NBA History Made Yesterday by Blazers
by lee3022 on Apr 9, 2009 4:20 PM PDT
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PrintIt is not often that we have gone through the doorway of NBA History so I wanted to mark this moment for all of us. Only an numbers guy would ever take the time to do so but you will find this interesting.
The Trail Blazers under Coach Nate McMillan have improved at least 9 games each season for the past four years. How often has that ever occured? I wanted to find out.
So I searched my favorite site for data: Basketball-reference.com to look at the records of each NBA franchise from the inception of the league (1949). I was surprised to discover the following:
The Trail Blazers improved from 21 wins in 2005-2006 season to 32 wins in 2006-2007. This has been done by nearly every franchise.
The following year, 2006-2007 they improved to 41 wins. This consecutive year improvement by at least 9 wins has been done in consecutive years by only 19 franchises and a total of only 30 times (Portland owning 3 of them).
This year last night's win brought the Trail Blazers to 50 wins assuring them of another consecutive improvement by at least 9 wins. This four consecutive season improvement by 9 wins has been done by only one other franchise - the Philadelphia 76ers (1972-1976).
No franchise has ever improved for a 5th consecutive season, so the record of 4 consecutive seasons was tied last night by the Portland Trail Blazers. That is history. With over 100,000 games played in NBA (ABA and BAA included) by current franchises this is a rare moment. Another marker to appreciate that we are living an unusual opportunity to watch a team develop.
Portland would need to improve an additional 9 games to reset the record to 5 consecutive seasons (somewhere between 59 wins and 62 wins) next year. Here is the question to debate: Can Portland make another 9-game improvement next year? And if so, what are your assumptions that allow that to happen?
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I'm constantly amazed by the job KP did over the past three years
What a talented GM.
I doubt we’ll improve by 9 games again. Not because we can’t; but because it gets increasingly harder as we win more games each season. Going from 21 to 32 wins is one thing; going from 50+ to 60+ is another.
Also, the season isn’t over yet… we may still have 2-4 more wins to add to this total. It reduces the chances further.
That being said, if any team could do it, it’s this one. If Oden improves next year, along with LMA and Brandon’s maturity… watch out.
Agree--it's quite an achievement to hit 60 wins...not sure if we'll get there next year
It's spelled "PRZYBILLA."
vanillathrillagorillaprzybilla
by RenoBlazerFan on Apr 9, 2009 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't hate polls, just ones that leave some people with no option that fits their opinion
I say the chance is somewhere more than 0% (there is always SOME chance), and considerably less than 50% (we are going to win at Least 52 this year, meaning we would need 61 next year.).
Alas, nothing approaching that in the poll.
Great research and nice post however. Good job
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Apr 9, 2009 4:31 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
not me
but only cause I only have one thumb
Support those in crisis in Portland www.give10tell10.org
I can't imagine a happy accident involving the loss of a thumb.
Of all the things that can be expressed in the printed word – love, hate, fear, joy – true humor is the one that is the most difficult of all. Sarcasm, for example, is an art of delicate subtlety. Yet too many people wield it as a bulldozer – loud, smelly, ugly, and destructive – and think they are being funny.
if portland finished with 54 wins
Like I believe they will, 9 more wins would be 63 wins next year….that would be amazing, and only doable if the Greg we saw this year was 50% Greg. Meaning the Greg we see next year will be 100% Greg. I would say the chances are not very good to get to 60+ wins next year, sure anything is possible, but I don’t think so. I would be very impressed if the Blazers pulled off a Spurs-like 50+ wins in 9 straight seasons, and I think that is much more likely than jumping to 60+ next year.
You nailed probably the salient issue
In thinking about micro-fracture surgery for young big men in the NBA the only comparable is Amar’e Stoudemire. His return the following year was slow and difficult but in the 2nd year he seemed to have regained all his explosion. So Greg may be at 50% and we might yet see the complete recovery.
whoo, Katy bar the door! - Maurice Lucas anticipating Greg Oden's development
I think this does illustrate our improvement...
..but it joins the growing trends of retroactive stats, i.e. “Brandon Roy is the first player with 50 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 0 turnovers, 100 dB of crowd cheers, and 22 pairs of pooped pants in the arena.”
Some stats sound impressive, but only when you’re tailoring your query to the exact conditions they fulfill. It’s not like the four straight years of +9 wins is some Holy Grail of coaching that has been previously identified and discussed.
It’s a little like if I flip a coin 20 times and at some point getting 7 heads in a row, then say “Oh my God, there’s only a 1/128 chance of that happening!” Yes, there is only a 1/128 chance of that happening, but there is also a 1/10 chance of SOMETHING happening that makes you say “Oh my God,” it just happened to be this one.
Now that my poo-poo parade is over, that certainly is impressive coaching, but calling it NBA History is a wee bit over the top.
Lol - I would agree although if you changed it to 8 wins or 10 wins it would have been the same except none with 4 years consecutive.
The point is sustaining improvement and that is rare.
whoo, Katy bar the door! - Maurice Lucas anticipating Greg Oden's development
Oh come on...
It IS rather impressive to see a team that was waaaaay down show remarkable, CONTINUED improvement. And that seems to be the point of this post. That only one other team in league history has had this amount of sustained improvement should be another point of pride for the Blazers.
And I do have to say…..another improvement by 9 wins is not out of the question.
good poop
but i do think this is pretty impressive and would be historic if they did it next season too…
Support those in crisis in Portland www.give10tell10.org
It is a remarkable achievement
History is a string of remarkable achievements.. – - the sheer number of years/games played makes this stat an anomaly for sure – - but then you have to realze this was not a random event – it was a purposeful one.
SO – - outstanding achievement never before accomplished multiplied by youth, multplied again by integrity ==> something of note has occured
NBA history in the making!
Way to go Portland
""Look. I can touch the rim on my tippy toes.. " – Greg Oden
"As for the depressed faces, the only faces I've seen at the Rose Garden that match that description are usually wearing Laker shirts, and they usually end up leaving early, after the Blazers have the game well in hand. At least that's the way it's been in the recent past. Then, like clockwork, they write comments to this blog, telling me I suck." -- Mike Barrett 4-9-09
Can I get a 20% chance?
It would be one thing if we lost out this year and only had to get to 59 wins, but realistically, we’re probably going to have to win something like 62 or 63 wins next year, which in most years would mean we’d have to be the best or second best regular season team in the league next year.
Possible, but hardly something I’d put money on.
63 is the actual Trail Blazer franchise record for wins
when was this, you ask? Well, 92wastheyear
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Apr 9, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
How is this for self promotion?
I am proud of that little bon mot
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
I'm just setting them up
nice job knocking them down. Deserves a rec in my book.
It was actually 1991
I watched that great documentary on csn last night. “mania”, and learned a lot about the franchise.
actually, it was 1990-91
That entire season is stamped in my memory more than any other. I was 17 and a Junior in high school.
We started the year 11-0 and ran it to 19-1, this stretch included the infamous perfect quarter in which we shot 22 of 25 from the field on our way to a 49-17 lead after one over the Robinson-led Spurs in the first meeting since our epic 7 game series with them the year prior. (they actually came all the way back to take the lead later in the game before we prevailed). We endured a 3-8 stretch in midseason when Kersey was out injured and Clyde was playing with a bum elbow. Flip that around and we’re talking about a team that would have won close to 70 games that year. We were that dominant. One game in that stretch was an epic overtime thriller in Boston in which Bird scored like 45 points including the tying double clutch 3 pointer in which he was actually like 6 inches over the line. We swept the Bulls in the regulary season, winning both games by about 10 points. We ended the year winning 16 games in a row before dropping the last game of the season. Many would later say we peaked too early, as we struggled to knock off the 8-seed sonics in round one, having to go the full 5 games. Round two is less memorable to me (Jazz in 6 maybe?), but the WCF are not. Game one we choke away a 10+ point lead (something that era team did far too often for a team of it’s caliber), and we spend the next 5 games trading homecourt victories, including the game 6 clincher in LA in which there are 2 very vivid images: Uncle Cliffy fumbling a 4 on 1 fastbreak pass out of bound with about a minute to go in the game (it would have given us the lead), and TP’s long jumper at the end coming up just short as Magic throws the rebound high into the air and down the court.
More than 1990, more than 1992, this was the season of disappointment, the season of opportunity lost. If firmly believe to this day, had we got past that WCF, we win the Finals against the Bulls that year. We had the experience of the previous season, we would have had homecourt, and we had beaten them twice already, pretty handily.
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
With the lessons learned this season
like the recent 76ers game, this team has a shot at making an huge run next season, now that they have cleared away the roadblock against top conference opponents.
I can see them improving their home record by 3 and their road record by 6 no problem next season…
That is probably how many games they lost due to their relative inexperience…
It all hinges on injuries, there will be some, it is a matter of who, how long and how serious…
that is what makes this team so exciting…great kids astounding potential being realized before our eyes…
Support those in crisis in Portland www.give10tell10.org
Also ...this is interesting
The average increase of wins that a #1 pick generates during his rookie year is 11 (since the lottery was instituted) …..we are almost there with Greg (if we get to 52 that is)
Rose will probably get there too with Chicago
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Apr 9, 2009 4:54 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Nice post...
I hope we can do it! Certainly will be difficult..but obtainable..especially if we get more confident and our expectations change.
And the Blazers are among the youngest teams (age, experience) to ever win so much, as per PoliSam's excellent posts
http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/12/12/690628/ages-experience-and-win-in
So while adding another 9 wins would be a very tall order, we are still far ahead of the curve.
WE NEED TO THROW OUR NEXT 4 GAMES
MAKE HISTORY EASIER TO ACHIEVE NEXT YEAR!
by Zaig on Apr 9, 2009 5:51 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
One thing helping the Blazer win over 60 games next year
is that several playoff teams will be declining with age (Celtics, Suns, Spurs) or injury (Rockets, Suns, Spurs) or rebuilding (Suns, Pistons) or losing a major piece due to salary restrictions (Jazz).
goes both ways
Hard to imagine the Thunder, Kings, and Grizz being such easy outs next year if they’re healthy given that all their youngsters will have improved. Although I’m not sure how the rockets will be declining with injury given that they’ve shown that they’re better sans T-Mac.
Still, I think the league should look significantly different this time next year. There will still be the elite teams (LA, Cleveland, hopefully us), but I think there’s not going to be nearly as huge a gap between the second tier and the third and fourth tiers of teams. Depending on how the FA class shakes out, we’re probably looking at lots more parity in the west.
there's a gigantic gray area
between having 8 50 win teams and 6 sub 30-win teams, and having 15 41-41 teams.
Phily Basketabll history lesson
This four consecutive season improvement by 9 wins has been done by only one other franchise – the Philadelphia 76ers (1972-1976).
The main reason for this occurrence was it happened during the time of the ABA defections and dispersal draft. That shades the their record since there isn’t similar event going on….well maybe KP qualifies :-D
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot." - Bill Russell
Might also helped that they started with a 9 win season
They drafted Doug Collins #1 pick the year before Portland got Bill Walton.
whoo, Katy bar the door! - Maurice Lucas anticipating Greg Oden's development
Darrel Dawkins should punch Collins in the face
oh wait…..he did !
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
I find it interesting that nobody is mentioning the addition of Martell Webster next year
I still believe this guy is deadly and will surprise a lot of people with his rebounding and defense. That may account for additional wins as well.
whoo, Katy bar the door! - Maurice Lucas anticipating Greg Oden's development
GREAT RECORD
But can we please call it improving THREE consecutive seasons (we have improved three times)…NEXT YEAR would be improving FOUR times
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
Yes - it was originally written as over a 4 season span which is correct and required 3 improvements
whoo, Katy bar the door! - Maurice Lucas anticipating Greg Oden's development
To do the 9+ wins thing 4x means you got to start around 20.
I guess Portland was able lose it and successfully rebuild quickly several times. Hard for teams that don’t fall that far.
Another thing to point out is that the Blazers are now at +4 for the Brandon Roy era
32-50 in 2006-2007
41-41 in 2007-2008
+ 50-28 this season
————
123-119
the BRoy/LMA era you mean
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
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