Historical Stats To Chew On

Okay...now we've all got a lot of time on our hands waiting for Tuesday. Here is a great site to "geek" over while we wait.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES.

BEST-OF-7 PROBABILITY FORMULAE has my head spinnin'...oh my...wish I had Norsktroll's brain!

almost 3 years ago jstbeachy 8 comments 1 recs |

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so the historical record for road teams getting the first win in the preliminary round of the NBA (since instituting 7 game series) is 5-7 (.417) with (what I think) a very low chance of winning the next game 2-10 (.167).

yay! history is on our side. Even considering the small sample when you look at all sports the road team still only has slightly less than even odds on winning a series by taking the first game.

Take it to the Hole!!

by galacticlove on Apr 19, 2009 4:00 PM PDT reply actions

yep, and for all rounds

if the road team wins game one, the road team has a 56% chance of winning the series and a 25% chance of winning game two.

by PoliSam on Apr 19, 2009 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions

...

Series isn’t over, if you remember the series between Houston and Dallas where Houston beat Dallas twice at home and everyone kept saying Dallas is done… then Dallas ended up winning the next 2 in Houston and advancing.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_NBA_Playoffs for more)

Just need to fix our game.

-brandonmitchell.org

by brandonmitchell on Apr 19, 2009 4:37 PM PDT reply actions

Well, if I read that right

home teams that lose game one still end up winning 192-89 (.683) of the next games and 243-38 (.865) of the series.

Of course, correlation does NOT equal causation here…obviously the fact that you have homecourt advantage means you’re probably already the better team……………

My sig. is gone on vacation.

by prezofdeath on Apr 19, 2009 10:59 PM PDT reply actions

you read that wrong

your numbers are for home teams that win game 1.

In NBA history, home teams losing game 1 have gone 72-25 (.742) in game 2 and 42-55 (.433) in the series, so Houston’s now in the drivers seat but Portland is a favorite in game 2 and the series is far from over.

by jksnake99 on Apr 19, 2009 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions

hmm, interesting

thanks for having my back jk. i was in a hurry so i kinda’ just glanced at it. thanks for keeping me honest ;-p

My sig. is gone on vacation.

by prezofdeath on Apr 20, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions

Why are we so anxious to go over such trivial statistics to help us feel confident going into the playoffs?

Brandon "The Royal" Roy or "Royal 7". What ever sticks.

by dpnim on Apr 20, 2009 4:09 PM PDT reply actions

Is it because we haven’t been in a while? That’s no excuse. I’m sick of reading all of the statistics and historical nonsense (not that it really is) but that’s not going to help us win. Higher “probability” isn’t going to win us games. Let’s talk more strategy than statistics. Houston is beatable and if it’s one thing I know about the playoffs is you learn your opponents strengths and weaknesses and use them to your advantage.

Brandon "The Royal" Roy or "Royal 7". What ever sticks.

by dpnim on Apr 20, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions