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QUASI-Taking Care of Business Update - Tax Day Edition (ALL THE PROJECTIONS for Playoff possibilites, based on Accuscore)

Dedicated readers of my projections already know this, but both Porland (63 percent accuscore projections) and San Antonio (70 percent Accuscore projection) are favored tonight, while Houston (40 percent Accuscore projection) is not.

Most of the projections so far have been based on 50/50 possibilities.  I wanted to take the likely outcome of each game (based on statistical predictions from Accuscore), and see what the likely outcomes are tonight, given the expected likelihood of each team winning or losing its game.  I am ignoring the fact that if Houston loses, it ups the likelihood that Denver doesn't care about the game, but that would make a better chance that Portland wins, so these are the worst possible percentages for the Blazers, based on reliable predictive models:

 

Chances for outcomes of Houston/San Antonio games:

42 percent chance that San Antonio wins and Houston loses

28 percent chance that both Houston and San Antonio win

18 percent chance that both Houston and San Antonio lose

12 percent chance that Houston wins and San Antonio loses

 

Extrapolating that to the Portland game (admitting that a Houston loss probably makes it even more likely that the Blazers win, because Denver clinches the second seed and doesn't care, but ignoring that for purposes of this analysis):

 

Chances for outcomes of all three games:

26.46 percent chance that SA wins/HOU loses, POR wins (4 seed, POR vs. HOU)

17.64 percent chance that all teams win (4 seed, Portland vs. SA)

15.54 percent chance that SA wins/HOU loses, POR loses (5 seed, POR @ HOU)

11.34 percent chance that HOU/SA lose, POR wins (3 seed, POR vs. NO)

10.36 chance that HOU/SA win, POR loses (5 seed, POR @ SA)

7.56 percent chance that HOU wins/SA loses, POR wins (4 seed, POR vs. SA)

6.66 percent chance that HOU/SA lose, POR loses (4 seed, POR vs. SA)

4.44 percent chance that HOU wins/SA loses, POR loses (4 seed, POR vs. SA)

 

Totalling them all up, given the predictions for how the games come out (instead of the 50/50 predictions that were made yesterday:

 

Portland's chances for playoff seeding outcomes are:

 

Seed/Team

36.30 percent chance of earning the 4 seed and playing San Antonio

26.46 percent chance of earning the 4 seed and playing Houston

15.54 percent chance of earning the 5 seed and playing Houston

11.34 percent chance of earning the 3 seed and playing New Orleans

10.36 percent chance of earning the 5 seed and playing San Antonio

 

Seed Only (74.1 percent chance of homecourt advantage)

62.76 percent chance of 4 seed

25.90 percent chance of 5 seed

11.34 percent chance of 3 seed

 

Opponent Only

46.66 percent chance of playing San Antonio

42 percent chance of playing Houston

11.34 percent chance of playing New Orleans

5 recs  |  Comment 12 comments

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Thanks! Great Post.

I have been doing ball park estimates, my coworkers are saying things like “we’ve got a 4 in 8 chance at homecourt against SA” and it is frustrating because, to me, the most likely scenario is a Houston loss, a SA win, and a portland win, which would put us with homecourt but against SA, so I have been trying to argue that the likelihood of portland with homecourt against SA is closer to 1 in 3 or so.

This breakdown proves the point: these are not 50/50 propositions… but, it is encouraging to see the numbers laid out based onreasonable projections and still see that Portland with homecourt against SA is still the most likely outcome—whereas I had been guessing that homecourt vs Houston is most likely. Nice work.

by TimG on Apr 15, 2009 1:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Does acuscore allow you

to simulate the playoffs? That would be interesting.

by usmcr3049 on Apr 15, 2009 1:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

probably, though it is usually game by game, I think

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Apr 15, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

so basically

58% we don’t play Houston, which is what I want to happen

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Apr 15, 2009 1:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

So.... what you're saying is there's a chance?!

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Apr 15, 2009 1:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

and slightly better than one in a million, Lloyd!

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Apr 15, 2009 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is all messed up because we are gonna win tonight!

but the figures on Houston and SA are interesting… though I don’t trust them because later they insinuate that we could lose!

Seriously though, thanks for the post. Games will be very exciting tonight… can’t wait to see what all happens in TX and for the real fun to start!

by QuebecBlzrFan on Apr 15, 2009 4:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll take the 11.34% chance of

getting the 3rd seed and playing New Orleans

by RipCityRoyCity on Apr 15, 2009 5:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

wow so that worked out exactly where the money was

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Apr 15, 2009 10:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

and i mean for the outcomes for the night btw--not who we're playing

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Apr 15, 2009 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

but now imagine if Finley's 3 was taken away. They scraped by the last 2 games.

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Apr 15, 2009 10:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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