UPDATED: Analysis of Wafer Missing Game 6

I hesitated to post this because I want to make sure I'm not double posting the fanshot here, but I wanted to take a little deeper look at what Wafer's absence might mean and hear what you all are thinking.

First, let's look at what Vanilla Wafer has done in this series:

Mins: 18.2

FG Att: 9.0/game

FG: 42.2%

3PT FGA: 1.8/game

3 PT FG%: 44.4%

FTA: 2.4/game

FT %: 91.7% (11-12 total)

and then about 1 assist, 1 rebound, and 1 turnover. The guy has been a scorer, and lots of it is coming in the paint. This guy has shot and made more free throws in this series than every player on the Blazers except Roy and Aldridge, and he's not far behind Aldridge (12-18). I don't have to tell you that free throws require a foul to be called, and we all know we could use a few less foul calls in Houston (not a complaint, just a fact). 

The guy has also hurt us from distance, especially in game 4 when he went 3-3 and helped Houston climb out of that early 13-6 deficit. His energy and explosiveness makes his an obvious fan favorite that really drives their second unit. No other player off of their bench really compares.

Now, let's look at the possible adjustments Adelman will make:

Note: We may get some clues over at TheDreamShake posting on this.

1. Give Wafer's minutes to Brent Barry

It seems likely that Barry will get some time tonight. This is a guy who went from ~20 mins/game in Nov and Jan to ~10 mins in Feb and Mar. That change largely coincided with when Wafer stepped forward (went from ~13 in Nov to ~20 in Feb-Apr).

Barry is highly unlikely to replace Wafer's points. His best month had him averaging ~20 mins and 5.8 pts. He's scored in double figures exactly 3 times this season. It's on par with Travis pulling down 10 boards.

He is a better passer and rebounder than Wafer though. He will not get to the line. This guy shot 20(!!) free throws the entire season. Wafer, remember, shot 12 in this *series*.

Barry scares me because he is a vet that has ice in his veins from distance and plays smart. He also represents a clear target to attack when we are on offense. I like any of our guys chances against him.

2. Increased minutes for Battier and/or Artest

Battier is already averaging 40 mins/game and Artesty is at 37. It's not like there is a ton of time left to allocate there. Even so, I'd expect to see a little more Artest.

3. Go small with Lowry and Brooks at times

Lowry is a guy you want on the floor, but I'm not sure you can get away with this on defense.

4. Go big with more time for Landry and/or Hayes

Neither of these guys seem capable of really sliding to the 3, but who knows? This move would obviously require #2 to happen as well.

UPDATED: I did some more digging and found these gems:

- Wafer is last on the Rockets for +/- in the playoffs at -13

- However, he is part of the second-most effective 5 man combo for the Rockets in the playoffs

- Wafer's playoff PER is 18.45. That's higher than players like Andre Iguodala, Steve Blake, Aaron Brooks, Andre Miller, Lamarcus Aldridge, Ben Gordon and Rudy Fernandez.

There may be some other strategies that Adelman could employ, but none are obvious to me. What do you think he will do? How much will it impact the game?