Game 6 Preview: Blazers vs. Rockets
by Dave on Apr 30, 2009 12:54 AM PDT
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PrintI love this. This is playoff basketball.
You may recall that at the beginning of this series the previews spanned thirteen pages, including this nine-page monster detailing what the Blazers needed to do in order to be successful. The early games also necessitated extensive lists of thoughts and adjustments in previews. The length has dwindled game by game until now here we are at Game 6. These teams have taken shots from each other on the chin. They've both been ahead in games. They've both come back to win. They've both faltered and lost. We've seen incredible defense, incredible offense, rebounding dominance, turnovers, streaks...everything you could hope for from the playoffs.
Now the adjustments are all but done. Houston may have a couple left but the Blazers are pretty much set. These teams know each other. These teams know what they have to do in order to win. It's just a matter of which team is going to do it.
The game is no longer about tricks, surprises, and schemes. It's about heart, will, determination, execution. Both teams have winning game plans. Which one will pursue theirs better and force the opponent to falter?
The Blazers' approach remains basically the same. Rotate the centers in and out to keep them fresh. Keep Yao out of the lane as much as possible. Give help on the Houston stars when they're in scoring position then recover as fast as you can. Most importantly, rebound their misses. The boards are the key to control.
On the offensive end you keep multiple scorers on the floor at the same time. You use liberal doses of Fernandez and Outlaw along with your starters. You do not settle for jumpers without penetration first. You realize that getting extra points on the foul line and getting the Rockets in foul trouble are at least as valuable as hitting an outside shot. You push the tempo and try to create early offense. If that doesn't work you keep the ball moving. The Blazers did not play a lot of one-on-one isolation ball in Game 5 and it showed not only in point production but whistles. That needs to continue tonight. Soften them up with team ball and then let Brandon operate while they're distracted.
One thing needs to happen for the Blazers to have a chance in this game that hasn't always happened in this series even when the games have been close. The supporting players outside of Roy and Aldridge have to hit the shots they're capable of hitting. That in no way counters the assertion that the ball has to keep moving. You can't just dump the rock to Blake or Rudy and say, "Create something for us!" But if the Rockets are going to make any adjustment it'll be to play Roy and Aldridge even harder, figuring as the Blazers do that they'll make somebody else beat them. We've already seen considerable pressure against each. It wouldn't surprise me if the Rockets went to extremes tonight if they can't escape Portland the normal way. The other Blazers have to connect off of passes from the stars. They don't have to be perfect. They just have to make the Rockets pay. That's the only way our main scorers are going to get free enough to make a difference. Unless Roy and Aldridge can make a difference, we're done.
LaMarcus had a fantastic offensive game on Tuesday. Him continuing that streak might be the single biggest factor in Portland pulling out a win. But again you have to get everybody going and use LaMarcus in the flow of that offense. You can't just dump it in to him and say, "Carry us against the teeth of the defense."
When you think offense tonight think extra points: free throws, threes, and second-chance points. We need some of each. The Blazers made a living from the arc and on the offensive boards in the regular season. Their return would be most welcome.
You know the officiating isn't going to look exactly the same as it did in Game 5. Seriously, folks...complaining about this is going to be the same as the diehard Trekkies going to that new movie and complaining that it isn't as good as the original because Shatner isn't playing Kirk. You knew that already. If that's why you went you wasted ten bucks. That's on you, not them.
As far as the team goes, if you let the whistles take you out of your game you're done before you start. You control the officials, not the other way around. Repeat: You control the officials, not the other way around. If Joel goes down, Greg better step up. If Greg goes down then Channing better have the best game of his career. When you're sitting in that locker room pre-game you look around the room at eleven other guys, put your hands in the circle, and pledge to each other that officiating is not going to make you break stride tonight. No matter who it takes, no matter what it takes, you overcome it.
Summary: The Blazers have done exactly the job they set out to do defensively in this series. The problem is they have not been able to rebound and they have not scored enough. They must address both areas in order to win. They must be mentally and physically tough. They must play with emotion without letting it run away with them or spray in inappropriate directions.
You are going to see everything the Rockets have to give tonight. Keeping the game as close as the last two games in Houston would be a major success. The Blazers want to give themselves a chance to win it coming down the stretch.
A victory tonight is unlikely given how the series has gone. Houston has executed more consistently in pretty much every aspect of the game. It's hard to imagine them letting that go now that the series is within their grasp at home. But they're not likely to get much better than we've seen. If Portland comes out hard they can give the Rockets a run for sure. There's always hope and you never quit until that final horn has sounded. Anything you have to do, do. Believe you can win. Believe you WILL win. Then go out and play like it.
Check out the Houston ramp-up at TheDreamShake.
Jersey Contest playoff participants don't forget to enter your form.
Go Blazers!
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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Let's Go Blazers!!!
Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
http://www.myspace.com/y5k
Yao's fatigue
It is well documented that Yao has fatigue and stamina issues, and with the heavy amount of minutes hes played, and how hard he is having to work with Joel and Greg on him, I like our chances tomorrow. Yao has played 84 out of the 96 minutes in the last 2 games. If we can get Artest in foul trouble, and let Yao fatigue himself out of the game I will love our chances!
I got 6 years of playoff blue balls going on, and I'm ready to release. GO BLAZERS. ~Mortimer
Get Artest in foul trouble?
If history is any guide, this is exceedingly unlikely in this series, especially in Houston.
This is a great point -
One of the sports writers at O-live had a brief point about Yao complaining he wasn’t getting enough touches in the 4th quarter. Perhaps this is due to his own fatigue. There may even be an internal conflict between the high-energy, high-flying A. Brooks and the Great Wall of China, Yao. They have opposite energy spectrums.
I like Portland’s chances. I think we win if we can keep the Rockets FG% under 46% – book it.
by hotstuffdb22 on Apr 30, 2009 6:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Every time we move the ball, attempt the open shot, and rebound, we pull ahead
And every time we stand around and watch, and pass up the open look, we fall behind.
Here’s a formula to win Game 6: “Play beautiful!”
If the Blazers can play beautiful, fluid, team basketball, they will win.
If the Rockets force us into an ugly slugfest to be played at the stripe and between our ears, we will lose.
The Blazers are more talented. They should win this series. But they can only win if they play their game.
I agree...
They just have to play the way we know they can play. Move the ball, grab rebounds, tire out the defense of the Rockets and don’t force any shots. You can do it Blazers!!!
been saying it all series...
more movement, less high pick isolation
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
Fast break please
And involve Oden in the pick and roll game.
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
That would require Sergio playing
I got 6 years of playoff blue balls going on, and I'm ready to release. GO BLAZERS. ~Mortimer
by Philthyanimal on Apr 30, 2009 1:36 AM PDT up reply actions
The next time Sergio passes to Oden on the roll
It will be the first. He always passes out to a shooter (that is an exaggeration of course, but not by much). Sergio is also too squirrelly for ol’ Oden’s picks, and Sergio never runs off the pick good enough or moves around too much for Oden to set a good screen.
Roy and Oden in the pick and roll can be gold, and should be a force in the future. Only Roy can get two defenders to commit to him hard.
Ohhhh man, we are due for a good game in Houston, dammit. I daresay that if we play poorly in game 6, we stand a chance of losing the series. If we lose the series, perhaps there goes our championship hopes!!
We’ve played like crap in Houston this series, and still almost won. If we have a 08-09 Blazers type game, we can do it. Then we go back home, Yao realizes he has adopted McGrady’s gypsy no-first-round-victory curse, and accepts his fate.
Me? I’m rooting for the Blazers. That’s not because I’m a homer though, I’d be rooting for the Blazers even if I hated the Blazers.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on Apr 30, 2009 2:28 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You obviously hate Spanish people.
Sergio is perfect and should be playing at least 40 minutes a game.
When I came here (in 2004), guys like Nick (Van Exel) and Damon, they were a breath of fresh air for me,'' Przybilla
by Nick Van Excellent on Apr 30, 2009 3:54 AM PDT up reply actions
He can get Channing any shot he wants
But that is a bad thing.
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
by Sabonis4Ever on Apr 30, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed But.....
what happened to that nifty Rudy to Greg connection that was rolling toward the end of the regular season?….I would like to see a return of that too. It was a true Pick and Roll with Rudy sending a bullet pass around his man into Greg on the baseline side of the pick…
I would like to see it too
Rudy is a great passer and he would do well (and has done well) with big men who roll to the basket AND have the hands to catch one of his passes. Oden and LMA fit the bill, but LMA always wants to pop.
Maybe Nate thinks it’s too risky in a game like this, where every possession matters, but I’d like to see more Rudy/Oden action as well… certainly over Sergio/Oden.
Mortimer
That works against the OKC defense
but probably not as well facing playoff-caliber defense
The Rockets have probably scouted that wrap-around play and have applied the antidote
Sergio and Oden tried a pick and roll couple games back, but Oden wasn't ready for the pass
Or was that Rudy? I forget. Maybe it was Rudy and the ball basically bounced in front of Oden and went out of bounds.
that was Rudy
and it was Oden’s fault.
by LicketyBrindle on Apr 30, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
I really want to watch this game.
I will be at work and don’t know if I will have access to internet. Hope I can get off early enough or before halftime.
I believe. Go Blazers!
Nate's test
All things being equal, it is now a mental game. How well has Coach prepared his players? Can he adjust and pull the right strings as the game progresses?
And, of course, do the players execute to their ability?
I thought the rockets were lucky to not lose BOTH games in Houston. Portland missed a big opportunity, then did it again. Fortunately, so did Houston. I think the Blazers will beat Houston if they play hard and play smart.
I’m looking for a few clues to see if the team has the right corrections.
- does Rudy treat possessions and passes with more respect?
- does Greg get his feet set outside the circle and pick up that charging foul?
- does LMA get plays that set him up to attack the rim instead of one-on-one isos?
- does Nate exploit the importance of getting Yao in foul trouble and use the pick-and-roll to force him to move, open up the inside for dunks and rebounds, and force the issue with hard dunks, even if it means 3 or 4 blocks.
-does GregZilla play smart defense and keep hands off up top, no reach fouls, and don’t get suckered into “position” fouls by Yao.
-Rudy, Travis and Blake need to hit near 50% on threes, but need to open up that half=step of space by some up-fakes and quick moves to the hoop.
-did I mention attacking the rim? Don’t settle [Travis, LMA, Frye].
-can they get quality shots in crunch time?
I think the Blazers have more talent and I’ll take that over home court. Yao will make or break the rockets – the Blazers have more weapons. The Blazers have been getting better and better every game. Greg Oden has been getting better every game. LMA. Rudy, Travis. If the progression continues Blazers will win. It will take the Blazers faltering for Houston to win. I believe that they have shown this year that they are tough in the clutch and capable of beating top-quality opponents in critical games. Seems to me that the jitters are long gone and there is not a doubt in the Blazers minds that they can play with, and beat that team.
Greg Oden is the Blazer’s Edge.
Gotta disagree with one point....
Rudy is one of hte players who truly DOES treat each and every possession with respect. That’s not to say there are no turnovers obvioucly, but a turnover that comes from movement and passing is not a problem. A turnover that results from standing around….that IS a problem. Rudy is one of the few Blazers that will continually move without the ball….the Blazers need more of that.
Just my 2 cents….
by antediluvian on Apr 30, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Just a couple of times...
in that last game he got a little loose and careless and made a bad pass or two. I agree that his movement is key (boy do his opponents hate that he makes them look bad – hence so many elbows, shoves and hard fouls this year – he’s a rookie making the vets look bad, and I love it!). Yes, some passes will get stolen and the movement creates more opportunities for errors, but, RUDY! has just gotten sloppy and lazy for a couple of brief moments, and I seem to remember a dunk off it last game and Nate scowling and biting his lips after an unforced errant pass in a prior game. RUDY! is too good at passing to make weak passes due to weak focus.
What I want to see is a focus and intensity that mirrors the look of determination and concentration that Jordan showed when every possession mattered.
In these next two games they can’t waste possessions or free throws.
Greg Oden is the Blazer’s Edge!
I haven't felt very confident in the Blazers in past years in the playoffs. This is a team that I feel confident can
win any game they play, they are just so talented. If they give 100 and lose I’ll be happy all summer.
Internet Link?
Does anyone know of a link on the internet to watch the game.
Another excellent post Dave. I’ll miss reading them when the season is finally over which is still weeks away!!! Go Blazers!
GO BLAZERS! RIP CITY PRIDE.
I'm on your bandwagon. Eating your nachos.
Good post Dave
My key to the game is the team that scores the most points will most likely win the game. I hope the Blazers score the most points.
Tom...I recently did a statistical analysis
whos results may suprising to some…but completely validates what you say. I found that, not just in this series mind you, but in the entire playoffs, the team who ended the game with the most points, won 100% the time. I know some of you aren’t into these advanced stats but this is too significant to ignore. Nate should try to factor this into his gameplan
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Apr 30, 2009 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
yeah Sorry
here you are
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Apr 30, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Uprise!
ROYBOT! L-TRAIN! GREG ATTACK! GREGZILLA! VANILLA GORILLA! RUDY RUDY RUDY TRIPLE TRIPLE TRIPLE! SUPATROUT! BATUMSHAKALAKA! SPANISH INQUISITION/ARMADA/CONNECTION! LIEUTENANT STEVE! B-REX! SHAV! RUFFIN MUFFIN! NATE!
All invading Houston tonight. How is that for detailed pre-game analysis?
by Norsktroll on Apr 30, 2009 4:32 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Lieutenant Steve
And no Sarge Nate?
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
by Sabonis4Ever on Apr 30, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Ebb and flo
Portland has done a good job responding to the rockets after they make a little run but both games they lost in Houston Portland was a little short in there response at the end of the game. Good Basketball teams score down the stretch the final 4 minutes of the game, they do what it takes to be at the freethrow line.
I wonder if the seed has been planted that Houston has blown its chance so many times in the past thats its just the natural order of things. This is a must win for the rockets if they lose the game tonight saturdays game will be an after thought.
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
His stare became blank. It was apparent he was back in that place, on the Rose Garden's logo, picking up Aaron Brooks as the crowd nervously roared.
Speed: What do you do? What do you do?
My $0.02:
When remembering the success of the game 5, I’m reminded of the speed of play. I know that we’ve had reports of Nate begging and pleading with his guards to push the ball up the floor.
For all of Brandon’s glory, the guy is entirely incapable of doing more than jogging up the floor even on a fast break. It’s just not in him.
Blake likes to roll the ball up the floor to beat the 20 second rule.
What I remember about Game 5 is Outlaw—of all people!—pushing the ball up the floor on the rebound. Of Rudy sprinting up the floor a couple of times with the ball. And Sergio—of all people getting some play!!—pushing the ball up the floor.
I wish I had DVRed all the games so I could look, but my guess is that if one did a +/- analysis on that pace, you’d find us well ahead. I’m not talking about fast-breaks, which would be welcome. And I’m not talking about beating the 20 second clock (which is also welcome). Rather, I’m speaking to those moments when Outlaw, Rudy, Sergio, or someone else pushes the ball up the floor sufficient to put reduce the time the defense gets to set. I seem to recall a lot of those buckets.
I submit that the accolades that Rudy, Travis, and Sergio all received for play in Game 5—the “intangibles”—resulted partly from that pace of play. Not to mention how much better LMA plays when he races ahead of that ball. Almost always good things happen.
(I want to say I saw Rudy refuse to give the ball to Brandon one time in order to race up the court.)
I love, love, love, LOVE B-Roy mid-to late offensive but I’m beginning to really hate seeing him bring the ball up the court. I want to see some guys run.
I know the guys are tired… but in the first quarter, that’s what I’m going to be looking for: how fast is that ball getting up the court.
Buck Williams for the hall of fame
I think I might agree with you.
The pace seemed to mess the Rockets up a bit at the end, I think Adelman even mentioned it in his postgame remarks. Considering that Yao has been playing way too many minutes in the past couple games, it would be nice if the Blazers could take advantage of their youth for once.
I LOVE seeing Rudy make guys chase him around. That has got to annoy the hell out of Battier. Hopefully we can see Rudy play for a solid 30 minutes tonight.
On another note, Ron Artest is losing his mind. He thinks Roy is the best player in the world besides his friend Mike from Queensbridge . If the Blazers build any sort of lead in this game I wouldn’t be surprised to see Artest lose it.
When I came here (in 2004), guys like Nick (Van Exel) and Damon, they were a breath of fresh air for me,'' Przybilla
by Nick Van Excellent on Apr 30, 2009 7:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed, PACE is imperative.
Not just offensively in terms of getting shots before Houston’s defense is set, but as a weapon to reduce Yao’s impact. Run him into the hardwood. The more tired he is the less impact he will have at the offensive end and on the boards.
Run, run, run…..
by upper left corner on Apr 30, 2009 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Man how am I supposed to function until game time?
Let’s go Blazers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Traaaviiiis Outlaw!=Leerooooy JENKINS of basketball.
tonight's officials
B. Salvatore, M. Callahan, J. Capers
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on Apr 30, 2009 8:01 AM PDT reply actions
Capers?
let’s hope nothing fishy happens. HAHA!! Get it!! Fishy! Because his name is Capers. And because the officials are a little shady. I’m a comedic genius.
by DrivetheLane on Apr 30, 2009 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on Apr 30, 2009 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Salvatore is terrible
You are right he does protect the stars, but Yao has never gotten that star treatment than say Dwight, Duncan, Lebron, Kobe, and others have gotten. With Salvatore I’m afraid that Yao might get in to foul trouble because sometimes he is very questionable calling it down low. Then again, that goes both ways as I could see Oden and Pryzbilla in foul trouble all game. I just want the refs to let em play and often Salvatore takes the game into his own hands. Good luck Blazers, been a good series so far
by clutchcitywillreturn on Apr 30, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Oden and Pryzbilla in foul trouble all game
You’ll know the oven timer has popped up and the Blazer’s game/season is a fully-cooked turkey if Channing Frye has to take off his warmups at any time during game 6
(unless it’s in garbage time, with the Blazers leading by 25+ points)
I have a bad feeling about this game...
but nonetheless GO BLAZERS!
I Blazersedge daily, nightly and ever so rightly.
your bad feeling isnt about the game
its about the BDers that you pissed off.
I got 6 years of playoff blue balls going on, and I'm ready to release. GO BLAZERS. ~Mortimer
by Philthyanimal on Apr 30, 2009 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions
I wrote up a break-down of the game over at SBN La-La-Land:
Hell, I’ll just cut and paste it — it’s easy enough to skip…
The Lakers will probably know their 2nd Round opponent this evening, when the Portland Trailblazers visit the Houston Rockets for an all-important Game 6 of their series. The Blazers trail 3-2 and face elimination in this game, which will be shown on TNT and tips off at 6:30 Pacific Time.
As many, most, or all of you know, the Blazers are my “main team” in the NBA and I’ve probably seen something like 80 games by this point (catching the others on the radio). So, for what it’s worth, here’s one SuperFan’s view of what to look for tonight.
1. — First off, you as Laker fans SHOULD care who wins this game. Although very evenly matched against one another, the Lakers have had a comparatively easy time against the Rockets (sweeping the season series with them, 4-0), while splitting yet again with the Blazers, who have beaten the Lakers 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12 times in a row in Portland. There may be nobody capable of beating the Lakers in the Western Conference this year, but if one team can do it — and are confident enough to BELIEVE they can do it — the Blazers are that team. So you are rooting for the team in white jerseys, for sure.
2. — The name is Yao Ming. He is 7’6" tall. This is not some random number on a page that the team unilaterally proclaims him to be, he is really, truly 7-and-a-half feet tall. If Yao Ming has his way inside, the Rockets will win. If the Blazers can stop Yao Ming, the game is up for grabs. If Yao finishes the half with 15 or more points, look for a Rockets victory.
3. — No Yao Ming. The Rockets lost their backup Center in this series, with Dikembe Mutombo falling to a career-ending knee injury. Consequently, Yao’s minutes have escalated. In game 5, Yao played 40 minutes — which is a ton for a Center of any size, let alone one bigger than a tree and as heavy as Shaquille O’Neal… But 40 minutes on the floor means that there were 8 minutes in which he was OFF the floor, and the Rockets were forced to play without a true Center. The Blazers are a 2-Center team and this means a terrific inside mismatch for them; in game 5 the Blazers were +6 points in this short interval. Look for Greg Oden to be on the floor trying to score low. If he is successful, the Blazers’ chances are greatly increased.
4. — Greg Oden. Let’s talk about him. No, he’s not Sam Bowie. Yes, he is a human foul machine at this point in his career. He is raw but a fairly incredible physical specimen. He scores the ball with dunks and an unseemly but generally effective baby hook. He has his best games against teams with Power Forwards playing out of position at the Center spot. He gets stripped of the ball a lot and travels a lot — but he is also fairly unstoppable when he gets the ball low. IF he stays out of foul trouble and manages to play the minutes that Yao sits on the bench, it could be decisive. Watch for that.
5. — Blazers foul trouble. Specifically, the Centers, Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden. After a Game 1 catastrophe in which they tried to play Yao with Pryz going man-to-man and playing behind him in the conventional manner (Yao 9-for-9 shooting with 24 points at halftime), the Blazers moved to aggressively fronting Yao and trying to deny him the entry pass. This inevitably entails a great deal of contact and lots of whistles. When the Blazers lose, they complain about too many whistles. When the Rockets lose, they complain about not enough whistles. This is THE ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL QUESTION of this game: will the Blazers be allowed to front Yao aggressively with their regular Centers — on the road in Houston, with the fans going nuts about the contact? The tell here will be Channing Frye, the soft, weak, chickenshit jumpshooting Power Forward who plays the 5 when Przy and Oden are both out. Nate generally pulls his regular Centers if they get 2 fouls in the first half (sometimes Pryz gets 3). If you see Channing Frye on the floor at the Center position in the first half, you know the Blazers are in foul trouble and that something has gone wrong for them. In Game 5, Frye collected a DNP-CD — and the Blazers won. The flip side: if you DON’T see Channing Frye, that’s an indicator that things are going well for the Blazers.
6. — Point Guard play. The worst matchup for the Blazers is at the PG position, in which good ol’ steady, stable, slow Steve Blake has to cover former University of Oregon speedburner Aaron Brooks. Brooks has absolutely roasted the Blazers in more than one game, but was contained and contested nicely in Game 5, leading to lots of missed shots. If Brooks gets to the rack unimpeded, which is another way of saying: if the Blazers are sitting Przybilla due to foul trouble — watch out, because the Rockets will have their game-winning offense in place. If Brooks gets shut down on the scoring side again, huge advantage Blazers — because the McGradyless Rockets really don’t have a ton of scorers on the squad…
7. — Power Forward play. Argentine Luis Scola has taken the Blazers’ 6’11" PF LaMarcus Aldridge (LMA) to school in this series. Scola has capitalized on the doubleteams on Yao, while LMA was reduced to being an ineffective jumpshooter. In Game 5, LMA suddenly remembered the thing that made the Late-Season Blazers so much better than the Early-Season Blazers — he got low and did his thing, rebounding and scoring on short, high percentage shots. Scola is the marker for the Rockets’ offense — if he goes nuts, that means Houston is taking advantage of Portland’s overplaying of Yao. On the other hand, if LMA looks like an All Star, that means that Portland is clicking and Houston had better watch out for the upset.
8. — Half time score. If the Lakers are a 3rd Quarter team, the Blazers are a 4th Quarter team. Part of this relates to the way Nate substitutes in the first half, ultra-cautiously pulling people with 2 fouls. Part of this relates to the Blazers’ superstar, The Natural, Brandon Roy, who becomes a Point Guard in the last 6 minutes and who paces himself throughout the game and saves his energy for the final onslaught. When the Blazers lose, they are very often down by a substantial sum at halftime. Against the Rockets, the critical margin would seem to be 15, and the danger line would seem to be 10. If the Blazers are behind by single digits at the half, they have Houston about where they want them; if Houston has a big double digit lead, look out. The Blazers have squandered one significant 4th Quarter lead in this series, but they are money in the 4th Quarter. If they start the 4th tied, they will win this game — quote me.
I’m sure I’m overlooking something, but that’s the gist of it. Crazy Ron from Sactoe will take his share of shots, making some, missing others. Travis Outlaw of the Blazers will elevate and shoot, making some, missing others. Look for Nate to start Rudy Fernandez at the 3 (wiry defensive specialist Nic Batum has nobody to guard in this series) and Blazer 3 pointers will probably be the difference in the game — if they fall, Blazers win. If they clang out, Rockets win.
Rockets probably about a 55% favorite to win tonight, but with 2 losses in Houston by a total of 4 points, don’t think for a minute that the Blazers see this as an insurmountable task the way that Utah saw a visit to Staples…
Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...
by timbo on Apr 30, 2009 8:21 AM PDT reply actions 7 recs
Excellent write-up.....
…….although I think you are overly optimistic. I think the Zebras will not be our friends tonight.
by upper left corner on Apr 30, 2009 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions
nice
Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .
by Nick Van Excellent on Apr 30, 2009 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions
NIcely done..
I would add to the 3 pointers stat.. the Freethrow stat…. could be the difference maker. Your feelings on Frye are well documented, but I think Chickenshoot* might be a little harsh. Soft ..yes…chicken…I don’t see it. He just is not a banger..never will be.
Anyone skipping through this missed out. Nice job.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
Great write up...
One little nit. I don’t necessarily think PG is the worst matchup. After the first two games, I’d completely agree. But since then, Brooks just hasn’t done much damage, either from passing or scoring. He still runs around a lot, but Blake has more than held his own in the 3 games since. To me, the biggest mismatch has been Batum and whomever has been guarding him, because then can pretty much leave him to double Roy.
by antediluvian on Apr 30, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Way to scout the team for the enemy!
Kidding. Really good job.
"Aneurysm".
When Outlaw wins a game on a last-second shot, it’s called an "annthefaneurysm". QualityPie
So...
we start Rudy instead.
Oops….just did it again. :-)
by antediluvian on Apr 30, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I recced ya baby
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Apr 30, 2009 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Nah.
"Aneurysm".
When Outlaw wins a game on a last-second shot, it’s called an "annthefaneurysm". QualityPie
It sure doesn't feel like tonight's the end...
When I first thought of the question, I was thinking about Pryzbilla’s comments right before the series where he said he felt this team would go deeper than the 1st round. I don’t know if he’s a seer, but we’ll find out tonight.
I’ve never gotten my palms read before, but maybe a palm reader would help with this question.
by hotstuffdb22 on Apr 30, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Toeing the Company line
Dave, once again I have to take issue with one of the premises of your preview:
I give you credit for addressing the 800 lbs. gorilla, or perhaps it would be more accurate to say the three 200 lbs zebras, of tonight’s game. However, most of what you say is hack-kneed cliches we all heard from our middle-school coaches:
“You know the officiating isn’t going to look exactly the same as it did in Game 5. Seriously, folks…complaining about this is going to be the same as the diehard Trekkies going to that new movie and complaining that it isn’t as good as the original because Shatner isn’t playing Kirk. You knew that already. If that’s why you went you wasted ten bucks. That’s on you, not them.
As far as the team goes, if you let the whistles take you out of your game you’re done before you start. You control the officials, not the other way around. Repeat: You control the officials, not the other way around. If Joel goes down, Greg better step up. If Greg goes down then Channing better have the best game of his career. When you’re sitting in that locker room pre-game you look around the room at eleven other guys, put your hands in the circle, and pledge to each other that officiating is not going to make you break stride tonight. No matter who it takes, no matter what it takes, you overcome it."
On one level, what you are saying makes sense. The Refs are going to call the game the way they are going to call the game. You have to do whatever you can to overcome it, if you don’t, the season is over, period, end of discussion.
BUT, your pep talk borders on the absurd: “You control the officials, not the other way around. Repeat: You control the officials, not the other way around.” Ummmmmmm, no. No. NO. NOOOOOOO.
The Refs and the League control the whistles. Clearly, our guys have to try to play through it, but pretending that there isn’t a problem is naive in the extreme.
Over the years I have spent a heck of a lot more than $10 bucks on my tickets, paraphernalia, cable bill, etc., and NO, it is not “on me” that the officiating in the NBA is frequently, almost consistently, biased. It is clearly biased in favor of “stars.” It is probably, although difficult to “prove”, biased towards larger markets. Pretending that all fans and players can do is pretend that it isn’t is not helpful.
I predicted that the calls in Game 5 would favor the Blazers in order to extend the series and tamp down the discussion about the lopsided calls in games 1-4. I was right.
I predict that the Blazers will get hosed tonight. Unless they play extremely well, they have no chance. Yao vs Kobe. Houston vs LA. #4 market vs. #2 market, plus 1.2 billion Chinese.
NBA basketball isn’t just a game, it is an industry. David Stern is a master of marketing. When two teams are as closely matched as these two, you don’t have to put your thumb on the scale too much to have a pretty good chance of affecting the outcome.
I am not talking about directly dictating the outcome, I am suggesting, or hypothesizing, a subtle institutional bias that favors stars and larger markets. Most are willing to acknowledge that there is star bias, but one mention of a similar bias towards larger markets and one gets labelled as a conspiratorial nut in a tin foil hat.
Of coarse, I may be wrong, but I assure you I am not wearing a tin foil hat. This hypothesis bears discussion and more research into results over the years. If my hypothesis is correct, it should show up in a statistical analysis of playoff results of the past couple of decades.
Of coarse, I hope I am wrong and I hope the Blazers play so well that they cannot be denied. I will be rooting as loud as anyone tonight, but I have watched too many games over too many years to be very optimistic.
I will not toe the Company line. The bias in officiating will only be removed when enough fans complain about it loud enough that they can not be drowned out. Those who speak out get labeled whiners, but those who refuse to acknowledge the very real possibility of bias are sheep and David Stern is the shepard.
by upper left corner on Apr 30, 2009 8:25 AM PDT reply actions
Stern's comments to the Chinese media. . .
. . . made my jaw drop. I wish I had the direct quotes in front of me, but I do recall him basically assuring all of China that Yao would be in round 2. When asked about the remaining win over the Blazers, Stern replied: “Let’s call that a formality.”
WHAT??
That was a joke
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/4/28/857145/chinese-cry-foul-on-rocket-blazer
David Stern didn’t really say those things, it was just some blogger making a joke.
Dear Mr. Corner...
“Of coarse, I may be wrong, but I assure you I am not wearing a tin foil hat. "
There is the problem right there….. you need to get your Tinfoil hat like the rest of us.
RoadBlazer
I think you're right in that
the officials tonight will make it difficult to win. Of course we can overcome that but I think it will take a combination of a cold shooting Houston team and a hot shooting Blazer team.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
That has always been the case, and it always will be
As a road team in the NBA playoffs, just figure you’re down 5 points before you take the floor
Then, if you’re the small market franchise up in the NW going against the large TV market from L*A, the east coast (heck, just about anywhere else)? Add another 5 points to that deficit
Let’s say the large market team has a well-known superstar? Assume he won’t be fouling out and your players will be in foul trouble, pretty much from the opening tip
There’s really no use crying about it, either before, during or after the game/series/season. It is what it is and if you don’t like it, change your allegiance and root for L*A or the LeBrons.
But…IF the planets align (like winning the lottery and drafting Greg Oden?) and the Blazers shoot the lights out and play heads up ball for 48 minutes they COULD overcome all of this built-in adversity and win this game/series
If that happens, remind yourself that it was “against all the odds” listed above and the victory will be that much sweeter
(and yes, I’ve still got my “Us Against the World” T-shirt, from 1992)
It’s the NBA, where…the more things change, the more they stay the same
No home cookin' tonight for the Blazers
But what Dave says is truth. There are only a handful of truly awful calls in each game; let that be your margin of victory.
It isn't about the small number of lousy calls.....
It is about how foul trouble sets the tone of the game. If Pryz and Oden are on the bench, the Blazers are in trouble. If Brandon is being mugged and not getting to the line, the Blazers are in trouble. Non-calls are as important as calls. It is about setting the tone and dictating tempo.
by upper left corner on Apr 30, 2009 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions
so yellow section season tickets are SOLD OUT.
only the white and lexus club level are left… mhmmm upgrading i suppose.
this is gonna be HUGE, if we steal one in houston.. and were due for a steal.
"Awesome! Totally awesome! All right, Hamilton!"
300 levels are gone?
I got 6 years of playoff blue balls going on, and I'm ready to release. GO BLAZERS. ~Mortimer
by Philthyanimal on Apr 30, 2009 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions
yeap, got the call yesterday...
enless they were just trying to make me upgrade, i requested 4 red or tan levels and 2 yellow sections. but the guy was all we only got the White and the Lexus left..
"Awesome! Totally awesome! All right, Hamilton!"
damn
i guess i wont be able to change seats then.
I got 6 years of playoff blue balls going on, and I'm ready to release. GO BLAZERS. ~Mortimer
by Philthyanimal on Apr 30, 2009 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions
where are your seats at??
i didn’t renew them in time…. i was in section 308 (wanted to upgrade.. but was out of town for awhile)
"Awesome! Totally awesome! All right, Hamilton!"
Trending towards a win...
Rockets score 108 in Game 1, then down into the 80’s, and then 77 in Game 5. PDX has gotten the defensive side of the court figured out, I think. This game tonight will come down to continuing what is obvisously working on defense and executing on offense.
If Joel & Greg can stay out of fould trouble, if LMA can just do what comes instictively instead of over-thinking it, and if one other player (Blake? Rudy?) can help out BRoy and LMA on the scoring load then the Blazers will have a very good chance tonight.
Everyone knows Houston will come out of the gates and torch the nets and grab the rebounds early…but Portland just needs to weather that initial storm then settle into the grind-it-out game this will be. It will probably come down to the final 2-3 minutes and if PDX is leading or within a bucket or two you’ve got to like the chances of Houston freezing up and Portland pulling out a victory.
Go Blazers!!!
Yao's "Pissed Off" factor
After game 5, Yao was clearly PO’d and embarrassed. He didn’t get the touches he wanted and he’s been unable to impact games the way he wants to. . .When I see these emotions in a true superstar, it makes me think they are about to explode and drop a huge game on someone. . . .
. . . does Yao have that in him? Should we expect that anger/pride to translate to a big game tonight?
Certainly fatigue will offset some of that fire (he literally looks like he’s one fast break away from total collapse most of the time), but I’m interested in what people think of the “Pissed Off” Factor. . .
I think we'll see Yao have a huge first quarter
and then taper off. He’ll be fired up and play well, but the extended minutes he’s played will begin to drag on him. Plus we don;t have the extra day off that was available ealy in the series. If the Blazers can weather the initial storm, I think they’ll be in good shape.
by antediluvian on Apr 30, 2009 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Quater by Quarter Scoring Rockets vs Blazers
Game 1 Rockets T Blazers
1 34x 23
2 28x 21
3 23x 14
4 23 x 23
Game 2
1 26 28x
2 25 x 25
3 21x 19
4 31 35x
Game 3
1 21x 15
2 27x 22
3 18 22x
4 20 x 20
Game 4
1 30x 22
2 20 22x
3 14 26x
4 25x 18
Game 5
1 26 29x
2 17 21x
3 19x 14
4 15 24x
Total Scores
= 463 447
Quarters Won
Result= 9 3 8
Average margin of victory 3.2 points with the scales starting to tip in our favor.
I really think this is a key factor.
Portland needs to start the game strong. In both of the previous games in Houston, the Blazers were lethargic in the first quarter and had to play catch up the rest of the way. Portland needs dribble penetration early and often tonight. We need Roy and Blake to exploit any openings or paths to the hoop that the Rockets give them. Roy especially needs to be able to do his thing and draw the defenders to him. Then he needs to find open shooters, and those men need to HIT OPEN SHOTS! If Portland can’t make open looks and 3 pointers tonight, there may not be much hope for a game 7.
Yes! Yes! In the face!
Yeah
The Blazers’ first-quarter offense in the losses has barely looked like basketball. That’s a big part of why they have gotten behind.
—Dave
DAVE - DEFENSIVE ROTATION?
I have noticed during a lot of games that we are very slow on the defensive rotation and switch way too easily in the front court. I understand that we are putting focus on Yao (rightfully so) and that is a big explanation for the middle. The front court seems to be a big issue with screens that rotate blake off of Brooks and then usually LA switches. Scola then is in a great position to get his favorite shot from the corner of the box. What can the Blazers do to prevent this?
#10 Pryzbilla the Vanilla Gorilla
Pray
That either Scola misses or LaMarcus finds some extra juice in his recovery step.
Thus far this has been the price the Blazers have paid for limiting Yao and preventing Brooks from going crazy. If those are the only two choices the Blazers are making the right one. Scola had an amazing first quarter Tuesday night and the Blazers still finished the period ahead.
I don’t think the Blazers change too much defensively tonight. This game is going to be won or lost for them on the glass, being aggressive on offense, and hitting open shots.
—Dave
Agreed
and not getting down during the Rocket “runs”
AGREED! Let Scola shoot
He lit it up in game 5, but it wasn’t enough. Stay focused on containing Yao and keeping Battier off the 3-pt line. Let scola try to hit 55%+ again.
It wasn't enough because Coach Sleepy took him out for extended minutes
Adelman is a bonehead at times and it really, REALLY makes Rockets fans angry
by UHoustonFan on Apr 30, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
ya know
i was telling my wife I noticed something interesting (I might have been imagining it). It seemed that in game 5 part of what made the defense on Yao a bit more effective was that when the bal was entered into the post from the wing…..Steve was showing double on the pass. Once the ball was caught by Yao (if they didn’t give up on it), Steve would take a couple of harrasing stabs at the steal and then retreat to his man. This seems to do two things….slowed down Yao’s move enough to let Gregzilla be more effective or allowed for a real double to get down and maybe force him to pass. It looked real good when i saw it
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Apr 30, 2009 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
They move to help
when he puts the ball on the floor. He gets tunnel vision and he’s basically committed then so the help can be effective. The problem with going before that is that he’s so darn tall he sees the floor right over you and can zip the pass right over your head.
The most successful strategy so far has been forcing him down along the baseline to receive the pass then coming with an extra man on the dribble. The Blazers front him to deny the pass into the middle. The Blazers will concede his baseline hook or turn-around without doubling at all, as this is among his weaker shots so far in the series. Any time they let him get inside, shoot from an angle, or dribble without helping on him has been disaster for Portland though.
—Dave
Yes...that is exactly what I was seeing
thanks for the confirmation
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Apr 30, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Yup, Yao does not pass
Once he decides he’s going to shoot his little hook shot. Which is usually good for him because he makes it but if well defended….
Proud member of Duck nation!
enjoy this, portland fans
von wafer – out for game six:
http://my.nba.com/thread.jspa?threadID=5700036279&#msg5700501785
go rockets!
WOW --- however, Houston at Home with a player missing might be the recipe for xtra motivation!!
by hotstuffdb22 on Apr 30, 2009 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions
maybe.
i guess barry will get wafer’s minutes. i could see him going off for a few threes, but we’ll (rox) miss wafer’s athleticism.
Have heard anything about the flu
having any effect on the anticipated crowd? (see below)
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Apr 30, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
That can be good or bad
Wafer has this nice (for us) tendency of taking bad shots….
Proud member of Duck nation!
artest is the key
he’s been quiet offensively this series. he’s the one who needs to step up and replace wafer’s point production. hopefully he won’t explicitly try to do that, and he can do it in the flow of the game. we’ll see. again, that’s the key to me tonight.
Except in game 2
Yeah he has but that’s Artest for ya. His defense is always solid but his offense is streaky…
Proud member of Duck nation!
Nice try Rockets fan...
Although I respect Artest for turning his former anger into energy for the game…
Proud member of Duck nation!
prZybilla
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
by Sabonis4Ever on Apr 30, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Additional food for thought
The Swine flu may have a real effect on the game…..we may see a partially empty arena due to people being genuinely scared to gather in large groups. I am curious about any effect we might see.
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
Good
I wouldn’t want that type of thing to be an issue. Good luck to ya
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Apr 30, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Although it is having an effect in SEA
They shut down some elementary school for a week…
Proud member of Duck nation!
Refs are
B. Salvatore, M. Callahan and J. Capers, looks like a good crew…
Proud member of Duck nation!
I've never liked the Salvatore-Portland mix
He looks like Steve Martin, but some of his calls aren’t that funny.
—Dave
Just hope no touch calls
Or limited ones, if Greg is going to get 5 fouls, make them real fouls…
Proud member of Duck nation!
Shouldn't that be at least one point of grading criteria for the refs?
When neither fan base wants to see a ref out there? I can only think of a few that are like this, but maybe they shouldn’t be reffing so many games? Or maybe they should be reffing more since it’s even…..
Yes! Yes! In the face!
I'm just glad we avoided Javie and Palmer
I’m sorry Violet, it’s not because you’re a woman, it’s because you’re a crappy ref…
Proud member of Duck nation!
Violet’s whistle has an automatic 5-second delay on it. It gives her time to look around, weigh the reaction of the crowd, scrutinize the expressions on the other refs’ faces, and then perhaps make a call.
I think she was the one who called the foul
At the end of the first Houston game that sent Yao to the line at the end of OT. Of course, then this happened:
Proud member of Duck nation!
Wafer, is there KEY BENCH guy
it’s like the blazers missing RUDY.
BLAZERS WITH A BIG ADVANTAGE.
"Awesome! Totally awesome! All right, Hamilton!"
If we can stop Lowry, et. al
But it is true that their bench doesn’t have a lot of offense on it…
Proud member of Duck nation!
maybe in the long term. . .
I can see making that change next season – but there’s no reason to do it now. Nate brought him off the bench way quicker than usual, and that was great. . . no reason to tinker with chemistry/pace/feel so much with such an important game. They should do what they did in game 5 – just pull Batum earlier than usual. . . you just never know what kinds of changes will put players off kilter. . . increase Rudy’s minutes by bringing him off the bench sooner. . .
Rudy should start vs. HOU
But against a more offensive-minded team like LAL, Batum’s D is needed…
Proud member of Duck nation!
if Rudy starts..
then who comes in for RUDY/ROY at the end of the 1st.. OUTLAW YES… but do we keep rudy in and cover ROYS minutes at the end of the 1st or what??
Start BATUM, hopefully he will make a short or 2.. and then keep the ROTATION after that.
"Awesome! Totally awesome! All right, Hamilton!"
Hollinger mentioned this in the Daily Dime today and had a really good point.
If you start Rudy, then you have to have Roy guard Artest because Rudy’s nowhere near physical enough to handle him. If Artest can get the right moves on Roy, he could end up in early foul trouble. If Batum starts out on Artest, that lets Roy guard Battier, which is a much easier and less-likely-to-get-you-called-for-fouls task.
But I do like Rudy coming in for Batum and doing so earlier than normal, like they did in Game 5.
Yes! Yes! In the face!
i just read that also...
very good point.
imagine if we had WEBSTER right now ughhh.. even though this season is not yet over.
CAN’T WAIT TILL NEXT YEAR :)
"Awesome! Totally awesome! All right, Hamilton!"
Martell the post defender?
It’s been awhile, but I don’t recall Webster being a great body-up post defender against burly forwards like Artest in past seasons.
In this series, Travis has had the most success keeping Ron away from the baseket, as strange as that may seem
John must've been reading my material?
I’ve been defending Nate’s decsision not to start Rudy using the “you really don’t want Roy guarding Artest, do you?” argument for several days, here and on Dwight’s blog
But will Adelman repeatedly clear a side and send Ron-Ron down to the post if Nate plays the three guard lineup? That’s the real question. (He’s done it a few times against Batum and Roy, and it has been successful.) And Artest used to abuse Portland’s skinny players down low when he was at Sac-town. But now Yao is the #1 post-up option so Ron has been shooting ill-advised jumpers.
Hopefully “Ron the bully” won’t rear his ugly head again, tonight
wafer is out of tonights game but.....
I think this might help the rockets because brent barry will likely get his minutes. Barry can hit threes and also play the point guard position, which will allow brooks to play shooting guard and focus on his offense and less about running the team.
" the rockets are here to kick ass and chew bubble gum , and they are all out of bubble gum "
It's hard to know what to expect
Because he hasn’t played except in game 1…
Proud member of Duck nation!
So.Much.FUN!
I’m out of town this week, so I’ll be watching the Blazers game on TNT for the first time in the series. Interested to see how much cred or slamming the national coverage gives our Blazers.
On the one hand, this is the most entertaining, hard fought matchup in the West conf playoffs this year. On the other, it may well be the 2nd “upset” now that the Spurs are out.
I think without a doubt tonight’s game IS the series. I LOVES my Blazers, but Houston should be able to beat us in the Toyota center (where they’ve OWNED us in recent years). If they drop the game and we snatch back homecourt, you KNOW they’ll be gripping like a mad men when they return to the RG.
GO BLAZERS!!!
If they win tonight
Game 7 is going to be about ten times louder than game 5 was…
Proud member of Duck nation!
good luck blazers
Just not too much luck..I don’t think the rockets or the rockets fans want to see a game 7 played…too many bad memories and heartache…
" the rockets are here to kick ass and chew bubble gum , and they are all out of bubble gum "
this SHOULD be the ROCKETS GAME 7.
if they lose tonight…THEY KNOW THEY ARE DONE FOR THE SEASON.
"Awesome! Totally awesome! All right, Hamilton!"
Bennet Salvatore is the lead official tonight
remind me, is that a good thing or a bad thing?
Golly Gee, I sure hope I didn't huwt anybody's feewings.... sniff...sniff....
I'm an elitist jerk, and I won't lie about it.
The WAVE is bad karma. When we lose, I'll blame it on our fans doing the wave......
I'm probably not supposed to show this, but....
Dude, someone is trying to trade custom Blazer pipes (for tobacco smoking of course) for playoff tickets.
Nothing like blazing with your Blazers pipe.
http://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/tix/1146351382.html
Golly Gee, I sure hope I didn't huwt anybody's feewings.... sniff...sniff....
I'm an elitist jerk, and I won't lie about it.
The WAVE is bad karma. When we lose, I'll blame it on our fans doing the wave......
Will Fernandez
join the starting lineup tonight?
"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."
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