Dedicated readers of my projections already know this, but both Porland (63 percent accuscore projections) and San Antonio (70 percent Accuscore projection) are favored tonight, while Houston (40 percent Accuscore projection) is not.

Most of the projections so far have been based on 50/50 possibilities.  I wanted to take the likely outcome of each game (based on statistical predictions from Accuscore), and see what the likely outcomes are tonight, given the expected likelihood of each team winning or losing its game.  I am ignoring the fact that if Houston loses, it ups the likelihood that Denver doesn't care about the game, but that would make a better chance that Portland wins, so these are the worst possible percentages for the Blazers, based on reliable predictive models:

Chances for outcomes of Houston/San Antonio games:

42 percent chance that San Antonio wins and Houston loses

28 percent chance that both Houston and San Antonio win

18 percent chance that both Houston and San Antonio lose

12 percent chance that Houston wins and San Antonio loses

Extrapolating that to the Portland game (admitting that a Houston loss probably makes it even more likely that the Blazers win, because Denver clinches the second seed and doesn't care, but ignoring that for purposes of this analysis):

Chances for outcomes of all three games:

26.46 percent chance that SA wins/HOU loses, POR wins (4 seed, POR vs. HOU)

17.64 percent chance that all teams win (4 seed, Portland vs. SA)

15.54 percent chance that SA wins/HOU loses, POR loses (5 seed, POR @ HOU)

11.34 percent chance that HOU/SA lose, POR wins (3 seed, POR vs. NO)

10.36 chance that HOU/SA win, POR loses (5 seed, POR @ SA)

7.56 percent chance that HOU wins/SA loses, POR wins (4 seed, POR vs. SA)

6.66 percent chance that HOU/SA lose, POR loses (4 seed, POR vs. SA)

4.44 percent chance that HOU wins/SA loses, POR loses (4 seed, POR vs. SA)

Totalling them all up, given the predictions for how the games come out (instead of the 50/50 predictions that were made yesterday:

Portland's chances for playoff seeding outcomes are:

Seed/Team

36.30 percent chance of earning the 4 seed and playing San Antonio

26.46 percent chance of earning the 4 seed and playing Houston

15.54 percent chance of earning the 5 seed and playing Houston

11.34 percent chance of earning the 3 seed and playing New Orleans

10.36 percent chance of earning the 5 seed and playing San Antonio

Seed Only (74.1 percent chance of homecourt advantage)

62.76 percent chance of 4 seed

25.90 percent chance of 5 seed

11.34 percent chance of 3 seed

Opponent Only

46.66 percent chance of playing San Antonio

42 percent chance of playing Houston

11.34 percent chance of playing New Orleans