Hollinger Likes Houston's Chances

"The road teams that were ahead in point differential after two games went on to win the series 11 of 20 times, and in only two of the 20 cases were they eliminated before Game 7; in both of those cases, they were playing against Michael Jordan.

So good news, Rockets fans: Based on NBA history, there's about a 90 percent chance that, at worst, your team will be playing a seventh game in Portland, and there's a better-than-even chance that Houston will win the series."

In short, few road teams have accumulated as good a point differential in games 1 and 2 as Houston has. While this series remains wide open (witness that 9 of the 20 home teams outscored in the 1st two games went on to win the series-- Portland will try to be the 10th), the odds are strongly against Portland winning the series before 7 games. If it ends in 5 or 6, Houston is almost certain to be on top.

Also, in his Insider gems today, Hollinger gave a few thoughts on the kid, Jeremy Tyler, skipping his Senior year of HS to play professionally-- and reminds us that Ricky Rubio has been a pro since age 14.

almost 3 years ago jksnake99 20 comments 0 recs |

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ppffft to stats

each situation is unique. Probably the only 10% I’d ever take the odds on with a ton of money.

The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.

by ratbastird on Apr 23, 2009 2:49 PM PDT reply actions

we could win this series

and still come out losing on that point difference.

The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.

by ratbastird on Apr 23, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions

absolutely its possible

we still have probobly a ~45-48 or so percent chance to win the series, but its highly unlikely we’ll do so in fewer than 7 games.

by jksnake99 on Apr 23, 2009 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions

The only issue I have with this...

is that Game 1 was literally the first game of most of our rosters’ careers. It’s part of the reason why I’ve almost wished we DIDN’T have home court advantage in this series.

You HAD to know that first game was gonna be a stinker. Too much pressure.

But I like to be here. Oh, I like it a lot! Said the Cat in the Hat. To the fish in the pot.

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Apr 23, 2009 3:09 PM PDT reply actions

another stat only telling part of the picture

Game 1 may as well be thrown out. To try and make a solid arguement based on game 1’s point diff is ridiculous and misleading. If I did something like that in my profession I’d get fined and have my license revoked.

by keepfryealive on Apr 23, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions

you can't throw game 1 out, but there's no question that this analysis has issues

There’s only been 20 series where this happened (not that many) and game 1 does feel like a bit of an outlier.

by jksnake99 on Apr 23, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions

revisionist history

I think most Blazer fans picked Portland to win that game.

by jksnake99 on Apr 23, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Yep

pretty darn close to 100%. They were playing so well leading up to the game. Inexperience sure did show Saturday. I’m really anxious to see how they play Friday. You never know what to expect with this team.

by keepfryealive on Apr 23, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions

I think the surprises are gone.

That’s not to say we won’t get beat or even blownout again… but the Blazers played with the deer-in-the-headlights look in Game 1.

I don’t expect to see that again, unless they miraculously make the Finals.

But I like to be here. Oh, I like it a lot! Said the Cat in the Hat. To the fish in the pot.

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Apr 23, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions

most people took Portland in the series...

I took Houston in 6.

However, now that the boys know how hard they have to play in order to earn a win in the playoffs, I actually like our chances more now than I did before Game 1. If only our bench and role players could score some points to take the pressure off of Roy and LMA to score 65% of the total, I’d feel a lot more confident.

But I like to be here. Oh, I like it a lot! Said the Cat in the Hat. To the fish in the pot.

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Apr 23, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Hollinger is missing the trend.

1 We lose by 30…

2 We win by 5…

So….

3 We win by 10…

4 We win by 20…

5 And, finally, we win by 30 at the Rose Garden. TOTAL REVENGE!!!

"They didn't know it was impossible, so they did it"

by amlmart1 on Apr 23, 2009 3:22 PM PDT reply actions

No way

I wanna lose by 27
Win by 4
Win by 5
Win by 6
Win by 7

We improve each game and we still have a negative point differential. Take that Hollinger!

by Zaig on Apr 23, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions

Interesting

that so few road teams that split the first two go on to win a series.

What that tells me is that home court advantage means less in series where the teams split the first two games, because in all other series, having homecourt is, what, like a 75 percent advantage. What Hollinger is saying is that the percentage is much less than that (55 percent) for road teams that have a winning point differential, and even smaller for teams where the road teams who get a plit, but lose point differential.

And just looking at Portland historically, in both of their last two Championship appearances, they earned a split on the road, then lost the series.

So, Houston only being an 11 out of 20 shot to win the series after splitting in Portland AND winning thepoint differential battle is encouraging. Plus, the numbers are probably inflated in Houston’s case, given the extenuating circumstances of Portland’s players for the most part getting their first NBA playoff experience in game 1.

I like Hollinger’s numbers, but obviously come to the opposite conclusion about what follows from them. GO BLAZERS!!!

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Apr 23, 2009 4:00 PM PDT reply actions

Point differential in two game samples?

Doesn’t seem significant enough to draw any meaningful conclusions from. It works over a season but everyone knows that blowouts can skew things.. I think that’s the case here. The Blazers may not even make it back into the positive in this series because of game 1, but I think everyone agrees we have a close-to-even chance to win. All our wins will probably be contested though (under 10 points). Some stat analysis just doesn’t apply to playoff series.

by amitp06 on Apr 23, 2009 4:58 PM PDT reply actions

Here's my hope

We win the series in 5 but are behind in overall point differential for the series. It’ll make Hollinger’s head explode.

by robrun2 on Apr 23, 2009 6:07 PM PDT reply actions

no it won't

he would file it under “crazy stuff happens” and move on.

by jksnake99 on Apr 23, 2009 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, Hollinger will be the first to tell you his formulas and statistics don't predict the future.

He is a lot more accurate than people give him credit for though.

by Bskey on Apr 23, 2009 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Jeremy Tyler

You all know that if you could do what he is doing you would do the same thing. C’mon – who needs school when you can make those bucks. Don’t give me all the philisophical speak – you would in a heart beat. It’s all about setting yourself up for life, which we are all trying to do.

Here is my Playoff mode signature, that I thought up myself: "Just Do It".

by johnv59 on Apr 23, 2009 6:29 PM PDT reply actions