Experience Not Required

by Magnum on Apr 8, 2009 1:52 PM PDT

Normally, I would have made this a fanshot, but because this question is extremely relevant to our interets and merits much discussion I made it a fanpost.

The question is: Does previous playoff experience matter when it comes to winning games?

Bear with me here, it's an ESPN insider story: Coming of Age

Update: Now available without insider access, link provided by Diesel10

For those of you without insider access or anyone too lazy to click the link, I will quote the important passages here.

"We calculated a "playoff score" which adds one point for each playoff win, subtracts one point for each playoff loss and awards four points for making the playoffs as well as for each subsequent series win. We also created a projected playoff score based on a team's regular-season record, point differential and seeding."

"Doing this shows a very, very slight value to postseason experience. For every 250 additional games of postseason experience, teams on average gain one playoff score point relative to their projection -- that is, about one extra win. The difference between the '96-97 Clippers and the most experienced team in the past 13 seasons (last year's Spurs) is about four playoff score points."

"If we look strictly at the least experienced playoff teams, it's hard to find much evidence that their youth worked against them. The 12 teams that entered the postseason with fewer than 100 games of playoff experience on their roster combined to post a playoff score of 4.1 despite an expected score of 2.9. In other words, they actually overachieved as a group."

Poll

Does the Blazers' lack of playoff experience hurt their chances to win in the playoffs?

Yes

23 votes

No

26 votes

I am more concerned about road games than experience

88 votes

137 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 16 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

For those voting for road games over expirience

Losing road games are a directly related to inexpirience

"Grayg"
-Nate

by OSUBlazerfan on Apr 8, 2009 1:59 PM PDT reply actions

Exactly

Momma.....der go dat man

by AllHailRoy on Apr 8, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions

That's circular reasoning

I haven’t seen a study that has ever analyzed whether losing in the playoffs (i.e., gaining playoff experience) predicts future success…

Besides the question asked whether lack of playoff experience will hurt their chances. Are you suggesting that the reason the Blazers are not that great on the road during the regular season relates to their lack of playoff experience?

.-*

Take it to the Hole!!

by galacticlove on Apr 8, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

I love this.

I heart taxes.

by everett on Apr 8, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Denver will be a good case study

They have won one playof game in the last 2 years. Will those losses pay better dividends than the Blazers youth? it is hard to say but I’d rather denver face Dallas than Portland.

by NWfan on Apr 8, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions

lack of experience in general

contributes to that

Magneto was right

MEMO TO KP-GET BIRDZILLA!

by WhiteRabbit on Apr 8, 2009 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions

but

“experience” (however defined) isnt the only thing that contributes to developing the ability to win on the road, in the playoffs or otherwise. I think it is clear that this team has gotten better the more the core of players play together, so I guess the reasoning is that the more it plays together the better it will play – translating into becoming a better road team and a contender.

well duh it makes sense when you say it like that.. but there are plenty of teams who play together for awhile and never do anything with it. Maybe being losers in the playoffs for a couple of years can help build a player/team up to where they need to be. It took a few hard fought losses to the Pistons for Jordan and his team to raise their game to where it needed to be to achieve what they did. But there are plenty more teams who appear to have talent and spend awhile losing in the playoffs but it just ends in a rebuild. that’s the green NBA for ya…

Take it to the Hole!!

by galacticlove on Apr 9, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions

Not necessarily

Most teams are significantly worse on the road than at home. This year e.g. the Mavs have a lot of experience, but are bad on the road just like the young Blazers. In a playoff series against Houston a few years ago, they lost their initial 2 home games before they came back to win the series.

by Norsktroll on Apr 8, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions

I disagree

Houston has way more experience than us, and similar home/road records.
New Orleans isn’t really spewing experience and they have a better road record than Houston, Portland, Utah, Dallas, Phoenix, and Denver.

You could argue that the Spurs (ultra experience) are good on the road. But the Timberwolves (Telfair, Foye, Love) are actually BETTER on the road than home, despite their lack of experience.

I’d have to see a “playing roster experience” vs home and road record analysis to prove this, but I don’t think you’d find anything.

by Zaig on Apr 8, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions

It seems like the round in question is another important variable

I suspect it’s easier for inexperienced teams to sneak a first or second round win, but then falter in the conference finals or league finals.

by chnews on Apr 8, 2009 2:05 PM PDT reply actions

Now available in its entirety at Basketball Prospectus

Thanks, Kevin Pelton!

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=635

< /war >

by Diesel10 on Apr 8, 2009 2:13 PM PDT reply actions

sweet

silly insider

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Apr 8, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Did the '77 Blazers have ANY playoff experience?

I think if they had any, it wasn’t much.

by crakarjack on Apr 8, 2009 2:49 PM PDT reply actions

As a franchise, no

I’m not sure about the individual players but it was the first time the Blazers ever even made the playoffs, was the year we won it.

And the best part— with their regular season record, they wouldn’t have made the playoffs last year or this year.

I think the ’77 win is a crazy example not likely to be repeated any decade soon.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Apr 8, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions

From b-ref.com...

Maurice Lucas had 20 games and 705 minutes prior to ’77 (ABA).
Dave Twardzik had 7 games and 112 minutes (ABA).
Herm Gilliam had 18 games and 456 minutes (ABA and NBA).
Clyde Mayes had 3 games and 41 minutes (NBA).

That totals to 48 games and 1314 minutes prior to the championship for the entire team.

by poster on Apr 8, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions