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Brutal, but there is hope

Short of an injury, that game could not have gone much worse for Portland. However, after letting my thoughts settle and looking at the box score, I think Portland will bounce back in game 2, because just about everything went right for Houston and about everything went wrong for Portland.

Star-divide

Yao and Scola went 16-18. You could completely ignore them in Game 2 and leave them wide-open, and they would not match that again. It was a fluke.

Portland shot 9% from the 3-point line. That won't happen again.

Aaron Brooks had 27 points and 7 assists. Granted, he is better than anyone Portland has, but that won't happen again. He hit five 3-pointers Saturday. In the regular season, he hit five only once, and scored over 22 points only once.

As much as I hated to buy into what the "experts" say (because the same ones said Boston would sweep Chicago), it appears they were right in saying that Portland's youth and inexperience would cause them to panic if they started slowly.

Hopefully the Blazers got it out of their system and realize now in retrospect that when the going gets tough, you can't abandon your strengths and start going 1 on 5 every possession; Portland will not win with Roy putting up 23 shots with two assists. I looked up the season game logs, and Roy put up 23 or more shots only four times all season and Portland lost every one of them (including a game against Houston).

Contrary to what everyone is saying, LMA needs to realize that Houston wants him to put his head down and pound it inside, because that isn't his strength but it is Houston's strength defensively. While we all want LMA to drive it inside more than once a game, it doesn't make sense to do so when they are packing four guys in the lane waiting for him, as they did on the first possession when Yao blocked LMA's shot.

LMA has to hit some of those outside shots to open things up, and THEN drive. Same with Roy; I love the aggression, but driving it inside on four guys, when all of them are taller than you, is not wise. Kick it out to the open three. If Rudy and Blake and Outlaw can't hit and outside shot, it is on them, but you won't know until you try; don't abandon the strategy that got you here because you fall behind early... weather the storm.

Blake and Sergio have to man up and do something to stop Brooks... they need to take it personally. If they really are incapable of stopping him, and they are going to miss open shots and turn it over, then start Bayless and play him for 48 minutes. Of course, I am being facetiously, but Brooks is not that good. If you are going to get torched, then at least hit some shots and take care of the ball.

Good game for Oden. 15 points 5 boards in 22 minutes with only 3 fouls (6-7 from the field).. he was active and looked good. Oden was probably the only positive for the Blazers in game 1.

Nate needs to consider starting Rudy or Outlaw over Batum for offense. Some will say you don't change this late, but the playoffs are all about adjustments, because teams don't play each other 4-7 times in a row in the regular season. There is no shame in tweaking.

Or, if Batum is going to start, he needs to show up. Two points and 0 rebounds in 19 minutes isn't going to cut it as a starting SF on a playoff team. He is a nice player, but I don't see value in this series. His strengths are defense and finishing on fast breaks, but Portland doesn't run against Houston, and there is no one for him to shut down, as Battier isn't known for offense and Artest is too strong. So, his defense is wasted, and meanwhile, Portland gets 2 points from their starting SF.

Nate could start Outlaw and not get hurt defensively by leaving Battier open, but Portland would at least have another offensive option (although Travis' two rebounds in 26 minutes is mind-boggling as well).  

If Portland can win Game 2, I think all will be okay. What everyone is forgetting in this working theory that the Blazers are too young and inexperienced is that the Rockets are very experienced... with losing in the first round!

The Rockets have not made it out of the first round since 1997. In other words, they have more playoff experience, but the memories are of losing and choking. If Portland can get back on track, the pressure all falls on Houston to not blow it in the first round, yet again... don't underestimate the pressure of that albatross on the Rockets' neck.

Final note: Continuing the trend of the national media having no respect for this series, one game after pulling two people randomly out of the crowd to call game 1, game 2 is on NBA TV, which is available in 15 living rooms across the world.

 

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Speaking of choke jobs, I forgot about the Laker/Celtic finals last year

I understand your comments. I would be scared of Portland advancing as well, if I were a Laker fan. But as a Blazer fan, I can tell you I am not wasting one second trolling Laker posts.

by explicator on Apr 19, 2009 10:18 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

"Yao and Scola went 16-18. You could completely ignore them in Game 2 and leave them wide-open, and they would not match that again. It was a fluke."

If you single cover Yao again, he may not be perfect, but he will have a similar game. It’s not the first time this year he was perfect from the field, so don’t be surprised if it’s not the last.

Time to galvanize

by jack_ on Apr 19, 2009 11:43 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Actually, Roy has taken 23 or more FGA 6 times in the regular season

We lost 5 of those games (the one we won was when Roy scored 52 vs Phoenix). There definitely seems to be a correlation between Roy taking a lot of shots and losing. When Roy takes 20 or more FGA the Blazers are 5-12, when he plays but takes less than 20 FGA the Blazers are 47-14.

by trk on Apr 19, 2009 11:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

that is a compelling stat.

And backs my sense that our offense is not at its best unless we are involving everybody. It’s one thing to do the iso with two minutes left in the game, but in the first quarter? It’s like conceding victory at the start. We must believe in our gameplan, whatever it is, and keep trying to work it. If not for a series victory, for our chances against Houston in the future. Learn Something!! The Rockets aren’t going away. We should take advantage of every minute of this series to try to solve them cause we may very well be back playing them again next year!

by Blazin' on Apr 19, 2009 11:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that won't work against Houston

It’s a question of getting good looks. If Houston knows that no one else wants to score but BRoy,we will lose by 40! So even if we are missing bucket after bucket, we need to keep trying to play team offensive basketball. If only so we can get better at it for the next time we face Houston.

by Blazin' on Apr 21, 2009 2:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Realistically speaking

 I wholly believe that Nate will get the team ready to come out and play in the second game.

One thing that really sticks out in my mind is simply the fact of what they did to get to this point. The last month of the season wasn’t comprised of nail biter games and last second wins. Even when we were down double-digits to San Antonio we came back and blew them out on their own court. There are a lot of games to point to to remind the team who they are:
Denver, Pheonix, the OKC beat downs and the last two games against the Lakers.

Nate could show them video of their hustle, defense and sharing the ball that was so devastating to LA and Denver. That would remind this team that no one can stop them when they’re playing together. Even if the Refs are infatuated with Battier, Artest and Yao.

"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."

by Seijeff on Apr 20, 2009 9:46 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Careful now

You’re going to turn me in to the whiner police if you keep complaining about refereeing. It is so lame!

by Blazin' on Apr 21, 2009 2:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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