Serious Love From Hollinger

by SabonisBonus on Apr 17, 2009 3:03 PM PDT

In his PER Diem for today, ESPN's John Hollinger breaks down how he thinks the playoffs will shake out. And boy did he have some nice things to say about Portland. In a move that almost certifies John has a BE membership, he states:

"I expect the Lakers to advance, thanks to their home-court advantage and the return of Bynum, but this is going to be a much, much tougher series than people think, and I think I might be the only person outside Portland who wouldn't be shocked if the Blazers ended up prevailing."

I know, I know. He's still picking the Lakers (in 7)... but he's not calling it a sure thing. Far from it. He gives the Blazers a 12% chance of winning rings which is a lot more than what most "experts" expect from them.

Hollinger may be a bit too stat oriented (read: blinded) in much of his work and he often is incorrect because of it. But this really is the most reasoned playoff analysis I've come across thus far and I see it playing out much the same way he does (with the Cavs downing LA). As we know, anything can happen in the playoffs and John understands this. Reading this piece, you get the feeling that Mr. Hollinger has that same niggling idea in his head that we BEdgers share: that even though "we aren't supposed to win," we're just gonna'.

Poll

How's Mr. Stat's Analysis?

Dead On Nailed It.

80 votes

This guy's a Shammockery. I'm writing to ESPN to demand his resignation

2 votes

Decent, but I could do better...

9 votes

I don't have time for polls

22 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

All I can say is....."Sham-wow!"

by chnews on Apr 17, 2009 3:12 PM PDT reply actions

Same article, more love

Plenty of people, I’m sure, don’t expect the Lakers to have any problem with the youthful Trail Blazers, if Portland can handle Houston.

So let me throw out these numbers (with the scoring margin adjusted for home and road games):

Team A: 22-8, +7.9 adjusted scoring margin
Team B: 23-7, +6.9 adjusted scoring margin

Team A, as you might have guessed, is Portland since the All-Star break, and Team B is L.A. Over the past two months the Blazers have played at least as well as the Lakers, including beating them twice by a combined 25 points. That comes with a 7-foot asterisk since Andrew Bynum missed much of that time with an injury, but it shows the margin between the teams isn’t nearly as large as people might think.

Or try these: 20, 20, 21, 35, 3, 12, 8, 15, 30 and 28. Those were the Blazers’ margins of victory while taking 10 of their final 11 games. They weren’t just beating teams, folks, they were beating the holy hell out of them. And their road woes ceased late in the year; the Blazers won seven of their final nine road games, and one of the losses was at Cleveland in overtime.

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Apr 17, 2009 3:21 PM PDT reply actions

don't forget outrebounding teams +10 in the last ten or 11 games

by appel82 on Apr 17, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions

The other road loss was to Houston

The Blazers have nothing to be ashamed for in their stretch run to the playoffs as they played spectacularly.

by NWfan on Apr 17, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Weren't we missing LMA or somebody in that Cleveland game?

Our point differential for the last 21 games has spiked to the elite level of +9.8, before that spike the Blazers were starting to separate from the rest of the league and rise to the top. Then we pummeled everybody so severely in the last 10 games that it actually brought our 21 game stats up to elite status.

Hollinger must have took notice.

GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.
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"The rancor reflected in that remark I won't dignify with comment. But I'll address your general attitude of hopeless negativism." – Everett "O Brother, where art Thou?"

by Blazer1342 on Apr 17, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions