Roy Wants NBA Title Next Year...Will He Get It. (Updated)
by Blazer1342 on May 10, 2009 1:21 AM PDT
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Roy has stated that he believes the Blazers can go for the NBA Championship next year. This post is an attempt to ascertain whether that statement is feasible from the point of view of my favorite stat, the Team Point Differential. Well maybe not my favorite stat, but a stat that I believe is one of the most pure stats. Unlike the Individual Point Differential that is subject to player rotations of both teams, the Team Point Diff is a fair evaluation of overall team performance.
The numbers in this post are not adjusted for pace, but the data adequately gives a good estimate of whether or not Roy’s appraisal is on target.
Appetizer - The point differential trend chart
Long timers can skip the 2-paragraph explanation. I throw this up first since I’ve posted it 2 or 3 times throughout the season. It does make you wonder if the Blazers were pushing too hard for seeding the last 10-12 games and were exhausted for the playoffs? After game 1 Roy said he was extremely tired.
For those who haven’t seen this chart, it is a chart of point differentials, the season average, a 21 game average, and a 7 game average, plotted against each other. The shorter term 7 game average looks at a smaller segment of the season and gives you an idea of how the Blazers have performed short-term in comparison to the season. Each data point is an average of the last 7 games.
Included is a "strength of schedule" to better evaluate the point differential chart.
The difficulty stat (i.e. strength of schedule) is a crude stat I created to gauge the toughness of the opponent. It also looks at the average toughness of the last seven games, so it should be viewed in consideration of the 7 game point differential stat. This stat oscillates between one and zero, the closer to one the more difficult the schedule.
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The last 14 Seasons of all NBA teams is in this next chart. Actually 15 seasons is used in some of the data below, but the 98-99 season had only 50 games and since I’m using number of wins instead of win% it doesn’t fit in the subsequent chart.
The chart is plotting wins (across the top) against point differential on the left.
A couple points of interest:
At any win level you choose, the delta point difference is always less than 6. i.e. at the 41 game level the spread is from less than –3 to less than +3 (-2.6 to +2.9).
A perpendicular line is drawn at a 41 win game season. In 14 years of data the linear trend line crosses almost exactly at a point diff of "0" when a team wins 41 games. (see two zoomed in charts below)
Secondly: another line is drawn at where the point diff is approximately +9.8. This point diff is chosen because the Blazers had a point diff of 9.8 for the last 21 games of the year.
Drawing upwards from 9.8 on the trend line yields a 68 win season.
This number is clearly elite status. Cleveland (#1) ended this year at 8.9 The Puke yellow and purple (#2) ended the year at 7.7
For the last quarter of the season the Blazers were the cream of the crop. Not only this, but our Point diff averaged above 10 for the last 15 games. Only 3 teams have averaged above 10 for the season in the last 15 years.
Zooming in on the trend line
Where the trend line crosses Zero in these 14 seasons would take an average number of wins of 40.95
Without doubt a point diff of Zero is a .500 team.
This suggests that the team point diff is one of the purest stats available.
Looking at this same zoomed in shot from the left side, when the tend line crosses 41 games the point diff is at +.02
Here’s a table of the last 15 years showing the point diff rank of the NBA champ and the runner up.
There are several things to notice in this chart.
7 of the last 15 years have been won by the team ranked 1st.
A team ranked 1st, if in the finals has never lost.
11 of 15 times the higher ranked team has won.
If this year holds true to trend, 8 of the last 16 years will be won by the #1 ranked team.
Average rank of title winner is 3.13, runner up is 4.80
Minus out the year with the 11th ranked Rockets, 2.57 & 4.92 respectively.
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One more look at the Blazers this year.
Again, at years end the 21 game average was at 9.8, the 7 game average held above 10 for the last 9 data points, which is equal to a 15 game average above 10 for the years end. Stellar indeed.
When writing this post unlike the last 21 games I was just eyeballing the last 15 games, having now calculated it before hitting the florist, The last 16 games had a point diff average of 12.5
As said above the Blazers were the best in the league not just the last 10-12 games but likely for the last 21 games. I say likely because I did not research the other top tier teams but remember that their point diff came down as the season progressed. Orlando I think was the only exception but I don’t think their push was at the end of the season.
Yes, the Blazers were breaking away from the rest of the pack, trying to join the top-level teams at years end. It seems very likely they could parlay this into a championship run next year.
UPDATE
For a better perspective:
We had a win% of .659 this year, we had a Point diff of 5.3 with most of the year below 5 almost scrapping 3 at one point.
Roy said he wants it next year.
If you look at the win% of the point diff winners in the last 15 years (see table below in top of comment section), the range is from .695 to .878 with a point diff range from 6.8 to 12.2 (again us .659 & 5.3)
Bottom line, in both categories we are under the range of the last 15 years of point diff winners.
Conclusion: We absolutely have to play somewhat like the last 21 games (.762 win% and 9.8 point diff) to raise odds of winning an NBA Championship Trophy.
Going into the Finals ranked #1 gives us a 50% chance of a title, going in ranked above the other teams gives us a 75% chance.
Even with no changes the Blazers will be a better team next year. But how much will Oden’s schooling affect progress? Will Roy make another leap, like the one he wasn’t supposed to make this year? Can Travis shake the playoff monkey? Batum? Bayless? LMA? Lots of questions, but point differential says it just may be so.
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Comments
In the table of NBA Champs,
Who lead the NBA in point differential in the years that they didn’t win the title? Apart from that, nice work! Rec.
I was moving kind of fast, I think this is accurate.
GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.
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"The rancor reflected in that remark I won't dignify with comment. But I'll address your general attitude of hopeless negativism." – Everett "O Brother, where art Thou?"
uh....wow
nice job
Tyrannosaurus Rec’ is in the house.
We just need to get a little better on the road and vs top teams and we can do this. Oden. Bayless and Nic coming along would be nice as well.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
I’d say were on the verge...
I think the question is, what happens when we mix in new pieces?
With a solid core there’s probably no worry.
GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The rancor reflected in that remark I won't dignify with comment. But I'll address your general attitude of hopeless negativism." – Everett "O Brother, where art Thou?"
That is the biggest concern foe me
Webster, Nic and TO and whomever we bring in as PF2 (McDyess hopefully, Freeland backing him up) will cause some shake ups.
If we keep TO, that will make the new PF2 a PF3 as Travis is pretty bad at the SF and better at PF. If we lose him we allow the new PF2 to get 10-15mpg.
SF is a total mess as Nic will hopefully be the starter again, but I do not have as much faith in Travis @ SF ans do not know what will come of Webster. Will he be the same 37% jumpshooter or can he take it to that next level? Foot injuries are the toughest to overcome, ask Walton, Yao, and Ilgauskus. Now yeah those are all big men, but Webster will be jumping and running high and landing harder than them also. Then what to do about the Rudy problem. In certain regards I think he is better at the SF or SG if you count Roy as the SF. Rudy will need 30 mpg and that can only come with him at the SG and Roy at the SF. K*be, Vujacic and Fisher/Farmar were used a fair amount of the time down in Cali and I can see that working well here also.
Bottom line is that we need to make room for Nic and Rudy no matter what the cost. Martell and Travis have had their time to grab the reigns and they have not seized them for whatever reason. They are the last of the WhitPatterNash selections, and they may be coming to an end.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
by SpyderRyder on May 10, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
McDyess almost seems like the BEST choice only IF we keep Travis Outlaw too...
I mean, McDyess isn’t at a point in his career where he needs serious minutes every night, but that he will likely get decent minutes due to match-ups, injuries, foul-issues and mos def the playoffs. McDyess is a veteran who is used to winning at this point in his life and I could see him really enjoying the “fresh-breath or air” that is the clubhouse of the Blazers. These guys are all hungry, whether or not the media chooses to question players work ethic and desire, and I believe McDyess’ veteran presence would blend well.
Travis would be PF2, McDyess PF2a… That would be the best scenario for anyone patitiioning to keep Trout around. Those other options we have been discussing…. David Lee, Paul Millsap, Brandon Bass, Glen Davis, Leon Powe and other young bangers who have been discussed wouldn’t fly with the PF2a formula and the weapon known as Trout would almost need to be moved…. For this reason alone, I have shifted my sights on Antonio McDyess. He’s been there, it would be nice to add some serious playoff experience and he enables us to keep our wicked bench scoring option that would also help keep McDyess fresh for the playoffs and maybe prolong his career a couple extra seasons.
Matchup Nightmares.
by Portland Dynasty on May 10, 2009 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I would say
Unless we get Chris Anderson, ’Dyess is the best choice regardless if we keep Outlaw or not.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions
McDyess' is a good choice
I like the idea of Tim Thomas coming over from the Bulls. I also wonder if we can pull Raja Bell away from the Bobcats for 1 or 2 of our 2nd round picks
Here's a project for you
Good stuff. Here’s a stats project for you. To more directly address your hypothesis:
1. take the best point differentials of the last 20 games of the season and see how well that predicts the number of wins in the following season. I would do this for all teams, but you can do it for a select bunch.
2. compare this prediction to a prediction using the full season of point differentials. This will tell us if the end of season point differentials are a better predictor of future success than full season point differentials. I am quite curious to know the answer to this question.
3. In case including bad teams creates problems in the analysis, select just the teams with the highest point differentials over the last 20 games and see how well they play in the following season. In other words, “zoom in” on the top part of the analysis.
4. You might then dig around and see which teams fell off their end of season surge and which kept it going.
by PoliSam on May 10, 2009 8:02 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Good work begets more work
I had a more anecdotal question in mind: How did last year’s Hornets fair in the point differential stat over the course of the year? My worry is we might turn out to be too much like them — caught everyone by surprise and then fell back to earth. We have an amazing team but a lot of our optimism is based on potential and I’ve noticed there are some other pretty good teams around the league.
gotta get past the Cavs to win a championship
And the Cavs are pretty invincible for the next few years. I can see the Cavs winning at least three in a row, starting this year. LeBron stays in Cleveland and wins multiple rings. That is how it seems to be shaking out.
If you think education is expensive, try ignorance.
Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked.
LeBron standing in our way multiple times is a likely possibility. Now go out and find some stats to prove it :)
The only one I can come up with right now is this one: Players with more than 2000 points, 500 rebounds and 500 assists in a season, sorted by age, and by number.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=qWN7e
LeBron only has one real competitor, the under-appreciated Oscar Robertson, who did it 6 times. But LeBron did it twice when younger, and is already at 4 (and once barely missed with 470 assists while fulfilling the other two criteria). Robertson only has one championship, but that has more to do with his teams than with him. He was a multiple All-Star and First-Team selection. Bird did it three times. MJ two times. John Havlicek two times. And Billy Cunningham and Richie Guerrin each one time.
If you loosen the criteria a bit, more seasons come on and a few other players enter the list including Wilt and Drexler, but it’s still small:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=bpzuQ
LeBron is the most complete player in the league right now. And his team (or the Knicks, if he choses to go there) have the ability to surround him with one other star player in 2010.
"Officiating has to be a science, not an art" - Rick Carlisle
the Blazers make a great team at the wrong time
just like the Jordan era. Where we couldnt get past the bulls, Its going to be Blazers and Lebron for next 5 years, with Lebron with 5 rings, and Blazers zero. Kobe will retire, and Roy will be a laker. Blazers luck!
WHAT!?!?!?!
Kosta0027, did i read that right? you said Roy will be a L*ker? you understand thats blasphemy right? The day Roy suits up for the l*kers is the day i turn the NBA off forever. Dirty rotten spitting and cussing and stomping around…..Roy with the L*kers…….i just puked a little. I get your point though just please never again used the wrds “roy will be a laker” in the same sentence again, please
by blazerbeliever97504 on May 10, 2009 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions
UNREC
"There goes Brandon Roy... the best there ever was in this game"
by two buck chuck on May 10, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
unrec
-1,000,000
"There goes Brandon Roy... the best there ever was in this game"
by two buck chuck on May 10, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Yea, so?
Tom Brady grew up a 49er fan.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
jordan didn't grow up a bulls fan
magic wasn’t a laker fan growing up, K*be didnt wasn’t a l*ker fan either
bayless leaves over my dead body
by thomasikehara on May 12, 2009 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
bottom line people
if k.pricthard gets roy some real ballers to seriously ball with,then he’ll have a legit chance.if he keeps these same vilnilla wafers on the team,then same ole same ole.this time lose to a team like the jazz in rd.1 next year.
The only Wafer we had
signed with Houston last year!
The outcome is in Oden's large hands.
If he stays healthy enough this next season for some badly needed development, we could be a force in next years playoff’s. In that scenario, I like our chances to win all the marbles (I feel all warm inside when I think about how much better Batum and LA will be next year …. Roy doesn’t need to get better).
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
Small Forward
How much can Webster force Batum to step up his offensive game?
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Awesome research.
"CRUSH YOUR ENEMIES, SEE THEM DRIVEN BEFORE YOU, AND HEAR THE LAMENTATION OF THEIR WOMEN." CONAN
by SELFDESTRUCTABLE on May 10, 2009 9:48 AM PDT reply actions
2 deep
stop wishing upon a star dude.roy needs a real supporting cast who he’ll feel confident he can trust.that means not games 1-82,that means games between 83-100.and so far roy is not impressed with what he has around him.the sooner he get some real ballers the sooner he gets his ring.and tell your boy oden to get in a damn gym than in a classroom will you.
Yeah, LeBron wasn't impressed either...
but look at what kind of a roster Cleveland has been able to build over the past 4 seasons. A few good moves every year and BOOM, these guys ARE championship material now… and LeBron has also stepped his game up year after year.
I don’t care if people want to compare this young Blazers franchise to the Cavs, or to how the Spurs built their quasi-dynasty… but neither of those groups were built over night and their success corresponded with their stars continually taking THOSE steps in their game year after year. I know fatty thinks this team is garbage, but it all adds up over a few seasons: Starting after the Roy+Aldridge draft there are a few key moves made each year and by 2011 the Blazers will be more than enough to challenge and win against any LeBron led teams. Timing in those moves is super-key, especially in this economic era. Luck is also involved (see Lakers Gasol move), but there is always a sick deal to be had.
Now I am not saying that Portland will not be able to truly challenge for a title next season, I do, but with only 1 series of playoff experience for our core pieces, next season would be almost a miracle.
by Portland Dynasty on May 10, 2009 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions
You're on the mark Fatty.
Oden needs to put in some hard work and finally get in shape. He hasn’t been in shape since before we drafted him, amazingly not even for his pre-draft workouts. It was a huge red flag I thought which was ignored.
I’m hoping some professional pride will kick in after his lack of stamina was so often glaring this season and that he uses the off season to work his butt off to finally get in shape (and I don’t just mean lifting weights which he became enthralled with). Come on Greg you need to realize that for the first time in your life, you’ve got to work to be a good basketball player. Now go out and do it.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
If you take your title…“Roy Wants NBA Championship Next Year…Will He Get It.”
and switch “Will” with “He” you’ll have it correct.
I'm the only thing I'm afraid of.
"..He He Get It"???
"I don’t have the first clue who he is talking about, because all I worry about is Jerome." – Jerome James, on comments by coach Nate McMillan about Seattle SuperSonics players being selfish.
switch as in trade places :-)
I'm the only thing I'm afraid of.
by prezofdeath on May 10, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
The Blazers can begin their championship window with a few shrewd moves this offseason
However, getting past the Lakers the next 3 years, and the Cavs the next 10 years, is going to be extremely difficult. I don’t know if Portland will ever be able to get by LeBron. We shall see. Like I say though, Portland can become legitimate(albeit somewhat fringe) title contenders as soon as next year with just one or two smart moves.
Lets get Batum on some steroids
and see if he can put on 60 lbs this off season, then he might be able to hold LBJ to 25 a game
by Peteyhasnohead on May 10, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
it depends on Webster's/Batum's development on defense
and the development of the Blazers’ team defense.
If the SF group can at least slow King James down, we have a chance.
Best of Senator Clay Davis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI4-QyAzY64&feature=related
exactly...
Martell Webster + Nic Batum are gonna need to be fierce, fast and strong… and consistent in trying to slow down LeBron. There is no stopping a player like him. But can you stick with him, make him work hard, press him to use less efficient parts of his game and frustrate him a little.
This question can not be answered or realistically speculated on until we know how much Martell Webster is gonna return… and how much improvement Batum brings after his impressive rookie campaign.
by Portland Dynasty on May 10, 2009 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Webster
I think best case, is a Joe Johnson-type player.
Batum… His ceiling might be higher, because of his commitment on defense.
If we combine those two & push each other… Could make a strong combination in the future.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Martell Webster is not now nor ever will be near the level of Joe Johnson.
In fact, here’s some of my recent comments regarding Webster’s negative traits.
“My own fear with Martell Webster is his lack of handles, passing ability, and lateral quickness defensively. At Webster’s potential peak, he compares kind of favorably to a prime Michael Finely. Yet, whether or not Webster can ever reach that point in his career is up for debate, which makes me wary of him.
Webster’s percentages from the field have been somewhat weak for a spot-up shooter, too, while his rookie campaign a few years ago doesn’t fare all too well nowadays compared to Nicolas Batum this season.
Lastly, I’m a bit concerned with Webster being out all this season with an injury. That can’t be a good thing."
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/4/30/861162/answers-to-some-questions#15098735
Besides, when Webster entered the NBA, his best-case scenario then was premier spot-up shooters like Glen Rice rather than a complete backcourt player such as Johnson.
Yeah, you've got it.
Sadly, though, Martell Webster is way closer to Lamond Murray than either Glen Rice or Dale Ellis from purely a production standpoint. At best, Michael Finley and Dennis Scott are currently the most realistic best-case scenarios for Webster.
Conley
Is at least a Mo Williams type for us, with the potential to be much more.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions
I completely agree JKSnake
We need to make more smart moves this offseason to be able to compete with the likes of the Cavaliers.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions
the right additions by KP this offseason should put us into position
to be an elite team and a contender next year
Best of Senator Clay Davis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI4-QyAzY64&feature=related
We had the second best record in the West
How is that not elite already?
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
We had a win% of .659 this year.
Roy said he wants it next year.
If you look at the win% of the title winners in the last 15 years higher up in the comment section, the range is from .695 to .878 with a point diff range from 6.8 to 12.2
We had a Point diff of 5.3 with most of the year below 5 almost scrapping 3 at one point.
Bottom line, in both categories we are under the range of the last 15 years of title winners.
This should probably go in the post for more clarification.
GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The rancor reflected in that remark I won't dignify with comment. But I'll address your general attitude of hopeless negativism." – Everett "O Brother, where art Thou?"
Elite = Best team in either conference
Or else we risk starting use to the word elite far too liberally. Hell, Cavaliers are the only real elite team this year.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd say Elite team = Top 3 in either conference or Top 5 in total NBA Power Rankings...
It is not just the one team considered “top” of each conference, but it is reasonable to say, in a competitive league, that each conference should have 2 to 3 legitimate contenders…. So once Portland is a top 3 in the West, we are legit… so not too far off.
by Portland Dynasty on May 10, 2009 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions
You are using the elite term too liberally for my tastes. Especially describing entire teams.
It takes a lot to reach that description in my mind. Like the 90’s Bulls, 2000’s Spurs & Lakers, 80’s Celtics etc
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I think you use it too conservatively
Elite doesn’t connotate those teams for me, “Dynasty” or “Once in a lifetime” or “All-Century” or…well, their specific names. Everyone knows what the 90’s bulls were, you don’t need a label for them.
I feel Portland Dynasty’s definition is better. An elite team is one that other teams fear to go again, one who consistently gets picked up on national TV, who stays on peoples lips the entire year, and whom people talk about the strategies needed to beat them instead of the strategies they need to take out the other team. Not some of the best teams of all time, but rather the most dominatory teams in the season.
"We Believe" - Rudy Fernandez
by TheGreatMon on May 10, 2009 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions
except
the blazers spent a lot of time in the top 5 power rankings this year, and certainly dont deserve the term elite.
- Sam
Elite is like....a class above the rest.
To me, that’s anyone who you expect to be really really good on a consistent basis. We’re becoming elite right now. The Spurs are leaving elite-ville. The Lakers are there now.
I'm the only thing I'm afraid of.
That is my thinking
Elite teams are like the 90’s Bulls, 2000’s Spurs & Lakers, 80’s Celtics etc. I would not say the Lakers are even there yet.
I would say, this current team has their bags packed & Paul Allen just needs to buy the plane ticket :)
\/
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 10, 2009 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions
who needs a plane ticket
when you have Blazer 1?
;0)
I'm the only thing I'm afraid of.
by prezofdeath on May 10, 2009 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
^,^
Rec
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 11, 2009 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions
And got dominated by a lower seed in the first round...playoffs > regular season
You can have your second best record, I WTB titles
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on May 11, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Oden is the fulcrum
The Blazers need slight to moderate improvement is several areas: PG play, legitimate scoring threats at all five positions, better at controlling tempo etc.
But competing for a Championship rests, above all else, on the team’s ability to raise its defense to an elite level (top 5 in the NBA). You can’t always count on your shots falling. Team defense is what keeps a team in a game when they are a little bit off. Defense is what helps you hold on to home court advantage, and what helps you steal an occasional play-off game on the road.
Nothing is more important to the Blazers reaching that elite level than the play of Oden. He is already a monster on the boards. He has to learn to be a presence in the lane without being in constant foul trouble. For every shot he blocks he can alter another 3. Oden becoming Oden will make everything else easier.
I expect him to average 14 pts. and 11 bds. next season on about 30 min/game. Do the rest of you think that is reasonable?
by upper left corner on May 10, 2009 10:50 PM PDT reply actions
if he can stay out of foul trouble
and learns how to play a little in the post, he’ll be a 14-10 guy, at least.
Oden is the future. Without him, there is no hope.
draft dejuan blair
by Cablinasian on May 10, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions
And stay healthy
Another big ‘if’
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on May 11, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
This season
Greg avg 14.8ppg, 11.6rpg, and 1.9blks based on per 36 min numbers. So I don’t think your expectation is too far off, he needs to control his body better, and committ less fouls, both things will come with time, practice, conditioning, and physical and mental strength of his knee. I expect to see a much more fluid and bouncy Greg Oden next year that avg in the low double double’s for points and rebounds.
First he needs to shed some weight
He needs to lose at least 15 pounds – that’ll help with the fluid & bouncy aspects.
by DonkeyShins on May 11, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
if webster and batum
is seriously your hope in becoming a serious title contender then you people might as well start buying the msl tickets now.webster is so overrated by you people it’s sad.webster either hits the rim on his jumperor clank off the rim.how many good games have webster played in less than 10 in 3 years of service.like isaid no excuses a year from now,when this team has plenty of capspace.we’ll see how many major f.agents they can land.
?
This team will have no cap space next year, not sure what you mean there fatty.
But I agree with you on Martell, I think he should be included in a trade if it makes sense, he is better than Outlaw in my view, but he is still not a quality starting 3. Batum has upside, and an upgrade at the starting 3 would be great, but i don’t think it is needed as much as at the point. If this team seriously wants to contend next year, then yes they need some help at the 3, maybe a T. Prince really is available, that would be amazing.
problem is
marty has practically no trade value seeing as how he was hurt all year and other teams dont know if he is healthy…..WE dont know if he is healthy
bayless leaves over my dead body
by thomasikehara on May 11, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Fatty
I’ll have to respectfully disagree here – Batum is the real deal. I can see him being at least equal to Tayshaun Prince if not (if we’re lucky) Scotty Pippen when he hits his prime – he’s got that much raw talent and brains.
Martell, on the other hand, the jury is still out – I think if he hadn’t broken his foot, it could have been a really good year for him, but then we wouldn’t have seen as much of Batum.
Small Forward Ceilings:
Batum: Pippen
Webster: Joe Johnson
Lets just hope our coaching staff & the players can make the most of their opportunities, and be the best they can be.
Offseason:
Trade For Mike Conley Jr
Sign Antonio McDyess & Othello Hunter
Draft Kevin Seraphin/Edwin Jackson(Eurostash)
by TheGreatDane17 on May 11, 2009 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions
i see marty more of a michael finley ceiling
bayless leaves over my dead body
by thomasikehara on May 12, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
I think you're totally off-base on both.
I’m not going to go over why on Batum because others have. However, Martell is one of the guys on the team with a very bright future. Before his injury I was expecting a very good break-out year from him and here’s why:
McMillan has stated that he’s expecting Martell to be a lock-down wing defender, and Martell has accepted the challenge. Not only has he accepted the challenge but he has performed well when given the assignment on the opposing team’s best scorers, which will give us a very good defender on both units no matter which of the two wins the starting position.
Martell’s offensive game was really starting to expand at the end of the 07/08 season. He was cutting to the basket, getting assists, making baseline drives, kick outs, etc. By the end of the season Martell wasn’t a peremeter specialist anymore.
During the summer, training camp and pre-season Martell was working on expanding his offensive game even more and according to those who were watching the early practices, Martell’s growth was one of the most exciting and anticipated developments for the team.
If people are relying on only the development of Webster and Batum then yeah I don’t think those are the only ingredients necessary to get to the next level. But discounting these two players doesn’t make sense either.
"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."
I don't think next year....
Depends on if the Cavs are all still together. They could probably battle with Denver for Western Conference next year. Maybe 2 to 3 years they could be Champs. I would be shocked if he didn’t win MVP in the next few years, though…..
k I seen a bunch of graphs.....
do they say that we’ll win the championship next season? GOOD!!!! :) KK thanks for clearing that up ;)
giggle
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Holding a point diff of 9.8 for 21 games is astounding.
I’m fairly certain rank of point diff and win% is close to a one to one correlation.
If the Blazers perform next year similar to the last 21 games of this year the will likely be one of the top 3 teams in the league. Does that mean they’ll win a title, of course not, but it ups their chances tremendously.
I didn’t post the point diff of all teams for this year, but there was a distinct separation from the top of the pack (Clev, Bos, LA, Orl) and the other teams. Portland should join that pack next year. I believe the title winner will come from that pack.
GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The rancor reflected in that remark I won't dignify with comment. But I'll address your general attitude of hopeless negativism." – Everett "O Brother, where art Thou?"
I'd be surprised if anyone outside of Lakers, Blazers, Cavs, or Magic won any of the next 4 titles.
Magic only stay in that picture if Jameer can stay healthy.
this website rocks
no other sports site features genius’s like you sir.
well done and rec
sophia
Though patience be a tired mare, yet she will plod. - William Shakespeare
Roses are red
violets in bloom
Sophia’s in love
with Nicholas Batum
-Bow4Meow
Unfortunately I had to post and run,
But certainly must find the time to say thanks for a rec like that!
And to all the other rec’ers….Thanks!
GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The rancor reflected in that remark I won't dignify with comment. But I'll address your general attitude of hopeless negativism." – Everett "O Brother, where art Thou?"
BOR-ING
I appreciate the effort and enthusiasm, but jeez. All the charts and graphs in the world aren’t going to bring a trophy to Portland next year. Basketball doesn’t work like a math problem, there are injuries, trades, etc. that can happen at any time.
The only thing we can really be sure of is irritating taco bell commercials played over and over during every game.
What’s up Portland fans? We’re going to start getting swirlies left and right if this is how we represent.
Life is hilarious.
Hmmmm………..
I had an intuitive feeling that a point diff (PD) of Zero was a .500 team (41 & 41) and the math not surprisingly bore that out.
The math also proved a team who is 1st in the league re PD wins the title 50% of the time, and also proves the team with a higher PD in the big dance wins the title 75% of the time.
So if you’re into laying some big money down give me a call, otherwise if you’re just trolling, turn on a Taco Bell commercial and chug down another beer.
GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The rancor reflected in that remark I won't dignify with comment. But I'll address your general attitude of hopeless negativism." – Everett "O Brother, where art Thou?"
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