Bayless had a disappointing season, I just refuse to count out a kid that works so hard, and does everything in his power to become a better player and transform his game into what Coach McMillan wants. Whether you believe Bayless is the long-term answer at point guard or not, all I know is, I wouldn’t bet against him.
To those of you that finished this, thanks for reading, and I'd love to hear your opinions.
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Couldn't have said it better
I love the kid’s work ethic, attitude and tenacity. If he had to be packaged with a few other assets to nab a far superior PG I would be dissappointed, but I’d trust in KP it’s the right move. That being said, given time, I think the kid will grow perfectly into that role alongside Brandon that we all thought was so perfect for him not even a year ago.
You laid out his positives
I will make a case for the other side. I have two main concerns with Bayless, court vision & defense.
Court Vision: One of the most beautiful skills in basketball & It is highly instinctual. Even when an individual wants to learn often times if you don’t have it, you never will. Look at Chris Paul, he always had great court vision throughout his college career. As he is maturing, his scoring is continuing to improve. Meanwhile he is making his team mates look like all stars. One of the reasons he is becoming such a great scorer is he is always a threat to pass, it opens up his opportunities.
Defense: At Arizona, he averaged only 1 steal in 35.7 minutes per game. That is a terrible number by any comparison. Mario Chalmers averaged 2.7 steals per game in only 26 minutes at Kansas & as a rookie in the NBA is nearly averaging 2 steals per game(1.9). In the NBA he averages a mediocre 0.3 steals per game, which puts him at the exact same number per 40 he was averaging at Arizona(1 steal). His defense is suspect & his t-rex arms limit him.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
Steals
I think that is a statistic that is heavily based on the fact of getting into the “flow” of the game. This comes by playing more, which ultimately helps in reading the offense. This plays into the comparison between Chalmers and Bayless. Chalmers averaged 32 MPG in Miami while Bayless averaged 12.4 MPG. This makes these players hardly worth comparing in the NBA careers.
Just as well, it could also be said that steals is a category that is also based on risk taking. I wouldn’t call Rudy a great defender, but he still gets 1.2 steals a game.
I miss Martell. Come back soon!
Steals
are a product of the style of defense and whether you have a big man behind you that allows you to gamble a bit.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 10, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
No, steals are a product of court awareness...
1.) court awareness: getting your hand on the ball that is being controlled by a player you aren’t guarding
2.) learing your opponents game: (experience) we saw Outlaw get that late game steal a couple times this season, it wasn’t his style of defense, it is that Outlaw actually learned his opponents moves and understood how he could poke that ball away.
3.) being aggressive: a lot of what makes a guy good at steals is that he is constantly swiping and trying to put a hand on the ball when his man is dribbling. Yes there is a chance to get a reaching foul, but a lot of Pro’s don’t protect the ball all the time so being aggressive with your hands is something that is learned and anyone can improve.
4.) being in the flow of the game: as mannyfresh put it, the more a player is in the flow of the game the easier it is going to be for them to “feel” an opportunity and react successfully to get a steal, to “know” when and where the good chances are to reach and slap at the ball, etc.
I don’t think that creating steals is necessarily gambling. Most steals I see in the NBA happen two different ways:
A.) The player ball-handling is careless or not totally protecting the ball (see Steve Blake in the playoffs) or
B.) Tapping at the ball when the offensive player creates contact on the perimeter (this is the classic move to start a fast break)
Any player who is active on defense with their Mind, Feet and hands can generate steals, increase opponent turn-overs and not be gambling on defense.
by Portland Dynasty on May 11, 2009 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
That sir
Was a great post. Deserves to be turned green. Hell, even its own fan post. nice job.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 11, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions
here is what I am saying
Player X placed in the guard or wing spots for Miami or Philadelphia will be much more likely to garner steals than player X would in Portland’s defensive scheme. It’s a very important variable that must be controlled for.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 11, 2009 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Rudy leads his opponents +5 PER when he is at the 2
Bayless’s opponents have a +6 PER advantage.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
small and sporatic sample size
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 10, 2009 11:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah you cant really even come close
to evaluating Bayless right now since he has played so few minutes in the NBA. When he was on the floor he never looked comfortable it the role of point guard. At least the type of PG Nate wants running his offense, ie. Blake.
He cited college numbers for steals
1 steal every 10 minutes vs
1 steal every 35 minutes
Bring up whatever reasons you want, that’s a huge discrepancy.
by Zaig on May 11, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Look at his college career
1 steal per 35 minutes, in the NBA .3 per 12 = 1 per 40… Very VERY low.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 11, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions
anecdotal
the plural of anecdote is not “data.”
I’d like to see a chart that plots the 5 year development of PG’s and controls for age and years in college.
Then, we could examine whether “court vision” improved or not based upon A/TO ratio, and maybe some other factors.
When I watch basketball now, I see subtle things I’d never have seen 5 years ago. When I play basketball, or raquetball for that matter, I see seams and angles I would not have seen before, I know how to play a few moves ahead and lay the foundation by positioning my opponent. I boxed and trained in MMA for a long time too, again, I see things that when I started, I did not see. As I stepped up and fought against better competition, the process starts over because everything is faster and harder, things feel overwhelming, then it slows down for you and it feels almost like that “I know kung fu” moment from the Matrix.
That’s my anecdote, which is contrary to your anecdote, neither of us have data at the moment to back up our assumptions, but I can speak as an athlete who has a decent background in psychology and learning theory.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 10, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Nice
“the plural of anecdote is not "data."
by upper left corner on May 10, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
not an original quote
it’s originally from Frank Kotsonis then quoted by my Research Methods and Statistics professor.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 11, 2009 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Data = PER
Bayless is -6 against PG opponents & a whopping -14 to SG’s.(I don’t expect him to cover SG’s).
I want to point this out:
Standing somewhere around 6-3, NBA scouts will want to see some point guard skills out of Bayless, and indeed he sees a good amount of time at this position for Arizona. Bayless is not a selfish player, he can certainly find the open man and is pretty gifted passing while on the move, but it’s pretty clear at this point that he’s much more comfortable as a scorer than he is as a playmaker. He has a tendency to pound the ball in the half-court, over-dribbling excessively and making poor decisions when forced to play at a slower tempo(We are the owners of the slowest offensive tempo in the NBA!). Arizona’s offense seems to lack some fluidity at times when he’s running the show, as Bayless has a tendency to create shots first and foremost for himself and then only look to create for others(Basketball IQ, as to when to score & when to pass???).
He is a bad fit in the half court just like Sergio is & I am seriously concerned about him making decisions. Compared to Baron Davis, who was considered a scoring guard who needed to develop passing… In only his first year he averaged twice the amount of assists per 40 that Bayless did. That concerns me. To continue the comparison I made in another post:
Compare Bayless to another Combo guard who only had one year of college experience. Baron Davis. Baron only averaged 6mpg more then Jerryd(18MPG) in his rookie year. Both shot a poor 3Pt . Bayless shoots a much better FT. Baron averaged 2 rebounds, to Jerryd’s 1(Not hard to do with 6 more minutes on the floor each game). What I am concerned about: Davis averaged 3.8 assists, to Jerryd’s 1.5(Putting the per 40 at 8 to 4 in favor of Davis), however Davis only averaged .6 turnovers less in the 6 more minutes. Giving Baron the advantage in A/T Ratio by almost an entire point(Baron: 2.21, Bayless: 1.36). I am very curious about the steals numbers not only in his first year with the Blazers, but his lone season at Arizona as well. 1.2 steals from Baron in his rookie year, yet only 0.3 from Bayless? At Arizona, he only averaged 1.0 steal, for the 35.7 minutes per game he played that is very low.
A lot of people are saying that for Bayless, his 3pt shot going in or not will allow him to drive easier & pass better as well. But Baron Davis had a worse 3pt shot his rookie year, yet averaged more then double the assists per game & shot a very respectable 48.8% from the field, while Bayless only went for 38.3%. 10% difference.
A better comparison is Billups. But compare their defensive numbers & Bayless defensive concerns show their head in my mind.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Sample size
Because of such a small and sporadic sample size, any extrapolations made from this data set would not pass peer review. This data is at best, indicative of Bayless’s inconsistent minutes. If we accept based upon this sample that Bayless sucks, we must also then accept that Steven Hill dwarfs Jordan in his limited sample of minutes.
I really with people would take a course or two in statistics before trying to make arguments or projections based upon them.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 11, 2009 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Steven Hill played roughly
300 times fewer minutes than Bayless this season. It’s not even comparable to say because someone is willing to make assessments based on nearly 700 minutes of PT, that it’s the equivalent to making assessments based on 2 minutes of PT.
actually
any sample size too small to be reliably used to make a prediction is too small. Thus, they are both < a good sample size and thus fit into the subset of samples “not a sample size to make a good projection off of.”
Now, on the continuum of sample sizes, Bayless’s sample is closer to being useful than Hill’s. However, the premise is still the same, if it ain’t big enough or there are other variables to be accounted for, then you can’t use the sample without controlling for those variables/ understanding that the sample is too small to be meaningful.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 11, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Not really
the size of the sample mainly affects the confidence interval. As the sample size gets smaller, the confidence interval (as in, the standard error of the conclusion) will vary. It’s not a binary thing where an arbitrary value exists above which you can say conclusions are valid and below which they are invalid.
For example, with our Hill example, the conclusion based on the data would be that he’s better than Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. He averaged a point a minute, shot 100%, and had 1.5 rebounds/minute. However, because the sample size is minute in this case, there’s such an absurd confidence intercal that his actual ability could fall anywhere from the best player ever, to the worst player in NBA history.
With Jerryd, the stats show that he was a mediocre distributor, great at getting to the line, and an awful shooter. Because there was a much larger sample size, he has a much tighter confidence interval than with Hill. It;s still relatively large in the grand scheme of things, especially compared to LaMarcus or Brandon, but that doesn’t mean it’s anywhere on par with the variance from Hill’s stats.
Regardless, 628 minutes played was apparently enough for fans to conclude that Sergio had no future on the Blazers, and 746 minutes this year was enough for us to conclude this year that Channing isn’t actually as good as he looked at the end of last year, so drawing the line at 655 is pretty arbitrary. While you can’t make any definitive conclusions based on his play, that doesn’t mean it’s completely meaningless.
Thus, the continuum comment
Bayless’s is closer to being useful for making a prediction you could be confident in than Hills.
I’m trying to illustrate the problem of small sample sizes, not say that the samples are exactly the same or that Bayless’s sample is worthless. I am saying it’s not very helpful IMO.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 11, 2009 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Say what?
Did you just call a sample size of 2 minutes the same as a sample size of 700 minutes?
So if you want 50 participants in a study and you only get 45 that would be the same as getting 1? Cool, makes sense.
no,
I said it was too small,
I said both were too small, to help the non-stat people see the problems with a small sample size.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 11, 2009 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions
*"any sample size too small to be reliably used to make a prediction is too small."*
This really makes all sample sizes that are too small sound equal. They are not.
700 minutes isn’t the smallest of sample sizes in the world either.
did you understand the gist of the comment?
Or would you perhaps like to bicker over minutia and technicalities?
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 12, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Chery picking comparisons
You go with Davis.
I could go with Billups, Devon Harris,or even Deron Williams. There are plenty of PGs, who were very good off the dribble and who started off with relatively low assist numbers and outside shooting problems, who have gone on to be good scorers and good play-makers.
Both Billups and Harris where traded by the teams who drafted them before they had their break-out years. I don’t want to spend a decade regretting that we let Bayless go without every giving him a decent shot.
by upper left corner on May 11, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
BAYLESS IS NOT BILLUPS!
11.1ppg, 4.3apg, 2.2rpg, 1.5spg, and 2.31topg in 25.4mpg. That is a pretty good rookie year. (These are his Celtic numbers because he played 51 games. Taking into account his Toronto numbers hurts him a bit.)
I’m not exactly sure how you’d consider Billups starting out with poor assist numbers seeing as how per minute, they are almost identical to this year.
.169apm his rookie year.
.181apm this year.
Billups played slightly more than double Jerryd’s minutes his rookie year. Double Bayless numbers and you have this comparison.
8.6p, 3a, 2.2r, .6s, 2.12to vs
11.1p, 4.3a, 2.2r, 1.5s, 2.31to.
In other words, quit comparing Bayless to Billups, since Billups scored, passed, and defended better his rookie year, while getting a whopping .19to per game more. The only reason Billups became a “late developer” was because of injuries in his 2nd and 3rd seasons.
I really wish people would get off the myth that Billups was a late developer and not a guy who started out promising and then got hurt.
The comparison you want to use is Harris who only played 16mpg and averaged 5.7, 2.2, 1.3. (Although he still averaged a full steal a game, despite not having time to “get into the flow of things.”)
Billups wasn't Billups for about 4 seasons
Billups did not average 4 assists per game in his first four seasons. He was primarily known for penetration during those early years. Billups played for 3 or 4 teams before he finally found his niche in Detroit.
by upper left corner on May 11, 2009 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Dude, seriously?
Billups averaged 3.93 apg his ROOKIE year, and then he was plagued by injuries for the next 2 years. Shoot in his 54 games with Boston he was averaging 4.3apg in 25.4mpg.
Billups had a good rookie year.
Bayless did not.
There isn’t a great comparison here. Billups was only a late bloomer because of his injuries. If you can’t see this then… I dunno.
You are rewriting history
Here is the link to Billups career stats at ESPN: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/stats?playerId=63
He did not break 4 assists per game for his first four seasons. Made it to 5.5/game in season six and then was back to 3.9/game in season six. Most of that time he was averaging around 30 min/game
His shooting percentage was not above .400 for his first three seasons.
Detroit was his 5th team.
My point is not to say that Bayless = Billups or Harris or Williams. My point is that we don’t know what he is at this point. I cited the three players above as examples of guys who were primarily known for penetrating when they came into the league and who have become good play-makers.
Bayless minutes and his role were very inconsistent. His season stats are bad, but his stats certainly should improvement with more minutes. To me, given his physical skills, attitude and work ethic there is every reason to be optimistic.
by upper left corner on May 12, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Try basketball-reference
Zaig is right, he was averaging 4.3 assists in 25 mpg before he got dealt to Toronto. Whether that classifies as a “good” year is debatable, but it was certainly better than Bayless’s, as was Harris’s, as demonstrated by their significantly higher PERs.
More analysis.
Bayless averaged 4.0 assists/game on 20 min per game while Blake was out.
For that stretch of games Bayless’ per minute assist stats were very comparable to the rookie numbers of all three of the guys I cited.
Small sample size may mean the comparison is invalid, but given the way Bayless was used this year, it is not the least bit surprising that his season stats were lousy. It seems likely that he was pressing and trying too hard to please in very short stints.
Until he gets 15-20 minutes a night for a half-season, I don’t think anyone can reliably evaluate his play. We can argue all day about whether or not he “earned” those minutes, but it is what it is. Most rookie points who were lottery picks are given those kind of minutes from day one. Bayless came into a situation where that didn’t happen. Nate was already trying to integrate three rookies into the rotation. I can see why he went with Sergio, but there is no question that Bayless was put in a very difficult position.
No one should make definitive statements about his future. We haven’t seen enough to say.
by upper left corner on May 12, 2009 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Billups, Harris, Williams
All are good scorers, earned their minutes on their respective teams.
Bayless has not proven to be even a consistent scorer.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 11, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions
in the 12 games Blake missed with the shoulder injury,
including the Philly game (where Bayless was 1-11), his numbers were
23.7 minutes, 9.8 points, 2.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, (35-78) 44.9% FG, (3-13) 23.1% 3PT, (45/53) 84.9% FT
projected to 32 minutes (around what a typical starter gets), his numbers for that stretch would be: 14.9 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists. While that doesn’t blow you away by any stretch, that should at least prove that when given consistent playing time, he in fact IS productive and consistent.
"Smile! You're on a poster!!" - Mike Rice
Bayless
A few things I want to point out about the 12 game stretch
Philly: Very poor game.
His infamous New Jersey game: 25 minutes, 23 points. Very nice. 3 assists, 0 steals. Poor.
Charlotte: 32 minutes, 14 points. Decent. 4 assists, 0 steals. Poor
Milwaukee: Poor game
Cleveland: Decent coming off the bench as a microwave, minimal contributions besides 10 points.
Wizards: terrible
Clippers: 22 minutes, 5 points. Poor. 6 assists. 1 steal. Good, but can’t put passing & scoring together in one game, again.
Charlotte: 22 minutes, 11 points. Poor(3-8). 2 assists, 0 steals. Poor.
Utah: 24 minutes, 4 points. Poor. 4 assists. Poor.
New Orleans: 24 minutes, 19 points, 6 assists, 2 steals. All good, except Chris Paul was injured & was going against the backup.
Dallas: 34 minutes, 14 points. Good. 4 assists, 4 turnovers, 0 steals. Very bad.
OKC: Very poor game. 26 mins, 3 points, 2 assists.
OKC: Bounced back. Last good game of the season. 28 minutes, 12 points, 8 assists.
Only put together two complete games the entire season. OKC & NO(CP3’s Backup). His assists & steals are far too low, for the talent that surrounds him.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 11, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I think we have reached the point of diminishing returns
Look , I am tiring of our conversation, you seem extremely firm in your opinions. I would likely be considered the same.
I have stated a hundred times that it is an open question as to whether or not Bayless will become an adequate distributor and a solid starting PG. I have also repeated the reason for optimism.
Bayless’ saw limited action on a team with two decent but not great PGs, on a team that was trying to integrate three other rookies. His performance falls into “half empty” vs “half full” territory. A case can be made for either position. The available data is small and inconsistent. I am optimistic, obviously you are not.
We will see. These questions will be answered on the floor. What I have heard leads me to believe that KP and Nate are more likely to share my optimism. KP singled out Bayless and Webster as the two guys he thought were likely to make a big jump over the summer. If I am wrong, then maybe he will be traded.
At some point, we need to acknowledge that this discussion can only be advanced when there is new information.
by upper left corner on May 11, 2009 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Ah yes, the "mystical court vision" argument
Basically this is the “nature vs. nurture” argument of the hardwoods. The problem with this argument is that there is very little substantive data that can be used to evaluate it. Those who believe that PG are born and not bred wax eloquent about the mystical qualities of court vision and claim that you either have it by middle school or you will never develop it.
To me, this seems mostly silly. “Seeing” the court and passing the ball are skills. Skills can be learned. It may be true that a select handful of PGs have some kind of exceptional “gift” or “talent” for seeing angles and the flow of the players that allows them to be better at knowing where there teammates will be open. Magic and Nash are examples of guys who seem to have something special. OTOH, it seems reasonable to me that athletes who have the right physical attributes, the right attitude, and the willingness to work at it can develop this skill.
I am pretty darn good on a pool table. I can “see” the angles and visualize how I need to stroke the cue ball so that I end up where I need to be for my next shot. But I have no illusion that this is anything other than practice in my younger years.
As I look around the NBA, I believe there is an undeniable trend towards more scoring by PGs than 10 or 20 years ago. Part of this is the new rule prohibiting hand checking above the free-throw line. This change really gives an advantage to quick players in general, and to guys with a good first step in particular. Guess what? Almost every review of Bayless’ game remarks on his “devastating” first step, his “explosive” leaping ability, and his outstanding body control in the air.
It seems to me, Bayless does not need to be a magician with the ball, he just needs to learn to use the threat of his scoring to create opportunities for his teammates. He has not yet demonstrated an ability to do this on a consistent basis, but we did see multiple flashes of this during the time Blake was out. On several occasions during that stretch, Bayless started his drive and then as soon as the defense started to collapse to give his defender help, he swung the ball to an open teammate at the three line. On other occasions, he would drive further and then drop the ball to an open big down low. Assuming Bayless gets his outside shooting figured out, and the odds are good given his history, he is going to be a LOAD to defend. Again he doesn’t need to be Magic, he just needs to be competent.
I think we have seen enough to think he can get there. Above everything else, he needs time on the floor. The more decisions he makes the easier they will become. The more mistakes he makes, the sooner he will learn what not to do. He is very smart, a HS honor student who has talked about going to law school when his playing days are done. He shows every indication of being coachable.
The only end to this circular argument is to give the kid a chance and see what happens. To me, it makes sense to see what we have before investing huge assets in bringing in another young point and starting the development process all over again. If we can get a moderate upgrade at an affordable price to ensure more short term success and fewer problems if Bayless doesn’t pan out, that seems prudent.
by upper left corner on May 10, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
I think Billups is a good goal for Bayless
Billups was seen as a scorer and defender in his early years. It took 4 seasons for him to average over 5 assists/game.
But Billups is now considered to be the consummate guy for making his team better. He is an extremely efficient scorer because he is so good at getting to the foul line and he shoots a good percentage form 3.
Billups also has a reputation as a very good, strong, aggressive defender.
Would any of you who dislike Bayless complain if he became another Billups?
by upper left corner on May 10, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I would be a lot more at ease
If we had Chauncey Billups as our starting PG & had Bayless be able to watch him. However waiting & hoping that he is a Chauncey Billups while we hope Roy can cover up for Blake’s decent play… In fact I would be fine if Bayless was actually scoring like Chauncey was in his early years, but he is not, at all.
You talk about Billups reputation as a defender, as if Bayless has that reputation. But he doesn’t. He is -6 against backup PG’s for most the year :?
Some mention draft express raving about his finishing & driving, but when they mention him running the offense in the half court…
Standing somewhere around 6-3, NBA scouts will want to see some point guard skills out of Bayless, and indeed he sees a good amount of time at this position for Arizona. Bayless is not a selfish player, he can certainly find the open man and is pretty gifted passing while on the move, but it’s pretty clear at this point that he’s much more comfortable as a scorer than he is as a playmaker. He has a tendency to pound the ball in the half-court, over-dribbling excessively and making poor decisions when forced to play at a slower tempo(We are the owners of the slowest offensive tempo in the NBA!). Arizona’s offense seems to lack some fluidity at times when he’s running the show, as Bayless has a tendency to create shots first and foremost for himself and then only look to create for others(Basketball IQ, as to when to score & when to pass???).
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Your Dogma ate my Karma
Dear TheGreatDane17,
With all due respect, I am having a hard time discussing this issue with you. To me, your comments in multiple threads seem wholly one-sided. Your basic position seems to be that Bayless sucks: he can’t shoot, he can’t defend, he can’t distribute, and there is little or no chance that he will get better. How is that for a summary?
If the kid is that lousy, why do you think that most scouts and mock drafts had him going between 4-8 in last year’s Draft?
Do you give him credit for any skill or any potential?
I find it frustrating when opinions are stated as facts, and when definitive statements are made about matters that are unknown.
You are obviously knowledgeable and passionate, I just wish our discussion seemed more like an exchange of views rather than just butting heads. :-)
by upper left corner on May 10, 2009 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Bayless
I love his driving & finishing. I love his toughness. I just don’t like him as a decision maker in a half court offense or a defender much. I don’t think he fits, just a personal opinion.
He could potentially one day develop into a starting PG. But I have doubts about him living up to the hype before the draft & his fit on our team. As of now I see him as a 6’3" Nate Robinson. Nothing wrong with that, Robinson is a great 6th man who I have a lot of respect for.
I just personally think we are better off with Mike Conley Jr, not only for our team’s balance(The vast difference in the playing styles) but potentially Oden staying here in Portland(Long term, with Conley) & how much he wants to be that great center we know he is capable of being. One case I would like to bring up is Olajuwon & Drexler winning those two titles in the 1990’s. They know each other’s tendency’s, previous playing experience can have a very positive effect on a team. If we h
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I see their relationship
having a very positive effect on Conley as well. He knows how to run the pick & roll with Oden better then anyone. Knows where he wants the ball, knows where to put the ball as well(Both of which will have positive effects on the entire team in terms of working with Greg on the court). He has the quicks & determination to stay with anyone. Amazingly quick hands. For us, with the talent here… A floor would be Aaron Brooks, but ceiling as high as Chris Paul.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Interesting that you mention Conley
Conley was considered by most to be something of a disappointment during his rookie year. He struggled with his shooting and his PG numbers where below expectations. Low and behold, Hollins came in this season and gave him a chance and now everybody loves his game. The parallel is pretty obvious.
I agree that Conley has appeal both for his skill and his relationship with Oden. H is rather small at 6’1" and 180#, Hollinger says he has had trouble with screens. The obvious question is what would the cost be to acquire him?
If we wanted to go this way, the time would have been last summer when his stock was low.
by upper left corner on May 10, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions
the time would have been last summer when his stock was low.
Correct, the ship has sialed on Conley Jr, unless KP wants to overpay
Lionel Hollins gave MCJ the chance to shine, and he took advantage. Last summer an Outlaw-for-Conley deal would’ve looked one-sided in Portland’s favor, this summer, it’s the other way around. Such are the rising/falling “stocks” that are NBA players, re: trade value
Conley rather small
He is the same size as Chris Paul or Rondo was when he was 21.
I know last summer would have been better but he hadn’t proved himself… I still think we should go after him & he is the piece we need to contend for championships.
Blake
Bayless
Sergio
Outlaw
1st round pick 2009
1st round pick 2011(Will be essentially a 2nd round pick, 30th overall :) )
Three 2nd round picks in 2009
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 11, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Are you really suggesting that trade?
You want to trade a starter, two other rotation players, and a lottery pick rookie along with picks for a promising but not yet developed PG? I am glad you are not our GM.
by upper left corner on May 11, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Trade Blake for Conley
Have nothing but youth and talent at pg, throw them in the deep end and hope one learns to swim. Better than standing pat with Blake or throwing out a talented and hungry player on limited evidence.
You don’t win championships without taking risks. Throw in a pick or two and I don’t see why it wouldn’t work.
Conely is not going to happen. If Mephis was still going back and forth between him and Lowry it might have been possible. However, as soon as Mephis traded Lowry the chances of us trading for Conley became minuscule. Even with Mephis being in trouble financially they are not going to ship out Conley. He has 2 more years on his rookie deal where he will provide cheap value to the team. I doubt they would even listen to offers until he is about to hit restricted free agency and has turned down their long term offer.
Yea
The team that traded away Pau Gasol, for Kwame Brown & picks. Not exactly a notoriously smart franchise. The Conley is not going to happen talk is all drummed up by Bayless fanboys.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 11, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Pau made a little over 15 million this year and will make 34.2 million over the next two years. Conley will make under 9 million over the next two years before he can become a restricted free agent. You cannot really compare the situations. Pau was an unhappy veteran player being paid the max. Conley is a developing player still on his rookie deal. Memphis is not going to dump him.
Bayless comparison
Best: Chauncey Billups
Worst: Fred Jones :O
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions
More Billups myths
He was injured his 2nd and 3rd years. When he was playing, he wasn’t playing at 100%. His fourth year he finally got to play almost a full season, but he still looked slow compared to his rookie year.
Billups and Bayless are not that good of comparison outside of the fact that they are both considered as guys who play good defense. Where this myth came from is beyond me.
Same old thing for me....
It really comes down to who you want running your team. A “pure” point guard that is the floor general and makes sure the blazers plethora of talent are involved and cohesive, as well as taking some of the play making load off of brandon. Or do you want a scoring combo guard out there who is a decent play maker and accels at attacking the hoop but will put more pressure on Roy to handle pg duties offensively. Assume both options can play some D and knock down open 3’s. I want the floor general.
I think the biggest fallacy in the idea that a scoring combo guard is the best pairing next to roy is that Roy needs the ball in his hands to be as effective as we all know he can be. I believe Roy will benefit from having a guy setting him up and helping him get some easier buckets. Roy will still have plenty of opportunities to iso up top and do his thing even if a distributing pg comes in and takes over some of the pick and rolls and what have you. I just think with the talent the blazers have, they dont need a pg that specializes in scoring. They need someone to organize all the scoring options the Blazers already have. If Bayless can develop those instincts, great. But I think the cards are stacked against him developing into the pg we will ultimately need anytime soon. I wouldn’t bet against him getting there eventually, I just wonder how long a contending team can give minutes to an underdeveloped pg. That said, I definitely give him one more year before I consider trading him, barring a trade that brings back a significant upgrade at the pg spot of course…
RUDY > MJ
The PG Debate
I agree with your take. Especially the 2nd paragraph. Roy is one of the few superstars that is not a dominant ball handler, he can have great success playing off the ball. We should take advantage of that.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions
this is not true
Roy is a dominant ball handler, he has a very high usage rate and garners 5 assists a game. Roy has the ball in his hands almost as much, if not more, than our PGs.
As a matter of fact, one of the few criticisms of Roy I have ever heard is that he needs to play off the ball more (from ppl who wanted more motion on the O).
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 11, 2009 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree with this. The next big step for Roy will be improving what he does off the ball. When he is setup by others he frequently will catch the ball with the defender out of position but then hold the ball and let the defender setup before he tries to drive past him.
The big advantage I can see Bayless providing in the years ahead is his ability to penetrate and draw defenders. This will give Brandon more of an edge off the pass out and make it easier for him to get into the lane and finish. The same can be said in reverse as well. With Blake/Rudy/Outlaw/Martell/Batum the pass out from the drive is only going to end up in a 3pt shot or a long two. With Bayless this can end in an easy bucket or a foul. Although I think we will see a big improvement from Rudy in this regard next season.
Spurs
Spurs, known notoriously for slow paced game & defense through their championships… Have three players in the top 50 of usage rate. Oh and btw Parker is ahead of Roy in usage rate. So you can throw that argument out the door.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 11, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Well reasoned argument, I don't completely agree but I appreciate the way you stated your position
Thanks, so often this discussion seems like an exercise in name calling. Folks say, “Bayless is an undersized SG,” like that is all that needs to be said. There is no real analysis and no real discussion.
Your post is different, you are talking about the relative value of different PG skills. You didn’t state your opinions as if they were matters of fact. You didn’t call those who may disagree with you stupid or ignorant. I aspire to that level of reasonableness. Sometimes as in my post above, I just can’t help being a little snarky. Hope to remain civil and respectful.
Now to the substance of your post:
I don’t think it is black and white. Guys are not all play-maker or all scorer, it is a continuum from one to the other. Furthermore, where a player falls on that continuum can change over time. To return to the example I cited above, Billups was not a huge assist man in his first several years he was under 4 AST/game for his first three seasons while playing about 30 minutes/game. Over time, he developed his distributor chops. To cite another example, Deron Williams averaged 4.5 AST/game during his rookie season while playing 30 min./game. These numbers are actually lower than the assist numbers Bayless put up during the stretch when he was getting decent minutes.
I think it is folly for either side of the Bayless debates to make definitive statements about where he will end up on the continuum. It is too early. You can say you are not optimistic and provide evidence to support your position. I can say I think there is good reason to be optimistic and find stats to back my optimism. The proof will be on the floor. If Bayless is given consistent back-up minutes next season, we will have a much better idea of his prospects for development a year from now.
Regarding skills, I think it is essential for our PG to be a credible threat from the 3pt line. We don’t need Blake-like %, but we need someone who is a credible threat. I think having someone who is a threat to penetrate would help our offense a great deal. Right now, when Blake is not hitting and Nic is limited, teams just pack the middle. If we had a point who was a scoring threat it would make it harder for the opposing team to know where the attack is going to come from. I also think having a second guard who can get to the line will help us get teams into the penalty and into foul trouble. More trips to the line would help take the pressure of of our jump shooting.
Finally, we have what we have right now. Blake’s game is limited. Sergio is not a good fit. Bayless is a highly regarded prospect with amazing physical skills, a burning desire to win, and a world class work ethic. To me, it seems pretty obvious that we should find out how good he can become, before we spend a lot of resources trying for low odds trades to bring in a “proven” PG. If we can pick up a moderate upgrade like Hinrich at a reasonable price, great. If, by some miracle, we could move up in the draft to get Rubio without paying a huge price, I would probably support that. I think neither looks very likely at this point.
Give Bayless a chance to show what he can do.
by upper left corner on May 10, 2009 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
good post
rec
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 11, 2009 12:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Even Hollinger, Stat Guru of Gurus, freely admits you can't really accurately measure defense
Bayless is quick, big (enough), and fiery. If he wants to I’m sure he’ll become a good NBA defender.
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on May 11, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
I think we have been spoiled in the rookie play of roy, aldridge, batum and forget that most rookie seasons have a lot of growing pains
especially with point guards and centers. A guy like Bayless is used to being the fastest, most athletic guy on the court, NBA happens and he is right in middle of the pack, look at Aaron Brooks his rookie year. Same with Oden, he was used to being the biggest and strongest dude in the league, now he faces a someone just as big and strong every night. Its a big adjustment and I think for these two guys, we are going to see a world of diffarnce in their respective second years.
by svlittle on May 10, 2009 9:42 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Good point
Centers and PGs are usually the slowest to develop. Deron Williams avg 4.5 Ast/game on nearly 30 minutes per game his rookie season. That is actually a lower rate per minute than Bayless during the time Blake was hurt.
by upper left corner on May 10, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Fact is
He earned those 30 mpg on a Utah team where Sloan rarely likes to play rookies big minutes.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
In the words of a great man
“hurray for small sample size”
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Williams had nobody to compete with on that team. Here are the other guards on the Jazz during Williams rookie season: Devin Brown, Gordan Giricek, Keith McCloud, CJ Miles, Andre Owens, Milt Palicio. Who was going to start for them if not Williams?
Who did we have?
Steve Blake?
If Bayless was all he was hyped up to be he would have took his job, he did not.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 11, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Here are the PERs for each guard on that Jazz team: Brown – 10.3, Giricek – 8.7, Owens – 5.2, Miles 13.8, McLeod – 8.6, Palacio – 9.9. Blake’s PER this year was 14.5. If he was on that Jazz team he would have been the best PG by a large margin.
13.8 < 14.5
.7 difference? Huge margin.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 11, 2009 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions
One of my two favorite players (B-Rex and Marty)
I love the fire and determination that he displays on and off the court. Bayless has a crazy work ethic and is doing everything possible to get into the rotation. Sure, he might make boneheaded plays out there, but he’s trying to crack the guard rotation which includes Roy, Rudy, Blake and Sergio. I would be more concerned with more veteran players making mistakes (like Blake or Travis) than Bayless. Sergio definitely knows how hard it is to get playing time (and confidence from the coach) in his 3 years here.
Although I still don’t take his mistakes lightly, I understand PG (at the NBA level) is a tough position for him to transition into, albeit succeed. I have no problem taking the good with the bad if he can develops into a solid guard alongside Roy. He needs to gain some confidence that comes with experience and playing time, which he didn’t get this past year.
I miss Martell. Come back soon!
Disclaimer: I’m sure by now, most of you are tired of discussing Sergio Rodriguez. Please bear with me, as I’m going to try and provide a little bit different look at the whole situation.
Being Blazers fans, we all tend to find our favorite players. Now whether it’s because of their on-court intelligence, first class athleticism, personalities or leadership (both vocal and silent), it doesn’t make a difference. Certain players just seem to have a very divisive quality about them, where people are divided on exactly how good someone is/can be. Never has that been more apparent than with the hot-and-cold relationship between Blazers fans and Sergio Rodriguez.
At this point, there seems to be two vastly different opinions on Sergio:
1) He is a hard working kid who will eventually be a perfect fit alongside Brandon Roy, becoming our point guard of the future
OR…
2) He is simply a PG who can’t shoot.
I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle, as both sides have valid arguments that can be backed up. Sergio definitely can do things our other point guards currently can’t, namely his ability to create shots for himself and rack up assists at a very solid rate (11.2 assists per 48 minutes). That number could have been higher had some calls been made that would have been called for more established players. For a comparison, Sergio has as many assists/minute as Blake and Bayless COMBINED, playing less than 1/2 the total playing time per game. Sergio also has the will to get better, as he was often reported to be working on his shot throughout the Summer. So what’s not to like about Sergio?
Etc, etc etc. It’s just so easy.
by Timmay! on May 10, 2009 9:55 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
That number could have been higher had some calls been made that would have been called for more established players
That should have read:
That number could have been higher had the bench players been able to make open shots from his on-target passes.
Sorry, thought I proofed it better than that.
funny
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on May 10, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
There is a third opinion: He is a great passer who can't shoot, drive or defend
Making 2 the middle.
"Officiating has to be a science, not an art" - Rick Carlisle
I'm not sure the one about driving applies as much now.
He showed an increased ability to drive, and better finishing at the hoop, during the second half of the season. He also showed off a new shot, the jumper in the lane, which was surprisingly efficient and helped keep the defense a little more honest.
I was as surprised as anyone when all that happened btw.
I couldn’t resist being a little snarky with my original reply. The original post could easily be written about Sergio as Bayless, for the most part. I’ve worked hard to keep an open mind about both players, which has left me wanting to remind others that often their opinion of one player could be applied to the other with minor modifications. But what’s currently happening is, to quote Men in Black, “Old and busted: Sergio. New hotness: Bayless”.
I definitely should have added “and defend” to the end of #2 though, that was my bad. A little horsing around, and I miss a good point. :) I almost added links to the polls about Sergio where everyone proclaimed him the future starter, but I didn’t want to make the post too long, the gist was still there.
anyone think it is funny that
the title of this post is “Potential and Patience” and lefties avitar is a picture of Ha
C*mcast sucks!
Yes.
Same story different year huh “just you wait dood”
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
the new avatar was meant to be funny
I got tired of seeing my ugly mug as an avatar, so I figured I’d find a former Blazer that was as “good looking” as me!
"Smile! You're on a poster!!" - Mike Rice
hey man give your self more credit
I would be surprised if you were uglier than Ha.
I mean his name is a combination of the sound a person makes when they laugh and when they sneeze
C*mcast sucks!
by Blazermaniac77 on May 10, 2009 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good Billups story over at ESPN
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=090511/billups
Excellent read on how Billups became the great point guard he is today. I’m not saying Bayless will be as good as Billups some day, but there definitely are some similarities to their games. And it did take Billups a while to realize his potential in the NBA, partly because a lot of his early coaches and GM’s thought he was a combo guard (sound familiar?) and told him to go out and score. He had to learn how to play the point at the NBA level.
Again, I’m not saying he’ll be as good as Billups, just that we may be judging him a bit prematurely. I think it would be helpful, though, to get a good veteran PG for him to learn from (no disrespect to Blake, but I don’t think he’s that guy).
We sorely need a guy who can get in the lane, yeah Sergio can sorta but he can't finish
Bayless learns to mix in a jump shot and learns when not to go barreling in like a circus freak then we’ve got something. I like his attitude.
Blazer Fan
I'd like to see Sergio's finish rate from first half of season to the second.
I think people have the mindset that Sergio can’t finish, thus they ignore how well he finished post All-Star break.
Or, I could just be like a Bayless fan and remembering the plays the he finishes on and ignoring the plays he misses.
On the flip side, I’d also like to see how Bayless finished in his first 350 and last 350 minutes.
That is the problem
Even in college. He never figured out when to pass, when to shoot, when to drive. Especially in half court offense.
He will be much better off on a team that runs.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 11, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions
For the hundreth time . . .
BRex is a great athlete with a ferocious work ethic. He is
cut more in the mold of a Vinny “The Microwave” Johnson. My ex
roomie (Huge UA Wildcats fan-from Tuscon) told me on draft day
that Bayless’s two greatest assets (besides great athleticism) are
his fearless ability to get to the rim and the great elevation on his jumper.
He didn’t get enough consistant minutes in his ROOKIE year to learn &
develop all of the other skills (passing, team & Pick and roll D, court vision
in team O sets, etc) needed to become a good backup “combo” guard or
PG. Give him some time ! If a young player (Rookie) goes to a lousy, non
playoff team he gets the minutes to develop. In BRex’s case he wasn’t going
to play in front of Blake (Experience, High Assist /TO ratio, great spot up shooter)
and ended up in a battle for back-up duties with Sergio. Due to Sergio’s improvement
and two years in the system as a pure PG, Sergio got/won the job. This development
stagnated BRex in his development. We got to see a glimpse of his potential
when Blake went down, but with the knowledge that he needed a lot more time
to grow into the role. Team and pick & roll defense takes time (Same with GO),
and we know he will get better with his pull up jumper with practice and minutes,
but we don’t need a pure PG, as BRoy is our initiator. Having an aggressive attacking
guard alongside Roy will give the threat we need to keep the double coverage
from cloging his forays into the lane. I know you are in the gym Jerryd, so keep it
up ! Grrrrrrrrr !!!
It's GO time !
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