"Taking Care of Business" - 4/3 UPDATE (Breathing room is good edition)

SO FAR SO GOOD

Now the stage is set to take homecourt advantage away from the Rockets and/or San Antonio.  Just handle your business boys, and the future looks rosy:

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland wins in Texas:

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, all else holds steady:
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA)	54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. HOUSTON	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS (tiebreak v DAL)	50-32
7. DALLAS	50-32
8. UTAH	48-34
OUT: PHOENIX	46-36

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats Houston, all else holds steady:
2. SAN ANTONIO	55-27
3. DENVER (tiebreaker v POR)	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. HOUSTON	52-30
6. NEW ORLEANS (tiebreak v DAL)	50-32
7. DALLAS	50-32
8. UTAH	48-34
OUT: PHOENIX	46-36

With those matchups, I'm not sure I WANT to be number two in the West.  While it means homecourt in the second round, it also means playing Dallas in the first round, and I dislike that matchup intensely.

RESULTS FROM TONIGHT'S KEY ACTION:

Portland beats OKC  (NICE...VERY NICE)

San Antonio beats Indiana  (Spurs get expected win)

New Orleans FALLS to Golden State  (Upset special comes through)

Houston FALLS to (some team from north of San Diego and South of San Francisco) (Home team handles business)

The Houston game was an expected loss for them.  New Orleans helped out and lost its game, as did the true third tier teams, Utah and Dallas.  Phoenix stayed alive.

SATURDAY'S KEY ACTION:

Well, Denver plays at LA Clippers, but that only counts as a key game if you think the lightning from tonight could strike twice and hit Denver to morrow.  I wouldn't bet on it, but everyone by now knows that's what it owuld take for Portland to catch Denver in the division race...some lightning.  Stranger things have happened (tonight even) (TWICE even).  Even if the Clippers don't win, wearing out Denver so that they have to play Minnesota with tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back would be helpful.  In short, hope for a Clipper win or a quadruple overtime game.

KEY GAMES WHERE UNEXPECTED RESULTS COULD HELP THE BLAZERS LISTED BELOW

As I was responding to a post below, I realized that bolding key games where we DON'T WANT THE EXPECTED "TAKING CARE OF BUSINESS" TO HAPPEN might give us more games of interest, so I have bolded games for each team in the hunt where rooting for a "non-traditional" outcome should help the Blazers:

SAN ANTONIO

(current:  49-26)  (projected:  55-27) 

(2 seed)

• Sun, Apr 5 at Cleveland L
• Tue, Apr 7 at Oklahoma City W (lost to OKC already AT HOME)
• Wed, Apr 8 Portland W  (lost TWICE to POR already, b2b for both teams, but Portland has a better record in those games and Popp might just help us out and rest guys)
• Fri, Apr 10 Utah W
• Sun, Apr 12 at Sacramento W
• Mon, Apr 13 at Golden State W  (2d of back to back)
• Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W

DENVER

(current:  50-26)  (projected:  54-28)

(3 seed)

• Sat, Apr 4 LA Clippers W
• Sun, Apr 5 at Minnesota W  (2d of back-to-back after long flight from LA)
• Wed, Apr 8 Oklahoma City W
• Thu, Apr 9 at LA Lakers L
• Mon, Apr 13 Sacramento W
• Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L

HOUSTON

(current:  48-28)  (projected:  53-29) 

(wins tiebreaker with POR, earning the 4 seed)

• Sun, Apr 5 Portland W (lost to them already)
• Tue, Apr 7 Orlando W (not sure why, except Orlando is good)
• Thu, Apr 9 at Sacramento W
• Fri, Apr 10 at Golden State W  (2d of back to back)
• Mon, Apr 13 New Orleans W (lost to them once already)
• Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L

PORTLAND

(current:  48-27)  (projected:  53-29)

(loses tiebreaker to HOU, meaning a likely 5 seed)

• Sun, Apr 5 at Houston L  (beat them once already)
• Tue, Apr 7 at Memphis W
• Wed, Apr 8 at San Antonio L  (beat them TWICE already, b2b for both teams, but Portland has a better ercord in those games and Popp might just help us out and rest guys)
• Fri, Apr 10 LA Lakers W
• Sat, Apr 11 at LA Clippers W
• Mon, Apr 13 Oklahoma City W
• Wed, Apr 15 Denver W

NEW ORLEANS

(current:  47-28)  (projected:  50-32)

(wins tiebreaker with DAL, earning a 6 seed)

• Sun, Apr 5 Utah W  (lost to them TWICE already)
• Tue, Apr 7 at Miami L
• Wed, Apr 8 Phoenix W  (2d of back-to-back)
• Fri, Apr 10 at Dallas L  (beat them TWICE already)
• Sun, Apr 12 Dallas W
• Mon, Apr 13 at Houston L
• Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L (possible W if Spurs rest guys?)

DALLAS

(current:  45-31)  (projected:  50-32) 

(loses tiebreaker to NO, earning a 7 seed)

• Sun, Apr 5 Phoenix W  (lost to them once already)
• Wed, Apr 8 Utah W  (lost to them TWICE already)
• Fri, Apr 10 New Orleans W  (lost to them TWICE already)
• Sun, Apr 12 at New Orleans L
• Mon, Apr 13 Minnesota W  (2d of back-to-back)
• Wed, Apr 15 Houston W

UTAH

(current:  46-30)  (projected:  48-34) 

(8 seed)

• Sun, Apr 5 at New Orleans L  (beat them TWICE already)
• Wed, Apr 8 at Dallas L  (beat them TWICE already)
• Fri, Apr 10 at San Antonio L
• Sat, Apr 11 Golden State W  (2d of back-to-back)
• Mon, Apr 13 LA Clippers W
• Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L (possible W if Lakers rest guys?)

PHOENIX

(current:  42-34)  (projected:  46-36) 

(OUT)

• Sun, Apr 5 at Dallas L  (beat them once already)
• Wed, Apr 8 at New Orleans L  (2d of back-to-back for NO)
• Fri, Apr 10 at Memphis W
• Sat, Apr 11 at Minnesota W  (2d of back-to-back)
• Mon, Apr 13 Memphis W
• Wed, Apr 15 Golden State W

Recent events and the upcoming schedule have really pushed Utah, Dallas and NO into a tier behind Houston and Portland.  Phoenix is probably nothing more than a spoiler at this point, unless Dallas or Utah continues to falter and Phoenix wins out.

What that means is, we continue to hope for those teams to get wins against Houston, San Antonio or Denver to help us out, but other than that, it really becomes Portland taking care of ITS business to earn homecourt...beat Houston, and you really turn the race around, because you have the tiebreaker, so it's really a FOUR game swing depending on whether we win at Houston.  How so?  If we win, we get a tiebreaker on them, plus a game gained in the standings.  If we lose, we fall a game behind in the standings and lose the tiebreaker, too.  So, it's the difference between being TWO up or TWO down...no pressure though, Portland, no pressure. Same result if we win in San Antonio

Putting that aside, we can still: 

BEAT HOUSTON (or San Antonio)!!!

Of Course, God helps those who help themselves, so the best thing Portland could do for itself would be to steal one of the Texas games, and hold serve on the other "should wins," as Portland would gain a game on Houston and/or San Antonio with a win, and would earn the tiebreaker with whichever team we beat based on the head-to head records (unless that team is a division winner, and Portland is not). 

Essentially, the game against Houston has the potential for a four game swing in the standings, effectively, for Portland. (see analysis of effect of wins vs. Houston and San Antonio, above.)

ROOT FOR ADDED LOSSES FOR DENVER, HOUSTON OR SAN ANTONIO IN BOLDED GAMES ABOVE, AND/OR PRAY FOR MORE LIGHTNING LIKE TONIGHT TO STRIKE THE TEAMS ABOVE US WITH UPSET LOSSES.

BOTTOM LINE:

What we as Blazers fans should be rooting for (and that's really the question here, right?) in any game between playoff contenders in the West is that the third tier guys (or spoiler Phoenix) win a couple against the first tier guys, specifically, San Antonio, Denver Denver, and Houston.  Other than that, everything going to plan means we get a four or five seed, and us beating one of the Texas teams likely gives us homecourt in the first Round.

All clear now?