FanPost

"Taking Care of Business" - 4/6 UPDATE (Keep Hope Alive edition)

CURRENT STANDINGS:

2. DENVER 52-26
3. SAN ANTONIO 49-27
4. HOUSTON 49-28
5. PORTLAND 48-28
6. NEW ORLEANS 47-29
7. UTAH 46-31
8. DALLAS 45-31

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

42-35

                                    * * *

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS:

2. SAN ANTONIO 55-27
3. DENVER 54-28
4. HOUSTON (tiebreak v POR) 53-29
5. PORTLAND 53-29
6. DALLAS 50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33
8. UTAH 48-34

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

46-36

 

SO FAR SO GOOD

It is still possible to take homecourt advantage away from the Rockets and/or San Antonio with a win vs. San Antonio.  Just handle your business boys, and the future looks rosy (especially if Popp rests some starters!!!)

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland win vs. San Antonio:

   

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, all else holds steady:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA/POR) 54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) 54-28
4. PORTLAND 54-28
5. HOUSTON 53-29
6. DALLAS 50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33
8. UTAH 48-34

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

46-36

 

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and all else holds steady:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR) 54-28
3. PORTLAND  54-28
4. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)  53-29
5. HOUSTON 53-29
6. DALLAS 50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33
8. UTAH 48-34

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

46-36

 

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and Houston wins out, too:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR) 54-28
3. HOUSTON (division winner)  54-28
4. PORTLAND   54-28
5. SAN ANTONIO 53-29
6. DALLAS 50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33
8. UTAH 48-34

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

46-36

 

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, loses one OTHER game, all else holds steady:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA) 54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) 54-28
4. HOUSTON (tiebreaker v. POR) 53-29
5. PORTLAND 53-29
6. DALLAS 50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33
8. UTAH 48-34

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

46-36

 

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, loses one OTHER game, and San Antonio also drops an OTHER game somewhere:

2. DENVER 54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO (TB over HOU) 53-29
4. HOUSTON (tiebreaker over POR) 53-29
5. PORTLAND 53-29
6. DALLAS 50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33
8. UTAH 48-34

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

46-36

 

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, loses one OTHER game, and San Antonio drops two OTHER game somewhere (plausible with the emotional blow of MANU out for the season?):

2. DENVER 54-28
3. HOUSTON (division winner) 53-29
4. PORTLAND 53-29
5. SAN ANTONIO 52-30
6. DALLAS 50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33
8. UTAH 48-34

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

46-36

 

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland loss vs. San Antonio:

   

(for Portland loss, all other expected results (see above)

 

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and all else holds steady:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA) 54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO 54-28
4. HOUSTON (tiebreaker v. POR)  53-29
5. PORTLAND 53-29
6. DALLAS 50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33
8. UTAH 48-34

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

46-36

 

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and Houston loses an unexpected game:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA) 54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO 54-28
4. PORTLAND  53-29
5. HOUSTON 52-30
6. DALLAS 50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33
8. UTAH 48-34

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

46-36

 

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and Houston wins out, too:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA) 54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO (wins TB v. HOU)  54-28
4. HOUSTON 54-28
5. PORTLAND 53-29
6. DALLAS 50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33
8. UTAH 48-34

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

46-36

 

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, but wins out, and San Antonio drops two OTHER games somewhere (plausible with the emotional blow of MANU out for the season?):

2. DENVER 54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO (wins TB v. HOU) 53-29
4. HOUSTON (wins TB v. POR) 53-29
5. PORTLAND 53-29
6. DALLAS 50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33
8. UTAH 48-34

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

46-36

 

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, loses one OTHER game, and San Antonio drops two OTHER games somewhere (plausible with the emotional blow of MANU out for the season?):

2. DENVER 54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) 53-29
4. HOUSTON 53-29
5. PORTLAND 52-30
6. DALLAS 50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33
8. UTAH 48-34

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

46-36

 

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, but wins out, and San Antonio drops THREE OTHER games somewhere (somewhat difficult to imagine, even WITH the emotional blow of MANU out for the season?):

2. DENVER 54-28
3. HOUSTON 53-29
4. SAN ANTONIO (TB v. POR) 52-30
5. PORTLAND 52-30
6. DALLAS 50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33
8. UTAH 48-34

 

OUT: PHOENIX

 

46-36

In other words, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Portland loses to SA, thus moving two losses behind them, and losing a tiebreaker, and still ends up anywhere other than the 5 seed.  Even if San Antonio were to lose THREE games to other teams, and I just don't see that happening if they beat Portland, they would still have the tiebreaker over Portland for the 4 seed. 

Given a loss to SA, the most plausible scenario that has Portland in the 4 seed is if Portland wins out and Houston loses TWO games, including one currently not projected for them, or Portland drops SA plus one, and Houston drops three games, including TWO not currently expected.  But, of course, in either of those last two scenarios, we have to face Houston in the first round.  Only winning in SA likely gets us anyone other than Houston in a matchup where we have homecourt advnatage.

 

RESULTS:

Portland, falls, but New Orleans drops an unexpected game, which is the best thing that happened this weekend, besides Portland clinching, which we knew they would anyway.  Portland can still move past Houston and secure Homecourt with a win vs. San Antonio and everything else holding form.

 

KEY REMAINING GAMES WHERE UNEXPECTED RESULTS COULD HELP THE BLAZERS LISTED BELOW

As I was responding to a post below, I realized that bolding key games where we DON'T WANT THE EXPECTED "TAKING CARE OF BUSINESS" TO HAPPEN might give us more games of interest, so I have bolded games for each team in the hunt where rooting for a "non-traditional" outcome should help the Blazers:

 

SAN ANTONIO

(current:  49-27)  (projected:  55-27) 

(2 seed)

  • Tue, Apr 7 at Oklahoma City W (lost to OKC already AT HOME)
  • Wed, Apr 8 Portland W  (lost TWICE to POR already, b2b for both teams, but Portland has a better record in those games and Popp might just help us out and rest guys)
  • Fri, Apr 10 Utah W
  • Sun, Apr 12 at Sacramento W
  • Mon, Apr 13 at Golden State W  (2d of back to back)
  • Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W

DENVER

(current:  52-26)  (projected:  54-28)

(3 seed)

  • Wed, Apr 8 Oklahoma City W
  • Thu, Apr 9 at LA Lakers L
  • Mon, Apr 13 Sacramento W
  • Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L

HOUSTON

(current:  49-28)  (projected:  53-29) 

(wins tiebreaker with POR, earning the 4 seed)

  • Tue, Apr 7 Orlando W (not sure why, except Orlando is good)
  • Thu, Apr 9 at Sacramento W
  • Fri, Apr 10 at Golden State W  (2d of back to back)
  • Mon, Apr 13 New Orleans W (lost to them once already)
  • Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L

PORTLAND

(current:  48-28)  (projected:  53-29)

(loses tiebreaker to HOU, meaning a likely 5 seed)

  • Tue, Apr 7 at Memphis W
  • Wed, Apr 8 at San Antonio L  (beat them TWICE already, b2b for both teams, but Portland has a better ercord in those games and Popp might just help us out and rest guys)
  • Fri, Apr 10 LA Lakers W
  • Sat, Apr 11 at LA Clippers W
  • Mon, Apr 13 Oklahoma City W
  • Wed, Apr 15 Denver W

 

DALLAS

(current:  46-31)  (projected:  50-32) 

(6 seed)

  • Wed, Apr 8 Utah W  (lost to them TWICE already)
  • Fri, Apr 10 New Orleans W  (lost to them TWICE already)
  • Sun, Apr 12 at New Orleans L
  • Mon, Apr 13 Minnesota W  (2d of back-to-back)
  • Wed, Apr 15 Houston W

NEW ORLEANS

(current:  47-29)  (projected:  49-33)

(7 seed)

  • Tue, Apr 7 at Miami L
  • Wed, Apr 8 Phoenix W  (2d of back-to-back)
  • Fri, Apr 10 at Dallas L  (beat them TWICE already)
  • Sun, Apr 12 Dallas W
  • Mon, Apr 13 at Houston L
  • Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L (possible W if Spurs rest guys?)

UTAH

(current:  47-30)  (projected:  49-33) 

(8 seed)

  • Wed, Apr 8 at Dallas L  (beat them TWICE already)
  • Fri, Apr 10 at San Antonio L
  • Sat, Apr 11 Golden State W  (2d of back-to-back)
  • Mon, Apr 13 LA Clippers W
  • Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L (possible W if Lakers rest guys?)

PHOENIX

(current:  42-35)  (projected:  46-36) 

(OUT)

  • Wed, Apr 8 at New Orleans L  (2d of back-to-back for NO)
  • Fri, Apr 10 at Memphis W
  • Sat, Apr 11 at Minnesota W  (2d of back-to-back)
  • Mon, Apr 13 Memphis W
  • Wed, Apr 15 Golden State W

Recent events and the upcoming schedule have really pushed Utah, Dallas and NO into a tier behind Houston and Portland.  Phoenix is just a spoiler at this point, unless Dallas or Utah continues to falter and Phoenix wins out.

What that means is, we continue to hope for those teams to get wins against Houston, San Antonio or Denver to help us out, but other than that, it really becomes Portland taking care of ITS business to earn homecourt...beat San Antonio, and you really turn the race around, because you have the tiebreaker, so it's really a FOUR game swing depending on whether we win at San Antonio.  How so?  If we win, we get a tiebreaker on them, plus a game gained in the standings.  If we lose, we fall a game behind in the standings and lose the tiebreaker, too.  So, it's the difference between being TWO up or TWO down...no pressure though, Portland, no pressure.

 

Putting that aside, we can still: 

 

BEAT SAN ANTONIO!!!

Of Course, God helps those who help themselves, so the best thing Portland could do for itself would be to steal one of the Texas games, and hold serve on the other "should wins," as Portland would gain a game on San Antonio with a win, and would earn the tiebreaker based on the head-to head records if Houston passes San Antonio and wins the division. 

 

ROOT FOR ADDED LOSSES FOR DENVER, HOUSTON OR SAN ANTONIO IN BOLDED GAMES ABOVE, AND/OR PRAY FOR MORE LIGHTNING TO STRIKE THE TEAMS ABOVE US WITH UPSET LOSSES.

 

BOTTOM LINE:

 

What we as Blazers fans should be rooting for (and that's really the question here, right?) in any game between playoff contenders in the West is that the third tier guys (or spoiler Phoenix) win a couple against the first tier guys, specifically, San Antonio, Denver, and Houston.  Other than that, everything going to plan means we get a four or five seed, and us beating San Antonio likely gives us homecourt in the first Round.

 

All clear now?

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