The Sky: it is not falling

by diskord on Apr 18, 2009 10:07 PM PDT

So this loss wasn't fun, in fact it was downright one of the, nay, the most painful day of the year for me. Lets get that out of the way, this was just an embarassment from start to finish.

BUT there is good news, losing this game wasn't the death of the Blazers chances.

On the ESPN broadcast they were talking about how if a team wins game 1 they have a 79% chance of winning the series, this is true.

BUT what that doesn't show is actually how that really breaks down. When the Home team wins game 1 they actually have a 91.7% chance of winning the series, THAT IS HUGE. But that is an awfully large number, when we look at what happens when the visitor wins game 1, we find out that the home team still wins 41.7% of the time.

From a statistical standpoint, this game was MUCH more important to the Rockets than the Blazers. Now these numbers are just from the first round of the NBA playoffs, if we expand our sample size of teams winning/losing game 1 in the playoffs we see that if the home team loses game 1, they still win 56.7% of the time, that's more than half the time that the home team loses game 1 they still win the series.

Was this fun: No. Was this encouraging: No. Did the Blazers look like the could even win 1 game this series: No.

But did losing this game cost us the series: NOT AT ALL.

This team has shown maturity beyond their years all season, lets hope they take some lessons from this loss, let it humble them significantly and put a fire in them to prove all the doubters who are bound to come out of the woodwork in the next 3 days, and come out ready to play game 2.

Also forgot to add: my stats came from - http://www.whowins.com/tables/up10.html

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I don't mean to be a Debbie Downer but..

..if there was ever a “Sky is Falling” type of game then this would be it.

Everything that the “matchup” experts predicted came true tonight. Yoa Ming and Aaron Brooks are just nightmares for this team. Battier and Artest are just horrible to deal with. Our bench (a strength of our team) played poorly and its the playoffs (benches dont matter as much).

Go look up the stats when the home team loses by 30 points and tell me what the percentages are.

Stan Van Gundy knows what he’s talking about.

I’m still hopeful that we can make this a series but the sky is definitely falling for Portland.

by TrentEdwardsHoF2018 on Apr 18, 2009 10:11 PM PDT reply actions

Yes because 1 bad game by Portland holds so much more statistical weight than an entire historical sample size

Again, the sky is not falling.

Was this bad, yes. Does this mean Portland can’t win this series, hardly. This series is still very much up for grabs. Portland merely needs to win 1 in Houston and guess what, they regain home court advantage.

Yao and Scola will not shoot 100% from the field again this entire series, book it.

by diskord on Apr 18, 2009 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions

The entire premis of your thread was basing a significant amount of weight on game ones...

Didn’t you lead by saying “On the ESPN broadcast they were talking about how if a team wins game 1 they have a 79% chance of winning the series, this is true.”

Like I said before, I wouldnt be shocked if you looked up the stats of series in which the away team burries the home team by 25 points in game one.

Would anyone be suprised if the away team won the series 80% of the time? If that is the case then you can put a decent amount of “weight” on this game one.

by TrentEdwardsHoF2018 on Apr 18, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Just out of curiousity, when the gas light goes on in your car

Do you immediately sell it assuming the car is permanently broken?

In every thread you are running around claiming how screwed the Blazers are and how they can’t/won’t ever win another game and that we need to start Bayless and a million other cliff jumping knee jerk reactions.

The reason teams that win game one win 79% of the time is because the home teams have a record of 36-12 all time in the preliminary rounds (75%).

And the home teams on average win about 75% of their playoff matchups. The home team is always the team with the better record, so they are the obvious favorites.

The point is that history tells us it is far less devestating for Portland to lose this game than it would be if Houston had lost it.

It’s hard to see in the midst of a 30 point trouncing, but the simple fact is a single loss, no matter the margin of victory, is still just a single loss, and in terms of historical perspective it wasn’t a crushing blow to the Blazers chances of winning this series. In fact had the Blazers won, even tho they were EXPECTED BY EVERYONE to win this game, it would have been a more crushing blow to the Rockets statistical odds of advancing than to the Blazers.

Perspective, it is a healthy thing.

by diskord on Apr 18, 2009 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions

"let it humble them"? Humility's not our problem,

our inability to play playoff-level defense is our problem. I don’t think being humble is going to rectify that.

by howlingfantods on Apr 18, 2009 10:17 PM PDT reply actions

repost from the other thread

You never draw conclusions from one game.

But wow.

Aldridge, Outlaw, Rudy, that was awful.

Roy, stop whining to the refs and be a little tougher.

Oden, you showed up but there were about 3-4 rebounds you could have had but you got outhustled by Mutombo.

Full credit to Houston, but there is no excuse for that effort from Portland. I don’t want to hear any "youth" excuse. Derrick Rose didn’t need experience. Neither did Chris Paul last year. Aaron Brooks looked just fine out there.

Its only one game. Let’s hope game 2 looks completely different.

by jksnake99 on Apr 18, 2009 10:21 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah, but the difference is there was "other" playoff experience in all those other situations

Even Rose and the Baby Bulls have enough vets on that team that have been to the playoffs. NO ONE on the Blazers had ever been to the playoffs in any meaningful manner.

It would be one thing if this was Brandon’s first trip to the dance (which it was, and he played fine) it’s a whole nother deal when it is every player on the roster (significant or otherwise).

I’m not saying youth should be an excuse, but there hasn’t been a team as collectively young as the Blazers in the playoffs in 29 years… this is still a very good, but very young team.

by diskord on Apr 18, 2009 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions

It's the NBA playoffs, not Navy SEALS operations. This experience stuff is pure garbage and a stupid

crutch that fans will use to explain this pathetic performence.

We were just outplayed and outcoached, and didn’t come prepared to play.

by Rudy4three on Apr 18, 2009 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions

That very well may be the case

But much more experienced people than I (almost every professional, media or player) seems to disagree with that sentiment.

by diskord on Apr 18, 2009 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions

I agree with diskord, great comments!

That was tough but Brooks has guys like Battier, Ming, Artest surrounding him not to mention savvy guys like Barry, Mutombo and company. Not the same thing.

This team was beaten really badly tonight… move on. They have showed that they have a lot of character and I think they will have a better showing in the next game. This is a chance for us to grow.

I find it unfortunate that so many fans have a tendency to turn on the players so quickly. Give em a chance. They got it handed to em tonight, there is another game in a few days. Let’s go!

by QuebecBlzrFan on Apr 18, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions

When..

it’s 2009 and your excuse is that the other team had players like Brent Barry it’s a fairly indicting postulation.

"Well, Travis just showed us that we can go to Travis Outlaw." - Nate McMillan

by 12sharks on Apr 18, 2009 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions

I hope Brandon whines MORE

One FT attempt? LMA takes two FT’s as much as he was in the post? Battier gets 6? Artest: Zero personal fouls? Battier: 1? I’d like to see Nate on the court like Popovich, chasing down the refs during timeouts.

But I can live with this loss. I wonder if Yao shoots that well again (and I hope for some more weakside help like when Batum almost got the steal) and Brooks was lights out too. If you followed the Rockets, you know that did not happen that often.

I think a bigger problem is that Yao is able to sag so far off Pryz and Oden, Joel particularly. The middle ends up jammed and we end up outside for contested shots. That’s what I saw the last game in Houston and tonight

"its tough to play with one eye, unless you're a pirate." Delonte West
"una canasta a Pau en la cara" Rudy

by Honka Playboy on Apr 18, 2009 10:53 PM PDT reply actions

yeah I counted

7 seconds one Yao a number of times…

"Death is not final," Gita says. "If any man thinks that he slays, and if another thinks that he is slain, neither knows the truth. The Eternal in man cannot kill: the Eternal in man cannot die. The soul in man is neither born nor does it die. Weapons cannot cut it; fire cannot burn it. .. What makes you think that you can destroy the soul?"

The Bhagavad Gita

by Idog1976 on Apr 18, 2009 11:51 PM PDT up reply actions

A fan under the basket should shout out the seconds (one by one) that Yao is in the key.

Make the refs look stupid.

by parkinglotj on Apr 19, 2009 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions

he's fine according to NBA rules

Section VIII-Defensive Three-Second Rule
a. The count starts when the offensive team is in control of the ball in the front-court.
b. Any defensive player, who is positioned in the 16-foot lane or the area extending 4 feet past the lane endline, must be actively guarding an opponent within three seconds. Actively guarding means being within arms length of an offensive player and in a guarding position.
c. Any defensive player may play any offensive player. The defenders may double-team any player.
d. The defensive three-second count is suspended when: (1) there is a field goal attempt, (2) there is a loss of team control, (3) the defender is actively guarding an opponent or (4) the defender completely clears the 16-foot lane.
e. If the defender is guarding the player with the ball, he may be located in the 16-foot lane. This defender is not required to be in an actively guarding/arms dis-tance position. If another defender actively guards the player with the ball, the original defender must actively guard an opponent or exit the 16-foot lane. Once the offensive player passes the ball, the defender must actively guard an opponent or exit the 16-foot lane.
PENALTY: A technical foul shall be assessed. The offensive team retains pos-session at the free throw line extended. The shot clock shall remain the same as when play was interrupted or reset to 14 seconds, whichever is greater.
[http://www.nba.com/analysis/rules_10.html?nav=ArticleList]

Yao is fine to stay in the lane so long because he constantly reaches out to touch Portland players, thus putting him “within arm’s length of an offensive player.” Watch video of him and you’ll see. That’s why Pryzbilla mentioned how long his arms were in an interview leading up to the game.

by el_flaco on Apr 19, 2009 3:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Learning Curve

The officiating is very different in playoff ball. Apparently our fans have forgotten this as was shown by the “these refs suck” chants—very tacky by the way. NONE of this team has played in a game with the officiating like this. This is why Playoff experience was the goal for this season. This team has shown the ability to adapt and learn quickly. Will it be quick enough to win 4 games in this series against their toughest matchup? We’ll see. But I guarantee you it won’t take six first round series losses for this team to move on to the second third and so on.

Just remember – this was the goal from the beginning! Get to the Playoffs. At the beginning of the season we were wondering if we could be the number eight seed. I think the entire city needed a dose of humility. When you go on a ten game streak, you start to feel invincible. The Fans felt it (just look at the number of people who are already playing Chicken Little. You send the players to a rally that LA wouldn’t do unless they won the Finals. What do you expect 20 year old men to do? They’re only human.

Again – This team adapts and learns quickly so this is not the end my friends. Keep up the Level Headed posts Diskord.

We went like this, he went like that. I say to Hollywood: Where'd he go? Hollywood says: where'd who go?

by Black84GTI on Apr 18, 2009 11:22 PM PDT reply actions

wow

This is what I was thinking,

but you beat me to it.

I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

by haildablazer on Apr 19, 2009 12:10 AM PDT reply actions

I would rather us win the series...

…than merely “play” with the Rockets.

by TrentEdwardsHoF2018 on Apr 19, 2009 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions

We don't need to think about winning the series,

we need to think about how can play with the Houston Rockets.

by Blazin' on Apr 19, 2009 2:14 AM PDT reply actions

NO It came crashing down at the hands of a mighty giant named yao.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Apr 19, 2009 8:18 AM PDT reply actions

of course the "sky is falling" we just had our butts ripped off, dipped in barbecue sauce and offered man parts as appitizers in the event that yao wasn't satisfied...

This one game….

k…one game…THAT MATTERS!!!

for anyone that don’t think it fell……

WAKE UP. Our Team was just embarassed. Punked. Made fools of. Yeah all that. If ya ain’t mad….

I dunno what’s wrong with you.

I fear the next game. yet if it must be played……I hope to god our team remembers this fondelling of our pride.

I mean that too for anyone who’s thinkin the sky’s still up there…. WAKE UP. a giant named yao just came and ripped it out of the space above your head and it is gone.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Apr 19, 2009 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions