FanPost

A challenge/request for KP2

 

Here's a challenge/request for Kevin Pelton, if he doesn't have enough to do while watching the NBA playoffs. 

It is often observed, and certainly has been so in relation to the Portland/Houston series, that referees call the game differently in the playoffs.  Others doubt this, or think that any observable changes in officiating are the result in changes of player behavior, not referee behavior.  Certainly, some in the league rather dislike the suggestion, as the rulebook doesn't call for different rulesets to be used in the postseason--and other major sports in the US aren't perceived to have this problem.

So the challenge for KP2, then, is--demonstrate that the claim is likely true, and/or refute it, with numbers.

Such an analysis will probably have to look more at just foul numbers--but will have to account for what sort of fouls are called (where on the floor, what body contact), and control for things like the extended minutes starters play (which might alone explain any reduction in fouls in the postseason), and/or the fact (or at least perception) that players go harder in the postseason.

But I would love to see the sort of detailed analysis that says, "on X% of drives to the basket in the regular season, the defender was called for handchecking above the foul line; this decreases to Y% in postseason games; this delta is not easily explainable by the shorter rotations in the playoffs" or something like that.

Given some hard numerical evidence by a skilled statistician with an extensive database of games--that might have a bigger impact than observables, even skilled ones, making claims that can't be falsified.