Taking Care of Business (SECOND Post Spurs Win Update) - SERIOUS KNOWLEDGE BOMB ALERT
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 1:25 PM PDT
102 comments
Unless something changes with a division loss by Houston and an out-of division loss by San Antonio, Houston holds the tiebreaker over SA based on respective records vs. Western playoff teams. That means that the win last night, if everything were to end today, pushed Portland from number 5 to number 4. The only way Portland loses out on homecourt, then is: 1) if it falls behind both Houston and San Antonio, 2) if San Antonio wins the division and Portland and Houston end up tied behind SA, or 3) If San Antonio ends up tied for the division with Houston, but Houston loses another division game while San Antonio does not, then San Antonio wins the division via this first division tiebreaker and Houston wins the 4 seed by virtue of its tiebreaker over Portland. THIS JUST IN (SERIOUS KNOWLEDGE BOMB):
RESULTS:
FOR ALL YOU NAYSAYERS OUT THERE, DREAM of 54 (my prediction from midseason) is STILL ALIVE!!!
PORTLAND WINS! PORTLAND WINS!!!
New Orleans got an "unexpected" loss to make up for the "unexpected win" they just got.
|
CURRENT STANDINGS: |
|
| 2. DENVER | 52-26 |
| 3. HOUSTON (TB over SA) | 50-28 |
| 4. PORTLAND | 50-28 |
| 5. SAN ANTONIO | 50-28 |
| 6. NEW ORLEANS | 48-30 |
| 7. DALLAS | 47-31 |
| 8. UTAH | 47-31 |
|
OUT: PHOENIX |
42-35 |
|
* * * PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS: |
|
| 2. DENVER | 54-28 |
| 3. SAN ANTONIO | 54-28 |
| 4. PORTLAND | 54-28 |
| 5. HOUSTON | 53-29 |
| 6. DALLAS | 50-32 |
| 7. NEW ORLEANS | 49-33 |
| 8. UTAH | 48-34 |
|
OUT: PHOENIX |
47-35 |
SO FAR SO GOOD
Just handle your business boys, and the future looks rosy, just need one more loss by either San Antonio or Houston to get homecourt, and losses by both (and Blazers win out) gives the THREE SEED. I said THREE SEED!!!
Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland's dominating (for the last three quarters) win vs. San Antonio:
|
PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if San Antonio drops ONE game somewhere, and all else holds steady: |
|
| 2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR) | 54-28 |
| 3. PORTLAND | 54-28 |
| 4. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) | 53-29 |
| 5. HOUSTON | 53-29 |
| 6. DALLAS | 50-32 |
| 7. NO | 49-33 |
| 8. UTAH | 48-34 |
|
OUT: PHOENIX |
47-35 |
|
PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if all else holds steady: |
|
| 2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA/POR) | 54-28 |
| 3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) | 54-28 |
| 4. PORTLAND | 54-28 |
| 5. HOUSTON | 53-29 |
| 6. DALLAS | 50-32 |
| 7. NO | 49-33 |
| 8. UTAH | 48-34 |
|
OUT: PHOENIX |
47-35 |
|
PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if San Antonio drops ONE game somewhere, and Houston wins its remaining EXPECTED LOSS game (vs. Dallas): |
|
| 2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR) | 54-28 |
| 3. HOUSTON (division winner) | 54-28 |
| 4. PORTLAND | 54-28 |
| 5. SAN ANTONIO | 53-29 |
| 6. DALLAS | 50-32 |
| 7. NO | 49-33 |
| 8. UTAH | 48-34 |
|
OUT: PHOENIX |
47-35 |
|
PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland loses ONE game, all else holds steady: |
|
| 2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA) | 54-28 |
| 3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) | 54-28 |
| 4. HOUSTON (tiebreaker v. POR) | 53-29 |
| 5. PORTLAND | 53-29 |
| 6. DALLAS | 50-32 |
| 7. NO | 49-33 |
| 8. UTAH | 48-34 |
|
OUT: PHOENIX |
47-35 |
|
PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland, Houston and San Antonio all drop a game (with both San Antonio's and Houston's losses being inside their division, or both outside their division, or if Houston's loss is out of division, while San Antonio's is in the division): |
|
| 2. DENVER | 54-28 |
| 3. HOUSTON (TB over SA) | 53-29 |
| 4. PORTLAND | 53-29 |
| 5. SAN ANTONIO | 53-29 |
| 6. DALLAS | 50-32 |
| 7. NO | 49-33 |
| 8. UTAH | 48-34 |
|
OUT: PHOENIX |
47-35 |
|
PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland, Houston and San Antonio all drop a game (with San Antonio's loss being outside its Division, while Houston's loss is in the division): |
|
| 2. DENVER | 54-28 |
| 3. SAN ANTONIO (TB over both) | 53-29 |
| 4. HOUSTON (TB over POR) | 53-29 |
| 5. PORTLAND | 53-29 |
| 6. DALLAS | 50-32 |
| 7. NO | 49-33 |
| 8. UTAH | 48-34 |
|
OUT: PHOENIX |
47-35 |
|
PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland loses ONE game, and San Antonio drops TWO games somewhere (plausible with the emotional blow of MANU out for the season and Duncan hobbled?): |
|
| 2. DENVER | 54-28 |
| 3. HOUSTON (division winner) | 53-29 |
| 4. PORTLAND | 53-29 |
| 5. SAN ANTONIO | 52-30 |
| 6. DALLAS | 50-32 |
| 7. NO | 49-33 |
| 8. UTAH | 48-34 |
|
OUT: PHOENIX |
46-36 |
Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland loss vs. San Antonio:
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA...WHATCHA LOOKING HERE FOR, SUCKAS!!!!
WE ALREADY BEAT SAN ANTONIO...BY DOUBLE DIGITS!!!
GO BLAZERS!!! BEAT LA!!!
KEY REMAINING GAMES WHERE UNEXPECTED RESULTS COULD HELP THE BLAZERS LISTED BELOW
As I was responding to a post below, I realized that bolding key games where we DON'T WANT THE EXPECTED "TAKING CARE OF BUSINESS" TO HAPPEN might give us more games of interest, so I have bolded games for each team in the hunt where rooting for a "non-traditional" outcome should help the Blazers:
DENVER
(current: 53-26) (projected: 54-28)
(2 seed)
- Thu, Apr 9 at LA Lakers L
- Mon, Apr 13 Sacramento W
- Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L
SAN ANTONIO
(current: 50-28) (projected: 54-28)
(3 seed)
- Fri, Apr 10 Utah W
- Sun, Apr 12 at Sacramento W
- Mon, Apr 13 at Golden State W (2d of back to back)
- Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W
PORTLAND
(current: 50-28) (projected: 54-28)
(4 seed)
- Fri, Apr 10 LA Lakers W
- Sat, Apr 11 at LA Clippers W
- Mon, Apr 13 Oklahoma City W
- Wed, Apr 15 Denver W
HOUSTON
(current: 50-28) (projected: 53-29)
(5 seed)
- Thu, Apr 9 at Sacramento W
- Fri, Apr 10 at Golden State W (2d of back to back)
- Mon, Apr 13 New Orleans W (lost to them once already)
- Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L
DALLAS
(current: 47-31) (projected: 50-32)
(6 seed)
- Fri, Apr 10 New Orleans W (lost to them TWICE already)
- Sun, Apr 12 at New Orleans L
- Mon, Apr 13 Minnesota W (2d of back-to-back)
- Wed, Apr 15 Houston W
NEW ORLEANS
(current: 48-30) (projected: 49-33)
(7 seed)
- Fri, Apr 10 at Dallas L (beat them TWICE already)
- Sun, Apr 12 Dallas W
- Mon, Apr 13 at Houston L
- Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L (possible W if Spurs rest guys?)
UTAH
(current: 47-31) (projected: 49-33)
(8 seed)
- Fri, Apr 10 at San Antonio L
- Sat, Apr 11 Golden State W (2d of back-to-back)
- Mon, Apr 13 LA Clippers W
- Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L (possible W if Lakers rest guys?)
PHOENIX
(current: 43-35) (projected: 47-35)
(OUT)
- Fri, Apr 10 at Memphis W
- Sat, Apr 11 at Minnesota W (2d of back-to-back)
- Mon, Apr 13 Memphis W
- Wed, Apr 15 Golden State W
Wish list now? One loss for either the Rockets (this is expected) or Spurs (this is not technically expected, but with Manu's injury and Tim Duncan hobbling, probably should be), or both. Simple enough, right?
11 recs |
102 comments
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50 Wins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Next stop: Puttin the beat-down on the Fakers
It's spelled "PRZYBILLA."
vanillathrillagorillaprzybilla
by RenoBlazerFan on Apr 8, 2009 7:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Spurs v Houston season=2-2, conf=virtual tie, div=tie
We don’t really know who will have the tiebreaker between Houston and the Spurs.
Right now, if it was Spurs 4th and Blazers 5th, man that looked easy in San Antonio once we started playing.
Finishing 3rd and getting Dallas might not be where we want to be. Vs New Orleans having homecourt probably spells victory. 3rd does delay a potential Fakers matchup until the WCF, however. (Go J*zz???)
It is funny that everyone (including me) is trying to engineer scenarios that maximize the Blazers’ chances to push through to later rounds. That would admittedly be majorly cool. Still, just being the in the position to play for homecourt in the first round with the playoffs looming for these young guys is freaking amazing.
Go Blazers!!!
by LaoTzu on Apr 9, 2009 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wouldn't be spurs 4th and Blazers 5th, though, as tie with Spurs goes to Blazers
unless Spurs are division winners
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Mo' Losses
You say 54 wins Sir…. and & 4th seed.
S.A. falls into our lap?
My good man, U R Correct!
The Oden Era, Day 657
by Heymoe on Apr 8, 2009 7:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I see a 3 and 1 for SAS, Hou and us.
Does that give us rd 1 HCA over the Spurs too?
Then the L*kers?
Bedge or go home.
by Ojala John on Apr 8, 2009 8:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
nope
We need Houston to finish behind us, because I believe SA has the likely tiebreaker over Houston and would be a division winner in that scenario, thus pushing us back. Portland’s tiebreaker with SA only works if neither team is a division winner.
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 8, 2009 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
or have SA finish behind Hou
have Hou finish 3rd winning the SW, us coming in with at least a tie w/ SA and we are 4th and SA is 5th and
HELLO 2ND ROUND!!!
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
by SpyderRyder on Apr 8, 2009 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, for clarity, if Hou goes 4-0.
And we and SA go 3-1.
We then finish #4?
Bedge or go home.
by Ojala John on Apr 8, 2009 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah and we want ut to beat them
on fri as Timmay should still be resting if not out so they could be hurting as well as the b2b against a running team like GS @ GS. NO also plays them tough so they could have 3 losses potentially.
Hou has kinda a tough road and could drop one meaning SA would have to drop 2. If they drop 3 they could lose that spot to NO or Dal. Best case scenario is to root for Hou and against Dal, NO and SA.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
by SpyderRyder on Apr 8, 2009 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
not exactly
If Houston drops one, then all SA has to do is drop one also and we finish ahead of them, unless you really want the 4-5 matchup instead of a 3-6 with Dallas, which I guess would be understandable, given the season history with Dallas.
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bring on Dallas
I want the 3 seed over 4 seed period. Avoiding Lakers in round 2 and hoping that Rockets could rough them up in round 2 would be nice.
by Zaig on Apr 9, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
I’m not nearly as afraid of Dallas as most around here seem to be. I don’t think we played a good game against them yet, so I think our 0-3 record is somewhat flukey.
Besides, I think NO will hold on to the 6 spot
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Apr 9, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
SAS and Hou were 2 and 2 head to head
Right now SAS has the better division record over Houston at 9-6 vs 8-6. But SAS must play NOH while Houston still faces NOH and @Dal. Houston and San Antonio are currently tied in the next tie breaker at 32-16 conference records which meas if Both Houston and San Antonio win out then it will come down to record against west playoff teams to decide their conference.
In all cases, we should prefer that Houston beat SA in the final standings, other wise the Blazer need both team to suffer more loses then they incur from here on out.
by NWfan on Apr 9, 2009 1:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The tiebreaker is still up in the air between Houston and SA.. they split the season series..
are tied in the loss column in the division (SA has NO left, Houston has NO and at Dallas left)
And are tied in the conference..
I have no idea if how u break that tie for the division title if both win the rest of their games
by Rudy4three on Apr 8, 2009 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If SA and Houston end up with equal division records, Houston should win the tiebreak
Houston has a better record against Western Conference playoff teams.
by trk on Apr 9, 2009 1:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Three way-tie, If you didn't break the division title first
would go to Portland by head to head as portland is now 5-2 vs SA and Hou while Houston is 4-3 and San Antonio is 3-3. I presume a t2-team tie break would decide the division winner first and then the three way is made. If it is still considered a three way tie then portland would be second only to the division winner.
by NWfan on Apr 9, 2009 1:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not a three-way tie, as division title determination goes first
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't foresee both the Blazers and the Spurs winning out
Thats games against NO, LAL, Denver, and Utah, all with assumed wins by those 2 teams. That’s not too likely to me.
by rmcdougall on Apr 8, 2009 8:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We have a good shot against Denver at home.
Season finale and all. It’s the back to back that worries me…
by Blazin' on Apr 8, 2009 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Spurs will probably lose one more.. I think we'll lose one more, although we really
shouldn’t given our home court edge.
I think Houston gets the 3 seed if they can just handle at Dallas, whenever that game is..
Im hoping we are the 4 and SA the 5… Beat the Spurs, then get a shot with the Lakers.. Would be a great learning experience
by Rudy4three on Apr 8, 2009 8:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
With Utah losing tonight they will have every reason to go hard against the Spurs
…in hopes of avoiding the 8th seed.
by QuebecBlzrFan on Apr 8, 2009 8:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
San Antonio
wins 3 way tiebreaker. To get HCA (4 seed) our best shot is for Houston to pass San Antonio…
by Blazin' on Apr 8, 2009 9:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Are you sure? Wouldn't they break the tie between SA and Houston first in order to decide which team wins the division?
by Rudy4three on Apr 8, 2009 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dave covers this on the home page today
“The division-winner tiebreaking process supersedes the three-way tie process. In other words, a division winner is determined first between Houston and San Antonio and THEN the three-way tie between them and Portland is resolved.”
He then goes on to explain how that process breaks down.
by QuebecBlzrFan on Apr 9, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Q for OP:
Is your projected final standings correct? We win tiebreaker with San Antonio. Doesn’t that make us a 3 seed?
by Blazin' on Apr 8, 2009 9:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Tiebreakers
SA wins the tie breaker with Denver : head to head I believe
SA wins the tie breaker with Portland : Division Winner
Denver wins the tie breaker with Portland : Division record if PDX win’s last game, which they must to force the tie.
by usmcr3049 on Apr 8, 2009 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love this team
As much as you hate the fact that they often seem to fall into early big deficits on the road, one thing this team never does is quit. That’s character, that’s coaching, that’s heart, that’s intangibles, that’s “veteran” play.
Anyone out there still prefer Houston to the Spurs in round one? Didn’t think so. The reality is, San Antonio has exactly three players who would actually see the court if they were on our roster. One of them is out for the year. One of them is clearly somewhere between 60 and 80 percent healthy. Tony can get his 20 to 25, just don’t let him go off for 40. We defend Timmy as well as anyone, and we have a lot of bodies to throw at him to do it. The rest of the team features NO ONE who can create offense at all. It’s laughable watching that team out there when Tony and Tim are both on the bench. Where is their offense coming from? Answer: “What offense?”
I give our chances at finishing above 4th at about 15% right now, so I’m just pulling for Houston to pull out the 3 seed, leaving us and San Antonio to do battle in round one. I’d LOVE to see Utah fall to 8th, as they should give the L*kers a much tougher run than Dallas will. What’s interesting is LA ends the season with a home game against Utah. They could be in the position where letting Utah win means they get Dallas in round one (who they’ve swept this year).
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Apr 8, 2009 9:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I cannot wait to see
SA have to face us in a game 7 after we have ran circles around them in the previous 6 games but losing at their place.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
by SpyderRyder on Apr 8, 2009 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I totally forgot we have the l*kers on the 2ns night of a b2b
with them playing Den tomorrow and then us on Fri….and it is supposed to be raining on Fri!!
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
by SpyderRyder on Apr 8, 2009 10:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
let it rain!!! If it annoys phil and kobe then I am all for it!!
I Blazersedge daily, nightly and ever so rightly.
by Claire on Apr 8, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
even PHIL knows that the Fakers can't win in Portland!
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just have to throw this in.
Just have to throw this in.
I know the Blazers are improving rapidly – and they are awesome.
But:
It seems like we’ve crossed some hurdles this year that are no longer as big as we remember.
Do you remember earlier in the season when we were showing dominance over the Pistons? Now we have to wonder if part of that reason is them going down.
Brandon’s historic defeat of the Suns? Well, they aren’t quite as bad as Detroit, but they aren’t those same Suns we used to fear; even with Amar’e.
Tonight we had a special win. Those immortal Spurs. But are they really the invulnerable machine we used to know them as?
While these are still important victories we should celebrate, I feel like our target victories should be redirected away from dying powers and toward our true rivals. By no means are these teams chumps, but neither are we.
Our new grade next year will be quite different. Even if we fall in the first round, we will be viewed as the Hornets or Jazz were at the beginning of this season.
What I will remember is the first loss to the Lakers. I will remember how mad I was when the Cavs beat us. I will want to see the Celtics embarrassed – in Boston.
New teams will come to challenge us in time, but from mid April on there are only two things I am looking for: Consistent dismantling of other teams and strong victories against these three teams.
I know, I know… It’s too optimistic for next year and it’s too pessimistic for this one. But I bet Brandon Roy is telling himself the same thing.
by staylost on Apr 8, 2009 10:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah thats a very good point
but still, we beat LA handily. We beat the celtics handily. We took cleveland to within 1 inch of (pre-overtime) celebration of their second home loss of the season during our grueling road trip. Until the heartbreaking finish, we had ORL beat in that game. Point is we can hang with the best.
This team has still proved a lot even if you barry bonds (asterick) the recent 20+pt surge against injured discombobulated teams like Utah or old ones like PHX.
We definitely are looking to the bright side and probably overestimating our team a bit with their given run..but then again-if LMA can play at this level, attacking the rim and playing with the passion you’ve been dying for since we drafted him—can you blame us?
AND PLEASE: Can someone give GO whatever LMA is drinking? If Greg goes all assassin mode, noone will want to play us—at home or otherwise.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
by nima on Apr 8, 2009 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's the goals
1) beat poor teams 95% of the time at home (did that this year)
2) beat poor teams 75% of the time on the road (did that this year)
3) beat 4-9 seed teams 75% at home (did that this year)
4) beath 4-9 seed teams 40% on the road (need work here)
5) split your games with title contenders (did with Boston, Orlando, and maybe the L*kers, need to work on Cleveland).
I think we’ll be fine. we are tracking nicely, and getting better as the season progresses. That bodes well for us.
If we win in LA next week, we end up 20-21 on the road. Only 7 teams will win more road games this year. Not bad at all for a very young team. We hold down the RG next year like we did this year, then all we need to do is add 5 road wins, and we are in the upper 50s.
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Apr 8, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question and clarification: If Denver is pretty much closing in on the #2 see, the highest seed we can get is #4 right?
Because the NBA gives the top 3 seeds to division winners, but home court advantage is based on records.
I seriously thought this is the case? Anyone know for sure?
if it wasn't for food, baby-making, and Blazers playoff tickets, i wouldn't be working
by broyposse on Apr 8, 2009 10:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
not exactly
if we finish with a better record (not tied – better) than BOTH SA and Houston (unlikely), then we will be the #3 seed. However, once their division winner is determined, if we are TIED with them, then we lose the 1st tiebreaker (division winner status), and fall to 4 or 5.
Scenarios (assuming Denver gets 2 seed):
Portland/Houston tied, SA behind:
3) Houston, 4) Portland, 5) SA
Portland/SA tied, Houston behind:
3) SA, 4) Portland, 5) Houston
All 3 teams tied, Houston wins division:
3) Houston, 4) Portland, 5) SA
All 3 teams tied, SA wins division:
3) SA, 4) Houston, 5) Portland
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Apr 8, 2009 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
long story short:
If you want the 3 seed, you gotta finish ahead of them both Otherwise, hope Houston wins the SW
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Apr 8, 2009 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
BANG, PA-POW!
Blazers comin!
If we are top 8 seed, you better watch out.
LMA: 35 points, 18 rebounds against "OKC." Beaste!
by prezofdeath on Apr 8, 2009 11:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Rooting Question
so, who we rooting for in Denver tomorrow? On the one hand, do we want the L*kers coming in off a loss? Not really. On the other hand, Denver locking up the 2 spot before we face them on the final night would be a good thing.
I think in the end, I’ll just root for 7 overtimes.
Friday night is the most likely loss remaining on our schedule. and yes, I know we have owned them at our building lately, but that streak has to end sooner or later – they are just too good a team for it not to.
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Apr 8, 2009 11:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
even if Denver loses
they can clinch the division before the Portland game. They have the superior division record.
draft dejuan blair
by Cablinasian on Apr 9, 2009 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh i know
but the L*kers aren’t going to be resting Friday no matter what happens tomorrow, and I don’t want to give them any extra motivation, so that’s why I root for Denver.
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Apr 9, 2009 12:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
we root for Denver to lose until they clinch
if they somehow lose against LA and Sacramento, and the last game is for the division, I WANT that game. Doesn’t everyone?
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Dallas gets the 6 seed
I don’t want the 3 seed. I’d much rather face the possibility of getting the Lakers in the second round than Dallas in the first even with homecourt.
by MavetheGreat on Apr 9, 2009 1:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
can't be scared of Dallas.
Gotta face ’em.
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Houston?
I would rather play San Antonio without home-court than play Houston with home-court.
I don’t think your projected final standings would be good for the Blazers. I’m hoping it ends up:
1 Lakers
2 Denver
3 Houston
4 Portland
5 San Antonio
6 New Orleans
7 Utah
8 Dallas
It would be nice to see the Jazz knock off the Nuggets for us in the 2 versus 7 match-up.
by ajinoregon on Apr 9, 2009 1:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
not sure how Utah knocking off Denver does anything for us if we are the 4 seed
we play the 1/8 winner in round two (if we make it).
Ideal for me:
1 L*kers
2 Denver
3 Portland
4 San Antonio
5 Houston
6 New Orleans
7 Dallas
8 Utah
if we get the 4 (much more likely):
1 L*kers
2 Denver
3 Houston
4 Portland
5 San Antonio
6 Dallas
7 New Orleans
8 Utah
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Apr 9, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Den at LAL is on TNT tonite
Cant wait to hear Slur Charles take on the powerful Jazz and the weak Blazers
by southern oregon on Apr 9, 2009 2:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
From Hollinger on ESPN
Here:
Given those parameters, the remaining schedules and the injuries facing San Antonio, the most likely outcome would appear to be Houston winning the division and going in as the No. 3 seed, Portland entering the playoffs at No. 4 and San Antonio limping as the fifth seed and visiting Portland to start the postseason.
by rmcdougall on Apr 9, 2009 2:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow
If we had the third seed and played the Jazz… I would like that matchup.
draft dejuan blair
by Cablinasian on Apr 9, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Hollinger hasn't looked at the remaining schedules
as my expert projections have Portland finishing a game clear of Houston. We are far more likely to win out than Houston, and there is no tiebreaker if we are a game AHEAD of them
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Expert projections :-)
Win at home
Win at road vs sub .500
Lose at road vs 500+
Not exactly scientific. I do think that our schedule is slightly easier than the Rockets, but not my a lot.
by Zaig on Apr 9, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it only takes one game, and that road game at Dallas
looms like a Loss for them, unless Dallas has somehow secured a slot at that point, which I doubt. They could even lose at GS tomorrow
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phil Jackson knows I'm right...he's not even showing up for tomorrow night's game!
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lakers might be better w/o Phil!
No one to stop Kobe now!
by Zaig on Apr 9, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
K*be will shoot 80 shots, score 50 points, but lose
cause the rest of the team will only score 26
It's spelled "PRZYBILLA."
vanillathrillagorillaprzybilla
by RenoBlazerFan on Apr 9, 2009 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And
Since they have the tiebreaker, even if we have the statistical advantage, they have a possible advantage.
Example:
Statistically we win 3.3 games. Since we can’t win a .3, we’re looking at a probably 3 wins.
Statistically they win 2.7 games. Since they can’t win a .7, they’re looking at 3 wins.
And, they get the tiebreaker.
Goes back to the logic that even if we are 80% favorites in every game, we should lose a game.
If they are only 70% favorite in every game, they should still only lose 1 game.
by Zaig on Apr 9, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
probabilities don't work in a sample size this small
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, when you come up with 3.3 vs. 2.7, that shows the difficulty in projecting with probabilities.
That’s where the game by game approach comes in.
Portland is just not likely to lose any game outside of the Laker game, as Denver will have clinched by the last game of the season.
And the Laker game they are HIGHLY HIGHLY motivated for, after the injury to Rudy. Just don’t see Portland losing again.
And I don’t see Houston winning out, and see them far more likely to lose TWO than we are to lose ONE
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm, that might be taking it a bit far.
Houston is less likely to lose 0 games than we are to lose 0 games.
Houston is more likely to lose 1 game than we are to lose 1 game.
Houston is more likely to lose 2 games than we are to lose 2 games.
However, I think it’s a stretch to say we are more likely to go 4-0 than they are to go 3-1. Hopefully I’m wrong, but right now beating Houston seems like a coinflip because of the tiebreaker issue.
I also pulled the 3.3 and 2.7 out of thin air as an example. Not sure what %s I’d actually use. We’d be ahead, but not by a full point, which is what we’d need to have the advantage in terms of probability. Let’s just hope Dallas come into the final game of the season with a grudge, and that Portland can start a post Memphis 13 game winning streak again. (That’d get us a 3-0 lead in the second round of playoffs, where we could lose 1 and then start winning again!)
by Zaig on Apr 9, 2009 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
there is NO WAY the Jazz end up as the 6 seed. It’s either Dallas, or more likely New Orleans. It may be technically possible for the Jazz to get it, but I would bet heavily against it
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Apr 9, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i predicted 54 preseason, and i got proof
neener neener
by cloudydays on Apr 9, 2009 3:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
congrats!
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
woot
we should have a “54 wins prediction” party or something
by cloudydays on Apr 9, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
can I party too
even if I only predicted 51? – Elgin
Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards
by 22baylor on Apr 9, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, your party will just be EARLIER than ours!!!
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I bet Houston wins out
and we don’t, and neither does SA. That would give us the 4 seed over SA.
by rmcdougall on Apr 9, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
bite your tongue
we have a better shot at winning out than they do. We WANT them to lose. We WANT the 3 seed!!!
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Houston loses AT LEAST once
I think they lose to GS and Dallas.
SA also loses AT LEAST once.
by cloudydays on Apr 9, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah their schedule is tougher
Especially if Denver rests their old men in the final game and we don’t.
by Zaig on Apr 9, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
root against SA and Houston, then!
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't expect that we will be short on motivation tomorrow,
but we should never underestimate the Fkers. We have not beaten them when facing both Pau and Bynum at the same time. Let’s make tomorrow the first!
Seriously though, I think the game hinges on LaMarcus continuing his beast mode. They will have a number of guys to throw at him on defense, from Odumb to Pau to possibly even Bynum. If he employs his full arsenal against the Fker big men, we should have no problem beating them in our house, even if Kbe does what he does. And with Phil Jax not in the building, it’s doubly important to get their coaches on their heels. Wouldn’t hurt to see Oden dominate Bynum either.
by premthegrem on Apr 9, 2009 3:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't see Bynum being a factor tomorrow
first game back is tonight and he goes right into a back to back? Not sure he’ll play much
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On NBA Fastbreak the guys (Rose, Legler?) still said Utah is the toughest competitor for the Lakers
Based on the fact that they have a 1-1 record against them this year, and a “deep athletic bench”. They briefly mentioned their away problems, labeling their record on the road “not so stellar”. D’oh! Understatement of the year.
by Norsktroll on Apr 9, 2009 3:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ah yes, but they're TRENDING up!!! (based on their one win)
Just like Portland is trending up!!!
It’s just that we STARTED higher before the trend, is all ;)
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"trending up"
Though patience be a tired mare, yet she will plod. - William Shakespeare
Roses are red
violets in bloom
Sophia’s in love
with Nicholas Batum
-Bow4Meow
by BlazerFan1 on Apr 9, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"trending up"
Is it the new trend to say that? If so, I’m definitely part of the “in” crowd now! WOOT!
by Zaig on Apr 9, 2009 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
THANK YOU!!!!
Though patience be a tired mare, yet she will plod. - William Shakespeare
Roses are red
violets in bloom
Sophia’s in love
with Nicholas Batum
-Bow4Meow
by BlazerFan1 on Apr 9, 2009 3:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Third seed is easily in range...
draft dejuan blair
by Cablinasian on Apr 9, 2009 4:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Charles the Obese
Is sure that Utah is better than Den
by southern oregon on Apr 9, 2009 5:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You mean "Flabby Blabby"..........
Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...
by timbo on Apr 9, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I could find a cheap costume jewlery imitation
Of an NBA championship ring I would send it to him
by southern oregon on Apr 9, 2009 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There must be some broke former NBA player who is willing to put a real one up for sale
by Norsktroll on Apr 9, 2009 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im talking about
Something cheap enough to go with the Salvation Army wardrobe look.
by southern oregon on Apr 9, 2009 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
SA is NOT winning out. NOT winning out. NOT.
I don’t care if they are playing the wives and little sisters of Creampuff and the Creamsickles, that team is DAMAGED and they are not gonna win 4 in a row.
Blazers have a tough road to 4 in a row (Lakers and Denver) but I think it can be done.
Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...
by timbo on Apr 9, 2009 5:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree SA won't win out.
will adjust my bolding for tomorrow’s post
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
mabey someone already said this…but shouldnt’ the nuggets vs. kings game be highlighted as a game we dont want to go the way it should? That would make the final game for the division title (assuming we win out)???
Hot Blazer Fan wanted!
by davidson777 on Apr 9, 2009 6:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Probably
but when I first highlighted them, I picked only REALISTIC games where the unexpected might happen and couldn’t come up with an argument in my mind for why I thought Sacramento would win it. I guess thinking positively, I should bold it JUST IN CASE. Maybe on tomorrow’s post, assuming LA wins tonight!!!
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great Post!
I’m going to ignore the fact you used term “knowledge bomb.”
Still trying to figure out the C value paradox...
by Sexual Tyrannosaurus on Apr 9, 2009 7:03 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
yeah...stupid local sports show
creeping into my vocab.
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!
And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
by blazer91 on Apr 9, 2009 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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