Oden, Rudy, Nic: three of the top seven most productive rookies in the NBA according to Berri

According to Dave Berri's win score formula, three of the top seven rookies were Blazers.

Of the rookies who logged 1,000 minutes, Kevin Love, Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, Anthony Randolph, Nicolas Batum, Mario Chalmers, and Rose were all better than the average NBA player.

Rose was the worst of that group (average in just about every category). Oden and Rudy were second and third best behind K-Love.

This was an unusually productive class - most rookies struggle to reach even half of an average player's productivity.

Durant was well below average last year (but well above average this year).

almost 3 years ago KP Corleone 9 comments 2 recs |

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wait a sec

Are you saying that Rose is the worst of that group? How can that be when he’s gonna win ROY?

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Nobody even tries to hide this any longer. The only way they could make it more blatant is if they hung a huge Goldman Sachs logo on the Capitol dome and then branded it onto the foreheads of leading members of Congress and executive branch officials.

by vavoom on Apr 30, 2009 10:20 AM PDT reply actions

Because media voters are mostly stupid.

See: Derek Jeter Gold Gloves.

Jose Lopez roxxorz my boxxorz.
51!

by joof on Apr 30, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Have you seen his contract?

Guy probably has diamond gloves too

by Zaig on Apr 30, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions

Very interesting.

Goodbye Deke. The NBA will miss Mt. Mutombo.

by prezofdeath on Apr 30, 2009 10:23 AM PDT reply actions

Win Score

1. Calling Rose “slightly above average” isn’t much of an insult. If I read that correctly, he’s being compared to all PGs, not just rookie PGs. In other words, he’s a rookie who is already above average at his position.

2. Dunno how I feel about win score. I doubt a team with Chalmers, Fernandez, Batum, Love and Lopez would win that many games, despite all being “above average” players.

by Zaig on Apr 30, 2009 10:31 AM PDT reply actions

It's context driven

The theory is that five average players would win about 41 games. I think you’re probably right that those five would be a worse team than that.

One of the big criticisms of win score is that it doesn’t take usage rate into account. So everyone you listed (except maybe Lopez) looks better under the win score analysis than under a more popular measure like PER, because they don’t take all that many shots. If they played together, and were forced to shoot more, they likely wouldn’t look as good.

Likewise, Rose suffers under the win score analysis because he took more shots for the Bulls (and therefore, you would think, took more difficult shots and less open shots). And you’re right that saying he’s just above average as a rookie isn’t a big insult, in any event. Average, for a rookie, is pretty good.

It’s just one way of looking at the basketball world; clearly not a perfect way, but neither is anything else. And generally, this does help explain why some guys (Danny Granger, Rudy Gay, etc.) look good on paper but don’t generally add much in the W column.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Apr 30, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions

Word, they do have my favorite stat though

Points per shot taken.
This covers 2PFG, 3PFG, how often you get to the free throw line, etc. etc. etc.

by Zaig on Apr 30, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Ah, I now get a chance to knock Dave Berri's Wages of Wins model around a bit regarding Kevin Love.

Apparently unbeknownst to Berri, his Win Score metric doesn’t at all account for man-to-man defense and overvalues the importance of rebounds. Love, therefore, gets way too much credit for what he brings to the table — which is proficiency on the both the offensive and defensive glass — but isn’t docked for his inability to effectively guard interior players.

I, of course, believe that Brook Lopez should’ve won the 2008-2009 NBA Rookie of the Year Award. Without a doubt, Lopez is a much more efficient shooter and an all-around better defender — as well as a nearly equal ball handler and distributor of the rock — in comparison to Love.

Berri does somewhat redeem himself, however, as his metric takes Jerryd Bayless to the woodshed. I can’t hate on that whatsoever.

by AK1984 on Apr 30, 2009 2:09 PM PDT reply actions

Of course it doesn't account for D

Most stats don’t. It also overrates defensive rebounds by effectively giving the player who gets the rebound “credit” for the enhanced probability of a win resulting from the change of possession. The biggest factor in provoking the change of possession, of course, is defense, not the defensive rebound (which is certainly a factor, just not necessarily the most important).

But win score still has value, and it does distinguish between guys who might otherwise look similar based on PPG and even PER (for instance, Danny Granger or Rudy Gay are about average players based on win score).

My boy Bayless, unfortunately, suffers no matter the statistical prism through which he is viewed. The numbers don’t tell a good story any way you spin them.

I agree with you that Lopez was the best overall rookie.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Apr 30, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions