Center Foul Rates in our Playoff Series

by Blaz06Draft on Apr 30, 2009 7:46 AM PDT

I usually don't complain about the refs, but some statistics do raise some concerns about how the centers are being reffed.

Yao averaged 3.53 fouls per 36 minutes in the regular season. In the playoffs, it's been 2,88 per 36 minutes. So his foul rate is down by 18%.

For Pryz, its 3.91 in the regular season and 5.07 in the playoffs, for an increase of 30%.

Oden has had foul troubles all year. He's at 7.09 for the regular season and 10.29 for the playoffs. This is an increase in his foul rate of 45%.

If you average Pryz and Oden, they are fouling at a 38% greater rate than during the regular season.

So while Yao is fouling somewhat less, the Blazers are fouling way more. Accounting for Yao's drop and the Blazers' increase, relative to Yao, Pryz is up 58% and Oden is up 77%. If you average Pryz and Oden, since both play about half time, Pryz/Oden's foul rate is up 68% compared to Yao.

So either:

1) Yao is so much harder to defend that the Blazers foul him 38% more oftern than normal centers while playing with normal aggression,

2) the Blazers have upped their aggressiveness by 38%, or

3) the refs are calling fouls differently than in the regular season (despite the adage that playoff basketball is tougher).

My rough guess is that Yao does pose a more difficult challenge, but it's not 38% more fouls worth. More like 10% more fouls worth. And the Blazers probably are player tougher (but only playoff tougher). Again, I think this is in the 10% range. So the biggest portion (the other 18%), and almost as great as the other two effects combined, is the refs lowering their tolerance for fouls.

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This series is the hardest I've seen Przybilla and Oden work.

They’re giving it their all out there. (Ha ha, they’re, their and there in the same sentence! Okay, I’ll stop patting myself on the back for basic grammar now.) Przybilla is ending each game one tired man. Oden as well. To play that physical, that aggressive, I’m not surprised to see an increase in fouls on our big men.

So I’m going with option #2 above.

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by T Darkstar on Apr 30, 2009 7:52 AM PDT reply actions

agreed

Both Oden and Pryz dont really pose as much of an offensive threat either, which explains the decrease in fouls for Yao.

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by Philthyanimal on Apr 30, 2009 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions

Yes.

Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .

by Nick Van Excellent on Apr 30, 2009 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions

The consensus so far is # 2

I disagree……#3 is the closest

The “adage” is that the play is rougher and tougher in playoffs is true by and large

That being said even if Gregzilla is being 38% more aggresive, it wouldn’t result in 38% more fouls….I would think it should end up being a wash (guessing of course). Basically, the more aggresion should by canceled out by the “adage”, if you get what I am saying.

This doesn’t appear to be the case…..if this were the case, then it would appear that Joel Oden is actually being 76% more aggressive and I don’t really buy that at all

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by 92wastheyear on Apr 30, 2009 8:55 AM PDT reply actions

Additionally

for those of you that keep saying that officiating is not (and not going to) deciding this series, I would point out that both Nate and Rick disagree with you or else they wouldn’t have been willing to take a $25,000 hit to their wallets just to get a few more calls.

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by 92wastheyear on Apr 30, 2009 8:59 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

I can't understand why officiating wouldn't make a difference

It doesn’t mean we couldn’t have won, but it does mean that they might have changed the outcome. We don’t know, but Game 4 was a pretty clear case of officials changing a game. Whether they were good calls, consistent calls is debatable?

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by hobobob on Apr 30, 2009 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions

I know....it is frustrating to keep hearing that tired ol song

Of course the refs have made a significant impact on this series, especially games 3 and 4 and those are also the most likely games to have been decided by the actions of the refs (early fouls on both our centers changing the whole dynamic of our rotations) because of the closeness of the games.

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by 92wastheyear on Apr 30, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions

Points in the Paint

The average number of shots from close in would help put these numbers in perspective as well.

by colganc on Apr 30, 2009 9:05 AM PDT reply actions

In what way?

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by 92wastheyear on Apr 30, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions

In that the majority of defensive fouls occur in the paint.

So if one team’s getting there a whole lot more, the other’s liable to have more defensive fouls.

by Charon on Apr 30, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions

Ok....as I recall we beating them points in the paint-wise

in games 1 and 2 but still there was the foul discrepcency (game wasn’t close foul-wise as it looks due to Houston playing the foul game at the end). What does that indicate

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by 92wastheyear on Apr 30, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Matchup explains it best

First, when Yao is in the game he is always guarding either Oden or Pryzbilla. Neither player puts any pressure on him, so that alone would significantly reduce his fouls. Second, Yao handles the ball much much more than the average center. Thus Oden and Pryzbilla are spending more time as the “focus” of the defense, rather than coming away from the ball.

Of course, the Yao superstar facter is a huge reason why this “focus” on Pryz and Oden results in fouls. But the difference from the regular season is certainly explained more by the matchup.

by TPfor3 on Apr 30, 2009 9:32 AM PDT reply actions

I don't think points one or two really get to the heart of it.

1) Roy’s penetration, Yao’s moving screens, Yao’s reach around D all point to areas where Yao can get into trouble. The Blazers have been trying mightily to come up with scenarios in which Yao is likely to foul. To a large degree they’ve been successful. Yao has been committing the breach. However, these aren’t getting called. Yao has tons of trouble defending the way we’re playing him, and lots of opportunity to foul.

2) Yao actually hasn’t gotten to handle the ball that often with Pryz or Oden on him, and that’s simply not where the fouls are coming from. Both Pryz and Oden get fouls called when trying to deny Yao position. The ball’s usually somewhere on the perimeter. Even worse, in game 4, the ball was usually in the back court. The contact getting called simply did not get called in the regular season. There’s no correlation between fouls then and now, so the matchup can’t justify it.

At first thought, I thought matchups would explain the issue. But, if you look at the fouls being called and not being called, it’s simply not explicable in terms of matchups without including factors such as superstartdom. Unfortunately, that’s the only thing that seems to offer a reason for such mysteriousness.

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by hobobob on Apr 30, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions

It's not who has the ball

It’s where the focus is. On defense there is never any focus on Yao because he is always away from the ball. I agree that he DOES foul on drives, etc… but there isn’t focus being drawn to him as there would if he were guarding, say.. Lamarcus Aldridge.

On the other side, all of our defense is focused on stopping Yao- thus there is a ton of attention on Oden and Pryz.

The superstardom matters- but it’s no different now than in the regular season.

by TPfor3 on Apr 30, 2009 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions

It seems nearly fair that those numbers are so high, but not Yao's numbers

The first thing to consider is that your average is way off. Oden is not splitting time with Pryz. Oden’s getting around 10 minutes a game.

The fouls that keeping getting called on our centers are mysterious, vague and without reciprocation. They’re fouling Yao for sure, but those fouls aren’t called. So, it’s not necessarily the number of fouls that worry me, but the timing of them. It’s as if by wanting to set a tone, which is OK to do, the officials alter the game significantly for the Rockets. I don’t think this is intentional, but the refs hamstrung the Blazers by doing so. It hurt our rebounding and D.

On the other hand, Yao’s numbers are an utter disgrace to good officiating. That guy gets away with murder. I understand celebrity no-calls, but I don’t like it. It’s killing us. Roy gets the calls, but they’re still calling him. This is the point I think Nate wanted to make. The calls may not be wrong, but they’re certainly different for Houston than for Portland. And, it created a solid disparity in each team’s chances to win.

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by hobobob on Apr 30, 2009 9:35 AM PDT reply actions

Not significantly different than the regular season against the Rockets

The 3 games in the regular season for our starting and backup center:
Joel 5 fouls, Channing 4
Joel 3 fouls, Channing 3
Joel 4, Oden 4- in a combined 30 minutes

Whereas Yao had 9 fouls total in the 3 games.

I think it’s definitely the way the overall matchup is officiated, not any specific difference between playoffs and regular season.

by TPfor3 on Apr 30, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions

Different fouls, not differnt numbers

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by hobobob on Apr 30, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions

yes i was just about to look for this stat

foul numbers in head-to-head matchups are much more telling than season stats. . .

by SabasFan on Apr 30, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm getting realy tried of all this foul call stuff.

With the exception of the continuing phantom oden calls,
the fouls calls seem to be fail.

Yao is twice the inside offensive threat, then the blazer bigs, so naurally he gets more foul calls then the blazers do.
Thats the simple truth.

He also relies more on using his height to contest dribble penetration and does a reasonable job at avoiding contact. Where as joel tries to draw charging fouls;
which usually forces a foul to be called. Some go his way, some do not.

by MotoMan045 on Apr 30, 2009 12:46 PM PDT reply actions