+/-/Head Explosion

by robrun2 on Apr 25, 2009 11:12 AM PDT Comment 11 comments

We all know that the +/- stat is one of the most easily manipulated ones in the league. It can tell whatever story the person holding the stat sheet wants. Often during games, I joke about how bad someone's +/- will probably be, and I'm usually quite right. After last night's game, it seemed that my friends and I were all in agreement: Blake and Travis probably had horrible nights while Rudy probably led the team.

The stats told a different story. Not only was Travis not the worst +/- player on the team, he was the best at an astounding +13. Do you think Nate factored this stat into his decision to keep Trav on the floor?

Blake was still at a respectable +2, although no one can doubt that he choked on multiple levels despite his incredible stat line.

Then there's Rudy, the game's potential savior. Surely he must be at +8 or +9 or something like that. Wrong. He was at a -4.

The center spot was the other big differential with Joel at a game-worst -18 and Greg at a great +8.

Strangely enough, the Rockets didn't have anyone with a +/- in double digits going either direction. Blazers are a team of extremes, I suppose.

All these stats tell us is that +/- is conventional wisdom's worst possible enemy. Whether that's a good thing is the real question.

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More precise (look at the stints when hovering the mouse over the columns, everything from +10 to -7)

http://popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/gameflow.cgi?date=20090424&game=PORHOU

In general, +/- is not a particularly useful individual stat (for a game), but it’s helpful to evaluate players over a longer timeframe like a season and in particular which 5 players work together well on the court (units).

Travis isn’t a bad matchup against Houston, as he makes it harder for Battier and Artest to shoot over him than say Rudy. He wasn’t really hot last night, just on the court when others scored while keeping his man in check.

That stop and go by Roy is straight sick. I'm calling him "The Flu" from now on. - Wendell Maxey

by Norsktroll on Apr 25, 2009 11:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah.

I like +/- over an entire season.

When I came here (in 2004), guys like Nick (Van Exel) and Damon, they were a breath of fresh air for me,'' Przybilla

by Nick Van Excellent on Apr 25, 2009 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think that it's a worthless stat.

I Personally think that Our former stat bo and his company taught me alot about the +/- stat.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Apr 25, 2009 11:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That's the most positive thing I've read about Zach in ages.

by Corvid on Apr 25, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Over time +/- stats are telling

In any individual game they can lie.

I wish 82games would come out with their playoff ratings already. Take a look at the dominance the best player in the NBA has over how his team performs. And yes, this team really would be that bad (maybe not THAT bad, but really bad) without him.

In 122 minutes on the court LeBron James and the Cavs are 56 (22 per 48 minutes)
In 22 minutes off the court for LeBron James the Cavs are -15 (-33 per 48 minutes)

That means when their +/- stats come out LeBron James will have an incredible +55 On Court/Off Court rating per 48 minutes.

by as11osu on Apr 25, 2009 11:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

what's zach's +/- over time..??? seriously I went and looked it up.

there goes your arguement.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Apr 30, 2009 2:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Apparently, someone doesn't understand the concept of small sample size or adjusted per-minute +/- ...

production over a period of games.

For yesterday’s game, however, Travis Outlaw lucked into having a solid +/- by being on the court when his teammates — rather than him — got the ballclub back into the game. That’s why I suggest the NBA publish game-by-game five-man unit +/- production in conjuction with individual +/- production.

At any rate, though, I’ve got a question for the people who doltishly detest advanced statistical metrics. How does it sit with you that the Portland Trail Blazers front office employs a multitude of guys who are experts in the field of APBRmetrics?

I’m really curious as to what kind of answers will be produced by that question.

by AK1984 on Apr 25, 2009 12:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I luv basketball, I hät math

That’s my answer.

"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice

"Let's go to win the playoffs!!!" -Rudy Fernandez

by koyote on Apr 25, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ironically, I also hate math.

After getting a B+ in Algebra II/Trig in 10th grade, I was pretty much done with math.

I took a Applications of Contemporary Math course in community college a few years ago, too, but that was relatively simple stuff that a junior high kid could do with ease. I had to pass that class to earn my Associate in Arts & Sciences Degree, though.

by AK1984 on Apr 25, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the story of the game is Przybilla's -18 rating

Przybilla hurt the team on both ends of the court. As usual, he was a liability on offense. The reason why Przybilla really hurt the team, though, was that he did not have his usual positive impact on defense. Even though Yao did not score much, the team clearly does not trust Przybilla to defend Yao 1-on-1 (nor should they) and kept coming to help Przybilla, thus weakening team defense. Even when Przybilla wasn’t defending Yao, he got burned by Scola a few times in the post as well.

Outlaw’s +13 rating is largely due to not being on the court at the same time as Przybilla.

by trk on Apr 25, 2009 2:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs