April 9th Playoff Seeding Update
by Dave on Apr 9, 2009 12:47 AM PDT
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PrintOK, the last time I saw a seeding situation this messy it involved a farmboy, a case of Coors, and a 24-row header attached to a John Deere.
Here are the current standings 2-8 in the West
- 2. Denver 53-26
- 3. San Antonio 50-28
- 4. Houston 50-28
- 5. Portland 50-28
- 6. New Orleans 48-30
- 7. Utah 47-31
- 8. Dallas 47-31
You can click here to see the games remaining for each team.
Here are the key factors that have updated tonight:
--Denver won tonight. Since they own the tiebreaker with the Blazers their magic number to take the division is now one game. One Denver win or one Portland loss seals the deal. The Nuggets must lose all three remaining games (@L*kers, Sacramento, @Portland) and the Blazers must win out in order for Portland to take the division.
--The Blazers now own the head-to-head tiebreaker with San Antonio PROVIDING the Spurs do not win their division. If the Spurs win their division and the Blazers do not win theirs then head-to-head record does not come into play.
--The Blazers don't own tiebreakers with New Orleans or Dallas. There's no scenario remaining in which Portland could end up tied with Utah and own the tiebreaker either. Therefore Portland still needs a couple more wins to guarantee a finish above the teams currently behind them.
--The three-way tie at 3-4-5 brings up the specter of the three-way tiebreaking rules. The rules themselves are simple but the permutations are ugly, so hold on.
First Tiebreaker: Division Winner
Either Houston or San Antonio will win their division so one team will finish ahead of Portland in any three-way tie. Unless the Blazers manage to beat out Denver for the division they can finish no better than second.
The division-winner tiebreaking process supersedes the three-way tie process. In other words, a division winner is determined first between Houston and San Antonio and THEN the three-way tie between them and Portland is resolved.
Houston and San Antonio are tied for head-to-head record, 2-2.
The next tie breaker between them would be division wins. Houston stands at 8-6 against the division, San Antonio at 9-6. Houston's final two games of the year are division games (New Orleans, @Dallas). San Antonio has one division game remaining (New Orleans).
If the two teams remained tied after division wins are factored in then conference wins come into play. Both are 31-16 against the Western Conference with four games remaining.
If the teams still remained tied after conference wins the next tiebreaker is record against conference playoff teams. Houston is currently 13-12 with 2 games remaining against playoff teams (New Orleans, @Dallas). San Antonio is 10-13, also with 2 games remaining (Utah, New Orleans). The worst record Houston could finish with is 13-14, a 48.15% winning percentage. The best record San Antonio could finish with is 12-13, a 48% winning percentage on the nose. If the tiebreaker got this far, Houston would beat out San Antonio by .15% and take the division.
Second Tiebreaker: Best Head-to-Head Percentage Amongst the Three Teams
Portland's Record vs. HOU+SA = 4-3
Houston's Record vs. POR+SA = 4-3
San Antonio's Record vs. POR+HOU = 3-5
If Houston won the division Portland would beat out San Antonio for the second spot in the three-way tie.
If San Antonio won the division Portland and Houston would go to the next tiebreaker.
Third Tiebreaker: Conference Record
Division record is technically the third tiebreaker but it only applies when the teams in question are in the same division, which Houston and Portland are not.
Houston has a 32-16 conference record. Portland's is 28-20. Portland cannot catch up to Houston and still be tied in overall record. Therefore Houston would win this tiebreaker.
Therefore the results of a three-way tie between Houston, San Antonio, and Portland would be:
San Antonio first, Houston second, Portland third if San Antonio wins their division.
Houston first, Portland second, San Antonio third if Houston wins their division.
-----------------------------------------------------
If you're wondering how this would shake out in the unlikely event that Portland overtook Denver for the division crown and remained tied with Houston, San Antonio, or both, here's what it looks like:
vs. Houston: Blazers lose if Houston wins their division, wins if they don't.
vs. San Antonio: Blazers win whether or not San Antonio wins their division
Three-Way Tie: Houston first, Portland second, San Antonio third if Houston wins their division. Portland first, San Antonio second, Houston third if San Antonio wins their division.
-------------------------------------
As you can see, rooting for people besides the Blazers is complicated. Obviously you want to root for the Blazers to beat everyone they can. Rooting against the teams behind Portland in every game except the ones they have with teams ahead of Portland is easy. In the event of a two-team tie you want the Blazers to tie with San Antonio and not with Houston. In the event of a three-way HOU-SA-POR tie you want Houston to win the Southwest division unless Portland also manages to beat out Denver, in which case you want San Antonio to win the division.
Call me when your head stops spinning.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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The key in my opinion
is this upcoming game against the Fkers. They will be out for our blood this time especially with homecourt through the NBA finals on the line, and they will have a potential backbreaker in Andrew Bynum back. Generally the thought that the Fkers will be playing the second of a back to back would make me happy, but I think it could actually help Bynum more than hinder since he’s well rested and would benefit from the “warmup” that the home game against Denver ought to be. Oden must come through for us to win that game.
to me, it's pretty simple at this point:
-Denver is gone, as is the 2 seed. give it up
-The 3 seed will almost assuredly require winning out (and also require a loss each for SA and Hou). Not likely
-Finish ahead of either SA or Houston. We do that, we have homecourt in round 1. SA is more likely to fall behind us, and perhaps more desirable.
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
oh, and the last point
avoid falling to 6 or worse by ending up no worse than 3-1 in our remaining games
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
Unless
the quite unlikely even occurs that Denver loses at home to Sacramento. If that happens all bets are off.
I believe Denver will lose to the L*kers in L.A. for Bynum’s comeback game.
I believe Portland has a chance to win out. The key would be the L.A. game. The second key would be the Denver game meaning something and us having our own destiny in our hands at home. THAT would be one hell of a game. What a way to close the regular season!
Providing the Nuggets lose to L.A. while Portland beats L.A., EVERYBODY is going to become a Kings fan next Monday night. We’ll make sure to head over to Sactown Royalty and support their game thread in that case.
—Dave
good point
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
if that ends up being the case
it’s going to be one heck of a gameday thread that night!
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
On the other hand, would that have more than symbolic meaning (winning a division title)?
I want home court since that should greatly increase our chances to reach the second round. But I wouldn’t want to face Dallas or Utah. #4 sounds good to me
Yeah, best case scenario
is Blazers at 4 and San Antone at 5.
by howlingfantods on Apr 9, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions
"As you can see, rooting for people besides the Blazers is complicated."
No kidding! I’ve experienced the sensation of rooting for another team the entire game until a friend online points out some detail that makes it better for the Blazers if the other team wins and then my head explodes. I can’t wait until we’re a perennial 1 seed and we can leave this squabbling over playoff positions and home court advantage to the peasants.
PLAYOFFS... sounds good, don't it?
homecourt thoughts
My only hesitation about getting homecourt in round 1 is this: Game 1. how will we react to that first playoff game? I have no concerns about our ability to handles ourselves in games 2 through 7, but I envision a scenario where we come out tight, nervous, too amped up, and get off to a very poor start and lose the game. Wouldn’t you rather have that happen on the road than at home?
Of course I’d rather have a potential game 7 in our building, but you gotta get there first, and dropping game 1 at home puts a TON more pressure on us than dropping a game 1 on the road (just ask the 1990-91 PTB about game 1 of the WCF…)
Just a thought…
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
I wouldn't overthink it
Homecourt is better. Think of it this way: if you lose the first game at home with homecourt you have 3 games left at home and 3 on the road. If you lose the first game on the road without homecourt you have 3 games left on the road and 3 at home. It’s the same either way.
—Dave
Right. The Blazers' game plan
is like Muhammad Ali’s Rope-a-Dope. Lay back, absorb punishment early, wait for the opponent to go up by 20 and get bored and lazy, then start nailing them with left jabs.
Thanks for clarifying the tie-breaker
I saw that it gets really complicated fast in the current standings. It gets easier the more the Blazers win though. let’s hope that both SA and Houston drop more than the blazers here on out.
Mai-tais are tourist drinks
All that sugar will give you a headache.
This signature intentionally left blank.
And type II diabetes
And rotten teeth, and illegitimate children
quid Latine dictum sit, altum viditur
Weird playoff seeding anomaly this year
There are four and only four excellent teams in the league this year; if you want to go far in the playoffs, your seeding assignment, if you choose to accept it, is to avoid as many of them as possible. We all know that in each conference, seeds 1-4-5-8 compete, ultimately for the right to play the winner of the 2-3-6-7 grouping. In the WEST, if you’re one of the seven essentially equal also-ran teams and you want the best possible chance to go far in the playoffs you definitely want to avoid that #1 seed, LA. This means that ideally you want to start out in the 2-3-6-7 group (the higher the better, of course, to secure home court). You won’t face LA until the third round.
Ironically, in the EAST, the situation is precisely the opposite – and consequences of adverse seeding are horrendous. There are three excellent teams there (Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando) and they’ll be seeded 1, 2, and 3 in some order. So if you’re one of those second-tier hopefuls you really want to start out in the 1-4-5-8 grouping. Why? Because if you’re the sixth or seventh seed and in the 2-3-6-7 group, and if everything else goes according to form, you’ll wind up playing the 2 or 3 seed to start, then the other of the 2 or 3 in round two, and then the #1 seed in the Conf. finals, ultimately to meet LA in the championship. How’s that for tough — if all else goes to form, to win it all you’ll need to beat every one of the 4 best teams in the league. So while you’re wondering how the seeding will play out for the Blazers, any pity should be reserved for the 6 and 7 seeds in the East. In contrast, the Blazers will have it Easy.
by blazerwizard on Apr 9, 2009 7:07 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I would pity them except...
Teams barely above .500 are getting the 6-7 spots in the East. They deserve to have to work their way into the finals.
They don't deserve to be there at all.
Only the top four teams in each conference should be in the playoffs, but that’s a different thread.
I respectfully disagree
But yeah, we’ve discussed that in past threads. However, if only 4 teams made it this season… man would the final 4 games be epic.
See? You've just admitted how much more interesting
the regular-season games would be with only eight teams in the playoffs.
Moot anyway, it’ll never happen.
To me, the #3 seed looks ideal
if the Mavericks stay in the 8th or 7th spot. Even if we have home-court advantage, that team has got our number and a load of guys who’ve done this playoff thing many times over. However, looking at the schedule, NO will most likely fall (three roadies against playoff teams, and one home game against Dallas). Utah is most likely to go 2-2 (road game against a Spurs team hungry for vindication and another against the Lakers; two home games against the Warriors and Clips) while Dallas is a wild card—a home and road game against NO, and then home against Minnesota and then Houston.
I think we need to pay careful attention to the two games of Dallas vs. NO this weekend. If we do end up in the 3rd seed, those games could go a long way deciding whether we play the Hornets (who I think we could take) or Dallas (who scares me almost as much as the Lakers at this point, even w/ home court advantage) or Utah (which we can take).
Here's the Timbo Version for people who don't want to think too much...
Blazers need to win out and they’re in the money, because there is no way in hell San Antonio is gonna win out.
Houston wins the Southwest and Blazers take the 4.
QED.
Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...
Worst case scenario: Blazers get stuck playing Dallas. That team is Bad, Bad, Bad, Bad, Bad News...
Fortunately, it’s hard to see how that matchup comes to be, unless SA gets stone cold and somehow it’s a Blazers 4, Dallas 5 situation. I’m going to avert my eyes rather than figure out if that can actually happen. If you don’t look under the bed, the monsters can’t actually get you.
Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...
6-8 still up in the air
NO has a 1 game lead over Utah and Dallas, but their remaining schedule is brutal. NO could fall all the way to 8. We could run into Dallas with the 2 or the 3 seed if we manage to get them. I’d still take either one though. Our bench had arguably it’s worst game of the season last time against Dallas and we still almost won. (0 points for everyone not named Outlaw, Rudy injured.)
I just tried explaining this to a co-worker
Then I come on and see it all written down. Shoulda just sent him here first.
Coolstandings.com
Not sure how well all the tiebreaker scenarios are accounted for in this, but coolstandings.com currently gives Portland the best % chance at the 3 seed of any team. Under the “smart” scenario that looks at scoring margin, etc. to predict game winners.
by Lenny Suckerpunch on Apr 9, 2009 9:11 AM PDT reply actions
> OK, the last time I saw a seeding situation this messy it involved a farmboy, a case of Coors, and a 24-row header attached to a John Deere.
I have no idea what that means and I’m still laughing.
> Call me when your head stops spinning.
wobitawobitawobitawobitawobitawobitawobitawobitawobitawobitawobita
Not yet. – Elgin
Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards
Best scenario would be to have home
court against San Antonio. As Douglast said, we need to win at least 3 more games, Houston needs to win their division, and San Antonio needs to lose 2 games. Root for New Orleans to win out except against Houston. Root for the Jazz to beat the Spurs.
Dunno...
I’d like the 3 seed, don’t care who we play. We should be able to handle Dallas, Utah, NO, despite Dallas having a fluke regular season against us.
In round 2 we could hopefully take Denver, either way a lot easier beating Denver than Lakers.
Meanwhile the Lakers would probably have Rockets. That’d be a tough series and Kobe would not come out unscathed.
This gives us the best shot to win WC. We could then let Lebron have his 1 title before we take the next 12,000. (I could also wave the LBJ NBA finals stat in front of Kobe fans.)
I appreciate your optimism,
but i don’t share it. I think we have a much better chance against the Spurs than any other team. Although the Hornets have been playing poorly, they will feel very confident against us, although I think we have a good chance of winning. The Jazz could be dangerous, but I think we could prevail. I feel less confident against the Mavs, Rockets, and Nuggets. I wouldn’t expect to beat any of them. Unfortunately, I think the L_kers will role over us in 5 or 6 games. Hope I’m wrong.
I'm with you. SA is old and
two of their Big Three are out or injured for the playoffs. Our confidence against them has to be high now, and I’m betting we get home court. The stars are aligning nicely for a first-round Blazer win.
Dave
you should know that Coors is to high priced for Farmboys. Its
Hamms , PBR, Rainner for us. It used to be blitz but what happened to Seattle happened in Portland first.the greedy owner sold out the company was moved and the winning formula was changed. and thing haven’t been the same since.
"I like whatever metric makes a Blazer look better." jonestr
Reporter: Four assists tonight too, Travis. You're starting to shed that idea that you're just a shooter. You're starting to pass the ball more too...
Travis: (Deadpans) Aw, I just got tired..
ruffin from ruffin leaves ruffin
you gotta have somethin…
does Olympia Beer still exist?
Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards
I just had an aneurysm.
I’m going to the hospital now. Thanks Dave.
Man standing on toilet is high on pot.
I think we need to win out....
If we want to stay in the top 4. Unless San Antonio loses 2 of it’s last 4 games, then the Blazers will only need to win 3. I thought in Dec. they would finish with 53 wins. I think I will be right!!!!!!!!!
That's why he makes the big bucks
“OK, the last time I saw a seeding situation this messy it involved a farmboy, a case of Coors, and a 24-row header attached to a John Deere.”
complicated, mildly funny metaphors are what makes this site thrive.
well done.
The Odenphant is true king of the jungle.
Dave I hope you're still checking this because you gotta take one more thing into account
if you’re looking at the unlikely scenario where we SURPASS Denver, you also gotta look at the scenario where ALL FOUR TEAMS TIE.
In that case, Denver>Portland by division winner. Houston/SAS is a tossup as of now..if spurs>houston, its easy—we’re last of the four. If houston>spurs, then we’re left comparing the head to head of a 4 way tie now right? so what is the record between the spurs and denver?
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
can someone write the head to heads of us denver sas and houston?
I know our record vs each, but what are their series at?? There’s all sorts of other 3 way ties to take into account too if things go differently!
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
PS Portland could very well beat LA and Denver and if Denver loses tonight, its likely we'll be tied for this scenario to play out!
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
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