Things to consider heading into game 3 tomorrow

Advantages for Portland

• Outlaw hasn't played well yet.
  Outlaw has struggled with consistency his whole career, and is a streaky offensive player who gets most of his points via jumpers. He's shooting 7/19 in this series with only 3 rebounds. In the season series with Houston, he had 14 points with 13 rebounds, 15 points with 3 rebounds, and 15 points with 5 rebounds. He can score on Houston. But his defense isn't strong enough to justify his minutes if his offense isn't there. That said, he's been big for us in a lot of games this year, and his attempts and shooting percentages are all higher on the road than at home (to the tune of 4.6% for three point shooting). Travis is a road warrior, and is due for a big game or two.
• The team is just getting used to the twin towers rotation.
  It's unfortunate coach McMillan didn't use it more in the regular season, so the players could get a feel for where they need to be on the floor and get comfortable with running the offensive sets. The twin towers lineup has the potential to be extremely effective defensively, especially when Hayes is alongside Yao, and can shut Houston's interior offense down when Aldridge needs to rest (he played 44 minutes in the last game). If they can also figure out a way to score, we'll see more of it in this series, keeping Aldridge fresher and hopefully keeping his productivity up by allowing him more rest.
• No more Channing Frye in minutes that matter.
  This is a big move by the coaching staff. When Aldridge needs to sit, they are willing to sacrifice offense for defense and play a second center instead of playing Frye. It's a little sad that's it's come to this, but his inability to play interior defense or hit shots has made his floor minutes a liability that there's no room for in the playoffs. The same is true for Bayless. We're likely to see a Brandon/Rudy backcourt if Sergio isn't doing the job. There's no room for error here, the season is on the line.
• Aaron Brooks has played out of his mind.
  He is 19/29 for the series thus far, and 9/13 from behind the three point line, with 12 assists and 6 rebounds in two games. Hard to imagine he's going to stay this hot the whole series, so it's probably not too much to expect his productivity to drop off some, even if the match up is advantageous for him (which we'd surely admit, it is).

Advantages for Houston

• Aldridge and Roy were 26/46 in game 2. Is this repeatable?
  Roy is capable of a high level of production every night, but it's too much to expect him to score 40+ again on Friday, when he'll be double-teamed on most of his touches. Couple that with Aldridge also shooting a high percentage on Tuesday, and you have to expect production from these two to be somewhere short of what they did in game 2. Role players are going to have to step up their contribution for Portland to win.
• Houston has an advantage with participants 11-13.
  As has been pointed out elsewhere, barring the last minute of the game where they chose to foul, the Rockets have an advantage with the guys with the whistles. We have every reason to expect that this will likely increase, or at best stay the same in Houston. Portland is going to need to find ways to score without relying on foul calls when they're hit on drives to the paint. Couple this with the home playoff crowd, and it's going to be incumbent upon the Blazers to come out with energy and focused execution early to establish themselves as the aggressors in the eyes of the refs.
• Adelman will figure out how to get Yao more looks.
  Coaches make adjustments between games, and there's no reason to think Houston won't find a way to get Yao more looks. He's automatic from 8 feet and in, and the Blazers must expect more cross screens, double screens, down picks, and dump and dash isolations for Yao. Expect him to get closer to 20 points and 10 boards in 35 minutes this game, which means less bad shots by Ron Artest, and likely higher overall offensive efficiency from them. Portland has to be ready to counter this.
• Turns out Houston has a serious match up advantage at the PG position.
  Steve Blake has been ineffective this year as an outlet shooter against the Rockets, with the last game being the first in five tries where he's broken double digits in scoring (with 10, he has yet to reach his season average). He's done well in not turning the ball over this series, with 11 assists and only one turnover, but he hasn't been able to fill the role he's performed so well this season as a spot up shooter when opponents double team, because Brooks and Lowry get back to him too quickly and Houston has outstanding defensive rotations. And he hasn't been able to team up with his pick and roll partners to defend the Rockets PGs effectively either, obviously. I wrote earlier about how we had an experience advantage at the point, but there is no doubt now that speed trumps experience.