The Most overlooked reason for Portland to be down 3-1
by usmcr3049 on Apr 27, 2009 3:13 PM PDT
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PrintWatching the Blazers I am like any other fan, I scream at my tv when:
-The refs call crazy fouls on Oden
-Don't give Yao fouls when he hacks someone,
-When Blake dribbles too much
-When LMA pops, instead of rolls on a pick and roll
-etc, etc, etc...
But in reflecting on this series so far, it becomes clear to me why the Blazers are sitting in a 3-1 hole. They have been very close in two games in Houston, one play here, or one play there could have changed the outcome. But to my eye, that one play needs to, and can only come from one player, LaMarcus Aldridge.
He is above all other players the one who has disappointed me the most this post season. It is not a huge shock, after all this is his first playoff test, and in his career he has never handled his first test of anything extremely well. In the last two months of the season he averaged about 19ppg, 9 rpg, 2assists, 1block, shooting 48%, and 83% from the line. In the first round that has dropped to 16.5ppg, 8.3rpg, 1.3assists, 2blocks, 44% shooting and 69% from the line. So maybe his last 2 months were just a good stretch, until you see his full season avg of 18.1ppg, 7.5rpb, 1.9assist, 1block, 48%shooting and 78% from the line.
The biggest factor in his decreased production has been his inability to post up Scola and company. His FG% in the 3 losses were, 25%, 40%, and 47%, in the one win he shot 58%. This has caused his fg% to drop significatly, along with a drop in his FT attempts. For the season LMA avg 4 FT per game, take out game 2 where he got to the line 8 times and he is avg only 1.6 FT per game, include it and he only gets up to 3.25 per game, (Game 2 is the only win for the Blazers in the series if you forgot, maybe this getting to the line think works huh?). We have not seen the post moves of LMA accept for game two, where he made a few lucky shots, but still was down on the block looking for contact and playing strong. The other 3 games he has been unable or unwilling to get down and dirty, causing him to shoot 20 footers, which he is now missing regularly. it is well known that if a player can get a few easy buckets, then his jumper will start to fall with more regularity.
Roy is doing his thing, average over 28 ppg, his assists are way down though, only 2.5 per game in the playoffs compared to 5.1 during the season. As many as 3 of those assists during the season are from pick and pops where LMA hits the shot, but without him hitting, Roy doesn't get the assists. His rebounds are up, his FT% is over 90%, his blocks are up, and steals are up. Blake's stats are up as well, he is playing well, even with 2 really badly timed turnover/shots. 10.2ppg, 7.3apg, 3rpg, 47% FG, 40%3pt. That is pretty steady.
Yes Outlaw has played like a scared kitten, but Rudy could and should make up for that if Nate would let him play. Rudy is avg 20mpg in the playoffs, vs 25mpg during the season. His FG% and 3pt% are through the roof at 57% and 58% respectively. Rudy needs to play more, that is without question.
But no one can replace what LMA gives this team, the Blazers need the LMA of March and April to not only win this series, but game 5.
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Where LMA has dissapointed me most is often on the defensive end...
Way to many times he is just to indecisive. He doesn’t know whether to double or not and ends up going half-way, doesn’t know whether to jump out on pick and roll or not and just goes half way. The important thing is making a commitment so that the rest of the defense can.
Rooo-D!
Aldridge is being stretched too thin on defense
He has to defend Scola/Landry, front Yao, help stop dribble penetration from guards, and protect the basket. Aldridge really has done a superb job at each of those task when he is able to focus on doing just one of them, but he can’t do everything at once. Aldridge is one of the best and most versatile defenders the Blazers have, but the Blazers are asking too much from him.
Tentative Play and Poor Offensive Execution
That’s been the deciding factor. Both of the games we lost in Houston, were within our grasp. Too many times I’ve seen guys hessitate to take shots in the flow of the action (Aldridge and Outlaw). If not that, then it is way too many DEAD-END possessions….You know the ones, where there is what appears to be a pick n’ roll occurring, except the dribbler gets to the free throw line, and then immediately throws it back out top above the free throw line. Basically we run the shot clock down, and put ourself in the position to settle for jumpshots.
The fouls called on the Blazer’s centers have been unfair, but we aren’t exactly getting to the basket effectively. We just need to want it more than Houston, and all the offensive rebounds, second chance points, and wide open Scola jumpers tell me that Houston wants it more. It’s too bad, because we should could be up 3-1 and looking to close this series out tomorrow night.
Can I buy you a fish sandwich?
Houston has good defenders at the forward position....and Yao
Our centers cannot bring Yao out of the paint. When LMA is on the low block he gets double teamed quickly. The best way to get LMA on track is to run and fast break. SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT DONE AT ALL!
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
I'd say this is a job for Channing Frye.
If only he would show more consistency on his outside jumper. That would be just what the doctor ordered for Portland.
Yes! Yes! In the face!
On paper
Frye should be the cure for Yao.
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
by Sabonis4Ever on Apr 27, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Frye's jumper isn't his weakest spot
His weakness is post and help defense. He can’t defend, that’s why he doesn’t play.
He has had stretches of good defense
He doesn’t bring the defense every time, but there have been at least 1 or 2 games this year where Frye has been the Blazers’ best defensive player.
I think shot selection is Frye’s biggest weakness. He relies on the “worst shot in basketball” to provide most of his offense. If he were to either move closer to the basket or move slightly further from the basket he would be a much better offensive player.
Anyone Notice
Rudy runs pick & rolls with LaMarcus better then anyone in terms of getting him an open shot?
I havent seen a lot
of rolling with LMA in this series. I think that is mostly due the fact that when you try and pick and roll against this team there is really no mismatch created as you are trading Scola/Landry for Artest/Battier.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
I would say the most overlooked reason is...
Maybe it isn’t overlooked, but I am too lazy to look through the plethora of fanposts to prove otherwise. So the most overlooked reason we are sucking it up is…drum roll please! The reason we are sucking it up is our point guards inability to make a play for himself. I love Blake and his clutch shooting, but he cannot and will not create his own shot when we need it, and so he is a perfect backup. Instead of going to the hole he takes a whack pull up jumper. B-roy is the only consistent and worthwhile player we have that can take it to the rim. Sure bayless can attack, but can he play the point? That is still up in the air. If you look at the successful teams in the playoffs they have a point guard that can create his own shot (aka attack the rim). Boston has rondo (who just might be the next The Big O), Chicago has Rose (come play in the city of your surname), Utah has williams, New Orleans has Paul (N.O. should be called the jazz and Utah should be called “the polygamists”), Denver and San Antonio have Billups and Parker respectively. There are others that could be mentioned like: Bibby, Kidd, Miller, Mo Williams, Chalmers. As you can see all the above, with maybe the exception of Kidd now that he is our elder, can create their own shot. We do not have a player like these other teams do. Maybe Bayless will develop into a point guard, but maybe not. Who do we need? I have no clue. I’ll leave that up to K.P.. I do like Johnny Flynn out of Syracuse, but I have been wrong before when it comes to evaluating talent. I would rather see us draft for our need than trade, unless we can get the likes of rose, D-Will, or Paul, but I doubt it.
My bad...
Maybe all the teams aren’t successful, but they have shown more attack oriented ball.
by NDREXLERDRIVE on Apr 27, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions
What do Steve Blake, Derek Fisher, and Maurice Williams have in common?
Answer: They are all jump-shooting PGs who don’t get to the basket very often. They are also the PGs of the best and 2nd best (by point differential) teams in the west and the best team in the East.
Teams really don’t need to have a quick, penetrating PG to be successful.
I see your point,
but I would argue that Maurice Williams attacks the rim more than both fisher and blake. Derek is a savvy vet that plays with possibly the best player in the league and a incredible supporting cast, so he doesn’t have to score as much as the other points I mentioned. My main argument, and I may not have stated it clearly, is that we need a threat at point other than a spot up 3-point shooter. Maurice can break down a defense, Fisher not as much even though he uses his mid-range game much more than blake. Blake really struggles in this area. More than half of Blake’s made field goals were 3 pointers, 277-647 fg’s/140-328 3’s. Maurice Williams, 526-1,126 fg’s/183-420 3’s. Same goes for Derek, 292-688 fg’s/ 120-302 3’s. As you can see Mo hits more inside shots, as does derek, but not by much. San Antonio won 3 championships with Parker at the point and we all know he scores in the paint more than any point. You are comparing two points that play with the two best players in the league. I love B-Roy, but he is not in the same conversation as Lebron and Kobe as of right now in his career. I think he will be top 5 for a long time, but there is a big step to get to the top 2. Boston won with Rondo last year. Pistons won with Billups. Heat won with Wade who was essentially playing point. The great lakers teams had magic. The pistons of the 80’s had Thomas. Either you have a dominant inside game ala Hakeem, Chamberlain, Russel. Or you have a one man killing machine ala Jordan, Bird, and this year Lebron. All those teams had a complete supporting cast, which I think we almost have. IMO our weakest link is our starting PG and so since this is the blame game I’ll place blame on a PG that can not break down the defense.
by NDREXLERDRIVE on Apr 27, 2009 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Fisher
works because the Lakers have a low post player in Gasol, if LMA could provide that Blake would be a great pg for this team, just like Fisher is for them.
OK I see your point.
but I would say LA and Gasol have a pretty similar game. Maybe Pau uses his post moves a little more often, but they both shoot mid-range jump shots and they both are frail players. So I agree that derek is good, but not GREAT. My point is that steve does not make the defense worry when the ball is in his hands, period. They know he can shoot the 3, but once that threat is gone then no more worries.
by NDREXLERDRIVE on Apr 28, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I disagree and agree
I think Blake has played about as well as he has all season during this series, LMA has not, Blake is not the reason the Blazers are down 3-1.
However I do believe that for the Blazers to be true condenders they need an upgrade at the point.
LMA isn't the main problem
He’s playing pretty similar to how he’s played the whole season. Mostly taking jumpshots in the halfcourt offense. In this series, the Rockets have completely shut down the offensive rebounds and the fast breaks that often lead to easy buckets for LMA. I share the same frustration toward LMA for taking so many long 2 point shots. But that’s how he plays the game, I don’t blame him for not changing the way he plays especially against a stout defensive team like the Rockets. Defensively, he can do better. In fact, everyone of our players can do better. I don’t see a reason to single him out.
I think the bench and role players have not shown up for the series aside from Rudy. Blazers need better contribution from these players to win these games. Roy cannot be expected to score over 30 points a game or LMA shooting 60%. The other guys have to step up and make plays. That’s the difference in this series, different Rocket role players have made an impact every game.
Life is not by chance. Basketball is life.
LMA is playing much worse in the playoffs
LMA developed a low post game, last year and continued to improve it this year during the season. But in the playoffs he has once again settled for long jumper after long jumper. Scola doesn’t even have to defend him on the block anymore because LMA has basically given up down low. How many sweeping, running hooks has LMA even tried this series? That was a staple of him during the season, and he shot almost 90% on it, yet he has not even tried one that I can remember, (save maybe one or two in game 2). What about the “fake turnaround, jump toward the rim” move that has created contact, got him some free throws, and even a few and-one’s? Haven’t seen it, accept for game one where Yao blocked it, since then he hasn’t tried it.
Houston’s, defense has make LMA give up on his low post game, he needs to get that confidence back if the Blazers are going to get back in this series.
Scola
Houston won 53 games, not all because of Yao. Scola’s a goofy looking guy with stooped posture, not terribly athletic. Nice defender, though. The rest of the rockets have been helping at EXACTLY the right moment to throw off LaMarcus.
You can beat Houston with offense at 1 and 5. Not Portland’s forte…
by Engineering Problem on Apr 27, 2009 10:39 PM PDT reply actions
A Rockets Fan Perspective
I kinda agree with with this article. I don’t know if LMA is THE reason, but I definitely thought he’d give us more trouble than he has. He’s taller than all of our power forwards, and definitely quicker. Every time he hits one of his sweet mid range jump shots I start to worry, wondering if it will be the shot that sets him off. Still, he never seems to quite get it going the way Roy does, even though Roy is hounded by our best defenders. If LMA is to take to the next level, he needs to be able to use his quickness to beat his man off the dribble and take it all the way in, drive and dish, or stop and pop. I’ve seen the stop and pop, but not the other two.
agreed. Scola has to me been the difference in this series. He has hit so many late in the shot clock elbow jumpers it's ridiculous.
He has made the little plays, the box-outs, the swipes at balls, the free throws. But most of all, he has really frustrated Aldridge. LMA looks tentative when Scola is on him. I’m not worried about LMA though. This will be a valuable learning experience, and he will l remember this series next year.
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