A Statistical Breakdown of the Upcoming Series
Pace
Houston plays at roughly an average pace, 90.3 possessions/game (19th most) according to basketball-reference.com. Portland plays at the league's slowest pace, averaging just 86.6 possessions/game.
Offense
Portland comes in as the league's finest offense, scoring 113.9 points per 100 possessions while Houston is the league's 15th best offense, averaging 108.3 points per 100 possessions. Other stat geeks use different methods of determining number of possessions, so these numbers will differ slightly from John Hollinger's numbers, for example (Hollinger's system has Phoenix as this year's best offensive unit).
Going a little deeper into offense with the help of Knickerblogger.net reveals that offensive rebounding has remained a major strength for Portland (tops in the league-- Houston is 17th). In effective field goal %, Portland is 8th and Houston is 13th. Portland does the 12th best job at limiting turnovers while Houston struggles a bit more, with the 20st fewest turnovers on a per possession basis. The teams are roughly equal in terms of drawing and converting FTs, both around the middle of the league (Houston 16th, Portland 17th).
Defense
Houston is the premier defensive team in the Western Conference, holding its opponents to just 103.9 points per 100 possessions, 4th best in the NBA. Portland's defense is ranked 13th (10th according to Hollinger I believe) at 107.8 points/100 possessions. As has been documented by Iverigma2, Portland's defense has been MUCH better over the past 15 games.
Again, going a bit deeper, we find that Houston's defense is not good at forcing TOs (27th in the league) but they more than make up for that by forcing difficult shots (4th best efg% against in the league), keeping teams off the O-glass (4th best in the league), and preventing FTs-- Houston allows the 2nd fewest FTs in the league.
Portland, meanwhile, is about average in efg% allowed (14th), forcing TOs (15th) and preventing FTs (13th). The Blazers do a nice job, however, on the defensive glass-- Portland corrals 75% of available D-rebs, good for 5th in the league.
--Sources-- basketball-reference.com and knickerblogger.net
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Individual Matchups Follow Below
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PG
Aaron Brooks is statistically a mediocre Point Guard. He has a PER of 12.9 and an offensive rating of 105 (both underwhelming figures). Jump Shots make up 72% of his attempts and he shoots the deep ball reasonably well (36.6%). He draws a foul on 6.7% of his shots. His TS% is .521, a respectable figure for a PG. While he does a good job running Houston's offense (its 3.9 points better per 100 poss with him on the court), he appears to hurt their D (its 3.5 points better with him out).
Kyle Lowry has averaged 21.7 minutes per game since joining the Rockets. His numbers have seen an uptick (15.1 PER, .564 TS%, 113 offensive rating with HOU, 14.1 PER, .540 TS%, 107 offensive rating with MEM). Lowry takes fewer jumpers-- they are just 55% of his offense and he draws more fouls (15.7% of his attempts). Houston's D has been good with him in (3.7 points better) but the O has struggled (-5.1).
Steve Blake has had his finest year as a pro (his next best statistical season came during the woeful 21 win Blazer season). Blake has a PER of 14.5, a healthy TS% of .557 and an offensive rating of 118-- in short, he's been a very efficient spot up shooter for Portland. Blake gets more assists (pace and playing time adjusted) than Brooks, but slightly fewer than Lowry. Jumpers are 88% of Blake's offense and he gets fouled on just 2.3% of his shots. Portland's offense hums with him on the court (+7.5) and the D is 0.5 points/100 possessions worse.
Sergio Rodriguez is an elite passer- he's among the leaders (8th to be exact) in assists (once you adjust for pace and playing time-- Rodriguez led this category for about half the season). Rodriguez struggles in much of the rest of the game though. Rodriguez has a PER of 12.5, an ugly TS% of .491 and a poor offensive rating of 103. Rodriguez takes jumpers for 70% of his attempts and gets fouled on 7.6% of his FG attempts. Sergio's raw plus/minus numbers are ugly-- the offense is 7.9 points/100 poss worse with him in and the D is 0.9 worse.
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SG
The one true SG who plays big minutes for Houston is Von Wafer. Wafer has played 1225 minutes this season-- and prior to this season he had totaled 228 for his career. Wafer has had himself a very nice season-- 14.7 PER, .541 TS%, 106 offensive rating. Wafer's basically a scorer-- he doesn't rebound much and he gets nearly as many TOs as assists. Jumpers are 70% of his shots. As might be expected Houston is better on offense (+2.0) and worse on D (-1.2) with him in.
Brandon Roy is good. He finished the year with a PER in excess of 24 (good for 7th in the league). I don't think I need to say much more, but I will. His TO rate is amazing for a guy with his usage rate and assist rate-- he's more trustworthy with the ball than most PGs. Jumpers are 66% of his offense, he gets fouled on 13.8% of his shots and Portland is a little better on D (+.5) and *way* better on O (+9.3) with him in. He'll face some elite defenders in this series, but wow what a season for Roy.
Rudy Fernandez had himself a heck of a rookie year. PER is 15.4, TS% is a healthy .588. When Rudy shoots, the Blazers get points. Its pretty much that simple. Jumpers are (not surprisingly) 84% of his offense. Portland (somewhat surprisingly) is 2.8 points worse/100 poss on O with him in and 1.5 pts/100 better on D. Of course, these +/- stats have a lot to do with who else is in the game with him.
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SF
Ron Artest has a deserved reputation as an elite defender. Houston's already excellent D is 4.7 points/100 poss better with him in. Offensively, Artest's shots are 76% jumpers and he has a woeful .238 efg% on these shots. However, Artest draws a foul on a healthy 11.3% of his shots. Portland wants this guy shooting jumpers-- he's about 40% on threes but he shoots a lot of long twos also and does not make them. Artest is 2nd behind Lowry in assists/game among healthy current Rockets and he's a good rebounder as well. Overall, his PER is a solid 15.6.
Shane "The No Stats All-Star" Battier is another outstanding defender, though his effect on the raw +/- numbers isn't as strong (just 1.6 better/100 poss). Battier takes a lot of corner 3s-- jumpers are 79% of his offense and he shoots an excellent .529 TS% on them. Because he doesn't rebound or get assists like Artest, his PER is only 10.6, but as we know, this woefully underestimates his value-- Battier is one of the smartest two way players in the game.
Nicolas Batum has excited the fans with defense, but he also seems to fit quite well with the offense-- Portland is 5.2 points/100 poss better on O with him in and just 0.3 points/100 better on D. Nic shoots jumpers for 66% of his offense. His TS% is a solid .555. He is already comparable to Battier and Artest in terms of steals and blocks, but is not as good a rebounder (or subjectively, as good a man to man defender) as those guys. Still, somewhat of a revelation this year for Portland.
Travis Outlaw takes a ton of "bad shots"-- 88% of his shots are jumpers, many of them long two pointers. His TS% is a decent .541 but you wonder how high it would be if he shot more 3s and fewer 2s with his foot on the line. Travis rebounds about as well as Nic but Nic has him beat in most aspects of the game-- ast%, turnover%, blk%, stl%, etc. Outlaw is still a guy many teams would love to have as a scoring option off their bench. Portland, however, is 4.2 points worse on O and 2.0 points worse on D/100 poss with him in.
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PF
Luis Scola has a diverse offensive game. He shoots jumpers on just 47% of his shots and draws fouls on 12.5% of his shots. His TS% is an efficient .572. He has a very solid PER of 17.0. Houston is slightly better on O and slightly worse on D with him in, no doubt in part due to who his backups are.
Carl Landy is a "Maxsap." He rebounds well, defends well and scores exceedingly efficiently on garbage buckets (TS%=.634). Need to keep him off the glass. His on/off court numbers aren't very good though-- the team is over 4 pts/100 poss worse with him in.
Chuck Hayes was mentioned in a recent Bill Simmons column-- Simmons asked Rockets GM Darryl Morey why there wasn't a stat called "stops" and got the response "why do you think we have Chuck Hayes?" Chuck Hayes can flat out play D. He's a woeful player on offense though (PER=7.8-- that's sub-Bayless territory). For the season, Houston is a point better/100 poss on D but a whopping 8.1 pts/100 worse on O with him in the game. If LMA starts going off on Scola though, look for a healthy dose of Hayes.
LaMarcus Aldridge came on after the allstar break to post a very nice PER of 19.1 with a much-improved TS% of .529 (still could use some work there though). He has an amazingly low TO rate for a big man. He's improved his foul drawing rate and rebounding, but is still mediocre for a big man in those areas. Still a nice season for Aldridge. His raw +/- stats look awesome (+8.6 on O and he improves the D by 1.6). That could be partly a function of who backs him up though. I don't expect much Channing in this series, so let's move on.
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C
Yao Ming is a large man. He's also extremely efficient (PER=22.8, TS%=.618, offensive rating=114). He doesn't rebound as well as the Blazer big men but he's not bad (though given his height he probobly should be better). Not much more to say about him-- he's a very tough matchup who seems to do best against big traditional Centers. Houston is 5.6 pts/100 better on O and 5.4 pts/100 better on D with him in... so he's pretty important.
Joel Przybilla is the game's premier defensive rebounder and overall rebounder. He's also had a very efficient season scoring the basketball-- one of the league leaders in TS% at .652. He has a solid PER of 15.4 that underrates his impact. Portland is 4.9 points/100 worse on O but a whopping 10.1 pts/100 better on D with him in.
Greg Oden is the NBA's premier offensive rebounder. He's also an efficient scorer (TS%=.599). This "massive disappointment" was 2nd among all rookies with an 18.1 PER. The guy has been productive when on the court. Portland is 5.8 points/100 better on O with him in but 3.4 points/100 worse on D (Oden is probobly hurt here by how good Joel is on D).
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Prediction
I'm guessing the most common stat geek pick when TrueHoop does its "Stat Geek Smackdown" will be Portland in 7, and that's my pick as well. Portland's +6.1 efficiency differential is 5th in the league. Houston's +4.4 mark is 6th best. So, its a shame these two teams have to play in round 1, but statistically Portland has a modest but significant edge. After Portland in 7, I would say the 2nd most likely result is a tossup between Houston in 6 and Portland in 5.
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Whoo. That's it for now. Some edits and maybe some more content later.
Sources: basketball-reference.com (for PER, TS%, O-rating) and 82games.com (for raw +/-, % of shots that are jumpers and foul drawing rate).
31 recs |
57 comments
Comments
rec
i know you’re stuff is gonna be good, I rec it before I read it.
I can always take it back if I’m wrong…
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Apr 16, 2009 11:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't wrong
great stuff
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Apr 16, 2009 11:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where did you get the 86.4% D-rebounding rate for Portland?
Shouldn’t it be 75%?
by trk on Apr 16, 2009 11:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
you are correct-- I am not sure how I made this mistake. Correction made. I'll also add links to my sources--
Knickerblogger.net, 82games.com and basketball-reference.
by jksnake99 on Apr 16, 2009 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is one reason i love BE
Posters who post all these facts, and others with the knowledge and desire to check them.
The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.
by ratbastird on Apr 17, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rec!
Great, insightful and excellent information to analyze. Good work!
by blazerbeliever97504 on Apr 16, 2009 11:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great post
Logical, easy to read breakdown.
draft dejuan blair
by Cablinasian on Apr 16, 2009 11:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
recent statistical breakdown
great job as usual, jksnake99..
but shouldn’t we also focus on recent stats, like in the last month? The Blazers have stepped up their game big time while Houston just lost a game they were trying to win. So maybe we should count recent statistics more heavily than earlier in the season.
A counter argument against what I’m saying is that a recent statistic is the fact that Houston just beat the Blazers. I guess I’m just trying to figure things out while sitting on the edge of my seat waiting for the game.
by jayfisher on Apr 17, 2009 12:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree on this one
I’d like to see how the last 25% translate.
The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.
by ratbastird on Apr 17, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
not exactly the same
but Hollinger’s Power rankings put a lot of emphasis on the previous 10 games. Which is why we are ranked really high.
The most hated Blazer is like the least hottest supermodel - Sabonis4Ever
by Philthyanimal on Apr 17, 2009 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good job.
So… if Portland is a top 10 defensive team in the league (according to Hollinger) then I guess we can go ahead and all admit that Nate McMillan is a good defensive coach.
When I came here (in 2004), guys like Nick (Van Exel) and Damon, they were a breath of fresh air for me,'' Przybilla
by Nick Van Excellent on Apr 17, 2009 12:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Top four
the last some odd games.
The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.
by ratbastird on Apr 17, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice stuff as usual.
Now I hope the rest of the league will see how much of a “massive disappointment” Greg iswhen his physicality is allowed in the playoffs .
Do not let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do.
-John Wooden
If you train hard, you'll not only be hard, you'll be hard to beat.
-Herschel Walker
Go Blazerss!!! Playoff time!
by DaNoose on Apr 17, 2009 12:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully it won't be hampered by Yao.
Smart offensive centers seem to puzzle Oden a little.
Brandon "The Royal" Roy or "Royal 7". What ever sticks.
by dpnim on Apr 17, 2009 1:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and Siberia is kind of cold
The Michael Ruffin of BlazersEdge, cuz Amlmart said so.
by BlazersOrBust on Apr 17, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And bears....well, you know
"Estos tíos están locos"- Rudy Fernandez
by cafe_civet on Apr 17, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well done, my friend. Well done.
Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
http://www.myspace.com/y5k
by Y5k on Apr 17, 2009 12:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
WOW
We had been around 18-20th in Hollingers Team Defensive efficiency until at least early march—to go to 10th is absolutely INCREDIBLE rise. They have put it together defensively in a big way over the last month.
by TimG on Apr 17, 2009 1:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the keys to a Blazer series win are
1. Limiting Yao.
He is their only consistent offensive threat. It seems that fronting him and denying the ball is fairly effective. The Rockets seem completely content with taking jumpers when they aren’t going to Yao. Plus, their average offense won’t be able to deal with a lack of post scoring from the big man.
2. Guys other than Roy and Aldridge stepping up.
Brandon isn’t going to be the same going up against Artest and Battier. Aldridge will have to deal with the more than capable Scola and the pesky defense of Hays. Blake, Outlaw, and Rudy all have to be hitting shots to keep the Rocket’s defense honest. It doesn’t have to be the WHOLE bench like the Denver game, but the team cannot depend solely on Roy and Aldridge and expect to win. Oden could be a huge x-factor.
3. Play hard.
This is an bland umbrella statement, but let me elaborate. The Rockets play physical, they hustle, they play with energy. If the Blazers play without energy and let the Rocket forwards (Battier, Artest, Scola, Landry, Hays) outwork them it’s going to be a short series. I want to see guys diving for loose balls, boxing out and bodying up on defense.
4. Ball/Player Movement
I know I am not the only person to notice this: The Blazer offense is far more potent when there is plenty of passing and movement without the ball. This is even more crucial against a great defense. The Blazers will get eaten alive if they try to isolate on too many plays. A corollary to this point is the 20 second rule. The Blazers must never walk the ball up the court and give the Rockets a chance to set their defense. Case in point: Roy’s sick ankle breaking turnaround jumper in the first rocket game that sent two players to the floor.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
by Magnum on Apr 17, 2009 1:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Fantastic read
always look for your posts
I miss Martell. Come back soon!
by mannyfresh1 on Apr 17, 2009 1:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great write up
Like we’ve discussed, this is the matchup we least wanted (aside from the Lakers, though at least we whipped ’em at home while it took a miracle shot from Roy to steal 1 against these Rockettes). This will be a huge test for our entire team— can we win our first playoff series against a team that we know can truly defend Roy at an elite level?
LMA, Oden, Blake especially, Rudy, all gotta step up. Roy will be doubled, manhandled, and Artest and Battier will make the most of their defensive rep to get the benefit of the doubt from the refs. It’ll be tough on Roy, and his co-stars gotta be ready. I fully believe that Roy is 100% made for the playoffs and his true specialness will be shown to the world on this stage, but he’s still going up against Artest and Battier. There is not a worse defensive matchup for him in the entire league.
It’s going to be tough.
That said, we can win.
I know I see Rockette fans (side note: if you feminize the other team’s name, it gives you a better chance at winning the series. Run the numbers, it’s true) say Yao does better against traditional bigs, but unless my memory fails me Yao hasn’t ever done that well against us. I think he does better against traditional guys usually (the pesky swarming Golden State-on-Dirk-style bugs him but not consistently), but he doesn’t do as well against TOUGHNESS. Even though he has made great strides in this part of his game since coming over from China, Yao is still soft. You put up resistance to him, like Joel and Oden have and will, and Yao goes for the turnaround.
It’s sorta LMA-esque… instead of facing the tough defense with toughness of his own, Yao will start fading away and wilting under the muscle. LMA has gotten better at this recently, but he’ll still forget you gotta fight back and start fadin’. That isn’t good, but it’s not as bad in our secondary scorer. For the Rockette’s, Yao’s habit of not handling that sort of defense well is MUCH more troublesome.
Artest is a guy that, before the season started, I hoped wouldn’t get traded to someone like the Lakers because I liked how we matched up otherwise— Artest just creates a mismatch we have no answer for. Lucky for us, Artest is a very dumb offensive player who greatly overrates his talent level. We gotta give him that jumper and make him think he has to be The Man. We do that, and his bad offense will counter his great defense all on its own.
Their defense is stifling, but our offense has been uplifting and the sort of offense that is good against anyone… provided the outside jumpers are hitting. We aren’t anywhere close to as good defensively, but we’re closer defensively to them they they are to us offensively. They get in offensive ruts that can make our defense look better than it is, and they don’t have a Brandon Roy they can turn to and take over. Yao is not that sort of player and we WANT Artest to think he is that guy. In the playoffs (and it might sound like false common wisdom), that does matter.
Man, I can’t wait. I didn’t want the damn Rockettes, but beating them will be a true test and I know we can take ’em. After the last game (a loss), Roy said he knows how to play and win against them for the next time we play them. I hope he was being honest.
Great write up, Jake.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on Apr 17, 2009 3:30 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
This should have been a fanpost
;-)
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on Apr 17, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I assume the LMA numbers were for the whole year?
The Blazers have been at the top of nearly every category for the last 10-12 games. I would imagine that would translate into some awesome PER’s for several players for that same time period.
GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The rancor reflected in that remark I won't dignify with comment. But I'll address your general attitude of hopeless negativism." – Everett "O Brother, where art Thou?"
by Blazer1342 on Apr 17, 2009 5:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
As a Rockets fan..
who has seen Artest play many times (this season mind you) I’d like to point out that he is actually GOOD from long 2’s (like a step or 2 inside the 3-point line). It’s quite puzzling actually.
Other than that one small detail, very solid and accurate analysis. Cheers and good luck in the series!
by Artest4Prez on Apr 17, 2009 7:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
well
Artest is shooting 40% from the floor and has a TS mark of 51.2%. I’m fine with him shooting, as compared to Yao posting up or Battier getting open looks.
draft dejuan blair
by Cablinasian on Apr 17, 2009 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ron Artest is just 34.3% on mid-range jump shots -- which make up 37% of his shot attempts -- thus, ...
it’s clearly obvious that the statistical analysis doesn’t support your erroneous claim. As a matter of fact, Artest is better from both beyond the arc and at close range — with field-goal percentages of 39.9% and 48.7%, respectively — so let’s hope that he takes your ill-advised suggestion of tossing up 20-foot bricks.
by AK1984 on Apr 17, 2009 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't get me wrong..
I’d much prefer that he:
A.) Drive to the basket or back down a smaller defender
or
B.) take a decent 3-point attempt – rather than jack up off balance 3’s off a screen like he LOVES to do.
but, that said based on the games I’ve viewed (probably about 40-50ish Rockets game this year) I’d say that he’s better off taking a 20 footer than a 17 or 18 footer.
Yes, I know this makes no sense but I’ve seen him make those 20 footers much more often. Now it’s entirely possible that I’ve seen him on his good nights shooting from there but I’d like to think I’ve seen enough of Artest’s game to make that statement confidently.
by Artest4Prez on Apr 17, 2009 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Human memory is terrible and biased
When the numbers of his shooting % disagree with you, they disagree with you.
After TWO games are played, there are only a handful of people in the world who could remember all 20 shots that a player took in those two games, where they took them from, and how many they made from each spot.
Doing that for 40-50 games is impossible. Could you be right? Of course, but your chance of being wrong is extremely high. Now if you look at a shot chart to see a players percentage from each spot, you will be right 100% of the time if the chart is.
Which one do you think has more validity?
by Zaig on Apr 17, 2009 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe many Houston fans' view of Ron Artest is similar to many Portland fans' view of ...
Travis Outlaw, since whenever they somehow magically drain a terrible shot attempt it causes everyone to go crazy with joy. What such fans forget to remember, however, is that a majority of the time those same terrible shot attemps clank off of the rim.
by AK1984 on Apr 17, 2009 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even better example
is the highlight video of all the Jordan misses.
“Wait, you mean he wasn’t perfect?”
The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.
by ratbastird on Apr 17, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even better is Kobe Bryant
Since he is actually WORSE in the clutch than the average player.
by Zaig on Apr 17, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What are you talking about
TNT, ESPN, SI all said he is a great clutch player.
You are so wrong I can’t even believe it. My balls hurt, you’re so wrong.
WHY WOULD TNT, ESPN, AND SI ALL SAY HE IS THE BEST CLUTCH PLAYER IF IT WASN’T SO?!
They would get sued and have to close shop if they lied like that, or were somehow too lazy to know whether it was true or not. It makes no sense.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on Apr 17, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your balls hurt because you have an anvil on your lap
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Apr 17, 2009 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um, Kobe is a very good clutch player, and one of the best.
82games.com has the clutch and super-clutch stats. Kobe is near or at the top.
by TimG on Apr 17, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some "clutch" statistics
are based merely on gross amount of points scored in the last X amount of minutes. This is far too general and broad.
Take a look at the link below:
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-38-139/One-Shot—with-the-Game-on-the-Line.html
"Respect everyone, fear no one." -TP
by Arby on Apr 17, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what do you mean by good
I think the old adage “the lowest percentage 2 pt field goal is a foot on the line 3” (a bit wordy, but hopefully you get the idea.) still holds. In this example Artest shoots about 40% from 3, which is very good, but if he was shooting that from inside the arc, you would say that is horrible, and that is essentially what he is doing with long 2s.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
by jonestr on Apr 17, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am pretty new here, but I have learned to watch for your posts, among a few other quality posters here.
Good info, nice work. rec
It's spelled "PRZYBILLA."
vanillathrillagorillaprzybilla
by RenoBlazerFan on Apr 17, 2009 7:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great work again JSnake!
I’m thinking the negative X-factor for the young, inexperienced Blazers in this series is going to be nerves (and I doubt there are any stats to predict their affect). I’m guessing only 3 players are likely to handle the pressure well. Roy, because he is Roy … cool, collected and under control, Travis because he doesn’t seem to have a concept of what pressure is and Rudy because of all the big games he has played in.
I don’t look for the rest of the team to be playing at their recent level - at least for the first couple games.
My prediction is Rockets in 5 or 6. Fortunately a number of my predictions are affected by the anxiety of wanting to win so badly and tend to be on the pessimistic side.
Here’s a more optimistic prediction: Next season, assuming Oden stays healthy enough to develop his game, the Blazers are going to win all the marbles.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
by TwoDeep on Apr 17, 2009 9:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
good post
While I would initially be disappointed losing in 6 games to the Rockets, after a few days I would again revert to seeing the bigger picture. This season was all about continuing to develop our core, getting to the playoffs, competing there, and gettting some valuable experience and evaluations on that level. As long as we are competive in this series, this season has been wildly successful and something to build on for next year.
That said, I think this is a true tossuup series. Matchup wise, Houston is one of the worst draws for us, as they have strengths that tend to negate many of our strengths. The series will be decided I think by:
1) How much Yao dominates. Does he get a lot of calls and get to the line? Do the refs let Portland bang on him? Can he put up a string of big games? Can Portland get HIM in foul trouble? What’s up with the leg?
2) Can Roy be Roy? If Artest and Battier can limit and frustrate him, Houston has a great great chance. If he can figure them out a bit, score when he needs to at a decent percentage, get to the line, and limit his turnovers, then Portland will be in good shape. Are the refs going to let Houston batter him around?
3) The benches. Both teams have good, but somewhat inconsistent benches. Which one steps up in key moments or plays more consistently could very well decide the outcome.
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Apr 17, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this will be a battle of coaches
as much as any player matchup issue may change the series. Adelman vs McMillian, who can figure out a way to neutralize a significant part of the other team. I think McMillian’s longer bench and array of unique roll players is going to allow him to out match-up adelman and the blazers will take the series.
by lurtsman on Apr 17, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta agree
the nerves are what has me the most nervous. Nerves in the first game could cost it, and then the blazers have an uphill battle. they’ve shown they can handle the pressure, so here’s hoping that stays true.
The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.
by ratbastird on Apr 17, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
See, I think
the opposite is true — Houston is the team with all the pressure IMO. They’re the ones with the reputation of wilting year after year in the first round. The Garden is going to be absolutely insane in Game 1 and I think we’ll come out and ride that wave of energy. I feel very good about how we’ll play our first two games.
The Michael Ruffin of BlazersEdge, cuz Amlmart said so.
by BlazersOrBust on Apr 17, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Houston in five???
You think Houston is going to win 2 out of 3 games in Portland? I could see them stealing one, but we have one of th ebest homecourt advantages in the league… Houston in five is incredibly unlikely.
by TimG on Apr 17, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
rec
But I like to be here. Oh, I like it a lot! Said the Cat in the Hat. To the fish in the pot.
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Apr 17, 2009 10:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
snake...
the statgeek predictions are up.
5 of 8 took Portland in 7, 2 took Portland in 6, and 1 took Houston in 6.
The one? Portland VERY OWN Jeffry Ma!!!
But I like to be here. Oh, I like it a lot! Said the Cat in the Hat. To the fish in the pot.
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Apr 17, 2009 11:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
funny side note...
the guy whose won the last two years, Justin Kubatko… CURRENTLY EMPLOYED BY OUR PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS!!!
But I like to be here. Oh, I like it a lot! Said the Cat in the Hat. To the fish in the pot.
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Apr 17, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
does Ma still work for Portland?
I know Kubatko does now, but I’m not sure Ma still consults with the team.
by jksnake99 on Apr 17, 2009 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
KP told him to do so to give the Rockettes false hope
Greg Oden = Robert Parish (HOF, 4x NBA champion, 9x NBA All-Star). The only other rookie with more than 500 points, 400 rebounds, and 65 blocks in under 1400 minutes played. Since 1946.
by Norsktroll on Apr 17, 2009 8:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks jksnake99
Excellent reading material. – Elgin
Tonight felt like the day you open the mail and receive an acceptance letter to your dream school: the University of Playoffs. - Ben Golliver, Apr 15 2009
by 22baylor on Apr 17, 2009 12:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow
This is a cyberassault of awesomeness.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on Apr 17, 2009 1:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Fast Break points
Houston is #30(dead last) in the NBA at getting fast break points with 8.7 per game, while Portland is #1 in the NBA at not allowing the other team to get fast break point (10.0 fast break points allowed per game). Don’t expect Houston to get many fast break points.
Portland is #29(last except for Houston) in the NBA in fast break points with 9.1 per game. Houston is #12 in allowing fast breaks with 11.6 fast break points allowed per game. Portland won’t get many fast breaks either (though more than Houston). Expect a very slow paced half-court oriented series.
by trk on Apr 17, 2009 3:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
great post
puts numbers on what a lot of us have been thinking recently.
i think the blazers are going to take this series in 6, and heres why.
unselfishness & ball movement: the blazers move the ball a lot better and are willing to make the extra pass, the rockets have long long stretches where yao does not touch the ball, despite the fact that their offense is designed for inside out with him. mind boggling.
rebounding: the rockets cannot bully the blazers like they do some teams, the blazers match them or exceed them in boards, and in fact the rockets will have to concentrate more on defensive % since the blazers get so many offensive boards. this will limit their occasional fast break points as long as the blazer guards get back on D.
playmakers: the blazers have many more players that can make plays when needed. when the series gets to game 3 or more, when both teams know each others playbook, people who can make plays and create stuff are extremely valuable, and the blazers have more. in fact i can see the rockets struggle to create offense if the blazers limit yao.
pace changeup: the blazers have a first unit who will kill u in the half court, but a bench that can run all day, the rockets are generally a team that plays the same way all the time. a running pace change up from our second unit will unsettle them.
by Yawnie on Apr 17, 2009 7:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
also
who wants to put a number on yaos chances of injury, considering he was listed as day to day recently?
by Yawnie on Apr 17, 2009 8:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Eat the head! Some more stats I looked at for Roy, LaMarcus and Yao
Brandon and Artest have played 9 times against each other since Roy entered the league. Artest wins that matchup so far. He held Roy to a FG% of just 41% (Ron 51%) and an abysmal 27% three point percentage. Roy averaged 17.4 points per game against him, more than 2 points below his career average (and 1.5 ppg below what Artest scored). He turned the ball over about once more than usual. However he didn’t have a negative influence on Roy’s rebounds and assists.
Roy also played against Battier 9 times so far. I would say Roy wins that one. Battier held him to 46% on field goals which is Roy’s career average anyway, and 30% on threes (36% career). He had a somewhat negative influence on his rebounds and assists (ca. minus 1) His turnovers were slightly higher than usually at 2.2, but not dramatically. He outscored Battier by 10 points per game. Woot!
LaMarcus owned Scola in the seven games they played. About all numbers for LMA are higher than his career averages while Scola is slightly below his. 21.3 ppg (5 above his career) against 10.7 ppg. But of course the Rockets can throw multiple good defensive power forwards at LaMarcus, while we can only hope he is effective since his backups likely won’t do much damage.
Yao has a monster season (since finally he is pretty healthy again like in his first three seasons). He and Dwight Howare are the only players this year with more than 1500 points, 700 rebounds, 400 free throw attempts and 150 blocks. (The scary thing is that Howard has in fact over 800 FTAs, only he sucks at the line). This has been achieved less than a hundred times in NBA history (some players multiple seasons). How the Blazers can contain him without sending him to the line all the time where he shoots above 85% (Nowitzki territory) is the big riddle Nate has to solve.
Greg Oden = Robert Parish (HOF, 4x NBA champion, 9x NBA All-Star). The only other rookie with more than 500 points, 400 rebounds, and 65 blocks in under 1400 minutes played. Since 1946.
by Norsktroll on Apr 17, 2009 8:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
One more thing: Joel has not been the most effective Yao stopper so far
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=hwyDy
16 games against each other in their careers, and Yao is one point above his career average in ppg shooting 2% better than usual. Only his rebounding is worse by about 1.
Greg Oden = Robert Parish (HOF, 4x NBA champion, 9x NBA All-Star). The only other rookie with more than 500 points, 400 rebounds, and 65 blocks in under 1400 minutes played. Since 1946.
by Norsktroll on Apr 17, 2009 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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