The Latest Look at Playoff Seeding
by Dave on Apr 6, 2009 11:57 PM PDT
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PrintNow that the Blazers have officially clinched a playoff spot it's time for an update on where they're likely to end up. I know we just ran down the system framework last week but standings and possibilities change on a near-nightly basis. Keeping track amidst the chaos is important.
Last time we looked at all of the things that could happen. Technically speaking anything could still happen, short of the Blazers falling out of the playoffs. This time we're going to take a different approach and look at what's likely to happen.
Let's look at the Blazers first. They currently sit 5th in the West.
Portland Trail Blazers
Record: 48-28
Games Remaining: @Memphis, @San Antonio, L*kers, @Clippers, Oklahoma City, Denver
Portland faces three tough games and three winnable ones. Barring a collapse 3-3 would be the minimum record. It's not impossible to imagine the Blazers going 5-1 so we'll use that as the outer limit. That gives a range of 51-53 wins.
We're going to take a Blazer-centric view here and run down the 2-7 teams in order, comparing them to Portland's projected totals. We'll look at potential tiebreakers. Remember the tie-breaker decision tree runs like this:
1. Did either team win their division?
2. Head-to-Head Record
3. Record Against Division IF the two teams are in the same division
4. Record Against Conference
Denver Nuggets
Record: 52-26
Games Remaining: Oklahoma City, @L*kers, Sacramento, @Portland
Denver is gone, folks. They've won 7 straight and 9 of their last 10. They're not going to win all of their remaining games. In fact I doubt they'll win in L.A. or Portland. But even picking up the two easy games at home puts them at 54 wins. The Blazers would have to win every remaining game just to tie. The head-to-head record between the two teams would be tied but the Nuggets would still own the division record by a hair and the conference record by a mile. In other words, the Blazers will almost certainly have to pass Denver, not tie them, to come out ahead. Only a complete upheaval could make that happen.
Denver's magic number vis-a-vis the Blazers is 2. Any combination of Denver wins or Portland losses that adds up to 2 clinches their supremacy over us.
San Antonio Spurs
Record: 49-27
Games Remaining: @Oklahoma City, Portland, Utah, @Sacramento, @Golden State, New Orleans
The Spurs are in an interesting position. They have three easier games on the road and three tougher games at home. Even if you shuffle them and figure a 3-3 result that puts them at 52 wins. That's in Portland's range but a lot of things have to go right to entertain the thought of passing them.
The game against Portland is the critical one for our purposes. If San Antonio wins they tie the season series. They own the conference record by a mile and might yet win their division so Portland would have to pass them in order to finish ahead. Absent a collapse by the Spurs the Blazers would need to have at most 1 loss to make that plausible. That would be a tall order. The Blazers' best chance (maybe the only one) is to take the tiebreaker via a victory Wednesday night. Then they have to keep playing well and hope the Spurs end up losing one more than they do.
Houston Rockets
Record: 49-28
Games Remaining: Orlando, @Sacramento, @Golden State, New Orleans, @Dallas
The good news is that the Blazers are only ½ game behind the Rockets right now. The bad news is the Rockets won the tiebreaker by virtue of their victory Sunday night. Houston would have to lose 3 games to make the Blazers' chances decent. Orlando is a possibility. At Dallas maybe? 3 losses seems like a stretch here though. If they only lose 2 then Portland is forced to win 53 to pass them, necessitating that 5-1 record again.
New Orleans Hornets
Record: 47-29
Games Remaining: @Miami, Phoenix, @Dallas, Dallas, @Houston, @San Antonio
Now we get to stop asking whether the Blazers can catch people and ask whether anyone can catch the Blazers. Though they're only a game behind, New Orleans has a tough schedule remaining. All of their opponents are over .500. All of them but Phoenix are playoff-bound. 4 of their 6 games are on the road. They don't win both Dallas games and they don't beat both Houston and San Antonio on the road so their maximum reasonable target would appear to be 51 wins. That's at the bottom of Portland's range. If the teams did end up tied at 51 wins the Hornets would own the tiebreaker by virtue of conference record, but that's not likely. This is another situation where we could know in a couple of days if there's any chance of them passing us. The odds aren't good.
Utah Jazz
Record: 47-30
Games Remaining: @Dallas, @San Antonio, Golden State, Clippers, @L*kers
The Jazz have a tough schedule as well, with three difficult road games, two of those brutal. You might figure 1 win in there, being generous. That would put them at 50-32 overall, underneath Portland's reasonable range. If Portland went cold or Utah got hot the tiebreaker here is still up in the air. If the Blazers win against OKC and Denver in their final two games then they own the tiebreaker by virtue of division wins. If they split those games or lose both then Utah owns it because of either division or conference wins. It's still possible that Utah could overtake us but the odds aren't good here either.
Dallas Mavericks
Record: 46-31
Games Remaining: Utah, New Orleans, @New Orleans, Minnesota, Houston
The Mavs have 4 home games remaining out of 5 total but they're running out of room to mount a charge. Four of those games are reasonably tough. A 4-1 record would be quite generous and that still only gets them to 50 wins. They'd need serious help from the Blazers even to tie. If they do tie Portland they'd own the tiebreaker because they swept us in the regular season.
Long story short, it looks like Portland is narrowed in on the 5th seed in the West. It would take some serious streaking to dislodge them from either direction but it's more likely they'd rise than fall. The best chance for any move being made is the Blazers beating San Antonio on Wednesday.
We don't know exactly who the 4th seed would be yet though. Assuming each team wins the games it should win and loses the ones it should lose, leaving some wiggle room for close matchups, the ranges look like this:
- Denver 54-55 wins
- San Antonio 53-54 wins
- Houston 52-53 wins
- Portland 51-53 wins
- New Orleans 49-50 wins
- Utah 49 wins
- Dallas 49-50 wins
The Rockets own the tiebreaker with the Nuggets if they win the division over San Antonio. They will not if they don't (assuming Denver wins the Northwest Division). The Rockets-Spurs tiebreaker is too close to call at this point. The Nuggets own the tiebreaker over the Spurs no matter what (again, assuming Denver wins the division).
Naturally it's dangerous to assume anything. At least one or two of these teams will probably go on a streak either direction in the next week.
Right now it looks like the opponent will probably be the Rockets but it could be the Spurs. Anything else would be a surprise.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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No mention of Manu being out for the season?
Am I to assume you don’t think that changes the Spurs’ chances/focus?
"Well, Travis just showed us that we can go to Travis Outlaw." - Nate McMillan
The Spurs are 17-15 without Manu this season
3-3 gets them to 52 wins.
The Blazers would still have to win in San Antonio on Wednesday in order to reasonably consider beating them out.
Manu hasn’t played in any of the games against Portland this year. The Blazers beat San Antonio by 1 at home in the first game, lost by 15 in San Antonio in the second game, and beat the Spurs by 18 at home in the third game. The difference between games had nothing to do with Ginobili and everything to do with Parker and Duncan, both of whom are still playing.
—Dave
Yeah.. I wasn’t thinking so much that they’d necessarily be a crap team all of a sudden, just that:
Yeah.. I wasn’t thinking so much that they’d necessarily be a crap team all of a sudden, just that:1. They’d be more likely to rest Parker/Duncan in their remaining games, perhaps.
2. Their focus on a championship could be altered and they might be dispirited.
Yeah.. I wasn’t thinking so much that they’d necessarily be a crap team all of a sudden, just that:1. They’d be more likely to rest Parker/Duncan in their remaining games, perhaps.
2. Their focus on a championship could be altered and they might be dispirited.Option 2’s a little shaky, I know, but if I was grinding it out all season looking for championship number 6,000 in the past ten years, then lose a major cog of our offensive machine, I might get a little glum. I’m not saying I’d pack it in or anything, but “this just wasn’t our year”-ness could creep in, and that might be a good thing for the Blazers.
"Well, Travis just showed us that we can go to Travis Outlaw." - Nate McMillan
But if the Spurs go 3-3
There’s a decent shot EITHER the Rockets or Blazers beats them out, and either way we avoid the dreaded 4-5 Rockets/Blazers matchup.
But I agree, Portland needs to beat the Spurs tomorrow night. No doubt that is the best shot to get into the top half of the bracket, as my projections post demonstrates.
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!! And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
If Ginobili's out I want the Spurs.
I know the Spurs are crafty vets and all, and that you should be careful what you wish for with these guys, but Houston is a matchup nightmare for the Blazers and their physical play seems to throw our guys off their gameplan.
I think Houston’s got a really good shot at the 3 seed anyhow. In contrast the Spurs seem tired, a step slow and generally beat down. I wouldn’t exactly predict a Blazer series victory, but I like our chances a lot more than I did a week ago.
Wednesday’s game is gonna be HUGE.
Hit it. Yes he did. Ohhhh yeah.
by Badalona Baddie on Apr 7, 2009 12:02 AM PDT reply actions
Dave, can you explain this email to me?
It was written by Bobby Corser, KXL employee.
Portland has to finish ahead of Houston 2 games up in all reality. One game up, they still would lose out with all the tie breakers.
When I asked about the validity of the statement, he elaborated.
As the blazers PR people told me today, there are six different tie breaker solutions. There is a division vs conf. thing that Portland would lose out on, so they would have to finish up at least 2. You are right about Houston winning the division, they would get a top 4 seed. There would be little room for Portland if that happened…. I think we’ll be ok here on out, but lets see what happens.
I thought a tiebreaker only happened if the two teams were tied.
draft dejuan blair
I think there are many things being confused here
It’s probably in the way they’re phrasing it. Tiebreakers are TIE-breakers. They mean nothing if the two teams aren’t tied.
The best way to think of it is that Portland has to beat out Houston, not just tie them. That means picking up another game on them.
Right now the two teams are even in the loss column (28 losses) and Portland is 1 game behind in the win column (Houston 49, Portland 48). That means officially we’re 1/2 game behind them overall. But picking up that one extra win isn’t good enough because they win ties. Being tied with them at 49-28 would still leave us behind them as far as playoff seeds. The half game doesn’t mean anything to us. We need to gain another game beyond that. In a sense, that means two wins. The first win evens us up. The next win puts us ahead.
I’m pretty sure that’s what they’re trying to say. Instead of saying, “We have to finish 2 wins ahead of them” the phrase should be “We need to gain two wins on them in this final stretch instead of just one.”
The confusion will be alleviated if people watch the loss column instead of the win column. Portland needs to end up with a lower number in the loss column than Houston to finish ahead of them in the seeding race. As long as Portland’s losses are equal to or greater than Houston’s we’re going to lose out to them. In other words, instead of saying we need to pick up 2 wins on them (which in a way is accurate but isn’t complete and leads to confusion) say instead we need them to get another loss without us getting one.
Another way to put it: no matter how many wins we pick up at this point Houston MUST lose another game for us to move ahead. We could go 6-0 to finish. If they don’t lose again we’re still behind because when all 82 games are finished the two teams will be tied and Portland loses the tiebreaker with them.
The “division vs. conference” thing in his elaboration must mean “record versus conference”. No division-involved tiebreaker exists between teams from different divisions UNLESS one of those teams is a division winner and one isn’t, in which case the division winner gets the nod.
Just in case all of this is confusing too, I’m going to post all the possibilities with Houston right beneath this.
—Dave
Possibilities with Houston
If Houston finishes with a better record than Portland:
—Houston will get a higher seed and have homecourt advantage in any series between the two UNLESS…
—Portland wins their division and Houston does not win their division AND does not finish with the highest record among all non-division winners. In this case Portland would get a higher seed but Houston would still have homecourt advantage between the two if they met.
If Portland finishes with a better record than Houston:
—Read what we just wrote and reverse the names of the teams, (Portland gets a higher seed and homecourt between the two unless Houston wins the division and Portland does not and isn’t the best record among the non-division winners. In the latter case Houston would get a higher seed but not homecourt between the two.)
In either of these eventualities tiebreakers do not apply.
If Portland and Houston finish with the same record…
…AND one of them wins their division while the other does not then the division winner gets the higher seed and homecourt between the two
…but NEITHER or BOTH of them win their respective divisions then Houston gets the higher seed and homecourt between the two by virtue of them having won the head-to-head battle between the two teams during the regular season. (Note that the conference-division thing doesn’t matter here anyway. Houston beat us head-to-head and that’s it. Winning the division is the only thing that could change that.)
—Dave
Also note
that the semi-confusing “higher seed but not homecourt” clause has nothing to do with tiebreakers at all. It’s the way the playoffs are seeded now. The top four seeds are always the three division winners plus the team with the best record among non-division winners. It couldn’t come into play the way the standings read this year but unless I put it in there somebody is going to offer the hypothetical correction. Feel free to ignore the UNLESS part if you just want to think of this year’s practicalities.
—Dave
I would side with most of you guys.
w/out Manu the spurs do look more appealing but I feel that our young Blazers are about to shock the world! Whoever we play it’s not going to be a cake-walk for them either.
on a side note: that ‘Rip City uprising’ slogan make me conjure up mental images of Canadian hockey riots for some reason. maybe not a bad thing.
The magic # is 0!!!
Duncan has been struggling too
If Duncan is only at 75% Aldridge can definitely match him. Beyond that, Nate just has to build a gameplan to stop Tony Parker which is no small task. However, only having to stop one guy as opposed to three plus their shooters makes a series against San Antonio very winable.
I am officially in the we want the Spurs in the first round camp. Even if they beat us, the team will get 6 or 7 (I don’t think the Spurs are strong enough to win in 5 or 6) games against the exact team you want to learn playoff basketball from.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
I would feel a lot better losing to the Spurs than the Rockets
We don’t want them to break the first round curse on us.
http://saboner.mybrute.com
I do not know who to root for
Hou or SA. I can see us doing well against either but which one would we be able to get by to the 2nd?
Hou will have added pressure as it will be trying to shake the 1st round jinx, but without TMac they might do it. On a side note it is kinda funny to see the battle for Houston between Jaynes and Canzano.
OTOH, SA is without Manu and yes they were 17-15 without him but this is the playoffs and he is what made them go in the playoffs as he was clutch in the 4th in close games. I mean Roger Mason in the playoffs with all that pressure and his 10 playoff games? I think it would be great TV with the seasoned grizzled vet Spurs vs the future young up and coming Blazers, one dynasty passing the other. Great storylines there people, Stern will make it happen.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
I think Portland matches up well w/ S.A.....
LMA has proven that he has the ability to match Tim Duncans production. If he plays like he has in the past month, San Antonio is in trouble. Parker and Roy will put up comperable stats, but with Manu out, I don’t know if I would count on the Spurs bench having any chance to outplay Trout and the Spanish Armada. Oden/Pryz will be the wild card. If they put up big numbers collectively, then Rip City will have a great chance for a first round upset.
I certainly think that the Blazers would have a better chance of stealing one on the road before the Spurs win one in the Garden.
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Jimi Hendrix
by philly420pdxhilo on Apr 7, 2009 3:10 AM PDT reply actions
blazers won in SA
If they get homecourt advantage, I certainly wouldn’t call it an upset to win the series.
When we beat the lakers in 6 games, that will be an upset.
If the Blazers get HCA, then they will be playing in the second round...
I really felt that Rip City had no chance of catching San Antonio when I posted the original, but that was before seeing how old Tim Duncan looked. He looks like he will never survive the wear and tear of the playoffs. With Duncan hurting, and Gino out, I think it would be very lucky if the Spurs go even .500 the rest of the season.
As for the Blazers,getting the experience of even one playoff series will advance the development of this crew by leaps and bounds. If they can get out of the second round, look out. It could be 1977 all over again.
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Jimi Hendrix
by philly420pdxhilo on Apr 10, 2009 2:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Like I said not too long ago
I’m just happy the Blazers aren’t matched up with Atlanta. All the rest of this stuff is too much to worry about. I’m taking this season one game at a time. The Memphis game is a must win.
How about SCENARIO, Bill?
I said one and done on the eve of the start of the season, and I'm sticking to it
If the Blazers would’ve gotten home-court, they might have had a chance. As it stands, no way. Sorry but that’s reality.
Blazer Fan
sigh. you are probably correct
and you probablyknow what the main reason is: weak Blazer defense.
if we play the Rockets the difference will be Battier and Artest and company playing better defense than us.
scouting won’t help us much. heck it didn’t help a few days ago when we got thumped by the Rockets.
sigh.
If you think education is expensive, try ignorance.
Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked.
"Sorry but that’s reality."
Opinion actually
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
Homecourt is a VERY REAL possibility
so you are prematurely defeatist, or declaring the rightness of your uninteresting preseason prediction (of course that was the projection for the preseason, by EVERYONE, for a 41-41 team) too early.
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!! And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
Call me crazy...
but I think slipping a spot or two might be to the Blazers advantage in the long run. Houston is a tough matchup, and they have the pyschological edge going in. Also, it’s hard to consider yourself an underdog and play loose in a 4/5 contest.
It might be more interesting to see them slip to 6, play San Antonio, and go in as solid underdogs, no pressure, playing loose, one game at a time.
this assumes SA stays ahead of Houston, which I wouldn't be on at this point
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
But you failed to mention
I don’t think Popoivch has played Duncan in the second game of back-to-backs this year. If he continues that practice, we have a great chance of beating them there, and they will have a good fight when they travel to Golden State for that second game of a back-to-back.
So it’s not just Ginobli’s absence to consider, but Ginobli and Duncan. San Antonio without both players is not a playoff team at all. Parker, Mason, Bowen, Thomas and X as starters? That’s a bad NBA starting lineup.
Interesting Night tonight
Obviously, it starts with us taking care of business. Assuming we do, then there are some other games that could affect us:
Hornets @ Heat: Most people (including me) seem to think New Orleans is fairly well locked into the #6 spot – not likely to fall past Utah/Dallas, and not likely to pass Portland. A loss in Miami gives us a bit of a buffer
Spurs @ Thunder: Many are chalking this up as an easy win for S.A., but a closer look reveals that OKC has had their number, beating them twice in March. Hope for at least a tough game and big minutes for Duncan, Parker, and the co. A Thunder win significantly improves our chances of catching the Spurs.
Magic @ Rockets: Any chance we have of passing the Rockets now is probably going to require Houston to lose two more games. Tonight is the best candidate
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
actually @ Dallas is a good bet for a Houston L also, unless that game doesn't matter for Dallas' seeding
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!! And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
I don't really want either of them
without homecourt advantage.
Neither is at full strength. Both have enough talent and experience to bump us off. We have a chance against either, of course, but it’s not large. Houston maybe has the better physical matchup. But the Rockets have a history of bowing out in the first round every year. The Spurs have a history of winning the championship every odd-numbered year. That winning experience can’t be discounted. Do you want to have to contend with Yao Ming every night while Artest and Battier choke you down or do you want to contend with Tim Duncan while Tony Parker carves you up? We haven’t proved we can consistently handle any of it. It would make me feel better if we had ANY kind of track record on the road against good teams but we’ll end up having won…what? At most one game against a playoff-caliber opponent on the road all season, and that’s if we win on Wednesday? It’s easy to say, “All we have to do is win all of our home games and steal one on the road” but if you ask which team in either matchup is more likely to win a game in their opponent’s building I’d go with Houston or San Antonio over Portland.
You’re going to have to find reasons for hope with either matchup. They’ll be different reasons depending on the opponent, but from Portland’s point of view you’d probably have to find them roughly equally.
—Dave
Dave
We beat Houston on a miracle shot at home in a game we probably “should” have lost. Absent that, we have no history of shoeing ANYTHING against the Rockets at all.
We beat San Antonio once on a shot that SA probably should have made, but didn’t, but then CREAMED the Spurs later in the season, which is probably a better indication of where the Spurs are playing right now, with their injuries and age.
I’ll take the Spurs every day of the week over San Antonio…they AREN’T even close.
Of course I would rather ALSO have homecourt advantage if given the choice, but that wasn’t the question.
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!! And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
the Spurs every day of the week over San Antonio…they AREN’T even close.
Actually, the Spurs and San Antonio are extremely close.
"Well, Travis just showed us that we can go to Travis Outlaw." - Nate McMillan
by 12sharks on Apr 7, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
History so far:
vs. Houston
1 pt win at home, 4 pt loss in Houston, 14 point loss in Houston
vs. San Antonio
1 pt win at home, 15 point loss in San Antonio, 18 point win at home
We don’t have a return game at home versus the Rockets so we’ll never know what that fourth game would have looked like with them. It’s quite possible we could have beat them. We will know what the fourth game versus San Antonio will be on Wednesday night. In any case, right now they are similar enough considering the Blazers’ propensity to win at home and lose on the road.
—Dave
Also keep in mind
the two teams’ histories.
Traditionally you don’t see the full San Antonio arsenal until the playoffs, then they destroy you. You do see Houston’s full strength during the regular season and then they lose in the playoffs. It may be different this year as San Antonio is probably on their way down while Houston is holding strong, but some of that holdover will still be there. Figure the Spurs are a little better than you’ve seen while the Rockets are about the same.
—Dave
Thanks for your reply!
Bottom line is we are going to have to play really really well against either one. I was curious as to which suits us best but I agree its a pick your poison type of deal. In fact what I am realizing is regardless who we face, even if it isn’t a team from Tx, we will have a nice challenge to face and a chance for many players to learn their craft some more.
Greg looked overwhelmed by Ming on Sunday (so did Pryz) but he could do much better next time. Its easy to think that we would fare better against SA because the Houston match is so fresh but Duncan shouldn’t be underestimated, he has been dominating for much longer that Ming, especially in the playoffs. A big game at SA would give us another boost of confidence if we have to face them.
by QuebecBlzrFan on Apr 7, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
But the first Houston loss
wasn’t really that close, either. Portland was down 17 at halftime before making a couple late rallies to make the score look more respectable.
Point taken about not knowing the outcome, but I think Portland can play with SA. (We’ll see tomorrow) I don’t think they can play with Houston
And yes, I think the series is closer with both if we ahve homecourt.
Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!! And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!
I think even a perceived edge helps the Blazers in a Spurs matchup
The Blazers were able to blow out the Spurs and that could go a long way to help with the mental aspect of playing a good team. “We’ve beaten these guys soundly before, there’s no reason we can’t do that 4 more times….” Or something to that effect. The Rockets, on the other hand, might have the mental edge over this young team. Sure there was Roy’s miracle game winning shot, but that isn’t the same as thoroughly dismantling a team.
Of course, this could all change if the Blazers get eaten alive by the Spurs in a few days. Any mental edge would be long gone if they get shanked with a 20 point loss.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
I'm thinking its time to root for Houston to win out and grab the 2 seed... I'd much rather play Denver or SA
It would be great to grab that 4 seed, and sweeping the last 2 games on this road trip would be a good start.
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