Greg Oden- our future no stats allstar?
First, let me preface this post by stating that I am a member of the Greg Oden fanclub. I have an Oden 52 hat, wear it to games along with my Rudy Jersey, and ooh and ahh when Oden performs a vicious dunk. However, I will not be disappointed or offended if he fails to produce like Dwight Howard, and believe that there is a strong chance that he won't ever do so on the current incarnation of this team. I have two reasons for this: 1. our style of low post offense and 2. Greg's inherent unselfishness.
1: There seem to be 3 ways that our bigs get points in our half court sets, the pick and pop, the pick and roll, and isolation.
Pick and pop: Aldridge (and Outlaw if you want to call him a big) are the only guys capable of executing the pick and pop right now. Oden doesn't have a jumper and Przybilla has never had a jumper. Frankly, I would be stoked if Oden took one of those 18 footers from the top of the key when the bigs leave him open and drained it, but I'm fairly certain that Oden will never shoot the ball as well as Aldridge does. That creates a vicious cycle because since Oden can't shoot it, we won't run the pick and pop with him, and if we don't pick and pop with him, he won't ever learn to make the shot. But lets table this technique for now, as we don't really want Oden to become Memo Okur.
Pick and Roll: We have seen this executed beautifully before by our guards, and we have also seen it executed poorly. Even now Oden's length is enough for him to cover large distances quickly, which when combined with his massive size makes him a difficult cover for slow, large bigs or fast, small bigs. However we just don't execute this play that much, and I suspect that it has to do with the successful nature of the first technique and the next one:
Isolation: By now we've seen Yao's effectiveness when he's isolated in the low post, and really he is probably the best center besides Duncan (who's a tweener)
at playing isolation post offense. Aldridge is still developing his abilities, but he's got a few moves of his own such as the running hook, the fade away, the up and under, and so on. And really, he's the most effective big at playing isolation offense, and I am fairly certain that he is unequivocally the guy you would choose right now to play iso when compared to Greg. Here is the vicious cycle again: since Aldridge is better at the iso, we would prefer to throw it into him over Oden, which means Oden doesn't get a chance to improve his post moves (he'll just have to wait till summer).
Considering these things, I find it difficult to imagine that Oden would ever become the blazers featured low post scorer, especially if it came at the expense of LMA. That is not to say that Oden won't get touches, but there's only so many post entry passes that a team can do and still get the perimeter players their shots. So it will be interesting to see how that dynamic shakes out between these two.
So...my second point was about Oden's general unselfishness, but I've made this post too long already so I'm going to make this one short and sweet.
I have seen more games this year than any other year, and the one thing that intrigued me about Oden's off ball play was how he boxed out even at the expense of the actual rebound. While he is a phenomenal rebounder, I think he makes more of a concerted effort to box out as many guys as he can so that the wings can get at offensive and defensive boards, and he taps the ball out all the time when rebounding, leading to more of those offensive boards for the other players on the floor. LMA I think has been the biggest beneficiary of this as he gets more offensive boards as a result (I think Przybilla has the same effect as Oden in that sense). Is it possible then that Oden won't get 5-6 offensive boards a game (and therefore 5-6 putbacks), simply because the other players on the floor benefit from his box out and collect his boards?
On defense, I think he is being groomed to be the mobile big man as others have stated, essentially playing free safety in the post, altering shots and providing help defense, closing off lanes to the post. Right now he can't do it w/o getting fouls, but when he is fast enough to get in position, it will be interesting to see how much the defense might improve. With these thoughts in mind:the probable scarcity of touches on offense, his willingness to allow teammates to collect O boards and his potential ability to be a lock down help defender, I don't know if he will be able to collect the statistical numbers that reflect his true production on the court. But the fanboy inside me wearing that 52 hat certainly hopes so.
Oh by the way, sorry about the epic fail on keeping this post short.
2 recs |
27 comments
Comments
I agree and have noticed everything that you've said.
I do, however, believe that as the team develops more faith in him and he plays more minutes he will start to produce more actual stats along with the positive contributions he already makes (boxing out so others can get the board; making the competition think twice about going to the hole; etc.).
While he already gets more playing time, he is in a similar position that J.O. was in Portland. It will take longer for him to get to produce on paper, not because of who he is but because of who his teammates are. Why feed it over and over to him in the post so he can get a “feel for it” when Roy, LA, Rudy, Outlaw, and Blake could score it instead? It will take time, but in the end he will be all-star worthy whether or not the rest of the league notices. When J.O. went to Indiana he blew up because the Pacers had limited options. When Shaq came to Orlando he was really their ONLY option. If Greg was on Minnesota, he’d already be averaging 20 and 10, and losing. I like him right where he is. That 15-0 run doesn’t happen last night without his presence (and his blocks and boards).
this has been a message from: "The People's Alliance to give Greg Oden at Least a Couple of Seasons"
by bforsythe on Apr 29, 2009 3:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree with almost all your points
and think that Greg is gonna make a HUGE leap between now and the 09-10 All-Star break. I can’t wait to see what he’s gonna do at full health and after a year of experience under his belt. We live in such an instant gratification society….everybody who has already written him off is gonna be singing his praises, and we’ll all just smile and shake our heads knowingly.
But if Greg were on Minnesota, there’s just no way he’d be averaging a 20-10. His foul problems aren’t magically gonna go away just cuz he starts playing for a crappy team.
The Michael Ruffin of BlazersEdge, cuz Amlmart said so.
by BlazersOrBust on Apr 29, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed that his foul trouble wouldn't go away
but, because he’d touch the ball every time down the court (probably more than once) and because most of the rest of Minni are jump shooters, I would be surprised to see 15-15 in 15-20min.
by Gelvalst on Apr 29, 2009 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I kinda thought the same thing..
when I wrote it. But then I considered the few games where he did score 20/10. It was so easy for him to get there. And it was against teams that weren’t very good and the Blazers were more likely to steer off the game plan. I believe he would’ve continued to get fouls called against him – like a rookie big man. But I also believe NBA officials are less likely to callthe 5/6 foul against a team’s number one or two option. Again, I see Greg as being a victim of being on a really talented roster. It was OK for the officials to call the 5/6 foul on him because it wouldn’t necessarily have a major impact on the outcome of the game. I guess I can’t say he definitely would have been a 20/10 guy on a bad team, but I wouldn’t have been surprised at all.
this has been a message from: "The People's Alliance to give Greg Oden at Least a Couple of Seasons"
by bforsythe on Apr 29, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Spaniards + Greg = win
I bet Greg loves when plays Rudy and Sergio. Both seem to go out of their way to get him involved on offense, particularly Sergio, who really manipulates the defense well off of an Oden screen.
Greg doesn’t get many easy dunks fed to him by Blake and Roy, but Rudy and Sergio seem to make it happen quite a bit more.
by Twith on Apr 29, 2009 3:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
And I think that shows you that Greg just isn’t in the offensive plan yet. Rudy and Sergio are much more likely to go off course and take risks. Roy and Blake are not. As soon as Nate makes it part of the plan, you’ll see it from Roy and Blake as well.
this has been a message from: "The People's Alliance to give Greg Oden at Least a Couple of Seasons"
by bforsythe on Apr 29, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's my #1 fustration with Roy
He almost never looks for Greg.
by jksnake99 on Apr 29, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's probably...
just following orders.
I think that Greg needs to consistantly get better depth in the paint. Right now his affective depth is not that far out, that ball has got to practically come in when he’s a foot from the basket. A lot of times when Roy looks in, Greg isn’t deep enough yet and then the ball has to go around again. By then we are at 12 seconds in the shot clock. I think that Greg needs to get deeper sooner like Shaq used to do or at least be able to repost more quickly.
I also think that even when he gets deep enough, Greg lately has either fumbled the ball away or has it knocked away more often than not. I think Roy gives him one or two opportunites and then the outcome dictates the likelyhood that Roy sends it back in.
Every possession is much more important now that some people have to earn more touches.
I totally agree with you in that Greg needs more touches but I can understand Roy’s hesitation sometimes.
Traaaviiiis Outlaw!=Leerooooy JENKINS of basketball.
by DaNoose on Apr 29, 2009 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree
Roy is careful with the ball, and its a strength of his. He’s somewhat risk adverse, which is a good thing. He also can take it too far sometimes though.
by jksnake99 on Apr 29, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah he does take too far.
I think that after this playoff experience he will be ready to make another leap forward next year in that regard.
I think that Roy has the physical gifts to be a Kobe,Jordan, Wade, type game changer however what separates him from those guys is mental. Right now Roy is careful like you say and has confidence but is too worried sometimes about mistakes and possibly on how he is viewed. I can’t say this for sure, but he’s got to be aware of the National attention he is getting now and the expectations that come with that. I think that that in the back of his mind makes him too careful. It’s hard for me to articulate it. It’s like he is starting to truly believe that he is the face of the franchise and he doesn’t want to let people down.
I would like him to be like Jordan, Kobe, and that sort ,in that he allows the team to live or die with his decisions and not worry about it. I think he becomes closer to that next year, especially if he gets a taste of round 2 or deeper.
I don’t even know if that makes any sense.
Traaaviiiis Outlaw!=Leerooooy JENKINS of basketball.
by DaNoose on Apr 29, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What Roy and Greg need to practice
Is that oop that Kobe and Wade, respectively, did so well with Shaq. Greg can be an instant bailout for Roy – Brandon goes to the hoop, and if Greg’s man slides over (which he always will, unless he wants Brandon to score easily), then Roy can just lob up an unblockable oop.
Using this strategy, it was almost impossible for anyone to ever block Kobe or Wade’s shots during their championship runs. Plus, if Greg is trying to get into position for the O-reb, he should already be in the appropriate spot anyway.
by samuelleejackson on Apr 29, 2009 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sergio
Was the first to get Greg into the “alley oop mindset” I remember a few games he sits next to greg, very quietly talking about what they are planning… Then on the court… It was fun to see :)
by TheGreatDane17 on Apr 29, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't worry. The longer the post, the better quality it is (usually).
I see most of the issues with Greg Oden going away with time and experience. I guarantee that he’ll learn how to play defense without fouling, and that Oden will also figure how to make low post shots consistently. Once he gets those shots to fall, he will become a much bigger part of our post offense. Where LMA has the advantage against slower centers, Oden has the advantage against undersized players. We would have a versatile frontcourt that could unleash either beast depending on the opposing frontcourt.
From Russia With Love
by L-TrainFTW! on Apr 29, 2009 3:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Once he learns to set a pick...
his value to the team will improve greatly. That has been one of my biggest frustrations watching him, moreso than balls being slapped from his grasp or dumb fouls. He will get there, though.
The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers
by lukeyhere on Apr 29, 2009 4:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I think his picks are a little weak for a big guy.
he doesn’t seem to get there in time and ends up having to reach at the last minute with a hip. I know that Yao does this but Greg is more athletic and should be able to get there on time.
Also, after the pick he seems to be indecisive to me. I just want him to roll to the hoop but instead he just kind of floats out there. I think part of this is that his pick wasn’t that effective.
Traaaviiiis Outlaw!=Leerooooy JENKINS of basketball.
by DaNoose on Apr 29, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
bill walton in his rookie year averaged (approx) 12pts, 12rebs, played only 35gms
after 4 years at UCLA. in walton’s 2nd year he played 50+ gms, he averaged maybe 14 & 12 (forgive me but i looked at this a few days ago).
in bill walton’s 3rd year he led the blazers to the nba championship. the year after, they 50-10 until he stress-fractured his foot and was never the same.
greg oden is just fine.
you make a lot of good points in your post, particularly as regards boxing out for rebounds and how one player’s activity affects his teammates.
ignacio
by ignacio on Apr 29, 2009 4:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I know some people like to bring in the Walton comparison..
which makes sense. I think it’s pretty valid. Not anything against you though, but I am overly superstitious and try not to bring up Walton too much.
My mojo is like, “be careful what you ask for.”- My biggest fear is that he turns into this Bill Walton soon.
the year after, they 50-10 until he stress-fractured his foot and was never the same.
Traaaviiiis Outlaw!=Leerooooy JENKINS of basketball.
by DaNoose on Apr 29, 2009 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lets see how Greg looks after his first real off season
As early as next season we could be throwing the ball into him 15 times a game (please,please,please)
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
by Sabonis4Ever on Apr 29, 2009 4:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
can he become an efficient volume scorer?
I say volume because obviously his fg percentages are higher than Aldridge. I’m saying if he was getting the same number of touches as Aldridge, would he be converting a greater percentage than Aldridge is currently?
by premthegrem on Apr 29, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not this season
(probably not next season too) He still has to learn the post moves and adjust to the NBA……and stay healthy.
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
by Sabonis4Ever on Apr 29, 2009 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Down the road
I think so.
Next few years, probably not.
this year he’s getting his legs back under him.
Next year he’ll pick it up and then be shut down as teams clamp down on him (makes life winning for the rest of the blazers though).
Year after that, he starts to figure out defenses.
Year after that, 100% unstoppable.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
by ratbastird on Apr 30, 2009 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cats out of the bag with Lamarcus
next year he is gonna see a lot more doubles…when that is the case…if Greg gets just a LITTLE more solid with his drop step..( and learns to protect the ball in a crowd)… Dumping in to him is going to be CRUCIAL…and I expect his PPG will go up a fair amount.
by Roadblazer on Apr 29, 2009 5:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Greg needs to develop his offensive game
Then you will see his stats rise. Have him study Hakeem Olajuwon tape all summer & go to his big man camp.
by TheGreatDane17 on Apr 29, 2009 7:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yao was pretty shaky his first year
I watched several Rockets games his first year in the league and while he had a better offensive game, he was Odenesque on D. Never quite sure where to be to hinder a shot, ended up getting baited into silly reaching fouls on penetration. With experience, he looks like a different player on the defensive end.
One thing I liked about Oden last night was something one of the commentators mentioned-its good to work hard to deny the entry pass, but sometimes Yao is going to outmanuever you, and its better to concede the catch and make him shoot over you than it is to draw a foul trying to get back in front. Oden started doing that very effectively in the 4th quarter, and the lack of “too much effort” fouls allowed him to stay on the court.
by CT66 on Apr 29, 2009 8:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It's too bad. All we're gonna get is wins.
Everybody knows stats are the only indication of a good basketball player.
Just ask Zach Randolph :)
by Benjamanic on Apr 30, 2009 8:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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